Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
workdog3

*** All aboard the J Train - Official Jay Ajayi Thread***

Recommended Posts

On 5/20/2016 at 11:58 AM, Hankmoody said:

No, I already said what I think it was.  They were willing to take him at a discount, but not at full market rate.  And that's at an already depressed market rate.  The RFA system doesn't work like a live auction does so it's not possible to make them spend more but the intent is the same.  You get the guy at a discount or you don't get him at all.

It's less signing bonus and the same guaranteed money that Ingram got.  And the salary cap went up this year by about 20%.  So no, it wasn't more than Ingram's contract but that's a great comparison.  Ingram also got lowballed and everyone was critical of him for not at least testing the open market first.  Anderson couldn't even beat that deal after shopping himself in a year the salary pool went up significantly.

You are just making up your own narrative here and it is a stupid story at that. He visited Miami before Chicago, so it is much more likely that Miami made a formal offer and Chicago upped it by $1M than your idea that Miami knew the Chicago offer and reduced it by 5.3% with the intent of getting the guy at a discount. 5% is one hell of a discount! :rolleyes:  I mean, c'mon... think it over. Your narrative was pretty half baked. Neither the timeline nor the discount idea actually sound very likely.

So in addition to making up dumb stories, you also like to make up numbers. The salary cap increase was about 8%, not 20%. As for the comparison, Ingram was a first round pick coming off a good season. CJA was an UDFA with two good second halves and coming out of a RBBC situation where he never got more than 15 carries in a game. Due to the tenuous nature of RFAs, those players don't typically generate a lot of offers. The fact that CJA was able to generate two nice offers can only be seen as a positive. The idea that Ingram got lowballed and took it anyway, as an unrestricted FA, is pure speculation on your part.

On 5/20/2016 at 1:36 PM, Biabreakable said:

Page 14 of the thread is where the reports of the Dolphin's signing CJA to a deal. It was on NFL.com and the usual suspects had hot takes saying that this means the Dolphins are not confident in the RBs they have. Then about 6 or more posters have been repeating the same faulty analysis until more recently except for you still stuck on this being the case.

They needed another RB and Gase knows who CJA is. That does not mean the front office wasn't confident in Jay. It means they needed another RB.

Theh more recently I posted in this thread Gase's comments about not realizing how good Jay was until just before the draft when they had their mini camp. They selected Drake is the 3rd round to fill their need for another RB.

The chronological order of these events should have you realizing that the head coach has changed his previous (ignorant) opinion about Jay now that he got to see him in person. If they didn't have confidence in Jay being their guy then why would they draft a special teams COP RB? 

There is a difference between common knowledge and common sense.

If you want to think that Ian Rappaport or whoever had a more legitimate perspective on this situation in March than the head coach has in May good luck with that analysis.

Haha... yeah, offering a relatively big contract is TOTALLY offset by some run of the mill coach speak in May. Had the coaches even seen Ajayi in pads yet when that quote was made?!

I'm glad you brought up common sense and common knowledge. Two things that actually seem to be lacking here:

  • Actions speak louder than words. That's not a hot take or faulty analysis. That's common sense.
  • As for common knowledge, I thought it was well known that coach speak, especially at this time of the year, is particularly useless. Good to see you are gobbling it up and taking it as fact.

And just to be clear on this topic, I'm going to repeat myself from an earlier post: I'm not anti-Ajayi. I just don't think anyone should be shaking their heads at his doubters. He's essentially an unknown with a balky knee. He's got a really great opportunity in this offense, but let's not crown him yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think he is similar to Matt Jones in terms of situation...he has all the opportunity in the world this year which most backs don't.  that being said I don't think he is a dynasty stud or anything.  He may have a great year this year, he may not but I think eventually he is going to end up in some sort of time share

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/22/2016 at 1:54 AM, BoltBacker said:

That's a fair point but the other edge of that sword is he's played behind some NFL lineman as well and a few other 'Bama RB's have missed their dominating line advantage once they have gotten to the NFL.

I know it is still en vogue to poke fun at Trent Richardson, but the rest of the Alabama RBs have looked at least like they could hold their own against NFL competition (Yeldon, Ingram, Lacy).

Just felt the need to point that out. I don't actually like Drake. I suspect in 3 years his name will have vanished from the SP.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

You are just making up your own narrative here and it is a stupid story at that. He visited Miami before Chicago, so it is much more likely that Miami made a formal offer and Chicago upped it by $1M than your idea that Miami knew the Chicago offer and reduced it by 5.3% with the intent of getting the guy at a discount. 5% is one hell of a discount! :rolleyes:  I mean, c'mon... think it over. Your narrative was pretty half baked. Neither the timeline nor the discount idea actually sound very likely.

So in addition to making up dumb stories, you also like to make up numbers. The salary cap increase was about 8%, not 20%. As for the comparison, Ingram was a first round pick coming off a good season. CJA was an UDFA with two good second halves and coming out of a RBBC situation where he never got more than 15 carries in a game. Due to the tenuous nature of RFAs, those players don't typically generate a lot of offers. The fact that CJA was able to generate two nice offers can only be seen as a positive. The idea that Ingram got lowballed and took it anyway, as an unrestricted FA, is pure speculation on your part.

And you are equally speculating that the Miami offer came first.  Regardless of whose offer came first you don't think his agent would call the lower team and say "hey, we have X offered, do you want to match or beat it before we make a decision?".  You believe the guy just signed the first lowest offer he got?

You're splitting hairs with your second argument.  Whether the cap went up 8%, 20%, or 150% the fact is it went up and he still got less money than Ingram the year before.  I don't care why, you can selectively choose any excuses you want, the fact is he got less than the guy that used zero leverage and got lowballed.  CJA got sub-lowballed.  When there is no compensation required to sign an RFA, there's no effective difference between a UFA offer and an RFA offer.  Heck if anything the RFA might get a tad more knowing they have to beat what the incumbent team is willing to match.  A UFA doesn't even have to give them the chance to match, the RFA has no choice.

You can wear whatever CJA-colored glasses you want to.  They have almost $11M in cap space right now and If they truly thought CJA was a bellcow and were hell bent on signing him as a lead back they could easily have done so.  They didn't.  That says all I need to know.  Ajayi may not even be their answer, but saying they thought CJA was because of that offer is laughable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

And you are equally speculating that the Miami offer came first.  Regardless of whose offer came first you don't think his agent would call the lower team and say "hey, we have X offered, do you want to match or beat it before we make a decision?".  You believe the guy just signed the first lowest offer he got?

You're splitting hairs with your second argument.  Whether the cap went up 8%, 20%, or 150% the fact is it went up and he still got less money than Ingram the year before.  I don't care why, you can selectively choose any excuses you want, the fact is he got less than the guy that used zero leverage and got lowballed.  CJA got sub-lowballed.  When there is no compensation required to sign an RFA, there's no effective difference between a UFA offer and an RFA offer.  Heck if anything the RFA might get a tad more knowing they have to beat what the incumbent team is willing to match.  A UFA doesn't even have to give them the chance to match, the RFA has no choice.

You can wear whatever CJA-colored glasses you want to.  They have almost $11M in cap space right now and If they truly thought CJA was a bellcow and were hell bent on signing him as a lead back they could easily have done so.  They didn't.  That says all I need to know.  Ajayi may not even be their answer, but saying they thought CJA was because of that offer is laughable.

No, he said he took less money because he liked the opportunity. If the coaches loved Ajayi that much, I don't think they'd have offered the farm to CJA.

As for the offer, I think it is FAR more likely that my theory is correct - that the first team he visited gave him a formal (and final) offer after negotiations and stood their ground - rather than your theory that the second team he visited made an offer and then Miami made their offer saying, "ok, we offer you $1M less because that 5% discount is really important to us and we like making frivolous offers to RFAs rather than pursuing guys we have a better chance of landing." Both theories are speculation, but one is very logical while the other is a pretty ridiculous, contrived narrative.

I'm sure Anderson's agent called Miami and claimed Chicago was offering more, but Miami obviously stood their ground. Maybe they thought the agent was bluffing or maybe they had told them $18M was their final offer and meant it.

I'm not splitting hairs. I'm flatly calling you out for making **** up. I don't know why you'd lie and say the cap increased 20% when the truth is a 5 second google search away. CJA got more than Ingram money, thus I don't see why people are playing it off like CJA was signed to bolster depth. He was going to make Ajayi irrelevant. As for UFA vs. RFA, I think teams don't like to spend their time trying to secure players that can be matched. While they are negotiating with that player (and waiting for a match decision), they are not negotiating with other players that will be signed before they find out if they did or did not land the RFA. There is a significant risk and opportunity cost associated with pursuing RFAs, thus there are less bidders which typically yields lower bids. Teams bidding on UFAs also have to beat what the incumbent team is willing to match (or over bid), so I don't see how that is a noteworthy difference. Sure the player doesn't have to give his original team the opportunity, but the possibility is not removed.

I'm not wearing CJA colored glasses. I don't know why you think I am. All along I've simply said Ajayi is a risk. CJA just happens to be the player Miami tried to sign to take over the RB job, showing a lack of confidence in their incumbents. I'm glad you can read into Miami not increasing their offer with such clarity. I wish I had that ability. Keep in mind, when they were negotiating with CJA, they didn't know they'd end up with $11M in cap space in May. They had to make a final offer based on their own perceived budget.

Aside from your earlier narrative, the only thing laughable is the assertion that Gase didn't plan to give the job to CJA. He had talked CJA into taking less money by talking up his opportunity in Miami (unless you think CJA lied about that when discussing his decision to take less money). You think CJA took less money to be in an open competition? :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, FF Ninja said:

I know it is still en vogue to poke fun at Trent Richardson, but the rest of the Alabama RBs have looked at least like they could hold their own against NFL competition (Yeldon, Ingram, Lacy).

Just felt the need to point that out. I don't actually like Drake. I suspect in 3 years his name will have vanished from the SP.

I am not saying they are all busts, but Ingram started pretty bad and only recently has turned into a bell-cow, Lacy just the opposite and last year was full blown RBBC, and after a year of Yeldon JAX felt the need to go RBBC. As a group I feel comfortable saying they have been a disappointment given their draft position.

It's also worth noting Richardson, Ingram, Lacy, and Yeldon were all considered absolute studs in college and even they have had mixed success after leaving...... Drake wasn't really near their level. He does have a different style though so it will be interesting to see how his skill set translates to the NFL. In the Saban era only Coffee was drafted where Drake was drafted, and we know how that turned out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

 

They offered the guy $7.6M guaranteed.  That's less than Ivory, less that Forte, heck that's only $1.6M more than Bilal Powell got guaranteed (and yes, less than Ingram).  That's not "come take over this job" money.  You're kidding yourself.

But please, latch onto the fact I missed a guestimation on the cap increase.  The % doesn't change the point but go ahead and chew that bone.

I've made my point three times now.  If you don't see it that's on you, I'm done here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, BoltBacker said:

I am not saying they are all busts, but Ingram started pretty bad and only recently has turned into a bell-cow, Lacy just the opposite and last year was full blown RBBC, and after a year of Yeldon JAX felt the need to go RBBC. As a group I feel comfortable saying they have been a disappointment given their draft position.

It's also worth noting Richardson, Ingram, Lacy, and Yeldon were all considered absolute studs in college and even they have had mixed success after leaving...... Drake wasn't really near their level. He does have a different style though so it will be interesting to see how his skill set translates to the NFL. In the Saban era only Coffee was drafted where Drake was drafted, and we know how that turned out.

Ingram's problem was never ability. The Saints weren't giving him a chance. He was always a bell-cow, but just wasn't getting fed like one. Lacy got fat(ter) but his talent was apparent as a rookie. As for Yeldon, I don't have a feel for him, but them blowing money on Ivory doesn't make him bad.

There are plenty of guys who are college studs that aren't deemed NFL starter material.

Either way, I actually agree with you that Drake isn't on those guys' level. I think all of them are competent NFL starters when healthy and in shape. Drake, not so much... which is good news for Ajayi owners. Ajayi may or may not be good, he may or may not be healthy, but IMO he has very weak competition.

21 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

They offered the guy $7.6M guaranteed.  That's less than Ivory, less that Forte, heck that's only $1.6M more than Bilal Powell got guaranteed (and yes, less than Ingram).  That's not "come take over this job" money.  You're kidding yourself.

But please, latch onto the fact I missed a guestimation on the cap increase.  The % doesn't change the point but go ahead and chew that bone.

I've made my point three times now.  If you don't see it that's on you, I'm done here.

I'm not latching onto anything. I just called you out for making **** up to strengthen your weak point. You called that "splitting hairs" and I said, no, just pointing out you made that number up. Somehow pointing out a lie went from "splitting hairs" to "latching onto". It was neither.

Yes, your point has been that you are good at weaving together laughable narratives and you think guaranteed money is the only important aspect of a contract for a 25 year old RB. (As long as he doesn't flop, he's very likely to get all four years of his deal, but even if he didn't, he was getting paid well in year 1 and was going to get a lot of touches. Guaranteed money matters more for old RBs. His second year salary is tiny (and partially guaranteed) and by 2018 and 2019, $4.5M/yr for a 27 and then 28 year old RB won't be very steep. Especially if they start increasing the cap by 20% per year. But none of those last 3 years matter for this conversation). You keep saying it was not significant money, therefore he was just depth. Aside from that being wrong, you keep ignoring that he had a direct conversation with Gase and chose Miami based on the opportunity. You really believe that opportunity was an open competition? Feel free it ignore that and keep posturing like I'm missing your point.

I've never not seen your point. I've address all your points and shot them to pieces. It wasn't very hard so I'm not boasting, just clarifying since you can't discern between someone missing your point or someone addressing your point. I still think Ajayi could be good this season. I just feel compelled to challenge logic behind the hubris exerted by his dynasty owners.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, BoltBacker said:

I am not saying they are all busts, but Ingram started pretty bad and only recently has turned into a bell-cow, Lacy just the opposite and last year was full blown RBBC, and after a year of Yeldon JAX felt the need to go RBBC. As a group I feel comfortable saying they have been a disappointment given their draft position.

It's also worth noting Richardson, Ingram, Lacy, and Yeldon were all considered absolute studs in college and even they have had mixed success after leaving...... Drake wasn't really near their level. He does have a different style though so it will be interesting to see how his skill set translates to the NFL. In the Saban era only Coffee was drafted where Drake was drafted, and we know how that turned out.

I forgot to say, didn't Coffee look pretty good in the NFL but then decide to quit and become a preacher or something? I just recall him being the popular Frank Gore handcuff.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

I just feel compelled to challenge logic behind the hubris exerted by his dynasty owners.

Very well said, much more eloquent than "drunk on upside fluffers".  We don't share the same opinion of Drake and I'm more down on Ajayi than you, but you have been spot on.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

I forgot to say, didn't Coffee look pretty good in the NFL but then decide to quit and become a preacher or something? I just recall him being the popular Frank Gore handcuff.

Not to my recollection, although he didn't really see enough action to say either way:

Numbers for his only season: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CoffGl00.htm

Rushing: 83 attempts, 226 yards, 1 TD, 2.7 YPC

Rec: 18 targets, 11 receptions, 76 yards, 0 TDs, 6.9 YPR

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

 

Haha... yeah, offering a relatively big contract is TOTALLY offset by some run of the mill coach speak in May. Had the coaches even seen Ajayi in pads yet when that quote was made?!

I'm glad you brought up common sense and common knowledge. Two things that actually seem to be lacking here:

  • Actions speak louder than words. That's not a hot take or faulty analysis. That's common sense.
  • As for common knowledge, I thought it was well known that coach speak, especially at this time of the year, is particularly useless. Good to see you are gobbling it up and taking it as fact.

And just to be clear on this topic, I'm going to repeat myself from an earlier post: I'm not anti-Ajayi. I just don't think anyone should be shaking their heads at his doubters. He's essentially an unknown with a balky knee. He's got a really great opportunity in this offense, but let's not crown him yet.

You are not making much sense here. If you think the words of Sheftler or whomever about the meaning of the contract they offered to CJA is more important than what the HC said after watching Jay I don't know what to tell you. If a reporter does get some good information it usually comes from the coaches, so why do you cling to what a reporter says over what the coach has said?

Here is some common knowledge and common sense for you to consider. The Head Coach is the guy who decides how many snaps and opportunities their players will get. So what the coach thinks is ALWAYS more important than what some :hophead: is saying about these things. If a reporter is repeating what the coach has said, that becomes more relevant because of the source of the information being someone who actually gets to decide how often these players will play.

Your interpretation of the actions (giving CJA a qualifying offer) is off. It is faulty analysis in my opinion and was from the beginning, always has been.

What the coach said is what he said. He has no reason to lie about this. Most of the lying that coaches do occurs in the few months leading up to the draft. If Gase didn't believe what he said he wouldn't have said it. He is motivating all of the other RB to push themselves and try to do what Jay is doing. He is praising Jay for the hard work and preparation that he has been doing. If the coach felt he needed to motivate Jay he would have said something different, such as what Fox has said about it being an open competition with the Bears. Based on his statements, he seems happy with Jay's level of effort and dedication at this point of the offseason.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

You are not making much sense here. If you think the words of Sheftler or whomever about the meaning of the contract they offered to CJA is more important than what the HC said after watching Jay I don't know what to tell you. If a reporter does get some good information it usually comes from the coaches, so why do you cling to what a reporter says over what the coach has said?

Here is some common knowledge and common sense for you to consider. The Head Coach is the guy who decides how many snaps and opportunities their players will get. So what the coach thinks is ALWAYS more important than what some :hophead: is saying about these things. If a reporter is repeating what the coach has said, that becomes more relevant because of the source of the information being someone who actually gets to decide how often these players will play.

Your interpretation of the actions (giving CJA a qualifying offer) is off. It is faulty analysis in my opinion and was from the beginning, always has been.

What the coach said is what he said. He has no reason to lie about this. Most of the lying that coaches do occurs in the few months leading up to the draft. If Gase didn't believe what he said he wouldn't have said it. He is motivating all of the other RB to push themselves and try to do what Jay is doing. He is praising Jay for the hard work and preparation that he has been doing. If the coach felt he needed to motivate Jay he would have said something different, such as what Fox has said about it being an open competition with the Bears. Based on his statements, he seems happy with Jay's level of effort and dedication at this point of the offseason.

I don't care what any talking head has said. Offering another RB starting RB pay is the opposite of a vote of confidence in the incumbent RBs. That's neither me listening to talking head chatter nor is it a faulty take. Pretending like it was meaningless or like that amount of money was just "RB depth" money would qualify as a faulty take.

I don't know why but I get you confused with another screen name, but I think you've been doing this for long enough to not be fooled by coach speak. I don't know all the motivation behind it, but the quote about Ajayi is just like a thousand other coach speak quotes and it means nothing more than the others and they all mean nothing. Coaches just say that kind of fluff to the media because the NFL likes it when they talk to the media so they have to say something. If I cared I could probably find a quote from Coughlin hyping up Ron Dayne in May. Why you want to get all pumped up about this is beyond me. I thought we all expected Ajayi to be the guy if they couldn't sign someone and didn't draft one of the top 2 RBs. So maybe the coach is trying to give Ajayi a vote of confidence or some positive reinforcement or trying to motivate Tatum Bell, but whatever the case, it doesn't mean that Ajayi is going to be a stud. It just means he's the tallest midget. (Is that still a politically correct saying? I don't think Tyrion would approve. Can someone give me an alternative saying?)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

I don't know why but I get you confused with another screen name

It's Bri, and I'm in the same boat. I think it's because of the alliteration and long winded posts.   I appreciate both posters contributions though :thumbup:

27 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

It just means he's the tallest midget. (Is that still a politically correct saying? I don't think Tyrion would approve. Can someone give me an alternative saying?)

"It just means he won a sheet smelling contest" is my preferred nomenclature. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, FF Ninja said:

So maybe the coach is trying to give Ajayi a vote of confidence or some positive reinforcement or trying to motivate Tatum Bell, but whatever the case, it doesn't mean that Ajayi is going to be a stud. It just means he's the tallest midget. (Is that still a politically correct saying? I don't think Tyrion would approve. Can someone give me an alternative saying?)

No, although I usually get around it by saying the tallest Munchkin, which may not be acceptable to the PC crowd either. :hophead:

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So the big hang up/red flag right now (long term there's the knee) seems to be that a new head coach made an offer on a CJA, a youngish back who somewhat knows his system and has preformed fairly well on the field. Correct? 

As someone who likes Ajayi, there's no denying that he has only limited snaps during his rookie year. This seems only logical for Gase to make an attempt at CJA. Why would you not at decent price? A back with about 50 NFL carries is still fairly unknown. Putting myself in Gase's shoes, I go to a team where the starting RB is gone and there's 5th round rookie with 49 carries and an injury concern, that is projected starter. Yes, I would offer my former running back a contract. 

I just don't understand why this is such a huge hang up. And the "actions speak louder than words" thing, the final action was they DIDN'T sign him. They DIDN'T give Anderson a huge contract. That's where are right now.

I don't think Gase came in with Ajayi (or anyone else) pegged as the starter. The reason that Ajayi standing out, or whatever Gase said, means anything is because he could've said "we have a bunch of guys looking good and blah blah blah." In the grand scheme of things it means almost nothing. He might not even think Ajayi is good. He might just like his work ethic. It's an very minor compliment. But it's something positive. If this thread wasn't so active it probably gets forgotten about but it's a nice thing to hear. It would be better to hear reporters and team mates being "amazed" by Ajayi but hey, positives are better than negatives right?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Being the tallest Muchkin might be good enough if Ajayi gets the volume and defenses focus on the Phins passing attack. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Borden said:

And the "actions speak louder than words" thing, the final action was they DIDN'T sign him. They DIDN'T give Anderson a huge contract.

They literally did sign him.  They literally did give Anderson a huge contract.  Denver had the option to match the offer and they chose to do so but Miami wasn't just testing the water. They signed a guy.  Then they spent day two pick on another guy.  And the other guy they flirted with this off season,  Arian foster, is close to passing a physical.  That's all concerning.  It's not a guaranteed death sentence,  but you can't just ignore it either.  

I like ajayi as a buy low,  but his owners don't seem panicked enough.   

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

They literally did sign him.  They literally did give Anderson a huge contract.  Denver had the option to match the offer and they chose to do so but Miami wasn't just testing the water. They signed a guy.  Then they spent day two pick on another guy.  And the other guy they flirted with this off season,  Arian foster, is close to passing a physical.  That's all concerning.  It's not a guaranteed death sentence,  but you can't just ignore it either.  

I like ajayi as a buy low,  but his owners don't seem panicked enough.   

It's just not worth panicking over.  We all continue to spin this different ways to suit us but when you look at it logically, Miami knows the rules when CJA comes to town. If they REALLY want him, they offer him a bigger contract.  Maybe it was as simple as Gase knowing the guy and then saying "hey, if he's that cheap, I'll take him...or at least I'll get a dig in on my old team and make them commit."  You just have to think if this was guy like, say, Shady McCoy out there and teams really wanted him, you give a solid deal knowing what the rules are. 

In the end, we see a lot of stuff that we read tea leaves on and it is very far from the truth.  I remember having Arian Foster on my team and when the Texans drafted Ben Tate it was pretty much consensus that Tate was rookie of the year, he was so much better, that was it for Foster, etc and we all know that was far from the truth. And what did Kubiak actually say? He said all along that Foster was a good player and was the legitimate player for the job. Nobody believed it because, well, you just DONT draft a guy in the 2nd round (that high) and then he's not the guy over a UFA, right? And of course, people will say "But Tate got hurt".  I think we've seen over the years which of the two players was actually the better player, despite the overwhelming majority saying it was Tate. 

The point is, we should play forensic fantasy less and play football more.  When you look at the guys play, you know Ajayi was a good player in college. That's not rocket science. He passed the eyeball test.  You know he looked pretty good when he got the chance last year.  He didn't play enough to have a highlight reel but he was okay.  His coach has supported that with his comments this offseason.  It is what it is. He is who they have.  They also have a rookie who some people like and others say runs a little wild with his legs underneath him and seems more suited for specialty roles.  Who knows?  We also know that as of today they do NOT have foster or any other big name guy.  So what's wrong with going with what we actually have here?  

And since Foster is the only big name linked to Miami at this point and knowing Foster's injury history FAR too well, it just isn't worth panicking about.  Logically, I don't think any team brings Foster in to be the guy they will ride or die with. Everyone knows how great he is but everyone also knows he's got to prove some durability at this point. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Shutout said:

It's just not worth panicking over.

This. Curious statement from fred IMO. How many owners are really counting on Ajayi in a way that should cause them to be panicked?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Just Win Baby said:

This. Curious statement from fred IMO. How many owners are really counting on Ajayi in a way that should cause them to be panicked?

Not panicking and I don't have to count of him. I have Gurley and Zeke starting and Ingram coming off the bench hoping Hyde is healthy and knowing Ajayi is better than Drake is just icing on the cake.

Tex

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, tone1oc said:

It's Bri, and I'm in the same boat.

Wow, nailed it. That is exactly who I was referring to but didn't want to admit it since it seems ridiculous as one name is so much longer. It would help if they would use unique avatars... That's the only way I actually remember who is who.

14 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Who are you referring to? I know I've certainly not meant to insult you. Just challenging your perspective on this particular case.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Shutout said:

It's just not worth panicking over.  We all continue to spin this different ways to suit us but when you look at it logically, Miami knows the rules when CJA comes to town. If they REALLY want him, they offer him a bigger contract.  Maybe it was as simple as Gase knowing the guy and then saying "hey, if he's that cheap, I'll take him...or at least I'll get a dig in on my old team and make them commit."  You just have to think if this was guy like, say, Shady McCoy out there and teams really wanted him, you give a solid deal knowing what the rules are.  

Or perhaps the Dolphins didn't think Denver would match,  because the Broncos hadn't bothered with a higher tender.  Because knowing the rules,  the Dolphins knew that Denver could have avoided another player for CJA by kicking in another 700 grand or so.  

Neither team had a ton of cap room,  so the Dolphins also had to consider cap space,  they could not just throw up front money at him.  

Hypothesizing that the Dolphins didn't really want him is pretty thin,  IMO.  This was not a proven commodity,  who was a free agent.  This was a back that had barely been given the ball,  not been trusted as lead back until the Super Bowl pretty much, and was looking at another year of low pay.  CJ was not getting a Doug Martin deal from anyone.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

This. Curious statement from fred IMO. How many owners are really counting on Ajayi in a way that should cause them to be panicked?

I think you misunderstood.  Not panicked enough to make him a buy low.   I posted I like ajayi as a buy low,  but his owners don't seem panicked enough

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

I think you misunderstood.  Not panicked enough to make him a buy low.   I posted I like ajayi as a buy low,  but his owners don't seem panicked enough

I didn't misunderstand at all. I own Ajayi in one league. Why would I be panicked?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think you did and still do misunderstand, but that's OK. 

If you panicked it would be because the team changed coaches and may have no allegiance to ajayi who never got a chance to show much,  flirted with several running backs this off season, signed cj Anderson to a contract in the off season,  settled on drafting one of the first backs off the board, may still sign foster now that he's close to passing a physical,  and he may literally never get a chance to start in the NFL.  There are a lot of good reasons for somebody who drafted him fairly early to panic and try to get something while they still could, and I would take a flyer on him at the right price if you were looking to dump him. 

But you're not panicked enough by all that to sell him low enough for me to consider him a good buy low value,  so I'm not buying.

I'm not saying that you should be more panicked,  I'm just saying that it's not worth it to me to pay the current price for him unless his owner panics.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

I think you did and still do misunderstand, but that's OK. 

If you panicked it would be because the team changed coaches and may have no allegiance to ajayi who never got a chance to show much,  flirted with several running backs this off season, signed cj Anderson to a contract in the off season,  settled on drafting one of the first backs off the board, may still sign foster now that he's close to passing a physical,  and he may literally never get a chance to start in the NFL.  There are a lot of good reasons for somebody who drafted him fairly early to panic and try to get something while they still could, and I would take a flyer on him at the right price if you were looking to dump him. 

But you're not panicked enough by all that to sell him low enough for me to consider him a good buy low value,  so I'm not buying.

I'm not saying that you should be more panicked,  I'm just saying that it's not worth it to me to pay the current price for him unless his owner panics.  

Your thesis should be "I am not a buyer of Ajayi at his current price".  

I agree. 

Edited by tone1oc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

JWB is saying Ajayi owners likely don't have enough invested to panic.  If a 2nd round pick doesn't pan out it's not a big concern.  No one is giving up Gurley for him, or counting on him as their RB1.  If he doesn't end up panning out it will be disappointing, but hardly something to panic over. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Hankmoody said:

JWB is saying Ajayi owners likely don't have enough invested to panic.  If a 2nd round pick doesn't pan out it's not a big concern.  No one is giving up Gurley for him, or counting on him as their RB1.  If he doesn't end up panning out it will be disappointing, but hardly something to panic over. 

Yes, it was use of the term panic that threw me. I own Ajayi and I didn't have to invest much to own him. I'm not counting on him, but there is certainly no reason to sell him at this point, particularly not for what buyers like fred would be willing to pay. If Ajayi plays well this season, his value will go up. If he doesn't play well, it won't hurt my team's outlook either short or long term.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

JWB is saying Ajayi owners likely don't have enough invested to panic.  If a 2nd round pick doesn't pan out it's not a big concern.  No one is giving up Gurley for him, or counting on him as their RB1.  If he doesn't end up panning out it will be disappointing, but hardly something to panic over. 

Netting a 1st round pick for him now is cashing in your chips, with far less risk. 


ETA: Especially if he is your 4th/5th back as someone said

Edited by tone1oc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That is the opposite of panic though.  I have no idea why you bring that up.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, tone1oc said:

Netting a 1st round pick for him now is cashing in your chips, with far less risk. 


ETA: Especially if he is your 4th/5th back as someone said

No doubt. If someone offered me a first round pick, I'd take it. Is anyone actually getting offers like that for Ajayi? If not, I'm not sure that is relevant to the discussion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

No doubt. If someone offered me a first round pick, I'd take it. Is anyone actually getting offers like that for Ajayi? If not, I'm not sure that is relevant to the discussion.

I say that because startup ADP is around 1.09 in May.. I certainly wouldn't do it, but I'd imagine that a RB needy team that doesn't quite see the risk through upside would.  

As low as I am on Ajayi and his situation, I don't think it would be that smart to part with him for a 2nd unless it was during the draft and I guy that you were targeting fell.  

OR you could swap him for a pick that netted you Kenyan Drake and another piece :shark:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

Who are you referring to? I know I've certainly not meant to insult you. Just challenging your perspective on this particular case.

Your comments did not merit a response beyond this.

I am currently doing a class on diversity and inclusion of people with disabilities in the work place. Your comments are not appreciated by me. They are offensive and devoid of any merit.

Edited by Biabreakable

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Biabreakable said:

Your comments did not merit a response beyond this.

I am currently doing a class on diversity and inclusion of people with disabilities in the work place. Your comments are not appreciated by me. The are offensive and devoid of any merit.

uh huh :rolleyes:

I made zero insults to you (thus not offensive) and backed up everything with sound logic (thus merit was present). Your take on the matter is both faulty and kind of whiny.

If you can't handle a differing point of view, you might need to take a few more classes. You probably aren't very good in the work place.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Just Win Baby said:

No doubt. If someone offered me a first round pick, I'd take it. Is anyone actually getting offers like that for Ajayi? If not, I'm not sure that is relevant to the discussion.

I would give any 2016 rookie draft pick for Jay that was 1.05 or later. I wouldn't trade a 2017 1st for Jay at this time because I believe the price on those picks will be stable and probably rise in the near future. I also think the price on Jay Ajayi is going to rise significantly over the next few months so I would not be looking to sell him right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

uh huh :rolleyes:

I made zero insults to you (thus not offensive) and backed up everything with sound logic (thus merit was present). Your take on the matter is both faulty and kind of whiny.

If you can't handle a differing point of view, you might need to take a few more classes. You probably aren't very good in the work place.

Your previous insults were not directed at me but they were still insults.

Now you have insulted me by saying that I am not good in the workplace. I am a soldier and I know what it means to have respect and to practice team work.

Have a nice life. I shall not waste a moment more on you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Biabreakable said:

Your previous insults were not directed at me but they were still insults.

Now you have insulted me by saying that I am not good in the workplace. I am a soldier and I know what it means to have respect and to practice team work.

Have a nice life. I shall not waste a moment more on you.

:cry:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I would give any 2016 rookie draft pick for Jay that was 1.05 or later. I wouldn't trade a 2017 1st for Jay at this time because I believe the price on those picks will be stable and probably rise in the near future. I also think the price on Jay Ajayi is going to rise significantly over the next few months so I would not be looking to sell him right now.

To clarify, I was thinking any 2017 1st. I agree I'd rather have Ajayi than a late 2016 1st.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

 

I don't recall seeing so many condescending posts in quite awhile. First it was for not using "common sense" and "common knowledge," then looking down on those who use Twitter, "I am not one of those people who spends all day looking at their phone" and for the trifecta, playing the "Support The Troops" card. Oh well...

Anyway, as far as value in rookie picks, 1.09 was Ajayi's high end for months, but with Drake as the only serious competition, I think now it is more like 1.06 - 1.07.

And as far as Ajayi owners panicking, I own him in two leagues and am not - just enjoying the ride, as it is like found money. Figured he was just a backup when they signed Anderson (and remember they front loaded the first year of the contract because they didn't think the Broncos could match) and when that fell through, a lot of the conventional wisdom saw Zeke falling to the Dolphins. The fact that after free agency and the draft, the only threat is Drake turned out to be the best case scenario.

Edited by squistion

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, squistion said:

And as far as Ajayi owners panicking, I own him in two leagues and am not - just enjoying the ride, as it is like found money. Figured he was just a backup when they signed Anderson (and remember they front loaded the first year of the contract because they didn't think the Broncos could match) and when that fell through, a lot of the conventional wisdom saw Zeke falling to the Dolphins. The fact that after free agency and the draft, the only threat is Drake turned out to be the best case scenario.

:goodposting:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, squistion said:

I don't recall remember seeing so many condescending posts in quite awhile. First it was for not using "common sense" and "common knowledge," then looking down on those who use Twitter, "I am not one of those people who spends all day looking at their phone" and for the trifecta, playing the "Support The Troops" card. Oh well...

Anyway, as far as value in rookie picks, 1.09 was Ajayi's high end for months, but with Drake as the only serious competition, I think now it is more like 1.06 - 1.07.

And as far as Ajayi owners panicking, I own him in two leagues and am not - just enjoying the ride, as it is like found money. Figured he was just a backup when they signed Anderson (and remember they front loaded the first year of the contract because they didn't think the Broncos could match) and when that fell through, a lot of the conventional wisdom saw Zeke falling to the Dolphins. The fact that after free agency and the draft, the only threat is Drake turned out to be the best case scenario.

Right? I was playing it by the books with him while he did indeed drop a trifecta in this thread. I'm glad you caught the third part, though. Was just hanging out with a buddy who is in the army and he was straight up going off about the people who play that card every chance they get. Said it was akin to bragging about how much you give to charity.

From a dynasty standpoint, I fully agree with your take. I'm primarily interested in redraft - he looks like a decent gamble where he is now, but I'd rather roll with a proven commodity like Mathews.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, MG345 said:

 

 

Oh the irony.

It's funny when people who don't know the definition of irony try to use the word anyway.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

It's funny when people who don't know the definition of irony try to use the word anyway.

 

It's even funnier when people think they know the definition of irony, correct someone on its usage, but they are incorrect.

 

http://www.isitironic.com/definition.htm

 

Quote

irony
1.

  1. The use of words to express something different from and often opposite to their literal meaning.
  2. An expression or utterance marked by a deliberate contrast between apparent and intended meaning.
  3. A literary style employing such contrasts for humorous or rhetorical effect.

2.

  1. Incongruity between what might be expected and what actually occurs
  2. An occurrence, result, or circumstance notable for such incongruity.

 

Not surprising you don't understand the irony here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, squistion said:

And as far as Ajayi owners panicking, I own him in two leagues and am not - just enjoying the ride, as it is like found money. Figured he was just a backup when they signed Anderson (and remember they front loaded the first year of the contract because they didn't think the Broncos could match) and when that fell through, a lot of the conventional wisdom saw Zeke falling to the Dolphins. The fact that after free agency and the draft, the only threat is Drake turned out to be the best case scenario.

The only name left I'm worried about is Arian Foster.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, KingPrawn said:

The only name left I'm worried about is Arian Foster.

lol.  Foster wouldn't last a quarter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, MG345 said:

 

It's even funnier when people think they know the definition of irony, correct someone on its usage, but they are incorrect.

 

http://www.isitironic.com/definition.htm

 

 

Not surprising you don't understand the irony here.

So you either don't understand what's going on here or you can't understand the definition you just looked up. Either way, not too impressive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.