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Official Dynasty & Redraft: RB Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys

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Just now, Chaka said:

True. Plus DJ is pretty much the Cardinals offense and he is an amazing receiver who will likely be used, and abused, in the short passing game. He probably has a floor of 60 catches. I think 60 is probably Zeke's ceiling.

But IMO Zeke is every bit as much the offense in Dallas that DJ is in Arizona. Even with injuries he has a better offensive line by a good margin and the Dallas D looks to be pretty solid particularly if Gregory produces even a little bit and Smith comes out even a little closer to his former self.

Taking Zeke over DJ (or Bell, or Gurley) may have been a mistake. Odds suggest it was but I love his ability, offense and opportunity more than the other guys. IIRC Zeke led the league with 98 yards rushing per game. He may not lead the league in YFS but he's gotta be the clear favorite for the rushing title.

well if there is one thing i learned in all my years of fantasy and gambling, it is much more satisfying winning or losing sticking with your own thoughts and instincts, rather than general ratings. 

And with seeing how Dallas used Demarco Murray, i don't see any reason they wouldn't run Zeke to death. Of course Zeke still has a couple of years until his next contract, but i don't think they will hold back 

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18 minutes ago, modogg said:

well if there is one thing i learned in all my years of fantasy and gambling, it is much more satisfying winning or losing sticking with your own thoughts and instincts, rather than general ratings. 

And with seeing how Dallas used Demarco Murray, i don't see any reason they wouldn't run Zeke to death. Of course Zeke still has a couple of years until his next contract, but i don't think they will hold back 

I can't think of any earthly reason the Cowboys or Cardinals would hold back from using Zeke or DJ.

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15 minutes ago, Chaka said:

I can't think of any earthly reason the Cowboys or Cardinals would hold back from using Zeke or DJ.

Neither can I. I can see why Arians backed off Johnson a bit that first year, but they're not getting younger and their rookie contracts only last so long.  

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11 hours ago, modogg said:

hate to jump in the middle of this, but how is Brice Butler doing? i believe he is the one who had some promising moments on the field but had some off the field issues and Dallas didn't re-sign him? did he go anywhere?

as for the purpose of this thread, i wanted nothing to do with zeke this year. I could be very wrong, but i think he sees a lot of 8 man fronts and the OL is already showing some potential holes He could have a great year, but i think it may be similar to that game he had last year in Denver when he just couldn't get anything going

He was on the Cardinals’ preseason roster, but a semi-surprise cut.  Currently a free agent.

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5 hours ago, shadyridr said:

This is gonna be a long year for him. I'm gonna try and sell asap.

Part of me agrees. But don't think selling is the answer. Played a good defense on the road and he still had decent numbers. 

Don't think you're going to get good value for him. 

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Some other RB's didn't have great days either:

Hunt

Freeman

Johnson

These things happen. BUT, I do share some concern with you. 

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49 minutes ago, Payne said:

Part of me agrees. But don't think selling is the answer. Played a good defense on the road and he still had decent numbers. 

Don't think you're going to get good value for him. 

if you watched the game you would probably think differently. Most his yards and TD were picked up when Carolina switched to soft defense while up 16-0 in 2nd half. he will feast on weak teams, but i think he will be crushed against good teams. if his schedule works for you could be good value, but unless they are up or the other team is up so much they go prevent, i would hate to rely on him

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I think today is just the beginning.  The combination of having absolutely no threats in the passing game and losing Travis Frederick (I know it's been said but can't be overstated), I think the team is in for real trouble.  I hope I'm wrong as a lifetime Dallas homer, but Frederick brought the attitude that the whole line fed off of.  If you can use this "decent day against a great D" tactic, I would try and unload him if possible. Nothing but 8-9 man fronts all year long.

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44 minutes ago, modogg said:

if you watched the game you would probably think differently. Most his yards and TD were picked up when Carolina switched to soft defense while up 16-0 in 2nd half. he will feast on weak teams, but i think he will be crushed against good teams. if his schedule works for you could be good value, but unless they are up or the other team is up so much they go prevent, i would hate to rely on him

LOL, dude you sweat the Cowboys so much. You post in every single thread of theirs and spew your negative propaganda. 

 

So insecure. :lmao:

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4 minutes ago, STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:

LOL, dude you sweat the Cowboys so much. You post in every single thread of theirs and spew your negative propaganda. 

 

So insecure. :lmao:

relax....  You mean Zeke's 18 yards rushing in the 1st half was convincing enough to discuss, from a fantasy perspective, that he may not be worth the #3 or #4 pick in a draft? I get you are a dedicated Cowboys fan which i can appreciate (fair weather fans are more annoying), but my thoughts on Zeke are that he may not end the season as a top5 RB and i feel pretty confident in that

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I made a bourbon bottle bet with a good buddy of mine that Zeke would finish outside the top 8 RB this season in PPR.

I freely admitted at the time it was an aggressive call... but I intentionally avoided any shares of the Cowboys offense this year. 

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On 9/10/2018 at 0:13 AM, [icon] said:

I made a bourbon bottle bet with a good buddy of mine that Zeke would finish outside the top 8 RB this season in PPR.

I freely admitted at the time it was an aggressive call... but I intentionally avoided any shares of the Cowboys offense this year. 

Last year, when his suspension went into effect, I traded him (and some stuff) for Melvin Gordon (and some stuff).  Got me to the playoffs, and eventually to a loss in the championship game.  At the time I was thinking I'd have to forever live with a decent downgrade at an RB spot - but after week 1 of this year, I'm not so sure.

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On 9/9/2018 at 10:13 PM, [icon] said:

I made a bourbon bottle bet with a good buddy of mine that Zeke would finish outside the top 8 RB this season in PPR.

I freely admitted at the time it was an aggressive call... but I intentionally avoided any shares of the Cowboys offense this year. 

I’m a slightly worried Zeke owner, but top 8 fees like a safe bet, if he stays healthy. Based on last year, he’d only need 17PPG to pull it off. He did that on Sunday, despite an awful performance by the offense against a good run defense.

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On 9/9/2018 at 9:16 PM, modogg said:

if you watched the game you would probably think differently. Most his yards and TD were picked up when Carolina switched to soft defense while up 16-0 in 2nd half. he will feast on weak teams, but i think he will be crushed against good teams. if his schedule works for you could be good value, but unless they are up or the other team is up so much they go prevent, i would hate to rely on him

You clearly didn’t watch the game. Carolina never played prevent defense. They were up 16 points for one possession and a whopping 5 minutes...in the 4th quarter, no less. 

Dallas started moving the ball when they went to a spread offense. 

Dallas didn’t cross the 50 in the first half for the first time since 2002. This was the floor for the offense and Zeke still put up respectable numbers.

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4 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

You clearly didn’t watch the game. Carolina never played prevent defense. They were up 16 points for one possession and a whopping 5 minutes...in the 4th quarter, no less. 

Dallas started moving the ball when they went to a spread offense. 

Dallas didn’t cross the 50 in the first half for the first time since 2002. This was the floor for the offense and Zeke still put up respectable numbers.

Seemed to me when they eventually moved the ball it was pretty fluky, aside from Elliot. I think this offense will struggle mightily.

Edited by cloppbeast
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3 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Seemed to me when they eventually moved the ball it was pretty fluky, aside from Elliot. I think this offense will struggle mightily.

The offense will certainly struggle, but it’s not going to average 8 points and a handful of first downs a game.  It’s really bad outside of Smith, Zeke, and Martin, but Zeke is a monster and will get all the volume he can handle. He’s the passing down back as well, so garbage time should see him targeted more.

 

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Third worst game of his career (26 games). May be tough sledding but he still produces when he's out there.

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25 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

The offense will certainly struggle, but it’s not going to average 8 points and a handful of first downs a game.  It’s really bad outside of Smith, Zeke, and Martin, but Zeke is a monster and will get all the volume he can handle. He’s the passing down back as well, so garbage time should see him targeted more.

Top scoring (traditional) running backs usually come from good offenses, seems to me anyway. Maybe we could get some data on it. Elliot got 322 carries in his rookie campaign when the Cowboys won a lot of games. Not the case now. You can hope Garrett and his OCs won't abandon the run when trailing, but can't realistically expect it. I'd feel better if he was a great open field runner. Not to take anything away from his pass catching chops, but it doesn't compare to some of the other running backs in his tier.

Edited by cloppbeast

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He might disappoint this season, no question about it, but the list of RBs with a realistic chance at 2,000 yards and 17 TDs is very, very small and Zeke is on that list.

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11 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Top scoring (traditional) running backs usually come from good offenses, seems to me anyway. Maybe we could get some data on it. Elliot got 322 carries in his rookie campaign when the Cowboys won a lot of games. Not the case now. You can hope Garrett and his OCs won't abandon the run when trailing, but can't realistically expect it. I'd feel better if he was a great open field runner. Not to take anything away from his pass catching chops, but it doesn't compare to some of the other running backs in his tier.

Where are you projecting him to finish? You summarize the cons pretty well, but I'm not really sure what I'm arguing against or what you take me to be arguing for. Top 5? Top 10? I'm not sure I'm ready to argue top 5, but betting on a top 10 finish is free money. If he's healthy, put it in stone. 

The offense was great his rookie year, but it wasn't last year and he still averaged 20.3 PPR PPG, good for 3rd in the league. Fournette and McCoy were also in the top 10 from bad offenses. 

Zeke isn't an elite pass catcher, but he has solid hands, runs good routes, and is the 3rd down back. Negative game scripts won't do to him what it does to 2 down backs. 

 

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57 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Where are you projecting him to finish? You summarize the cons pretty well, but I'm not really sure what I'm arguing against or what you take me to be arguing for. Top 5? Top 10? I'm not sure I'm ready to argue top 5, but betting on a top 10 finish is free money. If he's healthy, put it in stone. 

The offense was great his rookie year, but it wasn't last year and he still averaged 20.3 PPR PPG, good for 3rd in the league. Fournette and McCoy were also in the top 10 from bad offenses. 

Zeke isn't an elite pass catcher, but he has solid hands, runs good routes, and is the 3rd down back. Negative game scripts won't do to him what it does to 2 down backs. 

 

One below average game in 2018 and everyone is claiming he's done.  

25 games (2016-2017)

22.5 carries per game

104.5 rushing YPG

2.32 receptions per game

25.28 receiving YPG

1 TD per game

He's gonna be fine people.  As long as no injury he's a lock for top 5-6 FF RB.  

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2 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

You clearly didn’t watch the game. Carolina never played prevent defense. They were up 16 points for one possession and a whopping 5 minutes...in the 4th quarter, no less. 

Dallas started moving the ball when they went to a spread offense. 

Dallas didn’t cross the 50 in the first half for the first time since 2002. This was the floor for the offense and Zeke still put up respectable numbers.

he was 7 for 18 yards in the 1st half. enjoy. i am just not sure how you can feel great about it. I get Zeke owners aren't happy about it, but i do think the reality is that Zeke is going to have an inconsistent year. i think he will feast and have better numbers then people think against weak competition, but i do think there will be weeks when you would want to consider not starting him when they play good teams. You think they can still run Zeke down 17-20? they may and it may work, but i think there are going to be games you will need to consider other options

Edited by modogg

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24 minutes ago, modogg said:

he was 7 for 18 yards in the 1st half. enjoy. i am just not sure how you can feel great about it. I get Zeke owners aren't happy about it, but i do think the reality is that Zeke is going to have an inconsistent year. i think he will feast and have better numbers then people think against weak competition, but i do think there will be weeks when you would want to consider not starting him when they play good teams. You think they can still run Zeke down 17-20? they may and it may work, but i think there are going to be games you will need to consider other options

You're welcome to your opinion; just don't lie about a game you didn't watch to support it.

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6 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

I’m a slightly worried Zeke owner, but top 8 fees like a safe bet, if he stays healthy. Based on last year, he’d only need 17PPG to pull it off. He did that on Sunday, despite an awful performance by the offense against a good run defense.

Stop being the voice of reason.

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23 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

Where are you projecting him to finish? You summarize the cons pretty well, but I'm not really sure what I'm arguing against or what you take me to be arguing for. Top 5? Top 10? I'm not sure I'm ready to argue top 5, but betting on a top 10 finish is free money. If he's healthy, put it in stone. 

The offense was great his rookie year, but it wasn't last year and he still averaged 20.3 PPR PPG, good for 3rd in the league. Fournette and McCoy were also in the top 10 from bad offenses. 

Zeke isn't an elite pass catcher, but he has solid hands, runs good routes, and is the 3rd down back. Negative game scripts won't do to him what it does to 2 down backs. 

 

Bad offense is one thing, but bad defense to go along usually means trouble for a running back. Negative game scripts. The Jaguars and Bills didn't have great passing abilities but we're still playoff teams. They played in mostly contested games without the temptation of abondoning the run. All things considered I'd label the Cowboys a bad team who will get blown out a few times too many.

So how many carries for zeke? I'd say 240 or 270. TDs? No more than 10. Catches? 50 or 60. You're right about an increase, but I don't see bell or johnson type production. 

Such usage would make him a borderline RB1 in either format. Ironically this team may increase his ppr value, which I always thought was overrated anyway.

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my outlook with Zeke is he'd have a tough year..... but would love to trade for him after a few weeks in.  He'll still be reliable most weeks even so.

Fantasy Playoff schedule of Colts then Tampa Bay is amazing. 

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16 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Bad offense is one thing, but bad defense to go along usually means trouble for a running back. Negative game scripts. The Jaguars and Bills didn't have great passing abilities but we're still playoff teams. They played in mostly contested games without the temptation of abondoning the run. All things considered I'd label the Cowboys a bad team who will get blown out a few times too many.

So how many carries for zeke? I'd say 240 or 270. TDs? No more than 10. Catches? 50 or 60. You're right about an increase, but I don't see bell or johnson type production. 

Such usage would make him a borderline RB1 in either format. Ironically this team may increase his ppr value, which I always thought was overrated anyway.

Borderline RB1 is your projection? So RB10-14ish? 

Maybe not the thread for it, but their defense is far from bad. The unit will surprise. 

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5 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Maybe not the thread for it, but their defense is far from bad. The unit will surprise. 

Could be the thread for it. I'd bet there's some correlation between defensive performance and rushing attempts. Either way, I agree the dallas d is not terrible. But not great and not enough to make up for the offense ineptitude. Dak is not good.

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20 minutes ago, Wu-banger said:

my outlook with Zeke is he'd have a tough year..... but would love to trade for him after a few weeks in.  He'll still be reliable most weeks even so.

Fantasy Playoff schedule of Colts then Tampa Bay is amazing. 

This was a huge motivator for me taking him 1.03

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Just now, One said:

This was a huge motivator for me taking him 1.03

Was in the 1.03 spot as well in one league (.5 PPR) as well ..... Gurley , DJ , then I took Zeke over Bell....... not regretting it. 

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31 minutes ago, shadyridr said:

Him, DJ, and Bell all in the top 4 look like major busts.

 

18 and 20 points in the first two weeks, in less than ideal circumstances. He always seems to get his stats, which makes him pretty safe. Doesn't seem like a bust to me

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Just now, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

bust - no,,......disappointment.....so far kinda yeah,  boy does dallas need dez and whitten and Frederick.

 

How many ppr pts would Zeke need to not be a disappointment ?

17.6 last week, 19.8 tonight 

 

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On 9/16/2018 at 8:17 PM, shadyridr said:

Him, DJ, and Bell all in the top 4 look like major busts.

I don't understand how people are calling him a fantasy bust.  He's a top 10 RB so far.

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6 minutes ago, Deamon said:

I don't understand how people are calling him a fantasy bust.  He's a top 10 RB so far.

I'm disappointed, but optimisticish.

Dak isn't doing Zeke, or the offense I'm general any favors. They're one dimensional.

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6 minutes ago, Chaka said:

I'm disappointed, but optimisticish.

Dak isn't doing Zeke, or the offense I'm general any favors. They're one dimensional.

For sure.  But I just mean from a 'fantasy bust' standpoint.  A lot of people expect that if he's the 3rd rb off the board, he should be rb1 or rb2 by end of season to not be called a disappointment. 

If the 3rd RB off the board ends up a top 10 RB, I'm satisfied.  Especially in a year like this where the vast majority of the top 10 RBs selected are not currently in the top 10.

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17 minutes ago, Deamon said:

For sure.  But I just mean from a 'fantasy bust' standpoint.  A lot of people expect that if he's the 3rd rb off the board, he should be rb1 or rb2 by end of season to not be called a disappointment. 

If the 3rd RB off the board ends up a top 10 RB, I'm satisfied.  Especially in a year like this where the vast majority of the top 10 RBs selected are not currently in the top 10.

If Isaiah Crowell and Carlos Hyde are outperforming the #1/2/3 RB off the board it's a disappointment.

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Just now, Chaka said:

If Isaiah Crowell and Carlos Hyde are outperforming the #1/2/3 RB off the board it's a disappointment.

That happens every year though.  He's one of the least disappointing RBs in the top 2 rounds.  I think I'd be satisfied as an owner.  At the very least, wouldn't be calling him a bust or major disappointment. 

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2 minutes ago, Deamon said:

That happens every year though.  He's one of the least disappointing RBs in the top 2 rounds.  I think I'd be satisfied as an owner.  At the very least, wouldn't be calling him a bust or major disappointment. 

I don't think you're an owner. I'm not sure he will be top 12 after this week.

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1 minute ago, Chaka said:

I don't think you're an owner. I'm not sure he will be top 12 after this week.

Own him in only 1 league.  Not thrilled but am quite happy I got him instead of Bell/DJ/Fournette

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2 minutes ago, Deamon said:

Own him in only 1 league.  Not thrilled but am quite happy I got him instead of Bell/DJ/Fournette

Me too. But I'm still disappointed.

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Just now, Chaka said:

Me too. But I'm still disappointed.

Interesting question I heard posed:  If fantasy drafts were re-picked today, where would he be taken?

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