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RB Melvin Gordon, BAL (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter gianmarco
- Start date
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
This situation is fantastic for dyno owners that own both. You'll be walking into 2 RB1's or RB1/High RB2 next season. Maybe slightly lower in non-ppr leagues.Alex P Keaton said:
Deamon
Footballguy
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
Too many variables at play to make any assumption about the roles they will play,
However it IS safe to draw the assumption that Gordon is the inferior back based on the data at hand.
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Insoxicated
My best guess (and that’s all any of these are, if we’re honest).
Run: 55 MG / 40 AE / 5 Other
Pass: 65 AE / 30 MG / 5 Other
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Lol. The data being Ekeler’s stats while playing a change of pace role and 3 games as a starter? Seems conclusive!
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
The key is that he started some games at the end of last year, where he struggled big time. He's getting a chance to start again this year and it's so far seemed he's figured a lot of things out. Maybe still too short to be fully conclusive, but definitely a strong turn in the right direction.
rockaction
Footballguy
He's the number eight graded back in PFF's grading/offensive rank system.
He doesn't rate highly as a runner but earns over ninety for pass catching, etc.
eta* Whoops. I'm talking about Ekeler. Wrong thread.
He doesn't rate highly as a runner but earns over ninety for pass catching, etc.
eta* Whoops. I'm talking about Ekeler. Wrong thread.
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Definitely better this year. But still not anything special on the ground at 4.2 ypc. And the Chargers are not giving him the rushing work that they gave Melvin. That means something. He continues to kill it through the air and will still see work there. Small sample sizes and all that acknowledged.
Pipes
Footballguy
Yeah this I was being sarcastic about Ekeler being superior. Don’t get me wrong he’s a very good back and yes the gap between him and Gordon isn’t that great and certainly not millions of dollars worth of different. But to cherry pick a few advanced metrics based on limited snaps vs a workhorse...come on lol.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
LA is 1-2 and has lost to Houston and Detroit. The offense managed 10 pts versus the Lions. Hard to believe they wouldn’t have a better chance at 2-1 if Gordon had been active.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
The idea of a 50/50 split is not very realistic for obvious reasons. The only time we see a RBBC or a split in touches is usually when the RBs are not that good/great and even then it's just until one of the RBs proves to be more productive.
When have you ever seen a 50/50 split in number of meaningful carries/touches/catches? Where is that happening or you can point to recently that actually worked?
2003: Priest/Larry Johnson...it wasn't 50/50
'06-'07: LT/Turner...was never 50/50
Injuries will play a bigger role and Gordon is known to miss a couple games during the season.
When have you ever seen a 50/50 split in number of meaningful carries/touches/catches? Where is that happening or you can point to recently that actually worked?
2003: Priest/Larry Johnson...it wasn't 50/50
'06-'07: LT/Turner...was never 50/50
Injuries will play a bigger role and Gordon is known to miss a couple games during the season.
matttyl
Footballguy
What do people think the situation will actually be next year? Both are free agents. Is there any chance that both are out of LA (and Justin Jackson remains)?
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Ekeler is RFA, think LAC will be prepared to match offers if need be. What do you think teams will offer to pay Ekeler?
Gordon is gone I think but I also believe at this point he has figured out he isn't worth a whole lot more than he currently makes whether he likes it or not.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Not saying it will happen, but what if Ekeler follows suit and refuses to play for the low dollar amount that the Chargers may be able to pay him? It's doubtful Ekeler holds out into the season, but Bell seemingly has started a movement by some RB's . . .
BoltBacker
Footballguy
With neutral game script I think the split would be closer to 55/35/10 but I just don't think the chargers are as good as everyone is saying they are.
That OL is just horrible and won't really be improving anytime soon, if anything they are more likely that one of those five guys gets hurt and the wheels REALLY come off at that point. Anyone that thinks Gordon was the reason the chargers were 1-2 are in for a rude awakening. The next four teams they face are a combined (1-11) this year but just before the bye they play @CHI, GB(which let's be honest will have more green and gold in the stadium no matter where the game is getting played), and KC(there will probably be more Mahomes jerseys in the stands than charger jerseys combined). Those playoff caliber teams will really expose this charger team imo.
I expect the chargers to be in passing situations and behind often for the rest of the season so a 45/45/10 split may be more reasonable than most people think just based on the fact Ekeler has such a big role in the passing game. Not saying Ekeler is so good, or that Gordon is so bad, just saying the chargers are pretty bad and adding Gordon doesn't make them all that much better because RB wasn't really among the biggest problems on the lac roster.
Clearly none of us actually know, but I'm banking on him being a top back again/am trying to trade for him with the uncertainty depressing his value. Could obviously blow up in my face because the cost is going to be high, but hey, that's why we play Fantsy Football right?
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I think the more likely movement will be by the owners more so than the players. Not because of the charger situation but because of the Cowboy situation. Do you really want to completely build your offense around a RB and then that one guy can hold the franchise hostage even if he's under contract? At the QB position you kind of have to be all in, but you can manage how you build and use a group of RB's.
I expect NFL teams to draft RB's slightly higher and be less inclined to give ANY RB more than ~60% of touches for several reasons. First, it keeps the player better rested and healthy so he can do more with his touches. Second, it takes away leverage during contract negotiations because you avoid the "Zeke IS the offense!" situation. Third, if you are drafting guys and more importantly giving them playing time(even if they aren't quite as good as Zeke) the rookie is actually developing through experience and insulating your team from possible injury(or holdout) risk to Zeke. Fourth, if you have a group of 3(or even 4) versatile guys at RB/FB it actually isn't the end of the world if you need to go out in FA and find one guy to fill a specific niche because the salary of RB's in FA is more reasonable than other positions.
Everyone acts like this is part of a movement for RB's to exert force to be treated fairly. IMO it's much more likely these holdouts will start a movement by ownership/coaching to rely on any ONE RB less and less. If it's a playoff game, sure give Kamara 80%+ of the touches out of the backfield. But for the bulk of a 16 games season that just doesn't make sense even if it makes fantasy owners happy. It may not even make sense for an Alvin Kamara himself if he could have a 12yr career touching the ball 55% of the time, versus a 7 year career touching the ball 85% of the time. I look at a guy like McCaffrey and think it's a shame the amount of abuse he's taking and it has to be shortening his career.
Tau837
Footballguy
They also may not have defeated Indy if Gordon was there. Ekeler had 154 yards and 3 TDs on 18 touches. No way Gordon would have replicated that, and Ekeler wouldn't have gotten all of those touches if Gordon was there.
Tau837
Footballguy
Just off the top of my head:
- The Chargers did it in 2013 with Ryan Mathews and Woodhead. It was extremely effective.
- They did it again in 2015, and Woodhead was very effective while Gordon was terrible.
lol their RBs had 197 yards combined against Detroit. And those teams are 4-1-1 in their other six games.
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The Frankman
Footballguy
This Twitter user summarizes the Melvin Gordon holdout in one GIF.
I mean... it's not his fault Ekeler played like a champ but ouch...
I mean... it's not his fault Ekeler played like a champ but ouch...
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Insoxicated
2 week roster exemption, so looks like a week 6 return for Gordon.
IMO I’m guessing at:
rushing: 55/35/10 split Gordon
receiving: 60/30/10 split Ekeler
Will they ease Gordon in?
Will the run him into the ground?
Time will tell. Anyone claiming. To know for sure is fooling themselves.
IMO I’m guessing at:
rushing: 55/35/10 split Gordon
receiving: 60/30/10 split Ekeler
Will they ease Gordon in?
Will the run him into the ground?
Time will tell. Anyone claiming. To know for sure is fooling themselves.
Weebs210
Footballguy
He can still play next week even with a 2 week roster exemption. Up to the coaches.2 week roster exemption, so looks like a week 6 return for Gordon.
IMO I’m guessing at:
rushing: 55/35/10 split Gordon
receiving: 60/30/10 split Ekeler
Will they ease Gordon in?
Will the run him into the ground?
Time will tell. Anyone claiming. To know for sure is fooling themselves.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
My only other running backs are Adrian Peterson, Tarik Cohen, Malcolm Brown, Dontrell Hilliard, Rasheem Mostert, and Darrel Williams. So yeah, Gordon is going in my starting line up as soon as he is activate.2 week roster exemption, so looks like a week 6 return for Gordon.
IMO I’m guessing at:
rushing: 55/35/10 split Gordon
receiving: 60/30/10 split Ekeler
Will they ease Gordon in?
Will the run him into the ground?
Time will tell. Anyone claiming. To know for sure is fooling themselves.
Dude is trying to secure a $13MM+ per year contract and likely $25-35MM+ guaranteed at the only stage of his career that he has the opportunity to do that. And he attempted to use the only leverage he has available to him to accomplish that objective. Pretty sure Melvin Gordon (a) weighed the cost/benefit of losing a few $300K game checks vs the likelihood that his holdout might result in the Chargers caving and conceding an extra $1-3MM+ per year in out years to get him on the field this year and (b) is glad that you're not his agent.
Melvin, you clearly haven't thought this out! I don't care that you're almost guaranteed $10MM+ per year moving forward if you simply avoid injury this year, nor do I give a rats ### that you'll likely get $25MM+ guaranteed. And quite frankly, it's not my concern that you're only making $4.5MM this year, and are risking that $10MM+ per year and $25MM+ guaranteed every time you step on the field. You'll get your ### out there and damn well like it, ACL's, MCL's, PCL's, broken bones, and concussions be damned. You hear me?!
That one loss was the Saints without Drew Brees, against the undefeated Rams.
The Chargers are a very good team that happens to be 1-2. Frankly, I think they are quite a bit better than the 3-0 Bills, who have played nothing but bottom feeders.
matttyl
Footballguy
BoltNlava
Footballguy
Ummm..NO? What did his SHORT holdout net him in the end? Anyone? The bolded doesnt help your argument as he had no leverage. None. Zero. With this white flag move he has even less. Let's see if he goes all out for his teamates or shows he's worried about injury. Not sold on all out atm. Do I get what you're saying? Yes. Do I agree? No. We shall soon see what he is going to bring to the Chargers. My guess is a small bump in rb production but not enough to be paid like the likes of Gurley et all. Even those guys have contracts that might illicit a head scratch or two(Elliot excepted so far, maybe, kinda).
I wouldn't go that far. Dallas has been blowing out the bottom feeders, Buffalo has barely been scraping by, and could easily be 1-2 themselves.
Yeah, it didn't work. That doesn't mean it was a "bad decision." Do you want me to spell out what his holdout didn't get him? It didn't get him hurt the past two months. That's what it didn't get him. And regardless of you feeling like he had zero leverage, I guarantee you a team with a 37 year old franchise QB with Super Bowl aspirations cares that their RB1 wasn't on the field to start the season. Did they care enough to increase their supposed offer from $10MM to $13MM per year? Clearly not. That doesn't mean that Gordon had zero leverage, or that he made a "bad decision" by holding out. That talk is nonsense, and anyone with an ounce of financial sense understands that.
BoltNlava
Footballguy
Ok....The Chargers want thier money back. They are going after the fines levied so far. Does that say "OMG WE MISSED YOU SO MUCH!" ? No. But you know what? You absolutely might be right. I admit that. I'm saying I think you're not. I'm as sure of this stance as you are. I respect your position and would only ask you this...Why did the Cowboys pay Elliot and the Chargers not pay Gordon? My position is Gordon is no Elliot. Everyone see's that. Everyone. As for Rivers. Yes he's old and and whatever you think but he has nothing to do with Gordons situation as has been shown by Charger's brass and the great work of Ekler and Jackson. Mistakes have been made by the hapless Chargers ,many in the past of Rivers tenure. This has been what it is for 10 + years. Gordon has no bearing on that. At least that's what most in the know believe. As far as financial sense...lol
Tau837
Footballguy
Assume your 10% portion of splits is Jackson. I think Jackson will be closer to 0-5%. He has not performed well in the passing game this year, and he has been terrible at pass blocking. Ekeler is great in the passing game and solid at pass blocking and Gordon is solid/good at both, so Jackson won't likely see any passing downs ahead of the other two unless someone gets hurt. I expect that will keep him off the field for the most part.
Tau837
Footballguy
Gordon had no leverage, as has now been proven. The Chargers didn't cave, Gordon caved. Your statement makes no sense.
Furthermore, in his absence, a UDFA (Ekeler) and 7th round pick (Jackson) thrived, which made Gordon look replaceable, or at least closer to it than he would have had he not held out.
Gordon is subject to approximately $2M in fines for missed preseason training camp and games and about $1.3M in regular season checks, assuming he doesn't get paid for week 4. So in the end he may have given up about $3M, more than half of this year's salary, in order to make himself look foolish and possibly replaceable.
He got terrible advice and should fire his agent.
The Cowboys paid Zeke because he's the 23 year old engine that drives their offense and based upon that he had an insane amount of leverage when combined with the fact that he had two years left on his contract. Gordon is not even remotely as critical to the Chargers, they've clearly decided he's not worth more than $10MM per year moving forward, and he was in the last year of his deal. But he's still important to the Chargers and impactful to their W's and L's. Again, I'm not claiming the Chargers were ever going to change their offer. But Gordon's holdout was his only means by which to truly find out and as an added benefit, it allowed him to avoid two months of practices and a month of games where he wasn't subjected to a career altering injury that would severely impact the relative jackpot he might hit this coming offseason.
leftcoastheel
Footballguy
Does he get his $10 Million? Or is he playing under his rookie deal? If the latter, holding out for four games was a truly terrible idea. I guess he "saved" himself from injury for five games.
SMH - I got this one wrong, thought he'd have been back day 1 - the way he and his agent handled this makes no sense!
SMH - I got this one wrong, thought he'd have been back day 1 - the way he and his agent handled this makes no sense!
BoltNlava
Footballguy
The injury angle is not as viable as you think. Every minute presents injury possibilities. If he was worried about injuries he should realize then that he is in the wrong business. EVERY time you set foot on a football field injury is possible. Period. Don't sign if you don't want to risk that. He may be setting himself up for injury moreso from this holdout. We don't know. What I do know is that holdouts lead to soft tissue injuries. We have seen that over and over. Missed games with checks are better though right?
I think even Gordon likely realized that he had little to no leverage. That's beside the point. As I said, withholding his services (which are clearly valued by his employer or they wouldn't have offered a $10MM per year contract) was the only leverage available to him. Did his employer cave to his demands? Nope. But can you answer whether the Chargers might be 2-1 instead of 1-2 if they had Gordon? You'll never know. But I bet the Chargers wish he had reported before Week 1.
And made himself look foolish, received terrible advice and should fire his agent? Because he felt that he wasn't being paid what he deserves? Give me a break. My word.
I guess we'll see what the NFL market thinks about Gordon as "replaceable" this offseason, provided he gets through the year healthy. (For the record, I don't think he's a $10MM per year RB, but I'll be willing to bet that 1 out of 32 teams feels differently.)
matttyl
Footballguy
I didn't even think he was eligible to play. If he is, wouldn't the Dolphins be the perfect team to have him play against to get him up to speed?
BoltNlava
Footballguy
BoltNlava
Footballguy
Dark Helmet will never let a non BRADY shine more than his glint. RB's wr"s and D lineman know this sad truth.i'd start 10 snaps of melvin gordon over my current rb2 (michel)
