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***Official Melvin "Flash" Gordon*** Thread of Love

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43 minutes ago, Vandelay said:

Co-signed.  Ive never been an MG proponent or had him on any team until a recent trade, but I see a big year coming.  Lots of TDs to be had in that revamped offense.  Lindsay isn't going away but I can pretty easily envision a 250+ point ppr campaign, which should be good for an RB1 level season.

I'm going the other way here. I think Lindsay is a better runner than Gordon. Lindsay is also a worse pass catcher and a far worse pass blocker. I'm thinking this could be about a 55-45 split, with Gordon seeing a large majority of the passing game work, but pretty close in carries. 

I view Gordon as a low end RB2, and Lindsay as an ok flex option. Unless the Broncos score a lot more TD's as an offense, like 10-15 more than a year ago, I think it'll be tough for there to be RB1 numbers for anyone, and Freeman likely just slots in if Gordon/Lindsay go down.

I start looking at Gordon in round 4 of a redraft right now.

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50 minutes ago, travdogg said:

I'm going the other way here. I think Lindsay is a better runner than Gordon. Lindsay is also a worse pass catcher and a far worse pass blocker. I'm thinking this could be about a 55-45 split, with Gordon seeing a large majority of the passing game work, but pretty close in carries. 

I view Gordon as a low end RB2, and Lindsay as an ok flex option. Unless the Broncos score a lot more TD's as an offense, like 10-15 more than a year ago, I think it'll be tough for there to be RB1 numbers for anyone, and Freeman likely just slots in if Gordon/Lindsay go down.

I start looking at Gordon in round 4 of a redraft right now.

They were the 5th lowest scoring offense last year with 282 points, so adding 10-15 TDs would put them in the 350-375 range, which would have been good for pretty much middle of the pack last year.  I definitely think that's doable with the additions of Jeudy, Hamler, and Gordon to go along with continued growth from Sutton and Fant.  Lock has to perform and that is a legit question mark, but I love the blend of weapons on offense.  Feel like it will be difficult not to succeed with that cast.

I like Lindsay a lot, let me just get that out.  Hes been overlooked at every step and he just produces whenever he gets a shot.  Glad you mentioned Gordon is the better 3rd down back because it feels like most viewed him as that to Royster as a 2 down guy.  

So while I like Lindsay and think he'll be involved for sure, the Broncos have made it pretty clear they intend to utilize Gordon heavily, both with their words and their money.  55/45 seems generous to me, but even if it winds up there...last year, Lindsay and Freeman combined for 98 targets.  Let's pencil in Gordon for 70, considering we're orojecting the offense to be better and hes just a better receiving back in general.  His career catch rate is 75% and he averages 8.4 ypr.  Apply those averages to 70 targets and you get 52 receptions for 436 yards.  Throw in 2-3 TDs and thats roughly 110 points before we get to rushing stats.

Last year, the teams in the middle of the pack in scoring averaged about 1700-1800 yards rushing, and around 15 TDs.  Let's go with your 55% of the rushing yards and since he's always had a nose for the goalie, lets give him 9 of the TDs.  Thats about 950 yards and another 150 ppr points.  Where does that leave us?

260 points on a middle of the pack offense, which would have put him in the RB7-10 mix last year.  And again, this is only for a middle of the pack offense.  Theres plenty more upside if Lock turns out to be *actually* good.

Personally, I think Denver sniffs more around a top 10-15 offense and Gordon gets more than 55% of the work, so I see 300 point upside.  Its always dangerous to use last years point thresholds to project current year finishes, which is why I wanted to put this into pure points.  And honestly I hadn't run the numbers so I was more doing this for myself than to prove a point or anything.  Was genuinely curious.  The results do align with the generalities I had in my head though, so thats nice lol.

I really don't play redraft anymore, just dynasty, so no clue where I'd take him there.  I expect a two year window for this level of production so I am a dynasty buyer.  Hes not sexy and therefore able to be acquired. Everybody flocks to the younger RBs like Jacobs and Sanders, and sure they theoretically have more value because of age, but i see MG putting up more points the next two seasons than both of em.  Two years is an eternity particularly with RBs.  Projecting further out is almost pointless.

So yeah, I consider him a steal.  Aaron Jones too, for all almost all the same reasons except he's also a better player.

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9 hours ago, Vandelay said:

They were the 5th lowest scoring offense last year with 282 points, so adding 10-15 TDs would put them in the 350-375 range, which would have been good for pretty much middle of the pack last year.  I definitely think that's doable with the additions of Jeudy, Hamler, and Gordon to go along with continued growth from Sutton and Fant.  Lock has to perform and that is a legit question mark, but I love the blend of weapons on offense.  Feel like it will be difficult not to succeed with that cast.

I like Lindsay a lot, let me just get that out.  Hes been overlooked at every step and he just produces whenever he gets a shot.  Glad you mentioned Gordon is the better 3rd down back because it feels like most viewed him as that to Royster as a 2 down guy.  

So while I like Lindsay and think he'll be involved for sure, the Broncos have made it pretty clear they intend to utilize Gordon heavily, both with their words and their money.  55/45 seems generous to me, but even if it winds up there...last year, Lindsay and Freeman combined for 98 targets.  Let's pencil in Gordon for 70, considering we're orojecting the offense to be better and hes just a better receiving back in general.  His career catch rate is 75% and he averages 8.4 ypr.  Apply those averages to 70 targets and you get 52 receptions for 436 yards.  Throw in 2-3 TDs and thats roughly 110 points before we get to rushing stats.

Last year, the teams in the middle of the pack in scoring averaged about 1700-1800 yards rushing, and around 15 TDs.  Let's go with your 55% of the rushing yards and since he's always had a nose for the goalie, lets give him 9 of the TDs.  Thats about 950 yards and another 150 ppr points.  Where does that leave us?

260 points on a middle of the pack offense, which would have put him in the RB7-10 mix last year.  And again, this is only for a middle of the pack offense.  Theres plenty more upside if Lock turns out to be *actually* good.

Personally, I think Denver sniffs more around a top 10-15 offense and Gordon gets more than 55% of the work, so I see 300 point upside.  Its always dangerous to use last years point thresholds to project current year finishes, which is why I wanted to put this into pure points.  And honestly I hadn't run the numbers so I was more doing this for myself than to prove a point or anything.  Was genuinely curious.  The results do align with the generalities I had in my head though, so thats nice lol.

I really don't play redraft anymore, just dynasty, so no clue where I'd take him there.  I expect a two year window for this level of production so I am a dynasty buyer.  Hes not sexy and therefore able to be acquired. Everybody flocks to the younger RBs like Jacobs and Sanders, and sure they theoretically have more value because of age, but i see MG putting up more points the next two seasons than both of em.  Two years is an eternity particularly with RBs.  Projecting further out is almost pointless.

So yeah, I consider him a steal.  Aaron Jones too, for all almost all the same reasons except he's also a better player.

Excellent post, and thank you for going into detail. I do find a few things I disagree with, but I appreciate the content.

I think the 75% catch rate and 8.4 YPR are probably wishful thinking. Philip Rivers might be the best QB in the NFL at hitting flat routes and swing routes in stride. Guys are almost always going full speed when he hits them. I highly doubt Drew Lock will be able to do that,  we'll see that issue effect Austin Ekeler too this year, and probably Hines/Mack will see a big increase in how effective they are as receivers.

I do agree with the weapons that Denver has added, the offense should be better, perhaps much better,  but Lock is a major question mark. I'd love to have seen Denver do something at QB, because they have nothing if Lock doesn't pan out. They should be in on Cam Newton,  and probably should have been on Winston too. Maybe Alex Smith if he is healthy? Maybe I am pessimistic, but Lock didn't really show me anything last year. 

I'd be very surprised if Gordon was better than Jacobs or Sanders over the next 2 seasons. I think both will see more work than Gordon, and Sanders is in a better offense. Where as I see Gordon at 55%, I see Sanders at 75% and Jacobs at 80%. Those guys simply don't have to deal with the competition that Gordon has for carries. Its possible Gordon outdoes Jacobs in the receiving game, especially if Lynn Bowden takes to RB quickly, but he won't touch Sanders, who could catch 75+ passes. 

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16 minutes ago, travdogg said:

Excellent post, and thank you for going into detail. I do find a few things I disagree with, but I appreciate the content.

I think the 75% catch rate and 8.4 YPR are probably wishful thinking. Philip Rivers might be the best QB in the NFL at hitting flat routes and swing routes in stride. Guys are almost always going full speed when he hits them. I highly doubt Drew Lock will be able to do that,  we'll see that issue effect Austin Ekeler too this year, and probably Hines/Mack will see a big increase in how effective they are as receivers.

I do agree with the weapons that Denver has added, the offense should be better, perhaps much better,  but Lock is a major question mark. I'd love to have seen Denver do something at QB, because they have nothing if Lock doesn't pan out. They should be in on Cam Newton,  and probably should have been on Winston too. Maybe Alex Smith if he is healthy? Maybe I am pessimistic, but Lock didn't really show me anything last year. 

I'd be very surprised if Gordon was better than Jacobs or Sanders over the next 2 seasons. I think both will see more work than Gordon, and Sanders is in a better offense. Where as I see Gordon at 55%, I see Sanders at 75% and Jacobs at 80%. Those guys simply don't have to deal with the competition that Gordon has for carries. Its possible Gordon outdoes Jacobs in the receiving game, especially if Lynn Bowden takes to RB quickly, but he won't touch Sanders, who could catch 75+ passes. 

No dispute to the notion that Lock is a major question mark.  I definitely agree.  

If we're comparing Ekeler and MG as receivers, the biggest difference to me is that Ekeler was used downfield as a legit receiver a lot.  Definitely agree he will miss Rivers and his production will suffer.  I'm not so sure about MG though.  He's much more of a dump off/swing pass receiver, and while Rivers is very good at them it's not the most difficult pass to complete, particularly when you have the weapons Denver has opening things up underneath.

Comparing him to Jacobs will come down to passing game usage.  Jacobs will probably get more carries, but he was not very involved in the passing game last year, they still have Jalen Richard and they just drafted Bowden.  I like Jacobs as a runner but I can't see projecting much more than the two targets per game he averaged last year.  

Sanders is closer in my view and the only reason I think MG will outscore him is because of the Eagle's team philosophy.  Now, maybe they finally adjust their system due to the talent level of Sanders, but it's been about a decade since they truly featured a runner and I'm just not betting on it to happen this year.  Boston Scott should be a threat to be involved in the passing game, but I agree he faces less competition than Gordon.  It's just up to Pederson whether he allows it to happen or not.  With the right volume, Sanders could be CMC light.

Anyway, good stuff.  

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35 minutes ago, Vandelay said:

No dispute to the notion that Lock is a major question mark.  I definitely agree.  

If we're comparing Ekeler and MG as receivers, the biggest difference to me is that Ekeler was used downfield as a legit receiver a lot.  Definitely agree he will miss Rivers and his production will suffer.  I'm not so sure about MG though.  He's much more of a dump off/swing pass receiver, and while Rivers is very good at them it's not the most difficult pass to complete, particularly when you have the weapons Denver has opening things up underneath.

Comparing him to Jacobs will come down to passing game usage.  Jacobs will probably get more carries, but he was not very involved in the passing game last year, they still have Jalen Richard and they just drafted Bowden.  I like Jacobs as a runner but I can't see projecting much more than the two targets per game he averaged last year.  

Sanders is closer in my view and the only reason I think MG will outscore him is because of the Eagle's team philosophy.  Now, maybe they finally adjust their system due to the talent level of Sanders, but it's been about a decade since they truly featured a runner and I'm just not betting on it to happen this year.  Boston Scott should be a threat to be involved in the passing game, but I agree he faces less competition than Gordon.  It's just up to Pederson whether he allows it to happen or not.  With the right volume, Sanders could be CMC light.

Anyway, good stuff.  

I echo your thoughts on Jacobs.  Jacobs could hit 300 carries, but I doubt he has more than 25-30 passes.  I also don't think the Raiders offense lends itself to a lot of TD's--whereas I can see the Broncos scoring quite a bit more in 2020.  

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Will Drew Lock be the second-best 2020 fantasy quarterback in the AFC West?

Excerpt:

 

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There is a huge ADP disparity between Melvin Gordon (33.8) and Phillip Lindsay (115.3). Do you believe this is Gordon’s backfield to lose, or will we be seeing a 1A/1B situation in Denver, making them both valuable/usable in fantasy?

Dalton: I’m in on Gordon, as his contract suggests Denver is going to treat him as a workhorse. Lindsay is a fine runner but has an extremely low BMI and just finished 49th out of 50 backs in receiving DVOA, so Gordon should at minimum see all of the passing down and goal-line work. Gordon is coming off his worst season but dealt with a (poorly devised) holdout, led the NFL in broken tackles the previous two years, and is finally running behind an inside-zone scheme similar to the Wisconsin one in which he thrived during college. I’m not sold on Drew Lock, but having Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant as teammates should also help Gordon, whom I’ve been willing to draft aggressively this summer.

Liz: Lindsay has been a top-20 FF option in back-to-back seasons, showing off his 4.4 speed and explosiveness via double-digit breakaway runs over two consecutive efforts. Does that mean that the Broncos want to get all up in their feelings about a diminutively-sized underdog and make him their RB1? Apparently not. That’s why they added Gordon — a player who has averaged 3 red zone rushing attempts and over 4.5 targets per contest over three straight campaigns — and guaranteed the Chargers’ former bell cow $13.5 over two years. 

Given Gordon’s three-down skill set, in tandem with the team’s reluctance to commit fully to Lindsay, their respective ADPs appear appropriate. Gordon is a top-20 option (ADP = RB17) while Lindsay offers FLEX appeal (ADP = RB39). 

Andy: Lindsay has delivered back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons for Denver, running efficiently (4.9 YPC) and playing on a low-dollar deal. He’s given the team everything it could possibly want. So, naturally, the Broncos threw a buncha million bucks at a brand-name running back. Sure.

Gordon is obviously an excellent back and a capable receiver, plus he was paid like a featured runner. We have to assume he’s going to handle 65-70 percent of the backfield touches, with Lindsay in a rotational role. The ADPs of each player seem reasonable, given their likely roles. Lindsay is a very good back, but he’s hardly an ideal opening week fantasy starter.

 

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Posted (edited)

 

DNVR Broncos Podcast: What will it look like if Gordon and Lindsey split reps?

 

Quote

Zac Stevens @ZacStevensDNVR

Thoughts?

Melvin Gordon

722 rushing yards (3.98 ypc)

46 catches 359 receiving

8 TDs

 

Phillip Lindsay

731 rushing (4.46 ypc)

31 catches 205 yards

5 TDs

@MaseDenver & I discuss!

DNVR Broncos Podcast: What will it look like if Gordon & Lindsey split reps?

https://twitter.com/zacstevensdnvr/status/1282752523485380609?s=21

Edited by Faust

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Stud no more in fantasyland.  Hats off to those that traded him.

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2 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Stud no more in fantasyland.  Hats off to those that traded him.

Got Edmonds (have/had Drake), the 2.07 this year (B. Edwards) and a first next year.

I'll take the hats off and applause. 

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18 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Stud no more in fantasyland.  Hats off to those that traded him.

Gordon has been an interesting player to own over the years.  Although he’s produced like a stud, he’s never really been valued like on.  People always questioned his ypc and ability to stay healthy

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Posted (edited)

Lots of folks burying Gordon a bit early here. He has been a 4.0 ypc back behind one of the very worst OLs in football, but has kept his TD rate high and the real difference maker is that he is well up in the top 1/3 of RB receiving production year after year. Lindsay just isn't very good at that (although admittedly he has had poop at QB his whole career and Rivers was a huge plus for this in SD/LA). So they may be fairly equal talents as runners, Lindsay looking slightly better behind a much better OL, but having a RB in the lineup that is just as likely to hurt you by pass as by run makes a team harder to defend than a RB who will probably only hurt you running. That's why they are paying Gordon like a lead back and treating him as such. If you take into account that he will, for the first time as a pro, have the zone blocking system that made him the best RB in college football, it will be no surprise to me if this keeps Gordon in the lineup and he has twice the touches Lindsay does going forward. Lots of unprovens and so risk, but high potential reward over ADP. 

Edited by Catbird
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Broncos beat writers Ryan O’Halloran and Kyle Newman expect RB Melvin Gordon to be the team's Week 1 starter. 

In tabbing Gordon as the Week 1 starter, Newman and O'Halloran cited the money Denver paid the free agent back (a two-year deal worth $16 million). They expect RB Phillip Lindsay -- who piled up 2,485 total yards in his first two years as a pro -- to have a "chip on his shoulder" after presumably being supplanted as the Broncos' RB1. O'Halloran predicted whoever gets the starting running back job will be on the good end of a 65-35 or 70-30 backfield split this season. 

RELATED: 

Phillip Lindsay

SOURCE: The Denver Post 

Aug 13, 2020, 2:51 PM ET

 

 

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Broncos RB Melvin Gordon said he's having a hard time adjusting to the altitude in Denver during his first training camp with the team. 

Broncos beat writer Jeff Legwold said Gordon and backfield mate Phillip Lindsay have "essentially split the plays with the starting offense in camp's early going." "I'm struggling a little bit, I'm struggling a up here little bit with the altitude,'' Gordon said after Sunday's practice. "That's the biggest adjustment, working all offseason and coming here and still feeling like you're not in shape because of the altitude.''

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29674780/broncos-rb-melvin-gordon-struggling-adjust-denver-altitude

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Fangio on Gordon and Lindsay: "I anticipate both playing enough where we really don't have to designate a starter"

 

from the twitter account of ZacstevensDNVR

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On 6/4/2020 at 1:51 AM, Vandelay said:

They were the 5th lowest scoring offense last year with 282 points, so adding 10-15 TDs would put them in the 350-375 range, which would have been good for pretty much middle of the pack last year.  I definitely think that's doable with the additions of Jeudy, Hamler, and Gordon to go along with continued growth from Sutton and Fant.  Lock has to perform and that is a legit question mark, but I love the blend of weapons on offense.  Feel like it will be difficult not to succeed with that cast.

I like Lindsay a lot, let me just get that out.  Hes been overlooked at every step and he just produces whenever he gets a shot.  Glad you mentioned Gordon is the better 3rd down back because it feels like most viewed him as that to Royster as a 2 down guy.  

So while I like Lindsay and think he'll be involved for sure, the Broncos have made it pretty clear they intend to utilize Gordon heavily, both with their words and their money.  55/45 seems generous to me, but even if it winds up there...last year, Lindsay and Freeman combined for 98 targets.  Let's pencil in Gordon for 70, considering we're orojecting the offense to be better and hes just a better receiving back in general.  His career catch rate is 75% and he averages 8.4 ypr.  Apply those averages to 70 targets and you get 52 receptions for 436 yards.  Throw in 2-3 TDs and thats roughly 110 points before we get to rushing stats.

Last year, the teams in the middle of the pack in scoring averaged about 1700-1800 yards rushing, and around 15 TDs.  Let's go with your 55% of the rushing yards and since he's always had a nose for the goalie, lets give him 9 of the TDs.  Thats about 950 yards and another 150 ppr points.  Where does that leave us?

260 points on a middle of the pack offense, which would have put him in the RB7-10 mix last year.  And again, this is only for a middle of the pack offense.  Theres plenty more upside if Lock turns out to be *actually* good.

Personally, I think Denver sniffs more around a top 10-15 offense and Gordon gets more than 55% of the work, so I see 300 point upside.  Its always dangerous to use last years point thresholds to project current year finishes, which is why I wanted to put this into pure points.  And honestly I hadn't run the numbers so I was more doing this for myself than to prove a point or anything.  Was genuinely curious.  The results do align with the generalities I had in my head though, so thats nice lol.

I really don't play redraft anymore, just dynasty, so no clue where I'd take him there.  I expect a two year window for this level of production so I am a dynasty buyer.  Hes not sexy and therefore able to be acquired. Everybody flocks to the younger RBs like Jacobs and Sanders, and sure they theoretically have more value because of age, but i see MG putting up more points the next two seasons than both of em.  Two years is an eternity particularly with RBs.  Projecting further out is almost pointless.

So yeah, I consider him a steal.  Aaron Jones too, for all almost all the same reasons except he's also a better player.

Even with his rib injury at the moment which may or may not be significant and the other mouths in the backfield, I think a 60/40 split in terms of touches(rush/rec) seems pretty logical for all the reasons you point out. 

Weeks 1 and 2 might not be so smooth but i think within a few games Gordon can establish he is a receiving threat and 3rd down back, add in his rush attempts and he does seem to point to potential steal. 

Excellent post

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Melvin Gordon (ribs) isn't listed on the Broncos' Week 1 injury report.

This confirms Gordon's healthy after missing time at Broncos camp. Gordon will play Monday night, but his workload is the bigger concern in a committee with Phillip Lindsay. We expect Gordon to lead the Denver backfield in Week 1 touches.

Sep 11, 2020, 11:07 AM ET

 

 

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I may be in the minority here but MG is highly overrated, imo.  Also, I think Lindsay outperforms him and continues to prove that he's the main dog.

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6 minutes ago, Krilons Resa said:

I may be in the minority here but MG is highly overrated, imo.  Also, I think Lindsay outperforms him and continues to prove that he's the main dog.

I don’t think you are in the minority because I don’t see anyone rating him very high. 

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Melvin Gordon rushed 15 times for 78 yards and one touchdown in the Broncos' Week 1 loss to the Titans, adding three catches for eight yards on three targets.

Gordon out-touched Phillip Lindsay 18-8 because Lindsay had to leave this one early in the second half with a foot injury and never returned. Gordon's longest run went for 25 yards early in the fourth quarter, and he pounded in a one-yard touchdown with 9:08 left in the game to give Denver a 14-13 lead. He did lose a fumble earlier in the contest. If Lindsay is out for an extended time, Gordon's floor will be much safer as an RB2. However, the Week 2 date with the Steelers is definitely one to avoid after Saquon Barkley was bottled up for an ugly 15-6-0 rushing line against Pittsburgh in Week 1.

Sep 15, 2020, 2:32 AM ET

 

 

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You couldn't say he looked great last night but he was efficient and he scored. 

14th this week in my league-PPR, puts him a s solid RB2 option, if Lindsay were to miss some time you would have to bump Gordon to potential RB1 status or Top10 perhaps. 

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1 hour ago, Ministry of Pain said:

You couldn't say he looked great last night but he was efficient and he scored. 

14th this week in my league-PPR, puts him a s solid RB2 option, if Lindsay were to miss some time you would have to bump Gordon to potential RB1 status or Top10 perhaps. 

I thought he ran well and looked good, except for the fumble.   :shrug:

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1 hour ago, Ministry of Pain said:

You couldn't say he looked great last night but he was efficient and he scored. 

14th this week in my league-PPR, puts him a s solid RB2 option, if Lindsay were to miss some time you would have to bump Gordon to potential RB1 status or Top10 perhaps

Not likely, IMO. To be Top 10 Gordon's going to need 90%+ touches. Doubt that is the case.

Royce Freeman looked good in training camp (lost weight). Plenty of local news video of him running with the 1's, especially catching passes (see 6:19 of below video where Steve Atwater endorses him as a camp standout).

Last night Freeman clearly had a role in a couple 3rd down packages after Lindsay went down, and nearly vultured a TD from Gordon.

It won't be 50/50-ish as with Lindsay, but Freeman will still have enough presence to deny Gordon (temporary) bell cow status.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jh5sHUBjbw

Edited by Stoneworker

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58 minutes ago, Stoneworker said:

Not likely, IMO. To be Top 10 Gordon's going to need 90%+ touches. Doubt that is the case.

Royce Freeman looked good in training camp (lost weight). Plenty of local news video of him running with the 1's, especially catching passes (see 6:19 of below video where Steve Atwater endorses him as a camp standout).

Last night Freeman clearly had a role in a couple 3rd down packages after Lindsay went down, and nearly vultured a TD from Gordon.

It won't be 50/50-ish as with Lindsay, but Freeman will still have enough presence to deny Gordon (temporary) bell cow status.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jh5sHUBjbw

10. D.Johnson/CEH

12. A.Jones

13. D.Henry

14. M.Gordon...he is doing this like you said with less than 90% of the touches...what happens when he is the bellcow? 

Now you want to hype Freeman? Really? I've seen websites with paid professionals that say don't pay a wink of attention to Freeman. I'm just pointing out you might not be the majority thinking is all, nothing wrong with thinking on your own but I don't see compelling stats to back much of it. 

They signed Gordon to start regardless of what people might have been writing over the summer when nothing was happening, no camps etc...I can see Gordon being Top 10-12 at the end of the season when it's all said and done. He has the resume to prove it. 

Edited by Ministry of Pain

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1 minute ago, Ministry of Pain said:

10. D.Johnson/CEH

12. A.Jones

13. D.Henry

14. M.Gordon...he is doing this like you said with less than 90% of the touches...what happens when he is the bellcow? 

Now you want to hype Freeman? Really? I've seen websites with paid professionals that say don't pay a wink of attention to Freeman. I'm just pointing out you might not be the majority thinking is all, nothing wrong with thinking on your own but I don't see compelling stats to back much of it. 

They signed Gordon to start regardless of what people might have been writing over the summer when nothing was happening, no camps etc...I can see Gordon bing Top 10-12 at the end of the season when it's all said and done. 

Whatever. It's not me "hyping", so please ease up with the hyperbole.

Steve Atwater knows a thing or two about Broncos football. It's doubtful those other "paid professionals" had a front row seat to every day of training camp like he did.

Just providing some info that might not otherwise be available on "websites."

BTW, your #14 ranking comes with a huge asterisk. Gordon wouldn't have been anywhere close to RB14 had Freeman either a) scored on the 12-yard RZ pass or b) the subsequent GL carry.

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4 minutes ago, Stoneworker said:

Whatever. It's not me "hyping", so please ease up with the hyperbole.

 

BTW, your #14 ranking comes with a huge asterisk. Gordon wouldn't have been anywhere close to RB14 had Freeman either a) scored on the 12-yard RZ pass or b) the subsequent GL carry.

🤷‍♂️

Reads to me like you have an axe to grind on Gordon, I apologize and I'm not using hyperbole, those are your words. Why does he have an asterisk but say Kamara doesn't because you take away his scores and Alvin Kamara barely scratched out any rushing yds 12 carries 16 yds, should have a HUGE asterisk next to his production this week. 

I understand and appreciate all good local inside info, you reference Atwater, cool. But again as I read it, I think you should be more open to what Gordon produced and he was clutch for Denver down the stretch last night. From what I watched. 

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2 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

🤷‍♂️

Reads to me like you have an axe to grind on Gordon, I apologize and I'm not using hyperbole, those are your words. Why does he have an asterisk but say Kamara doesn't because you take away his scores and Alvin Kamara barely scratched out any rushing yds 12 carries 16 yds, should have a HUGE asterisk next to his production this week. 

I understand and appreciate all good local inside info, you reference Atwater, cool. But again as I read it, I think you should be more open to what Gordon produced and he was clutch for Denver down the stretch last night. From what I watched. 

All good. I'm very much a Gordon fan, so maybe just splitting hairs.

I was strictly reacting to the consensus narrative that Gordon automatically steps into a bell cow role and Top 10-12+ status. 70-80% of touches is my personal prediction (I believe 22-6 Gordon vs. Freeman last night, which is 79%).

The other thing baked into my view is a fairly tough schedule.....PIT, TB (Kamara 12/17 as you say) and NE in next four weeks. Beyond that there is LAC x2 (just shut down Mixon) and BUF. If Lock can't step up it's going to be rough sledding for the whole DEN offense.

If I'm wrong, Gordon explodes and Freeman rides the pine...feel free to bump my cautious outlook. 😉

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4 minutes ago, Stoneworker said:

All good. I'm very much a Gordon fan, so maybe just splitting hairs.

I was strictly reacting to the consensus narrative that Gordon automatically steps into a bell cow role and Top 10-12+ status. 70-80% of touches is my personal prediction (I believe 22-6 Gordon vs. Freeman last night, which is 79%).

The other thing baked into my view is a fairly tough schedule.....PIT, TB (Kamara 12/17 as you say) and NE in next four weeks. Beyond that there is LAC x2 (just shut down Mixon) and BUF. If Lock can't step up it's going to be rough sledding for the whole DEN offense.

If I'm wrong, Gordon explodes and Freeman rides the pine...feel free to bump my cautious outlook. 😉

Every RB has someone to share carries with (except for Derrick Henry, it seems).    I don't believe Freeman is more than JAG.  Atwater raved about him but he raved about everyone.  I heard a lot more chatter about the fire Lindsay had entering camp than anything else.

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Just now, moleculo said:

Every RB has someone to share carries with (except for Derrick Henry, it seems).    I don't believe Freeman is more than JAG.  Atwater raved about him but he raved about everyone.  I heard a lot more chatter about the fire Lindsay had entering camp than anything else.

So you think Gordon is a Top 10 RB going forward with Lindsay out?

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1 minute ago, Stoneworker said:

So you think Gordon is a Top 10 RB going forward with Lindsay out?

maybe in PPR.  After last night, the offense simply doesn't have enough juice to sustain.  the OL isn't good enough to grind out a 3 yards & a cloud of dust type game, and the passing game needs time to develop.

If/when Sutton comes back, and if/when Hamler can take the top off of the defense, and if/when Jeudy stops with the drops, the offense will be able to sustain drives and MG will have opportunities.  I'd also add an if/when the defense can get off the field.  Yesterday in the 3rd quarter, Broncos had the ball all of 2:23.  Hell, the Broncos had 6 possessions in the 2nd half yesterday - 4 of those possessions had 3 plays (counting the final 0:17).  That's not a recipe for success for any offensive player. 

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Once he got into a rhythm he looked pretty solid last night IMO.

Like all things week 1 it doesn't really move the needle for me one way or the other, but he appears to be at the very least a solid flex play.

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I was a seller on Gordon, but he looked better than I thought he would last night. He did bring his fumbles from last year along with him. IIRC he fumbled a bit around the goal line last year a few times. I'd be a redraft buyer, possibly/maybe/not really dynasty. I think he'd command a first-rounder and I'm not sure I'd pay that for him for these two years, especially with Lindsay and Freeman looming.

But if Fangio's approach is as old school as his timeout usage, we're going to see a lot of Gordon, who has always been a fantasy volume king.

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Mel G never gets any love, but has been a consistent fantasy producer for years - even when splitting time with Marriner Eccles. He'll probably end up being a ho-hum low-end RB1 or high-end RB2 once again this season in PPR, especially if Pip Lindsey tries to come back too soon from The Dreaded - which most of them do.

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4 hours ago, Alex P Keaton said:

I thought he ran well and looked good, except for the fumble.   :shrug:

He had a 25 yard run. I know it counts, not saying to take it away, just observing that means he had 14 other carries for 53 yards plus 3 catches for 8 yards. I didn't see the game, but at face value that doesn't appear to equate to "running well." Did he really look good?

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I like the usage I saw. He got some catches too which was nice. He was definitely the RB1 of a 2 back team.  15 carries and 3 targets is nice production for a guy going in the 4th round.

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37 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

He had a 25 yard run. I know it counts, not saying to take it away, just observing that means he had 14 other carries for 53 yards plus 3 catches for 8 yards. I didn't see the game, but at face value that doesn't appear to equate to "running well." Did he really look good?

He didn’t have a lot of room to run on many plays, but he had some good moves in limited open space, had good burst, etc.  Really, the blocking was low-quality much of the time.

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Seems kinda unusable this week vs Pitt after what they did to Saquon

Edited by Tool

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Melvin Gordon is the type of player that will run for 140 and 2 tds and all people will talk about are the yards he left on the field 

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1 hour ago, Skeletore Eh said:

Melvin Gordon is the type of player that will run for 140 and 2 tds and all people will talk about are the yards he left on the field 

But, take away those 2 TDs and those two big 30 and 40 yard runs and he only had 70 yards rushing.

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12 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

He had a 25 yard run. I know it counts, not saying to take it away, just observing that means he had 14 other carries for 53 yards plus 3 catches for 8 yards. I didn't see the game, but at face value that doesn't appear to equate to "running well." Did he really look good?

14 for 53 against the Titans after removing his outlier is solid.  Maybe more than solid.

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@Pitt today, short week of rest, cross country 1:00 game, 7.5 pt underdogs, maybe they should be double digit dogs today.

Where is Gordon going to be in all this mess today? I could see something like 8/23 at the half, they fall behind, maybe he catches a few balls but I don't see him running for more than 30-40 yds today, is that overly pessimistic? The only way I see him being decent for owners is if he can haul in 6-7 balls. 

I never realized how few times Gordon rushed for 1,000+ yds in a season. 

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16 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

@Pitt today, short week of rest, cross country 1:00 game, 7.5 pt underdogs, maybe they should be double digit dogs today.

Where is Gordon going to be in all this mess today? I could see something like 8/23 at the half, they fall behind, maybe he catches a few balls but I don't see him running for more than 30-40 yds today, is that overly pessimistic? The only way I see him being decent for owners is if he can haul in 6-7 balls. 

I never realized how few times Gordon rushed for 1,000+ yds in a season. 

Gordon looked spry last week, he looked like he lost some weight. But PITT is super tough match-up with a 2nd year QB. Gordon  could get some garbage time points if it's a route. Like you say he may get a few receptions.

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36 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

Gordon looked spry last week, he looked like he lost some weight. But PITT is super tough match-up with a 2nd year QB. Gordon  could get some garbage time points if it's a route. Like you say he may get a few receptions.

Put it another way, i think Malcolm Brown who is ranked well behind Gordon this week on most sites, I think he can surpass him today. 

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Melvin Gordon had eight carries for 26 yards in Week 3 against the Bucs.

He was more involved in the passing game, but caught 4-of-6 targets for just 12 yards. The entire Broncos offense took a hit with Jeff Driskel starting, and Gordon never got a chance to get going with Denver chasing points. His eight carries were the fewest of the season after Gordon had 15 carries in the opener and rushed 19 times last week. With Drew Lock out multiple games, Gordon could face another negative gamescript if the Broncos turn to Brett Rypien in Week 4.

Sep 27, 2020, 7:32 PM ET

 

 

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