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*** All aboard the J Train - Official Jay Ajayi Thread***

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9 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Even if the Dolphin's were to sign Foster it does not mean Foster will make the team or earn a significant role in the offense.

 

Hilarious.

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Just now, Biabreakable said:

No but it is warmer than Detroit.

I am not sure what Fosters priorities are. Thanks to Shutout for adding some detail about that. I haven't read the Foster thread in quite some time.

I think Foster to Miami is a strong possibility. If he signs there I would find it amusing that Miller and Foster switched teams. Foster might use that as motivation.

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While foster didn't play many games last year the ones he did were a great value in PPR.

I am not predicting he would be the stater but should have great value late in drafts for a bye week rental who may be dropped if/when he gets hurt. I have been landing Ajayi n some mocks and would feel great about getting Foster as well regardless if I got Ajayi in the 3rd.

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4 minutes ago, Young 8 said:

 

Hilarious.

Some people are easily amused.

Is it beyond the realm of possibilities that Jay Ajayi is a better player than Arian Foster at this stage of his career?

I have pointed out from the Miami Herald article today that the Dolphins are looking for a back up RB. I also pointed out that Gase does not want this to be a time share. So in a scenario where they sign him, that does not mean he will win the starting job in training camp and if he doesn't he may not have much of a role in the offense because Gase does not want to have a RBBC.

What is so funny about that?

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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

Some people are easily amused.

Is it beyond the realm of possibilities that Jay Ajayi is a better player than Arian Foster at this stage of his career?

I have pointed out from the Miami Herald article today that the Dolphins are looking for a back up RB. I also pointed out that Gase does not want this to be a time share. So in a scenario where they sign him, that does not mean he will win the starting job in training camp and if he doesn't he may not have much of a role in the offense because Gase does not want to have a RBBC.

What is so funny about that?

As a Foster owner last year & an Ajayi owner this year, if Ajayi can't beat out Foster then I wouldn't want to start him anyway. Despite his nice totals, Foster looked terrible last year. Running the ball was painful to watch & even the receptions were more volume than big plays. Even with his nice numbers I was actively trying to trade him before he went down last year. Now, he is a year older & coming off a major injury. This is a good time to buy Ajayi cheap.

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Based on comments in this thread, it appears Foster would be the value play. 

Will be interesting to see where his ADP falls if he were to sign with Miami.

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3 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Some people are easily amused.

Is it beyond the realm of possibilities that Jay Ajayi is a better player than Arian Foster at this stage of his career?

I have pointed out from the Miami Herald article today that the Dolphins are looking for a back up RB. I also pointed out that Gase does not want this to be a time share. So in a scenario where they sign him, that does not mean he will win the starting job in training camp and if he doesn't he may not have much of a role in the offense because Gase does not want to have a RBBC.

What is so funny about that?

Your post about Gase not wanting a RBBC wasn't compelling.

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  1. Miami trying to sign a multitude of running backs this offseason.
  2. Miami reaching on a running back in the third round. (only the 3rd running back taken)
  3. Miami now connected to showing interest in Arian Foster.

I feel bad for Ajayi fans.

 

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The fact that the Dolphins went hard after CJ Anderson gives me pause about Ajayi.

Gase has been very positive on Ajayi since then, but that is all without pads.

This one is definitely a wait and see IMO.

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Definitely makes things interesting.  I didn't think it would be Miami but there must be something from Foster's perspective (or human nature to take what you can get).

 

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1 minute ago, Shutout said:

Definitely makes things interesting.  I didn't think it would be Miami but there must be something from Foster's perspective (or human nature to take what you can get).

 

 

Quote

 

Dolphins signed RB Arian Foster to a one-year contract.

Foster appeared in four games for Houston last season, averaging just 2.6 yards per carry but still looking spry in the passing game with a 22-227-2 receiving line on 28 targets. Jay Ajayi remains the favorite to start in Week 1, but we don't believe the Dolphins would sign a player of Foster's ilk as a clear-cut backup, and we don't believe Foster would continue his playing career unless he believed he was going to play. With third-round pick Kenyan Drake also likely to have at least some involvement, the Dolphins' backfield is now amongst the muddiest in the league.

 

 

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34 minutes ago, tone1oc said:

:toilet:

I think it's worse for Drake, as he now has no role with Foster still being very effective in the passing game - but it's certainly not a good thing for Ajayi either. Foster may be old, and not the player he once was but he's still going to be tough for Ajayi to pull away from.  

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I think he is one of the best of the recent era of RBs. Ol ' Foster is going to be run into the ground until the wheels fall off. I don't think he's viewed as an average addition but the beast he is.

I am ready to be proven wrong and see him as some goal line back/short yardage back. The summer will give time for that to happen, if so.

I've never seen a bad Arian Foster. I've seen writers write that he's slowed down and he's not as good, but never truly seen a tired worn down old runner. 

Last year the Texans line was terrible when he was in. He pounded like 15-20 times for only 50 yards then made himself useful in the passing game. Their D was surprisingly terrible during these games giving up 48 to ATL and 44 to MIA. High scores that usually take RBs completely out of the game as teams switch to "come from behind mode."

For me that is some of Arian's hidden value that I adore. He's been behind some bad lines and played for some bad teams and the guy averages 4.5 per carry. He doesn't have the big play ability of Ayaji but he can put the team on his back.

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On 7/18/2016 at 3:56 PM, Dr. Octopus said:

Dolphins signed RB Arian Foster to a one-year contract.

Foster appeared in four games for Houston last season, averaging just 2.6 yards per carry but still looking spry in the passing game with a 22-227-2 receiving line on 28 targets. Jay Ajayi remains the favorite to start in Week 1, but we don't believe the Dolphins would sign a player of Foster's ilk as a clear-cut backup, and we don't believe Foster would continue his playing career unless he believed he was going to play. With third-round pick Kenyan Drake also likely to have at least some involvement, the Dolphins' backfield is now amongst the muddiest in the league.
 

They still have the Oklahoma guy don't they?

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3 minutes ago, Bri said:

They still have the Oklahoma guy don't they?

Damian Williams, yes.

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8 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I think it's worse for Drake, as he now has no role with Foster still being very effective in the passing game - but it's certainly not a good thing for Ajayi either. Foster may be old, and not the player he once was but he's still going to be tough for Ajayi to pull away from.  

Everything they've done this offseason has led me to believe that Ajayi was not their guy.  This signing seals it for me.  I think their plans for Drake haven't changed, though it should limit his touches some.  Ajayi is now a backup when many believed he'd be featured. 

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Say goodbye to my interest in the Dolphins backfield for now.  Nothing about this makes me feel they will be fantasy relevant.

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2 hours ago, tone1oc said:

Everything they've done this offseason has led me to believe that Ajayi was not their guy.  This signing seals it for me.  I think their plans for Drake haven't changed, though it should limit his touches some.  Ajayi is now a backup when many believed he'd be featured. 

Their plans to use Drake as a kick returner hasn't changed most likely. Doubt he has any significant role on offense at all, but maybe they never really planned for that.

Not sure if Ajayi will definitely lose his job to Foster, but the feature role is clearly at least in jeopardy.

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3 hours ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Say goodbye to my interest in the Dolphins backfield for now.  Nothing about this makes me feel they will be fantasy relevant.

Good Post, same for me.

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Quote

The Miami Herald expects Jay Ajayi and Arian Foster to both receive "plenty of carries" this season.

 

The Herald's Barry Jackson expects Foster to "compete with Jay Ajayi for the starting job," which obviously suggests the Dolphins didn't fall in love with Ajay at spring practices and aren't sold on him as a feature back. Ajayi particularly struggled with drops, and Foster shined in the passing game with the Texans last season. As for Kenyan Drake, Jackson wrote the third-round rookie "had some moments in the offseason program but not enough to suggest he was ready to be a reliable No. 2 back." An even split between Ajayi and Foster to begin the season may be the best bet.
 
 
Source: Miami Herald

 

 

Quote

The Miami Herald's Adam Beasley believes Jay Ajayi will still "probably" enter the season as the Dolphins' starter.

 

Beasley seems to disagree a bit with Herald colleague Barry Jackson, who believes the Dolphins will give both Ajayi and Arian Foster "plenty of carries." Coach Adam Gase should address the situation on the first day of training camp at the latest. Ajayi's fantasy Average Draft Position is certain to drop several rounds in the meantime, while Foster's is just as sure to see a multi-round rise.
Related: Arian Foster
 
Source: Miami Herald 
Jul 18 - 5:26 PM

 

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4 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I think it's worse for Drake, as he now has no role with Foster still being very effective in the passing game - but it's certainly not a good thing for Ajayi either. Foster may be old, and not the player he once was but he's still going to be tough for Ajayi to pull away from.  

Agreed.

If Jay can't win the starting role with some good competition like Foster then he isn't as good as I think he is.

The signing makes me doubt some of the positive things Gase has said about Jay recently.

It could be that they didn't like Damien Williams enough as well. They have a lot of RB for training camp now. If they keep Ajayi, Foster, Drake and Williams (my best guess) I'm pretty sure it will be Foster and Ajayi in the top 2 spots. Question is who starts the season.

I don't see a RBBC happening. The lead RB should get most of the opportunity as I do still believe what Gase has said about this. I think the RBBC that formed in Chicago last season was more about Fox than it was Gase.

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12 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

If they keep Ajayi, Foster, Drake and Williams (my best guess)

Smart money is on Drake to IR.

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I does dampen the interest in Ajayi. That could be a good thing. Who really thinks Foster will make it through the year uninjured? The shark play maybe to pick up Ajayi 2 or 3 rounds later then you could have before and stash him. He could very well be capable of a "David Johnson" type push later in the year.

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12 minutes ago, Deaddawg said:

I does dampen the interest in Ajayi. That could be a good thing. Who really thinks Foster will make it through the year uninjured? The shark play maybe to pick up Ajayi 2 or 3 rounds later then you could have before and stash him. He could very well be capable of a "David Johnson" type push later in the year.

Agreed, with Ajayi it's going to be about where you can get him and where you can get the Foster handcuff...my guess is that it will vary quite a bit from draft to draft.

Edited by TripItUp

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Seems early to expect any of these RB to be going to IR. Drake said he should be healthy by training camp. They would put a guy on PUP before they IR them.

I think they want to keep 4 RB and I have heard some positive things about Jakeem Grant possibly winning the punt return job so if they keep him I don't think they can keep Pead or a 5th RB.

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On ‎7‎/‎17‎/‎2016 at 11:03 PM, Biabreakable said:

Not worries about it.

Was Foster good last season? No.

Chasing the past here. I still think most likely landing spot for Foster is with the Patriots.

Do you have the same stance now after pretty much every article and insider disagrees with you?

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12 hours ago, Deaddawg said:

I does dampen the interest in Ajayi. That could be a good thing. Who really thinks Foster will make it through the year uninjured? The shark play maybe to pick up Ajayi 2 or 3 rounds later then you could have before and stash him. He could very well be capable of a "David Johnson" type push later in the year.

 

This. Buying op for Ajayi. I didn't like him in the 5th but I'm buying in some leagues now in the 8th or 9th. No way Foster stays healthy. I've heard this song before.

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12 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Do you have the same stance now after pretty much every article and insider disagrees with you?

Well I have been out on an Island on this all year I think so no what other people think doesn't affect that much. 

I have to respect that Arian Foster has been a very good RB and he could still be that guy. So if he beats out Jay in training camp for the starting job then I will need to conclude that Jay Ajayi may not be as good of a player as my observaiton's tell me he is. Because I don't think Foster is playing at as high a level as he has in the past.

If this were CJ Anderson I would have more confidence in Jay winning the job in training camp than I have about him beating out Foster, who has been hella good in the past, even if he isn't playing at that level now.

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I'm not worried one bit.

The J-train is still running strong!

 

Tex

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So I decided to revise my projections for the Miami because of the Foster signing.

I looked at HC Adam Gase's 4 seasons as an offensive coordinator. 

2012 Denver 450 RB carries 65 RB targets

2013 Denver 426 RB carries 116 RB targets

2014 Denver 401 RB carries 98 RB targets

2015 Chicago 424 RB carries 106 RB targets

The average of these four seasons is 425 rushing attempts 96 targets

This would be 26.6 rushing attempts/game 6 targets/game

So I see the primary RB getting 60% or more of the opportunities on a per game basis which would be 16 rushing attempts/game 3.6 targets/game. 

Over 16 games this would be 256 rushing attempts 57.6 targets. 

The other 40% goes to the RB two for the most part. This would be 10 rushing attempts/game 2.4 targets/game.

Damien Williams or Drake likely get some action mixed in at some point but this will be minimal unless one of the two starters gets injured, or proves ineffective, thus having one of these two move up the depth chart to the RB 2.

I am hoping that Jay Ajayi beats Foster in training camp and maintains his starting job. Because of Fosters injury history, this scenario may be in his best interest as well, because if he gets starter volume, I think that increases his risk of wearing down.

The important part here is the starting RB should get about 20 opportunities/game. 

I previously had Jay Ajayi projected for 300 rushing attempts and 50 targets in the passing game. One of only 6 RB I have projected for similar opportunity in 2016. I still had Damien Williams being the RB 2 but taking a slightly lower share of the opportunities than I think Foster or Ajayi will have as the 2nd RB.

So if Jay does win the starting job in training camp and stays healthy all 16 games I see him having  256 rushing attempts 57.6 targets. 

If Foster starts I don't think he will be able to stay healthy the whole season. He will either have an injury that keeps him from playing for awhile or he won't play well enough to hold Jay off all season. If this happens it will reduce Jay Ajayi's year end totals by 6 rushing attempts and 1.2 targets/game for each game that Foster starts over him, as I would expect Jay to still have the RB 2 role.

To sum up the Foster signing changes my upside opportunity projection for Jay Ajayi I previously had by 50 total rushing attempts, but does not really affect the targets much, which was 50 before.

If Foster wins the starting job then those numbers get chipped away by 6 rushing attempts and 1.2 targets. for each game Foster starts ahead of him.

The above projection is based off of Miami running 1040 total offensive plays. 580 passing attempts and 460 rushing attempts. This projection has Tannehill running the ball 35 times, which is similar to his past rushing attempts and the rushing attempts of QB in Gase offense over the last 4 seasons.  Jay Cutler had 38 rushing attempts last season in this offense and he seems similar to Tannehill as a runner.

This is a 56% to 44% run to pass ratio. I could see dropping the rushing attempts to 42% if Miami is going to throw the ball more. So that could reduce the opportunity for the RB 2 by two or so rushing attempts per game. 

If I account for sacks which based on Tannehill the last 3 seasons, he will be sacked about 40 times. So subtracting that from the total plays, RB rushing attempts might only be 400 instead of 425. So the RB 2 would lose a few rushing attempts there. A bit more than 1 per game.

The RB 2 would be getting 7 rushing attempts/game 2.4 targets/game in those two scenarios.

Edited by Biabreakable
Adding team projections for Dolphins for context

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5 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

So I decided to revise my projections for the Miami because of the Foster signing.

I looked at HC Adam Gase's 4 seasons as an offensive coordinator. 

2012 Denver 450 RB carries 65 RB targets

2013 Denver 426 RB carries 116 RB targets

2014 Denver 401 RB carries 98 RB targets

2015 Chicago 424 RB carries 106 RB targets

The average of these four seasons is 425 rushing attempts 96 targets

This would be 26.6 rushing attempts/game 6 targets/game

So I see the primary RB getting 60% or more of the opportunities on a per game basis which would be 16 rushing attempts/game 3.6 targets/game. 

Over 16 games this would be 256 rushing attempts 57.6 targets. 

The other 40% goes to the RB two for the most part. This would be 10 rushing attempts/game 2.4 targets/game.

Damien Williams or Drake likely get some action mixed in at some point but this will be minimal unless one of the two starters gets injured, or proves ineffective, thus having one of these two move up the depth chart to the RB 2.

I am hoping that Jay Ajayi beats Foster in training camp and maintains his starting job. Because of Fosters injury history, this scenario may be in his best interest as well, because if he gets starter volume, I think that increases his risk of wearing down.

The important part here is the starting RB should get about 20 opportunities/game. 

I previously had Jay Ajayi projected for 300 rushing attempts and 50 targets in the passing game. One of only 6 RB I have projected for similar opportunity in 2016. I still had Damien Williams being the RB 2 but taking a slightly lower share of the opportunities than I think Foster or Ajayi will have as the 2nd RB.

So if Jay does win the starting job in training camp and stays healthy all 16 games I see him having  256 rushing attempts 57.6 targets. 

If Foster starts I don't think he will be able to stay healthy the whole season. He will either have an injury that keeps him from playing for awhile or he won't play well enough to hold Jay off all season. If this happens it will reduce Jay Ajayi's year end totals by 6 rushing attempts and 1.2 targets/game for each game that Foster starts over him, as I would expect Jay to still have the RB 2 role.

To sum up the Foster signing changes my upside opportunity projection for Jay Ajayi I previously had by 50 total rushing attempts, but does not really affect the targets much, which was 50 before.

If Foster wins the starting job then those numbers get chipped away by 6 rushing attempts and 1.2 targets. for each game Foster starts ahead of him.

The above projection is based off of Miami running 1040 total offensive plays. 580 passing attempts and 460 rushing attempts. This projection has Tannehill running the ball 35 times, which is similar to his past rushing attempts and the rushing attempts of QB in Gase offense over the last 4 seasons.  Jay Cutler had 38 rushing attempts last season in this offense and he seems similar to Tannehill as a runner.

This is a 56% to 44% run to pass ratio. I could see dropping the rushing attempts to 42% if Miami is going to throw the ball more. So that could reduce the opportunity for the RB 2 by two or so rushing attempts per game. 

If I account for sacks which based on Tannehill the last 3 seasons, he will be sacked about 40 times. So subtracting that from the total plays, RB rushing attempts might only be 400 instead of 425. So the RB 2 would lose a few rushing attempts there. A bit more than 1 per game.

The RB 2 would be getting 7 rushing attempts/game 2.4 targets/game in those two scenarios.

You were expecting Ajayi to rush the ball 300 times?

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6 hours ago, BigTex said:

I'm not worried one bit.

The J-train is still running strong!

 

Tex

Not one bit?

I traded Ajayi away in the one league I owned him, because I really needed help at WR, but I'm still a fan of his talent. However, anyone that claims signing Foster means nothing at all to Ajayi's prospects for this season comes off like they're trying to convince themselves. There's no logical way to look at this as a good thing for Ajayi. It could be worse of course, since Foster is older and coming off a major injury, so I can see taking the stance that you still think Ajayi will earn the starting role and the larger share of carries but to act as if there's no way that Foster is a threat comes off as disingenuous.

 

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37 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

You were expecting Ajayi to rush the ball 300 times?

Yup.

Maybe still will but as I said I have revised that down to 250.

The signing of Foster shows they are not confident in Drake being able to handle the RB 2 role yet. It also says they may not be that excited about Damien Williams as their RB 2.

The competition was weaker before than it is now. 

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I will be amazed if Foster doesn't at least begin the season as the workhorse back.  He's injury prone, but the guy can run like most can't.  And his best asset has always been his vision and ability to pick the right hole, which he should still have.

 

I think Jay is now a high upside backup playing behind an injury prone starter.  I would not bet on anything beyond that.

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46 minutes ago, (HULK) said:

I will be amazed if Foster doesn't at least begin the season as the workhorse back.  He's injury prone, but the guy can run like most can't.  And his best asset has always been his vision and ability to pick the right hole, which he should still have.

 

I think Jay is now a high upside backup playing behind an injury prone starter.  I would not bet on anything beyond that.

I get that burst was never Foster's thing, but when you are already older and have bottom barrel burst, it does make me wonder if there's enough burst left after an achilles injury to be anything close to a workhorse RB. 

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2 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Not one bit?

I traded Ajayi away in the one league I owned him, because I really needed help at WR, but I'm still a fan of his talent. However, anyone that claims signing Foster means nothing at all to Ajayi's prospects for this season comes off like they're trying to convince themselves. There's no logical way to look at this as a good thing for Ajayi. It could be worse of course, since Foster is older and coming off a major injury, so I can see taking the stance that you still think Ajayi will earn the starting role and the larger share of carries but to act as if there's no way that Foster is a threat comes off as disingenuous.

 

I'm not one bit concerned about Foster.....not one.

Tex

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1 hour ago, (HULK) said:

I will be amazed if Foster doesn't at least begin the season as the workhorse back.  He's injury prone, but the guy can run like most can't.  And his best asset has always been his vision and ability to pick the right hole, which he should still have.

 

I think Jay is now a high upside backup playing behind an injury prone starter.  I would not bet on anything beyond that.

A thought clicked in my head as I read this: It MIGHT be worth remembering that when Foster was at his best, he had a great and sometimes overlooked O-line. 

I have posted enough about Foster over the years to where It is easy to see I am often the first to defend/promote him so I'm not posting to tear him down by any means but I think it is worth filing in the back of our heads as he now comes to a new team. I hope he rocks it out this year and we see a turn back the clock. He was so much fun (when you own him, of course) to watch.  But I think it gets harder to make straight-line comparisons as he ages, changes teams AND has the injuries. 

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11 hours ago, ourmanflint said:

This. Buying op for Ajayi. I didn't like him in the 5th but I'm buying in some leagues now in the 8th or 9th. No way Foster stays healthy. I've heard this song before.

:goodposting:

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I think he now has some upside as a zeroRB candidate in redraft.  In dynasty, I still think his value is still way over inflated as many (as in this thread) still believe Foster is just a temporary road block.  Even if Foster got hurt you'd likely only have a portion of 2016 where he would get the touches to be usable, and it's looking like those touches will not be in the passing game.  Many are still overlooking the fact that the Dolphins have tried early and often to replace him, and they will definitely be looking to add a RB in next year's stacked class.   I don't see any longterm upside, he's not going anywhere for a few years unless he's cut.  Which would be even more  damning. 

Edited by tone1oc

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Ajayi owner ...not the LEAST bit worried..Foster is a has-been ..only twice in his 7 yr career has he played a full 16 games..TWICE..now he's supposedly coming back from a torn Achilles'? Lets not forget the high degree of flaky this guy brings to the table.so you can expect his normal shenanigans..Ajayi is the bellcow with Foster being a pass catcher only..

Lets also not forget Foster spent his entire career in the AFC South one of the worst divisions in NFL in the past decade when you look at run defense..jags.colts.titans. The Have-nots divison. 

Foster career v. Afc south 4.68 ypc avg.

Foster career avg v afc East 4.12..

Let those numbers sink in.

4.12..with GOOD wheels.Now coming off a flat tire you expect anything above, say, 3.50 in THAT division? Thats :loco:

 

Edited by Tanner9919

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300 carries? :no: That was never going to happen.

I'll bet the house on the under for 250 carries. Couple people likely to be kool-aid drowning victims.

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12 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

Ajayi owner ...not the LEAST bit worried..Foster is a has-been ..only twice in his 7 yr career has he played a full 16 games..TWICE..now he's supposedly coming back from a torn Achilles'? Lets not forget the high degree of flaky this guy brings to the table.so you can expect his normal shenanigans..Ajayi is the bellcow with Foster being a pass catcher only..

Lets also not forget Foster spent his entire career in the AFC South one of the worst divisions in NFL in the past decade when you look at run defense..jags.colts.titans. The Have-nots divison. 

Foster career v. Afc south 4.68 ypc avg.

Foster career avg v afc East 4.12..

Let those numbers sink in.

4.12..with GOOD wheels.Now coming off a flat tire you expect anything above, say, 3.50 in THAT division? Thats :loco:

 

THis might be hard to reply to and get my point across because I'm with you as far as "If I owned Ajayi, I wouldn't be all worried about it that much".  However, with that being said, talking about Foster in terms of "he's only done this twice" and "he's only averaged this ypc against these teams", etc is just WAY out there.

 

The reality is, call it what you want, Foster is, fact, also finished as a difference making top 5 RB about 4-5 times and his YPC isn't as much as a factor because its his receiving and ability to get into the end zone that is the difference maker.

He's never been "weak" outside the AFC South.  I remember him destroying the Steelers, Seahawks and Bengals one year when all those teams were elite defenses.  When he plays, he is pretty much matchup proof. 

The reality of it all is people who own Ajayi (or don't like Foster) better pray that Fred Taylor didn't leave a bottle of that "I was banged up for about 3-4 years straight and then got healthy again those last couple of years" serum down there in Florida because if Foster is Healthy, he will take the job and keep it for a season or two. Just by likelihood, Sadly, I don't expect Foster to be durable for a year or two but if he can, he will put Ajayi on a back shelf and that is not a slight against Ajayi.  Foster is simply one of the best RBs in the league when healthy.

 

Edited by Shutout

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18 hours ago, tone1oc said:

I think he now has some upside as a zeroRB candidate in redraft.  In dynasty, I still think his value is still way over inflated as many (as in this thread) still believe Foster is just a temporary road block.  Even if Foster got hurt you'd likely only have a portion of 2016 where he would get the touches to be usable, and it's looking like those touches will not be in the passing game.  Many are still overlooking the fact that the Dolphins have tried early and often to replace him, and they will definitely be looking to add a RB in next year's stacked class.   I don't see any longterm upside, he's not going anywhere for a few years unless he's cut.  Which would be even more  damning. 

On the first point, I think there's not nearly as much there as a lot of people seem to be reading into it. It might very simply be a case of due diligence.  You have a brand new staff coming in and it is reasonable that they simply kicked as many rocks as possible to be thorough and also put their own stamp on things.  THe Anderson stuff is very reasonable to think that the HC had familiarity and was interested in the comfort of a "known".  The Dolphins let Miller go, a player who a lot of people expect a lot from this year.  He could easily have been everything they wanted, more than Anderson, etc.  Its just choice...and, honestly, not knowing what they have already. The HC is on record to saying he didn't realize Ajayi had some talents he has shown since they have been able to see him.  Could just be a simple case of not knowing you had something pretty good until you see it. 

So, sure, they sign Foster.  No team in the NFL carries one RB and who wouldn't be interested in a very good RB who happens to be available cheap and is suited for the offensive scheme?  To me it says volumes more about the 2nd and 3rd string RBs than it does the player who will likely share carries.  DWIL was a similar type of add last year.  That wasn't taking anything away from Bell. It was simply knowing, and they rightly did, that you need more than one guy. 

On the 2nd point, we who follow FF seems to always try to put promising RBs into places because we NEED RB value, but in real life it seldom works that way. Real teams need rushers and corners and o-lineman much more than they need a rb and that's why we ALWAYS look around the fantasy landscape and see multiple guys who we all think are gems waiting to be found who are "stuck" behind somebody.  THe Dolphins main needs next year absolutely won't be looking for a premier RB.

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2 hours ago, Shutout said:

 

He's never been "weak" outside the AFC South.  I remember him destroying the Steelers, Seahawks and Bengals one year when all those teams were elite defenses.  When he plays, he is pretty much matchup proof. 

 

 

Bad memory. He has never played against the Steelers, Seahawks and Bengals in the same season.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FostAr00/gamelog/

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