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RB Melvin Gordon, BAL (1 Viewer)

bostonfred said:
I enjoy your contributions on topics you're knowledgeable about but i would prefer you don't quote me or engage me directly anymore because I spend my time here to enjoy discussing things with friends and i don't find your style very friendly when you're talking to me. Too many years of Manning vs Brady.  I haven't always been respectful with you either and for that i apologize.  You seem to be able to play nice with other people, please do that instead.  
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I too enjoy most of your posts. Even posts I disagree with, because they usually either contain interesting and useful information or stimulate good conversation or both.

I'm sorry that you feel this way. There was no disrespect in my post. Disagreement does not equal disrespect. Nothing I posted was insulting or disrespectful. Sometimes written words come across different than the same words would in verbal conversation, especially among iFriends, though I suppose you made it clear here that you wouldn't put me in that group.

That said, I am interested in this conversation and will post about it when I feel compelled to post, whether that is to respond to you or otherwise. You can feel free to ignore my posts if you like.

:shrug:  

 
travdogg said:
My point being, while yes, these teams all missed or had underperforming RB's, ultimately their downfalls were elsewhere, and I don't see that applying to the Chargers right now.
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You're right, in the real world we can't isolate every injury to see which one is the most important, and all of those other teams had other injuries.  And the chargers will have injuries this year too. The healthiest teams at the end of year tend to do better.  If they fail to get Gordon on the field, it's like startinthe year with an injury to a star player. And a lot of teams recently have had difficulty when they played without their star running backs. 

Can you name some teams that lost a stud running back this late in the year or later and improved? Atlanta maybe? Philly's backfield fell apart and they didn't repeat.  The 49ers planned around McKinnon and he got hurt early but i don't think that was only because of him.  The titans and browns improved when they changed to a better running back, although the browns were obviously more because of Baker. 

I get that the conventional wisdom is that teams can get by without a top running back but I'm struggling to think of examples where a team lost their top back and improved over their previous season. 

 
bostonfred said:
Pittsburgh 2017 13-3, made playoffs

Pittsburgh 2018 9-6-1 missed playoffs

(bell may be better than Gordon, but Conner played better than Ekeler)
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I don't think the RB position hurt the Steelers last season. Their kicker Boswell did hurt them.

 
At the end of the day...the way FA is set up is to the disadvantage of an RB.  In order to get to it, they have to release control of their market value via usage patterns.  By the time they do get to FA, they’ve already reached the tipping point in their careers.  The teams know this and the RB’s do too.

The only control they have is to withhold services in a manner that exposes their bodies to the least amount of damage.  Everybody criticized LeVeon saying he couldn’t make up what he passed up with the franchise tag.  But your next NFL contract in never guaranteed, especially RB’s.

 
bostonfred said:
I get that the conventional wisdom is that teams can get by without a top running back but I'm struggling to think of examples where a team lost their top back and improved over their previous season. 
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Vikings, 2014 - Adrian Peterson had been their top rusher for 7 straight years.  Didn't have him that year, went from 5-10-1 to 7-9.  Of course he came back the following year and they went 11-5 as he ran for like 1,500 yards.  Those two examples I guess are a wash.

 
I see a lot of talk about whether it is worth it for the Chargers to give Gordon extension, but what does this do to fantasy value.  The obvious answer is decline.  Where would you value him now?

 
smbkrypt24 said:
I see a lot of talk about whether it is worth it for the Chargers to give Gordon extension, but what does this do to fantasy value.  The obvious answer is decline.  Where would you value him now?
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It would depend on where he ends up of course but it’s hard to imagine a better spot than the Chargers (although he could see an o-line upgrade in a new place) with his heavy volume and great offense around him.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
It would depend on where he ends up of course but it’s hard to imagine a better spot than the Chargers (although he could see an o-line upgrade in a new place) with his heavy volume and great offense around him.
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So today right now.  What is the downgrade.  Where is he in your rankings?

 
smbkrypt24 said:
So today right now.  What is the downgrade.  Where is he in your rankings?
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He’d move out of the top 10 for me for sure. I don’t have everything in front of me but a rough guess would be RB13-15.

I’m getting the feeling he misses a lot of games this season and heads elsewhere next year. 

 
The Houston Chronicle's John McClain reports the Texans are not interested in trading for Melvin Gordon.

The Texans shockingly cut backup D'Onta Foreman on Sunday, sparking speculation they were in the market for Gordon. McClain shoots that speculation down, however, reporting the Texans are only interested in a backup for Lamar Miller. The Chargers also have not shown any signs they are willing to move Gordon. At this point, it would be a surprise if Gordon ended up in Houston.

RELATED: 

Lamar Miller

, Houston Texans

SOURCE: John McClain on Twitter

Aug 5, 2019, 10:01 AM ET
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Dr. Octopus said:
He’d move out of the top 10 for me for sure. I don’t have everything in front of me but a rough guess would be RB13-15.

I’m getting the feeling he misses a lot of games this season and heads elsewhere next year. 
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I may be more risk averse than you are, but I'd probably have Gordon around RB20. Even if he comes back, what kind of shape will he be in? Its possible even if Gordon plays out this final year, Ekeler will have a bigger role than he has the last 2 seasons. 

For comparisons sake, I'd probably have Ekeler as a top-30 RB right now. 

I 100% agree that Gordon is likely to miss games this year, and leave next year. Of course, I never thought he was going to be a Charger beyond his rookie deal. Not with his knees, and their team build.

 
smbkrypt24 said:
So today right now.  What is the downgrade.  Where is he in your rankings?
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I do a partial keeper auction league.

Gordon went for low 50s last year.

Because I think he will sign at some point (perhaps after missing a couple of games), I'd pay up to $20 for him. In my league, that is an unlikely winning bid. But- then again, auctions are different than drafts.

In a hypothetical dynasty draft, I'm still bullish enough to take him towards the back end of round 2. Again, that is unlikely to be enough.

In redraft- back end of round 3. Would need two building blocks before I start trading in hypothetical reporting dates.

 
I took him at 29 overall last night and today I kind of feel uncomfortable with it. Not sure I would do that if I was drafting today. 

 
travdogg said:
I'd disagree with all of this. They easily make the playoffs without Gordon. They went 4-0 without him last year, No RB is making a 12-4 team a non playoff team. It maybe costs them 1 game, maybe. KC took a big step backward this offseason on defense and possibly a small one on the o-line, plus now there is a year of tape on Mahomes. I'd bet on the Chargers winning the division regardless of Gordon's status. Hell, without Gordon, they are still better than KC at RB, maybe by quite a bit.

There is also no reason to assume Rivers doesn't hang around for 3-4 more years. He doesn't take a ton of hits, he doesn't leave the pocket, and he's still throwing a very good deep ball. 

The 3rd would be a year earlier and a lot higher than a compensatory pick. It would also allow the Chargers to get to work on extensions earlier with an extra 5.6 million to play with. 

Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but is a 3rd comp pick a lock? I thought those were based on salary, and its very possible that a RB doesn't have a top one. 
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I know this is a Gordon thread, not a Chiefs thread but hard to see how the 31st ranked D could have taken a big step backwards. Regression works both ways and their historically bad D is probably not going to be as historically bad (not to say it will be good).

 
greenline said:
I took him at 29 overall last night and today I kind of feel uncomfortable with it. Not sure I would do that if I was drafting today. 
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Right. It's like voluntarily signing up for what Leonard Fournette did to owner's last year (sans injury). Guy is undraftable, atm. Or at least to me, he's getting drafted a Round or 2 too early. Since the downside is he either doesn't play until playoffs have well been determined or doesn't play at all.

For your sake, I'm hoping the Chargers pony up the cashola so you got a steal!

 
HULLOBUDMAN said:
I know this is a Gordon thread, not a Chiefs thread but hard to see how the 31st ranked D could have taken a big step backwards. Regression works both ways and their historically bad D is probably not going to be as historically bad (not to say it will be good).
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The Chiefs D can certainly take a step backward. While they were 31st in yards allowed, they led the NFL in sacks, and were 2nd in D/ST TD's. Its very easy to see them being a worse defense, while also giving up fewer yards. 

 
Dr. Octopus said:
He’d move out of the top 10 for me for sure. I don’t have everything in front of me but a rough guess would be RB13-15.

I’m getting the feeling he misses a lot of games this season and heads elsewhere next year. 
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As things stand right now he's going RB#10.

It's worth noting.....

K.Johnson(DET)#15

D.Freeman(ATL)#16

M.Mack(IND)#18

J.Jacobs(OAK)#19

D.Henry(TEN)#20

M.Ingram(BAL)#22

C.Carson(SEA)#25

.... I wonder how far he falls if he doesn't show up by the 20th of August? The 1st of September? It would be less concerning if he hadn't referenced L.Bell several time in the past. Or if the chargers didn't have a track record of playing hard ball in these situations. It's strange to me so many people seem to trust the Gordon situation more than Carson right now.

For the record I said all along that the chargers would cave, but imo by offering him $10M when they didn't have to they already did cave and it still wasn't good enough for Gordon. If Gordon really is waiting for that L.Bell-type-deal he's going to be waiting for a very, very long time. The chargers aren't a legit SB contender with that OL even with Gordon. Some folks need to go back and re-watch that playoff game in NE if they think the chargers are on the cusp of a SB. The ONLY team that would give Gordon the workload he's needed to be a ProBowler is TB and they don't have nearly the cap room needed to make Gordon happy even if they wanted to acquire him.

 
ESPN's Adam Schefter reports holdout RB Melvin Gordon is prepared to sit out regular season games if he does not have a new before Week 1.

Per Schefter, the sides have "not made progress." Contract-year Gordon has seemed to be the most serious of this summer's holdouts. Le'Veon Bell is still more the exception than the rule, but it would be silly not to be worried about Gordon's Week 1 status. There is a real chance he is still away from the team. Austin Ekeler would start and be spelled by Justin Jackson.

SOURCE: Adam Schefter on Twitter

Aug 15, 2019, 7:37 PM ET
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Recent articles:

Why you can't compare the Ezekiel Elliott and Melvin Gordon holdouts to Le'Veon Bell's

Melvin Gordon holdout gets more and more expensive

According to the second article, he could be fined $30K per day for every day of training camp he missed. Chargers training camp this year ran from July 25 to August 16, a total of 23 days. So his total fines from missed training camp could be $690K.

According to that same article, he could be fined as much as $329K per preseason game he misses. So he is already subject to more than $1M in fines and about to miss another preseason game, which will push his potential fines above $1.3M.

So if he were to holdout and report after 8 regular season games, as some have speculated he could do, he would be subject to fines of $690K + $329K x 4 preseason games + $329K x 8 regular season games = $4.638M. If he reported after week 8 without a new deal and the team fined him the full amount, he would end up getting paid just $967K for the final 9 weeks of the regular season.

I realize that teams often waive fines if and when they come to terms with holdout players, so perhaps the threat of fines doesn't matter much to Gordon and isn't a real factor in this situation.

One thing I'm unclear on. Game-related fines are withheld from game checks and go to the NFL for a player fund. Does anyone know if that is the case for holding out and missing games? The article characterizes the $329K mentioned above as a fine. If that is the case, then isn't it true that the team saves no cash and also gets no cap relief if they uphold the fines? If so, I suppose I can see why the team has little motivation to uphold the fines, especially since if Gordon returns, they will want him to have as positive an attitude as possible given the situation in order to make a strong contribution to a possible deep playoff run.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Recent articles:

Why you can't compare the Ezekiel Elliott and Melvin Gordon holdouts to Le'Veon Bell's

Melvin Gordon holdout gets more and more expensive

According to the second article, he could be fined $30K per day for every day of training camp he missed. Chargers training camp this year ran from July 25 to August 16, a total of 23 days. So his total fines from missed training camp could be $690K.

According to that same article, he could be fined as much as $329K per preseason game he misses. So he is already subject to more than $1M in fines and about to miss another preseason game, which will push his potential fines above $1.3M.

So if he were to holdout and report after 8 regular season games, as some have speculated he could do, he would be subject to fines of $690K + $329K x 4 preseason games + $329K x 8 regular season games = $4.638M. If he reported after week 8 without a new deal and the team fined him the full amount, he would end up getting paid just $967K for the final 9 weeks of the regular season.

I realize that teams often waive fines if and when they come to terms with holdout players, so perhaps the threat of fines doesn't matter much to Gordon and isn't a real factor in this situation.

One thing I'm unclear on. Game-related fines are withheld from game checks and go to the NFL for a player fund. Does anyone know if that is the case for holding out and missing games? The article characterizes the $329K mentioned above as a fine. If that is the case, then isn't it true that the team saves no cash and also gets no cap relief if they uphold the fines? If so, I suppose I can see why the team has little motivation to uphold the fines, especially since if Gordon returns, they will want him to have as positive an attitude as possible given the situation in order to make a strong contribution to a possible deep playoff run.
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I can see where he thinks sitting out for a deal is better because paying fines would be worth it if he gets some guaranteed money with a new contract. Bell got $25m. he’s hoping for the same or more. 

He forgot that he’s negotiating with the Chargers though

 
Did a $250 FFPC best ball draft a couple days back, ended up taking Gordon at 40 overall and RB22, felt like it was worth it at that point. Someone sniped Ekeler from me at 60 overall though, so I didn't get handcuff him.

 
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mcintyre1 said:
Did a $250 FFPC best ball draft a couple days back, ended up taking Gordon at 40 overall and RB22, felt like it was worth it at that point. Someone sniped Ekeler from me at 60 overall though, so I didn't get handcuff him.
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In a $250 BB draft right now and he's still on the board at 4.09. He's gonna be there a while.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
Melvin is getting poor career advice
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I disagree.  The violent way he runs and his injury history he's not going to have a long NFL career.  Putting off his big deal another year only hurts him imo.  The current CBA is terrible for RB's who generally have short shelf lives.  They shouldn't be under their rookie deal for essentially 5 years. 

 
Pipes said:
I disagree.  The violent way he runs and his injury history he's not going to have a long NFL career.  Putting off his big deal another year only hurts him imo.  The current CBA is terrible for RB's who generally have short shelf lives.  They shouldn't be under their rookie deal for essentially 5 years. 
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He still has to play games this year, and nobody is giving him big money next year.   His best bet was to show that he’s invaluable to this team and get them to either a) pick up his 5th year option or b) extend him.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
He still has to play games this year, and nobody is giving him big money next year.   His best bet was to show that he’s invaluable to this team and get them to either a) pick up his 5th year option or b) extend him.
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They did that.  May of 2018.  He then went out and got 1,375 yards from scrimmage and 14 TDs in 12 games.  That's why he's holding out. 

 
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Alex P Keaton said:
He still has to play games this year, and nobody is giving him big money next year.   His best bet was to show that he’s invaluable to this team and get them to either a) pick up his 5th year option or b) extend him.
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How do you know this?  I know he won't get Leveon Bell money but someone will likely pay him at least a decent contract as long as he doesn't tear an acl or some other catastrophic injury...hench the holdout.  He'll report halfway through the season to get his 5th year unlike Leveon did.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
He still has to play games this year, and nobody is giving him big money next year.   His best bet was to show that he’s invaluable to this team and get them to either a) pick up his 5th year option or b) extend him.
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I agree with this.  Dude is a good back, but he is just not in the same league as Bell, Gurley, Saquon, etc.  I think LAC understands this, and know they can perform really well with J Jax and Ekeler (undefeated in 4 games last year).

First, while I agree that there is no doubt that the CBA is unkind to rookie RBs, it is still the governing contract.  Second, the value of a player is determined by the market.  Unfortunately for Gordon, he is entering his 5th year with an injury history and rightly or wrongly many perceive a at least a portion of his value as the LAC system and offense.  Not hearing much in the way of interest in a trade opportunity from the daily news.  Seriously, who is going to guarantee Melvin $13 Million a year + give up a meaningful draft pick?  HOU just took Duke for $3 Million in guaranteed 2019 money.  Not saying Duke is Melvin, but Duke is a good back and man that is a HUGE spread.  Miller is costing them $7M in 2019 cap space.  So Duke + Miller = Melvin offer on the table.  Plus LAC has JJAX and Ekeler, who they have for $1.3M combined.  Third, since he won't be a UFA if he sits the entire year, they can toll his contract and he will basically be in the same position next year if he doesn't play.  That's a horrible position to be in; LAC could totally screw him if he comes back in like Week 10 (see next point).  Fourth, as has been pointed out, the opportunity cost of forgone salary at $10 Million / year + the fines he is accruing is gut wrenching (at least to me).  $10 Million is a lot of money and I think squarely puts him compensation wise in that "extremely-good-but-not-elite" tier.  

So, yeah, I see LAC as having all the leverage, this stunt costing Melvin a ton of money - and he is getting some really bad advice.  I think he is back sooner rather than later, so I will take him in the 4th round.

 
If he really was offered a deal better than Freeman as reported, and declined it, then yes - he is getting bad advice.  If it's a crap deal and doesn't have the guaranteed money, I can't argue with what he's doing. 

 
RB's basically get only 1 big contract in their entire career - their second contract.  By the time the third rolls around, they are usually toast.  MG is simply playing the odds that he can stay healthy for the second half of 2019.  If he can, SOMEONE will pay.

 
The Chargers have demonstrated commitment to Gordon at least 4 times:

  1. By trading up to draft him with their 2015 first round pick and giving up 2 additional picks to do so.
  2. Sticking with him as their primary RB after a disastrous rookie season, in which he averaged 3.5 ypc and 5.8 ypr, scored 0 TDs, had 6 fumbles, and missed 2 games.
  3. Picking up his 5th year option in May 2018 despite the fact that his career ypc was 3.8, he had only played every game in 1 of 3 seasons, and he had a history of multiple knee injuries, including microfracture surgery in the 2016 offseason.
  4. Reportedly offering him a contract this offseason that would pay him an average of $10M per season.
#2 may not mean much since he was only 1 year removed from being their first round draft pick.

To the extent that "only" earning $5.6M in a football season can be viewed as unfortunate, it is unfortunate for Gordon that he chose to play the RB position and that the NFLPA agreed to the rules that are currently in place relating to salary cap, 5th year options, etc. But those are realities of his chosen profession.

It has been reported that:

  • The Chargers have offered a deal a bit better than Freeman's contract: 5 years, $41.25M, $15M signing bonus, $22M guaranteed.
  • Gordon wants a contract like David Johnson's: 3 years, $39M, $12M signing bonus, $31.9M guaranteed. 
  • The Chargers have offered an average of $10M per year.
  • The Chargers and Gordon are $2M to $3M apart.
So one might speculate that the Chargers have offered him something like 4 years, $40M, $12M signing bonus, $22M guaranteed, where the guarantee would cover 2019 and 2020 salary plus signing bonus, meaning the team could get out after 2020 with a $6M dead cap hit or after 2021 with a $3M cap hit.

If that is close to what they have offered, IMO the best choice for Gordon would be to take the Chargers' offer. I suspect he will get more total money and more total guaranteed money if he does that rather than holding out for some number of regular season games this year and then hitting the free agent market next offseason.

As a Chargers fan, I hope he doesn't take it and walks after this season. The way the rules are structured, I don't want the Chargers to spend $10M per year on a single RB, especially not one with an extensive injury history. I'd much rather them draft another RB next year and re-sign Ekeler to a much lower deal.

 
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What am I missing here?

Gordon subject to $30K in fines per day of missed camp. Plus a weeks worth of reg season pay for every preseason game missed. Making $5.6M, 1/16th of that is $350K. 

So 4 preseason games at $350K a pop and $30K for 28 days (I don’t actually know how many days camp is so I assumed 28) is $2,240,000. 

He has to play 1/2 the year so I’m assuming he will only make 1/2 his salary? That’s $2,800,000. So the difference is $560,000. 

Seems to me the best case scenario for the Chargers which is also the worst case for Melvin is that he reports 1/2 way through the season and they only have to pay him $560K. 

Is there additional fines for skipping reg season games?

If he doesn’t report at all, he owes them $2,240,000? Then will accumulate additional fines next preseason if he’s not reporting.

Chargers hold all the cards here. I’d be giving a deadline to sign the deal or it’s off the table. Melvin has to realize he can’t win.

 
Patrick the Pirate said:
What am I missing here?

Gordon subject to $30K in fines per day of missed camp. Plus a weeks worth of reg season pay for every preseason game missed. Making $5.6M, 1/16th of that is $350K. 

So 4 preseason games at $350K a pop and $30K for 28 days (I don’t actually know how many days camp is so I assumed 28) is $2,240,000. 

He has to play 1/2 the year so I’m assuming he will only make 1/2 his salary? That’s $2,800,000. So the difference is $560,000. 

Seems to me the best case scenario for the Chargers which is also the worst case for Melvin is that he reports 1/2 way through the season and they only have to pay him $560K. 

Is there additional fines for skipping reg season games?

If he doesn’t report at all, he owes them $2,240,000? Then will accumulate additional fines next preseason if he’s not reporting.

Chargers hold all the cards here. I’d be giving a deadline to sign the deal or it’s off the table. Melvin has to realize he can’t win.
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That's if the Chargers actually enforce the fines.  Not many teams do that.  I'm hoping that Gordon actually signs the deal he was offered (or something close to it) before the regular season.  It would be a smart move, and immediately give him top 5 money at the position I believe. 

 
matttyl said:
That's if the Chargers actually enforce the fines.  Not many teams do that.  I'm hoping that Gordon actually signs the deal he was offered (or something close to it) before the regular season.  It would be a smart move, and immediately give him top 5 money at the position I believe. 
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If he’s not going to sign their deal then why wouldn’t they enforce the fines? Use that as part of their bargaining. If you don’t sign this deal, show up for the last 8 games and we will run you into the ground for basically free. As stated above, this is the best case scenario for the Chargers. Melvin has to give his all those games because he’s auditioning for free agency. 

 
Patrick the Pirate said:
If he’s not going to sign their deal then why wouldn’t they enforce the fines? Use that as part of their bargaining. If you don’t sign this deal, show up for the last 8 games and we will run you into the ground for basically free. As stated above, this is the best case scenario for the Chargers. Melvin has to give his all those games because he’s auditioning for free agency. 
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Again, most teams show a sign of good faith and say that they won't enforce at least the training camp fines.  I think they have to, and will, enforce the regular season ones.  Not sure how preseason games work, that could be up to the team as well. 

 
Patrick the Pirate said:
What am I missing here?

Gordon subject to $30K in fines per day of missed camp. Plus a weeks worth of reg season pay for every preseason game missed. Making $5.6M, 1/16th of that is $350K. 

So 4 preseason games at $350K a pop and $30K for 28 days (I don’t actually know how many days camp is so I assumed 28) is $2,240,000. 

He has to play 1/2 the year so I’m assuming he will only make 1/2 his salary? That’s $2,800,000. So the difference is $560,000. 

Seems to me the best case scenario for the Chargers which is also the worst case for Melvin is that he reports 1/2 way through the season and they only have to pay him $560K. 

Is there additional fines for skipping reg season games?

If he doesn’t report at all, he owes them $2,240,000? Then will accumulate additional fines next preseason if he’s not reporting.

Chargers hold all the cards here. I’d be giving a deadline to sign the deal or it’s off the table. Melvin has to realize he can’t win.
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Agree Patrick.  This is why I am comfortable drafting him.  He has literally zero bargaining power.  Bad career advice from his agent.  The big ? in my mind is if the $10 Million is guaranteed or not.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
So he's going to lose (at least part of) $5.6MM this year by turning down a $10MM a year extension because he wants $13MM a year (a figure he's unlikely to see on the open market)? Seems like a really poor decision.
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All depends on the guarantees of that $10m a year (was it an extension, or was a brand new deal starting now?).  If an extension, I can see his angle here - "you want to start paying me $10m a year next year (no idea on guarantees), or I can miss half this year and make myself worth $12m a year with possible better guarantees."  If the deal he was offered was a brand new starting over deal better than what Freeman got, he should have taken it. 

 
David Dodds @fbg_dodds

I am expecting Melvin Gordon to show up in week 10 to accrue his fifth-year season only.

Gordon stands to get a lot more money in free agency than he can get by playing significant games with the Chargers. The Chargers are unlikely to franchise him for the $12+M next year if he shows up in week 10.

IMO, the Chargers will ride Ekeler and Jackson similarly to how the Saints used Kamara and Ingram last season. Ekeler will get a lot of touches, but Jackson will also have a decent role.

Because the team will get a very good compensatory pick eventually when they lose Gordon, they are going to be willing to eat the pro-rated $5M contract this season for the number of games Gordon plays.

I put this holdout 90+% on the team as it could have been mitigated with a simple sitdown that would have led to a trade of Gordon.

The Chargers likely should have dealt him before the draft as there was no way they were going to ever offer more than 2 years, $20M and he was never going to take that. They have zero desire to sign him to a longterm deal.

 
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Penguin said:
David Dodds @fbg_dodds

I am expecting Melvin Gordon to show up in week 10 to accrue his fifth-year season only.

Gordon stands to get a lot more money in free agency than he can get by playing significant games with the Chargers. The Chargers are unlikely to franchise him for the $12+M next year if he shows up in week 10.

IMO, the Chargers will ride Ekeler and Jackson similarly to how the Saints used Kamara and Ingram last season. Ekeler will get a lot of touches, but Jackson will also have a decent role.

Because the team will get a very good compensatory pick eventually when they lose Gordon, they are going to be willing to eat the pro-rated $5M contract this season for the number of games Gordon plays.

I put this holdout 90+% on the team as it could have been mitigated with a simple sitdown that would have led to a trade of Gordon.

The Chargers likely should have dealt him before the draft as there was no way they were going to ever offer more than 2 years, $20M and he was never going to take that. They have zero desire to sign him to a longterm deal.
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This is the part I don't get. This is ideal for the Chargers. They get to ride him into the ground for 1/2 season for not a lot of $. Why would they trade him?

Next year who is going to be interested in signing a 27 year old RB for 3 years at $12M??? You could just use a 2nd round draft pick on a comparable RB and get him for cheap for 5 years.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
So he's going to lose (at least part of) $5.6MM this year by turning down a $10MM a year extension because he wants $13MM a year (a figure he's unlikely to see on the open market)? Seems like a really poor decision.
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He will get guaranteed money north of that 16M imo.

Which is what RBs are more concerned about.

 
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