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RB Nick Chubb, CLE (2 Viewers)

Nick Chubb rushed 18 times for 62 yards and one touchdown and caught all four of his targets for 36 yards in the Browns' 23-3, Week 2 win over the Jets Monday night.

After getting vultured at the goal line Week 1 against the Titans, Chubb didn't let that happen in this one, scoring the Browns' first touchdown on a 19-yard scamper. It hasn't been flashy for Chubb through two weeks, but he's racked up 41 touches, including seven catches. The volume is there to keep Chubb an every-week RB1 ahead of a Week 3 home date with the Rams next Sunday night. The Rams shut down Alvin Kamara in Week 2 after getting eviscerated by Christian McCaffrey in the opener.

Sep 16, 2019, 11:24 PM ET

 
ya, apparently no one saw him take a shot to the ribs (it looked like) and then they cut to the announcers babbling and didnt bring it up. he missed a drive or 2 after, and clearly cruising to a win they only gave him i believe 1 more carry afterwards.

super stout defense, on the road, and you're complaining about that statline?

 
super stout defense, on the road, and you're complaining about that statline?
Nice night for Chubb, but their run defense was missing Q. Williams and isn't that great per Football Outsiders.

They just looked stout and fired up last night, I'll give them that. 

 
Yes, yes.  Probably not selling if I had him in redraft. 

Just realizing that he might not really ever be in the teams plans to have that role, but he seems to be valued like he might. 
It is frustrating - the two minute drill is such dirty, cheap points in PPR (one of the big reasons the scoring system is busted, IMO). So not getting those snaps hurts when you're watching the game, but you gotta keep in mind he's on pace for 280 carries and 56 receptions. He's on an up and coming offense. He's a goal line hammer. He's a breakaway threat. That won't be easy to replace. The team may not put him in a position to get cheap PPR points, but the team does scheme him the ball in the passing game. His catches are not all dump offs. He's getting some designed screen plays and, given his long speed, that is dangerous (in a good way). On top of that, this is dynasty we're talking about. He's in the 2nd year of a 4 year rookie deal. He may not always be tied to Kitchens. 

 
I honesty thought his value would be higher in dynasty than redraft.

I may be missing something. Any dynasty guys want to chime in why this is or why this might not be? 

 
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ya, apparently no one saw him take a shot to the ribs (it looked like) and then they cut to the announcers babbling and didnt bring it up. he missed a drive or 2 after, and clearly cruising to a win they only gave him i believe 1 more carry afterwards.

super stout defense, on the road, and you're complaining about that statline?
I noticed that as well, but it looked like he took a shot to the head to me, but we'll never know because it was more important to show a live shot of 2 talking heads and the ultra famous former director of NFL officials (or something like that).   I thought they would cut to a replay, but no dice. I guess with the game out of hand, everyone in production was in shut down mode.

 
I honesty thought his value would be higher in dynasty than redraft.

I may be missing something. Any dynasty guys want to chime in why this is or why this might not be? 
I dunno. He's borderline untouchable in my dynasty leagues... both the ones I own him in and ones I don't.

I just pulled open the DLF trade finder. Trying to find some semi-recent deals (within last month) that aren't huge multi-player trades.

  • Kyler Murray and Anthony Miller for him in SF. So that's like the 1.01 in superflex.
  • 2020 1st & 2nd for him. Not enough IMO.
  • Aaron Jones straight up. Gross.
  • 2020 1st, 2021 1st x 2. Three firsts is about what it would take for me to consider. Remember, odds of hitting on a 1st are 50% at best. So two firsts = break even. And I think Chubb is better than the average "hit" of a 1st. 
  • Sutton and 2020 1st x 2.
  • D Freeman, Fournette
  • Five future 1sts. Wow.
  • 2021 1st, Cohen, Fuller
  • D Williams, Godwin (8/30 - was that before or after Shady signed with KC?)
  • Kelce, 2020 2nd
  • Mixon, 2020 2nd
 
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I believe after the shot by adams, he did come back in and ran up the middle for a short gain. Best to my knowledge, it wasnt addressed post game by kitchens or chubb himself. Think he is good to go.

 
I dunno. He's borderline untouchable in my dynasty leagues... both the ones I own him in and ones I don't.

I just pulled open the DLF trade finder. Trying to find some semi-recent deals (within last month) that aren't huge multi-player trades.

  • Kyler Murray and Anthony Miller for him in SF. So that's like the 1.01 in superflex.
  • 2020 1st & 2nd for him. Not enough IMO.
  • Aaron Jones straight up. Gross.
  • 2020 1st, 2020 1st x 2. Three firsts is about what it would take for me to consider. Remember, odds of hitting on a 1st are 50% at best. So two firsts = break even. And I think Chubb is better than the average "hit" of a 1st. 
  • Sutton and 2020 1st x 2.
  • D Freeman, Fournette
  • Five future 1sts. Wow.
  • 2021 1st, Cohen, Fuller
  • D Williams, Godwin (8/30 - was that before or after Shady signed with KC?)
  • Kelce, 2020 2nd
  • Mixon, 2020 2nd
Yeah, I thought he'd be nearly untouchable in dynasty and was confused by kittenmittens's distinction to the opposite conclusion. To each their own, though. I'd be trying to straight up acquire this guy in dynasty, and would give up picks for his sure thing.

 
Yeah, I thought he'd be nearly untouchable in dynasty and was confused by kittenmittens's distinction to the opposite conclusion. To each their own, though. I'd be trying to straight up acquire this guy in dynasty, and would give up picks for his sure thing.
Yeah I will be looking for something in the range of 3.5 to 4.5 firsts. 

I agree that he's already considered nearly untouchable by most, and probably doesn't have a ton of dynasty upside at this point —only downside if he never gets that hurry up offense passing down work and with it shows some game script dependence. 

The team I have him on is also not in contention (anymore, RIP Luck) and might waste a few of his best years.  Better to move now while his value is peak

 
Yeah I will be looking for something in the range of 3.5 to 4.5 firsts. 

I agree that he's already considered nearly untouchable by most, and probably doesn't have a ton of dynasty upside at this point —only downside if he never gets that hurry up offense passing down work and with it shows some game script dependence. 

The team I have him on is also not in contention (anymore, RIP Luck) and might waste a few of his best years.  Better to move now while his value is peak
Thanks for the explanation. As I've said on these boards, I'm looking to acquire a dynasty team or two and like hearing the thought processes and roster combinations and the particulars. So thanks for sharing. Makes more sense now. 

 
People are really upset that he was not in for every snap while the team was up 20 in the fourth quarter???
I think most Chubb owners expected him to loose some 3rd down work to either Duke Johnson or Hilliard, but we were a little disappointed to see him get pulled on 3rd downs for the 3rd string back that no one had ever heard of.  This was in the first half when the game was relatively close (10-3).  The final stat line is not the issue.

 
The playcalling was strange and seemed totally about generating a big game for Mayfield. They were just lucky the Jets were completely inert, or rather they just figured they could count on that.

 
Yeah, I thought he'd be nearly untouchable in dynasty and was confused by kittenmittens's distinction to the opposite conclusion. To each their own, though. I'd be trying to straight up acquire this guy in dynasty, and would give up picks for his sure thing.
Yea I don't think that distinction is the same as the consensus, as he's super valuable in dynasty.

However given the recent cropping of knee injuries coming back to haunt guys a few years later (Gurley, Sony, Ajayi) I could see someone being scared off in dynasty as he had the worst knee injury of any of them.

 
I think most Chubb owners expected him to loose some 3rd down work to either Duke Johnson or Hilliard, but we were a little disappointed to see him get pulled on 3rd downs for the 3rd string back that no one had ever heard of.  This was in the first half when the game was relatively close (10-3).  The final stat line is not the issue.
No running back takes all of the snaps any more.  And frankly, I wouldn't want them to.  Hunt is suspended, Duke Johnson is gone and Hilliard is hurt.  Chubb will not get all of the snaps, it's just not reasonable to expect.

 
No running back takes all of the snaps any more.  And frankly, I wouldn't want them to.  Hunt is suspended, Duke Johnson is gone and Hilliard is hurt.  Chubb will not get all of the snaps, it's just not reasonable to expect.
No one is saying he should get all the snaps.   It is sort of telling he comes out on every single third down play and the entire two min drill which took about a half hour.  There are plenty of running back that doesn't happen too.   all the studs, even guys like connor, cook and mixon get some third down work during games.   Its not a huge gripe but it going to stand out to owners when watching Monday night football.

 
I was going against him last night, but he looked a lot better than his usage. He split out wide for two nice catches and was consistently wide open as an outlet but rarely targeted. Clearly better than the 3rd down JAG. Tape don’t lie, I’d imagine his usage will increase going forward

 
Mayfield didn't look to him on checkdowns unless it was a designed play.  that hurts is receiving more than coming out on 3rd downs.
I noticed this Mayfield looks to his stud WR's first and probably so, but Mayfield has that want to make a big play.

If you are selling Chubb in Re-draft who are you looking for?

 
Remember, odds of hitting on a 1st are 50% at best. So two firsts = break even
I think you're both under-estimating the value of a 1st round pick and over-estimating the value of picks 2 years out. 

Without knowing anything about that league it's impossible for us to say, but I think you should be able to get a pretty good read on the 2020 1st to determine if it is top-half or not.  I think the hit rate on those picks is better than 50/50.

 
tangfoot said:
I think you're both under-estimating the value of a 1st round pick and over-estimating the value of picks 2 years out. 

Without knowing anything about that league it's impossible for us to say, but I think you should be able to get a pretty good read on the 2020 1st to determine if it is top-half or not.  I think the hit rate on those picks is better than 50/50.
I don't think it is. Even if it is, it isn't substantially higher.

Also, I consider Chubb to be better than the average "hit" on dynasty picks.

 
joffer said:
Mayfield didn't look to him on checkdowns unless it was a designed play.  that hurts is receiving more than coming out on 3rd downs.
Ehhh... that's hard to quantify. Having a check down aficionado at QB might help in a few instances, but having a mobile QB that is looking past the first down markers will keep drives alive and lead to more scoring opps. And for my FF RB, I'd rather have one designed pass play than two check downs. You'll get more yardage and have a higher chance of a TD with a designed play than a check down.

 
Ehhh... that's hard to quantify. Having a check down aficionado at QB might help in a few instances, but having a mobile QB that is looking past the first down markers will keep drives alive and lead to more scoring opps. And for my FF RB, I'd rather have one designed pass play than two check downs. You'll get more yardage and have a higher chance of a TD with a designed play than a check down.
Usually I’d agree... but I just watched Lev Bell put up 20+ pts doing nothing but catch checkdowns and run into the back of his OL

 
Usually I’d agree... but I just watched Lev Bell put up 20+ pts doing nothing but catch checkdowns and run into the back of his OL
Haha, yeah, there's always a couple games like that. I feel like Earnest Graham once put up 15+ points against me doing that as well as Joique Bell. But if you've got a running back playing on a good team, you gotta hope the scoring opportunities and running lanes offset the lack of garbage time dump offs.

 
Ehhh... that's hard to quantify. Having a check down aficionado at QB might help in a few instances, but having a mobile QB that is looking past the first down markers will keep drives alive and lead to more scoring opps. And for my FF RB, I'd rather have one designed pass play than two check downs. You'll get more yardage and have a higher chance of a TD with a designed play than a check down.
I don't need Alex Smith at qb, just prefer not one who throws to the double covered wr instead of the wide open rb. 

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
The playcalling was strange and seemed totally about generating a big game for Mayfield. They were just lucky the Jets were completely inert, or rather they just figured they could count on that.
Totally agree with this.  Late in the game they were throwing deep when the game was already decided.  It totally seemed like a Baker showcase instead of letting Chubb burn down the clock.  It didn't make much sense to me. 

 
I don't need Alex Smith at qb, just prefer not one who throws to the double covered wr instead of the wide open rb. 
Aaron Rodgers is insulted!  I hate QBs who would rather make the sexier throw.  As if anyone except them remembers how the yards in the stat columns were compiled.  At the end of his career when he has fewer pass yards than Matt Ryan we won't be saying "yeah, but Ryan dumped off the his backs a lot. " 

My main concern with Chubb long term is that his role is more Derrick Henry than it is Saquon Barkley.  Those cheap hurry up offense points are what makes a back not game script dependent.  If I have to pick between the between the tackles thumper and a pass catching back in PPR, I want to own the pass catching back. 

 

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