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RB Nick Chubb, CLE (1 Viewer)

I took him at 1.09 in 1 ppr tonight

🤷‍♂️
I took him at 1.09 Dynasty PPR Start up in February.  And it appears all the recent "receptions" news in the last 2 weeks I have resulted in receiving numerous trade offers ....  the best offers were Guice/Hilton for Chubb/CSameul and Cook/Jeffery for Cook/JWashinton.  Both fair and reasonable, but I am very happy with my Chubb! 

 
Also, I have no idea why Kareem Hunt is being drafted so high. Name value I guess?

The best-case scenario is you just held a guy on your bench for 9 weeks so that he can come in and play backup to Chubb?

Even if they split 50-50, not even close to worth his current draft price. I just don't get it.
If Chubb goes down for the season, Hunt steps into a lead back role the final weeks of fantasy season and into the fantasy playoffs.

Hunt is a proven commodity, that if given the opportunity, would be a RB1.  If you can get that for peanuts at some point during the season and have the bench space, it's worth investing in.

 
If Chubb goes down for the season, Hunt steps into a lead back role the final weeks of fantasy season and into the fantasy playoffs.

Hunt is a proven commodity, that if given the opportunity, would be a RB1.  If you can get that for peanuts at some point during the season and have the bench space, it's worth investing in.
I don't "plan" on injuries.  I get value where I can.  There's no value to be had trading for Hunt.  They want too much.  Sure he COULD be a RB1 IF Chubb goes down, but until that happens there's no difference between Hunt and Gio Bernard.  Their value is minimal at best, and Gio is actually guaranteed to be a full workload guy more than Hunt is. 

 
I don't "plan" on injuries.  I get value where I can.  There's no value to be had trading for Hunt.  They want too much.  Sure he COULD be a RB1 IF Chubb goes down, but until that happens there's no difference between Hunt and Gio Bernard.  Their value is minimal at best, and Gio is actually guaranteed to be a full workload guy more than Hunt is. 
The potential value with Hunt isn't just this year as a hand-cuff to Chubb owners; it's also in that Hunt's on a one year contract that he could turn into a feature role as early as next year.

Let's look at the possibilities for Hunt, both this year and next:

Best case scenario: Chubb gets hurt before week 10; Hunt steps in as lead back and is RB1 the remainder of the season and into the playoffs.  He's tendered in the off-season and another team picks him up as their feature back.

Worst case scenario: Chubb is healthy the entire season and Hunt is only brought in to spell Chubb.  Hunt is tendered in the off-season and teams are unwilling to give up the draft capital to acquire him and he stays in Cleveland as a backup.

Most likely scenario: Chubb is healthy the entire season, Hunt begins to acquire a portion of Chubb's workload and we see potential 70/30 split in Chubbs favor.  Hunt is tendered in the off-season and we're looking at a 50/50 that he's signed by another team (50/50 because in this scenario as it would depend on teams rosters, injuries, draft capital 9-10 months into the future)

On one hand, you're totally right with the "it can't hurt to ask" mentality. On the other hand, 99% of Hunt owners want way more than he's worth. So you're probably wasting your time and/or irritating the already irritated Hunt owner by not offering enough.

Personally, my strategy is to not even bring the subject up right now. I don't want to get into formal offers because if we revisit later it could be one of those "my offer stands" type of situations. I'd rather just approach them around week 4 when Hunt is just burning a roster spot... or maybe wait until they've got a need (injury or bye week) and then pounce, possibly making it part of a 2-for-2 trade or something of that nature. 

Hunt is not a target, so I don't want to give the impression he is. But he is a nice insurance piece. It's like a rich man's version of Montgomery/Davis. 


I think FF Ninja' made a lot of good points

1) Hunt owners want way more than he's worth

2) the best approach is probably waiting until weeks 3-4 where Hunt is burning a roster spot and then entering into negotiations

The part I disagree on is that he's only an insurance piece, as I've stated above, due to his one year contract that he's currently playing on and the talent that he's displayed since his rookie year.

That being said;  What is the price that you'd pay to acquire him?

If you could pick up Hunt for a future second round pick is that something you're doing?

I think if that's what it would take I'd pull the trigger at that price.

 
People talk about this 1 year deal all the time, how often does it turn into "returning to form" or being a quality fantasy starter again?  Serious question.  I can't think of anyone off hand that comes to mind other than Amari last year, but that wasn't a 1 year deal so much as it was on rookie contract still in a trade, not a free agent acquisition. 

Hunt is basically dead in the water to me.  He's a handcuff that could spell Chubb, but he isn't going to be the feature guy anymore.  Odd's aren't in his favor.  He's a quality depth add for teams, that's it.  No point in investing high prices.  

I'd pay a 3rd, maybe a late 2nd in the few places I own Chubb, but I'm not paying more just to get a guy who once had a few good seasons.  Owners of Hunt, definitely won't part with him for that price.  

 
Personally, my strategy is to not even bring the subject up right now. (...) I'd rather just approach them around week 4 when Hunt is just burning a roster spot... or maybe wait until they've got a need (injury or bye week) and then pounce, possibly making it part of a 2-for-2 trade or something of that nature. 
Same here.  I got caught in a roster vice during our auction, so I couldn't waste the spot.  I'm not overly concerned if I can't get him though.

If you can't stand the Hunt Heat, stay out of the Chubb Kitchen.

 
People talk about this 1 year deal all the time, how often does it turn into "returning to form" or being a quality fantasy starter again?  Serious question.  I can't think of anyone off hand that comes to mind other than Amari last year, but that wasn't a 1 year deal so much as it was on rookie contract still in a trade, not a free agent acquisition. 

Hunt is basically dead in the water to me.  He's a handcuff that could spell Chubb, but he isn't going to be the feature guy anymore.  Odd's aren't in his favor.  He's a quality depth add for teams, that's it.  No point in investing high prices.  

I'd pay a 3rd, maybe a late 2nd in the few places I own Chubb, but I'm not paying more just to get a guy who once had a few good seasons.  Owners of Hunt, definitely won't part with him for that price.  
He wasn't injured, he didn't 'strike' someone, he wasn't suspended indefinitely by the league, he doesn't have a substance abuse problem that we know of.

It's not like he sustained an Achilles injury and you can go "well what data do we have to compare against historically for players coming back from an Achilles injury"

There's no really good comparison for Hunt for his situation... like historically try and find me another situation that hit's on these points;

What other players were on a rookie contract that performed like a super star, that lied about pushing a woman, and was immediately dropped by his team because of it only to be picked up and given a second chance in the off-season following, and then suspended for 8 games to start the season?

If you want players that came back after time off and performed at a high level;

Michael Vick coming back to the NFL after serving his time in Jail

Nick Foles coming back to Philly after his failed FA stints in St.Louis and KC

Adrian Peterson coming off of injury, suspension for child abuse, going to Washington after bombing in NO

Eric Berry after beating cancer

and I'm sure I could come up with more if we want to define historical parameters

 
I have no basis for any of the below other than its my speculation.

Cleveland acquired Hunt because it was insanly cheap to do so and for no other reason.  I think if a team makes a compelling offer for Hunt this season they would take it in a heartbeat.  I think the Browns love Chubb and are pretty confident in Hillard and would happily cash out Hunt for so draft capital next year or to fill holes in the line up due to injury a few weeks into the season.

 
and the clue bird has finally landed....after months upon months of crowning the Browns the next SB champs because they have sexy skill position players, it finally starts dawning on people that O line matters (facepalm).

 
Soulfly3 said:
ah, yes.... the browns o-line.

they're very good. just an fyi
Lets keep the bad o-line narrative going this week. I have two big $ drafts next weekend.  I miss getting Chubb in the second round. :(

 
I own Chubb in a keeper league and reached early to secure Hunt (yes, probably too early). With the departure of Duke, owning the entire Cleveland back field became all that much cheaper even when reaching for Hunt. Hunt won’t provide much stand alone flex value, but for me owning him in the traditional handcuff way provides piece of mind in case Chubb misses time late in season.

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
and the clue bird has finally landed....after months upon months of crowning the Browns the next SB champs because they have sexy skill position players, it finally starts dawning on people that O line matters (facepalm).
Hasn't Cleveland had a pretty good O-line for years now?  Seems like that was always the one bright spot on the team, leading to people still being interested in their RBs for fantasy purposes despite the entire rest of the team being awful.

Has the line gotten significantly worse somehow?

 
I'm curious if the O-Line got significantly worse from last year.  Chubb was excellent on the back half, and now he has ODB to take some heat off the box.  I'm very happy with Chubb, and will be naming my team "Big Fat Chubby" this year in his honor.

 
Hasn't Cleveland had a pretty good O-line for years now?  Seems like that was always the one bright spot on the team, leading to people still being interested in their RBs for fantasy purposes despite the entire rest of the team being awful.

Has the line gotten significantly worse somehow?
Hall of Famer Joe Thomas retired

 
Hall of Famer Joe Thomas retired
He retired in March, 2018. If the Browns OL is going to be significantly worse this year than last, it won't be because of this.

@Soulfly3 - The narrative has definitely been that the OL is going to be a weakness. I drafted Chubb anyway. But with two kids and two jobs, I don't have the time anymore to do the research I used to on this stuff. What do you know about the OL that the general consensus is missing? Curious to hear your thoughts. As always. :)

(Also drafted Joshy Josh G. Fully on the SF3 train this year! Choo choo, brokevious)

 
the o-line was perfectly fine last season, and what's changed?

Preseason? PRESEASON? Or do some ppl who hyped Hunt feel antsy cuz he looked like trash and are blaming it on the o-line?

 
NFL offensive line rankings: All 32 teams' units entering 2019 (July 9, 2019)

Excerpt:

20. CLEVELAND BROWNS

PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP:

Left Tackle: Greg Robinson
Left Guard: Joel Bitonio
Center: JC Tretter
Right Guard: Austin Corbett
Right Tackle: Chris Hubbard

Cleveland’s interior offensive line was the major reason why the line was widely touted as one of the league’s best in 2018, but the front now looks much different after shipping Kevin Zeitler to New York in exchange for Odell Beckham and Olivier Vernon. Second-year guard Austin Corbett, who has logged just 14 NFL snaps, will step in alongside right tackle Chris Hubbard. The Browns’ offense is now lightyears better following an exciting offseason, but it will be intriguing to see how the offensive line fares given their losses.

 
Kareem Hunt will not be allowed in the Browns facilities during his suspension.

Link
This is big.  It's going to take him at least a few weeks to become integrated in the offense, click with the team, etc.  His week 9 return is less daunting to Chubb's projections than it was (if it ever even was)

 
According to PFF, Zeitler was a much better pass blocker than run blocker.  His pass blocking grade was 91.7.  His run blocking grade was 63.9.

 
Stud right?
He is only a stud if he starts getting more involved as a receiver.  You can't be a stud with 20 receptions.  And if he doesn't improve at both receiving and pass protection, he could be limited to 50%-60% of snaps when Kareem Hunt returns.  Chubb looked special last year so his ceiling is high but he hasn't graduated from tier 2, yet.

 
He is only a stud if he starts getting more involved as a receiver.  You can't be a stud with 20 receptions.  And if he doesn't improve at both receiving and pass protection, he could be limited to 50%-60% of snaps when Kareem Hunt returns.  Chubb looked special last year so his ceiling is high but he hasn't graduated from tier 2, yet.
He got 20 in only getting significant playing time in half the season.  That can't be overlooked.  I only see his involvement going up, 50 catches this year is reasonable, with upside for more.

 
He got 20 in only getting significant playing time in half the season.  That can't be overlooked.  I only see his involvement going up, 50 catches this year is reasonable, with upside for more.
True.  So he probably would have gotten 30 receptions last year with a bigger role.  Still not close to enough to be considered a stud running back.  But you are right that there is a good chance that he will get 50 receptions this year.  But sometimes players don't get more involved as a receiver.  Only time will tell.

 
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True.  So he probably would have gotten 30 receptions last year with a bigger role.  Still not close to enough to be considered a stud running back.  But you are right that there is a good chance that he will get 50 receptions this year.  But sometimes players don't get more involved as a receiver.  Only time will tell.
Id go 40 as reasonable last year, but thats just speculation.  I think "stud" is a lock, but "elite" (top 4 backs currently) is the question.  

 
Acquired him in one dynasty league and ended up with him in redraft too. The last Browns RB I traded for was Reuben Droughns  :oldunsure: Choo-Choo!

 
Acquired him in one dynasty league and ended up with him in redraft too. The last Browns RB I traded for was Reuben Droughns  :oldunsure: Choo-Choo!
Reuben Droughns got me 3 touchdowns in my 2004 fantasy Super Bowl so he will always have a place in my heart.  Not bad for a waiver wire pickup.  I love him almost as much as I love Reuben sandwiches (sans Thousand Island dressing).  Here is a 7 game stretch that Reuben had in October and November of 2004.  Running backs don't get this many carries any more.

[10-10] 30-193-0       

[10-17] 38-176-1

[10-25] 24-110-0

[10-31] 15-49-0

[11-07] 29-120-0

[11-21] 28-166-1

[11-28] 28-102-1

 
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Reuben Droughns got me 3 touchdowns in my 2004 fantasy Super Bowl so he will always have a place in my heart.  Not bad for a waiver wire pickup.  I love him almost as much as I love Reuben sandwiches.  Here is a 7 game stretch that Reuben had in October and November of 2004.  Running backs don't get this many carries any more.

[10-10] 30-193-0       

[10-17] 38-176-1

[10-25] 24-110-0

[10-31] 15-49-0

[11-07] 29-120-0

[11-21] 28-166-1

[11-28] 28-102-1
The Mike Anderson Bronco run was legendary also

 
The Mike Anderson Bronco run was legendary also
Funny that reminds me of how back in the 2000's the Broncos always had the "next Terrel Davis" right around the corner and I was a sucker for them

I recall drafting back than Olandis Gary before Anderson came into play and he was pretty solid one year. I recall drafting Tatum Bell one year and thought I was in like flint...not to be after just one good year.

And than my coup de gras was when I drank the Ryan Torain kool aid hard but of course he got hurt and never ever materialized.

Over the years tho especially  when Shananhan was there, Broncos would grab anyone and they'd be pretty good at RB. I think they even used Travis Henry one year...lol....Good  memories

That said, love Chubb this year and tho I also bought Hunt in my auction just in case for a bit more than I wanted seeing peeps knew I would seeing I had Chubb, I'm feeling pretty damn confident that Chubb is going to be so productive, that even when Hunt comes back from suspension, Chubb will still be the bell cow and his fantasy #'s won't be effected too much. We'll see but I'm stoked to be owning Chubb again this year. 

 
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A game where everything went poorly for the Browns, in a surprise shellacking by the Titans....how did Chubb look, besides being vultured? 

 
A game where everything went poorly for the Browns, in a surprise shellacking by the Titans....how did Chubb look, besides being vultured? 
pretty sure they gave him more touches in the final 2min when the game was dead than the rest of the game

it's why they lost. he looked solid as always

 
A game where everything went poorly for the Browns, in a surprise shellacking by the Titans....how did Chubb look, besides being vultured? 
I didn’t get to watch more than a few plays but following on game tracker it seemed like Hilliard was being used as the passing down back before his concussion. Had hoped Chubb would get more 3 down usage. 3 receptions was nice though.

 
Staring Chubb over David Johnson cost me a game week 1. Guess I’ll roll with him again and hope for better usage.  

Remember when the Cleveland browns were going to be this electric offense this year?

 
Staring Chubb over David Johnson cost me a game week 1. Guess I’ll roll with him again and hope for better usage.  

Remember when the Cleveland browns were going to be this electric offense this year?
If the offense penalties its way into oblivion again then the offense will struggle. If it doesn't then there's no reason to expect a repeat of week 1.

 
Any predictions for Chubb on Monday night?  I need a big night to pull out a win, not sure what to expect from this Brown's offense.

 
Any predictions for Chubb on Monday night?  I need a big night to pull out a win, not sure what to expect from this Brown's offense.
Same.  I’m in a position where Chubb, OBJ and Cleveland D can not only help me go undefeated in all 3 of my leagues tonight but also help me win good $ in fanduel.  

Go cleveland!!!  

 

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