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RB Nick Chubb, CLE (4 Viewers)

GawainB said:
Something I didn't mention wherever else it was that I was ruminating on Chubb's chances this year...

His outlook for 2018 turns a lot rosier IF Tyrod can hold off Mayfield for a while (or, if Mayfield "fails to push Tyrod" for a while).

Mayfield is going to need his backfield to offer him a lot of help both in terms of pass outlets and blocking assistance.  He's a rookie QB, without great arm strength, without great escapability, and without a stalwart at LT.  Those things suggest to me very strongly that the Browns will be hesitant to put him out there very often with a back who's a net minus in the passing game.  And right now, Chubb is.

Tyrod has a lot more native escapability than Mayfield.  He can create time for plays to develop downfield, even when pressured, and isn't going to be as reliant on his backs to keep him alive in the pocket.  So they're more likely to excel on offense if they've got their best pure runner out there with him.  Now, I don't know that Chubb will be their best pure runner, because Hyde is no slouch (except healthwise), but if you believe in his talent on that front, you probably want Tyrod in command for as much of 2018 as possible.
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Did Mayfield kick your dog or something?

 
Andy Dufresne said:
Dude joined last week and about 98% of what he's posted is about how bad Mayfield is.
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He’s got to be a troll.  No one could unintentionally post so much that is so wrong in such a short time.  I’ve pretty much decided not to feed the troll.

 
I like Chubb quite a bit, but I do think Hyde is being cast aside a little too easily by the masses.

He was also a second round pick and has looked extremely good when healthy. Health has been an issue however. I think Chubb owners will need to be patient as I do think there's a good chance Hyde could get released if Chubb looks great during the season. I wouldn't be shocked if Hyde looks better though.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I like Chubb quite a bit, but I do think Hyde is being cast aside a little too easily by the masses.

He was also a second round pick and has looked extremely good when healthy. Health has been an issue however. I think Chubb owners will need to be patient as I do think there's a good chance Hyde could get released if Chubb looks great during the season. I wouldn't be shocked if Hyde looks better though.
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It seems kind of tricky.  I am not well versed in the cap game but the savings for cutting Hyde next offseason are only about $2.5mil.  With Chubb on a cheap rookie deal there are a whole lot of teams with a lot more money invested in RBs than the Browns, and the Browns have a lot more cap space than most of those teams to boot.

Duke is done with his rookie deal after this year so maybe they'd want to cut Hyde to save space for him, but my guess (and I stress the word guess here) is that at least one of Duke/Hyde will still be on the team for 2019 if not longer.

I guess the wild card is if Hyde has any value on the trade market, but I'm not really expecting that.

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
It seems kind of tricky.  I am not well versed in the cap game but the savings for cutting Hyde next offseason are only about $2.5mil.  With Chubb on a cheap rookie deal there are a whole lot of teams with a lot more money invested in RBs than the Browns, and the Browns have a lot more cap space than most of those teams to boot.

Duke is done with his rookie deal after this year so maybe they'd want to cut Hyde to save space for him, but my guess (and I stress the word guess here) is that at least one of Duke/Hyde will still be on the team for 2019 if not longer.

I guess the wild card is if Hyde has any value on the trade market, but I'm not really expecting that.
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Good points - Chubb owners will need to be extra patient or hope he just blows Hyde out of the water - which is possible.

I can't see Hyde having much trade value but you never know.

 
I'm seldom afraid of a decent backup, which is how I view Hyde.

Guys that get 350+ touches seem to wear down come fantasy playoff time. I'm glad when a guy has a complement that reduces that to about 275-300.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
I'm seldom afraid of a decent backup, which is how I view Hyde.

Guys that get 350+ touches seem to wear down come fantasy playoff time. I'm glad when a guy has a complement that reduces that to about 275-300.
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Hyde was very solid when healthy, behind a bad offensive line with a bad QB. He could definitely be the bell cow back for a team if given the opportunity (and he somehow remains healthy). I don't see him getting that opportunity with the Browns now.

Most likely he works in tandem with Chubb, and then is let go next year if they find another 3rd down back. If not, maybe he works in passing situations if Duke leaves.

 
Hyde may not end up being a roadblock but he is certainly something to be afraid of.  He may even be a good buy himself as these beleaguered vets often are when a highly drafted rookie comes to down. 

Sure he could be Latavius Murray and just disappear behind the rook (when the rook is healthy), but he could just as easily be Thomas Jones or Tim Hightower or DeShaun Foster or Garrison Hearst and stick around as a thorn in the rooks side for much longer than people were expecting. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Hyde may not end up being a roadblock but he is certainly something to be afraid of.  He may even be a good buy himself as these beleaguered vets often are when a highly drafted rookie comes to down. 

Sure he could be Latavius Murray and just disappear behind the rook (when the rook is healthy), but he could just as easily be Thomas Jones or Tim Hightower or DeShaun Foster or Garrison Hearst and stick around as a thorn in the rooks side for much longer than people were expecting. 
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true. The Browns have a 1 year out on Hyde's deal so they don't have to worry about his workload either - even though Chubb is still going to be plenty involved.

 
I'm not worried about Hyde, I am worried about Duke though from a fantasy standpoint. They already talked about a possible extension a few months ago, from an advanced metrics standpoint Duke was only behind Kamara as a receiving back last year, and now they drafted a guy that is at best an unknown in the passing game. Chubb and Duke compliment each other well on paper and Cleveland is rolling in dough so they can easily afford a Duke extension.

However, nearly all the other top rookie RB's I'd be choosing between also landed in spots where they don't necessarily project as 3 down RB's as well: Guice has Thompson, Johnson has Riddick and Cooter as OC who loves to use situational RB's, Sony didn't exactly catch a ton of passes in college either and is on a team that loves RBBC...

 
While I don't exactly agree with GawainB's opinion about Mayfield, I do think he makes a good point about teams not wanting to start a rookie QB and a rookie RB at the same time. Its just too much inexperience with the players who are handling the ball the most. You want to support a rookie QB with experienced players around them as much as possible.

Not the first time I have thought about this angle and there aren't a ton of examples of teams doing that, starting a rookie QB and a rookie RB in their rookie seasons, but the Cowboys did it with Prescott and Elliot. So it has happened before. I think Romo may have started that season if he had not been injured, so that sort of forced their hand. It worked out great, so maybe a concern that isn't as big a deal as I think. Can anyone think of other examples of a rookie QB and a rookie RB starting together in their rookie seasons?

In regards to Chubb I think it is worth mentioning that Hue Jackson has a pretty long history of using RB in tandem. A power RB like Hyde or Chubb (or Jeremy Hill) as the main RB and a receiving specialist like Duke Johnson (Givanni Bernard) as the change of pace. Now Hue Jackson may not be the head coach of the Browns long, but I would expect a similar scenario for this season with the Browns. Chubb is going to need to beat out Hyde for playing time this year to get any action and his upside is still capped by Duke Johnson getting most of the receiving looks (which are about twice as valuable as rushing attempts for fantasy, PPR or not).

If the Browns do struggle again this season and fire Hue Jackson it is hard to say who the new head coach will be and what that coach will want to do on offense. I would assume they bring in someone who has plans to feature Chubb but its not a given. New coaches like to clean house and the Browns could go in a completely different direction.

It is enough that I am thinking about moving Chubb down to tier two with Michel. Either way I see Chubb as a play more for 2019 than this season. There may be a buy low window on Chubb during the season if Hyde is able to hold him off, which is possible, especially if they decide to give Hyde a lot of work and burn him up before cutting him in 2019.

 
TripItUp said:
RBBC in 2018 and a TBD for 2019.
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I think Chubb will certainly have a role. I have little doubt he ultimately takes the early down work from Hyde, probably by the middle of this year- especially if the Browns are bad (likely). By 2019, I see a timeshare: Chubb gets most of the early down work, cedes 2nd and long and 3rd down to Duke, and perhaps loses a few carriers here and there to Hyde.

Chubb looks like a mid tier RB2 to me.

 
Ack88 said:
I think Chubb will certainly have a role. I have little doubt he ultimately takes the early down work from Hyde, probably by the middle of this year- especially if the Browns are bad (likely). By 2019, I see a timeshare: Chubb gets most of the early down work, cedes 2nd and long and 3rd down to Duke, and perhaps loses a few carriers here and there to Hyde.

Chubb looks like a mid tier RB2 to me.
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I think that's about as optimistic as you can be for Chubb in year one.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
I'm deciding between two ways to go with this.

Too smart for your own good

Vs 

Too clever by half 
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He could just be basing it purely on rushing and not receiving? Some argue that Saquon isn't as good at interior rushing as Chubb, but his receiving game is vastly superior, at least so far.  Also, some people have really big fears about Saquon trying to get huge yards and sacrificing the easy yards as a result. I don't think that's a big reason to worry, and Saquon projects to be a better NFL back.

 
Ack88 said:
I think Chubb will certainly have a role. I have little doubt he ultimately takes the early down work from Hyde, probably by the middle of this year- especially if the Browns are bad (likely). By 2019, I see a timeshare: Chubb gets most of the early down work, cedes 2nd and long and 3rd down to Duke, and perhaps loses a few carriers here and there to Hyde.

Chubb looks like a mid tier RB2 to me.
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The way the Hyde contract is structured, its really a one year deal. 

 
cobalt_27 said:
Yup.  A $2.3m cap hit ($3m savings) if cut by June 1 next year.  If I had to guess, more likely he gets traded than cut, but certainly not prohibitive to get cut.
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It’s not prohibitive to release him but as @FreeBaGeL alluded to earlier why would they cut him to save that $3MM in cap space when they have a boatload or cap space and they aren’t spending that much on the position? The extra $3MM isn’t the meaningful to them. If Hyde doesn’t play well then maybe it could happen, but if he does play well having two quality backs is a plus.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
It’s not prohibitive to release him but as @FreeBaGeL alluded to earlier why would they cut him to save that $3MM in cap space when they have a boatload or cap space and they aren’t spending that much on the position? The extra $3MM isn’t the meaningful to them. If Hyde doesn’t play well then maybe it could happen, but if he does play well having two quality backs is a plus.
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1000% agree.  They *could* cut him but no logical reason to do so.  More likely he stays, contributes where he can or, if a deal comes along from a RB-needy team, they have a chip to play and convert the asset into something else.

Duke is the odd man out UFA next year.

 
cobalt_27 said:
Duke is the odd man out UFA next year.
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Its Johnsons decision as far as if he want to sign a new contract with the Browns or not. Don't see why the Browns wouldn't want to retain him. reportedly they do want to sign him to an extension. He led the team in receptions last season and has been very good all 3 of his seasons as a receiver. He turns 25 years old in November. Still lots of career left for this player. 

If he wants to walk though not like they will franchise him.

Lots of players leave Cleveland as free agents, so maybe he is gone or maybe he is a good player and Cleveland offers him enough to keep him. Maybe the market is strong for Johnsons services and he goes to a new team.

As far as Hyde being cut or traded, always possible, but teams do have to maintain a minimum of paying a certain percentage of the salary cap to their players as part of the CBA. So sometimes you just pay some players more because of that. Hydes contract might be an example of that even if Chubb sends him to the bench.

If Hyde starts this season it may be short lived as he has missed 14 out of 64 regular season games so far in his 4 year career. He has missed about 20% of his possible games, and 14 of the games he played in were his rookie season when he was behind Gore and didn't get the ball much. He did manage to stay healthy for all 16 regular season games last year though. 

 
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Biabreakable said:
I like Matt and I respect the work he does. 

No idea how he would come to that conclusion.
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he probably meant as a pure runner.  If Chubb gets back to 2015 form i'm totally on board that he's a better pure runner than Barkley.  Obv he can't hold a candle to Barkley in the receiving game.  Also the odds probably aren't high that he ever returns to that 2015 form.

 
First look: Rookies get to work across the NFL at minicamps

Excerpt:

RB Nick Chubb, a second-round pick by the Cleveland Browns in last week's NFL Draft, was as impressive as anyone during rookie minicamp practices Friday and Saturday. Chubb runs decisively, exudes professionalism and seems to understand what's being asked of him. The Browns are trying to get him plenty of work in the passing game, as that's a way he wasn't used much at Georgia (where they had a wealth of RB options). During the pre-draft process, Browns decision-makers convinced themselves Chubb had good hands and could handle a variety of passing-game responsibilities. But as is the case with top pick Baker Mayfield, who's working on taking snaps from under center, the Browns want to use these early practices to drill things Chubb isn't used to doing.
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In one league I passed on him at 4 for RoJo hoping I would see him again at 6 but no luck. I like Chubb a lot but have had a long, bitter history taking chances on Cleveland RB's. I correctly traded the rights away for TRich for a haul, but got burned over the years by Willie Green, Droughns, Jerome Harrison, Terence West, and I am sure others I have forgotten.

Hopefully Chubb can put these years of Brown's RB futility to rest.

 
Buckna said:
In one league I passed on him at 4 for RoJo hoping I would see him again at 6 but no luck. I like Chubb a lot but have had a long, bitter history taking chances on Cleveland RB's. I correctly traded the rights away for TRich for a haul, but got burned over the years by Willie Green, Droughns, Jerome Harrison, Terence West, and I am sure others I have forgotten.

Hopefully Chubb can put these years of Brown's RB futility to rest.
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I passed on him at 4 & 5.  Took Penny and RoJo (0.5 PPR for RBs).  Chubb went at 6. I hope I don’t regret it. 

 
I'm TRYING to avoid this thread in the event he doesn't get to me at 4. 

Draft is in less than 2 weeks, and I am killing myself with anticipation. 

 
Soulfly3 said:
I'm TRYING to avoid this thread in the event he doesn't get to me at 4. 

Draft is in less than 2 weeks, and I am killing myself with anticipation. 
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I like your chances of Chubb being there for you unless your league is full of Browns fans.

You could always try to trade up to pick 3 if you are really sweating it.

 
Biabreakable said:
I like your chances of Chubb being there for you unless your league is full of Browns fans.

You could always try to trade up to pick 3 if you are really sweating it.
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from where Im seated, 1/2 will be barkley and guice, 3 will be a WR.

I think I'm safe. I am however trying to move up to 3 from my 8 pick. 

 
Soulfly3 said:
from where Im seated, 1/2 will be barkley and guice, 3 will be a WR.

I think I'm safe. I am however trying to move up to 3 from my 8 pick. 
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I had 3 random 1sts and started dealing all my 2nds and 3rds because my other leagues have drafted already and this draft is not deep. Now I have 3, 4, 7,8. 7 and 8 are easy, and Jones is locked into one of my picks. I love Chubb, but I have him in one league and may take Penny in this league. I'm sure I'll change my mind and take Chubb over Penny. Worse situation but superior talent.

 
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