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Dynasty and Redraft: Sammie Coates Pittsburgh Steelers (1 Viewer)

Biabreakable

Biabreakable

Footballguy
Sammie Coates Scouting Report

Strengths:

  • Athletic skill set
  • Has deep speed
  • Big-play receiving threat
  • Can stretch a defense vertically
  • Has quality size
  • Able to make contested catches
  • Explosive play-maker in college
  • Dangerous run-after-the-catch receiver
  • Quick release off of the line
  • Red-zone weapon
  • Body control
  • Leaping ability
  • Gets separation from cornerbacks
  • Can use size to beat defensive backs from ball
  • Experienced and successful against top college programs
  • Versatile; could be an X, Y, or Z receiver with development
Weaknesses:

  • Must improve route-running
  • Should get better with his hands
  • Raw, not a polished receiver
  • Summary: Coates has the potential to be one of the better value picks in the 2015 NFL Draft. From a skill-set perspective, Coates is a special player with the speed to be a vertical receiver while having quality size. However, Coates is a raw receiver who needs to develop his overall game, especially his route-running and being able to execute all of the routes.

    Coates didn't produce as much as he was capable while at Auburn because the team favored the ground game. He caught 42 passes in 2013 for 902 yards with seven touchdowns. Coates had 34 receptions for 741 yards and four touchdowns in 2014 and faced some double coverage. The senior lit up Alabama (5-206) though. If Coates had played in a different offense, he easily would have produced a lot more. At the Senior Bowl, Coates showed some potential to run the short to intermediate routes while using his size to his advantage.

    Coates has the potential to be a big-play receiver in the NFL. He has enough speed to stretch a defense over the top. Coates also can get separation from cornerbacks and burn safeties in the deep part of the field. Additionally, he uses his size and leaping ability to make catches over defensive backs and is dangerous while running after the catch. Coates needs to improve his route-running and hands, but he has a skill set that can't be coached.

    If Coates works hard, he has the upside to develop into a No. 1 receiver. The most likely scenario is he turns into a quality starter, but not an elite receiver. Coates should go in the first couple of rounds of the 2015 NFL Draft.
Scouting The Draft: Sammie Coates, WR, Auburn

Draft Breakdown

I like how Sammie Coates seems able to consistently get open on deep routes. He has tremendous speed. He still seems unrefined in his route running although there are times when he shows some good fakes that help him get open on the deep routes (hitch and go) he is dangerous with the ball on those hitch routes as well at times being able to get long gains off of shorter high percentage throws. The main concern with him is his hands. There are several plays where he is wide open and the QB delivers a catchable ball, but he just fails to catch the ball. That is worrisome. But if he can gain more consistency there Coates has perhaps the highest potential at WR from this draft. He has averaged over 21 yards per reception his last 2 seasons in Auburn.

 
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Sammie Coates

NFL Media analyst Mike Mayock grades Auburn WR Sammie Coates as a second-rounder.
The analyst said Coates is one of the draft's top deep-threat receivers. Coates (6-foot-2, 213-pounds) has reportedly run a 4.25 forty. Coates has "[Terrell Owens'] body, [Odell Beckham Jr.'s] burst and [Darrius Heyward-Bey's] hands," NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah wrote recently. Colleague Lance Zierlein wrote that Coates has "some of the worst hands" he's seen on tape. The Auburn prospect has the physical tools that NFL teams will fall in love with, which could lead to him being over-drafted in April. Feb 17 - 2:06 AM
Source: NFL.com
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Rotoworld:

Auburn WR Sammie Coates will "need a great 40 time to be a first-round consideration," ESPN's Todd McShay notes.

"He has very good size, length and straight-line speed, and flashes the ability to make big plays in the vertical passing game, hauling in some unbelievably acrobatic catches," McShay wrote. "But his ball skills overall are marginal -- the worst of any I've studied so far in this year's class -- and he's wildly inconsistent as a route-runner." The 6-foot-2, 213-pound wideout has reportedly run a 4.25 forty before. NFL.com's Lance Zierlein has noted that Coates has "some of the worst hands" he's seen on tape.

Source: ESPN Insider
Feb 18 - 3:18 PM
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Faust said:
Rotoworld:

Auburn WR Sammie Coates will "need a great 40 time to be a first-round consideration," ESPN's Todd McShay notes.

"He has very good size, length and straight-line speed, and flashes the ability to make big plays in the vertical passing game, hauling in some unbelievably acrobatic catches," McShay wrote. "But his ball skills overall are marginal -- the worst of any I've studied so far in this year's class -- and he's wildly inconsistent as a route-runner." The 6-foot-2, 213-pound wideout has reportedly run a 4.25 forty before. NFL.com's Lance Zierlein has noted that Coates has "some of the worst hands" he's seen on tape.

Source: ESPN Insider

Feb 18 - 3:18 PM
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Coates won't have any problems running well he's a burner and freak. Unfortunately his ball skills problem is a ball tracking problem, not a hands problem. Boom or bust.
 
Rotoworld:

NFL Media draft analyst Lance Zierlein said Auburn WR Sammie Coates has "early-round traits and late-round receiving skills right now."

"He is big (6-foot-2, 213 pounds), fast (he has been clocked at under 4.4 in the 40) and athletic (his vertical jump once was measured at 44 inches), and should test off the charts at the combine," wrote College Football 24/7 writer Mike Huguenin. "So what's the problem? His hands are inconsistent, and a receiver with inconsistent hands is problematic no matter how fast or athletic. Still, expect scouts to be awed by the numbers Coates puts up in the event portion of the combine. Chances are, those numbers will be impressive enough that more than a few teams will be willing to overlook his inconsistencies." The 6-foot-2, 213-pound wideout has "[Terrell Owens'] body, [Odell Beckham Jr.'s] burst and [Darrius Heyward-Bey's] hands," NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah wrote recently. Previously, Zierlein wrote that Coates has "some of the worst hands" he's seen on tape.

Feb 11 - 9:25 PM
Source: NFL.com
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Rotoworld:

Per NFL.com's Gil Brandt, Auburn WR Sammie Coates secured 10 of his 11 catchable targets of 20-plus yards downfield last season.
Draftniks have skewered Coates for dropping passes, but he was efficient on vertical targets, and has an ideal vertical-receiver profile at 6-foot-2, 213 with long arms (33 3/8") and blazing speed. Incoming rookie wide receivers will run their forty-yard dashes on Saturday. We expect Coates to run in the 4.3s.

Source: Gil Brandt on Twitter
Feb 19 - 4:59 PM
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IMO he's no better than a late 2nd rounder in dynasty rookie drafts and has a high bust probability.

 
Combine profile: WR Sammie Coates

by Andrew Krammer
1500ESPN.com

INDIANAPOLIS -- The Vikings have talked up this year's receiver draft class and one prospect expects to sit down with the team this week.

Auburn receiver Sammie Coates, currently projected as a first- or second-round pick, says he has about 10 interviews scheduled at the NFL scouting combine. The Vikings will meet with more prospects than will remain on their draft board come April, but they have enough interest to talk with him this week after he impressed in January's Senior Bowl.

"Yeah, I expect to [talk with the Vikings]," Coates said following his Thursday podium session.

The majority of early draft projections from experts peg a receiver to go to the Vikings with the No. 11 pick; that currently would seem like a reach for Coates, who finished his junior season with 741 receiving yards, four touchdowns and a handful of drops for the Tigers.

He reportedly played through a knee injury suffered in the 2014 season opener and tweaked his other knee in a college-defining performance against Alabama, when he caught five balls for 206 yards and two touchdowns -- setting the school's Iron Bowl record.

Coates skipped his final year of eligibility to capitalize on that Nov. 29 performance and a final collegiate season that saw him catch 10 of 11 passes thrown 20 yards or deeper, per NFL Media's Gil Brandt. That's an area where the Vikings could use a boost after second-year receiver Cordarrelle Patterson continued to struggle as a downfield threat and the team had to shift duties to a practice squad addition in Charles Johnson, who filled in admirably despite playing with a surgically-reconstructed knee.

Minnesota finished t-23rd in the NFL in passes longer than 20 yards and t-25th on completions over 40 yards.

"They'll get a great player, who loves to make plays in big situations," Coates said.

During his 15 minutes at the podium, Coates took questions about his injury history, drop problem and his former collegiate quarterback Nick Marshall, who said he expects to be a cornerback at the next level but will also throw inside Lucas Oil Stadium this week. Coates' confidence was as visually obvious as his pearly whites, but he was still left answering for, perceived or not, lapses in his game. He reportedly accounted for 40 percent of Marshall's incomplete passes at an early point during last season.

"Lack of focus," Coates said succinctly about his drops, before he was asked again later.

"I'm going to have to show [teams], it's not about what I can say," he said. "They have film, they see I've dropped passes, but which receiver doesn't?"

After serving in a run-first offense for the Tigers, Coates is also out to show teams he can be more than a 'go' route option.

"Being a receiver, you're always working on running routes," Coates said. "I've been doing that since I've been [at Auburn], it's just the fact I haven't showcased it on film because that wasn't my role in the offense.

"I'm ready to go out there and show them I can run routes and get out of breaks," he added. "I showed I can do that in the Senior Bowl."

The Vikings are looking at him, along with Louisville receiver DeVante Parker, this week as they sort through their draft options at receiver. General manager Rick Spielman called this year's class of catchers "strong again this year." Spielman met with his personnel and coaching staffs in the week leading up to the combine to narrow down who they'd like to talk with and Coates says he's on the list.

He winked when telling reporters that his fastest 40-yard dash is in the 4.3-second range and said he's "out to set a record," which for receivers was set at 4.27 by Marquise Goodwin in 2013. He was one of the first prospects to receive an endorsement deal, which he got from Under Armour, and gave some of that back to his high school, where he hopes to be one of the only big stories out of Leroy, Ala., which had a population of 911 back in 2010.

"I went to a small high school," he said. "Not many go through there; not many stories. For me, to go back and give back to my high school, that means a lot to me."

 
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He won't be on any of my teams. He has major issues at the catch point and there's no way of telling if that will be corrected until he gets back on the field again. Given where I expect him to be drafted in the real thing he will be taken too early in rookie drafts too.

 
MAC_32 said:
He won't be on any of my teams. He has major issues at the catch point and there's no way of telling if that will be corrected until he gets back on the field again. Given where I expect him to be drafted in the real thing he will be taken too early in rookie drafts too.
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I've soured a great deal on Coates over the past few months. I'm pretty convinced he has pretty drastic ball tracking issues. There are times where he is just so off on the flight of the ball it's scary. I'm not sure if that can be taught. I really want to see him in the route drills tomorrow. He's going to blow people away in the jumps and 40 but that's not where the attention should be at all.

 
what is the consensus on WR with bad hands?? they can learn to catch better? For instance is coates hands worse than Kelvin Benjamin? I watched alot of KB this year and Cam throws a very "uncatchable" ball, yet Olsen seems to do just fine.

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
what is the consensus on WR with bad hands?? they can learn to catch better? For instance is coates hands worse than Kelvin Benjamin? I watched alot of KB this year and Cam throws a very "uncatchable" ball, yet Olsen seems to do just fine.
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KB may be the first polarizing prospect to prove both his fans and his naysayers correct.Sammie's problems are not only his hands, but also his eyes. I think you can fix hands problems, but eyes? Good luck.

 
MAC_32 said:
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
what is the consensus on WR with bad hands?? they can learn to catch better? For instance is coates hands worse than Kelvin Benjamin? I watched alot of KB this year and Cam throws a very "uncatchable" ball, yet Olsen seems to do just fine.
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KB may be the first polarizing prospect to prove both his fans and his naysayers correct.Sammie's problems are not only his hands, but also his eyes. I think you can fix hands problems, but eyes? Good luck.
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Lasik? glasses? or are you saying that he cant track the ball?

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
MAC_32 said:
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
what is the consensus on WR with bad hands?? they can learn to catch better? For instance is coates hands worse than Kelvin Benjamin? I watched alot of KB this year and Cam throws a very "uncatchable" ball, yet Olsen seems to do just fine.
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KB may be the first polarizing prospect to prove both his fans and his naysayers correct.Sammie's problems are not only his hands, but also his eyes. I think you can fix hands problems, but eyes? Good luck.
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Lasik? glasses? or are you saying that he cant track the ball?
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latter
 
Rotoworld:

Sammie Coates - WR - Tigers

Auburn WR Sammie Coates recorded an "unofficial" 4.43 forty with a 10 yard split of 1.56.

Coates stands at 6'1 3/8" and 212 lbs, with 33 3/8" arms and 9 3/8" hands. A number was posted that Coates caught 10 of 11 "catchable" passes 20-plus yards downfield. PFF adds he caught 10 of 31 targets in that area. Coates has technical issues in terms of getting into a catchable spot with body control and timing. Still, he is a specimen and has underrated yards after catch ability.

Feb 21 - 11:06 AM
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Soulfly3 said:
I feel like I should like this guy, but I just dont.
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I respect your point of view. How do you think this class of guys stacks up against Mike Evans?

 
cmv5 said:
Soulfly3 said:
I feel like I should like this guy, but I just dont.
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I respect your point of view. How do you think this class of guys stacks up against Mike Evans?
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Evans is, imo, the best of last year's crop after this season. Yes, even ahead of ODB (who I loved a ton last year predraft as well)

Evans did what he did w 2 deadweight QBs and a nonexistent offense. Not only that, QBs left a good 3-400yds and 5 TDs on the field, easily w poor throws.

If Im drafting last 2 rookie classes together, right now, I go Evans, ODB 1/2

While I like white, Cooper and dgb a ton (parker has a case too) I need to see where they end up

Watkins is a beast but BUF is not.

 
For his career, Torrey Smith has a 11.98% drop rate. Passes less than 20 yards: 9.04%, 20+ yards: 22.22%.

Coates will be fine. He plays with much greater strength than Torrey anyway.

 
Rotoworld:

One NFL scout told Bob McGinn he is "not on board" with selecting Auburn WR Sammie Coates, and "wouldn't touch him."
"Once he runs fast they're all going to drool over him," the scout said of his peers in the NFL and then projected Coates to the late second-round. The hang up? Coates is "a large, explosive, stiff, inconsistent guy with big hands." The Auburn product was used as an example by Josh Norris prior to the Combine as someone who should not have their performance counted again as it is already a major part of their evaluation. We think Coates is better after the catch than credited for.

Source: Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Feb 24 - 12:41 PM
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Rotoworld:

ESPN's Mel Kiper believes Auburn WR Sammie Coates is a "running back with the ball in his hands."
We entirely agree and believe Coates hasn't been given due credit for his running after the catch skills. "There was actually some disappointment in Coates' 4.43 40 time, which tells you about how good an athlete he is," Kiper wrote. "He's gotten better down the field." The 6-foot-2, 213-pound wideout possesses poor hands and needs to work on his technique, but he boasts several No. 1 WR characteristics.

Source: ESPN Insider
Mar 1 - 12:29 PM
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Rotoworld:

TFY Draft Insider Tony Pauline reports that "scouts were very impressed" with Auburn WR Sammie Coates pro day workout.

"Especially the consistency of his hands, which has been an issue since the season," Pauline wrote. The analyst additionally passed along that both Coates and RB Cameron Artis-Payne met privately with the Browns on Wednesday. The dispatch about Coates' hands is great news for the prospect. The 6-foot-2, 213-pound wideout has 4.4 speed, but NFL.com's Lance Zierlein previously wrote that Coates has "some of the worst hands" he's seen on tape.

Source: Walter Football
Mar 4 - 10:27 PM
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I dont care how he looked on his pro day, those hands are gonna be on every team's mind.

I can't get behind this guy... Just looks to clunky, stiff, and Greg Littlesque.

Ball in his hands, he's good... but... "ball in his hands"

 
2015 NFL Draft: Nine questions teams are asking heading into combine

4: How do drops fit into the WR equation? College teams throw way more than they used to, providing plenty of video of receivers catching and dropping passes. More and more, teams use drop ratios when analyzing wide receivers. Alabama's Amari Cooper led the nation with 124 receptions and 16 touchdowns and is the No. 1 WR. After Cooper, East Carolina's Justin Hardy was No. 2 in receptions (121), dropping one of every 35 passes. West Virginia's Kevin White was No. 3 in receptions (109), and dropped one of every 33. Kansas State's Tyler Lockett was No. 4 (106), dropping one of every 26, while Washington State's Vince Mayle also had 106 receptions but his drop rate was one of every 13 balls. The best drop rate I've seen is Florida State's Rashad Greene, who dropped only one of every 74. One of the worst? Auburn's Sammie Coates at one of every nine. I know teams like Coates, as do I, but heading into this draft I'm also hearing more about drop rates than ever
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Having the worst drop rate of the draft class is a serious concern to me.

Looking at Bill Connelleys target data for Coates

2013 80 targets 42 receptions 52.5% catch rate
2014 70 targets 30 receptions 42.9% catch rate (missing a game of target data)

Combined 48% catch rate. This is terrible. I cannot find another college WR this bad. This is consistent with Pat Kirwans drop rate of one out of nine posted above.

WR D'haquille Williams of Auburn had a 66.2% catch rate in 2014 in the same system. So I don't think the blame can be attributed to the QB or scheme.

I recall Troy Williamson being a top 10 pick for the Vikings after they traded away Randy Moss. Williamson had some excellent speed and athletic ability, but he couldn't catch a cold. The issue with Williamson was poor hand eye coordination due to depth perception. This is an issue that WR Jake Reed had as well, but the Vikings were able to correct this issue over time with Reed by having him do some special training to improve his visual tracking ability. I presume they tried to do the same thing with Williamson, but that was not as successful with him as it was with Reed.

I have concerns that Coates may have a similar issue. All the athleticism in the world is not going to make enough of a difference if he cannot consistently catch the ball.

I hope Coates is able to improve in this area. But I have moved him down to the end of my tier 1b list for now awaiting further information from the NFL draft. I could see Coates dropping to the second tier of prospects on my list (which means WR2 upside in FF) if he isn't in the top 6 WR drafted, or he goes to a team like the Raiders who have a history of over valuing WR similar to him like DHB, or if he is paired with a QB who has a weakness throwing deep, such as Tannehill or Andy Dalton.

 
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Williamson had a diagnosed vision issue IIRC. Not sure Coates had that. I think it's more a processing issues when tracking the ball. It's worse on over the shoulder catches. Not nearly as bad when he's facing the ball.

I'd be curious to know the average depth of route he ran vs. Williams at Auburn. Just from games it seems he ran more deep routes. That would drop his catch rate for sure.

 
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He was used mostly on deep routes and come back routes from what I saw of him. In a run oriented offense. So that certainly has an impact on the catch percentage. Just watching the draft break down clips, he missed some catchable passes but many of the targets he missed were not really catchable in my opinion. It didn't look as bad as the numbers indicate.

Still, 42.9% catch rate is really bad.and far worse than all of the other higher end WR prospects I have been looking at.

 
Biabreakable said:
2015 NFL Draft: Nine questions teams are asking heading into combine

4: How do drops fit into the WR equation? College teams throw way more than they used to, providing plenty of video of receivers catching and dropping passes. More and more, teams use drop ratios when analyzing wide receivers. Alabama's Amari Cooper led the nation with 124 receptions and 16 touchdowns and is the No. 1 WR. After Cooper, East Carolina's Justin Hardy was No. 2 in receptions (121), dropping one of every 35 passes. West Virginia's Kevin White was No. 3 in receptions (109), and dropped one of every 33. Kansas State's Tyler Lockett was No. 4 (106), dropping one of every 26, while Washington State's Vince Mayle also had 106 receptions but his drop rate was one of every 13 balls. The best drop rate I've seen is Florida State's Rashad Greene, who dropped only one of every 74. One of the worst? Auburn's Sammie Coates at one of every nine. I know teams like Coates, as do I, but heading into this draft I'm also hearing more about drop rates than ever
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Having the worst drop rate of the draft class is a serious concern to me.

Looking at Bill Connelleys target data for Coates

2013 80 targets 42 receptions 52.5% catch rate
2014 70 targets 30 receptions 62.9% catch rate (missing a game of target data)

Combined 48% catch rate. This is terrible. I cannot find another college WR this bad. This is consistent with Pat Kirwans drop rate of one out of nine posted above.

WR D'haquille Williams of Auburn had a 66.2% catch rate in 2014 in the same system. So I don't think the blame can be attributed to the QB or scheme.

I recall Troy Williamson being a top 10 pick for the Vikings after they traded away Randy Moss. Williamson had some excellent speed and athletic ability, but he couldn't catch a cold. The issue with Williamson was poor hand eye coordination due to depth perception. This is an issue that WR Jake Reed had as well, but the Vikings were able to correct this issue over time with Reed by having him do some special training to improve his visual tracking ability. I presume they tried to do the same thing with Williamson, but that was not as successful with him as it was with Reed.

I have concerns that Coates may have a similar issue. All the athleticism in the world is not going to make enough of a difference if he cannot consistently catch the ball.

I hope Coates is able to improve in this area. But I have moved him down to the end of my tier 1b list for now awaiting further information from the NFL draft. I could see Coates dropping to the second tier of prospects on my list (which means WR2 upside in FF) if he isn't in the top 6 WR drafted, or he goes to a team like the Raiders who have a history of over valuing WR similar to him like DHB, or if he is paired with a QB who has a weakness throwing deep, such as Tannehill or Andy Dalton.
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1/9= 11.1%. That's actually not that bad. Kirwan doesn't point out of it's on "catchable" passes or not, though.

 
Xue said:
Biabreakable said:
2015 NFL Draft: Nine questions teams are asking heading into combine

4: How do drops fit into the WR equation? College teams throw way more than they used to, providing plenty of video of receivers catching and dropping passes. More and more, teams use drop ratios when analyzing wide receivers. Alabama's Amari Cooper led the nation with 124 receptions and 16 touchdowns and is the No. 1 WR. After Cooper, East Carolina's Justin Hardy was No. 2 in receptions (121), dropping one of every 35 passes. West Virginia's Kevin White was No. 3 in receptions (109), and dropped one of every 33. Kansas State's Tyler Lockett was No. 4 (106), dropping one of every 26, while Washington State's Vince Mayle also had 106 receptions but his drop rate was one of every 13 balls. The best drop rate I've seen is Florida State's Rashad Greene, who dropped only one of every 74. One of the worst? Auburn's Sammie Coates at one of every nine. I know teams like Coates, as do I, but heading into this draft I'm also hearing more about drop rates than ever
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Having the worst drop rate of the draft class is a serious concern to me.

Looking at Bill Connelleys target data for Coates

2013 80 targets 42 receptions 52.5% catch rate
2014 70 targets 30 receptions 62.9% catch rate (missing a game of target data)

Combined 48% catch rate. This is terrible. I cannot find another college WR this bad. This is consistent with Pat Kirwans drop rate of one out of nine posted above.

WR D'haquille Williams of Auburn had a 66.2% catch rate in 2014 in the same system. So I don't think the blame can be attributed to the QB or scheme.

I recall Troy Williamson being a top 10 pick for the Vikings after they traded away Randy Moss. Williamson had some excellent speed and athletic ability, but he couldn't catch a cold. The issue with Williamson was poor hand eye coordination due to depth perception. This is an issue that WR Jake Reed had as well, but the Vikings were able to correct this issue over time with Reed by having him do some special training to improve his visual tracking ability. I presume they tried to do the same thing with Williamson, but that was not as successful with him as it was with Reed.

I have concerns that Coates may have a similar issue. All the athleticism in the world is not going to make enough of a difference if he cannot consistently catch the ball.

I hope Coates is able to improve in this area. But I have moved him down to the end of my tier 1b list for now awaiting further information from the NFL draft. I could see Coates dropping to the second tier of prospects on my list (which means WR2 upside in FF) if he isn't in the top 6 WR drafted, or he goes to a team like the Raiders who have a history of over valuing WR similar to him like DHB, or if he is paired with a QB who has a weakness throwing deep, such as Tannehill or Andy Dalton.
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1/9= 11.1%. That's actually not that bad. Kirwan doesn't point out of it's on "catchable" passes or not, though.
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I noticed an error in the 2014 catch rate I posted. This was 42.9% not 62.9% must have fat fingered there.

One out of nine was the worst drop rate cited by Kirwan. So I am not sure how being the worst at something would not be considered bad?

I know you were very down on Marquise Lee because of his drops. Was Lee's drop rate worse than Coates? I know his catch percentage wasn't.

 
Biabreakable said:
Xue said:
Biabreakable said:
2015 NFL Draft: Nine questions teams are asking heading into combine

4: How do drops fit into the WR equation? College teams throw way more than they used to, providing plenty of video of receivers catching and dropping passes. More and more, teams use drop ratios when analyzing wide receivers. Alabama's Amari Cooper led the nation with 124 receptions and 16 touchdowns and is the No. 1 WR. After Cooper, East Carolina's Justin Hardy was No. 2 in receptions (121), dropping one of every 35 passes. West Virginia's Kevin White was No. 3 in receptions (109), and dropped one of every 33. Kansas State's Tyler Lockett was No. 4 (106), dropping one of every 26, while Washington State's Vince Mayle also had 106 receptions but his drop rate was one of every 13 balls. The best drop rate I've seen is Florida State's Rashad Greene, who dropped only one of every 74. One of the worst? Auburn's Sammie Coates at one of every nine. I know teams like Coates, as do I, but heading into this draft I'm also hearing more about drop rates than ever
Click to expand...
Having the worst drop rate of the draft class is a serious concern to me.

Looking at Bill Connelleys target data for Coates

2013 80 targets 42 receptions 52.5% catch rate

2014 70 targets 30 receptions 62.9% catch rate (missing a game of target data)

Combined 48% catch rate. This is terrible. I cannot find another college WR this bad. This is consistent with Pat Kirwans drop rate of one out of nine posted above.

WR D'haquille Williams of Auburn had a 66.2% catch rate in 2014 in the same system. So I don't think the blame can be attributed to the QB or scheme.

I recall Troy Williamson being a top 10 pick for the Vikings after they traded away Randy Moss. Williamson had some excellent speed and athletic ability, but he couldn't catch a cold. The issue with Williamson was poor hand eye coordination due to depth perception. This is an issue that WR Jake Reed had as well, but the Vikings were able to correct this issue over time with Reed by having him do some special training to improve his visual tracking ability. I presume they tried to do the same thing with Williamson, but that was not as successful with him as it was with Reed.

I have concerns that Coates may have a similar issue. All the athleticism in the world is not going to make enough of a difference if he cannot consistently catch the ball.

I hope Coates is able to improve in this area. But I have moved him down to the end of my tier 1b list for now awaiting further information from the NFL draft. I could see Coates dropping to the second tier of prospects on my list (which means WR2 upside in FF) if he isn't in the top 6 WR drafted, or he goes to a team like the Raiders who have a history of over valuing WR similar to him like DHB, or if he is paired with a QB who has a weakness throwing deep, such as Tannehill or Andy Dalton.
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1/9= 11.1%. That's actually not that bad. Kirwan doesn't point out of it's on "catchable" passes or not, though.
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I noticed an error in the 2014 catch rate I posted. This was 42.9% not 62.9% must have fat fingered there.

One out of nine was the worst drop rate cited by Kirwan. So I am not sure how being the worst at something would not be considered bad?

I know you were very down on Marquise Lee because of his drops. Was Lee's drop rate worse than Coates? I know his catch percentage wasn't.
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It's not bad for his overall outlook because he has positives as well. Drop rates have little correlation to fantasy production. Kelvin Benjamin and Martavis Bryant say hello. Also, see my post above on Torrey Smith.Lee is small, not physical, and not a great route runner. He didn't have enough positives for me to outweigh his bad hands.

Having great hands doesn't mean much either if you're not talented enough to get drafted high or even get on the field.

 
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I just thought it would be helpful context to compare Lee's drop rate to Coates. Or to compare all of the drop rates and where Coates would fit into that picture. I do not have the data to do that myself. All I have is catch rate.

I will say that I think it would be useful to have some consistency in how players are compared to each other.

All targets are not the same. Some targets may be uncatchable but still recorded as a target. Deep targets are lower percentage plays than short passes, but still counted equally as a target.

The low catch rate concerns me. I have just recently started to get critical of the rookie prospects and focusing on their flaws. Before my perspective was only focused on their potential. I do still think Coates has top 12 WR potential. However catching the ball should be one of the main criteria we are looking for in WR prospects, and Coates shows he has issues in that area of his game.

 
I remember TO dropping a lot of balls over his career. Not saying he is the rule by any means and I also think this drop thing is overblown. It's just hard to come up with any player this athletic.

 
Bojang0301 said:
I remember TO dropping a lot of balls over his career. Not saying he is the rule by any means and I also think this drop thing is overblown. It's just hard to come up with any player this athletic.
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Graham and Calvin drop a lot as well. If you're dominante you can get away with it. Coates has potential to become dominant, but it's far from a sure thing and anyone becoming as good as those guys is always a remote possibility.

 
Just looking at some recent mocks and it looks like Breshad Perryman and Sammie Coates have swapped draft position. I'm seeing more and more mocks where Perryman going in the late 1st and Coates going in the late 2nd. It was the opposite in mocks just after the season ended.

 
I don't really like him. You don't see him really competing for the ball or high pointing it much on film.

Great athletic skill set. No way he makes an impact as a Rookie, I'll pass.

 
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