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WR DeVante Parker, Eagles. (3 Viewers)

Ace08 said:
 I see the converted WR spreading the ball around alot this year with no pure fantasy stud emerging from our skill position players.  
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Sorry to pick nits, but IIRC he converted from QB to WR temporarily and then back to QB. I believe he was always intended to be a QB. He was just good enough to do both, so when he wasn't the QB1, they had him play WR.

 
FF Ninja said:
Sorry to pick nits, but IIRC he converted from QB to WR temporarily and then back to QB. I believe he was always intended to be a QB. He was just good enough to do both, so when he wasn't the QB1, they had him play WR.
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That could be spun as a positive or a negative...

postive:  so athletic that they had to get him on the field

negative:  weren't sure he would ever be a good enough QB to start.....

 
Alex P Keaton said:
That could be spun as a positive or a negative...

postive:  so athletic that they had to get him on the field

negative:  weren't sure he would ever be a good enough QB to start.....
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I think they were planning to start him the next year. I forget the guy's name, but the incumbent was a highly touted prospect once thought to be a likely NFL player. It didn't work out for him, but I remember thinking it was understandable that they were trying to get Tannehill playing time while he was waiting his chance.

 
Ace08 said:
Maybe, maybe not.  Point is I need to SEE it first.  Guy has been up and down since he got here.  As a fan I hope I'm wrong and he blows up but I wouldn't invest anything more than a 8th or 9th rounder for him in fantasy and with the way the hype is building he'll be long gone in my local drafts before that.  I won't be owning him in any leagues this year.

That's not even getting to the real underlying problem...which is that our QB is hot overrated garbage, but that's a topic for another conversation.  I see the converted WR spreading the ball around alot this year with no pure fantasy stud emerging from our skill position players.  Only player on the Phins I'd buy this year is Ajayi at the end of the first or top of the 2nd round.
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I'm not sure that anyone is arguing that Parker is a sure thing, but let's look at the WR around him in FFC ADP:

Diggs

Sanders

Maclin

DJax

Garcon

PARKER

Decker 

Cobb

John Brown

Who has the most upside of these players?  I think that it is easily Parker.  So depending on what how an FF team is drafted in the first 6-7 rounds, this is definitely the year to get value out of him.  If he does blow up, he will be much higher next year.  If he flails, he will be much lower next year.

 
Ace08 said:
Been watching football over 35.  I coached it for several years.  If I've learned anything about the QB position over that time is that there's one disease QB's share that typically cannot be cured....and that's "hold the ball too long" disease.  There is no none cure and Tannehill has a nasty case of it.  At times he plays so scared to throw interceptions that he won't throw into any window that isn't clearly uncontested.  That sounds great on paper but in the NFL all windows are contested and the ability to be a good QB is the knack for throwing accurately into those windows.  He takes more unnecessary sacks than any QB I've ever seen at any level.
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My apologies for distracting off the subject on Parker but I think I understand what you are saying.  Even though I have never been coach in all levels of football, I did recall one of the significant quotes by Tom Brady on developing QB skills.  One of examples is "decisiveness", which is why he did develop an admiration of Andrew Luck's QB skills and talent especially after completing his rookie season.  Brady believes this to be primarily factor for Luck's early success.  Beside, why else did Cris Collinsworth of ESPN MNF kept repeatedly showing the stats of elapsed time for each QB in decision-making from snap to pass (less than 2.5 second). 

 
Biabreakable said:
I appreciate what you saying and for the most part I agree with you about Tannehill.

I guess we will see how much Gase can actualy coax out of him. I may be a bit more optimistic about that than you are, but I wasn't necessarily thinking it was going to be good football either. I think the Dolphins find themselves in some chase situations that forces the issue and more prolific passing game may not result in more wins.

Maybe I am wrong about that and Gase stays the course with slow tempo offense, because Tannehill cannot process things fast enough to get that to where he would like it to be.
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Just think about it this way...as a fellow Dolphin fan I'm sure you'll remember what I'm about to reference.

When did the Dolphins look at their best last year and when did they go on their "run"?  The answer...when the O-line was healthy, Ajayi was running wild, and Tannehill was being "hidden".  Look at his gross aggregate pass attempts during those weeks and you'll see what I'm talking about.  The Dolphins were at their best was Tannehill was playing the role of game manager.

He simply isn't the type of QB that can carry a team.  Certainly not one that was worthy of being a top 10 pick and most certainly not one that can be expected to win a crucial game when the running game isn't working against a quality opponent in a playoff setting.

I absolutely love Gase.  I think he's one of the up and coming stars in the coaching ranks and I feel we are really lucky to have him...but at some point int he near future he's going to have a "come to Jesus" moment and realize that Tannehill operating at optimal levels is nothing more than a game manager, a guy who must be surrounded with ridiculous talent to challenge for anything more than a wild card.

 
Long Ball Larry said:
I'm not sure that anyone is arguing that Parker is a sure thing, but let's look at the WR around him in FFC ADP:

Diggs

Sanders

Maclin

DJax

Garcon

PARKER

Decker 

Cobb

John Brown

Who has the most upside of these players?  I think that it is easily Parker.  So depending on what how an FF team is drafted in the first 6-7 rounds, this is definitely the year to get value out of him.  If he does blow up, he will be much higher next year.  If he flails, he will be much lower next year.
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Personally I'm taking Garcon and Brown over Parker from that list you just provided.  This is just one man's opinion so do with it what you will.  I can see your point comparing Parker to the rest of the guys on that list because I personally don't care for any of the other names on that list (except maybe Diggs, at the right price).

All I'm saying is don't go crazy on the Parker hype.  We all know he has talent but he's straddled with injury history, lack of motivation, and an extremely average QB.  The Dolphins defense also projects to be improved this year with the return of Rashad Jones, the improvement in linebacker depth, and the first round selection of Charles Harris.

Just my 2 cents.

 
Ace08 said:
Just think about it this way...as a fellow Dolphin fan I'm sure you'll remember what I'm about to reference.

When did the Dolphins look at their best last year and when did they go on their "run"?  The answer...when the O-line was healthy, Ajayi was running wild, and Tannehill was being "hidden".  Look at his gross aggregate pass attempts during those weeks and you'll see what I'm talking about.  The Dolphins were at their best was Tannehill was playing the role of game manager.

He simply isn't the type of QB that can carry a team.  Certainly not one that was worthy of being a top 10 pick and most certainly not one that can be expected to win a crucial game when the running game isn't working against a quality opponent in a playoff setting.

I absolutely love Gase.  I think he's one of the up and coming stars in the coaching ranks and I feel we are really lucky to have him...but at some point int he near future he's going to have a "come to Jesus" moment and realize that Tannehill operating at optimal levels is nothing more than a game manager, a guy who must be surrounded with ridiculous talent to challenge for anything more than a wild card.
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Gase did not settle on Jay Ajayi being their starter until after the first four weeks. Some of his comments seemed to foreshadow this as well that the first four weeks were somewhat of a evaluation period. It was after the Bengals game that they changed their plan.

Ryan Tannehill 2016

The first 4 weeks pass attempts TD and INT

L 29 0 0

L 45 2 2

W 39 3 2

L 25 1 1

5 interceptions over the first 4 games that based on my observations is more the type of offense that Gase would like to be running. This was an average of 34.5 pass attempts per game. The high mark week 2 was against the Patriots and they were in a chase situation the whole game. They almost lost the game against the Browns in week 3.

Following this pass attempts TD and INT

L 18 0 2

W 32 0 0

W 25 1 0

W 28 1 0

W 24 2 0

W 34 2 1

W 30 3 0

L 40 1 3

W 20 3 1

7 interceptions over 9 games is a bit better than what was happening the first 9 weeks, and I agree part of that was due to improved rushing game and being able to hide RT somewhat because of that. Over these  9 games is 27.9  pass attempts per game. The last game RT was injured after playing 77% of the snaps. Moore had 5 pass attempts after coming in. So this should be adjusted upwards to at least 25. I also think the game against the Titans was very one sided and not a typical outcome for the offense. The two interceptions greatly contributed to that.

The game against the Titans went south quickly in part due to the interceptions but also because the defense could not stop them from running the ball as Mariota, Murray and Henry combined for 235 yards rushing on 41 attempts. The low passing attempts are due to this and the 2 interceptions killing drives.

The Dolphins defense had very good pass rush but they were poor against the run. Injuries to the secondary was a problem for coverage as well. These are a couple areas that should be improved this season with the signing of Timmons at LB and the return of Jones at safety as well as Howard at corner.

If we remove the Titans game and the game where RT was injured RT averaged 30 pass attempts/game which would be 487 passing attempts over 16 games. Those are certainly game manager type attempts and well below the league average of 571 pass attempts or 35.7 attempts per game in 2016.

The Dolphins also ran the fewest number of total plays in 2016. Yes even less than the Rams. They ran 913 offensive plays, the league average in 2016 was 1022 about 100 plays lower than the average. 

Because of improved defense (especially against the run) and also a commitment to up tempo offense I believe that the Dolphins total plays will progress towards the average of 1022 I have projected Miami to have 1050 offensive plays in 2017.and most of those additional plays being pass attempts.

End result has me projecting RT for 550 pass attempts in 2017 or 34.4 pass attempts per game which is 4 attempts more per game than the 7 game sample following the first four weeks.and the same rate as they threw the ball the first 4 weeks of the season (how I think Gase would like the pass to run ratios to be).

This is 73 more pass attempts than their total from 2016 and I see most of those targets going Parkers way.

Parker had 87 targets over 15 games last season, only starting in 8 of those games. As we know Parkers conditioning wasn't where it needed to be but by all accounts Parker has done all of the things that the coaches laid out for him to improve upon during this offseason.

This has me projecting Parker for 120 targets as the median range 100-120-140 is the target range I am projecting for him.

Parker improved his catch percentage significantly in 2016 compared to his rookie season 64.4% with the above targets this would be 64-77-90 receptions at 13.3 ypr this would be 851-1024-1192 yards and 6-10 TD. The upside projection of this is higher than what I have Larry Fitzgerald projected for, although I do think Fitzgerald is a much more proven player with a higher floor than Parker.

Now there are a lot of IFs here I know and it seems reasonable to me to have the view that they will continue to try to hide RT as that was a winning formula. However Gase and Christianson have made it very clear that they want to increase the total number of plays for the offense. Part of that is playing better defense and getting off the field. Another part of that is reducing the turnovers so they can sustain drives. The second part of this is what I have to question and directly related to RT ability to read coverages and get the ball out quickly and accurately. As you say, maybe he cannot do that, and perhaps the passing attempts are only like 500 or 520 for the season (a bit lower than the 550 I projected) and this would lead to fewer targets for Parker than I am projecting for him. BUT under these restricted circumstances Parker still had 87 targets last season. and I don't think it is a huge stretch to him to gain more targets than this in 2017 even if the offense does not improve to the volume I am projecting.

I wish we had a more elaborate conversation about this early on in the year, as I am taking other views into consideration and I can see some reason why my projections may be a bit too optimistic.

 
Biabreakable said:
Gase did not settle on Jay Ajayi being their starter until after the first four weeks. Some of his comments seemed to foreshadow this as well that the first four weeks were somewhat of a evaluation period. It was after the Bengals game that they changed their plan.

Ryan Tannehill 2016

The first 4 weeks pass attempts TD and INT

L 29 0 0

L 45 2 2

W 39 3 2

L 25 1 1

5 interceptions over the first 4 games that based on my observations is more the type of offense that Gase would like to be running. This was an average of 34.5 pass attempts per game. The high mark week 2 was against the Patriots and they were in a chase situation the whole game. They almost lost the game against the Browns in week 3.

Following this pass attempts TD and INT

L 18 0 2

W 32 0 0

W 25 1 0

W 28 1 0

W 24 2 0

W 34 2 1

W 30 3 0

L 40 1 3

W 20 3 1

7 interceptions over 9 games is a bit better than what was happening the first 9 weeks, and I agree part of that was due to improved rushing game and being able to hide RT somewhat because of that. Over these  9 games is 27.9  pass attempts per game. The last game RT was injured after playing 77% of the snaps. Moore had 5 pass attempts after coming in. So this should be adjusted upwards to at least 25. I also think the game against the Titans was very one sided and not a typical outcome for the offense. The two interceptions greatly contributed to that.

The game against the Titans went south quickly in part due to the interceptions but also because the defense could not stop them from running the ball as Mariota, Murray and Henry combined for 235 yards rushing on 41 attempts. The low passing attempts are due to this and the 2 interceptions killing drives.

The Dolphins defense had very good pass rush but they were poor against the run. Injuries to the secondary was a problem for coverage as well. These are a couple areas that should be improved this season with the signing of Timmons at LB and the return of Jones at safety as well as Howard at corner.

If we remove the Titans game and the game where RT was injured RT averaged 30 pass attempts/game which would be 487 passing attempts over 16 games. Those are certainly game manager type attempts and well below the league average of 571 pass attempts or 35.7 attempts per game in 2016.

The Dolphins also ran the fewest number of total plays in 2016. Yes even less than the Rams. They ran 913 offensive plays, the league average in 2016 was 1022 about 100 plays lower than the average. 

Because of improved defense (especially against the run) and also a commitment to up tempo offense I believe that the Dolphins total plays will progress towards the average of 1022 I have projected Miami to have 1050 offensive plays in 2017.and most of those additional plays being pass attempts.

End result has me projecting RT for 550 pass attempts in 2017 or 34.4 pass attempts per game which is 4 attempts more per game than the 7 game sample following the first four weeks.and the same rate as they threw the ball the first 4 weeks of the season (how I think Gase would like the pass to run ratios to be).

This is 73 more pass attempts than their total from 2016 and I see most of those targets going Parkers way.

Parker had 87 targets over 15 games last season, only starting in 8 of those games. As we know Parkers conditioning wasn't where it needed to be but by all accounts Parker has done all of the things that the coaches laid out for him to improve upon during this offseason.

This has me projecting Parker for 120 targets as the median range 100-120-140 is the target range I am projecting for him.

Parker improved his catch percentage significantly in 2016 compared to his rookie season 64.4% with the above targets this would be 64-77-90 receptions at 13.3 ypr this would be 851-1024-1192 yards and 6-10 TD. The upside projection of this is higher than what I have Larry Fitzgerald projected for, although I do think Fitzgerald is a much more proven player with a higher floor than Parker.

Now there are a lot of IFs here I know and it seems reasonable to me to have the view that they will continue to try to hide RT as that was a winning formula. However Gase and Christianson have made it very clear that they want to increase the total number of plays for the offense. Part of that is playing better defense and getting off the field. Another part of that is reducing the turnovers so they can sustain drives. The second part of this is what I have to question and directly related to RT ability to read coverages and get the ball out quickly and accurately. As you say, maybe he cannot do that, and perhaps the passing attempts are only like 500 or 520 for the season (a bit lower than the 550 I projected) and this would lead to fewer targets for Parker than I am projecting for him. BUT under these restricted circumstances Parker still had 87 targets last season. and I don't think it is a huge stretch to him to gain more targets than this in 2017 even if the offense does not improve to the volume I am projecting.

I wish we had a more elaborate conversation about this early on in the year, as I am taking other views into consideration and I can see some reason why my projections may be a bit too optimistic.
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Good post.

Bottom line, as a Phins fan I've just never warmed to Tannehill.  More excuses have been made for him than almost any local athlete I can remember in recent memory.  He is what he is...an average NFL starter with capped upside who struggles with making quick decisions under pressure.

If anyone can make him look ok it's Gase, so maybe there's a glimmer of hope.

 
Faust said:
Jay Cutler: DeVante Parker 'a faster' Alshon Jeffery
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I think Cutler is going to be huge for Parker's chances to break out this year. Just going off memory...he is known to lock onto his favorite targets(thinking of Marshall, Jeffery). If anyone knows Cutler better, please correct me. Also, I think he is not into the dink and dunk like Tannehill. Not as likely to just dump it off to Landry. I will have to go back and watch the game again, but I seem to recall one throw he made that he had no business trying to make. He was under pressure and he just sort of threw it up into double coverage. I think that was to Parker, and an indicator of where he is going to look when he is in trouble. 

Now if only Parker can just stay healthy...

 
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Jail said:
I think Cutler is going to be huge for Parker's chances to break out this year. Just going off memory...he is known to lock onto his favorite targets(thinking of Marshall, Jeffery). If anyone knows Cutler better, please correct me. Also, I think he is not into the dink and dunk like Tannehill. Not as likely to just dump it off to Landry. I will have to go back and watch the game again, but I seem to recall one throw he made that he had no business trying to make. He was under pressure and he just sort of threw it up into double coverage. I think that was to Parker, and an indicator of where he is going to look when he is in trouble. 

Now if only Parker can just stay healthy...
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Sounds like a pretty accurate description of Cutler.

I don't know if he really locks into one WR all the time, I think there have been injuries and things that have made it look that way at times. When he had Marshall and Jeffrey healthy.for most of 2014 the ball was spread fairly evenly between these two Bennett and Forte. Same thing in 2013.

In 2012 with Jeffrey a rookie Marshall had 192 targets. This is the only year where you see Cutler really forcing it to one guy. I do think he and Marshall had a special connection and Marshall was catching everything, so why not? Especially on 3rd down.

The Bears WR were terrible in 2009 and 2010. Johnny Knox and so on. Guys not good enough to force it to.

 
Parker was my guy, but I kind of bailed last year after all the bad reports on his professionalism. Do I jump back in? 

 
Ilov80s said:
Ok, let's put it in relative terms. Where do you put Parker with these WRs?

Sanders, Decker, DJax, Decker, Garcon, Maclin, Tyrell. 
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I would take Parker over any of these guys without a second thought. I'm somewhat surprised this is even a question.

I saw some ADP that someone was posting here that indicated Parker has been going really late in drafts. Doesn't make sense to me.

 
Biabreakable said:
I would take Parker over any of these guys without a second thought. I'm somewhat surprised this is even a question.

I saw some ADP that someone was posting here that indicated Parker has been going really late in drafts. Doesn't make sense to me.
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Is it that surprising? All of those guys have proven much more than Parker ever has and it's not like Parker is in the best situation ever. 

 
Ilov80s said:
Ok, let's put it in relative terms. Where do you put Parker with these WRs?

Sanders, Decker, DJax, Decker, Garcon, Maclin, Tyrell. 
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I have Parker first out of that group because he has the best chance to be a top 15 WR. Some of the others might be safer bets to be a WR3, but it's not that hard to find WR3 production (and you don't lose that much if you have one starting receiver with WR4 production).

 
I had him pegged to not live up to the hype and moved him for 2.1 and brate, pre draft obviously. I did parlay the 2.1 into what should be an early 2018 1st, but I bailed perhaps too early (and didn't properly shop him). 

 
Biabreakable said:
Because I have Parker projected for top 12 WR type numbers.
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Bia, can you walk me through this if you have time?

I'll be honest, I see that MIA finished 31st in pass attempts and 32nd in offensive snaps per game with the same HC/OC and it was technically a winning recipe. Why would this change much? Even if the pendulum were to swing between Landry's 28% and Parker's 18% target share, WR1 numbers seem lofty.

Plus, when Gase worked with Cutler in 2015, they finished 25th in pass attempts per game.

 
SameSongNDance said:
Bia, can you walk me through this if you have time?

I'll be honest, I see that MIA finished 31st in pass attempts and 32nd in offensive snaps per game with the same HC/OC and it was technically a winning recipe. Why would this change much? Even if the pendulum were to swing between Landry's 28% and Parker's 18% target share, WR1 numbers seem lofty.

Plus, when Gase worked with Cutler in 2015, they finished 25th in pass attempts per game.
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Bump Ajayi.

 
Ilov80s said:
Well alright then. Why is his production going to increase by 50%?
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An increase of 50% is a pretty abstract way of looking at it.

I posted these projections and reasoning for them July 31st here.

I have had him projected for 100-120-140 targets 64-77-90 receptions at 13.3 851-1024-1192 yards and 6-10 TD.

This was before the news of Tannehills injury set back was known. With Cutler as the QB my outlook for Parker has improved a bit. Mostly in terms of yards per reception which I would bump up to 15 ypr which is his career average. I went lower than that expecting Tannehill.

 
SameSongNDance said:
Bia, can you walk me through this if you have time?

I'll be honest, I see that MIA finished 31st in pass attempts and 32nd in offensive snaps per game with the same HC/OC and it was technically a winning recipe. Why would this change much? Even if the pendulum were to swing between Landry's 28% and Parker's 18% target share, WR1 numbers seem lofty.

Plus, when Gase worked with Cutler in 2015, they finished 25th in pass attempts per game.
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Reasoning posted above but those are WR two numbers.

In regards to the total plays and run to pass ratio you are talking about, thats true that Miami ran the fewest number of offensive plays last year. This happened because of a lack of trust in Tannehill and Gase deciding to have his offense run through Ajayi and to slow roll in terms of tempo to help out their defense which had many injuries.

Christenson the OC stated clearly that their goal is to add 200 offensive plays this season, and most of that would be due to up tempo and opening up the passing game more, the running game would stay about the same.

Now progression to the mean of 1023 offensive plays last season would be an increase of 110 offensive plays, most of these plays being passing attempts. due to up tempo I have Miami throwing the ball 550. This is all detailed in this post earlier in the thread.

Same numbers at 15 ypr 100-120-140 targets 64-77-90 receptions 960-1155-1350 yards and 6-10 TD.which should have him in WR one range if he is a bit above the median range projection.

eta - In regards to Gase with the Bears in 2015 Alshon Jeffrey only played in 9 games, Bennett only played in 11 games and Marquess Wilson and Eddie Royal were their next best WR and they also missed a bunch of games. So I don't think that is a good basis of what to expect with Cutler and Gase with the Dolphins in 2017 who have better weapons and players are not injured (at least right now).

 
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Yeah, there is no doubt that Miami will want to run more plays this year. They came out in a no-huddle, and the TV crew couldn't even keep up with it because they wanted to run their little graphics on the telecast. We were missing plays. Seems silly since it is just pre-season, but I'm sure the coaches wanted to make sure Cutler could get right back to it. The TV crew talked about how much Cutler likes to run the no-huddle offense, and that Gase trusts him with it. We are going to be seeing that a lot this year.

 
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Biabreakable said:
An increase of 50% is a pretty abstract way of looking at it.

I posted these projections and reasoning for them July 31st here.

I have had him projected for 100-120-140 targets 64-77-90 receptions at 13.3 851-1024-1192 yards and 6-10 TD.

This was before the news of Tannehills injury set back was known. With Cutler as the QB my outlook for Parker has improved a bit. Mostly in terms of yards per reception which I would bump up to 15 ypr which is his career average. I went lower than that expecting Tannehill.
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I'm not sure where/when people adopted the notion that Cutler is some kind of pressure-the-defense-downfield, gunslinger QB but his career (and year-over-year) YPA suggest that notion is a myth. 

He's average in terms of YPA, and his career high is the same as Tannehill's.

Maybe some more advanced metrics would suggest otherwise but I'm not willing to dig that deep.

 
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Jail said:
Yeah, there is no doubt that Miami will want to run more plays this year. They came out in a no-huddle, and the TV crew couldn't even keep up with it because they wanted to run their little graphics on the telecast. We were missing plays. Seems silly since it is just pre-season, but I'm sure the coaches wanted to make sure Cutler could get right back to it. The TV crew talked about how much Cutler likes to run the no-huddle offense, and that Gase trusts him with it. We are going to be seeing that a lot this year.
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Every team says things like this.

Finished last in rushing/passing/turnovers/kick returns etc.? Coach says how they are going to try and improve that aspect next year.

The Dolphins will run more plays because that's the only direction they have to go (or stay the same).

But I am not optimistic about them opening up the playbook full-throttle with an aging, turnover prone QB.

 
Chaka said:
I'm not sure where/when people adopted the notion that Cutler is some kind of pressure-the-defense-downfield, gunslinger QB but his career (and year-over-year) YPA suggest that notion is a myth. 

He's average in terms of YPA, and his career high is the same as Tannehill's.

Maybe some more advanced metrics would suggest otherwise but I'm not willing to dig that deep.
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Both had 7.7 ypa last year, but Cutler did so with 60% completion, Tannehill with 67%. That's 12.8 ypc v 11.4 ypc. 

Plus, Cutler has 7.2 for his career, which isn't bad at all. That's about what Aaron Rodgers had last year. 

 
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Jail said:
Yeah, there is no doubt that Miami will want to run more plays this year. They came out in a no-huddle, and the TV crew couldn't even keep up with it because they wanted to run their little graphics on the telecast. We were missing plays. Seems silly since it is just pre-season, but I'm sure the coaches wanted to make sure Cutler could get right back to it. The TV crew talked about how much Cutler likes to run the no-huddle offense, and that Gase trusts him with it. We are going to be seeing that a lot this year.
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Of course Cutler likes to run no huddle, gets him off the field quicker. 

 
Chaka said:
I'm not sure where/when people adopted the notion that Cutler is some kind of pressure-the-defense-downfield, gunslinger QB but his career (and year-over-year) YPA suggest that notion is a myth. 

He's average in terms of YPA, and his career high is the same as Tannehill's.

Maybe some more advanced metrics would suggest otherwise but I'm not willing to dig that deep.
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The increase in Parkers yards per reception is not based on Cutlers yards per attempt as you suggest. I agree that you have busted the myth of your own creation.

What the projection is based on is Pakers career yards per reception which is 15.1 that number is derived from playing with Ryan Tannehill. Parker was more explosive in terms of yards per reception as a rookie (19 yards per reception) than he was in his second season 13,3 for the July projection I used 13.3 the number from most recent season, assuming that RT and Parker are the same players on the same team and not much changing except increased opportunity 

With Cutler as the QB I changed this to Parkers career YPR instead of 13.3 from last year.

In my personal observations of both players Tannehill is not as aggressive about throwing a receiver open as Cutler is. Cutler will take more risks and try to fit the ball into tight windows more than Tannehill will. This leads to interceptions by Cutler because of this as well, but he will throw to a WR like Parker even if there isn't a lot of separation on the route and let Parker make a play.

This isn't the reason for changing the YPR for Parker however. I honestly don't know. Because this is more unknown with Cutler than it was with Tannehill, I used Parkers career YPR instead of the number from 2016.

 
you watch any of the Fish games this preseason? yuck. they're woefully bad..I just moved here ( south FLA) from NJ, and I'm used to see the really , really bad NY Jets, but these Dolphins look incredibly bad.they might be/probably are, the worst team in the NFL this season, I think the Jets win more games.Adam Gase looks absolutely clueless and I doubt he lasts as HC into 2018..and I've seen some horrible coaches come thru the Jets organization, but Gase looks bad..

I wouldn't count on any Dolphins's player this season 

Vegas odds are 7.5 wins o/u for Miami.they went 10-6 last year.. I'm betting the farm that they get less than 6 games.Jets finish about 6-10 or 7-9 - they have talented players and a tough defense including a killer d-line..

Miami has, um, ...........Tunsil?

 
Tanner9919 said:
you watch any of the Fish games this preseason? yuck. they're woefully bad..I just moved here ( south FLA) from NJ, and I'm used to see the really , really bad NY Jets, but these Dolphins look incredibly bad.they might be/probably are, the worst team in the NFL this season, I think the Jets win more games.Adam Gase looks absolutely clueless and I doubt he lasts as HC into 2018..and I've seen some horrible coaches come thru the Jets organization, but Gase looks bad..

I wouldn't count on any Dolphins's player this season 

Vegas odds are 7.5 wins o/u for Miami.they went 10-6 last year.. I'm betting the farm that they get less than 6 games.Jets finish about 6-10 or 7-9 - they have talented players and a tough defense including a killer d-line..

Miami has, um, ...........Tunsil?
Click to expand...
No offense...but this entire post is garbage.  You just moved here...I've lived here my entire life.  We've had plenty of teams over the years that were garbage.  This team isn't one of them.  The simple fact they got rid of Tannehill makes them better, addition by subtraction.  Last years team won 10 games and this years team has more talent.

Dolphins have a solid team.  With Pouncey back the O-line has the potential to be an above average line.  They've got 3 really good receivers and a very good running back.  The D has two good pass rushing ends and a dominant tackle.  They also get one of the best safeties in football back from injury in Rashad Jones.

I basically disagree with every syllable you typed...but other than that, hell of post.

 
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Ace08 said:
No offense...but this entire post is garbage.  You just moved here...I've lived here my entire life.  We've had plenty of teams over the years that were garbage.  This team isn't one of them.  The simple fact they got rid of Tannehill makes them better, addition by subtraction.  Last years team won 10 games and this years team has more talent.

Dolphins have a solid team.  With Pouncey back the O-line has the potential to be an above average line.  They've got 3 really good receivers and a very good running back.  The D has two good pass rushing ends and a dominant tackle.  They also get one of the best safeties in football back from injury in Rashad Jones.

I basically disagree with every syllable you typed...but other than that, hell of post.
Click to expand...
lol Vegas is smarter than your homer opinion.

 
Tanner9919 said:
you watch any of the Fish games this preseason? yuck. they're woefully bad..I just moved here ( south FLA) from NJ, and I'm used to see the really , really bad NY Jets, but these Dolphins look incredibly bad.they might be/probably are, the worst team in the NFL this season, I think the Jets win more games.Adam Gase looks absolutely clueless and I doubt he lasts as HC into 2018..and I've seen some horrible coaches come thru the Jets organization, but Gase looks bad..

I wouldn't count on any Dolphins's player this season 

Vegas odds are 7.5 wins o/u for Miami.they went 10-6 last year.. I'm betting the farm that they get less than 6 games.Jets finish about 6-10 or 7-9 - they have talented players and a tough defense including a killer d-line..

Miami has, um, ...........Tunsil?
Click to expand...
So you're a jets fan that moved to Miami. Good for you.

 
tjnc09 said:
lol Vegas is smarter than your homer opinion.
Click to expand...
Homer opinion?  I've been posting on these boards A LOOOONG time.  Just because I root for the Phins doesn't mean I'm a blind homer or irrational.  They are, at best, a wild card team this year that probably gets bounced in the first.  That, however, is a LOOONG way from the non sense that was just posted earlier in this thread.

They are a solid team.  Print this post out, post it to your fridge with a magnet and a happy face sticker and come back here at seasons end and we'll discuss the end results.

And one last thing, if you don't understand how Vegas betting lines work...then it's pointless to even engage with you.  They aren't "predicting" 7.5 wins, they are simply setting the line where the most betting is likely to occur on BOTH sides of the line.  That's how they make money...I know it's an astronomical concept to comprehend...but try it and then come back.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Ace08 said:
Homer opinion?  I've been posting on these boards A LOOOONG time.  Just because I root for the Phins doesn't mean I'm a blind homer or irrational.  They are, at best, a wild card team this year that probably gets bounced in the first.  That, however, is a LOOONG way from the non sense that was just posted earlier in this thread.

They are a solid team.  Print this post out, post it to your fridge with a magnet and a happy face sticker and come back here at seasons end and we'll discuss the end results.

And one last thing, if you don't understand how Vegas betting lines work...then it's pointless to even engage with you.  They aren't "predicting" 7.5 wins, they are simply setting the line where the most betting is likely to occur on BOTH sides of the line.  That's how they make money...I know it's an astronomical concept to comprehend...but try it and then come back.
Click to expand...
:lmao: :lmao: :lmao:  My simple piece of advice for you is to stop embarrassing yourself with your "knowledge" of betting markets.

 
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