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Borden

Best Ball (MFL10s, DRAFT, etc.)

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Well my first year at these MFL 10's was definitely a bit disappointing. 1st place in 2 out of 11 leagues. Barely lost 1st place by less than 5 points in a third league.

Main lesson learned was to diversify significantly more. I hate the idea of not drafting a player because I own him in other leagues but implementing an ownership percentage limit would allow me to draft other players I like.

I'll try to keep ownership percentages in the 25-35% range next time, though I'm sure I'll find another Andre Johnson/Doug Martin combo that I'll fall in love with next year.

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2/11 puts you well ahead of the curve. That shouldn't be disappointing.

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First year doing MFL10's. I won 2 of 8 leagues and 2nd place in 2 more. Do they automatically send you winnings or do you have to go and fill out a form?

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In years past, they would send money automatically. This year they will put winnings into your public league dashboard where you will be able to withdraw. Exact process is unknown at this moment.

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5 leagues will have different winners due to the D Williams fumble change. And it looks like one of them may be plastik :thumbup:

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They said they will put winnings in the dashboard tomorrow. I doubt it will go smoothly, but you never know.

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Broadway thanks for all your help! I hope you will continue to be a great resource for us. Maybe you could give a quick bullet point list of successful tips for this year?

Last year did 9 and won 2. Lotta luck as always. This year I did 12 and didn't win a single one but did manage 4 second place finished for the credits. That's a nice bonus.

I did about half of them before the draft (the first in February LOL). Only one got a second place finish. I think this next season I'll refrain--if I can--until after the draft.

On another note, oddly enough, one of my favorite teams was the one I did with you and the others in the first forum member MFL 10. I drafted Dez and Demarco and spent two thirds of the season in last place. Thanks to James white, danny Woodhaed, Watkins and an emerging Julious Thomas at the end, I managed to finish 7th LOL!!!

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Just discovered this topic, and also just discovered the MFL leagues this year. Here are my results:

5 MFL10's:

1st: 2

2nd: 1

4th:1

5th: 1

3 MFL25's:

1st: all 3!

So quite a successful year, turning $125 into $800. Interesting that I did better in the 25's than the 10's, but a very small sample size. I suspect I will do many more of these next year.

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I haven't analyzed much of anything yet, but just off the top of my head I would say:

1. Very conservative with my picks. I skipped over or had minimal exposure to most of the rookies and leaned a lot more toward the vets.

2. Varied drafting strategies. I wanted to get a lot of data points for various draft styles so I managed to take just enough Brown/Gronk/Julio to offset my overall RB heavy style.

3. Up to date information. By tracking every pick made in every MFL10 I was really able to maximize 'value'

P.S. Absolutely amazing job FYD!

Edited by BroadwayG

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They said they will put winnings in the dashboard tomorrow. I doubt it will go smoothly, but you never know.

Withdrawals are available now?

Edited by Kevrunner

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More info on the impact of rookies on a roster:

Rook    Avg Points      ARk     Tot     Win     WinRate0	2247.698996	5	6378	773	0.12119786767011602381	2234.511938	6	9742	978	0.10039006364196263602	2216.128449	6	9276	806	0.08689090125053902543	2190.984446	6	6751	433	0.06413864612649977784	2169.947541	7	4068	213	0.05235988200589970505	2140.930740	7	2147	90	0.04191895668374476016	2122.824775	7	1001	39	0.03896103896103896107	2076.566666	8	489	10	0.02044989775051124748	2072.747417	8	213	9	0.04225352112676056339	2036.967901	9	81	0	0.000000000000000000010	1967.013953	9	43	0	0.000000000000000000011	2019.286666	9	15	0	0.000000000000000000012	2017.725000	8	4	0	0.000000000000000000013	1632.600000	12	1	0	0.000000000000000000015	1893.500000	11	2	0	0.000000000000000000017	1696.100000	12	1	0	0.0000000000000000000

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More info on the impact of rookies on a roster:

Rook    Avg Points      ARk     Tot     Win     WinRate0	2247.698996	5	6378	773	0.12119786767011602381	2234.511938	6	9742	978	0.10039006364196263602	2216.128449	6	9276	806	0.08689090125053902543	2190.984446	6	6751	433	0.06413864612649977784	2169.947541	7	4068	213	0.05235988200589970505	2140.930740	7	2147	90	0.04191895668374476016	2122.824775	7	1001	39	0.03896103896103896107	2076.566666	8	489	10	0.02044989775051124748	2072.747417	8	213	9	0.04225352112676056339	2036.967901	9	81	0	0.000000000000000000010	1967.013953	9	43	0	0.000000000000000000011	2019.286666	9	15	0	0.000000000000000000012	2017.725000	8	4	0	0.000000000000000000013	1632.600000	12	1	0	0.000000000000000000015	1893.500000	11	2	0	0.000000000000000000017	1696.100000	12	1	0	0.0000000000000000000

Wow! This is really interesting. Great information.

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Well my first year at these MFL 10's was definitely a bit disappointing. 1st place in 2 out of 11 leagues. Barely lost 1st place by less than 5 points in a third league.

Main lesson learned was to diversify significantly more. I hate the idea of not drafting a player because I own him in other leagues but implementing an ownership percentage limit would allow me to draft other players I like.

I'll try to keep ownership percentages in the 25-35% range next time, though I'm sure I'll find another Andre Johnson/Doug Martin combo that I'll fall in love with next year.

Sounds like a good year to me results wise.

Roster diversification is something I will concentrate on next year as well. This season I felt I had a good year despite being burned by Kaepernick/J.Charles/SPILLER! on way too many rosters.

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Given the prize structure, I think the MFL10's require a lot of luck and I had more than my share this year. Going in I hoped to win at least 1 league which would make me profitable. For me, any year that I'm even or better is a good year.

Congrats on 40% in the $$. What about you? Any particular strategies that seemed to pay off?

From your nick I assume you're a Chargers fan. Hope they stay in San Diego for you.

At this point, I'm not sure if it may be a case of shaking a curse if they leave.

I agree with BroadwayG in that I am fairly risk adverse. The biggest problem I had was being too invested in certain players. Definitely will try to spread out the injury risk next season. I had certain players on nearly 50% of my rosters.... kind of dumb in retrospect.

Interesting strategy on defense. I wish I would have concentrated more on the DEN D since I am a big believer in Wade Philips. As much as I try to be objective with money on the line but it's pretty tough to root for the broncos to do well.

Good luck next season! I have a feeling this thread will do very well during the spring/summer and will be full of off-season debate. That's always been the best time on the boards imo.

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5 leagues will have different winners due to the D Williams fumble change. And it looks like one of them may be plastik :thumbup:

Yup... and that one change kept me in 1st by .3 points which kept me profitable on the year. I was really unhappy with what I thought was a very narrow loss in that league, a loss that would have put me in the red on the year.

In the end I paid for 38 leagues ($380). I won 4 ($400) and came in second in another 4 ($40 credit). That puts me at about 16% return. I feel good about that and will likely roll my whole bankroll into 2016.

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Broadway thanks for all your help! I hope you will continue to be a great resource for us.

Big time. Thanks, Broadway!

One thing concerning the rookies... Rookie running backs were probably pretty helpful at times, I think. Especially at their predraft value. There were some real landmines in Rookie WRs, though... White, Agholor, Perriman, and all of them were going in the first 8 rounds for significant spans if I remember correctly. If it's easy to run the breakdown of rookie RBs vs. WRs, it would be interesting to see.

For me, diversity was key, as I made sure to expose myself to almost everyone, but tried to avoid overexposure. As I was drafting I was keeping track of exposure with this google document. I was highlighting players to target with green, made them yellow as I felt I was becomming too exposed, and red if I didn't really want to touch them or felt really over exposed to them. I put players I felt were being over drafted in purple and would only take them at extreme ADP value. I made this list of players with early season ADP. I'm not very savvy with spreadsheets and data, though, and I wished I could have re-sorted players according to ADP as it changed, but I just made due and paired this sheet with current ADP from MFL.

In the end, all of my winning teams had either Freeman (3) or Martin (2) at RB, one had both. With all the discussion about early RB being important, it turned out just the opposite this year, with mid-round RBs doing very well. I feel like there will never be a consistent strategy (e.g. take a WR in the 1st and 2nd, or 3 RBs in the top 5, etc.) that can be taken as a rule, because success will always be about picking the players that blow up and avoiding those that get injured or bust. So to me it seems like diversity of approach is key, and to mine value at ADP at all times. If you can do that I suppose you can probably outperform the average. Next year, like this year, I'll probably try every different strategy in at least a few leagues... Early QB with Cam, TE with Gronk, RB early, load up on pass catching RBs late, and so on. Early in the year I'll also be looking to draft players coming off injury like Benjamin or Jordy, as I imagine they'll start with later ADP and creep up as the season approaches. Anyway, my two cents for now...

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I'm hoping to have a working web app up this offseason sometime that mimics the desktop app that I wrote for myself last year. But that's a whole different world, we'll see.

Individual Rookie data (minimum 100 leagues):

Name	        Pos	Points	Count	Win%	ADPJohnson, David	RB	2269.0	3217	12.7%	117.4William, Karlos	RB	2279.0	527	10.4%	208.8Allen, Javorius	RB	2228.2	2529	10.3%	187.7Jones, Matt	RB	2236.1	2886	10.3%	164.1Gurley, Todd	RB	2233.5	3351	9.2%	43.8Johnson, Duke	RB	2228.3	3351	8.8%	88.7Yeldon, T.J.	RB	2210.4	3351	8.4%	52.1Lockett, Tyler	WR	2220.6	2450	7.9%	195.4Langfor, Jeremy	RB	2230.4	785	7.5%	210.4Cooper, Amari	WR	2203.2	3351	7.2%	50.8Winston, Jameis	QB	2185.7	3338	7.2%	161.5Abdullah, Ameer	RB	2188.0	3350	6.8%	56.6Artis-, Cameron	RB	2186.7	2676	6.3%	180.4Mariota, Marcus	QB	2184.9	3306	6.2%	173.5Cobb, David	RB	2163.1	3287	6.1%	121.2Robinson, Josh	RB	2188.1	1076	6.0%	209.5Hardy, Justin	WR	2158.2	844	5.9%	213.7Dorset, Phillip	WR	2164.1	3151	5.7%	169.9Coleman, Tevin	RB	2152.8	3350	5.7%	70.6Conley, Chris	WR	2159.4	922	5.6%	217.6Montgomery, Ty	WR	2195.9	926	5.4%	176.8Funchess, Devin	WR	2167.2	3308	5.1%	140.0Green-B, Dorial	WR	2160.8	3351	5.0%	138.2Smith, Devin	WR	2113.3	625	4.6%	215.4Parker, DeVante	WR	2159.0	3351	4.6%	110.0Williams, Maxx	TE	2147.0	3115	4.6%	189.4Walford, Clive	TE	2168.0	544	4.6%	216.3Davis, Mike	RB	2124.8	810	4.4%	208.0Strong, Jaelen	WR	2134.2	2988	4.3%	187.0Gordon, Melvin	RB	2145.5	3351	4.3%	32.5Zenner, Zach	RB	2195.3	415	4.1%	206.3Ajayi, Jay	RB	2135.8	2987	4.1%	124.9Agholor, Nelson	WR	2138.1	3226	3.9%	81.2Diggs, Stefon	WR	2152.4	130	3.8%	219.4Perrim, Breshad	WR	2131.9	3278	3.6%	105.2Carter, Duron	WR	2063.0	228	3.5%	203.7White, Kevin	WR	2087.7	2655	3.1%	91.0Bell, Kenny	WR	2091.5	133	3.0%	213.0Coates, Sammie	WR	2097.8	1138	2.9%	215.1

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I'm hoping to have a working web app up this offseason sometime that mimics the desktop app that I wrote for myself last year. But that's a whole different world, we'll see.

Individual Rookie data (minimum 100 leagues):

Name	        Pos	Points	Count	Win%	ADPJohnson, David	RB	2269.0	3217	12.7%	117.4William, Karlos	RB	2279.0	527	10.4%	208.8Allen, Javorius	RB	2228.2	2529	10.3%	187.7Jones, Matt	RB	2236.1	2886	10.3%	164.1Gurley, Todd	RB	2233.5	3351	9.2%	43.8Johnson, Duke	RB	2228.3	3351	8.8%	88.7Yeldon, T.J.	RB	2210.4	3351	8.4%	52.1Lockett, Tyler	WR	2220.6	2450	7.9%	195.4Langfor, Jeremy	RB	2230.4	785	7.5%	210.4Cooper, Amari	WR	2203.2	3351	7.2%	50.8Winston, Jameis	QB	2185.7	3338	7.2%	161.5Abdullah, Ameer	RB	2188.0	3350	6.8%	56.6Artis-, Cameron	RB	2186.7	2676	6.3%	180.4Mariota, Marcus	QB	2184.9	3306	6.2%	173.5Cobb, David	RB	2163.1	3287	6.1%	121.2Robinson, Josh	RB	2188.1	1076	6.0%	209.5Hardy, Justin	WR	2158.2	844	5.9%	213.7Dorset, Phillip	WR	2164.1	3151	5.7%	169.9Coleman, Tevin	RB	2152.8	3350	5.7%	70.6Conley, Chris	WR	2159.4	922	5.6%	217.6Montgomery, Ty	WR	2195.9	926	5.4%	176.8Funchess, Devin	WR	2167.2	3308	5.1%	140.0Green-B, Dorial	WR	2160.8	3351	5.0%	138.2Smith, Devin	WR	2113.3	625	4.6%	215.4Parker, DeVante	WR	2159.0	3351	4.6%	110.0Williams, Maxx	TE	2147.0	3115	4.6%	189.4Walford, Clive	TE	2168.0	544	4.6%	216.3Davis, Mike	RB	2124.8	810	4.4%	208.0Strong, Jaelen	WR	2134.2	2988	4.3%	187.0Gordon, Melvin	RB	2145.5	3351	4.3%	32.5Zenner, Zach	RB	2195.3	415	4.1%	206.3Ajayi, Jay	RB	2135.8	2987	4.1%	124.9Agholor, Nelson	WR	2138.1	3226	3.9%	81.2Diggs, Stefon	WR	2152.4	130	3.8%	219.4Perrim, Breshad	WR	2131.9	3278	3.6%	105.2Carter, Duron	WR	2063.0	228	3.5%	203.7White, Kevin	WR	2087.7	2655	3.1%	91.0Bell, Kenny	WR	2091.5	133	3.0%	213.0Coates, Sammie	WR	2097.8	1138	2.9%	215.1

If outcomes were random, I suppose you'd win 8.3% of the time, so after Yeldon the rest were all losing propositions. The top four of those RBs would have all gone very late. If there is any lesson here I guess it would be to try to nab one high upside RB in the late rounds who's 2nd or 3rd on the depth chart.

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I was only in 4 this year and only managed to get 2nd in one of them. The rest I was in the middle or in the bottom half. I really enjoyed them for it being my first time, I plan on doing more next year.

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Looks like they started drafting these things pretty early last season. I think February 2nd was the earliest I've seen. The day after the SuperBowl.

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Can someone bump this thread when MFL10s and/or MFL0s start this year? I'm checking occasionally but not every day - thanks!

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It will be shortly after the super bowl. Which gives me almost no time to get prepared.

Edited by BroadwayG

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I don't know if it's been mentioned but I have the solution to making these leagues 200% more enjoyable. There is nothing worse than the one guy who times out multiple times during a draft, or sometimes more than just one owner is a draft killer. Right now, MFL has it set so that if an owner times out two picks in a row, they're placed on auto pick.

The simple solution? Put any owner who times out (even just once) on auto pick. After all, there really is no good excuse for timing out when we can all predraft. Any owner placed on auto pick can always predraft his own picks, therefor he/she would still have control over their own team.

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I don't know if it's been mentioned but I have the solution to making these leagues 200% more enjoyable. There is nothing worse than the one guy who times out multiple times during a draft, or sometimes more than just one owner is a draft killer. Right now, MFL has it set so that if an owner times out two picks in a row, they're placed on auto pick.

The simple solution? Put any owner who times out (even just once) on auto pick. After all, there really is no good excuse for timing out when we can all predraft. Any owner placed on auto pick can always predraft his own picks, therefor he/she would still have control over their own team.

I understand that stuff happens. I timed out once in 22 drafts last year when the Internet was down all day at work (and got stuck with Josh Gordon...ugh). What I would change would be to keep people permanently on auto once they do a double timed out. It is always frustrating when a guy goes on auto, only to be taken off after his next pick. I remember one draft when someone was put on auto,was taken off, then timed out on his next pick...talk about sucking the fun out of a draft.

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They keep pushing them back. Their Twitter kept saying they'd be ready the next day all week and yesterday they announced it would be "early next week."

I get that it is February, it is just frustrating when a business doesn't follow through on what they say. When they were tweeting on Sunday that they were hoping to have them up on Monday, but no later than Tuesday or Wednesday, they should really make good on that. Oh well, they'll be ready when they're ready, I guess.

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Looks like it may be MFL eve.

Have to admit I was hoping they might be expanding the rosters, especially for these very early leagues with so many pieces in motion. A roster size of 30 would have been fun. I could understand if they trimmed the roster size down to closer to 20 in August/September when they do the bulk of their drafts to get a higher volume completed but this time of year why not do 30 rounds?

The MFL adp data is more relevant than the "fantasy fantasy drafts" where nothing is on the line. It would have been great to get 30 rounds of data to find out if that deep WR is being thought of as a 21st rounder or a 29th rounder. I still miss those Phenom leagues and it feels like there is a hole in the industry that would like to do DEEP draft-and-go all offseason.

If the format is staying the same...... what was with the delay this year? Did the Super Bowl sneak up on them this year?

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I don't think the first one has kicked off yet. Anybody have a 2016 cheat sheet just as a reference for us degenerates that are gonna jump in at the starting gun? LOL

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2 hours ago, Kwai Chang Caine said:

I don't think the first one has kicked off yet. Anybody have a 2016 cheat sheet just as a reference for us degenerates that are gonna jump in at the starting gun? LOL

I'd check out the WSL drafts in the Mock draft forums.  There is a premium on TEs, and it is a 16 team league with 6 pts for passing TD (so QBs tend to go earlier), but it could give you a rough blueprint of where WRs and RBs are going against one another.

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I am in early this year, first Febraury mfl 10. 

 

Somebody named WazNFL is already in 10 leagues?! I thought I had a sickness.

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2 hours ago, BoltBacker said:

I am in early this year, first Febraury mfl 10. 

 

Somebody named WazNFL is already in 10 leagues?! I thought I had a sickness.

Yeah I saw that too LOL! Glad to know there is someone worse than me....it's a comfort.

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Anyone else back at it? I started 2 more today at 1pm. It's now 5:20 and I have yet to make a pick in either. F5, F5, F5, F5...

 

Some of the top guys are switching up their team name to throw people off. However, if you look up their real name on the leaderboard you can match their current league standing to their team. Anyone tracking this stuff? I made a big ole spreadsheet for Aaron H using copypasta but there must be an easier way.

Edited by mrip541

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Make a new thread.  No need to tag on to last year's content - that makes it weird to search the thread.

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4 hours ago, mrip541 said:

Anyone else back at it? I started 2 more today at 1pm. It's now 5:20 and I have yet to make a pick in either. F5, F5, F5, F5...

I signed up for one at 3:30 PM, the draft started at 5:00 PM, and we are in the 2nd round.

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Anyone else not getting all of their "on the clock" emails? It's kind of ruining some of my teams. Timing out is particularly punishing now that all the rookies are at the top of the ADP list.

Edited by mrip541

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I have been getting mine, every so often it's 20 minutes late or so. That may be a gmail quirk though and not MFL, not really sure.

 

I just check in three times a day and have never had an issue getting auto-drafted. Lots of folks seem to go more than 24 hours without checking into the leagues so I have no idea what their issue is or if they even remember they signed up for a league.

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On 6/3/2016 at 2:20 PM, mrip541 said:

Some of the top guys are switching up their team name to throw people off. However, if you look up their real name on the leaderboard you can match their current league standing to their team. Anyone tracking this stuff? I made a big ole spreadsheet for Aaron H using copypasta but there must be an easier way.

In what way are you using the data you are accumulating? 

This may be a very dumb question and common knowledge..... but what was the winning % of Aaron H last season? 

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On 2/17/2016 at 10:37 AM, Borden said:

0 for about 20. Tough year to say the least. 

Are you playing again this year? I like reading your posts.... I am sure you would do better this year.

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38 minutes ago, BoltBacker said:

Are you playing again this year? I like reading your posts.... I am sure you would do better this year.

I did one but work/life got really hectic. Plus, I did start up draft a few months ago then the commish went Mia. Now we are trying to sort out league, plus rookie drafts.

Also, going 0 for 20 means I need to reconsider how I'm going about this. I'd like to go back and look over my leagues to see if there was something obvious that I was doing wrong. Unfortunately, it's not something that I can just do quickly so the time commitment is just too much at the moment. I would like to get back into the discussion but I don't trust my opinion. 

I do appreciate the kind words. Thank you. 

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44 minutes ago, Borden said:

I did one but work/life got really hectic. Plus, I did start up draft a few months ago then the commish went Mia. Now we are trying to sort out league, plus rookie drafts.

Also, going 0 for 20 means I need to reconsider how I'm going about this. I'd like to go back and look over my leagues to see if there was something obvious that I was doing wrong. Unfortunately, it's not something that I can just do quickly so the time commitment is just too much at the moment. I would like to get back into the discussion but I don't trust my opinion. 

I do appreciate the kind words. Thank you. 

Sometimes we come away with stronger lessons when things don't go as planned. For instance I remember Bloom on a podcast mentioned he wasn't happy with how his "3-TE-late" experiment ended but he doesn't really mention the win percentage of teams that employed that strategy which would be fascinating since I get the impression he plays in a lot of these things. IMO everyone is going to go early, often, and heavy on RB/WR so the really interesting strategy conversations all revolve around QB/TE/D's. 

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1 hour ago, BoltBacker said:

Sometimes we come away with stronger lessons when things don't go as planned. For instance I remember Bloom on a podcast mentioned he wasn't happy with how his "3-TE-late" experiment ended but he doesn't really mention the win percentage of teams that employed that strategy which would be fascinating since I get the impression he plays in a lot of these things. IMO everyone is going to go early, often, and heavy on RB/WR so the really interesting strategy conversations all revolve around QB/TE/D's. 

You're tricking me back into this conversation. :D 

TE early I can see because there's so few with predictable high output. D it's tough to say. Because you could draft 2 with different bye weeks and be covered. They aren't going to get hurt. Plus, usually it's a bit unpredictable from year to year. I think Atlanta might be a good one for later in the draft since Dan Quinn is building his defense. Maybe Jax too but I feel like they're everyone's darling right now. I drafted 2 in lots of drafts but I also drafted 3 or 4 in other drafts. So, I'm not sure. QB is a strange one. I think it depends a lot on the rest of the people in the draft. "Wait on QB" is so in vogue right now that I don't think I'd every want to be the first person to break the seal. However, taking the second and 3rd QB might be something to look into. Highest producers and you might start a run which may negate some of the lost value.

What do you think?

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Just my opinion, but if possible I like getting one of the top 8 TEs. If I'm drafting from a later position, I like to target Reed at the 3/4 turn. If I don't end up with Reed, I like getting somebody like Fleener, Walker, Kelce, or Ertz in the 6th/7th round or Barnidge in 8/9. I do think there's a decent case for waiting and going for 3 in the mid-late rounds though due to the depth of the position. 

As far as QB, I am not taking one in the first 7 rounds this year. I'd consider Rothlisberger/Brees if they slide to the 8th or 9th. If I miss on those guys, I like the idea of really waiting a while and snagging three QBs relatively late. Somebody ~12th round (Stafford, Tyrod, Romo), somebody around the 15th round (Flacco, Cutler) and then another QB in the 19th or 20th (Bridgewater or RGIII). 

I prefer being able to snag a couple useful QBs in the last 6 rounds vs. being light at RB/WR and having to throw darts at long shots late. 

In terms of RB/WR, I've been leaning a little bit RB-heavy in the first 4/5 rounds and trying to get 3 top backs in the first 5 rounds. Really like Hyde in the late 3rd or 4th round and have been getting him often. Freeman is a guy I like in the 2nd. If I'm drafting mid-1st, I usually end up with Bell, Gurley or Elliott. I really like the WR value in rounds 4-9 and hit the position pretty hard to make up for the fact that I'm usually only getting one top WR early. I've been ending up with Marvin Jones on every team. Willing to reach a little for Tavon Austin. And usually ending up with a  couple guys like Decker, K. White, Lockett, Hurns, etc. 

So for example my most recent from the 5 spot I went Le'Veon, K. Allen, Ingram, Hyde, Moncrief, Ajayi, Marv. Jones, Barnidge in the first 8 rounds. 

 

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19 hours ago, Borden said:

You're tricking me back into this conversation. :D 

TE early I can see because there's so few with predictable high output. D it's tough to say. Because you could draft 2 with different bye weeks and be covered. They aren't going to get hurt. Plus, usually it's a bit unpredictable from year to year. I think Atlanta might be a good one for later in the draft since Dan Quinn is building his defense. Maybe Jax too but I feel like they're everyone's darling right now. I drafted 2 in lots of drafts but I also drafted 3 or 4 in other drafts. So, I'm not sure. QB is a strange one. I think it depends a lot on the rest of the people in the draft. "Wait on QB" is so in vogue right now that I don't think I'd every want to be the first person to break the seal. However, taking the second and 3rd QB might be something to look into. Highest producers and you might start a run which may negate some of the lost value.

What do you think?

I have been all over the place on TE depending on where I draft, how high they are going, and the latest news. Started early, then after FA trended later but now it seems like quite a few are having surgeries and some missing practice with new teams so trending a little earlier. Kind of a tough call for me.

It's interesting you bring up the ATL D. I was very high on them early in the process but I expected them to get more difference makers this off season. After the draft I have been laying off of them. For instance they could have come out of the draft with:

1. Jack/Spencer as a legit playmaker

2. Von Bell at SS

3. Kendall Fuller to help in coverage at the slot

4. Either Billings or Ridgeway to bolster the DL and replace Paul Soliai

no 5th

6. Scooby Wright ST ace and short yardage LB to help

7. Cash ST ace and nickel LB/short yardage S

I know it's unrealistic to expect a team to take ALL the guys you thought they should have, but I expected them to improve the talent on that defense a lot more than they did. The DEF I have taken more than any other so far is IND pretty late. Everyone says they didn't improve their defense much but I am a big fan of Hassan Ridgeway as a guy that helps vs both the run and pass. Having Henry Anderson back will make a huge difference imo. Nobody mentions the addition of Patrick Robinson but he had a great season for SD last year. I am also a bigger fan of the pick of TJ Green than most and think he may improve the S position. Perhaps most importantly I assume the offense won't be the stagnant mess it was last year and that will make life easier for the defense. Freeman is a loss but I think the DL and DB improvements more than make up for it.

If people wait too long on that first tier I have no problem taking my favorite of that elite bubble. This also allows you to go VERY late on your QB2 and use those pick#100-#160 on other positions. Sometimes I go three if people are completely ignoring the QB position of if people are taking them so early that I end up taking my QB1 very late. 

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Where's Julius Thomas going? I think he might be a sneaky play this year if you can get him late. Might be up and down to much for H2H leagues but in best ball he might not be so bad. 

Indy is a good pick for a D. I like "bad" defenses in fantasy when they have a high powered offense. More chances for picks and sacks at the end of games. And off course they are cheap.

With good and new DCs (I know he's a HC) like Quinn it's tough to say how much they may have improved. He might have younger guys that he likes ready to step in that we just haven't seen yet. Jarrett, Therezire (I don't think that's how you spell it) and Mbu could all fit this. More so the last two since I think Jarrett already has a solid role. Us going through defensive rosters is fun but probably probably fruitless. For me it's anyways since I think I would end up scouring through rosters and schemes but still be completely wrong because of the high number of variables. Or maybe we need a defenses thread. 

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On 6/7/2016 at 2:25 PM, BoltBacker said:

In what way are you using the data you are accumulating? 

This may be a very dumb question and common knowledge..... but what was the winning % of Aaron H last season? 

Rough #s from an old tweet I was mentioned in:

Aaron H - 581 leagues, 89 1st, 79 2nds - 15.3% win rate.

https://twitter.com/ryanlessard/status/682953167882088448

Edited by BroadwayG
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11 minutes ago, BroadwayG said:

Rough #s from an old tweet I was mentioned in:

Aaron H - 581 leagues, 89 1st, 79 2nds - 15.3% win rate.

8900 - 5810 is a $3090 profit. Plus another 790 worth of free plays. 

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