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Biabreakable

Dynasty and Redraft: David Johnson RB Arizona Cardinals

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Mike Jurecki of FOX Sports 910 Phoenix expects David Johnson to handle 60 percent of the Cardinals' running back touches this year.

 

Jurecki foresees a 30 percent role for Chris Johnson, with Andre Ellington at 10 percent. For comparison, 2015 No. 1 overall fantasy back Devonta Freeman logged 73 percent of Atlanta's running back touches. The 60 percent mark is a bit lower than first-round running back drafters should want to see, but could also rise as the season progresses once David separates himself from Chris and Ellington. As a three-down back in one of the NFL's best offenses, David is tough to fade even if he's not utilized as a true 20-plus touch-per-game workhorse.
 
Jun 9 - 6:28 PM

 

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On 4/5/2016 at 4:04 PM, Biabreakable said:

My 2014 rookie rankings

Tier 1 - 1st round rookie pick value
 
WR Sammy Watkins
WR Mike Evans
RB Bishop Sankey
WR Marqise Lee
RB Carlos Hyde
WR Odell Beckham Jr.
WR Brandin Cooks
TE Eric Ebron
WR Jordan Matthews
WR Davonte Adams
 
 
Tier 2 - Potential 1st round rookie pick value in a good situation. 2nd-3rd round value if not.
 
QB Johnny Manziel
RB Charles Sims
RB Tre Mason
TE Jace Amaro
WR Cody Latimer
WR Kelvin Benjamin
WR Donte Moncrief
RB Lache Seastrunk
QB Teddy Bridgewater
WR Allen Robinson
WR Jarvis Landry
RB Devonta Freeman
QB Blake Bortles
RB Jeremy Hill
QB Jimmy Garoppolo
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins
QB Derek Carr
 

Pretty extensive debate with DAG about Hill who I compared to Michael Bush.

Totally felt like I had egg on my face in regards to Hill after his break out, but still doubted he would sustain that level of performance. I am a believer in Gio Bernards talent as to me Gio is a poor mans DeAngelo Williams.

Listened to Hill supporters saying that Hill beat out Bernard for the feature RB role while I thought the pattern of RBBC would continue and I think Bernard is the better player. Hue Jackson stuck with Hill last season despite Bernard clearly outplaying him while Andy Dalton was healthy.

I like the Gio comparison in the that he is a really talented RB that could be a beast if he ever got a chance to have the backfield to himself. 

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I can see Chris Johnson getting a few carries here and there, but he was already starting to wear down before he got hurt and doesn't offer much that DJ can do at this point. Even DJ's pass pro seemed to improve last year.

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The Cardinals' website confirms there is "little doubt" David Johnson will be the "anchor" in Arizona's 2016 backfield.

 

ESPN's Josh Weinfuss created a stir when he suggested David could lose his starting job to Chris Johnson. No one else close to the team is buying that. Cardinals.com's Darren Urban does believe "there will be a place" for each of the team's three tailbacks, insisting Chris and Ellington "will be used." FOX Sports 910's Mike Jurecki recently projected David would log 60 percent of the Cardinals' 2016 touches, leaving 30 percent for Chris and 10 for Ellington.
 
 
Jun 13 - 4:31 PM

 

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Hard to match Faulk's vision but physically DJ is more gifted. I doubt he's as good as Faulk though......

For fantasy purposes he's the #1 RB in PPR this year. Faulk might be the all time #1 RB in PPR.  Big difference. 

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1 hour ago, Milkman said:

Hard to match Faulk's vision but physically DJ is more gifted. I doubt he's as good as Faulk though......

For fantasy purposes he's the #1 RB in PPR this year. Faulk might be the all time #1 RB in PPR.  Big difference. 

Agree.  There was that time in FF where the guy with the #1 pick just said "faulk", followed by "Think I'll take a four month nap and then see who joins me in the playoffs."  He was really one of the last guys who could literally carry you to the playoffs all by himself.

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More physically gifted than Faulk?  Nonsense.

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On February 14, 1994, at the NFL Scouting Combine Faulk ran a 4.28 forty-yard dash.[9] and on March 31, he ran a 4.35 forty-yard time at the San Diego State Pro Day LINK

 

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40 minutes ago, Chaka said:

More physically gifted than Faulk?  Nonsense.

Yeah DJ is bigger and more explosive. He doesn't have the top end speed but at his size he's every bit the athlete. 

Edited by Milkman

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1 hour ago, Milkman said:

Yeah DJ is bigger and more explosive. He doesn't have the top end speed but at his size he's every bit the athlete. 

Let's see him prove it a little more on the field before we go all-in with that comparison.

With comparisons like that it is very clear that he is going to go waaaaay too early in most drafts.

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12 minutes ago, Chaka said:

Let's see him prove it a little more on the field before we go all-in with that comparison.

With comparisons like that it is very clear that he is going to go waaaaay too early in most drafts.

Yeah I'm not saying he's anywhere close to Faulk as a FF asset. He is a bigger more explosive athlete though. Does that translate to the field at the level Faulk did?  Probably not. 

 

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And when I say probably not I mean there's a near 0% chance he's the next Faulk in FF. 

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3 hours ago, Milkman said:

And when I say probably not I mean there's a near 0% chance he's the next Faulk in FF. 

You base this on?

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7 hours ago, Milkman said:

Yeah I'm not saying he's anywhere close to Faulk as a FF asset. He is a bigger more explosive athlete though. Does that translate to the field at the level Faulk did?  Probably not. 

 

DJ is bigger but you and I must have very different definitions of explosive.  IMO Faulk was one of the most explosive to ever play RB.

I loved what I saw from DJ last season and I think he could be a great one.  But Faulk put up 1,500 yards and 10+ TDs in 9 of his first 10 seasons (or was it 10 of 11?).  Whatever he was ridiculous. 

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3 hours ago, Otis said:

You base this on?

Are you familiar with Marshall Faulk?

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To be fair, on a small sample size, DJ did put up very impressive numbers and appears to have a rare combination of pass catching and running ability.  He could be special...then again he may not be special.

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Being special and being the GOAT are to vastly different outcomes. He could be the best back in the NFL for the next 3 years and still not be as good as Faulk.

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20 hours ago, Milkman said:

Being special and being the GOAT are to vastly different outcomes. He could be the best back in the NFL for the next 3 years and still not be as good as Faulk.

Agree.  

In a football context (size, speed, power, running style, receiving skill, etc.) which RBs (past or present) are the best comps for DJ?

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Matt Forte, in pretty much every regard.

That comes from someone who thinks over the same time period that Forte was a better RB than Peterson.

Edited by Run It Up
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37 minutes ago, Run It Up said:

Matt Forte, in pretty much every regard.

That was my first thought.

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It's not a bad comp but Forte has better vision. DJ is a more explosive athlete. 

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I don't understandwhat you're trying to say but I would have drafted Gurley in front of DJ last year in rookie drafts. This year I'd draft DJ in front of Gurley. Gurley is a fantasic RB but he's stuck on a pretty bad offense. DJ will have twice the scoring opportunities this year. 

 

Dynasty value between the two is pretty even for me. 

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No way.  Gurley is much better than Johnson.  This guy could even get on the field until 22 different running backs got hurt.  He was fresh when everyone else was beat up.

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2 minutes ago, Sabertooth said:

No way.  Gurley is much better than Johnson.  This guy could even get on the field until 22 different running backs got hurt.  He was fresh when everyone else was beat up.

Gurley is a much better runner and you can't underestimate the key of being a fresh back when everyone is beat up. In dynasty it's not that close for me between the two, especially considering that Gurley is about 3.5 years younger.

Now redraft PPR is a different story, there it's close for me between the two because DJ is a much better receiver and as we saw when he finally got on the field last year they are inclined to use him often in that capacity. 

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I agree it's much closer in redraft.  However I don't think Ellington is going to be benched. Neither is Chris Johnson.  Those guys still have value to the Cards.  

 

Edited by Sabertooth

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1 hour ago, Sabertooth said:
1 hour ago, Sabertooth said:

No way.  Gurley is much better than Johnson.  This guy could even get on the field until 22 different running backs got hurt.  He was fresh when everyone else was beat up.

 

DJ was my third rated rookie behind Gurley and Cooper. You should watch the first episode of the show All or Nothing. It explains a little more why DJ wasn't playing right away. BH knew he was the best back on the roster immediately and basically said he was holding him back so his head wouldn't get to big.

 

The age difference is huge in dynasty I agree but Gurley has one serious injury to his knee already that DJ doesn't have. I know I'm in the minority so I don't expect to change anybody's mind here but to me it's to close for me to trade one for the other.

Edited by Milkman

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I don't think you have to try and poke holes in Gurley game if you like DJ. The same dichotomy existed before with Peterson and Forte. Peterson(Gurley) will almost definitely have more name value, Forte has had value based in his complete ability and consistency in production, David Johnson was a ### #### machine in college. I'm as concerned about his mileage as I am Gurley injury. But I trust that DJ will be as consistent as he was in college and as he's shown to be last year when given a role from here on.

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Gurley is better than Johnson in my eyes, but your reasoning is not even logical Sabertooth. Sitting behind a player is not always the players fault, coaches do stupid things. After seeing why Okoye got cut, I question anything Arians does now.

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PFF has them graded similarly with Gurley having a slight edge in rushing grade and a major edge in pass pro. David Johnson has a big edge in the passing game. Pass pro is only significant if it limits a players opportunity on 3rd down. Since Arizona is going to use DJ on 3rd downs because he's still adequate that edge Gurley has there means nothing. 

Don't blame anybody for taking Gurley over DJ because the age factor is pretty big. I'd make a small bet DJ outscores Gurley in PPR this year. 

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Unfortunately I have not found any target data for David Johnson in college, but if you watch his three games on draft breakdown (haha) it becomes pretty obvious how gifted he is as a receiver.

Here are Gurley's college receiving stats.

2012    20 targets    16  receptions  117 yards    80.0%  catch rate  5.9 ypt     7.3 ypr
2013    48  targets    37  receptions  441 yards   77.1%  catch rate  9.2  ypt    11.9 ypr
2014    13  targets    12  receptions  57 yards   92.3%  catch rate  4.4 ypt 4.8 ypr

Total 81 targets 65 receptions 615 yards 80% catch rate 7.6 ypt 9.5 ypr

This is pretty good. I could definitely see the Rams using him more as a receiver in 2016.

Edited by Biabreakable

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6 minutes ago, Run It Up said:

A little surprised by that as DJ as a very good pass protector, was one of the best in his class.

Yeah I think he'll improve significantly this year. Big difference in talent coming from where he came from to the NFL. 

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3 hours ago, WheelsUp said:

Gurley is better than Johnson in my eyes, but your reasoning is not even logical Sabertooth. Sitting behind a player is not always the players fault, coaches do stupid things. After seeing why Okoye got cut, I question anything Arians does now.

Do you question his winning percentage?

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No his team wins, cant dispute that, but is that only his doing? Do his DC, coaches and the talent of his players have nothing to do with that?
Do you think cutting a player over a parking spot is a sign of a guy who always makes great decisions? He did keep Johnson on the bench, is that a good decision?

Edited by WheelsUp

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Arians always treats his rookies like ####. The big thing is that he changed his tune immediately after the season. 

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I wonder if they win two more games if they used DJ heavily early on..........I don't get it but Arians is a solid coach so I guess he felt he was doing what's best for the team. 

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1 hour ago, WheelsUp said:

No his team wins, cant dispute that, but is that only his doing? Do his DC, coaches and the talent of his players have nothing to do with that?
Do you think cutting a player over a parking spot is a sign of a guy who always makes great decisions? He did keep Johnson on the bench, is that a good decision?

3 3/4 seasons, 34-14 record, four starting QBs, three defensive coordinators, two offensive coordinators, two different franchises.

Only a very small handful of teams would confidentially take their HC over Arians.

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Thats all great, but he still cut a guy over a parking spot and you are defending it.

But to the points, you are taking his interim credit with a team he didnt run? Isnt Todd Bowles a HC now? Also count the Warner injury and the backups as 4 starting QBs? Thanks for your remark, however, I still will question his judgement. Because I am allowed as a person with my own mind.

Where is Bruces SB titles as a HC since he is so great? Did he win one with the other franchise maybe?

Edited by WheelsUp

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Arians is a good coach. There might be other factors the show didn't expose that made him want to limit DJ's success early. Got to give him the benefit of the doubt. 

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38 minutes ago, WheelsUp said:

Thats all great, but he still cut a guy over a parking spot and you are defending it.

But to the points, you are taking his interim credit with a team he didnt run? Isnt Todd Bowles a HC now? Also count the Warner injury and the backups as 4 starting QBs? Thanks for your remark, however, I still will question his judgement. Because I am allowed as a person with my own mind.

Where is Bruces SB titles as a HC since he is so great? Did he win one with the other franchise maybe?

Really? Arians' record as a head coach is pretty amazing. Not sure why you are so down on him.

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15 hours ago, WheelsUp said:

He did keep Johnson on the bench, is that a good decision?

Not that unusual for a rookie, right? It usually means the player was still learning play calls, blocking assignments, etc.

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21 hours ago, WheelsUp said:

Gurley is better than Johnson in my eyes, but your reasoning is not even logical Sabertooth. Sitting behind a player is not always the players fault, coaches do stupid things. After seeing why Okoye got cut, I question anything Arians does now.

Nah, but holding him back so his head wouldn't get too big sounds like a load of :bs:  

 

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1 hour ago, LittlePhatty said:

Not that unusual for a rookie, right? It usually means the player was still learning play calls, blocking assignments, etc.

IIRC, DJ had a bit of fumbilitis and miss a few pass protection assignments in camp and in the early part of the season, which put him in Arians' doghouse for a time. It took injuries to CJ and Ellington to give DJ a shot, but he obviously took off from there.

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Sure he can call plays, but the guy cut a player over a parking spot. How is that a leader of men?
I will be down on any coach who cuts someone over a parking spot, that is tyrannical.

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