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Official Ameer Abdullah - The Bandwagon (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter EBF
- Start date
mcintyre1
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
There's a lot of foolishness being posted here but I don't think questioning his ability to translate between the tackles running is one of them.
mcintyre1
Footballguy
I'm curious, do you have the same complaint about Melvin Gordon? I ask because Gordon had a worse fumble rate in 2014 than Abdullah had in either 2013 or 2014. As Abdullah's usage increased, his fumbling decreased.
cstu
Footballguy
Watch him against good teams when he doesn't have huge holes. He's a very agile guy with good burst but he doesn't look like an every down back. People want him to be Charles but he's not.
cstu
Footballguy
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/nfl-draft-scout/25092869/nfl-draft-fumble-rate-among-rb-prospects
Gordon's fumbles are a concern too but with his bigger hands (9 3/4 vs 8 5/8) I think it's easier to correct than for Abdullah.
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mcintyre1
Footballguy
Yeah, I clearly already have. I linked 3 complete games for you already in this thread and summarized them. I've seen every carry of his entire career at Nebraska, as well as some of his high school games. I guess we have to agree to disagree because we're just polluting the thread at this point.
I will pull a few quotes from Matt Waldman's Abdullah RSP write up that I feel are relevant, though:
mcintyre1
Footballguy
The majority of "analysts" on TV, etc. that put out rookie rankings are hardly experts at talent evaluation (not that I am, either). I'd wager that most of them have seen a couple games of a player, but mostly base their personal rankings on 1) how the player is perceived by the community as a whole (ie. Gurley being ranked 1st by damn near everyone) 2) 40 times 3) raw statistics on their college production 4) how closely the player matches the "prototype" of the position.
Actually, I should probably put the "prototype" comparison higher in importance, as that is a limitation that even real NFL scouts face. When your job depends on your ability to predict the future success of a guy you've probably never met, you're going to be inclined to not stray too far from things like the "prototype" for a particular position. If you fight for a QB that's 6'5" 240lbs and has a rocket arm and he flames out, the blame generally falls on the player for not meeting their potential. If you fought for a 6' 200lb guy that doesn't pan out, you're more likely to get blamed for going against the "prototype" and the norm. That's how guys like Russell Wilson fall to the third round when anyone with eyes, a brain, game film, and no job to lose could see all of the characteristics you want in a starting QB.
So, to summarize, "why don't they have this guy in the top 3?":
1) Group think/laziness
2) Obsession with 40 times
4) Focusing on total #'s rather than trends re: statistics. Most write ups that complain about his fumbling fail to mention his significant improvement.
3) He's on the smaller side of the spectrum of historically successful body types for NFL RBs (though by no means a complete outlier to the norm like a Russell Wilson)
I don't "go to the mat" for very many players here on FBGs. The only other one I can think of is Russell Wilson. For most players I haven't seen enough film to feel like I can contradict the conventional wisdom. I try to take in as many different opinions as I can, watch at least a little tape on all of the top prospects and just do my best hoping that things pan out. For Abdullah, though, I have to stick my neck out. I'm virtually certain he will outproduce his draft position and I think he has the potential to be the best fantasy RB in this class.
mcintyre1
Footballguy
Buy Matt's RSP if you want to see why he agrees with me and compares him to a cross between Barry Sanders and DeAngelo Williams. He's quite extensive in his analysis of prospects (this year's version is 1414 pages). If you've never purchased before, I can't recommend it enough. He's exhaustive in his methods and approach.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
That doesn't address your specific, earlier comment. Does he have trouble running inside? Yes or no? And based on what evidence?I'm not disagreeing with you, I'm looking to learn from your perspective.
cstu
Footballguy
In his games vs. lesser opponents most of his successful inside runs were due to tremendous blocking. When he did face good defenses he tends to bounce outside instead of trying to make something on his own inside.
With that said, he is an agile one-cut runner with good burst and would benefit from a zone blocking scheme that would allow him to see a cut back lane and go. If he gets drafted by a good zone blocking team like the Texans I will move him up.
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Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Thanks, appreciate the longer explanation. I haven't watched extensive tape of him, thus haven't personally witnessed that dynamic, but will now keep an eye out for other information that either confirms or conflicts. Thank you again.
mcintyre1
Footballguy
I don't see the point in engaging you anymore. You seem more interested in debating me and my own beliefs than Ameer Abdullah as a player. You asked me to explain my thinking and my ranking, and I did, so I'm done. Feel free to discuss the merits or problems of Ameer as a RB, but frankly I'm completely uninterested in defending my own opinions (which I've always made clear are simply my own opinions) against a random list of mock drafts.
cstu
Footballguy
1 - People see different things when they watch tape
2 - There's a reason why the combine tests the 40. A 4.6 40 for a 200 lb. back is a limiting factor.
3 - I've pointed out my problems with his play in game where his OL wasn't able to dominate the LOS. His fumbling rate isn't good, but not a deal breaker for me.
4 - I have no problem with his size, it's his size/speed ratio that concerns me when projecting him as an every down back in the NFL
Ameer is a NFL RB, there's no question about that - the only question for me is his upside in FF.
mcintyre1
Footballguy
Tremendous blocking. On all of those plays Abdullah gained yards, except for the fourth image where he was tackled in the backfield immediately after being given the ball. Took me all of 10 minutes to snap those screenshots. I'm sure I could find plenty more if I wanted to spend the time. Nebraska's offensive line is a shell of its former self. Abdullah's line last year featured one player that might get drafted, and he was a transfer player from Colorado rather than a regular recruit.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Please don't take this the wrong way, but images tell me nothing. I like to watch video clips, not just single snap shots.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
I don't get this. I watche him completely whiff multiple times in pass protection. Have not seen evidence of him being "fearless in taking on bigger defended in pass protection."
Have others observed the same thing as McShay?
cstu
Footballguy
Waldman had a RSP with RB Chad Spann and they talked about his blocking. I thought they were a little easy on him because I saw him consistently doing a poor job blocking.
Jeremy's Spoken
Footballguy
Why do I just not like this guy??
Is it because he is a senior?
Is it because he is not that fast?
Is it because he went to Nebraska?
I would not use a 1st round dynasty rookie pick on him....
There are many WRs and RBs that I like more than him.
Is it because he is a senior?
Is it because he is not that fast?
Is it because he went to Nebraska?
I would not use a 1st round dynasty rookie pick on him....
There are many WRs and RBs that I like more than him.
EBF
Footballguy
I won't say blocking/ball security are irrelevant, but it's hard for me to think of any promising FF careers that were ruined by problems in those areas. Those seem to be things that every back eventually learns to do at a reasonably good level, so for me they're not a big concern. The only thing that really worries me with Ameer is the lack of sprint speed. That's what will keep him out of the first round of the NFL draft and out of the top 4-5 rookie picks, but he's so good in so many other ways that I'm still pretty optimistic about his chances of becoming a good pro.
cstu
Footballguy
How many 200 lb. RB's with 4.6 speed have been long-term fantasy relevant - Brian Westbrook?
Andre Ellington, who LaDdainian Tomlinson called the best RB in the draft, hasn't turned out like people had hoped and his running in college was just as impressive to me as Abdullah's.
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EBF
Footballguy
When someone says Abdullah is "too small" to be a FF relevant back, it's basically akin to holding up a sign that says "I don't understand Ameer Abdullah's game." I would say he has more strength and power than Gio Bernard and LeSean McCoy, two decent comparisons who have both done some nice things in the NFL. If those guys aren't "too small" to thrive in the NFL then neither is Abdullah. You could also throw out Reggie Bush, Chris Johnson, and CJ Spiller. Three successful NFL backs who are all smaller than Abdullah. Clearly he's not "too small."
We can toss that question out and replace it with one that's more appropriate. He's not too small, but...is he too small for a guy who runs 4.6? I often say that when a player is undersized, he has to compensate with speed and explosiveness. Bush, Spiller, and CJ2K have unreal speed that Abdullah doesn't possess. I think Ameer's skill set/playing style/build are more like Bernard and McCoy. Those two veterans aren't blistering fast, but they're both about .10-.12 faster than Abdullah. Is that tenth of a second enough to seal his doom? Maybe. Maybe not.
The problem with historical comparisons is that they're good for providing rough estimates about what you can expect from a player, but if you keep tightening the criteria then eventually you run out of comparisons. And that makes sense because every player is unique and no two are exactly alike. I can't remember a skinny RB dominating like Chris Johnson...until Chris Johnson. Who would you have said were his historical comparisons back in 2008? Well, plenty of guys had similar size. None had the identical size/speed/college production. He was unique and no one who came before him provided a blueprint for his NFL success.
In the same vein, who are your historical comparisons for Ameer? Take the whole population of NFL RBs from the past two decades and put them through this filter:
- Height between 5'8"-5'9"
- Weight between 200-210 pounds
- 40 time between 4.55-4.65
- Vertical jump between 38"-44"
- Broad jump between 10'6"-11'2"
- 3 cone time between 6.59-6.99
- Prolific college career
- MVP of a major postseason All-Star game
- NFL draft slot between 45-73 (approx. where Abdullah is projected)
My guess is that if you run all of those filters, you will be left with 0 historical comparisons. Even if you cut out half of those criteria, you might not find a "match." And even if you did manage to find a few, a historical sample of 2-3 players is hardly large enough to offer any predictive value.
The thing about Ameer's 40 time is that it's really rare for a small-ish RB to have slow sprint speed and yet still be picked high. So that alone makes him sort of unique and renders the task of finding historical comparisons pretty futile. I don't buy the Ellington comp because their body types (subjectively) and playing style are nothing alike. To me he's in the tradition of guys like McCoy and Bernard. The 4.6 is something that adds a layer of risk compared with a totally "clean" prospect, but then I don't hear anyone saying Abdullah is a top 15 NFL pick or a lock for NFL success.
He is a guy with some freaky athletic traits who dominated in college and potentially fills a role as a Woodhead/Sproles/Dunn/Westbrook/McCoy/Bernard/Mason type who can do some nice things as both a runner and receiver. It's not hard to find fuel for optimism if you want to like him, slow 40 and all. At the same time, if you're looking for a flawless prospect then you'll have to keep looking. There are maybe 1-3 of those in a given draft at QB/RB/WR/TE combined if you're lucky.
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voiceofunreason
Footballguy
I feel like you are arguing that Abdullah is a CoP back and not an every down player, but will be very good in that role. I think almost everyone knows he can be a good CoP back. People are arguing with Nebraska homer who thinks he's going to be great all-around back and put up 1500 yards every year. He's small, slow, has little power, and hasn't had a lot of success against good teams. Really his stats compared to past Nebraska rbs are probably middle of the pack at best in terms of ypc. There's little to no history of someone with his profile being successful. It would be like a sixth round pick being a HOFer. Just because it happens doesn't make it likely.
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mcintyre1
Footballguy
LOL. Alright. Find one place where I made that 1500 yard claim. I'll wait (and continue waiting, because I never did).
mcintyre1
Footballguy
No.
EDIT: To expand (though the lack of effort you're putting in to lobbing criticisms doesn't really deserve it), Helu's highest number of carries in a season never eclipsed Ameer's total carries in his sophomore season, his first as the feature back and lowest # of carries his last three years. Abdullah carried the ball almost an entire season's worth (235 carries) more than Helu over his career. I feel like I shouldn't have to explain this on a fantasy football forum (but your comments in this thread tell me I might need to), but YPC tends to trend downward as the number of carries increases. Despite that, Abdullah's YPC actually increased, season to season.
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cstu
Footballguy
Relax, I obviously give him credit for maintaining that YPC with a high number of carries, but there's also something to be said about the strength of his OL that enabled Helu to average 5.9 YPC over his career.
In Helu's final year he had 188 carries (not a small number) at 6.6 YPC. Abdullah had 76 more carries than that last year and his YPC was a half a yard lower (6.1 YPC).
That doesn't indicate to me that he's vastly superior in talent to Helu.
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EBF
Footballguy
Assuming that he slips out of the top 5-6 rookie picks, I'd feel pretty good about getting a Sproles/Woodhead/McCoy/Bernard/Mason mix at Abdullah's likely ADP. All of my leagues are PPR and he figures to be a nice option in those formats.
Your post emphasizes all of his negatives without lending any weight to the positives. To me that isn't objective. No one disputes that Ameer lacks speed, but he's also probably the quickest and most elusive back in the draft. He tested off the charts in every combine drill outside of the 40. He's a very good receiver, which is really important for FF these days. He carried the Nebraska offense on his back for years.
The "other Nebraska RBs had a higher YPC" line of reasoning is weak. Ken Simonton had the same career at Oregon State as Steven Jackson. Does this mean they're the same guy? College football is not the NFL. I don't care that Jay Ajayi had better college stats than Doug Martin. If he isn't picked higher then the league doesn't believe he's the better prospect.
cstu
Footballguy
I'm not looking at only one thing. In SJax's case he was an elite athlete so it was easy to overlook his YPC in college.
Abdullah is a tough evaluation because he doesn't stand out physically (as a starting NFL RB) and his YPC seems a bit inflated due to his offensive line.
The NFL does a pretty good job of evaluating RB's so I'm looking forward to seeing where he goes in the draft.
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Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Is there a source you prefer to use that evaluates O-line strength? I would be interested in incorporating this into my view of prospects.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
I like Abdullah in the mid to late first for the same reasons. However I feel like the negatives do limit the chance that he's an every down back.EBF said:
mcintyre1
Footballguy
That website actually came up in the Duke Johnson thread, if you care to hear my opinion on the Nebraska offensive line
https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?/topic/724906-dynasty-duke-johnson-miami/?p=17933886
amnesiac
beer is good
early second sounds about right to me. it will very interesting to see when he is drafted.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
FWIW here are the combine and pro day numbers for Ameer and Helu at draftscout
Ameer Abdullah
5' 9"
205 lbs
40 times 4.4 4.5 4.61 . 4.54-4.56 time at pro day.
Bench reps 24
Vertical Jump 42.5"
Broad Jump 10' 10"
20 yard shuttle 3.95
3 cone 6.79
Roy Helu
5' 11"
219 lbs
40 times 4.3 4.4 4.51 .
Bench reps 11
Vertical Jump 36.5"
Broad Jump 9' 11"
20 yard shuttle 4.01
3 cone 6.67
I believe Helu set or came near a record in the 3 cone drill but his other measurables aside from the 3 cone and 40 times Abdullah did better than Helu. Helu was a slightly larger player.
Abdullah is projected to be a second round value by draft scout while Helu was considered a 4-5th round pick. Helu was drafted in the fourth round 105 overall.
Ameer Abdullah
5' 9"
205 lbs
40 times 4.4 4.5 4.61 . 4.54-4.56 time at pro day.
Bench reps 24
Vertical Jump 42.5"
Broad Jump 10' 10"
20 yard shuttle 3.95
3 cone 6.79
Roy Helu
5' 11"
219 lbs
40 times 4.3 4.4 4.51 .
Bench reps 11
Vertical Jump 36.5"
Broad Jump 9' 11"
20 yard shuttle 4.01
3 cone 6.67
I believe Helu set or came near a record in the 3 cone drill but his other measurables aside from the 3 cone and 40 times Abdullah did better than Helu. Helu was a slightly larger player.
Abdullah is projected to be a second round value by draft scout while Helu was considered a 4-5th round pick. Helu was drafted in the fourth round 105 overall.
Madden Curse
Footballguy
I think this bandwagon got some gas after the Lions drafted him with pick 54.
FunkyPlutos
Footballguy
Lions got a good one...he will have space to run with Calvin stretching the field.
