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*** All aboard the J Train - Official Jay Ajayi Thread***

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20 hours ago, tone1oc said:

I think he now has some upside as a zeroRB candidate in redraft.  In dynasty, I still think his value is still way over inflated as many (as in this thread) still believe Foster is just a temporary road block.  Even if Foster got hurt you'd likely only have a portion of 2016 where he would get the touches to be usable, and it's looking like those touches will not be in the passing game.  Many are still overlooking the fact that the Dolphins have tried early and often to replace him, and they will definitely be looking to add a RB in next year's stacked class.   I don't see any longterm upside, he's not going anywhere for a few years unless he's cut.  Which would be even more  damning. 

Yeah, if he slips from round 5 to 8 then he'd be a great redraft hail mary. Achilles injuries are extremely tough to rebound from, so I doubt Foster holds that job all year. But like you said, they actually signed a guy to a healthy contract earlier and after that fell through they signed an old, injured Foster so I'm not sure why people are so confident in his dynasty prospects. I can fully get behind "tentatively optimistic" but the blind confidence is straight up silly at this point.

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3 hours ago, Shutout said:

On the first point, I think there's not nearly as much there as a lot of people seem to be reading into it. It might very simply be a case of due diligence.  You have a brand new staff coming in and it is reasonable that they simply kicked as many rocks as possible to be thorough and also put their own stamp on things.  THe Anderson stuff is very reasonable to think that the HC had familiarity and was interested in the comfort of a "known".  The Dolphins let Miller go, a player who a lot of people expect a lot from this year.  He could easily have been everything they wanted, more than Anderson, etc.  Its just choice...and, honestly, not knowing what they have already. The HC is on record to saying he didn't realize Ajayi had some talents he has shown since they have been able to see him.  Could just be a simple case of not knowing you had something pretty good until you see it. 

So, sure, they sign Foster.  No team in the NFL carries one RB and who wouldn't be interested in a very good RB who happens to be available cheap and is suited for the offensive scheme?  To me it says volumes more about the 2nd and 3rd string RBs than it does the player who will likely share carries.  DWIL was a similar type of add last year.  That wasn't taking anything away from Bell. It was simply knowing, and they rightly did, that you need more than one guy. 

On the 2nd point, we who follow FF seems to always try to put promising RBs into places because we NEED RB value, but in real life it seldom works that way. Real teams need rushers and corners and o-lineman much more than they need a rb and that's why we ALWAYS look around the fantasy landscape and see multiple guys who we all think are gems waiting to be found who are "stuck" behind somebody.  THe Dolphins main needs next year absolutely won't be looking for a premier RB.

I definitely interpret the Phins offseason moves as a negative towards their faith in Ajayi.  You could be right about not knowing what you have until you see it and I could very well be wrong.  But to that, it sounds like he was very underwhelming in the passing game and in Gase's offense he can't be a liability in that department.  

I also just can't agree they brought him as a DWill type of insurance as the Steelers did last year.  LeVeon Bell is/was clearly their guy, they knew he'd be out for 4 games.  I absolutely believe Foster was brought in to at least be the better part of a timeshare with Ajayi and Drake.   If anything them bringing in Foster this late shows that the feel they don't have a 3 down back on the roster IMO.  Ajayi is now 1st and 2nd down depth, with some nice short term upside if Foster can't get or stay healthy.

With regard to FFers seeming to need to put promising RBs into places because we NEED RB value.   I actually think this is kind of what you and others are doing with Ajayi.  Most (smart) teams are not looking for a premier RB in the draft, but they will definitively (well NFL definitely) be in the market for a RB next year on some level.  It is absolutely speculation on my part, but given the wealth of rookie RBs coming in and likely a handful of attractive FA's what are the odds the Dolphins don't revisit their very public courting of RBs in 2017?   And pretty much any back they bring in will instantly be a higher priority than Ajayi. 

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1 hour ago, The Man With No Name said:

Bad memory. He has never played against the Steelers, Seahawks and Bengals in the same season.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FostAr00/gamelog/

I was mixing the Ravens up with the Steelers. I pretty much see them as the same team but anyway, you're right on the technicality but you're focusing on the wrong part of the story here if you're just trying to be "right" on the schedule.

The point is, he has not been weak against non AFC south teams. As I was looking through the schedules to check what you posted it recalled to memory (as I suppose I need some of these days) that the time period I was thinking of actually was a bleed over of two season (a little more than a year on the technical calendar and not a NFL year, but...) when Foster had a run of facing the Bengals, Ravens, Seahawks and Steelers and Niners (who I had forgotten about). These teams were defensively ranked 8,1,6,2 or so at were very strong defenses. 

 

He shredded the Bengals twice and at one point, in 2013, faced the Ravens, Seahawks, and Niners back to back to back and played well.  So, again, point being, I just didn't want people to think of it as he was just busy all those years beating up on the Jags and Titans every other week. There was a run of about two years there where he was facing all these top teams, the Rams, the Chiefs, Vikes, etc, and all those teams were very good defensively.  Sorry I didn't remember the exact schedule from 4 years ago.

 

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7 minutes ago, tone1oc said:

I definitely interpret the Phins offseason moves as a negative towards their faith in Ajayi.  You could be right about not knowing what you have until you see it and I could very well be wrong.  But to that, it sounds like he was very underwhelming in the passing game and in Gase's offense he can't be a liability in that department.  

I also just can't agree they brought him as a DWill type of insurance as the Steelers did last year.  LeVeon Bell is/was clearly their guy, they knew he'd be out for 4 games.  I absolutely believe Foster was brought in to at least be the better part of a timeshare with Ajayi and Drake.   If anything them bringing in Foster this late shows that the feel they don't have a 3 down back on the roster IMO.  Ajayi is now 1st and 2nd down depth, with some nice short term upside if Foster can't get or stay healthy.

With regard to FFers seeming to need to put promising RBs into places because we NEED RB value.   I actually think this is kind of what you and others are doing with Ajayi.  Most (smart) teams are not looking for a premier RB in the draft, but they will definitively (well NFL definitely) be in the market for a RB next year on some level.  It is absolutely speculation on my part, but given the wealth of rookie RBs coming in and likely a handful of attractive FA's what are the odds the Dolphins don't revisit their very public courting of RBs in 2017?   And pretty much any back they bring in will instantly be a higher priority than Ajayi. 

My observation to the bolded would be, how do we know he was underwhelming? He hadn't been in Gase's offense (which is my thought on they don't know what they have until they actually see it).  I guess if I have an unknown, I might go buy insurance too...just in case.  Point being, I just don't put all the stock into "they think Ajayi sucks so they got Foster". I think its more like  "well, who knows until we know and Foster is available and he won't be if we don't get him now". 

Why will the "definitely be looking for a RB next year?  How do you know this?  Are they truly likely to spend a 3rd this year and then go hunting again next year?  I guess the answer is yes they might if Foster breaks because they need 3-4 guys as a whole but I think it suggests that they were terrible in their selection process this year with Drake to say they definietely have their eye on 2017 already. 

 

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14 minutes ago, Shutout said:

My observation to the bolded would be, how do we know he was underwhelming? He hadn't been in Gase's offense (which is my thought on they don't know what they have until they actually see it).  I guess if I have an unknown, I might go buy insurance too...just in case.  Point being, I just don't put all the stock into "they think Ajayi sucks so they got Foster". I think its more like  "well, who knows until we know and Foster is available and he won't be if we don't get him now". 

Why will the "definitely be looking for a RB next year?  How do you know this?  Are they truly likely to spend a 3rd this year and then go hunting again next year?  I guess the answer is yes they might if Foster breaks because they need 3-4 guys as a whole but I think it suggests that they were terrible in their selection process this year with Drake to say they definietely have their eye on 2017 already. 

 

I read somewhere that he struggled in with route running and drops in the OTA's.  I don't think the Phins think Ajayi sucks. I think they look at him as a limited albeit capable runner and that they want a guy that can play all 3 downs and that even 30 year old Arian Foster is a better RB than Ajayi.   The only wildcard here is health IMO.   I'm projecting my own analysis of Ajayi as a runner in with all the other tea leaves.  I do respect your opinion, and many people share it. 

They will "definitely" be looking for a RB next year because they were this year and only found a temporary band aid.   Sure, if Ajayi or Drake studs out that is not so definite.  I don't see that happening.

Edited by tone1oc

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And I jumped out of this train... while getting two players with a trade afterwards. The price was just right so I couldn't resist.

Still, I like Jay Ajayi and I'm not that afraid of Foster. Really scared to see how good Jay will be :rolleyes:

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5 hours ago, Fireinside said:

And I jumped out of this train... while getting two players with a trade afterwards. The price was just right so I couldn't resist.

Still, I like Jay Ajayi and I'm not that afraid of Foster. Really scared to see how good Jay will be :rolleyes:

If those players are useable then you did really good.:thumbup:

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5 hours ago, Fireinside said:

Really scared to see how good Jay will be :rolleyes:

:confused: Have you watched him play?

Good luck with whoever you got for him.

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13 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

:confused: Have you watched him play?

Good luck with whoever you got for him.

I have and I have not been eagerly impressed, but I was in the Freeman thread over  a year waiting and waiting, watched his whole years film, sold him for another player, saw Coleman get drafted... then cursed myself for the whole year as Freeman was on fire.

I learned my lesson. I really think that people are looking too much on last year. If Jay starts well, Foster stays in his last years form, he can have a monster season- that's how I look at things. I think I'm too much of situation valuator than than talent, I admit it. But I think if J-Train would have been drafted this year everyone would be so high on him that this thread would have exploded. I like Jay as competitor and a player, don't know why everyone is so down on him, but I really don't have a train in this race anymore so it will be interesting to watch who this ends. 

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Hey if you like what you got no reason to look back. 

Players from the RB position are always in flux. For the most part I think you have to look at them based on what they can do for you this year, because whatever they do it might not last long.

I don't see how this is influenced by what happened last season, when Jay was in a much worse situation, a offense that struggled and turned the ball over too much. A defense that didn't help the offense get back on the field enough and game scripts that caused them to abandon the run too often. Lamar Miller being a much better player than what Jay is competing against now.

As far as situation goes, I think that is an important thing to consider, especially for a RB who even if they are one of the best talents, they still need a good situation for them to be really successful. Freeman's situation is a good example as no other receivers besides Jones, certainly helped him get a lot of targets in the passing game, or Miller last season, who was not set up for success despite how clearly talented he is, then look at his situation now, where he will likely get more looks with Houston than he did with Miami.

I don't think many RB are in a better situation than Jay this year. I have a lot of confidence in Gase's offense being good for all the players involved in it. That Arian Foster chose to play for Gase I think reinforces that view as well.

A few days back I was reading a Greg Rosenthall article about players who might not make the team out of training camp. He lists Foster as one of those players, talking about how Miami is only on the hook for 400k if they did decide to let Foster go. It is really little risk on their part. Rosey apologizes for even listing Foster in his bubble article as this was only a handful of days after Miami signed him, but obviously he has heard something that caused him to mention Foster anyways.

Recently I saw some news that Damien William's not being in the best conditioning and that Gase was perhaps not confident in him, obviously some better depth was needed and Foster if/when healthy enough can provide that.

From Joes email: 

Quote

MIA - RB Damien Williams out of shape

Source: The Miami Herald - Armando Salguero

Miami Dolphins RB Damien Williams (undisclosed) reported to training camp out of shape and is not ready to practice. Head coach Adam Gase is upset with Williams because he was out of shape during offseason workouts as well.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

The signing of Arian Foster put Williams roster spot in danger, and it doesn't sound like he is doing much to make a compelling case to stay on the roster. Isaiah Pead and Daniel Thomas could get more run in camp and the preseason and maybe even stick as the fourth running back if Williams can't redeem himself soon.

 

Also Damien Williams was added to the PUP list (along with Foster).

Drake is their only other option right now and Drake can't pass block.

Hard for me to envision the situation lining up much better for Jay than how it has.

Talent + opportunity + health = success and so far I see all of those things lining up for Jay. Love his talent and the situation, a coach that will keep pressure on the defense with the passing game, creating some favorable game scripts for the RB.

The Dolphins defense could potentially still be a problem, the offensive line is still a work in progress, Jay still unproven and a bit unknown right now. There just inst much not to like about the situation imo.

As for your previous comment, I wasn't sure what you meant by that. I thought you were saying you didn't really believe in Jays talent as a RB. There are people who do have that point of view. I thought your roll eyes meant you didn't believe in Jays talent and you were afraid of waiting to see that revealed. Your most recent comment "not eagerly impressed" suggests the same thing. I am not sure what eagerness has to do with it? It isn't like there has been anything that has happened or even could happen during the offseason to cause impatience?  But if you don't get a warm fuzzy about it from watching Jay then it completely makes sense to move on.

When I watch Jay I get pretty excited. So we have a different perspective about that.

Again good luck to you with the new players you acquired for him.

Edited by Biabreakable

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The battle starts. Foster is off the PUP list, practicing and making 1 handed over the shoulder catches.

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Just catching up on what happened day two of training camp. It sounds like they spent a lot of time working on goal line offense listening to Gase's press conference. At the end of it he takes a dig at the beat writers being more negative about things than what the reality is.

So I am not the only one noticing that about the beat writers. Gase seemed kind of sick of them already, and its early.

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I think it's a good time to buy low, this guy is a player and a Foster has proven to be made of glass.

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Hold on to your butts, Jay is not practicing today due to a knee injury.

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On ‎7‎/‎31‎/‎2016 at 8:40 AM, Biabreakable said:

A few days back I was reading a Greg Rosenthall article about players who might not make the team out of training camp. He lists Foster as one of those players, talking about how Miami is only on the hook for 400k if they did decide to let Foster go. It is really little risk on their part. Rosey apologizes for even listing Foster in his bubble article as this was only a handful of days after Miami signed him, but obviously he has heard something that caused him to mention Foster anyways.

He heard that the team is planning to cut the guy they just signed and have talked up as the likely starter? I think he's clearly just speculating.

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25 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Hold on to your butts, Jay is not practicing today due to a knee injury.

:coffee:

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14 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

He heard that the team is planning to cut the guy they just signed and have talked up as the likely starter? I think he's clearly just speculating.

Probably. It is just something that stuck out to me when reading that.

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35 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Hold on to your butts, Jay is not practicing today due to a knee injury.

Expletives.

I was wondering why I didn't hear much about Jay from yesterday.

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Miami Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi misses practice

Quote

Jay Ajayi is supposed to be the Dolphins' starting running back.

But on the first padded practice of the year, Ajayi was nothing but a spectator.

Ajayi missed practice Monday with a knee injury, the severity of which was not immediately known.

Ajayi spent the early part of practice on the exercise bike next to Dion Jordan and Damien Williams, both of whom are rehabbing.

Here's why the Ajayi development is a bit alarming: Ajayi had chronic knee issues in college, with a lack of cartilage in the joint.

 

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Quote

Armando Salguero ‏@ArmandoSalguero  6m6 minutes ago
Jay Ajayi said once the swelling caused by the bone bruise to his knee goes down he'll be back to work.

Armando Salguero ‏@ArmandoSalguero  10m10 minutes ago
Jay Ajayi said he's just nursing a bone bruise in the knee. Don't expect to be out long.

 

Edited by Biabreakable

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I can understand some folks may not like this train shifting to a roller coaster.

It is too late for me to get off. Just have to ride it out. Hopefully it takes me somewhere this year.

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Adam Beasley says the bruise is to Jay's left knee. 

Quote

Bone bruise in the left knee for Ajayi. Will only be out for a couple of days.

Does anyone know if this is the same knee as was injured before?

According to this it was his right knee that had surgery. 

Edited by Biabreakable
It was the right knee that had surgery

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7 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Adam Beasley says the bruise is to Jay's left knee. 

Does anyone know if this is the same knee as was injured before?

According to this it was his right knee that had surgery. 

Great, now he has two bad knees. ;)

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1 minute ago, Alex P Keaton said:

Great, now he has two bad knees. ;)

Well it would be more concerning if the swelling were from the same knee I think. So that is sort of good news.

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15 minutes ago, Skanker said:

Dat Knee Doe:violin:

 

He's not very good either

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Quote

 

Dolphins coach Adam Gase made it sound like Arian Foster will be the team's No. 1 back this season.

Gase left little doubt Foster is being prepared to be the Dolphins' starter. "He is going to be working with the ones the whole training camp," Gase said. "His resume speaks for itself. I don’t think there’s any question why we brought him in here. He’s playing this year. Whether he’s the guy that will be the first snap of the game, time will tell. He is going to be rolling with the ones." Jay Ajayi's setback with his knee has further solidified Foster's place atop the depth chart.

 

 

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I just drafted him late in a dynasty league. I like his chances of starting at some point this season and doing well.

I've seen this scenario so many times before - elderly vet who's had a great career but is on his last legs, young hungry talented back behind him.

Even if the vet begins the season starting he usually doesn't end it. This is like Ricky Watters and Shaun Alexander; or Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson; or Marshall Faulk and Steve Jackson. I'm showing my age here, but you get the point. No matter how glorious the career of the old running back, if you've got a talented young back waiting to be unleashed, it will happen sooner or later.

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Here's how I think if it in dynasty...

His value currently > his value when Miller was still there

His value currently < his value before Foster arrived

In total, if you drafted him as a rookie and still have him, his value has gone up from your acquisition cost. Granted we all got giddy a few months ago when Miller left, but overall he's an ascending asset. 

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"(Foster) is going to be working with the ones the whole training camp," Gase said, via the Miami Herald. "His resume speaks for itself. I don't think there's any question why we brought him in here. He's playing this year. Whether he's the guy that will be the first snap of the game, time will tell. He is going to be rolling with the ones."

Link

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35 minutes ago, mr roboto said:

Here's how I think if it in dynasty...

His value currently > his value when Miller was still there

His value currently < his value before Foster arrived

In total, if you drafted him as a rookie and still have him, his value has gone up from your acquisition cost. Granted we all got giddy a few months ago when Miller left, but overall he's an ascending asset. 

I'm still surprised I got the value of "before Foster arrived" after Foster arrived, but I'm a happy camper. 

Edited by Fireinside

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"Most bone bruises slowly heal over 2 to 4 months. A larger bone bruise may take longer to heal. You may not be able to return to sports activities for weeks or months."

 

Something is off here. Ajayi is saying he will be back as soon as the swelling goes down. Which would be a matter of days, not weeks or months. This would be less concerning for a player that wasn't missing a bunch of cartilage in his knees. He also said that he didn't notice it until after practice. Which means it likely wasn't a contact injury. 

Edited by Borden

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As someone who was high on Ajayi a few months ago, I think I misread the signs. 

I was focused on "he's not good enough" arguments against him when I should've been looking at it as "he's not healthy enough." Gase hadn't even seen him so why was he actively trying to get other backs? Ajayi didn't have bad tape either. However, it is very easy and requires very little time for a coach to get an up to date medical evaluation from the team doctor. Trying to put the pieces together now I think Ajayi's knees might already be at the point of failing. 

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for those of you doubting Foster and that are believers in Ajayi, this is the perfect scenario for you right?

I mean, if Foster is made of glass, and Ajayi is as awesome as some in this thread have stated...you would be getting a steal.  :ph34r:

Edited by TripItUp
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33 minutes ago, Borden said:

Link

"Most bone bruises slowly heal over 2 to 4 months. A larger bone bruise may take longer to heal. You may not be able to return to sports activities for weeks or months."

 

Something is off here. Ajayi is saying he will be back as soon as the swelling goes down. Which would be a matter of days, not weeks or months. This would be less concerning for a player that wasn't missing a bunch of cartilage in his knees. He also said that he didn't notice it until after practice. Which means it likely wasn't a contact injury. 

This is consistent with what I've read about his condition which I posted and was flamed for ITT.  He is going to be dealing with chronic pain and swelling in that knee.  It's science.

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24 minutes ago, tone1oc said:

This is consistent with what I've read about his condition which I posted and was flamed for ITT.  He is going to be dealing with chronic pain and swelling in that knee.  It's science.

What's inflamed ITT. Sorry a Google search didn't result in much. 

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2 minutes ago, Borden said:

What's inflamed ITT. Sorry a Google search didn't result in much. 

I said flamed which is when people argue you on a message board in this context.

ITT = in this thread

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Just now, tone1oc said:

I said flamed which is when people argue you on a message board in this context.

ITT = in this thread

Sorry. Thank you for clearing that up. 

Yes, you are right. That's what I was saying too, basically. That him claiming this is just a "bone bruise" and he will be fine is not true. This is the point that medical staffs were worried about. The cartilage in his knee may have been able to hold up longer but it didn't. The worst part is that it's going to get worse and worse. It's not going to be occasional chronic pain and swelling. There is cartilage grafts available but it's a 10-18 month full recovery cycle. Plus, there's the chance the graft doesn't take. 

At this point there's very little hope for Ajayi as a fantasy option. He is not a special enough player. He's a guy I liked if he could be a workhorse back. Foster is irrelevant at this point because Ajayi isn't a guy that can just roll into a game and maybe crack off some big plays. I feel he could've been a capable and stable starter but needed volume, which he never get because his knee won't hold up. 

If he does get the surgery and it does take, he's still a year removed with injury concerns. Then he will have to fight his way back up a depth chart after a year off. And while I like him, he's not good enough to force his way into a workhorse role. Which means we are talking about sitting on a guy for a year (and we don't even know when/if that surgery happens) then have to wait for him to, likely at best, be in a time share. 

It would be nice if I was a bigger scumbag and I would try to move him now. 

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33 minutes ago, tone1oc said:

FYI that site is complete snake oil and hilariously wrong every year. 

That was the first time I've ever been on that site. You can't predict injuries, lol.

 

I just googled "Arian Foster injury history".

Edited by Eminence

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1 hour ago, tone1oc said:

This is consistent with what I've read about his condition which I posted and was flamed for ITT.  He is going to be dealing with chronic pain and swelling in that knee.  It's science.

I'm not interested in the Miami RB situation at all anymore, but isn't the bone bruise in the other knee, not the one that allegedly has the bone on bone condition?

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41 minutes ago, Borden said:

Sorry. Thank you for clearing that up. 

Yes, you are right. That's what I was saying too, basically. That him claiming this is just a "bone bruise" and he will be fine is not true. This is the point that medical staffs were worried about. The cartilage in his knee may have been able to hold up longer but it didn't. The worst part is that it's going to get worse and worse. It's not going to be occasional chronic pain and swelling. There is cartilage grafts available but it's a 10-18 month full recovery cycle. Plus, there's the chance the graft doesn't take. 

At this point there's very little hope for Ajayi as a fantasy option. He is not a special enough player. He's a guy I liked if he could be a workhorse back. Foster is irrelevant at this point because Ajayi isn't a guy that can just roll into a game and maybe crack off some big plays. I feel he could've been a capable and stable starter but needed volume, which he never get because his knee won't hold up. 

If he does get the surgery and it does take, he's still a year removed with injury concerns. Then he will have to fight his way back up a depth chart after a year off. And while I like him, he's not good enough to force his way into a workhorse role. Which means we are talking about sitting on a guy for a year (and we don't even know when/if that surgery happens) then have to wait for him to, likely at best, be in a time share. 

It would be nice if I was a bigger scumbag and I would try to move him now. 

Do you have any medical facts to cite or are you just making stuff up?

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