I didnt look it up, simply because there were so few games when both were healthy that we dont have enough data, imo.
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Dynasty and Redraft: David Johnson Saints (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Biabreakable
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Chaka
Footballguy
Or not. The Rams are not very good and they have nothing to protect Gurley. With that supporting cast it will take him being the next Adrian Peterson to perform to his draft position.
That is a lofty goal. After his torrid start defenses started focusing on him and he tailed off significantly. Still a baller but he can only do so much by himself.
flapgreen
Footballguy
I'll probably change my mind on the two a lot as well but end up on Gurley. Beast last year and the team will feed him like crazy. High volume talented back who looked great last year compared to a rb who is in a great situation but has some competition and not as proven. It's a tough choice
Chaka
Footballguy
Very possible Gurley outperforms but I am not sure how Gurley is more proven than DJ. 250 touches with 4.8 YPR & 9.0 YPR doesn't seem like a huge experience differential over 161 touches with 4.6 YPC & 12.7 YPR. Particularly when Gurley's output dropped considerably after his first four games. I am just very concerned that the Rams don't have anything other than Gurley for defenses to worry about and that will limit his production. He should be very high volume but I don't see him approaching the 4.8 & 9.0 he did last year. Until he gets help I see him as maybe closer to 4.3 & 7.5.
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Moonshine
Footballguy
I recently joined my brother's league (10 Team PPR Flex) who used the Olympic Golf tournament to determine draft order (randomly assigned golfers based on the projected Top 10 going into the tournament). Obviously, I was chomping at the bit to get one of Brown/Jones/ODB, but at the very least I was hoping to land in the middle of the pack with a chance to grab DJ. I ended up getting assigned Patrick Reed and landed the last spot in the draft, womp womp.
While there's still immense talent to be had in the back half of the first round, and there's something to be said about letting the draft come to you, it's the Cardinals inclination to use him in the slot at times that has me salivating over DJ and hoping for a pick in the top 6 or so. I'm certain CJ/AE will take carries away from DJ here and there, but that doesn't necessarily preclude him from seeing the field during those same series. I can't think of many other times a "bell-cow" back is given this kind of opportunity, and makes me think he's well worth the risk, even with the limited resume.
The Gurley/DJ argument is close for me, but in PPR I give the nod to DJ, and in standard it goes to Gurley. Easily the only two RBs I'd consider in the first round in either set-up at this point.
While there's still immense talent to be had in the back half of the first round, and there's something to be said about letting the draft come to you, it's the Cardinals inclination to use him in the slot at times that has me salivating over DJ and hoping for a pick in the top 6 or so. I'm certain CJ/AE will take carries away from DJ here and there, but that doesn't necessarily preclude him from seeing the field during those same series. I can't think of many other times a "bell-cow" back is given this kind of opportunity, and makes me think he's well worth the risk, even with the limited resume.
The Gurley/DJ argument is close for me, but in PPR I give the nod to DJ, and in standard it goes to Gurley. Easily the only two RBs I'd consider in the first round in either set-up at this point.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Good point. I think it is because Gurley was the lead back for 12 weeks where DJ was for 5 ( plus the 2 playoff games that some might not factor).I am concerned about the Rams' poor offense impacting Gurley, but it didn't last year. Not even after the first 4 weeks. Here are the season long projections for Gurley based on his first 4 games as a starter and last 8 games as a starter:
First 4: 2500 total yards and 12 TDs. Obviously unsustainable pace.
Last 8 games: 1300 yards and 14 TDs. That is a sustainable pace for a RB.
Gurley's yardage dropped significantly, but not in a way hat made him a less than great RB1. It had to come down from the insane level it was at.
creepythinman
Footballguy
Debating DJ/Gurley at the #2 draft spot for awhile now. If Gurley had a better offense and he caught more, it wouldn't be a question. If DJ gets 80% of the touches, it wouldn't be a question.
But for me it comes down to this. I'm confident of my ability to make my league playoffs regardless of who I choose but in Week 15, when I'm fighting to get into the finals, I want to roll with DJ in a shootout at home vs. the New Orleans rather than Gurley on the road at Seattle when he just doesn't catch enough for any upside.
But for me it comes down to this. I'm confident of my ability to make my league playoffs regardless of who I choose but in Week 15, when I'm fighting to get into the finals, I want to roll with DJ in a shootout at home vs. the New Orleans rather than Gurley on the road at Seattle when he just doesn't catch enough for any upside.
TripItUp
Footballguy
For me it comes down to who has the upside...Gurley is in a vastly inferior offense and isn't as much of a receiving threat.
DJ's ceiling is definitely higher which is why he is my #1 RB in most formats.
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Todem
Footballguy
Yeah that is the big problem with forecasting RB's in today's NFL.
If the Cards have 3 healthy guys in Johnson, Ellington and C.Johnson....why would they run one guy into the ground if all three are giving the team what it needs. And quite frankly I think if all 3 are healthy, they will employ a really diverse RBBC. Ellington when healthy is highly explosive too. A heck of a 3rd down guy. Chris is really depth at this point. But he will get some work too IMO.
D Johnson is a stud. We all know that. And he may be one of the best RB's to do the most with limited touches (much like Lamar Millers last 2 seasons in Miami). But expecting 22-25 touches a game....at top 3 prices and massive auction prices.....huge risk with Bruce running the show. In an auction league it can break you especially.
Tough call man. I love him too. But the premium is high for a guy with 2 other backs who can contribute and keep everyone fresh. Arians does not care about our fantasy teams.
Fireinside
Footballguy
One thing I might add is that Arians talked a lot about putting David Johnson and Ellington on the field same time.
I don't believe they will use it a lot, but there's a chance it will happen.
creepythinman
Footballguy
DJ might get 1000 yards receiving...he's that good of a receiver.
Plus, Arians isn't known for RBBC. DJ is locked in.
Chaka
Footballguy
Why do people not trust Arians to do what he said he is going to do?
In Cleveland James Jackson and William Green were getting 20 touches even though they weren't performing.
In Pittsburgh Willie Parker (then Mewelde Moore when FWP got hurt) and Mendenhall both were getting 20 touches during Arians time there.
In Indy Vick Ballard started getting 18 touches when he took over in week 6 and Donald Brown was getting 15 before getting hurt.
It seems that when Arians has a back, not even a great one (not even a very good one), he sticks with that guy. CJ and AE will get some touches but the lions share of the RB touches will funnel through DJ. Nothing in Arians coaching history suggests otherwise.
In Cleveland James Jackson and William Green were getting 20 touches even though they weren't performing.
In Pittsburgh Willie Parker (then Mewelde Moore when FWP got hurt) and Mendenhall both were getting 20 touches during Arians time there.
In Indy Vick Ballard started getting 18 touches when he took over in week 6 and Donald Brown was getting 15 before getting hurt.
It seems that when Arians has a back, not even a great one (not even a very good one), he sticks with that guy. CJ and AE will get some touches but the lions share of the RB touches will funnel through DJ. Nothing in Arians coaching history suggests otherwise.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
That would be quite an accomplishment since the Cardinals only completed 60 passes to their RBs last year. 60 was 4th fewest in the NFL. To put it into context, five teams completed double that number of passes to their RBs.
Milkman
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
I just think the trend in the NFL is not to use one guy all the time anymore. But I am of the thinking when you have a Gurley, David Johnson, Leveon Bell, ADP you should. I love workhorse backs. I think teams are more effective when they have a clear cut guy they trust. But RBBC seems to be a growing trend.
But your right, his past does not suggest he will not give DJ a big work load. Kid has superstar written all over him.
creepythinman
Footballguy
That it would.
But looking DJ's last 6 games including the playoffs, he averaged 7.2 targets/game. I think Bruce Arians and Carson Palmer know just how much of a weapon DJ is catching the ball, so I'm not worried about his usage in the passing game.
steelers1080
Footballguy
I keep hearing from Analysts about how DJ is unproven and then seconds later about how Gurley is a lock. 90 carries isn't that much of a difference, and they're both coming off rookie seasons. I feel like this is just using rhetoric to support their argument.
My current stance is that both backs will be awesome and that you'll do well with either one. No one knows for sure who will be better but I wouldn't be shocked if they went Gurley 1/DJ 2 or DJ 1/Gurley 2.
Also, the word out of camp is that DJ looks completely unstoppable.
My current stance is that both backs will be awesome and that you'll do well with either one. No one knows for sure who will be better but I wouldn't be shocked if they went Gurley 1/DJ 2 or DJ 1/Gurley 2.
Also, the word out of camp is that DJ looks completely unstoppable.
Workload seems to be the constant concern here, for DJ. Lets look at the other potential #1 RB's, especially those slated for "Bellcow" status...
Gurley - well established, all world talent, but the offense is just bad. As has been mentioned, no matter how many touches Gurley is slated for, if they can't sustain drives, and score points, it will negatively impact him.
Elliot - Rookie, while the industry is excited by the possibility of him accumulating 350 touches, behind that monster OL... we have no track record to look at. Whether you want to admit it or not, it's a gamble. While some feel like this is can't miss, I can immediately see a potential scenario that tosses a wet blanket on him. Suppose, like many rookie backs, he struggles in pass pro. Dallas know's they aren't winning anything without Romo, and they have a couple viable passing down backs on the roster.
AD - He's 31, and has never been much of a pass catcher.
Miller - Miami seemed to be willing to put the security guard behind Tannehill in order to keep Miller off the field. While I believe in Miller's talent, there are certainly red flags that you can point to that may indicate he isn't cut out for bellcow status.
Bell - 4 game suspension looming, and missed time to injuries in 2 of 3 seasons so far.
Charles - coming off of his second ACL surgery, and his backups displayed they can hold down the fort last year.
Freeman - Second half fade, combined with Coleman, point to a reduced workload.
Ingram - Injury history, and team has a history of RBBC
and on, and on, and on....
Do I buy all of those risks? No, but they all deserve some consideration. The point is, every one of the top RB's has something about them that could cause you concern for workload, or performance. I don't think DJ's risks are any more, or less, pronounced than many of those I just listed. Someone has to be the top RB taken however, and DJ is a guy coming off of an extremely strong finish to the previous season, in a fantastic offense, and seems to pass the eye test. All of the conversation coming out of Arizona has been positive, in regards to his performance thus far in camp, and pre-season. If I'm taking the first RB off the board in a draft this year, I figure DJ has as good a shot as anyone of returning value on that pick.
Gurley - well established, all world talent, but the offense is just bad. As has been mentioned, no matter how many touches Gurley is slated for, if they can't sustain drives, and score points, it will negatively impact him.
Elliot - Rookie, while the industry is excited by the possibility of him accumulating 350 touches, behind that monster OL... we have no track record to look at. Whether you want to admit it or not, it's a gamble. While some feel like this is can't miss, I can immediately see a potential scenario that tosses a wet blanket on him. Suppose, like many rookie backs, he struggles in pass pro. Dallas know's they aren't winning anything without Romo, and they have a couple viable passing down backs on the roster.
AD - He's 31, and has never been much of a pass catcher.
Miller - Miami seemed to be willing to put the security guard behind Tannehill in order to keep Miller off the field. While I believe in Miller's talent, there are certainly red flags that you can point to that may indicate he isn't cut out for bellcow status.
Bell - 4 game suspension looming, and missed time to injuries in 2 of 3 seasons so far.
Charles - coming off of his second ACL surgery, and his backups displayed they can hold down the fort last year.
Freeman - Second half fade, combined with Coleman, point to a reduced workload.
Ingram - Injury history, and team has a history of RBBC
and on, and on, and on....
Do I buy all of those risks? No, but they all deserve some consideration. The point is, every one of the top RB's has something about them that could cause you concern for workload, or performance. I don't think DJ's risks are any more, or less, pronounced than many of those I just listed. Someone has to be the top RB taken however, and DJ is a guy coming off of an extremely strong finish to the previous season, in a fantastic offense, and seems to pass the eye test. All of the conversation coming out of Arizona has been positive, in regards to his performance thus far in camp, and pre-season. If I'm taking the first RB off the board in a draft this year, I figure DJ has as good a shot as anyone of returning value on that pick.
Milkman
Footballguy
Its unfortunate that you don't own David Johnson but this is the David Johnson thread. So I might post quotes I hear/read from time to time about him here. Considering your obvious frustration level now I would probably limit your involvement in this thread during the season. It's only going to get worse while David is establishing himself as the premiere RB in PPR leagues moving forward. Cheers!
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flapgreen
Footballguy
No red flags on Miller. Miami was coached by idiots. Miller is a great rb who's now on a run heavy team. I hope I get him.
I don't have any concern about Miller myself. In fact, if I had to put a chip on one guy to be the RB1 in PPR this year, it would be him. I am just trying to be fair and admit that while I believe, I understand why some might have some trepidation.
VaTerp
Footballguy
Yes, lots to like about Miller in Houston but I agree with the overall premise of Mene's post. I used to do months of extensive research analyzing each situation ad nauseam. The last couple of years as I get older and busier with other priorities I use tools like DD, comb these boards a bit, and rely more on who I like from a talent and opportunity perspective . And really who I like to watch since I still get the Ticket and devote a lot of time to watching my FF players. That is still the biggest part of the fun for me in this hobby. Point being a worry less about all of the details of each situation- they will change in some way throughout the season anyway-- and target guys I like. And I've continued success at this game with that modified approach.
I owned DJ in both of my redraft leagues last year. He has about as good a combination of talent and opportunity as any RB out there for this year. And he and the Cardinals offense put up points and are fun to watch. There are VERY VERY few sure things at the position in FF these days. There are some concerns but there is a moderate to high degree of concern for every single RB out there.
There is a strong case for DJ as the first RB off the board and the highest auction value in redrafts this year. If not for Bell's suspension I would put him at #1 but he IS suspended and has injury history concerns as well. Arguments for others as well but DJ is at the top of the RB board. We'll see how it plays out for redrafts.
I owned DJ in both of my redraft leagues last year. He has about as good a combination of talent and opportunity as any RB out there for this year. And he and the Cardinals offense put up points and are fun to watch. There are VERY VERY few sure things at the position in FF these days. There are some concerns but there is a moderate to high degree of concern for every single RB out there.
There is a strong case for DJ as the first RB off the board and the highest auction value in redrafts this year. If not for Bell's suspension I would put him at #1 but he IS suspended and has injury history concerns as well. Arguments for others as well but DJ is at the top of the RB board. We'll see how it plays out for redrafts.
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mphtrilogy
Footballguy
steelers1080
Footballguy
As a DJ owner in dynasty, I'm going to wait until the end of the season to start patting myself on the back. The hype has grown and grown and grown, and I'm worried it's going to come tumbling down. He's got all the tools, let's wait until he performs for a whole season before comparing him to one of the best all time.
Team Smokin'
Footballguy
In a TD heavy league which RB scores the most TD's? Gurley, AP, DJ, Miller, or someone else? Perhaps the combo of Bell / Williams?
Milkman
Footballguy
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
You serious? Coaches do NOT want 3 and outs when trying to preserve a lead. They want to sustain drives while simultaneously killing clock. That means they want to get 1st downs.
Chaka
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
Anyone who considers a second year player equivalent to one of the greatest of all time is just being silly. If they believe it then they are delusional.
I consider Gurley more than DJ, to your first post.
I also didn't say he's there right now, but he has the talent and situation to be, at some point.
It's really easy to scoff and write people off. THAT's delusional.
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Chaka
Footballguy
Not writing anyone off. My posts in this thread have been clear on the fact that I think Gurley could outproduce DJ this season. But Walter? Have some patience people.
Milkman
Footballguy
He kind of got a late start in the NFL. He's got to be a huge dog to make the HOF but 2000 total yards, 70+ receptions, double digit TD'S is his ceiling the next 2-3 years and 2-3 years of top ten RB production in fantasy football is likely to happen barring injury.
Monster season coming up boys.
Monster season coming up boys.
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steelers1080
Footballguy
