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RB Nick Chubb, CLE (6 Viewers)

My league draft doesn't happen for a while, but right now Barkley and Guice are locked in to 1 and 2 and I pick 3. It's a tough choice between Penny, Jones, and Chubb purely because draft capital, landing spot, and superior talent. Right now though I'm leaning Chubb because he was my #2 prior to the draft. I'm hoping that talent outweighs landing spot and I can afford to wait for him to develop.

 
steelers1080 said:
My league draft doesn't happen for a while, but right now Barkley and Guice are locked in to 1 and 2 and I pick 3. It's a tough choice between Penny, Jones, and Chubb purely because draft capital, landing spot, and superior talent. Right now though I'm leaning Chubb because he was my #2 prior to the draft. I'm hoping that talent outweighs landing spot and I can afford to wait for him to develop.
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Exact same situation here. Seeing if I can trade up to 2.

 
Second most talented player in the class, gap between Barkley and Chubb smaller than Chubb and the next guy in my book. Discounted due to injury, and then further by “less than ideal” landing.

Whereas most owners moved back for any premium they could get in drafts, I moved up to 3/4 to ensure Chubb, landing him in 5/6 leagues. Simply did not want to risk not getting him.

Low expectations for year one, extremely bullish on year two. From a value standpoint, seeing lesser talents in Mixon and DHenry value this offseason make it such that I’m not concerned in the least. 

Love, love, love this cat. 

 
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JPeso said:
Second most talented player in the class, gap between Barkley and Chubb smaller than Chubb and the next guy in my book. Discounted due to injury, and then further by “less than ideal” landing.

Whereas most owners moved back for any premium they could get in drafts, I moved up to 3/4 to ensure Chubb, landing him in 5/6 leagues. Simply did not want to risk not getting him.

Low expectations for year one, extremely bullish on year two. From a value standpoint, seeing lesser talents in Mixon and DHenry value this offseason make it such that I’m not concerned in the least. 

Love, love, love this cat. 
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I traded 1.10, 1.12, 2.02, 2.06, and 3.5 to get to 1.02 just to take him....

 
Soulfly3 said:
Todd Haley hates having a bellcow tho... He's always got those RB committees going....

tee hee.
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Do you think Hyde is a mere backup, as far as talent and/or usage? Do you think Duke Johnson will be pushed aside after being a huge part of the offense in 2017 and showing up as one of the better third down type backs in the league?

I like Chubb long term for sure, he's a great talent - but looking at redraft projections I just can't see how he can have a big season with Hyde and Duke Johnson around. As to what Haley's penchant's are I think it's based on his personnel whether he employs a RBBC or a bell cow. Sure he wasn't going to take LeVeon Bell off the field - but I seem to remember a lot of Jamaal Charles owners not being happy with how many snaps/carries a nearly washed up Thomas Jones was getting in KC under Haley. 

A look at Todd Haley's RB usage as a OC/HC:

2007: Edgerrin James 324 carries and 39 targets / JJ Arrington 26 carries and 39 targets - James clearly the workhorse

2008: Tim Hightower 143 carries 50 targets / Edgerrin James 133 carries and 18 targets / JJ Arrington 31 carries and 40 targets - RBBC

2009: Jamaal Charles 190 carries 55 targets / Larry Johnson 132 carries and 17 targets - RBBC

2010: Jamaal Charles 230 carries 64 targets / Thomas Jones 245 carries and 20 targets - RBBC

2011: Thomas Jones 153 carries and 7 targets / Jackie Battle 149 carries and 13 targets / Dexter McCluster 114 carries and 64 targets - RBBC

2012: Jonathan Dwyer 153 carries and 25 targets / Isaac Redman 110 carries and 23 targets - RBBC

2013 - 2017: Bell clearly the workhorse

Now Chubb can come in and blow everyone away, but I think Hyde and Johnson are pretty good players. I'm just not sure we're going to see Bell usage for Chubb this season. I can see a 2008 or 2011 look to this backfield with a 3 man RBBC. That shouldn't stop anyone from taking Chubb early in dynasty rookie drafts because 2013-2017 Bell usage could be coming in the future - but in redraft unless we get a clear picture in training camp I'll let some one else deal with this backfield.

 
Meh as a boner owner this is a pretty minor thing to me. You knew Chubb projected as an early down back early in his career and you knew Duke was here this year and Chubb wasn’t going to be a 3 down back. I think he can catch and as a coach I’d get the ball in his hands how ever I could but he doesn’t profile at this time as a guy who can run routes like a passing down back can. A couple additional years for him to try and develop that skill set is fine. The bigger thing to me will be if the Browns will involve Chubb in the screen game and in the dump off game on early downs where he can get 2-3 catches like that. 

 
Soulfly3 said:
and? I bought chubb at 3 fully anticipating Duke staying
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It was reasonable why Chubb slipped and is slipping. As long as Duke is there and healthy Chubb will never be involved in the passing game. That will always limit him to being a highly athletic #2RB and not a stud. I have plenty of Chubb stock, the Johnson resigning sucks.

 
I mean... Crowell had 200 carries each fo the last 2 seasons, despite (and I LIKE Crow) now even being in the same universe talent wise as Chubb. 

I dont see less than 250 for the Chubbster after this season. 

 
Bojang0301 said:
It was reasonable why Chubb slipped and is slipping. As long as Duke is there and healthy Chubb will never be involved in the passing game. That will always limit him to being a highly athletic #2RB and not a stud. I have plenty of Chubb stock, the Johnson resigning sucks.
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Come on Crowell had 53 targets and 40 catches just two years ago with Duke there!

 
Dr. Dan said:
I agree

Yeah I like Chubb as an NFL RB. I hate his situation. I think Chubb will be a great NFL RB, but a headache of a fantasy RB

I find it hard to understand why people are clamoring over him as if he's going to push Duke Johnson aside, or that he's even going to flourish with Duke

Let's take Soulfly's prediction and say best case scenario Chubb gets 250 carries... Cleveland VP of player personnel compared him to Jamal Lewis, who averaged 4.2 yards per carry on his career. So let's pretend Chubb averages that. So he gets 1050 yards this season on 250 touches, best case scenario. Kind of hard to believe after losing Joe Thomas that he's going to average more than Fournette or Zeke, but it is best case scenario so I'll play along. 

So what about TDs... Crowell averaged 5 per year in Cleveland. So 1050 yards and 5 TDs? What about Hyde? He could fulfill a goal line back role. In fact, that's his bread and butter. So it's reasonable to say that Chubb may only get 3-4 TDs. For the sake of argument, let's give him 4. 

Let's say Chubb gets 2 receptions a game for 300 yards. I think that's reasonable. It's a higher average per catch than Crowell ever got, and you can't expect a rookie to be in on passing downs much, especially with Hyde there. 

He's still averaging only about 12 points per game. That's not even flex worthy in many PPR leagues. And that's a best case scenario. Even if he has 8 TDs (Crowell's all time high... without Duke might I add). He's still only at 13.4 points per game. I've said in the past that I'd be happy with my RB2 scoring over 12 points per game weekly, but it just goes to show that Chubb's value will almost always be diminished to a low end RB2 as long as Duke Johnson is vulturing receptions. 

 
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I didn't want them to sign Duke either but I think you're underestimating Chubb a bit and might be a little too pessimistic. This is not like the Browns traded for David Johnson. 

 
Jello_Biafra said:
I didn't want them to sign Duke either but I think you're underestimating Chubb a bit and might be a little too pessimistic. This is not like the Browns traded for David Johnson. 
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so you think chubb will average more than 4.2 ypc, have over 250 rushes? 

I thought I was being generous... behind that awful OL I dont expect any RB to average over 4.0 ypc. 

or you think chubb will score 10 TDs? 

 
Dr. Dan said:
so you think chubb will average more than 4.2 ypc, have over 250 rushes? 

I thought I was being generous... behind that awful OL I dont expect any RB to average over 4.0 ypc. 

or you think chubb will score 10 TDs? 
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I think that Duke is not a huge threat to chubb long-term. that is all I was saying.

 
Jello_Biafra said:
I think that Duke is not a huge threat to chubb long-term. that is all I was saying.
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I don't think Duke is a threat for Chubb either. I dont think Duke is better than Chubb or will force him to the bench. I think Duke limits Chubbs upside. Crowell wasn't half bad at catching the ball. I believe he had a few high catch games. but in the end they kept going back to Duke. now chubb >>> Crowell, but I dont see their game plan changing. 

I like Chubb a lot hate his destination. One of the worst OL in football, unknown at qb, and the lone highlight on offense happens to play his same position. 

in the long term, maybe chubb carves out more of a passing roll. I agree. I hope to land chubb in a trade of I can. perhaps after a Mixon-like rookie year his owner will drop the price a little. we will see. I certainly dont like his outlook over the next 2 seasons at least

 
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Dr. Dan said:
I don't think Duke is a threat for Chubb either. I dont think Duke is better than Chubb or will force him to the bench. I think Duke limits Chubbs upside. Crowell wasn't half bad at catching the ball. I believe he had a few high catch games. but in the end they kept going back to Duke. now chubb >>> Crowell, but I dont see their game plan changing. 

I like Chubb a lot hate his destination. One of the worst OL in football, unknown at qb, and the lone highlight on offense happens to play his same position. 

in the long term, maybe chubb carves out more of a passing roll. I agree. I hope to land chubb in a trade of I can. perhaps after a Mixon-like rookie year his owner will drop the price a little. we will see. I certainly dont like his outlook over the next 2 seasons at least
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I thought Cleveland had a solid OL? if you're going to judge this year's rookies based on their teams OLs, you have to drop Barkley and Penny down a bit because they are playing behind putrid OLs.

 
Dr. Dan said:
so you think chubb will average more than 4.2 ypc, have over 250 rushes? 

I thought I was being generous... behind that awful OL I dont expect any RB to average over 4.0 ypc. 

or you think chubb will score 10 TDs? 
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What was Crowell's ypc last season?

 
Jello_Biafra said:
I thought Cleveland had a solid OL? if you're going to judge this year's rookies based on their teams OLs, you have to drop Barkley and Penny down a bit because they are playing behind putrid OLs.
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I hate penny behind that OL. I hate penny more than chubb tbh. I also done think Barkley rushes very well either. I think having an average QB, super star wr and a budding te helps. I think Barkley's value lies in receptions. not to mention Barkley is a generational talent. chubb is not. 

 
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Jello_Biafra said:
I thought Cleveland had a solid OL? if you're going to judge this year's rookies based on their teams OLs, you have to drop Barkley and Penny down a bit because they are playing behind putrid OLs.
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Nyg added solder and drafted hernandez in round 2...that line will be much better...cleveland lost an all generation talent in joe thomas....im not sure what seattle is doing at oline.....

 
Dr. Dan said:
I hate penny behind that OL. I hate penny more than chubb tbh. I also done think Barkley rushes very well either. I think having an average QB, super star wr and a budding te helps. I think Barkley's value lies in receptions. not to mention Barkley is a generational talent. chubb is not. 
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I think a healthy Chubb is very close to a generational talent. The big difference is pass catching though, can’t disagree with that. 

 
voiceofunreason said:
I think a healthy Chubb is very close to a generational talent. The big difference is pass catching though, can’t disagree with that. 
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I would agree with you 2 years ago. I'm not so sure now. He had flashes of his former self this last year, but whether or not he continues to make that return to his pre-injury self, and if that translates into his NFL game, remain to be seen. No one knows and only time will tell. If he can return back to that form, yes I agree 100%. I really like Chubb as a player. I am hoping to trade for him at some point. I am pretty sure it would cost me Hines and Corey Davis, and I'm not sure I like that deal at this point. 

 
Four of Cleveland's projected starters on offensive line started 16 games together last season (and Spencer Drango, who started 10 games, is coming off the bench).  The only new starter is Chris Hubbard who started 10 games in Pittsburgh last season.

The Cleveland line does not look like a liability heading into 2018, at worst they are middle of the pack and could actually turn into one of the better units. 

 
Jello_Biafra said:
I thought Cleveland had a solid OL? if you're going to judge this year's rookies based on their teams OLs, you have to drop Barkley and Penny down a bit because they are playing behind putrid OLs.
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Penny's line is a very big question mark heading into 2018. On the plus side, Justin Britt has been a rock manning the center position, starting 63 of the last 64 games. Germaine Ifedi, a first round pick, has started 29 of the last 32 games Duane Brown started nine games last season and will have a full offseason to work with the team. 2017 second round pick Ethan Pocic was thrown into the fire last year and managed 11 starts.  There is definitely not a ton of cohesion on the Seattle offensive line but it's not all doom and gloom.  A starting unit has a total of 80 starts in a 16 game season (16*5) and Seattle is returning 52 of those starts in 2017, that's right about league average (18th of 32 teams). If we judge by draft capital then it looks like they are not devoid of talent either. There is a big gap at RG that DJ Fluker was brought in to fill, which I am sure doesn't excite many talent evaluators. And of their bench players only Rees Odhiambo started any games last season, in fact he is the only bench player to log any snaps with Seattle in 2017.  George Fant did start 10 games in 2016.  They also have a new OC and a new OL coach so there is going to be some new concepts they will have to figure out together.

This is definitely a difficult line to project but I don't think they will be as bad as the popular narrative surrounding them suggests.  I doubt they will move into the upper echelon of OLs, but I think they can easily be a middle of the pack line. IMO I wouldn't negatively adjust players in Seattle on my draft based upon their offensive line, but I wouldn't give them a bump either. 

 
Jello_Biafra said:
I thought Cleveland had a solid OL? if you're going to judge this year's rookies based on their teams OLs, you have to drop Barkley and Penny down a bit because they are playing behind putrid OLs.
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It is very easy to be down on the Giants OL after last season bu,t as always, hope springs eternal.  Erek Flowers gets killed, probably deservedly so, for being a sub par LT but I think it is fair to say that the entire team was a picture of dysfunction last year.

Flowers is being moved to RT and, despite all the hubub about not showing up for voluntary sessions in April all the reports have been positive about the move.  What that translates to is the right side of the NYG OL (C-RG-RT) combined for 44 of 48 starts together last season. While that sounds good, and it is, UDFA C Brett Jones is really a big unknown and it would not be surprising if he simply doesn't have the talent to be a long term answer.  RG John Jerry is a steady veteran with 56 starts over the last four seasons.  It's likely not a great right side but it's probably a lot (a little?) better than people give credit for, but if Shurmer's staff can get Flowers to have even a Robert Gallery style resurgence (i.e. good, not great) then...  The left side is entirely new, neither Nate Solder or Will Hernandez were with the Giants last year but Hernandez was the 34th pick, and second guard drafted in April and I think everyone and my grandmother sees Solder as a big improvement.

I think a big factor in their favor is the influx of offensive talent with the return of ODB and addition of Barkley which will go a long way to masking the deficiencies along the OL.

I expect the OL to be a liability at least early in the season, and very possibly all year, but there is just enough there to think they can finish the season as a middle of the pack group.

 
Chaka said:
It is very easy to be down on the Giants OL after last season bu,t as always, hope springs eternal.  Erek Flowers gets killed, probably deservedly so, for being a sub par LT but I think it is fair to say that the entire team was a picture of dysfunction last year.

Flowers is being moved to RT and, despite all the hubub about not showing up for voluntary sessions in April all the reports have been positive about the move.  What that translates to is the right side of the NYG OL (C-RG-RT) combined for 44 of 48 starts together last season. While that sounds good, and it is, UDFA C Brett Jones is really a big unknown and it would not be surprising if he simply doesn't have the talent to be a long term answer.  RG John Jerry is a steady veteran with 56 starts over the last four seasons.  It's likely not a great right side but it's probably a lot (a little?) better than people give credit for, but if Shurmer's staff can get Flowers to have even a Robert Gallery style resurgence (i.e. good, not great) then...  The left side is entirely new, neither Nate Solder or Will Hernandez were with the Giants last year but Hernandez was the 34th pick, and second guard drafted in April and I think everyone and my grandmother sees Solder as a big improvement.

I think a big factor in their favor is the influx of offensive talent with the return of ODB and addition of Barkley which will go a long way to masking the deficiencies along the OL.

I expect the OL to be a liability at least early in the season, and very possibly all year, but there is just enough there to think they can finish the season as a middle of the pack group.
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I'm aware of the Giants OL improvements. I'm just responding to someone that said Chubb had no chance behind the putrid Cleveland OL. I look at more than immediate situation when evaluating players, because I only play dynasty. Teams can improve their OL quickly, situations change, but talent is still talent. I don't see Duke Johnson, or the Browns' OL getting in the way of Chubb being a productive player, long term.

 
Dr. Dan said:
One of the worst OL in football,
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:no:   Um no.  

They lost Joe Thomas but the Browns offensive line is not one of the worst in football, not even close.  The interior is one of the best in the league.

They signed the Steelers RT Chris Hubbard.  You may not know who he is but he's viewed as one of the best up-and-coming offensive linemen in the league and many thought he had the skills to replace Joe-T on the blind side but he takes over for Shon Coleman on the strong side.  He's very-good.  

The Browns have been grooming Shon Coleman for two years and moved him from the right side to the left.  They also used the 32nd pick on Austin Corbett and are giving him a long look on the left side.  Worst case scenario is he is providing competition to Coleman for the starting left tackle position and has the skills to be the utility man who can play any position on the inside.

Right now, the Browns are ranked right about the middle of league in terms of overall strength of the offensive line.  They signed TE David Fells considered a top-notch in-line blocking TE and 'the best' pass blocking TE in the league so if Coleman struggles the Browns will be able to provide plenty of help.  If Coleman blows up or just is able to hold up the Browns will be one of the better offensive lines in the league.

 
Seahawks and giants lines have nowhere to go but up. There are a handful of elite lines, and a handful that you may classify as Bad (or unknown) but I think a wide swath of teams in the middle can go either way based on injuries or other factors (qb play, rb play, scheme, game script.) Some teams that had bad oline play (Detroit) may have much better play simply because a key piece should be in place. Maybe you can predict buffalo will take a step back with their losses. Denver could hide some oline issues when manning was there, not so much since, and all that stuff has a lot of influence on if an oline is “good”.

 
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