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Dynasty and Redraft: David Johnson RB Houston Texans

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45 minutes ago, Choke said:

Over the last 4 seasons DJ is averaging 3.92 and Drake is averaging 4.66.

YPC is completely useless.  It contains zero context. Gus Edwards had a 5.2 YPC last year.  Kamara was only at 4.6. 

It proves itself useless as an RB stat when you look at things like:

Todd Gurley 2016: 3.2 YPC

Todd Gurley 2017: 4.7 YPC

Fournette 2018: 3.3 YPC

Fournette 2019: 4.9 YPC

YPC is noise. 

 

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36 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

YPC is completely useless.  It contains zero context. Gus Edwards had a 5.2 YPC last year.  Kamara was only at 4.6. 

It proves itself useless as an RB stat when you look at things like:

Todd Gurley 2016: 3.2 YPC

Todd Gurley 2017: 4.7 YPC

Fournette 2018: 3.3 YPC

Fournette 2019: 4.9 YPC

YPC is noise. 

 

Obviously not. The team around them affected those numbers. When rbs on the same team, in the same situation are more effective for a prolonged time it means they are playing better.

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4 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

Obviously not. The team around them affected those numbers. When rbs on the same team, in the same situation are more effective for a prolonged time it means they are playing better.

I disagree, because it's never the same situation. The 3rd down back always has a better YPC than the short yardage back. 

Even when RBs split drives, somebody ends up getting a better opportunity to gain yards due to factors outside their control.  The sample sizes aren't large enough for it to even out.  A long enough period of time is longer than 1 season. 

Edited by kittenmittens
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6 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

I disagree, because it's never the same situation. The 3rd down back always has a better YPC than the short yardage back. 

Even when RBs split drives, somebody ends up getting a better opportunity to gain yards due to factors outside their control.  The sample sizes aren't large enough for it to even out.  A long enough period of time is longer than 1 season. 

I never trust when a guy comes to a new team or gets a shot for the first time and balls out for that one game.   Too hard to duplicate that adrenaline.   

How was Chase doing last week before he got hurt?  Just sayin

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DJ played half of a game in 2017 and was arguably on one of the worst/anemic nfl offenses in the past 10-20 years in 2018, but still managed to end up a top 10 RB somehow. I’ll admit it looks like he’s a lost a bit of pep to his step, I recall his rookie season (2015) he was returning kickoffs and was getting clocked at ridiculous speeds, he was known for his speed / size combo. 
 
Dudes still damn good, big, and strong. I’ve seen him make Several inane catches this year that I doubt many other RBs could pull off. He will lead this backfield when heathy. 

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YPC is far from all encompassing and perfect, as any stat is.  But it's far more useful than is being asserted here and is reasonably predictive for RBs, especially when applying context to it.  Noise?  That's ridiculous.

Edited by FreeBaGeL

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1 hour ago, travdogg said:

I'm going to keep saying don't worry. This isn't about to become a 3-man RBBC. David Johnson is their workhorse, Drake and Edmonds each had 1 great game. Johnson is the guy defenses fear. He's the unstoppable mismatch in the passing game, and he's a good enough runner to get the most carries. 

I've been saying that while the schedule had helped, the Cardinals offense is looking better because Kingsbury is getting more comfortable with playcalling, and Murray is getting more comfortable. This system is pretty good, and could be elite if Murray becomes as good as I think he can be. Any RB should be reasonably productive in it. That isn't to take anything away from Drake, Edmonds, or Johnson, they've all looked good, but as the old adage goes, if everyone looks good, maybe look elsewhere for the cause.

I look at these 3 RB's, and see 3 pretty equal rushers.  Johnson obviously crushes as a pass catcher, and while I think Edmonds might actually be the best short yardage runner, I'd be shocked if Johnson didn't get that job, based on his size, history, and just having your "best" player on the field in the most important situations.

When Johnson comes back(seemingly next week) I'd probably have him ranked around RB8 or so. Drake probably around RB30, and Edmonds not ranked at all, and he seems unlikely to be back for a couple more weeks anyway.

ETA: Its kind of funny to me, I was calling David Johnson overrated for years, but I feel like now that other people are on board, they have gone too far in the other direction.

Kenyan Drake was drafted in the 3rd round, despite the assumption that he was a complete zero as a runner, due solely to his receiving ability.  He is no slouch as a receiver himself.

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4 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Kenyan Drake was drafted in the 3rd round, despite the assumption that he was a complete zero as a runner, due solely to his receiving ability.  He is no slouch as a receiver himself.

Not calling him a slouch, just saying he's not even close to being in Johnson's league. Johnson is arguably the best pass catching RB in the NFL. 

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48 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

I disagree, because it's never the same situation. The 3rd down back always has a better YPC than the short yardage back. 

Even when RBs split drives, somebody ends up getting a better opportunity to gain yards due to factors outside their control.  The sample sizes aren't large enough for it to even out.  A long enough period of time is longer than 1 season. 

But Johnson is the 3rd down back. This isn’t Sproles vs Ingram here. Context matters but in this case I just don’t think Johnson is a good runner.

Edited by voiceofunreason
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Just now, voiceofunreason said:

But Johnson is the 3rd down back. This isn’t Sproles vs Ingram here. Context matters but in this case I just don’t think Johnson is a good runner.

Yes, thanks for bringing it back to Johnson.  Sorry I got a little carried away with my rant about YPC. 

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Curious what people think about Edmunds now?  How long he is out?  What role when he returns?  I have him and am about to waive him for Sammy Watkins.  Anyone think that is silly?

 

 

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In dynasty that's crazy. Re-draft I wouldn't want to rely much on either of them.

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5 hours ago, Jamesinaz said:

Curious what people think about Edmunds now?  How long he is out?  What role when he returns?  I have him and am about to waive him for Sammy Watkins.  Anyone think that is silly?

 

 

Edmunds has gone from league winner to scrap heap on the FA. How quick the tables turn. Perhaps if you have IR space or a deep bench. I don't think I would hold him. DJ will be back. Drake looked gr8. Edmunds? who's he again lol.

That all being said, Sammy Watkins is another one of those who teases us with a good game, an electrifying game now and then, but mostly it's then. He's good for about 15-20% of his time. One out of every 6-7 games will he produce double digits or some stat like that.

Anybody else? Dio Johnson?

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Should have mentioned I am in redraft.  I wonder how quickly Chase heals from this, and once back will they load him up or RBBC with all 3 guys making them all useless to me.  At least Watkins is a starter across from Hill.  Or maybe I take Breida who was weirdly waived.  Can't now.  Chase is locked until waiver day Tuesday.

 

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14 hours ago, Choke said:

Not for me it isn't. Its a solid indicator when both players have plenty of lead-back carries.

I would agree... if plenty means around 2000 :). 

Seriously, somebody studied how long it takes YPC to stablize and it was like 175 games.  I'll post it if I can find it again. 

I think Johnson is the clear starter again once healthy.  Edmonds was looking like the better runner so if he is in the mix I think Drake is the backup to both of those guys. 

 

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Quote

 

Cardinals' David Johnson: Full participant in practice

by RotoWire Staff
(16 mins ago) Johnson (ankle) practiced in full Wednesday, Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com reports.

Johnson looks back to full health after missing Arizona's last two games due to a lingering ankle issue. With Chase Edmonds (hamstring) not practicing to begin the week, Johnson and newcomer Kenyan Drake appear primed to serve as Arizona's top backfield options during Sunday's tilt against the Buccaneers. Drake coming off an explosive debut performance with the Cardinals, in which he accumulated 162 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, so it remains to be seen how the team will distribute touches at the running back position with Johnson back in the lineup.

 

 

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Mike Jurecki‏Verified account @mikejurecki

#AZCardinals #K2 On RB David Johnson practicing and his usage returning this week. They’ll have a nice 1/2 punch with DJ/Drake that will include some options both backs in the game at the same time possibly, and both are able to be involved in the passing game.

12:45 PM - 4 Nov 2019

------------------------------------

Kingsbury seems tentative in how he plans to use DJ...:oldunsure:

>>>> LINK to video of Kliff Kingsbury at PC saying he WON'T give DJ 40 carries, he mentions getting him back into game condition and isn't sure what he'll get from him till he sees him Sunday.   >>>>>  LINK

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26 minutes ago, Bracie Smathers said:

Kliff Kingsbury at PC saying he WON'T give DJ 40 carries

DJ has never gotten 40 carries, let alone touches, maybe 30 touches in the BA days.  He has only been inactive two weeks....I bet he gets 10-15 carries and 5+ targets....

Edited by ahartig

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I'm beginning to think Kliff Kingsbury  is sporting a bit of gamesmanship before these games.

 One week its "DJ will start", 2-3 plays later hes out.

Another week he seems to indicate Edmonds will play "some, but not a huge role".  Then he gets sizable roles and production, including the one monster game that coincided with the DJ smokescreen.

Then when Kenyan Drake appears, he said in the days leading up to it "he won't be on a full snap count/workload/ limit his touches" since he doesn't know the whole offense. You know how that ended, Drake went off that Thursday night.

 He may be channeling his inner Bill Belichick, or at least using a bit of smoke and mirrors to try and "throw the gameplan off" for opposing coaches.

I think since he basically came out and said "I'm definitely playing", you have to trot DJ out there.  I'm flexing him in, in one spot.

But we may have to start paying attention to what Kingsbury says, and not always take it as the whole truth.

 

 

 TZM

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4 hours ago, TZMarkie said:

I'm beginning to think Kliff Kingsbury  is sporting a bit of gamesmanship before these games.

 One week its "DJ will start", 2-3 plays later hes out.

Another week he seems to indicate Edmonds will play "some, but not a huge role".  Then he gets sizable roles and production, including the one monster game that coincided with the DJ smokescreen.

Then when Kenyan Drake appears, he said in the days leading up to it "he won't be on a full snap count/workload/ limit his touches" since he doesn't know the whole offense. You know how that ended, Drake went off that Thursday night.

 He may be channeling his inner Bill Belichick, or at least using a bit of smoke and mirrors to try and "throw the gameplan off" for opposing coaches.

I think since he basically came out and said "I'm definitely playing", you have to trot DJ out there.  I'm flexing him in, in one spot.

But we may have to start paying attention to what Kingsbury says, and not always take it as the whole truth.

 

 

 TZM

I'm not sure which is better, but you think way way way more than I do about fantasy football decisions.

To me David Johnson is an every week fantasy football starter unless an injury is interfering, in which case you have to check the daily reports on how he's doing. But other than that, he's in the lineup and there's no more thinking required.

 

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51 minutes ago, fatness said:

I'm not sure which is better, but you think way way way more than I do about fantasy football decisions.

To me David Johnson is an every week fantasy football starter unless an injury is interfering, in which case you have to check the daily reports on how he's doing. But other than that, he's in the lineup and there's no more thinking required.

 

 

 Thats not really my point.  Obviously DJ is a must start, I'm just saying there seems to be some "smokescreen" comments coming out most weeks.

(Not that the Patriots don't generally do the same)

 You can listen to many coaches, and basically take their word on whats going on.  I just don't think we can take everything Kingsbury says as gospel.

 

 TZM

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I'm sticking with what I said a week ago:

65% Johnson(not counting when he is split out wide)

35% Drake

Edmonds is an afterthought if both are healthy.

It fell under the radar, maybe because he was doing it unconventionally, but David Johnson was a top-5 RB before he got hurt. McCaffrey, Cook, Chubb, and Ekeler were the only RB's with more points when Johnson went down, and obviously Ekeler isn't in the same situation, and Chubb probably isn't either, I'm much more nervous about Kareem Hunt than Drake/Edmonds.

McCaffrey and Cook are better, but I'd still value Johnson in tier 2, with guys like Elliott and Barkley.

Throwing out when he barely played, Johnson averages 56.8 rushing yards, 5.8 catches, 63 receiving yards, and .8 TD's per game. Extrapolated over a 16 game stretch, that is:

908 rushing yards

92 catches for 1,008 yards

12 TD's.

Those are elite numbers(especially in PPR) and the offense has only improved as Kingsbury has gotten a better feel for NFL play calling. Johnson strikes me as a matchup proof RB1 whenever he's healthy. He's not as far off of his 2016 as people seem to think, and he's certainly in zero job security danger.

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15 hours ago, ahartig said:

DJ has never gotten 40 carries, let alone touches, maybe 30 touches in the BA days.  He has only been inactive two weeks....I bet he gets 10-15 carries and 5+ targets....

Sounds about right. DJ's carries this year (excluding the game we thought he was playing) have been 18, 7, 11, 11, 17, 12. Interestingly enough, the one game Edmonds had the backfield to himself (that one DJ subterfuge game), he had 27 carries. Largely speaking, Kingsbury doesn't have the RBs carry the ball that much, even in positive game scripts. 

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15 hours ago, ahartig said:

DJ has never gotten 40 carries, let alone touches, maybe 30 touches in the BA days.  He has only been inactive two weeks....I bet he gets 10-15 carries and 5+ targets....

Nobody in the league has gotten 40 carries so he began with a facetious statement to tamp down expectations.  

DJ carries this year by game, 18 (in Kyler Murray's first NFL start DJ got his high-carry total for the year), 7, 11, 11, 17, 12, 1 (injured during the last game).

I don't see him getting his 'normal' carry total ~11 so I'm less optimistic on how many carries he'll get with him coming off an injury and with Drake getting carries.

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Tampa's defense is tough on RBs (or perhaps more accurately, not tough at all on QBs/WRs/TEs).  I can't put DJ in the must start category right now.  Or for the next couple weeks either (@SF, bye).

I have him on my bench for Ingram and Coleman, FWIW.

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1 hour ago, Bracie Smathers said:

Nobody in the league has gotten 40 carries so he began with a facetious statement to tamp down expectations.  

DJ carries this year by game, 18 (in Kyler Murray's first NFL start DJ got his high-carry total for the year), 7, 11, 11, 17, 12, 1 (injured during the last game).

I don't see him getting his 'normal' carry total ~11 so I'm less optimistic on how many carries he'll get with him coming off an injury and with Drake getting carries.

I'm nitpicking, but its really more like 14 carries is his average per game. I don't think you should be counting a game he was essentially inactive for, and even the 7 carry game, he only played a quarter and some change. 

Between rushes and receptions, I'd be surprised if he had fewer than 15, and he's been around 20 all year.

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I'm benching him this week for D.Henry and Mack in standard scoring.  Therefore you should start DJ with confidence...

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1 hour ago, tkrull said:

I'm benching him this week for D.Henry and Mack in standard scoring.  Therefore you should start DJ with confidence...

In a standard I would too. But in a PPR I don’t know how you bench him, although I’m forced to pick between him,  Samuels or Bell. If Connor is out, I’m going Samuels. I think.....😐

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I'm not concerned about his health.  He got an extra week of rest... but was practicing fully on Monday this week?  If it was close they could have rested him longer. 

I'm not concerned at all about drake.  This isn't fantasy football.  Just because drake ran successfully on a few plays doesn't mean he's a stud and they have to get him on the field.  David Johnson is clearly their rb1 and the only reason they would take him off the field is to give him rest.

I'm not even worried about the Tampa run defense. The cards are built to run a million plays and get good matchups.  Bring in David Johnson, if they load the box, use him as a receiver.  If they bring in extra d backs, run it, get back to the line quick and run it again. The threat of Kyler running it to the outside, and Johnson being so multiple, is what makes this offense tick. 

They can't do the same things with drake yet.  They can run him, but they can't run their offense the way they'd like with him in the backfield. 

Last week the cardinals ran 50 plays.  The week before that, 49. The  week before that,  with Edmunds, they ran 61 plays.  The two weeks before that - with dj and Edmunds and also with a much softer schedule - they ran 71 and 66. That's the team they want to be.  Can't do that with drake. 

And he's by far their most capable scoring option.  

I like talented running backs who should get a lot of volume rushing and receiving and are their primary goal line options. It's harder for me to justify benching them than some of you I guess n

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David Johnson (ankle) is practicing in full for Week 10 against the Buccaneers.

Both Johnson and coach Kilff Kingsbury have confirmed he will return. Chase Edmonds (hamstring) remains sidelined, but trade addition Kenyan Drake is coming off a 162-yard game in his Cardinals debut. Both will be needed as pass catchers against the Bucs' pass-funnel defense, though Johnson will almost certainly take the lead on the ground. With the best touchdown odds, Johnson is a solid RB2 while Drake is an upside FLEX.

Nov 7, 2019, 4:53 PM ET

 

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Went into this bathroom at a convenience store and noticed a sign on the mirror which read: 'All employees must wash their hands, especially David.'

 

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Just now, GroveDiesel said:

Cards are foolish not to be getting DJ involved in the passing game in this game.

Seems like Kingsbury has Drake goggles now.

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Just now, bostonfred said:

Probably still hurting.  He didn't look like he was running full speed on one of the few attempts i saw

Then it’s inexcusable to have him in, especially after he aggravated it after 1 carry several weeks ago.

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1 minute ago, GroveDiesel said:

Then it’s inexcusable to have him in, especially after he aggravated it after 1 carry several weeks ago.

Everyone is hurt at this point in the season. I think inexcusable might be a little strong.

Drake has 4 rushes for 8 yards and 4 catches for 4 yards.  Not exactly lighting it up against the Bucs d. It's not that surprising that they want to have Johnson available if he says he can play.  

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Wanted to sit him. My other option was Jamaal Williams. Should have just sat him. Will probably cost me again.

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On 11/6/2019 at 6:10 PM, Bracie Smathers said:

Kingsbury seems tentative in how he plans to use DJ...:oldunsure:

 

On 11/7/2019 at 10:04 AM, Bracie Smathers said:

I don't see him getting his 'normal' carry total ~11 so I'm less optimistic on how many carries he'll get with him coming off an injury

Kingsbury was  giving a 'tell' in that interview from a few days ago.  

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Looks bad too, no burst. Seems so easy to use him in the passing game at least, he's not right or he's washed

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Very possible that Johnson isn't near healthy these days but for his skills (and lack thereof) I can only imagine Johnson's future as some pass-catching hybrid (h-back/slot/3rd down).
Questionable vision, no quickness, below average speed, breaks very few tackles despite being a weight room stud. 
I had hope for this offence to salvage him but I think we've all seen enough.  Sucks for a hard working overachiever and apparent good guy.

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Amazing. I’ve gotten 3 weeks of basically a zero in two leagues from the combo DJ and Chase.  And a lot of other folks have as well. 

And now with Drake in the mix not sure how anybody in the backfield can be started unless an injury providers clarity. 

Oh well. Point to the shirt is all I can say!

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Salary + roster bonus of 11.25 million next year and 9 million in 2021.  I'm guessing he won't be back.

Edit: at those salaries.

Edited by minister

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