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RB Nick Chubb, CLE (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter EBF
- Start date
Chaka
Footballguy
Do you have any info to support the notion that Hubbard is an up-and-comer?
He's a fifth year player with a total of 14 starts over the last two seasons.
brewer
Footballguy
Hubbard played very well starting 10 games for Pittsburgh last year. I thought the contract he received from the Browns was a tad high, but I think they got a quality, starting caliber offensive lineman. He's not going to be Joe Thomas obviously, but he won't make many negative plays.
Chaka
Footballguy
I try not to comment on the talent of players in general (it's so very subjective) unless they are clearly at the top of their peer group (like an ODB, LeVeon etc). I specifically avoid speaking about perceived talent among offensive linemen because, A) I have no idea how to objectively define their talent outside of what people say (which is why I asked) and, most importantly, 2) more than any unit on a football team I think the OL benefits from unit cohesion. Making the correct line adjustments both pre-and-post snap and knowing what the guy next to you is going to do, IMO, makes up for a lot of perceived deficiencies in talent. That kind of cohesion comes from playing together as a unit, so more starts together = more good.
Hubbard may be an improvement from talent perspective, but what I really like about the Cleveland line is that the four returning starters started every game together last season. That is not as common as some might think.
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
I'm most concerned about the Joe Thomas loss. That guy was a generational talent at the OL.Um no.
They lost Joe Thomas but the Browns offensive line is not one of the worst in football, not even close. The interior is one of the best in the league.
They signed the Steelers RT Chris Hubbard. You may not know who he is but he's viewed as one of the best up-and-coming offensive linemen in the league and many thought he had the skills to replace Joe-T on the blind side but he takes over for Shon Coleman on the strong side. He's very-good.
The Browns have been grooming Shon Coleman for two years and moved him from the right side to the left. They also used the 32nd pick on Austin Corbett and are giving him a long look on the left side. Worst case scenario is he is providing competition to Coleman for the starting left tackle position and has the skills to be the utility man who can play any position on the inside.
Right now, the Browns are ranked right about the middle of league in terms of overall strength of the offensive line. They signed TE David Fells considered a top-notch in-line blocking TE and 'the best' pass blocking TE in the league so if Coleman struggles the Browns will be able to provide plenty of help. If Coleman blows up or just is able to hold up the Browns will be one of the better offensive lines in the league.
I find it hard to believe that a 27 year old is considered "up and coming," but it's widely accepted that a OL at the age of 29 or 30 is "too old." ProFootballFocus graded him below average as the #40 T in the league. Perhaps he takes the next step this season and has 2-3 very productive years, but "one of the best up and coming offensive linemen in the league" is likely a gross over-statement
Shon Coleman was rated as the 51st best T in the league and was graded "poor" by PFF. But I will give you that he could be an eventual competent starter given I don't know much about him and it's not uncommon for mid round OL to sit for a year or two.
Regardless, it sounds more like wishful thinking that a 27 year old that has yet to "make it," a 3rd year 3rd round Tackle switching positions, and 2.01 rookie are going to over-come losing one of the best Tackles we've seen in over the last decade or two and be an upgrade in general from last season's line. But, your guess is as good as mine, so I guess we will see in a few short months.
Chaka
Footballguy
Agree with most everything you posted.I'm most concerned about the Joe Thomas loss. That guy was a generational talent at the OL.
I find it hard to believe that a 27 year old is considered "up and coming," but it's widely accepted that a OL at the age of 29 or 30 is "too old." ProFootballFocus graded him below average as the #40 T in the league. Perhaps he takes the next step this season and has 2-3 very productive years, but "one of the best up and coming offensive linemen in the league" is likely a gross over-statement
Shon Coleman was rated as the 51st best T in the league and was graded "poor" by PFF. But I will give you that he could be an eventual competent starter given I don't know much about him and it's not uncommon for mid round OL to sit for a year or two.
Regardless, it sounds more like wishful thinking that a 27 year old that has yet to "make it," a 3rd year 3rd round Tackle switching positions, and 2.01 rookie are going to over-come losing one of the best Tackles we've seen in over the last decade or two and be an upgrade in general from last season's line. But, your guess is as good as mine, so I guess we will see in a few short months.
Losing Joe Thomas, and having him retire, sucks bad and you simply cannot replace him. However this season they are not losing him to injury in week seven and I think that makes a big difference. With four returning 16 game starters and a full offseason without JT I think they are well situated to improve markedly on last season (post JT).
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Not here on earth. Thomas, Whitworth, and Peters have all been awesome well into their 30s. Those are just off the top of my head. I'm not an OL expert, so I'm sure there are more examples. Seattle traded for Duane Brown at age 31. I'd say, generally speaking, offensive linemen age better than skill position players. 29 is definitely not "too old" for an offensive lineman.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-top-25-offensive-linemen-of-the-2017-nfl-season
A lot of the top guys are at least 29.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Well, the Browns new OC is Todd Haley who was Hubbard's OC with the Steelers. He knows him and I' sure he gave a scouting report and likely approved or pushed the signing.
The Steelers liked him as does PFF.
http://triblive.com/sports/steelers/12980569-74/starting-is-nothing-new-for-steelers-right-tackle-chris-hubbard
http://triblive.com/sports/steelers/13417738-74/steelers-ol-chris-hubbard-to-sign-with-browns-for-5-years
...The Browns, with money to spend under the salary cap, will reunite Hubbard with offensive coordinator Todd Haley,
...His former Steelers teammates were quick to congratule Hubbard on Twitter.
"Well deserved so happy for my guy," wrote linebacker Vince Williams.
Regarding Browns OL. This is just one beat writers opinion, Tony Grossi, and it's not an opinion I agree with at all but I just came across it and thought of this convo so thought I'd share. I forgot to copy link but here it is:
Hey Tony: As they stand today, how do you rank the position groups? Strongest ones to weakest.
Hey Buzz: On paper, 1. Defensive line, 2. Offensive line, 3. Defensive secondary, 4. Receiver, 5. Running back, 6. Quarterback, 7. Linebacker, 8. Tight end. These easily could be juggled significantly after preseason. There are so many new faces – including coaches – that it’s hard to predict the strengths of this team.
Hey Tony: As they stand today, how do you rank the position groups? Strongest ones to weakest.
Hey Buzz: On paper, 1. Defensive line, 2. Offensive line, 3. Defensive secondary, 4. Receiver, 5. Running back, 6. Quarterback, 7. Linebacker, 8. Tight end. These easily could be juggled significantly after preseason. There are so many new faces – including coaches – that it’s hard to predict the strengths of this team.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Hubbard's 2017 PFF grade was 69.6
The rest of the Brown's OT were
Joe Thomas 86.4
Drango 47.7
Coleman 53.6
The rest of the Brown's OT were
Joe Thomas 86.4
Drango 47.7
Coleman 53.6
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Coleman played left tackle in college so he's moving back to his natural left tackle position.The Man With No Name said:
Coleman has a 'unique' story as a cancer survivor. >>> Auburn's Shon Coleman a cancer survivor, about to begin career in NFL
He likely wasn't at 'full strength' early in his career. He wasn't playing his college position and he this guy coaching him which is nice. >>> Joe Thomas already helping Shon Coleman make the switch to left tackle
He may not make it as a left tackle but I think he's got a lot of things working in his favor to give him a decent chance to work out and be at least an average LT.
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
I've been back and forth with trying to trade for Chubb. I've gotten to what looks like a final offering of:
Chubb/Deon Cain/2019 2nd rd for Corey Davis/Alex Collins/N Haines/Crowell/2019 3rd
thinking of countering minus Hines. I think this is too much even without Hines but probably easier to swallow if I can keep him. my RBS would be Barkley, Guice, Chubb, Aaron Jones and backups
Chubb/Deon Cain/2019 2nd rd for Corey Davis/Alex Collins/N Haines/Crowell/2019 3rd
thinking of countering minus Hines. I think this is too much even without Hines but probably easier to swallow if I can keep him. my RBS would be Barkley, Guice, Chubb, Aaron Jones and backups
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Aznflyer14
Footballguy
Agreed... Especially in light of Browns' aggressive moves in recent off-season activity. Chubb will be the guy next year... if not, probably toward end of the season this year (this is likely due to Hyde's propensity of getting dinged-up rather easily). He's way too talent to be stashed on their bench.FF Ninja said:
Not really a discussion. Just a probable outcome. Even though Jones is a backup, I'd probably hang onto Corey Davis if I was you (and I'm a Chubb fan). I think Davis has a better chance at gaining value quickly (correcting for the dip that was caused by an injury plagued rookie year) while Chubb will likely trend laterally or down a smidge while mired in a bit of a RBBC to start his career. If Davis pulls another hammy and/or Chubb dominates touches immediately, that advice could be really bad, but I think my first scenario is more likely to play out than that one.
Disclaimer: I own neither Davis nor Chubb. Would love to own both.
Going on FFninja. Davis might help you more now but will it be top 12 stats. Doubt it. More WR3. Chubb could be top 5 RB come next year. Not sure Davis and being in Tennessee has that high of ceiling
of course I own Chubb and was offered Davis and Marlon Mack for Chubb and James Washington. Easy reject and did not even want to counter Chubb for Davis
JPeso
Footballguy
While I like Davis enough, I agree, I’m not moving Chubb for Davis, let alone the downgrade from Mack to Washington. Davis can keep getting compared to DT but it’s a stretch that his career production totals sniff DT levels, obviously my opinion.
when you have so many quality options at WR, guys like Shepard are available at half the cost of Davis, and guys with historical early career starts like Cooks are available at the same cost as Davis, keep or take the guy who can really move the needle.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
off topic, but comparing their rookie seasons Davis is already out pacing DT, and is a year younger than DT was when he entered the league.
yes, Mariota is not Peyton Manning, which was when DT had his most productive seasons, but so far he is on the same pace, if not better.
My point was that if you are going to trade a package including Davis for a package including Chubb, you'd probably fare better by waiting a while. Owners are frequently impatient and if Davis is healthy and producing while Chubb is splitting time in a young offense then the scales should start to tip. Dan was also giving up two young RBs (Crowell, Collins) who project to be the top RB in their respective backfields. They're both pretty cheap right now, but if one of them starts off hot, I think their mid-season trade value will be solid.
Additionally, I think you are a little down on Davis. He was hurt last year and the offense was crap. I'm not saying I project him to be a top 5 WR asset in a year, but it's not out of the question. His upside is solid and I think WR3 is low for his expected 2018 outcome.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
seems to be two groups, people who love Chubb would say hes better or equal. some say Chubb js far less.
glad I sobered up, I almost traded Davis... I just think long term Chubb has potential
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voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Davis didn’t show much last year and Mariota took a big step backwards. I mean as prospects I’d say Chubb was better and I don’t see how Davis’s value has increased since last year.
jeaton6
Footballguy
All reports seem to indicate that davis has looked great in camp. Agreed value not up but figured last years 1.1/1.2 who is going ahead of or at least right at rookie 1.2 in startups is > 1.3-1.6. I’ve regularly landed Chubb at 1.5/1.6 hence I was surprised to see this. I figured most Davis owners would be looking for Chubb+ not the other way around. I guess I need to think about him at 1.4 now.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I give Mariota a pass last year for being rushed back after his leg fracture.
the titans have changed their offensive scheme to feature more passing with a spread offense, which is where Davis was most successful. I'm mostly looking forward to seeing that.
Chaka
Footballguy
JPeso
Footballguy
Or 3?
I doubt majority of Davis owners are clamoring to buy Chubb. Most Davis owners were high on him if they drafted him and may or may not also like Chubb. Both players have plenty of upside and plenty of risk. I’m shocked we saw a deal involving the two, because it says the owner who dealt Davis (and thus probably liked Davis) must really like Chubb. Which I am interested in knowing which owners are riding with me going ChooChoo on the ChubbTrain
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I did not trade Davis but almost did. Se had a verbal agreement on a trade but no official acceptance. I took over this team this season, so I did not draft him and have been blowing up the roster to move forward in a direction I like.
I do like Chubb. I want to trade for him but unfortunately any trade for him the owner needs Davis and 2 RBs. he sees Chubb as a top 5 rb, and that's his prerogative
I'm not overly high on Tennessee's passing game, but I can't penalize one guy for a bad situation and then turn around and say another guy has top 5 potential based on playing for the Cleveland freaking Browns. No matter how much it may seem in an offseason that they have improved on paper.
I like Chubb but I'll be looking to possibly buy during the season or next offseason after Duke continues to catch a bunch of passes and Hyde most likely steals a bunch of touches. Based on that most recent article Faust just posted confirms a lot of what has been speculated since they drafted Chubb, that this sounds very much like a RBBC mess. Chubb looks like he's going to have Mixon type first season and you will have to hope that he gets in there and has a breakout game with the majority of the carries at some point to see a light at the end of the tunnel.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Not to turn this into a Davis thread, but people who are low on him are likely not accounting for a complete change in offensive scheme. I think TEN's passing game is going to surprise a lot of people this year.
With regards to Faust' article and your post above, I agree completely. I see Chubb as a great long term investment, however you might have to wait 2-3 years for returns. Is that worth the 1.2 or 1.3? For some people sure, it's all roster dependent, but if you're drafting there you likely need a bunch of help on your roster and maybe can't afford to wait 2-3 years. I don't see Chubb being significantly relevant this year in fantasy, barring injury or all of a sudden he just explodes like Hunt.
You referenced Mixon and I agree completely. I think a Mixon-like year would actually be a huge success for Chubb. I have Chubb getting about 100 less yards than Mixon did. Like Mixon, I see Cleveland expanding Chubb's role next year to be more featured as the 1-2 down guy. Unfortunately, they aren't paying Duke top 10 RB money to sit on the bench, so I think his role as the pass catching back is fully entrenched. Even if Chubb can do a decent job of catching the ball, Duke just resigned and is being paid top dollar.
I think the opportunity to buy Chubb prior to 2019 will still cost quite a bit. If his owner invested a high draft pick in him, he likely realizes the long term potential. If he fell into someone's lap and they are ho-hum about it, maybe you can get him for a little cheaper investment. I will certainly be trying as I see good potential, but I'm not paying an inflated price, as he still comes with significant risk.
Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
That's never good news. Hyde doesn't bother me, but it's becoming clearer they like Duke and want to use him.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Did you think differently? Duke is good. He was always going to cap Chubb's PPR potential. That said, Chubb should still be able to put up RB2-3 #'s if he can relegate Hyde to mostly COP duty. I wouldn't want to be banking on Chubb in '18. He's always been more a '19 and beyond play.
rockaction
Footballguy
Hyde is awesome when healthy. I still think he has the job, pay commensurate.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
nice post Soulfly3. thanks.definitely something to watch in camp and preseason.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Why draft Chubb to sit on the bench for a couple of years? I always liked Hyde but the writing is on the wall.rockaction said:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
No one thinks Duke will beat out Chubb, it's just that his "role" is a valuable one which will hurt Chubb's production in ppr leagues. Combine that with Hyde being a very good RB in his own right, puts a damper on Chubb's 2018 value in redraft. That may ultimately make him a draft day bargain, but it could also make him a roster clogger also if he sees inconsistent usage.Soulfly3 said:
While I don’t necessarily disagree, I recall hearing the same thing about Demarco Murray.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
Look at the amount of $ the Browns are paying at RB position w/hyde.
This year it's cool, we got space... Next year, as us Browns will be a playoff contender, we'll be cutting him using those funds on other positions.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
What if he rushes for 1000 yards?
I agree, I can see them cuttin hyde if Chubb shows he can be the guy, but Chubb has a reasonable contract. they dont need to cut Hyde. especially if Hyde has a good season. with how cheap Chubbs contract is, Hyde could play his entire deal out in Cleveland.
Also, they are relatively young. I dont see them in a salary cap hell in 2019.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Totally agree with the first 2 sentences.Soulfly3 said:
As far as the 3rd, Browns had 384 total rushing attempts last year, of which Crowell had 206. No Brown RB has had 250+ carries since Trent Richardson in 2012.
With Gordon, Landry, and Coleman there may be a better offensive balance, leading to more rush attempts, but 1) I don't think there are 250 carries available for any one CLE RB, and 2) while I think Chubb could develop into the next Richardson-like workhorse, to your own point about Hyde, his contract, etc., he won't be that guy until next year earliest.
