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FUBAR

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I went in and changed my pick....not sure what happened (maybe somebody was logged in as commish when my pick came up and picked Gostkowski) but that was not my pick.....I was going Brady here all the way....went to bed after picking Allen and logged on this morning to see Gostkowski in my draft slot but I didn't do it....

I think Broncos should be able to change his pick as obviously Daniels is not draftable

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My pre-draft picks are in... Good luck boys.

High level thoughts:

1. Kept Fleener over Baldwin since I guessed that Baldwin more likely to come back to me than Fleener (not sure if it's true, but I ended up with both, so that worked).

2. Took 1.01 because I wanted Lacy - maybe I would have gotten him at 1.02, but I figured eliminate the risk. I didn't want Jordy because of his home/road split + toughness of Seahawks D, so I would have taken Edelman at 1.02 if someone else had grabbed Lacy at 1.01

More to come tonight.

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Go Green Bay!!!! Wasn't expecting to be almost all in on a team I think will lose, but it just happened that way.

More than happy getting Aaron Rodgers as the 4th QB off the board, even though he is playing in Seattle. A gut feeling on taking Wright. I also think Belichek will have significant wrinkles to cause Luck to throw some errant balls to help the NE D.

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took the third slot thinking Lacy and Nelson would probably go 1/2 and that would have me looking at Edelman.....quite honestly I would have been happy with any of the 3 which is why I took the third slot....I don't like GB matchup any better than anybody else but Nelson is a nice way to round out my WR group....Edelman had 14 targets last week, so I was cool with passing on Lacy or Nelson and can't argue with anyone who took him over those two....

1.03 Jordy Nelson: tough matchup and was quiet last week and Rodgers dinged......but GB will have to throw

2.02 Dwayne Allen: I'm riding the 2 PPR TE thing here at flex; I think it's a chance to gain an edge....my thoughts are Allen has a better chance to catch 5 balls than any WR I take here would catch 10.....and my odds of a TD might be better as well....yardage=push or slight loss maybe....pecking order seems to favor TE's in INDY passing game right now over any WR not named Hilton.....Herron getting a ton too...considered only Baldwin here

3.01 Tom Brady: after the mixup, I made a strategical error here even after looking at things.....should have taken SEA DST since Bamac has a QB, thats the part I missed.....I could give a rats butt about my kicker, and would have rather had SEA DST and then Brady in next round.....my mistake was only looking at RB and seeing that I was pretty much guaranteed getting Vereen later so I assumed I should go QB here and then PK if Bamac took SEA DST (which he did) beacuse I didn't care about difference between GB/INDY....really screwed the pooch here as I could have had an elite DST and Brady and whatever PK......I hate when I do this ####....it's hard enough drafting sometimes in these leagues or any other leagus, that making dumb mistakes like this makes it worse.....but then again, who frickkkin knows and it may work out for the best..

4.02 Haushka: knowing I would get Vereen and not caring between IND/GB and ####ting the bed strategically, it was time to take my pick of the PK's.....no rhyme or reason here, wanted a home PK and thought maybe conditions would be better in SEA, and maybe they would stall in red zone a little more than NE...

5.03 Vereen: pretty much who I was expecting/targeting going in....outside of the lead guys I think PPR gives him value

6.02 GB....meh....

7.03 TY HIlton: protected.....we shall see

8.02 Gronk: hopefully is my difference maker

Brady

Vereen

Hilton

Nelson

Gronk

Allen

Haush

GB

:banned: ....looking forward to Sunday.....and will raise a glass for my FBG homies.....sucks the season is almost over.....

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My pre-draft picks are in... Good luck boys.

High level thoughts:

1. Kept Fleener over Baldwin since I guessed that Baldwin more likely to come back to me than Fleener (not sure if it's true, but I ended up with both, so that worked).

2. Took 1.01 because I wanted Lacy - maybe I would have gotten him at 1.02, but I figured eliminate the risk. I didn't want Jordy because of his home/road split + toughness of Seahawks D, so I would have taken Edelman at 1.02 if someone else had grabbed Lacy at 1.01

More to come tonight.

Finishing my thoughts here:

3. Took Wilson first because I overemphasize having guys on the teams that I think will win. (I say overemphasize because in my other league, I had only Allen/Packers/Blount from winning teams and still finished 2nd of 8 teams).

4. Although I don't necessarily believe in pairing QB/WR because of the potential bust factor, this is the third week in a row I'm doing it (Newton/Benjamin >>> Lindley/Floyd) - so grabbing Baldwin allows me to break the tie. Baldwin was also the last WR I "trust", so I chose him over the Seahawks D.

5. Picked Colts over Packers because I think the Colts have a much better chance of turnovers and a much better chance of actually winning

6. Gostkowski = home kicker (agree with Ref on that one for sure). If I didn't pre-draft, I might have gone Crosby just to have a kicker not playing against my defense, but they are all coin tosses any way.

7. Amendola - probably a bad move given that Belichick likes to feature different players each week and Danny had his week last week, but he gets to be Mr. Irrelevant.

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2.02 Dwayne Allen: I'm riding the 2 PPR TE thing here at flex; I think it's a chance to gain an edge....my thoughts are Allen has a better chance to catch 5 balls than any WR I take here would catch 10.....and my odds of a TD might be better as well....yardage=push or slight loss maybe....pecking order seems to favor TE's in INDY passing game right now over any WR not named Hilton.....Herron getting a ton too...considered only Baldwin here

Like this pick. Thought about taking the 4th spot and grabbing LaFell and Allen at the turn, but didn't want to lock in on 3 Colts.

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3.01 Tom Brady: after the mixup, I made a strategical error here even after looking at things.....should have taken SEA DST since Bamac has a QB, thats the part I missed.....I could give a rats butt about my kicker, and would have rather had SEA DST and then Brady in next round.....my mistake was only looking at RB and seeing that I was pretty much guaranteed getting Vereen later so I assumed I should go QB here and then PK if Bamac took SEA DST (which he did) beacuse I didn't care about difference between GB/INDY....really screwed the pooch here as I could have had an elite DST and Brady and whatever PK......I hate when I do this ####....it's hard enough drafting sometimes in these leagues or any other leagus, that making dumb mistakes like this makes it worse.....but then again, who frickkkin knows and it may work out for the best..

ohhhh....I spent most of my time here complaining about ####ting the bed without talking about Brady......I had him ranked #1 of the QB's this week, so I was happy to get him here.....275-2 seems to be the floor for me with a decent shot at 325+ and 3+ IMO.......

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3.01 Tom Brady: after the mixup, I made a strategical error here even after looking at things.....should have taken SEA DST since Bamac has a QB, thats the part I missed.....I could give a rats butt about my kicker, and would have rather had SEA DST and then Brady in next round.....my mistake was only looking at RB and seeing that I was pretty much guaranteed getting Vereen later so I assumed I should go QB here and then PK if Bamac took SEA DST (which he did) beacuse I didn't care about difference between GB/INDY....really screwed the pooch here as I could have had an elite DST and Brady and whatever PK......I hate when I do this ####....it's hard enough drafting sometimes in these leagues or any other leagus, that making dumb mistakes like this makes it worse.....but then again, who frickkkin knows and it may work out for the best..

ohhhh....I spent most of my time here complaining about ####ting the bed without talking about Brady......I had him ranked #1 of the QB's this week, so I was happy to get him here.....275-2 seems to be the floor for me with a decent shot at 325+ and 3+ IMO.......

I suspected that it was possible that no one would have Wilson ranked #1, but, ironically given I was okay with #8 QB's previous weeks, I didn't want to get "stuck" with Rodgers, because I think Seattle might drop a house on them this weekend.

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1.02 Went with Edelman over Nelson thinking I wanted more diversification, After all is done there are parts of me that think I should have went with Jordy and being all in with the GB upset.

2.07 Was hoping Blount would fall here, but that didn't happen so plans needed to adjust as they usually do drafting with you guys. Decided to go with Kearse over Baldwin thinking I needed the higher upside of big plays out of Kearse instead of higher floor out of Baldwin.

3.02 My brain fart moment....Not sure what I was thinking when I saw Daniels on the board?!?! Anyway, this is where my thought process was with the NE Def. I felt comfortable with either Brady or Rodgers. Actually, I preferred Brady, but thought I was willing to roll the dice with the best QB in the game in a contest where I need to take some chances to beat my opponents. I had Wilson ranked as my #1 QB on the board for the weekend. Also, as I said above, Belichek has a penchant for developing game plans that can confuse even the best of young QB's. I can see Luck throwing 4 TD's, 350yds and 3 picks.

4.07 Knowing I was going to get Rodgers and being comfortable that I would get my guy pick with Wright and his chance to put a score up this weekend. And thinking, that if I was going to ride the Pack I might as well take Crosby since all the PK were crapshoots anyway.

5.02 Wright - gut feeling that he will catch a red zone TD

6.07 I will take my chances with Rodgers not being the worst scoring QB this weekend and him outperforming his draft slot.

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Really goofed by keeping Luck, given the lack of dropoff at QB. Should've kept LaFell and drafted Allen/Blount at the turn.

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Really goofed by keeping Luck, given the lack of dropoff at QB. Should've kept LaFell and drafted Allen/Blount at the turn.

Agree from a game theory perspective, although I had Luck ranked #1 this week fwtw.

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I see that FBG has updated their cheatsheets... here's how they rank us this week:

Ref 116.8 (Gronk = 10 point difference between #2 TE)

Kard 101.7

bamac 94.5

Broncos 88.5 (Starks and Wright hurt - of course they are such variance/gut guys, so anything can happen)

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I think I will just keep Edelman and Kearse. :topcat:

I am free to draft after 5pm EST time tomorrow or all day Wednesday.

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so, Bro1ncos needs Seattle to win, while Ref needs the Pats to win or Baldwin to be the key playmaker for the C-hawks?

Gotta say Ref is the favorite here but it should be a good game.

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I need the Luke Wilson pick to pay off....at my first turn it seemed like a no brainer to lock down both TE1's in this format....of course BB will probably concede to the strength of the SEA corners and implement a double tight end game plan that peppers Tim Wright over the middle all day or something.....would have been happy riding Vereen in this matchup so I passed on Blount at the first turn....

taking Wilson at the first turn and then NE DST over SEA DST were the only real decisions here.....

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The Vereen over Blount and the Gostkowski picks will decide this contest. Would have liked Luke Wilson, but not at the expense of Lynch.

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as with the real game, it's should be pretty much a pick em'....broncos beat me by one yard last week with other teams in play

Stinkin Ref says:

Ref (-8.67)

O/U (128.25)

68.46 to 59.79

Ref's Dodge 2001 Dakota 4 Door 3 Keys to the game:

* Luke Wilson getting 5+ catches

* Russell Wilson legs creating fantasy points

* Bigger factor: Blount or Vereeen?

***I'd take broncos and the points and the under

whatcha got boys?

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whatcha got boys?

I'll need to see their balls first.

you know I haven't really followed all that stuff but heard they check all the balls to make sure they are within 12.5 to 13.5 or something and then they give them to the teams to use/manipulate for a week leading up to the game......not sure if the pressure is checked again before kickoff ( I assume it is)....but then again it is given back to the team on the sidelines and anybody with a needle can add/subtract.....so not sure what the big deal is.....the refs handle the balls during the game, and if they noticed one or several being too low or too high to where someone would gain an advantage, they could address it....much to do about nothing IMO.....

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The Vereen over Blount and the Gostkowski picks will decide this contest. Would have liked Luke Wilson, but not at the expense of Lynch.

Vereen was the difference.

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shouldn't have even been close if they give the ball to Lynch.....congrats broncos

great pick on vereen over blount....in a sneaky way i was hoping to be "stuck" with vereen in this matchup.....

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