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*** All aboard the J Train - Official Jay Ajayi Thread***

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7 hours ago, tone1oc said:

Funny how your assumptions are more correct than others.   You are assuming that off season coach speak actually matters, and some of us are assuming that actions of the FO giving an offer sheet to another 3 down back is what matters.

Nonetheless, we are here.   Facts are 5th rounder Ajayi with a bone on bone knee and his 3.8ypc will compete with Drake (and perhaps another vet).  Just read that the Miami Herald predicts that the Dolphins will play a hot hand approach with Ajayi/Drake and it will likely be a situation where they are playing along side each other rather than one behind the other.   I mentioned in more depth in the Drake thread, but he profiles very favorably to Jeremy Langford, who dominated touches in both the running and passing game in Gase's offense with Forte out, and still was productive when Forte was healthy.  

Ajayi fluffers are drunk on his upside while ignoring the competition and red flags.. 


ETA: http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article76985797.html

1. Please, show me the medical report, Doctor, medical center, or official source that his knee really was "bone to bone."

2. You don't believe what the coaches are saying about Ajayi but you believe an assumption by the Miami Herald? Really????

3. I'll hang up and listen.

Tex

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26 minutes ago, BigTex said:

1. Please, show me the medical report, Doctor, medical center, or official source that his knee really was "bone to bone."

2. You don't believe what the coaches are saying about Ajayi but you believe an assumption by the Miami Herald? Really????

3. I'll hang up and listen.

Tex

1. http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/nfl/310510/mayock-jay-ajayis-knee-is-bone-on-bone
2. I don't believe coach speak this time of the year, every body is looking good.  I was using the article, wrote by someone more plugged in than you and I, to show that others have the same opinion.  I'm not going to pretend I know for sure, but actions speak louder than words. 
3. You won't listen.  

Can we talk about 3.8ypc and Drake being Langford 2.0 in Gase's system?

Edited by tone1oc

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19 minutes ago, tone1oc said:

Well, Dr. Jason Cole says some sort of space-age flubber was shot in his knee with a caulking gun so he should be 100%.

I do agree with you positive coach speak this time of year is completely be expected, however. Doesn't move the needle. Drake returning kicks would lead me to believe he won't have a huge role from scrimmage. I will certainly be watching how big a role he has on ST's.

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24 minutes ago, BoltBacker said:

Well, Dr. Jason Cole says some sort of space-age flubber was shot in his knee with a caulking gun so he should be 100%.

I do agree with you positive coach speak this time of year is completely be expected, however. Doesn't move the needle. Drake returning kicks would lead me to believe he won't have a huge role from scrimmage. I will certainly be watching how big a role he has on ST's.

Unless the player releases medicals, HIPAA would prevent any medical professional from releasing or speaking of his knee's condition.  Perhaps Mayock source was wrong, but I believe that he was told from someone who did have access to that information.   His slide in the draft from where many thought he would go would certainly corroborate that. 

The analysis of the situation that Drake was drafted to play Special Teams is just completely off base to me.   Is that a part of his game they like?  Certainly. They also have Landry and drafted Jakim Grant, who is a likely return specialist. But from an athletic/skill/speed/size point of view Drake is near clone of Langford, who excelled in Gase's system in a featured role while also being billed as a 3rd down back coming into the league.  

Perhaps Drake ends up busting out, but I just don't believe the Dolphins used the 3.04, and the 3rd back off the board, to return and cover kicks.   I fully expect him to be in a timeshare to start, with both having fantasy relevancy and a chance for either to take the reigns.  I don't believe Ajayi is anything other than an average back, perhaps that's enough to hold off Drake.  I'm saying it isn't..

ETA: I think there is a really good chance that gameflow will dictate week to week production in this backfield, if the Dolphins are winning games and playing from ahead I think the splits will favor Ajayi.  If they are playing from behind and/or Tanny's chucking it 40 times a game (I'd put my money on this) I think it sets up well for Drake getting a lot of touches. 

Edited by tone1oc

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53 minutes ago, BoltBacker said:

Well, Dr. Jason Cole says some sort of space-age flubber was shot in his knee with a caulking gun so he should be 100%.

I do agree with you positive coach speak this time of year is completely be expected, however. Doesn't move the needle. Drake returning kicks would lead me to believe he won't have a huge role from scrimmage. I will certainly be watching how big a role he has on ST's.

This

Edited by BigTex

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3 minutes ago, BigTex said:

1. Not what I asked for.....

2. Ok

3. Sure I will but not from unrealible Rotoworld

Tex

You are asking for medical information that would be illegal for someone to disclose.    Just to be clear here, you are saying it's made up?  A conspiracy perpetuated by the Mayocks of the world to ensure Ajayi falls to the 5th?  

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1 hour ago, tone1oc said:

1. http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/nfl/310510/mayock-jay-ajayis-knee-is-bone-on-bone
2. I don't believe coach speak this time of the year, every body is looking good.  I was using the article, wrote by someone more plugged in than you and I, to show that others have the same opinion.  I'm not going to pretend I know for sure, but actions speak louder than words. 
3. You won't listen.  

Can we talk about 3.8ypc and Drake being Langford 2.0 in Gase's system?

1. Lmao not even close to what I asked for but I'm not surprised you couldn't provide what I asked for because it just doesn't exist. How do you believe in "coach speak" but not misinformation right before the draft?

2. Ok

3. Sure I will but not from unrealible Rotoworld

I answered that already no need to answer that again.

 

Tex

Edited by BigTex

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10 minutes ago, BigTex said:

1. Not what I asked for.....

2. Ok

3. Sure I will but not from unrealible Rotoworld

I answered that already no need to answer that again.

Tex

What is your point in arguing the existence of a widely known issue?  

It's very fair to say that it won't be an issue insofar as it being a long term prognosis, and not something to worry about in 2016.  It's another altogether to just plug your ears and shut your eyes and say "lalalalala", which is essentially what you are doing. 

Edited by tone1oc

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1 minute ago, tone1oc said:

What is your point in arguing the existence of a widely known issue?  

It's very fair to say that it won't be an issue insofar as it being a long term prognosis, and not something to worry about in 2016.  It's another altogether to just plug your ears and shut your eyes and say "lalalalala", which is essentially what you are doing. 

Provide the link! It's not widely known because it was never true and it never existed EVER!

Tex

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I'm asking for one simple thing.....that's it! One!

Can you provide it or not?

Tex

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Well if it's made all made up,  then the best in the world NFL scouts thought he was a 5th round talent. 

He showed that year one.

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1 hour ago, tone1oc said:

Unless the player releases medicals, HIPAA would prevent any medical professional from releasing or speaking of his knee's condition.  Perhaps Mayock source was wrong, but I believe that he was told from someone who did have access to that information.   His slide in the draft from where many thought he would go would certainly corroborate that. 

The analysis of the situation that Drake was drafted to play Special Teams is just completely off base to me.   Is that a part of his game they like?  Certainly. They also have Landry and drafted Jakim Grant, who is a likely return specialist. But from an athletic/skill/speed/size point of view Drake is near clone of Langford, who excelled in Gase's system in a featured role while also being billed as a 3rd down back coming into the league.  

Perhaps Drake ends up busting out, but I just don't believe the Dolphins used the 3.04, and the 3rd back off the board, to return and cover kicks.   I fully expect him to be in a timeshare to start, with both having fantasy relevancy and a chance for either to take the reigns.  I don't believe Ajayi is anything other than an average back, perhaps that's enough to hold off Drake.  I'm saying it isn't..

ETA: I think there is a really good chance that gameflow will dictate week to week production in this backfield, if the Dolphins are winning games and playing from ahead I think the splits will favor Ajayi.  If they are playing from behind and/or Tanny's chucking it 40 times a game (I'd put my money on this) I think it sets up well for Drake getting a lot of touches. 

I believe Mayock has sources. It may have been a team doctor with first hand knowledge. Or it could have been a good 'ol boy scout trying to explain why his team passed. Or it even could have been a great source like a team Dr that simply had an opinion that was an outlier. Before the '16 draft you heard rumors that some teams considered it less than a 50% chance Jaylon Smith would ever play again and folks thought he would be drafted around the 6th round. The DAL team Dr must not have felt that way. I believe Adam Schefter has sources, yet he honestly couldn't figure a way Lynch could get drafted in the first round when multiple teams seemed desperate to move in front of ARZ to draft him. Sometimes sources may flat out lie for Schefter to be that far out of the loop.

You bring up Langford in the Gase offense often, but we may have divergent memories of what happened last season in CHI. The way I remember it Forte was the clear cut bell-cow RB up until the MIN game mid-season. Before that injury Lanford struggled to get in the game with fewer than 3 touches per game(rush AND rec) through the first 6 weeks of the season. Over that 6 game stretch CHI was 2-4 including at least one absolute blowout loss so I am not sure if that bodes well for the gameflow argument. So ultimately it comes down to how convinced you are Ajayi gets hurt.

 I am interested to see Grant in action. Still, MIA has a deep WR roster and it could very well come down to an injury or a long kick return or two just for Grant to make the roster.

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45 minutes ago, tone1oc said:

Well if it's made all made up,  then the best in the world NFL scouts thought he was a 5th round talent. 

He showed that year one.

Looked pretty similar to Melvin Gordon to me, and some of the best scouts in the world were convinced he was a first round talent. I can tell you as a Charger fan I would have much rather had Ajayi in the 5th based on what I saw last year. In fact I said that BEFORE I saw either of them play in the NFL.... but admittedly I am not a world class scout.

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1 hour ago, tone1oc said:

What is your point in arguing the existence of a widely known issue?  

It's very fair to say that it won't be an issue insofar as it being a long term prognosis, and not something to worry about in 2016.  It's another altogether to just plug your ears and shut your eyes and say "lalalalala", which is essentially what you are doing. 

I think that he is arguing the severity of the issue, not the existence of an issue. 

All players are at a risk of injury, some more so than others but it's difficult to predict. All this talk of Jack being the huge injury risk in the draft for instance, and Ramsey being a "safe" pick. 

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http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/nfl-draft-scout/25156179/nfl-draft-boise-state-rb-jay-ajayis-knee-a-concern-for-nfl-teams

Boise State running back Jay Ajayi is one of the most talented and productive running backs in the 2015 NFL Draft class. But the long-term durability of his right knee is a “strong” concern, according to several league sources.

Ajayi injured his right knee in October 2011 and has dealt with cartilage issues in that knee over his career.

Ajayi rushed for 3,796 yards over his career in Boise State and could be a very productive runner in the NFL as a rookie. According to league sources, he is ready to play right now, but the question is longevity of the knee and how long will it hold up? Team doctors are unable to pinpoint a timetable with that question.

With a clean bill of health, Ajayi is one of the best running back prospects in this class and projected top-40 draft pick.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.thephinsider.com/2015/6/1/8695651/are-the-concerns-about-jay-ajayis-knee-real-or-imagined

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mike Mayock is one who said Ajayi's knee is bone on bone

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1 hour ago, BoltBacker said:

You bring up Langford in the Gase offense often, but we may have divergent memories of what happened last season in CHI. The way I remember it Forte was the clear cut bell-cow RB up until the MIN game mid-season. Before that injury Lanford struggled to get in the game with fewer than 3 touches per game(rush AND rec) through the first 6 weeks of the season. Over that 6 game stretch CHI was 2-4 including at least one absolute blowout loss so I am not sure if that bodes well for the gameflow argument. So ultimately it comes down to how convinced you are Ajayi gets hurt.

First, let me just state the obvious in that Ajayi on his best day isn't Forte on his 30 year old worst day.

Okay, now that's out of the way.. Langford didn't "struggle" to get in the game, he was very clearly a backup to a pro bowl caliber player who was known for a ton of volume.  Of course he wasn't going to beat out Forte in camp.  I really don't care what the Bears record was, but what about the 23 touches per game, and RB1 numbers he put up when he had the chance while Forte was out?  Or the RB2/Flex numbers he put up while Forte was in? 

None of this is to say Drake should be projected over 16 games what Langford did in 2015, just that it supports my opinion that Drake was a player that Gase likely targeted as someone he can do a lot of things with.  I love the situation, I like the talent, and I think his competition is a 5th round talent.

So the way I see it, his upside is caped until Ajayi gets hurt.

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1 hour ago, BoltBacker said:

Looked pretty similar to Melvin Gordon to me, and some of the best scouts in the world were convinced he was a first round talent. I can tell you as a Charger fan I would have much rather had Ajayi in the 5th based on what I saw last year. In fact I said that BEFORE I saw either of them play in the NFL.... but admittedly I am not a world class scout.

They are both 5th round talents tbh.. One team just over paid

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10 hours ago, Faust said:

Dolphins coach Adam Gase said Jay Ajayi has taken control of the starting running back job.

"He’s been here every day. Done everything right," Gase said. "The rest of that group has done a good job to try and keep up, but obviously he’s kind of separated himself." Ajayi has drawn praise from Gase multiple times this offseason. He’s the odds-on favorite to start and get all early-down carries. Third-rounder Kenyan Drake doesn’t profile for more than a complementary role.

@tone1oc

After all the other references to articles and coach speak, we are just going to skip of this one? 

This one seems pretty difficult to just brush off. It's not he is saying, "we are going to play the best player" or "we had some good talent and we drafted more." It's not just general coach speech about all the players/RBs. It seems that it is Ajayi's job to lose and that the other backs, specifically Drake, aren't doing enough to take it. 

Everything about knocking Ajayi, right now, is speculation. Did they bring in CJA? Nope. Did they bring in Foster? Nope. Lamar Miller is there? Nope. They are going to bring back Miller? Nope. It's a new coaching staff they don't like him? Nope. Drake was drafted to come in and start? Nope. They aren't sure which one the like better between Ajayi and Drake? Nope. Ajayi won't separate himself from the others? Nope. Everything is has been what ifs and maybes. Nothing actually happened, which should say more than any of the other talk.

So the last hurdle that he has to face is will Gase give him enough volume? Gase has three years as an OC. Let's take a look at what his lead back has done.

2013 - Denver - Moreno had 15 out of 16 starts. He rushed for 1038/10. He caught 60/74 for 548/3. 

2014 - Denver - CJA had 7 out of 15 starts. He rushed for 849/8. He caught 34/44 for 344/2. 

2015 - Chicago - Forte in the six games before he got hurt against Minny was averaging 21 rush attempts, 5.3 target and 3.5 catches. In those six games he rushed for 507 yards (84.5 ypg), had 191 receiving (31.8) and had 3 total TDs. That's a pace for 1352 rushing, 56/508 and 8 TDs.

You're big knock can't be, that Gase doesn't give enough volume to his lead back (see the Faust quote at the top) because Gase gave Langford work after a 29 year old Matt Forte came back from a mid season MCL injury. Can it?

Normally, I try to be very civil and engage in discussions but you've turned this into a debate with you're "drunk" "fluffer" comments. We haven't seen the end but right now, I'd say you're in check son! *Such harsh words, I know. :D *

Edited by Borden
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6 hours ago, The Man With No Name said:

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/nfl-draft-scout/25156179/nfl-draft-boise-state-rb-jay-ajayis-knee-a-concern-for-nfl-teams

Boise State running back Jay Ajayi is one of the most talented and productive running backs in the 2015 NFL Draft class. But the long-term durability of his right knee is a “strong” concern, according to several league sources.

Ajayi injured his right knee in October 2011 and has dealt with cartilage issues in that knee over his career.

Ajayi rushed for 3,796 yards over his career in Boise State and could be a very productive runner in the NFL as a rookie. According to league sources, he is ready to play right now, but the question is longevity of the knee and how long will it hold up? Team doctors are unable to pinpoint a timetable with that question.

With a clean bill of health, Ajayi is one of the best running back prospects in this class and projected top-40 draft pick.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.thephinsider.com/2015/6/1/8695651/are-the-concerns-about-jay-ajayis-knee-real-or-imagined

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mike Mayock is one who said Ajayi's knee is bone on bone

EXACTLY!!! Mayock said it! Not one single team, coach, or Doctor said anything during or after the combine, not one. With all the examinations that took place no one was concerned about the knee but right before the draft Mayock is the only one that said it was "bone to bone." Mayock???? Really??? Right before the draft!?!?!? Looks like someone wanted Ayaji to fall in the draft.

How can anyone believe Mayock's medical repor as the Gospel right before the draft? Lol but don't believe the coach during the off season?!?!?!?

There's not one single report or person has come out to confirm what Mayock said. Not one! 

Ajayi is a better running back than Drake and it's not even close. Both have been injured, Drake has been injured more than Ajayi.

Tex

 
 

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1 hour ago, Borden said:

@tone1oc

After all the other references to articles and coach speak, we are just going to skip of this one? 

This one seems pretty difficult to just brush off. It's not he is saying, "we are going to play the best player" or "we had some good talent and we drafted more." It's not just general coach speech about all the players/RBs. It seems that it is Ajayi's job to lose and that the other backs, specifically Drake, aren't doing enough to take it. 

Everything about knocking Ajayi, right now, is speculation. Did they bring in CJA? Nope. Did they bring in Foster? Nope. Lamar Miller is there? Nope. They are going to bring back Miller? Nope. It's a new coaching staff they don't like him? Nope. Drake was drafted to come in and start? Nope. They aren't sure which one the like better between Ajayi and Drake? Nope. Ajayi won't separate himself from the others? Nope. Everything is has been what ifs and maybes. Nothing actually happened, which should say more than any of the other talk.

So the last hurdle that he has to face is will Gase give him enough volume? Gase has three years as an OC. Let's take a look at what his lead back has done.

2013 - Denver - Moreno had 15 out of 16 starts. He rushed for 1038/10. He caught 60/74 for 548/3. 

2014 - Denver - CJA had 7 out of 15 starts. He rushed for 849/8. He caught 34/44 for 344/2. 

2015 - Chicago - Forte in the six games before he got hurt against Minny was averaging 21 rush attempts, 5.3 target and 3.5 catches. In those six games he rushed for 507 yards (84.5 ypg), had 191 receiving (31.8) and had 3 total TDs. That's a pace for 1352 rushing, 56/508 and 8 TDs.

You're big knock can't be, that Gase doesn't give enough volume to his lead back (see the Faust quote at the top) because Gase gave Langford work after a 29 year old Matt Forte came back from a mid season MCL injury. Can it?

Normally, I try to be very civil and engage in discussions but you've turned this into a debate with you're "drunk" "fluffer" comments. We haven't seen the end but right now, I'd say you're in check son! *Such harsh words, I know. :D *

X2 ??

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12 hours ago, tone1oc said:

ETA: I think there is a really good chance that gameflow will dictate week to week production in this backfield, if the Dolphins are winning games and playing from ahead I think the splits will favor Ajayi.  If they are playing from behind and/or Tanny's chucking it 40 times a game (I'd put my money on this) I think it sets up well for Drake getting a lot of touches. 

Why do you think Drake is a better 3rd down option than Ajayi?

Ajayi has shown to be a very prolific receiver in college and I think that translates to him being a favorite on 3rd downs. If not, Damien Williams has proven to be an effective receiving RB and decent in pass protection. I would expect him to get 3rd down looks over Drake as well.

Drake played out wide as a receiver for Alabama at times. The Dolphins have Landry, Parker and Carroo. How many 4 WR sets do you see Drake breaking into?

At all turns I see players better than he is. Jakim Grant seems like he could compete with Drake for opportunities on special teams and perhaps the constraint play type opportunities as well.

Edited by Biabreakable

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5 hours ago, Borden said:

@tone1oc

After all the other references to articles and coach speak, we are just going to skip of this one? 

This one seems pretty difficult to just brush off. It's not he is saying, "we are going to play the best player" or "we had some good talent and we drafted more." It's not just general coach speech about all the players/RBs. It seems that it is Ajayi's job to lose and that the other backs, specifically Drake, aren't doing enough to take it. 

Everything about knocking Ajayi, right now, is speculation. Did they bring in CJA? Nope. Did they bring in Foster? Nope. Lamar Miller is there? Nope. They are going to bring back Miller? Nope. It's a new coaching staff they don't like him? Nope. Drake was drafted to come in and start? Nope. They aren't sure which one the like better between Ajayi and Drake? Nope. Ajayi won't separate himself from the others? Nope. Everything is has been what ifs and maybes. Nothing actually happened, which should say more than any of the other talk.

So the last hurdle that he has to face is will Gase give him enough volume? Gase has three years as an OC. Let's take a look at what his lead back has done.

2013 - Denver - Moreno had 15 out of 16 starts. He rushed for 1038/10. He caught 60/74 for 548/3. 

2014 - Denver - CJA had 7 out of 15 starts. He rushed for 849/8. He caught 34/44 for 344/2. 

2015 - Chicago - Forte in the six games before he got hurt against Minny was averaging 21 rush attempts, 5.3 target and 3.5 catches. In those six games he rushed for 507 yards (84.5 ypg), had 191 receiving (31.8) and had 3 total TDs. That's a pace for 1352 rushing, 56/508 and 8 TDs.

You're big knock can't be, that Gase doesn't give enough volume to his lead back (see the Faust quote at the top) because Gase gave Langford work after a 29 year old Matt Forte came back from a mid season MCL injury. Can it?

Normally, I try to be very civil and engage in discussions but you've turned this into a debate with you're "drunk" "fluffer" comments. We haven't seen the end but right now, I'd say you're in check son! *Such harsh words, I know. :D *

If you read that article it states that Drake wasn't even at that practice. 

I never said that Gase doesn't give enough volume.. at all.  I think that Drake profiles more favorably to his system, and that Ajayi is just an average back.  Of course all of this is speculation, until we see them perform.  You choose to hang on to june attaboys from coach's during 7 on 7's.  I choose to read into the actions they've made.

As I said, I see this as a split at best with Ajayi and realistic chance that Drake takes control eventually.   You may not be drunk, but you are certainly a fluffer.

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14 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Why do you think Drake is a better 3rd down option than Ajayi?

Ajayi has shown to be a very prolific receiver in college and I think that translates to him being a favorite on 3rd downs. If not, Damien Williams has proven to be an effective receiving RB and decent in pass protection. I would expect him to get 3rd down looks over Drake as well.

Drake played out wide as a receiver for Alabama at times. The Dolphins have Landry, Parker and Carroo. How many 4 WR sets do you see Drake breaking into?

At all turns I see players better than he is. Jakim Grant seems like he could compete with Drake for opportunities on special teams and perhaps the constraint play type opportunities as well.

He's faster, better after the catch and has game breaker skills.  

I do respect your opinion that Drake isn't a good football player.  I said before that if that is your take (he's not good) then fair enough, my problem in this thread is that there seems to be a huge assumption that Ajayi is in line for 3 down work and that Drake was brought in to be a special teams ace.

This is in the range of outcomes, but I don't see it as the likely one. 

I think there is a good chance that Jakim Grant is a better kick returner, and not sure what they'll do with Landry on punts.   I'd read it as a postive indicator if Drake isn't out there on special teams, but I'm sure we'd differ on that opinion too :-)

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3 minutes ago, The Man With No Name said:

Drake had 233 carries and 46 catches in 4 seasons of college ball. 279 touches total. Based on that I would doubt if he can be a lead back in the NFL

He is a curious case of college production.. You could use injuries and future NFL rbs ahead of him as an excuse or as a red flag.  I'm fine with either.  I like that he had a lot of production in small doses.

He does not profile as your typical feature back, but I do see a scenario for this season where Ajayi or his knee fails and he gets feature back touches.    

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6 hours ago, Borden said:

@tone1oc

After all the other references to articles and coach speak, we are just going to skip of this one? 

Actually, that was the exact "coach speak" blurb that I think most people put too much weight into at this time of year and I had assumed tone1oc was referencing.

The entire thing really boils down to, "he kind of separated himself". Well, Drake has been in the league for 10 min and doesn't even really know what an NFL minicamp looks like. Most of the other guys have been to a few of these. They aren't even wearing pads so these drills can't amount to much. "Kind of" separating yourself in May drills just doesn't hold any weight with me. It's the type of quote I would expect to see and if I didn't see it I would be more alarmed than I am reassured by seeing it. And I am firmly in the pro-Ajayi camp btw.

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10 hours ago, tone1oc said:

They are both 5th round talents tbh.. One team just over paid

Well, I consider them both better than 5th round talents, bit it was more an observation that they are all just scouts, world class NFL or not, and they have been proven fallable time and time again. 

There is also a lot of group-think in the NFL front offices and people don't have to look past the Tunsil situation where it only took a few people passing on the best LT prospect in years and suddenly teams are paralyzed with fear over a twitter post they know very little about. 

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Just now, BoltBacker said:

Well, I consider them both better than 5th round talents, bit it was more an observation that they are all just scouts, world class NFL or not, and they have been proven fallable time and time again. 

There is also a lot of group-think in the NFL front offices and people don't have to look past the Tunsil situation where it only took a few people passing on the best LT prospect in years and suddenly teams are paralyzed with fear over a twitter post they know very little about. 

It was late and I posted that for some levity.. I was never a fan of Gordon at his price, but I'm not ready to right him it off and could see myself buying once there is a little more assurance his knee is fine. 

I agree with you on group think, it runs rampant everywhere.  I think part of the reason too, is that some of those teams probably had built their boards without the possibility of Tunsil being there.  Teams were likely faced with a sudden decision to draft the dude with a bong gas mask or go with what they likely spent hours and hours planning.  I hate that the Bears traded up and didn't get him.... 

Tunsil is going to seal that edge for Drake :moneybag:

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59 minutes ago, tone1oc said:

He's faster, better after the catch and has game breaker skills.  

I do respect your opinion that Drake isn't a good football player.  I said before that if that is your take (he's not good) then fair enough, my problem in this thread is that there seems to be a huge assumption that Ajayi is in line for 3 down work and that Drake was brought in to be a special teams ace.

This is in the range of outcomes, but I don't see it as the likely one. 

I think there is a good chance that Jakim Grant is a better kick returner, and not sure what they'll do with Landry on punts.   I'd read it as a postive indicator if Drake isn't out there on special teams, but I'm sure we'd differ on that opinion too :-)

Not sure how the special teams will sort out. I think they throw to Landry so much that it makes sense to try to take him off punt returns. If Drake can do punts, it says good things about his hands and also his elusiveness. I do see signs of Drake having good agility. He has the physical talent, I just don't see him showing good vision or instincts. That could just be because of a small sample size. However when I watch Derrick Henry, he doesn't seem to have good instincts or vision between the tackles and he is getting a lot of opportunities to do that over Drake. When I would see Drake come in right after Henry, he didn't look as good as Henry did as a RB. So there are some degrees of relative comparison there. I think Jay Ajayi shows more developed vision and instincts than Henry does and Henry moreso than Drake.

I think the main difference between our evaluation is that you seem to think Jay Ajayi is a bum, while I think he is one of the top 10 RB prospects to come out the last 3 years. I think he is much better than Langford for example.

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5 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Not sure how the special teams will sort out. I think they throw to Landry so much that it makes sense to try to take him off punt returns. If Drake can do punts, it says good things about his hands and also his elusiveness. I do see signs of Drake having good agility. He has the physical talent, I just don't see him showing good vision or instincts. That could just be because of a small sample size. However when I watch Derrick Henry, he doesn't seem to have good instincts or vision between the tackles and he is getting a lot of opportunities to do that over Drake. When I would see Drake come in right after Henry, he didn't look as good as Henry did as a RB. So there are some degrees of relative comparison there. I think Jay Ajayi shows more developed vision and instincts than Henry does and Henry moreso than Drake.

I think the main difference between our evaluation is that you seem to think Jay Ajayi is a bum, while I think he is one of the top 10 RB prospects to come out the last 3 years. I think he is much better than Langford for example.

I definitely see where you are coming from with Drake, and Waldman, who I obvisouly respect thinks pretty much along those same lines.  One of the things that got me on the Drake train (before it was on the same rails as the Ajayi train) was that he was getting some buzz on twitter at the Senior Bowl, and in the past it's been a good source of under the radar success.  I also put a lot of weight into the draft capital, and that he was the 3rd back taken, I'm essentially reading this as the Dolphins have scouted him to have a role (albiet a likely timeshare) in the offense right away.  Perhaps I'm wrong in that, we'll see.

I don't think Ajayi is a bum, I think he is a capable runner that can punish if you get him to the second level.  But he is limited in tight spots, and you will have a lot of 0-2 yard runs without the home run ability.  I think he will be heavily marginalized by gameflow, and I can't seem to get past the idea of Tanny not chucking it 40-50 times a game. 

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1 hour ago, The Man With No Name said:

Drake had 233 carries and 46 catches in 4 seasons of college ball. 279 touches total. Based on that I would doubt if he can be a lead back in the NFL

I'm not a Drake fan but in fairness he was always playing behind NFL caliber RBs at Alabama during his time there.

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18 minutes ago, tone1oc said:

I definitely see where you are coming from with Drake, and Waldman, who I obvisouly respect thinks pretty much along those same lines.  One of the things that got me on the Drake train (before it was on the same rails as the Ajayi train) was that he was getting some buzz on twitter at the Senior Bowl, and in the past it's been a good source of under the radar success.  I also put a lot of weight into the draft capital, and that he was the 3rd back taken, I'm essentially reading this as the Dolphins have scouted him to have a role (albiet a likely timeshare) in the offense right away.  Perhaps I'm wrong in that, we'll see.

I don't think Ajayi is a bum, I think he is a capable runner that can punish if you get him to the second level.  But he is limited in tight spots, and you will have a lot of 0-2 yard runs without the home run ability.  I think he will be heavily marginalized by gameflow, and I can't seem to get past the idea of Tanny not chucking it 40-50 times a game. 

I appreciate your perspective. I don't use twitter so all of that is unknown to me. I prefer to try to figure things out myself. So that is part of why I don't spend time listening to the many opinions and I am sure very good information that comes along with that. I did a really good job of not reading too much draft talk over the past few months as well. Part of that is I just didn't have time. But now that I have tuned most of it out? I am kind of happy to not know because a lot of that stuff is misinformation. More harm than good.

I see the pick as they needed to replace Lamar Miller. They did get Miller in the 4th round, now if Jay is successful, I think that says some good things about the Dolphins evaluation of RB. This team has been on shaky ground in recent years. I think Gase solidifies their team organizational structure somewhat and that they have a lot of good weapons on offense.

The main formation that Gase uses is 3 WR 1 TE. Cameron is their receiving TE and Landry, Parker, Carroo should be the WRs. This leaves a single back as the most common formation. So they need a RB who can run out of that, pass block and be able to catch the ball. I don't really see RB being used in tandem, like one guy for one drive than another guy for another drive. I see it more as Gase will play the RB who gives him the best combination of those 3 skills and I think that guy is Jay. 

As far as the draft capital consideration, teams use high draft picks on players who have special teams value to them. They value players in these roles more than us playing FF do. The Vikings used a 1st round pick on Patterson mostly because of his athletic skills and kick return ability. Sure they hoped he could develop into a WR as well because they needed starters there but they drafted him to replace Percy Harvin's kick return ability, not because of what he can do as a WR.

You see other teams doing this a lot as well. They will use 3rd round picks for players with special teams value. I am not sure how to evaluate or adjust for that, but if you are going to consider the draft position, I think you need to recognize that teams will use pretty high draft picks on players just for special teams abilities.

I kind of doubt Drake wins the punt return job. I could see him being the kick returner though and what they said is they liked his gunner abilities, I guess he did that for Alabama.

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2 hours ago, tone1oc said:

It was late and I posted that for some levity.. I was never a fan of Gordon at his price, but I'm not ready to right him it off and could see myself buying once there is a little more assurance his knee is fine. 

I agree with you on group think, it runs rampant everywhere.  I think part of the reason too, is that some of those teams probably had built their boards without the possibility of Tunsil being there.  Teams were likely faced with a sudden decision to draft the dude with a bong gas mask or go with what they likely spent hours and hours planning.  I hate that the Bears traded up and didn't get him.... 

Tunsil is going to seal that edge for Drake :moneybag:

You make a great point that several teams may not have expected Tunsil to ever slip so far so they may not have done as deep a background check. In particular I am thinking of the Giants because he was by far the most logical pick at that point and when the Giants passed on him I thought the slide had to be the combination of the silly tweet AND some serious medical that the general public knew nothing about. If I was a Giant fan I would still be fuming about that pick. But as you say if they honestly thought he would be gone well before their pick they may not have combed through his personal history in preperation for the draft as closely and consequently lacked the context of gas-mask-gate both in terms of his past relationship with pot, his odd cicumstances with a step-father, and certainly with his ex-representation.

Still.... Eli F'n Apple over Tunsil? Unless Tunsil is driving down the highway in a white Bronco followed by an entire fleet of news helicopters I draft Tunsil 100 out of 100 times if I am the Giants. Madness.

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3 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I'm not a Drake fan but in fairness he was always playing behind NFL caliber RBs at Alabama during his time there.

And he'll continue to play behind an NFL caliber RB?

The more things change, the more they stay the same??

Tex

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8 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

I don't use twitter so all of that is unknown to me. I prefer to try to figure things out myself. So that is part of why I don't spend time listening to the many opinions and I am sure very good information that comes along with that.

Twitter is a tool, and it definitely can be used badly.  Too much information is noise, in the context of the Senior Bowl, I follow some quality scouts and actual NFL talent evaluators.  I think that platforms such as Twitter are great way to get access to information that we may have only had filtered through a beat guy.   The Senior Bowl seems to be the NFL talent evaluators geek prom, it  really does bring out the best and get a lot of conversation going on prospects.  It's a tricky thing, trying to wade through what is noise and what is not.  I think this is where you have to figure things out for yourself.  

Twitter is also invaluable for in-season injury information and FCFS waivers. 

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Yeah there is usually some good information that comes out of the senior bowl. I think this is where the buzz about David Johnson started IIRC.

 

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11 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I'm not a Drake fan but in fairness he was always playing behind NFL caliber RBs at Alabama during his time there.

That's a fair point but the other edge of that sword is he's played behind some NFL lineman as well and a few other 'Bama RB's have missed their dominating line advantage once they have gotten to the NFL.

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On ‎5‎/‎22‎/‎2016 at 9:05 PM, tone1oc said:

Twitter is a tool, and it definitely can be used badly.  Too much information is noise, in the context of the Senior Bowl, I follow some quality scouts and actual NFL talent evaluators.  I think that platforms such as Twitter are great way to get access to information that we may have only had filtered through a beat guy.   The Senior Bowl seems to be the NFL talent evaluators geek prom, it  really does bring out the best and get a lot of conversation going on prospects.  It's a tricky thing, trying to wade through what is noise and what is not.  I think this is where you have to figure things out for yourself.  

Twitter is also invaluable for in-season injury information and FCFS waivers. 

Twitter is not for everyone but if you are willing to make an effort to sift through the noise, there is a lot of valuable information out there, particularly for those in Dynasty leagues. I don't think it is a coincidence that the people whose viewpoint I respect the most among the staffers here, like Bloom, Waldman, Harmon, are also really active Twitter users.

Twitter actually has been more valuable to me in the last four months than reading this forum. Opinions that have substance without the verbosity, quite often with links to articles that have some spot on expert analysis. I have recently started posting my dynasty trades on Twitter with polls and asking for comments - and the results have been much more satisfying (with a greater number of responses, but few insults and snark) than posting my completed trades in the thread devoted to that here.

And for breaking news, I agree it is invaluable for those in leagues FCFS waivers and for the latest information about a player you have just gotten a trade offer for, as there maybe injury or arrest information that hasn't been picked up yet even by sites such as Rotoworld.  Two sources I would recommend following are: ESPN Adam Schefter, @AdamSchefter    and NFL.com's Ian Rapoport,  @RapSheet

Sorry for continuing the thread hijack. We can now return to the discussion of Ajayi.

Edited by squistion

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Just now, massraider said:

I wouldn't recommend Schefter lately.  He ain't broken squat in a long time. 

If you weren't following him on Twitter you wouldn't have known there wasn't a way for Paxton Lynch to get drafted in the first round.

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I am not one of those people who spends all day looking at their phone. I figure if something is newsworthy it will find me or if I really want to know something, I will find the answer.

info is info regardless of the medium of delivery. I don't like twitter because there isn't any articulate conversations happening there. One of my favorite writers right now is Arif Hasan. I love reading his articles, but his twitter feed is a lot of drek that does not even remotely interest me, and this is a writer I really really like.

So I don't think I am missing out on anything.

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1 hour ago, massraider said:

I wouldn't recommend Schefter lately.  He ain't broken squat in a long time. 

I was not talking about being the first one to break a story. Was talking about breaking news and he has been as good as anyone on that.

Edited by squistion

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At the end of the day the real value is what YOU see. I'm a look for myself type of person and that works for me.

Tex

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5 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

I am not one of those people who spends all day looking at their phone. I figure if something is newsworthy it will find me or if I really want to know something, I will find the answer.

info is info regardless of the medium of delivery. I don't like twitter because there isn't any articulate conversations happening there. One of my favorite writers right now is Arif Hasan. I love reading his articles, but his twitter feed is a lot of drek that does not even remotely interest me, and this is a writer I really really like.

So I don't think I am missing out on anything.

I have had people over the years tell me the exact same thing about the internet, "What am I missing out on?" or "I don't think I am missing out on anything." 

Well, maybe they are right, certainly not for me to say otherwise if they are certain they have everything they need from their current sources of information. :shrug:

Edited by squistion

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3 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

I am not one of those people who spends all day looking at their phone. I figure if something is newsworthy it will find me or if I really want to know something, I will find the answer.

info is info regardless of the medium of delivery. I don't like twitter because there isn't any articulate conversations happening there. One of my favorite writers right now is Arif Hasan. I love reading his articles, but his twitter feed is a lot of drek that does not even remotely interest me, and this is a writer I really really like.

So I don't think I am missing out on anything.

Don't you worry - keep checking the shark pool and good old Faust will have everything covered!

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46 minutes ago, Faust said:

Don't you worry - keep checking the shark pool and good old Faust will have everything covered!

THIS IS ALL WE NEED!!!!!

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