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Dynasty and Redraft: David Johnson RB Houston Texans

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Texans acquired RB David Johnson, a 2020 second-round pick, and a 2021 fourth-rounder from the Cardinals in exchange for DeAndre Hopkins and a 2020 fourth-round selection.

Blockbuster. The Texans will also take on every last penny of Johnson's contract, which includes $10.2 million fully guaranteed in 2020. Houston can save $9 million against the cap by outright releasing Johnson the following year. More to the point, Houston's offense now heads into the new league year with Will Fuller, Kenny Stills, Keke Coutee, and warm bodies available in three-wide sets while both Duke and David Johnson shore up their backfield. The declining 28-year-old was undoubtedly slowed by injuries last year, limping to an underwhelming 3.7 yards per carry on 94 attempts, but he'll at the very least have an every-down shot at rejuvenation given coach/GM/Thanos Bill O'Brien's stubborn tendencies. The hits just keep on coming for Deshaun Watson, who's tasked with even more hills to climb in order to succeed next season.

 

Edited by The Frankman

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5 hours ago, zamboni said:

Probably the best situation DJ could have gone to. If he's close to the same guy he was a few years ago, he could bounce back in a big way.   

I think its more likely he's the 2nd best RB on his team with D.Johnson on his nameplate.

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They eatin'  that contract for 1 ugly year and then cutting him.

All that cap room will go to Watson in 2021.

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Plenty of opportunity but a terrible fit, Texans don’t throw to their existing stud receiving RB and DJ was always a better receiver than runner anyway. Maybe they plan to split DJ out wide full time and take Hopkins spot?

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2 hours ago, Buckna said:

Plenty of opportunity but a terrible fit, Texans don’t throw to their existing stud receiving RB and DJ was always a better receiver than runner anyway. Maybe they plan to split DJ out wide full time and take Hopkins spot?

I was going to say the same thing.  He can play RB and also play out of the slot.

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12 hours ago, zed2283 said:

I was going to say the same thing.  He can play RB and also play out of the slot.

That's the only thing I can think of. They plan on running multiple RB sets with the other DJ or splitting one or both out wide on a regular basis. IMO, they don't have a true regular 1st & 2nd down RB on the roster with Hyde gone as I don't think they can use DJ with his injuries like they did Miller or Hyde. Those guys were more often used as 2 down bangers.

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in the beginning of the season last year ...DJ showed solid pass catching ability... He had a sick catch for a TD thrown over his shoulder... looked like a WR

He's gonna bounce back hard

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John Daigle@notJDaigle

Even if David Johnson’s best days are behind him, his opportunity is invaluable as the #Texans have the most unaccounted for carries (252) from last season following day one of ‘free agency.’ Can view the updated list here:

By the Numbers: 2020 Unaccounted For Carries - Fantasy Columns

John Daigle tracks unaccounted for carries for every team throughout the offseason.

rotoworld.com

--------------------------------------------------------

2020 UNACCOUNTED FOR CARRIES

Quote

Below is a list of all 32 NFL teams’ unaccounted for carries, percentage of carries, and carries inside the five-yard line ahead of the 2020 regular season. As players are re-signed, this chart will be updated to reflect vacant opportunity on the ground for every team. 

Go to link for the chart.  📈

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16 hours ago, Faust said:

David Johnson's numbers disappoint in our 2020 fantasy football projections

PFF predicts DJ's numbers for 2020.  Carlos Hyde numbers from last year with the Texans next to DJ's predicted 2020 numbers

  • Rushing attempts 190 - Last year Carlos Hyde had 245 (Most in his 7 year career)
  • Rushing yards 673 - Last year CH 1,070 (Most in his career)
  • Rushing TDs 7 - Last year CH 6 (2nd most of his career)
  • Receiving targets 40 - Last year CH 16
  • Receptions 31 - Last year CH 10
  • Receiving yards 254 - Last year CH 42
  • Receiving TDs 1 - Last year CH - 0

Hyde 245 carries to DJs 190.  A decrease of 60 carries.  2019 Texans 434 team carries, PFF 2020 projection 432, decrease -2.  Where'd they go?  Duke?  Nope.

2019 Duke Johnson -  Rush Att. 83 - Rush Yds. 410 - Rush TD 2 - Rec. Targ. 62 - Rec. 44 - Rec Yds. 410 (Not a typo had equal rush/rec yds) - Rec. TD 3

2020 PFF Duke Johnson projection - 66 Rush Att. - 291 Rush Yds. - 1 Rush TD - 59  Rec. Targ. - 47 Rec. - 369 Rec. Yds. - 2 Rec. TDs

Duke loses 17 rushing attempts but his receiving stats remain basically the same.  Team attempts remain same but both DJ and Duke lose carries.  Where'd they go?

Deshaun Watson 2019 Rush Att. 82 - Rush Yds. 413 - Rush TD 7

Deshaun Watson PFF 2020 projections 132 Rush Att. - 614 yards - 6 Rush TDs

So a decrease in carries from Hyde to DJ with Duke also taking a hit on rush attempts but QB Desaun Watson getting a massive increase of 50 carries.  It should be noted that Desaun Watson has never had 100 carries in his career so they are projecting a career high number of carries.   Why?  He lost his best receiving target in WR DeAndre Hopkins so lets look at the numbers he left on the table.

2019 DeAndre Hopkins - 150 targets -  104 Rec. - 1,165 yards - 7 TDs

2020 PFF projection 495 targets to Texan offense/Last yr. 534 = -39  

A couple of things to note on David Johnson and BOB against the PFF projections and what to expect.

Clay: 50 things I learned while doing 2020 fantasy football projections

Quote

Speaking of O'Brien, he's been an OC or head coach for seven seasons and none of his offenses have eclipsed an 18% target share to running backs (15% average). The loss of Hopkins combined with the backfield duo of David Johnson and Duke Johnson figures to lead to a career-high in the category, but we shouldn't expect either to be featured in the pass game.

The 'general' feeling is BOB doesn't use his RBs but last year he had Hopkins and Carlos Hyde was his number one RB and Hyde was worthless as a receiver.

SOTT Mailbag: How does David Johnson fit with the Texans?

Quote

 

...last season when Hyde was on the field, 16 passing targets in 526 offensive snaps. With Hyde on the field, it made the running back position a non-factor in the passing game, and they felt Johnson brings them two running backs that make the defense defend every offensive player on the field.

Last season, Johnson lined up in the slot for 67 snaps and during his All-Pro season in 2016 Johnson not only lined up in the backfield but he was able to line up in the slot (76 snaps) and out wide (121 snaps). His ability to move in the formation only expands the Texans offense with him on the field making the defense match up players snap to snap. 

 

I'm not buying Desuan Watson gaining 50 carries but I am buying DJ making the RB a fixture in the passing game.

Last year DJ looked like he lost explosion and appeared 'to me' that he wasn't hitting the hole fast enough.  He looked fine when they lined him up outside.

I think PFF's projection is low on the number of carries and that DJ will see higher targets due to the loss of Hopkins.  

Last year the projection was that Duke would take over but he continued to disappoint because no coaching staff gives him carries.  

I don't see DJ getting massive numbers but I see him with 'decent' stats.  How I see David Johnson projected numbers for 2020

  • 210 carries (which would put him at #20 in 2019)
  • 800 yards (22 in 2019)
  • 7 Rush TDs (tied with six RBs for 14th so basically around 21st)
  • 55 targets  (120th in the league overall but 19th of RBs)
  • 37 receptions (113th in the league but 21st of RBs)
  • 370 receiving yards (119th overall but 16th of RBs)
  • 3 receiving TDs (13th of RBs and one less than he had last year)

1,170 combined yards with 10 combined TDs which would make him a solid #2 RB.  DJ averaged over 10 yards per reception last year and has a career average of 10.7 so I don't feel the 370 receiving yards are out of whack especially with the loss of Hopkins and DJ's ability to line up outside.  He just has to stay 'reasonably' healthy to reach these numbers IMHO.

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Great reasoning, @Bracie Smathers -- really like the quant approach you took.

While I buy the fact that DJ has the opportunity for those stats, my problem is around the probability of whether he can do it. Guy just looked to go sharply downhill over the last few years and kinda looked shot.

The opportunity might be there, I just don't think DJ can realize it.

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14 hours ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Great reasoning, @Bracie Smathers -- really like the quant approach you took.

While I buy the fact that DJ has the opportunity for those stats, my problem is around the probability of whether he can do it. Guy just looked to go sharply downhill over the last few years and kinda looked shot.

The opportunity might be there, I just don't think DJ can realize it.

I'll start by saying that you could be correct that DJ has lost it.  We saw last year when BOB traded for Duke most everyone assumed he had a clear path but then they signed Hyde and Duke dreams went up in smoke.

Hyde was ineffective in the passing game.  Duke isn't a feature back.  DJ can be 'thee-guy' but we'll have to wait-and-see if they bring in someone else or if they stick with DJ.

Now just 'assume' DJ was hampered by injuries and hadn't quite gotten back on track from the previous year.  Think back and just 'assume' DJ is well rested and healthy.  Prior to the start of the season two years back DJ was considered the top fantasy RB.  He showed flashed of that back last year.

Last year he only had two games with more than 11 carries. 

  • In the opener he got 18 carries for 82 rushing yards with an additional 7 receptions for 55 yards and a score.
  • The other he got 17 carries for 91 yards with an additional 5 receptions for 65 yards.  

He produced the only two times he was fed last year with a bad line and a rookie QB before Arizona got Drake who took over.

Yes David looked bad but it is possible he can have a huge bounce back year.  They are paying him over $10 million this year so I think they'll run him as much as they can.

The key IMHO is if they sign a big name or draft someone high but even then I think they give him every opportunity to be the feature back and BOB gets stubborn with his loyalty just as he did last year with Hyde but DJ can stay on the field every down as a weapon in the passing game.  

David Johnson has a better line, an established veteran QB, and a HC who will feed him the ball and use his skills in the passing game.  

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2 hours ago, Bracie Smathers said:

I'll start by saying that you could be correct that DJ has lost it.  We saw last year when BOB traded for Duke most everyone assumed he had a clear path but then they signed Hyde and Duke dreams went up in smoke.

Hyde was ineffective in the passing game.  Duke isn't a feature back.  DJ can be 'thee-guy' but we'll have to wait-and-see if they bring in someone else or if they stick with DJ.

Now just 'assume' DJ was hampered by injuries and hadn't quite gotten back on track from the previous year.  Think back and just 'assume' DJ is well rested and healthy.  Prior to the start of the season two years back DJ was considered the top fantasy RB.  He showed flashed of that back last year.

Last year he only had two games with more than 11 carries. 

  • In the opener he got 18 carries for 82 rushing yards with an additional 7 receptions for 55 yards and a score.
  • The other he got 17 carries for 91 yards with an additional 5 receptions for 65 yards.  

He produced the only two times he was fed last year with a bad line and a rookie QB before Arizona got Drake who took over.

Yes David looked bad but it is possible he can have a huge bounce back year.  They are paying him over $10 million this year so I think they'll run him as much as they can.

The key IMHO is if they sign a big name or draft someone high but even then I think they give him every opportunity to be the feature back and BOB gets stubborn with his loyalty just as he did last year with Hyde but DJ can stay on the field every down as a weapon in the passing game.  

David Johnson has a better line, an established veteran QB, and a HC who will feed him the ball and use his skills in the passing game.  

1. He produced in two games, was replaced by Kenyan drake, who couldn’t get a hold on a starting job in weak backfield Miami, and who also produced some pretty dang good weeks with the same line and rookie QB. You make very good and well thought out points and I’m not going to disagree with the overall take. He likely will get the opportunity to be the feature back, and while I Hope he has a good year because I like the player, I’m not sure he can sustain a feature back workload and/or be effective. 
2. The idea that there are targets available is catch-22: there are targets for him in the passing game, but the lack of weapons in the passing game will hurt the running game. 
 

Taking a flyer on any of the tes that are on the ww where I have room.

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This guy hasnt truly produced in 4 years and turns 29 before the season is over. Are there people who believe in him still?????

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Pending how the Hou pick is used, the other thing that won''t help DJ is that the WR corps seems to have taken a pretty significant step back.

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2 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

1. He produced in two games, was replaced by Kenyan drake, who couldn’t get a hold on a starting job in weak backfield Miami, and who also produced some pretty dang good weeks with the same line and rookie QB. You make very good and well thought out points and I’m not going to disagree with the overall take. He likely will get the opportunity to be the feature back, and while I Hope he has a good year because I like the player, I’m not sure he can sustain a feature back workload and/or be effective. 
2. The idea that there are targets available is catch-22: there are targets for him in the passing game, but the lack of weapons in the passing game will hurt the running game. 
 

Taking a flyer on any of the tes that are on the ww where I have room.

He was getting the bulk of work before his ankle injury.  Look at his game log, he produced fantasy points every game the first six games even when splitting carries with Chase before Drake came on board after his injury.

Trying to say Drake was lost in Miami's weak backfield isn't an indictment against David Johnson.  Raheem Mostert came out of weaker RB situations in Cleveland and he sat in SF for years before he broke out.  Hyde and Duke Johnson were traded from Cleveland.  Where a back came from isn't relevant.

He played WR in college, he is a natural in the passing game.  Not just losing Hopkins which opens up targets but the fact Hyde was a zero in the passing game 'likely' lead to DJ replacing him since they don't tip the defense by bringing in Duke and telegraphing what they are doing.

1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

This guy hasnt truly produced in 4 years and turns 29 before the season is over. Are there people who believe in him still?????

Two years ago he was the 10th rated fantasy RB producing over 1,300 combined yards and double digit scores and that was a year removed from missing an entire season due to injury.  Houston is paying him and traded for him so they seem to believe in him handling the load.  

Like I said.  Wait and see if they make any big moves and if they don't then yeah I see the numbers I project as being conservative and not far off his top-ten fantasy production of two years ago.

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8 minutes ago, Bracie Smathers said:

Like I said.  Wait and see if they make any big moves and if they don't then yeah I see the numbers I project as being conservative and not far off his top-ten fantasy production of two years ago.

Well there’s not really an impact players left in free agency and Houston doesn’t have many picks at all so I think the likelihood of a big move at RB is pretty small.

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I'm not a big believe in Dj or Duke, but I am holding onto Duke for the moment in dynasty.  Lots of uncertainty in Houston but I suspect one of the RBs is going to get more than is being projected.

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On 4/4/2020 at 10:30 AM, Bracie Smathers said:

I don't see DJ getting massive numbers but I see him with 'decent' stats.  How I see David Johnson projected numbers for 2020

  • 210 carries (which would put him at #20 in 2019)
  • 800 yards (22 in 2019)
  • 7 Rush TDs (tied with six RBs for 14th so basically around 21st)
  • 655 targets  (120th in the league overall but 19th of RBs)
  • 37 receptions (113th in the league but 21st of RBs)
  • 370 receiving yards (119th overall but 16th of RBs)
  • 3 receiving TDs (13th of RBs and one less than he had last year)

1,170 combined yards with 10 combined TDs which would make him a solid #2 RB.  DJ averaged over 10 yards per reception last year and has a career average of 10.7 so I don't feel the 370 receiving yards are out of whack especially with the loss of Hopkins and DJ's ability to line up outside.  He just has to stay 'reasonably' healthy to reach these numbers IMHO.

FWIW Mike Clay is putting out his NFL unit grades for each team and one of the teams he released is Houston where he 'projects' starter production.

Here is what he has for DJ.

2020 Houston Texans Projection (for RB David Johnson)

  • 234 carries (I had him lower at 210)
  • 949 yards (I had him lower at 800)
  • 6 Rush TDs (I had him one-higher at 7)
  • 47 targets  (I had him higher with 55 targets)
  • 34 receptions (I had him with 37 or three higher receptions so about equal)
  • 335 receiving yards (I have him at 370 receiving yards which is below his career average per reception)
  • 2 receiving TDs (I had him with 3 receiving TDs which is one lower than he had last year)

Clay's projected numbers for David Johnson?  

  • Combined yards - 1,284
  • Combined TDs - 8

My projected numbers for David Johnson?

  • Combined yards - 1,170
  • Combined TDs - 10

Difference he has him with 114 more combined yards and 3 less combined TDs for a FF point differential of 4 pts higher for me which amounts to 40 yards difference which is darn close enough.  We both came up with these projections independent of each other but came to near identical projections.

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Quote

Texans RB David Johnson passed his physical with the organization.

It was the last step in processing before he could join the Texans, making his swap with DeAndre Hopkins official by league ruling. The declining 28-year-old was undoubtedly slowed by injuries last year, limping to an underwhelming 3.7 yards per carry on 94 attempts, but there was never any doubt this trade (for better or worse) would push through. Johnson's availability is the least of the team's worries as Bill O'Brien has left the franchise with only two picks (No. 57, No. 90) in the first two days, and six picks total in next weekend's draft. Defense should be of priority with those selections.

RELATED: 

DeAndre Hopkins

, Arizona Cardinals

SOURCE: Aaron Wilson on Twitter

Apr 15, 2020, 3:28 PM ET

 

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On 4/5/2020 at 1:26 PM, Dr. Octopus said:

Well there’s not really an impact players left in free agency and Houston doesn’t have many picks at all so I think the likelihood of a big move at RB is pretty small.

They have had 'visits' with more RBs than any team in the league according to this chart.

👉 📊 👉 >>  visits by team broken out by position

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Bracie Smathers said:

They have had 'visits' with more RBs than any team in the league according to this chart.

👉 📊 👉 >>  visits by team broken out by position

This is the most valuable link I've seen all off season. Only wish I could see the numbers too.

Edited by cloppbeast

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8 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

This is the most valuable link I've seen all off season. Only wish I could see the numbers too.

Here is an addition made to that Twitter post graphic 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tom Kislingbury@TomKislingbury

Whatever charts I post [and there's a LOT] there's always someone who thinks it's super unfair and misleading of me to post it because they like the data in a different visualisation. Cost of doing business on Twitter. Here's the same data but also showing total visit numbers.  

LINK to chart of same data but also showing total visit numbers

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Bracie Smathers said:

Here is an addition made to that Twitter post graphic 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tom Kislingbury@TomKislingbury

Whatever charts I post [and there's a LOT] there's always someone who thinks it's super unfair and misleading of me to post it because they like the data in a different visualisation. Cost of doing business on Twitter. Here's the same data but also showing total visit numbers.  

LINK to chart of same data but also showing total visit numbers

Yeah, I saw that. This visual is a little more helpful. Found the raw data here. And walterfootball has it broke down by player and type of visit.

Edited by cloppbeast

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19 hours ago, Bracie Smathers said:

They have had 'visits' with more RBs than any team in the league according to this chart.

👉 📊 👉 >>  visits by team broken out by position

Those visits often don't correlate - but we won't know until we do.

Bill O'Brien truly is an idiot if he uses one of the few early picks the Texans have on a RB - but he has shown to be an idiot.

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Those visits often don't correlate - but we won't know until we do.

Bill O'Brien truly is an idiot if he uses one of the few early picks the Texans have on a RB - but he has shown to be an idiot.

In a 'typical' draft season they don't necessarily correlate.  

This year its different from every other draft season.

We have to see how this plays out but they have had the most 'visits', BOB signed a RB after trading for Duke last year.  He's a wild card with a history of making moves so I'm not blowing this off.

As a DJ owner I don't feel comfortable right now and won't unless the Texans go into the year with DJ and Duke and haven't made a big play for another RB.

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Texans coach Bill O'Brien said, "David Johnson is a three-down back who has had some very productive years."

BOB added, "The type of guy he is, I'm so excited about having him, Randall Cobb, Brandin Cooks in our locker room." It's the usual "I've never been better!" excuse from an ex-boyfriend or girlfriend -- just in football form. DJ looked like a shell of his former self in 2019, losing his job to Kenyan Drake by the midway point of the season. Still, O'Brien could feel pressure to feed Johnson plenty of touches in an effort to make the DeAndre Hopkins trade look better. The likes of Arian Foster, Lamar Miller and Carlos Hyde have all been fed 250-plus touches in a single season since O'Brien took over in Houston back in 2014. Look for Johnson to join that group if he's able to stay healthy in 2020.

SOURCE: Aaron Wilson on Twitter

Apr 16, 2020, 12:17 PM ET

Bill O'Brien Is not familiar with the phrase "Past performance is no guarantee of future results."

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On 4/5/2020 at 8:17 AM, Dr. Dan said:

This guy hasnt truly produced in 4 years and turns 29 before the season is over. Are there people who believe in him still?????

Can you expound on this a bit? In 2018 he was RB 9 in my PPR league. He had a back injury last year and it really slowed him down. 

And he doesn't turn 29 until December mid-December, so it's a little hard to hold that against him.

If he's truly healthy, he's got a good shot to have a good couple years in Houston.

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David Johnson: 'I have that chip back on my shoulder'

"back on you're shoulder" ya say. So you are saying over the past few years you collected big money and had no motivation to earn it. I see.

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On 4/17/2020 at 2:32 PM, lod001 said:

David Johnson: 'I have that chip back on my shoulder'

"back on you're shoulder" ya say. So you are saying over the past few years you collected big money and had no motivation to earn it. I see.

I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt. He has been hurt the last couple years. It’s good to hear he feels that way - he should get fed early and often. This is his chance to get back to prominence.

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Well, even with the most RB 'visits' BOB has gone D-Line so-far and their really isn't much left at RB in the draft and it is doubtful he'd get a FA considering how DJ's salary so he looks 'safer' today.

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16 minutes ago, Bracie Smathers said:

Well, even with the most RB 'visits' BOB has gone D-Line so-far and their really isn't much left at RB in the draft and it is doubtful he'd get a FA considering how DJ's salary so he looks 'safer' today.

Good call. And I do think he's going to be a very sneaky play this year. Coach has to save face after getting blasted for that stupid trade. I bet he easily get 100+ targets in the passing game too. 

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On 4/25/2020 at 8:31 AM, ffmail4me said:

Good call. And I do think he's going to be a very sneaky play this year. Coach has to save face after getting blasted for that stupid trade. I bet he easily get 100+ targets in the passing game too. 

He gets six targets a game at least?

That doesn't make sense, man. 

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1 hour ago, rockaction said:

He gets six targets a game at least?

That doesn't make sense, man. 

When you look at their current WRs, and how many games a year both starters have missed with injuries over the last few years, it absolutely does make sense. 

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2 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

When you look at their current WRs, and how many games a year both starters have missed with injuries over the last few years, it absolutely does make sense. 

That's why they cut Duke.

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27 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

That's why they cut Duke.

Where are you seeing that Houston cut Duke Johnson ?

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37 minutes ago, Dawg Pound 69 said:

Where are you seeing that Houston cut Duke Johnson ?

@TotallyRealAdamSchefter

 

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On 5/6/2020 at 11:16 AM, rockaction said:

He gets six targets a game at least?

That doesn't make sense, man. 

He’ll be hurt by game 3, you don’t think he can get 12 targets all year? Hater.

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I’m 1,0000 kinds of out.  Drake looks like a stud in that Arizona system.  I remember a good game or 2 out of Edmonds.  I think Johnson was the problem.  Houston hasn’t been the most RB friendly offense.  No thanks.

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11 minutes ago, jm192 said:

I’m 1,0000 kinds of out.  Drake looks like a stud in that Arizona system.  I remember a good game or 2 out of Edmonds.  I think Johnson was the problem.  Houston hasn’t been the most RB friendly offense.  No thanks.

Interesting. As a huge AZ fan, and a DJ owner in dynasty since his rookie year, I still have glorious memories of those 1.5 seasons where he looked like the second coming of our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ.

I'm holding and buying if the price is right - He has a chance to be a three-down back and it just feels like BoB will feed him to try to prove he was right.

And, he put up some really good numbers last year early in the season before he got hurt, again. He was the RB5 through six weeks last year, so he still has that potential.

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On 5/6/2020 at 1:44 PM, voiceofunreason said:

That's why they cut Duke.

Duke Johnson is still a Texan. 

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Duke Johnson dynasty owner here. 

I’m avoiding David Johnson for the same reason I avoided David Johnson the last 3 years, and haven’t regretted it once.

Hard to predict injury, but David does seem to get hurt a lot. And I don’t see HOU not using Duke at all, since he’s so good in the passing game he can split out wide in 3 receiver sets.

Shark play: avoid David, get Duke on the cheap, get a solid flex back if/when David goes down for a stretch.

if I had DJ anywhere I’d probably hold because his Dynasty trade value can’t be great. So it’s all upside so long as he’s vertical. 

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Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, kutta said:

Interesting. As a huge AZ fan, and a DJ owner in dynasty since his rookie year, I still have glorious memories of those 1.5 seasons where he looked like the second coming of our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ.

I'm holding and buying if the price is right - He has a chance to be a three-down back and it just feels like BoB will feed him to try to prove he was right.

And, he put up some really good numbers last year early in the season before he got hurt, again. He was the RB5 through six weeks last year, so he still has that potential.

Exactly. He still has elite RB1 upside. Now let's hope he stays healthy for a year for once. He was doing very well through 6 weeks last year then he had some kind of injury. 

Edited by Milkman
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6 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Duke Johnson dynasty owner here. 

I’m avoiding David Johnson for the same reason I avoided David Johnson the last 3 years, and haven’t regretted it once.

Hard to predict injury, but David does seem to get hurt a lot. And I don’t see HOU not using Duke at all, since he’s so good in the passing game he can split out wide in 3 receiver sets.

Shark play: avoid David, get Duke on the cheap, get a solid flex back if/when David goes down for a stretch.

if I had DJ anywhere I’d probably hold because his Dynasty trade value can’t be great. So it’s all upside so long as he’s vertical. 

I can totally understand that thinking, and it's probably the right thing to do. But if DJ does hit, it's going to be really good. I'm willing to take that risk at his current price.

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23 minutes ago, kutta said:

Interesting. As a huge AZ fan, and a DJ owner in dynasty since his rookie year, I still have glorious memories of those 1.5 seasons where he looked like the second coming of our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ.

I'm holding and buying if the price is right - He has a chance to be a three-down back and it just feels like BoB will feed him to try to prove he was right.

And, he put up some really good numbers last year early in the season before he got hurt, again. He was the RB5 through six weeks last year, so he still has that potential.

2016 is all he’s ever had.

DJ was a world beater in 2016.  Since then, he hasn’t had 1,000 yards rushing.  He hasn’t averaged 4 yards a carry since then.  He’s had 1 100 yard rushing game since then.  Injuries have played a big part, but they exist.  He’s 28 and will be 29.

 

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2 minutes ago, kutta said:

I can totally understand that thinking, and it's probably the right thing to do. But if DJ does hit, it's going to be really good. I'm willing to take that risk at his current price.

Of course - that risk/reward is factored into his redraft price. If we knew he’d “hit” he’s a top 7 pick, right? 

As it is he’s what, late second / mid 3rd?

I don’t know if the 2020 Texans are a better or worse run OL than AZ has been...I’m leaning worse. 

 

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