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Dynasty and Redraft: David Johnson RB Houston Texans

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This kid looks like Adrian Peterson to me without the pedigree.

I like the Forte comparison....with better top end speed

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Rich man's Matt Forte. He glides at a 4.4 pace and catches like a WR.

Play this man, Arians.

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Rich man's Matt Forte. He glides at a 4.4 pace and catches like a WR.

Play this man, Arians.

Does no one remember Fred Taylor?

These guys are almost Identical in size and the ease at which they catch the ball.

Fred was faster but Johnson is much faster on the field than his timed stats attribute.

Cards need to wake up and use the guy.

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My :2cents:. I think the biggest difference between the Ellington/Mendenhall era and the Ellington/D. Johnson era is that Johnson is a bigger back and can handle a lead back's role. Ellington has proven he can't stay healthy with 20+ touches a game. He is a 10 to 15 touch 3rd down scat back. Ellington came into a great situation 2 years ago. Times have changed and there is a better option to a injury prone back who can't handle a heavy load. When Ellington gets back, it will be a RBBC for sure but I hope that D. Johnson get the biggest share.

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Adding to the speculation.....not sure if this is the week, but cj2k is now JAG, and Ellington can't stay on the field......DJ has already shown how explosive he is.....it's only a matter of time....I keep seeing speculation of mid season he takes over.....sounds good to me. If Ellington is healthy i could see a pretty even split, or Ellington getting like 60/40....which would be fine for DJ, he doesn't need a high volume at this point to have value......

As has been stated, Mendenhall was JAG also, but only gave Ellington limited touches in his rookie year. Granted, DJ is better built to be an all-purpose back, but it seems from his comments and actions, that Arians trusts his veterans. If the team keeps winning despite mediocre numbers from CJ, that alone won't be enough to give DJ a bigger role.

Well I hope that Arians saying that he plans to use him more and more as the season progresses counts for something because I am all in on him this week pretty much out of necessity.

Not sure if this helps anyone but in the "I'm starting David Johnson over _______________" vein I'm starting him as a floater in a non-PPR over Brandin Cooks, Andre Johnson, Chris Ivory, Karlos Williams and Ryan Matthews (even if DeMarco is out...I think). YMMV

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Rich man's Matt Forte. He glides at a 4.4 pace and catches like a WR.

Play this man, Arians.

Does no one remember Fred Taylor?

These guys are almost Identical in size and the ease at which they catch the ball.

Fred was faster but Johnson is much faster on the field than his timed stats attribute.

Cards need to wake up and use the guy.

Taylor was a more powerful runner.

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I may start him over Ingram this weekend, even with Brees out and the Saints looking to run. He's that good.

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I may start him over Ingram this weekend, even with Brees out and the Saints looking to run. He's that good.

The Willie Snead thread is that way ---->.

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Yeah anybody that drafted him hit that jackpot but it's more of a 2016 thing. Arians isn't going to give him enough touches to be more than a borderline flex play. Ellington getting hurt again, which is a big possibility, would change everything. As it stands right now this could be his highest touch total of the year.

Edited by Milkman

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Yeah anybody that drafted him hit that jackpot but it's more of a 2016 thing. Arians isn't going to give him enough touches to be more than a borderline flex play. Ellington getting hurt again, which is a big possibility, would change everything. As it stands right now this could be his highest touch total of the year.

:lmao: WTF. You're in the wrong part of town man.

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This kid looks like Adrian Peterson to me without the pedigree.

I like the Forte comparison....with better top end speed

Agree he looks like Forte out there. Tall, runs upright in that gliding fashion. And yes looks like he has more explosion.

I haven't seen enough to compare him physically to Fred Taylor who was a mack truck coming downhill with speed. Man I loved watching that guy.

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Yeah anybody that drafted him hit that jackpot but it's more of a 2016 thing. Arians isn't going to give him enough touches to be more than a borderline flex play. Ellington getting hurt again, which is a big possibility, would change everything. As it stands right now this could be his highest touch total of the year.

This is definitely his audition but I personally believe that if he gives a solid performance (with the ball in his hands and, most importantly, in his protections) then Arians will continue to increase his PT as the season progresses regardless of Ellington's status. CJ is the one who will lose carries if D.Johnson keeps getting better.

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This kid looks like Adrian Peterson to me without the pedigree.

I like the Forte comparison....with better top end speed

Agree he looks like Forte out there. Tall, runs upright in that gliding fashion. And yes looks like he has more explosion.

I haven't seen enough to compare him physically to Fred Taylor who was a mack truck coming downhill with speed. Man I loved watching that guy.

And in the passing game, Forte can be like another WR out there. We've seen that same potential with DJ.

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Yeah anybody that drafted him hit that jackpot but it's more of a 2016 thing. Arians isn't going to give him enough touches to be more than a borderline flex play. Ellington getting hurt again, which is a big possibility, would change everything. As it stands right now this could be his highest touch total of the year.

This is definitely his audition but I personally believe that if he gives a solid performance (with the ball in his hands and, most importantly, in his protections) then Arians will continue to increase his PT as the season progresses regardless of Ellington's status. CJ is the one who will lose carries if D.Johnson keeps getting better.

Yeah I don't trust Arians as much as you do. 2013 Mendenhall is rough because he just kept force feeding him even though he wasn't effective. If Ellington is effective at all then they at best split. Meh

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The problem is the guy barely had any snaps, remove his special team touchdowns and it's a very limited opportunity

Why in the world would you do that?

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Yeah anybody that drafted him hit that jackpot but it's more of a 2016 thing. Arians isn't going to give him enough touches to be more than a borderline flex play. Ellington getting hurt again, which is a big possibility, would change everything. As it stands right now this could be his highest touch total of the year.

This is definitely his audition but I personally believe that if he gives a solid performance (with the ball in his hands and, most importantly, in his protections) then Arians will continue to increase his PT as the season progresses regardless of Ellington's status. CJ is the one who will lose carries if D.Johnson keeps getting better.

Yeah I don't trust Arians as much as you do. 2013 Mendenhall is rough because he just kept force feeding him even though he wasn't effective. If Ellington is effective at all then they at best split. Meh

I don't think Ellington is D.Johnson. While many consider Arians to be stubborn, the entirety of his coaching history demonstrates that he goes with his best runner, 2013 is the outlier. He hasn't had many rookie RBs and when he had Mendenhall as a rookie he got hurt in week 4.

I think it is possible that in 2013 Arians, just like the entirety of the fantasy football community, believed that Ellington (beyond being a rookie who needed to learn the role) didn't have the size of physicality to handle the feature back roll so he kept pummeling Mendenhall to keep Ellington fresh/alive. He changed his tune in 2014 and got burned for it. I just don't think 2013 is the only benchmark by which we should judge Arians coaching philosophy.

And, I think it is obvious, I am a big believer that most coaches, wisely, prefer the reliable veteran over the unpredictable rookie but that certainly isn't always the case (Matt Jones) and doesn't make it a mortal lock that they will do so to the detriment of the team. Particularly if the rookie continues to excel with his opportunities (particularly in protections).

I don't see D.Johnson being a 20+ guy this week (maybe not even this season) but, even with a healthy Ellington, I could easily see him with a consistent 13 opportunities/game (maybe even as high as 18 depending on too many variables to discuss) by the latter third of the season. IMO it is Chris Johnson whose role will diminish not Ellington or D.Johnson. And if Ellington goes down again...?

Edited by Chaka

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Yeah anybody that drafted him hit that jackpot but it's more of a 2016 thing. Arians isn't going to give him enough touches to be more than a borderline flex play. Ellington getting hurt again, which is a big possibility, would change everything. As it stands right now this could be his highest touch total of the year.

:lmao: WTF. You're in the wrong part of town man.

LOL I was on the this train before you knew who David Johnson was.

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Yeah anybody that drafted him hit that jackpot but it's more of a 2016 thing. Arians isn't going to give him enough touches to be more than a borderline flex play. Ellington getting hurt again, which is a big possibility, would change everything. As it stands right now this could be his highest touch total of the year.

This is definitely his audition but I personally believe that if he gives a solid performance (with the ball in his hands and, most importantly, in his protections) then Arians will continue to increase his PT as the season progresses regardless of Ellington's status. CJ is the one who will lose carries if D.Johnson keeps getting better.

Yeah I don't trust Arians as much as you do. 2013 Mendenhall is rough because he just kept force feeding him even though he wasn't effective. If Ellington is effective at all then they at best split. Meh

I don't think Ellington is D.Johnson. While many consider Arians to be stubborn, the entirety of his coaching history demonstrates that he goes with his best runner, 2013 is the outlier. He hasn't had many rookie RBs and when he had Mendenhall as a rookie he got hurt in week 4.

I think it is possible that in 2013 Arians, just like the entirety of the fantasy football community, believed that Ellington (beyond being a rookie who needed to learn the role) didn't have the size of physicality to handle the feature back roll so he kept pummeling Mendenhall to keep Ellington fresh/alive. He changed his tune in 2014 and got burned for it. I just don't think 2013 is the only benchmark by which we should judge Arians coaching philosophy.

And, I think it is obvious, I am a big believer that most coaches, wisely, prefer the reliable veteran over the unpredictable rookie but that certainly isn't always the case (Matt Jones) and doesn't make it a mortal lock that they will do so to the detriment of the team. Particularly if the rookie continues to excel with his opportunities (particularly in protections).

I don't see D.Johnson being a 20+ guy this week (maybe not even this season) but, even with a healthy Ellington, I could easily see him with a consistent 13 opportunities/game (maybe even as high as 18 depending on too many variables to discuss) by the latter third of the season. IMO it is Chris Johnson whose role will diminish not Ellington or D.Johnson. And if Ellington goes down again...?

It is a different situation. I'll give you that. DJ is the superior RB in all aspects imo. To me it depends how Arians is going to split the work.

Is he going to bring Ellington in on all the 3rd work or obvious passing downs? This would be bad for DJ owners. Kills his ceiling.

Or, if DJ ouplays everybody, is he going to eventually give DJ the lion share of some kind of series split. 2 series to every 1 one of Ellington or even 3/1 maybe. This would make DJ a solid RB2 with a high ceiling every week.

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No doubt CJ20Carries is the one who will be impacted most upon Ellington's return. I'm not sure he'd be getting ANY carries if Ellington hadn't gotten hurt. It seems like Arizona would be just fine with a DJ / Ellington rotation.

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It is a different situation. I'll give you that. DJ is the superior RB in all aspects imo. To me it depends how Arians is going to split the work.

Is he going to bring Ellington in on all the 3rd work or obvious passing downs? This would be bad for DJ owners. Kills his ceiling.

Or, if DJ ouplays everybody, is he going to eventually give DJ the lion share of some kind of series split. 2 series to every 1 one of Ellington or even 3/1 maybe. This would make DJ a solid RB2 with a high ceiling every week.

It's a tough one to predict. I think Ellington holds down the starter label for every game he is available and I don't see him getting shifted to exclusively a passing downs specialist (Arians doesn't like being predictable in his play calling) but if D.Johnson performs up to our hopes I could see it being a pretty even split between the two by the last third of the season (with CJ getting some touches sprinkled in).

I don't however see any situation, beyond injuries to both Ellington and CJ, where D.Johnson commands a 60% or greater share of the RB opportunities. So I think, even in the best case, his ceiling is capped...unless he keeps scoring 3 TDs for every 5 touches.

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Then again with D.Johnson being the Cardinals primary kick returner, and having excelled in that role early, could also significantly reduce his opportunities on offense as well. Hard to take a guy who can go 108 yards out of that role.

Edited by Chaka

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It is a different situation. I'll give you that. DJ is the superior RB in all aspects imo. To me it depends how Arians is going to split the work.

Is he going to bring Ellington in on all the 3rd work or obvious passing downs? This would be bad for DJ owners. Kills his ceiling.

Or, if DJ ouplays everybody, is he going to eventually give DJ the lion share of some kind of series split. 2 series to every 1 one of Ellington or even 3/1 maybe. This would make DJ a solid RB2 with a high ceiling every week.

It's a tough one to predict. I think Ellington holds down the starter label for every game he is available and I don't see him getting shifted to exclusively a passing downs specialist (Arians doesn't like being predictable in his play calling) but if D.Johnson performs up to our hopes I could see it being a pretty even split between the two by the last third of the season (with CJ getting some touches sprinkled in).

I don't however see any situation, beyond injuries to both Ellington and CJ, where D.Johnson commands a 60% or greater share of the RB opportunities. So I think, even in the best case, his ceiling is capped...unless he keeps scoring 3 TDs for every 5 touches.

I think we're kind of saying the same thing then. He's not really startable this year unless Ellington goes down. I like his long term outlook and feel he's better than Ellington in everyway buuuuuttttt even if he out plays Ellington there won't be more than a 50/50 split which is ridiculous but look whos the coach. lololol

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Let's be real here, nobody on this board has any clue whatsoever what his role will be in a few weeks.

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The problem is the guy barely had any snaps, remove his special team touchdowns and it's a very limited opportunity

Why in the world would you do that?

One reason would be that there are still plenty of older leagues with scoring systems that award those to the d/st unit rather than the individual position player...

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Just curious, what do you guys think on the number of touches today? Would 12 be a fair number?

I think that is fair however we don't know what Arizona head coach Bruce Arians thinks or how the game will go but I do think a dozen touches is a fair number.

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I am expecting 8-12 and debating playing him over Gio.

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The problem is the guy barely had any snaps, remove his special team touchdowns and it's a very limited opportunity

Why in the world would you do that?

One reason would be that there are still plenty of older leagues with scoring systems that award those to the d/st unit rather than the individual position player...

That, and special teams touchdowns are kind of rare. If you want to bank on that from game to game, go right ahead.

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The problem is the guy barely had any snaps, remove his special team touchdowns and it's a very limited opportunity

Why in the world would you do that?

One reason would be that there are still plenty of older leagues with scoring systems that award those to the d/st unit rather than the individual position player...

That, and special teams touchdowns are kind of rare. If you want to bank on that from game to game, go right ahead.

The assumption that anyone would be banking on return TDs is more ridiculous than you discounting the opportunity that those return TDs are going to afford him going forward.

Take away his return TDs and you miss the production and talent displayed... which will earn more touches in the games ahead.

Edited by matuski

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That's great but I'm not talking about going forward as in games from now, I'm talking about now. I have no doubt he will take over eventually, but if you end up with 3 points in one of the next couple of games, don't be outraged.

Edited by HoTnickZ

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That's great but I'm not talking about going forward as in games from now, I'm talking about now. I have no doubt he will take over eventually, but if you end up with 3 points in one of the next couple of games, don't be outraged.

Absolutely, really low floor.

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Sounds like Ellington will not play today. I've got to start DJ so hopefully we get to see a lot of him.

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Yeah I think he's startable in return leagues but good chance you have better options. He looks really good though and as long as he doesn't get in Arians doghouse next year should be good.

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The niners look a little schizo too. One of those teams that could get rolled by 30 at home vs Detroit then turn around and shut out the Falsons on the road.

I think Arizona is clearly the better team but this could be a tight, low scoring game.

Still rolling with David Johnson this week but mostly because I my other options aren't too strong IMO.

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It'll be interesting to see if the Cardinals are up at the end, who gets clock-killing duties.

Edited by zamboni
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It'll be interesting to see if the Cardinals are up at the end, who gets clock-killing duties.

I'd bet the veteran gets the call in this spot.

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It'll be interesting to see if the Cardinals are up at the end, who gets clock-killing duties.

It will be interesting...

Scenarios abound.

1) D Johnson keeps learning and gets 6-8 carries, catches 2-3 balls.

2) D Johnson keeps increasing his playing time and touches, yet plays a back up role.

3) D Johnson will eventually become Arizona's #1 RB this year or next.

4) D Johnson is too good to keep off the field and takes over the lead back role.

5) D Johnson cannot handle the starting role for now and keeps learning the system.

6) D Johnson has an injury...please no!

If one only knew...

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