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Is Mike Evans the #1 Dynasty WR? (1 Viewer)

Soulfly3

Soulfly3

Footballguy
The curious case of Mike Evans.

I want to preface this by saying in my own rankings, Mike Evans does not appear at the #1 spot, but I do have him extremely close to it, and above Odell Beckham.

Mike Evans played opposite a very solid career WR by the name of Vincent Jackson, who despite 140 targets, to Mike Evans' 123 - put up 1002/2 on the season.

Mike Evans' Rookie Season: 1051/12. INCREDIBLE

Of course, this doesn't make him the #1 Dynasty WR, there are a ton more factors involved.

For comparison's sake, Mike Evans ranked #24 in the NFL in targets last season.

Mike Evans played with putridity at QB as well.

Mike Evans was a rookie.

Mike Evans had the 4th most TDs in the league.

Mike Evans also missed one game last season.

Mike Evans is only 21 years old. (22 when season starts)

Mike Evans did all THIS, despite only 68 reception. 68. 68! (30th in the league!)

Mike Evans MAY be getting an upgrade at QB, but he proved this season, he can do it without

Physically, he is off the charts... Speed is very good, hands very good, and the kid plays with INTENSITY.

I've always been big on Mike Evans... But maybe it's not as big as it should be.

Thoughts?

 
BroadwayG said:
Got him right behind TY Hilton in my rankings
Click to expand...
behind? wow... Id love to hear your POV

fruity pebbles said:
Soulfly3 said:
fruity pebbles said:
Why would you take a guy #1 when there are young guys already doing what you hope he becomes?
Click to expand...
such as?
Click to expand...
Dez, Julio, AJ, Antonio, Odell.
Click to expand...
only one of those listed is even comparable in age.

of course, Im not saying the other guys are old, as they're just hitting their prime years... But Evans is 22. And put up a better Rookie Year than any of those toehr listed WRs (bar beckham), and was just as touted out of college, and drafted higher (not that being drafted earlier means he's better, but just that he was that highly rated out of college, and proved it year 1 in the NFL)

 
Soulfly3 said:
BroadwayG said:
Got him right behind TY Hilton in my rankings
Click to expand...
behind? wow... Id love to hear your POV

fruity pebbles said:
Soulfly3 said:
fruity pebbles said:
Why would you take a guy #1 when there are young guys already doing what you hope he becomes?
Click to expand...
such as?
Click to expand...
Dez, Julio, AJ, Antonio, Odell.
Click to expand...
only one of those listed is even comparable in age.

of course, Im not saying the other guys are old, as they're just hitting their prime years... But Evans is 22. And put up a better Rookie Year than any of those toehr listed WRs (bar beckham), and was just as touted out of college, and drafted higher (not that being drafted earlier means he's better, but just that he was that highly rated out of college, and proved it year 1 in the NFL)
Click to expand...
Who cares. Nobody's looking out 10 years in a dynasty. 9/10 leagues would be folded and most teams turn over their entire roster every couple years anyways. If you have him above established young stars who are already putting up north of 1500 yards, you're playing all risk and minimal reward
 
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My biggest concern when talking about his rookie campaign was that almost HALF of his production in terms of yards and TD's came in that torrid 3 game stretch he had mid-year. Granted, those are some impressive games. But I do have concern that despite the horrid play by his QB and team in general, he only topped 60 yards receiving in 2 of his other 12 games. That's pretty horrible, even for a rookie in a bad situation.

Again, I like Evans and think he's got some serious upside. I just don't know that he's on the elite tier of dynasty WR's right now, and he's definitely not in the conversation for #1.

 
Biggest negatives

1. Hasn't done enough yet to be ranked #1

2. Doesn't have a competent qb

Neither means he won't get there but the chance is less than with others including OBJ, Julio, and even Benjamin.

 
matttyl said:
How are you going to adjust your thoughts with Winston chucking the ball?
Click to expand...
I'd have to see how well Winston can hack it in the NFL

How much worse is he going to be than Glennon/McCown? That's the question... I think even if he tanks, he wont be worse than them

 
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FUBAR said:
Biggest negatives

1. Hasn't done enough yet to be ranked #1

2. Doesn't have a competent qb

Neither means he won't get there but the chance is less than with others including OBJ, Julio, and even Benjamin.
Click to expand...
these are valid criticisms.

But let's look at a guy like Demariyus Thomas... Did well with scrub QBs... Exploded w manning... and will very likely be back to a scrub qb in 1-2 years.

Many folks still have no issue putting him top3 in dynasty, despite those concerns, and despite being 28 during next season.

Of course, he's proven it for more than 1 year, but it's just something to take into account

 
Do I have Mike Evans #1? No. Would I jump on anyone for ranking him #1? No. Rankings are an inexact science and do not guarantee anything.

That said, going back and watching highlights I am impressed by how physical he plays. He really fights for position and the ball. Add that to his height and surprising speed and you have quite a prospect. I did have Sammy ranked higher and took Sammy at 1.1 in my rookie draft, but I made sure to trade for Evans early in the season.

 
anyways... I started this thread as a response to the sudden group think that Odell Beckham is the clear cut no1 dynasty WR

Yet, despite Mike Evans having a near historical rookie year w a CRAP qb stable (if not for ODB), some folks are saying he's behind TY Hilton?

just wanted some discussion going... the disparity between beckham and evans seems to huge on this forum, and I see no justification for it

 
Soulfly3 said:
FUBAR said:
Biggest negatives

1. Hasn't done enough yet to be ranked #1

2. Doesn't have a competent qb

Neither means he won't get there but the chance is less than with others including OBJ, Julio, and even Benjamin.
Click to expand...
these are valid criticisms.

But let's look at a guy like Demariyus Thomas... Did well with scrub QBs... Exploded w manning... and will very likely be back to a scrub qb in 1-2 years.

Many folks still have no issue putting him top3 in dynasty, despite those concerns, and despite being 28 during next season.

Of course, he's proven it for more than 1 year, but it's just something to take into account
Click to expand...
And he could be out of Denver and who knows where. For all we know Indy could make a big splash and bring him in to pair with Hilton.

 
I have a man crush on evans, id have a hard time taking him over dez, brown, dt or Julio maybe calvin.

Personally, where i dont own him, im praying for a slump and then ill swoop in

 
Soulfly3 said:
FUBAR said:
Biggest negatives

1. Hasn't done enough yet to be ranked #1

2. Doesn't have a competent qb

Neither means he won't get there but the chance is less than with others including OBJ, Julio, and even Benjamin.
Click to expand...
these are valid criticisms.

But let's look at a guy like Demariyus Thomas... Did well with scrub QBs... Exploded w manning... and will very likely be back to a scrub qb in 1-2 years.

Many folks still have no issue putting him top3 in dynasty, despite those concerns, and despite being 28 during next season.

Of course, he's proven it for more than 1 year, but it's just something to take into account
Click to expand...
I'd have Thomas below OBJ, Brown, Julio, Calvin and Dez. In the same tier as Evans, watkins, and Benjamin.

 
Soulfly3 said:
anyways... I started this thread as a response to the sudden group think that Odell Beckham is the clear cut no1 dynasty WR

Yet, despite Mike Evans having a near historical rookie year w a CRAP qb stable (if not for ODB), some folks are saying he's behind TY Hilton?

just wanted some discussion going... the disparity between beckham and evans seems to huge on this forum, and I see no justification for it
Click to expand...
well, there's a huge target disparity, for one thing.

and you keep citing the crap qb situation in tb like it's a good thing -- it's not.

I don't like to cite some random individual guy like he's the determining factor in what everybody else does, but as illustration, randy moss was pretty good as a rookie and I think he lost 6 td in his 2nd year.

calvin johnson had the following td totals, starting from his rookie year - 4, 12, 5, 12, 16, 5

and you even just mentioned vincent jackson and his 2 td

the point being, I'm leery of a guy whose points are so heavily invested in the td, as the td can fluctuate so much

 
Soulfly3 said:
BroadwayG said:
Soulfly3 said:
BroadwayG said:
Got him right behind TY Hilton in my rankings
Click to expand...
behind? wow... Id love to hear your POV
Click to expand...
His situation is awful. Abnormal TD count is not sustainable. Sophomore slump is almost a lock. Where's Mike Williams and his 11TDs as a rookie today?
Click to expand...
The 101st pick in the draft, Mike Williams?

There's a slight difference in perspective Im looking at here.
Click to expand...
Draft slot means nothing.

 
Soulfly3 said:
matttyl said:
How are you going to adjust your thoughts with Winston chucking the ball?
Click to expand...
I'd have to see how well Winston can hack it in the NFL

How much worse is he going to be than Glennon/McCown? That's the question... I think even if he tanks, he wont be worse than them
Click to expand...
Was Glennon really that bad?

I think Evans is top 10 for sure and arguably top 5 - but agree with fp who listed a bunch of young guys (Julio, Dez, JT, Green) that consistently put up big numbers already.

 
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fruity pebbles said:
Soulfly3 said:
BroadwayG said:
Got him right behind TY Hilton in my rankings
Click to expand...
behind? wow... Id love to hear your POV

fruity pebbles said:
Soulfly3 said:
fruity pebbles said:
Why would you take a guy #1 when there are young guys already doing what you hope he becomes?
Click to expand...
such as?
Click to expand...
Dez, Julio, AJ, Antonio, Odell.
Click to expand...
only one of those listed is even comparable in age.

of course, Im not saying the other guys are old, as they're just hitting their prime years... But Evans is 22. And put up a better Rookie Year than any of those toehr listed WRs (bar beckham), and was just as touted out of college, and drafted higher (not that being drafted earlier means he's better, but just that he was that highly rated out of college, and proved it year 1 in the NFL)
Click to expand...
Who cares. Nobody's looking out 10 years in a dynasty. 9/10 leagues would be folded and most teams turn over their entire roster every couple years anyways. If you have him above established young stars who are already putting up north of 1500 yards, you're playing all risk and minimal reward
Click to expand...
I care, and others do as well. 22 is a big difference over 26/27. The production is still there with the already-greats, but trade value will be on the downturn soon enough as it is now with Calvin (whom I traded plus the 1.9 just to get Evans). So whether you have a shorter or longer term view of dynasty league life, the age difference will matter.

I personally plan to play in my dynasty leagues for a long time, and in one, I am already at 10 years. In others, I am at 5. Accordingly, I always go in with an extreme long term view. Regardless, it often works out where the long view beats the shorter view anyway even in the relatively short-term (2-3 years).

That said, I still prefer AJ, Julio and Dez over Evans right now due to elevated risk for the newbie, but that age gap could have Evans ranked over the three as a consensus by this time next year, so I wouldn't laugh at anyone that prefers Evans at this point.

fruity pebbles said:
There was a time Hakeem Nicks was a top 3 dynasty WR. People envisioned a ten year career.
Click to expand...
This is similar to the decision of Dez/Julio/AJ Green over vets Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Brandon Marshall years ago (and to a lesser extent, Calvin Johnson a couple years ago). Those who chose the younger, less tested group are reaping the rewards now.

You win some (AJ/Julio/Dez), you lose some (Nicks). Thats true with great looking rookies and vets alike.

 
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Ernol said:
fruity pebbles said:
Soulfly3 said:
BroadwayG said:
Got him right behind TY Hilton in my rankings
Click to expand...
behind? wow... Id love to hear your POV

fruity pebbles said:
Soulfly3 said:
fruity pebbles said:
Why would you take a guy #1 when there are young guys already doing what you hope he becomes?
Click to expand...
such as?
Click to expand...
Dez, Julio, AJ, Antonio, Odell.
Click to expand...
only one of those listed is even comparable in age.

of course, Im not saying the other guys are old, as they're just hitting their prime years... But Evans is 22. And put up a better Rookie Year than any of those toehr listed WRs (bar beckham), and was just as touted out of college, and drafted higher (not that being drafted earlier means he's better, but just that he was that highly rated out of college, and proved it year 1 in the NFL)
Click to expand...
Who cares. Nobody's looking out 10 years in a dynasty. 9/10 leagues would be folded and most teams turn over their entire roster every couple years anyways. If you have him above established young stars who are already putting up north of 1500 yards, you're playing all risk and minimal reward
Click to expand...
I care, and others do as well. 22 is a big difference over 26/27. The production is still there with the already-greats, but trade value will be on the downturn soon enough as it is now with Calvin (whom I traded plus the 1.9 just to get Evans). So whether you have a shorter or longer term view of dynasty league life, the age difference will matter.

I personally plan to play in my dynasty leagues for a long time, and in one, I am already at 10 years. In others, I am at 5. Accordingly, I always go in with an extreme long term view. Regardless, it often works out where the long view beats the shorter view anyway even in the relatively short-term (2-3 years).

That said, I still prefer AJ, Julio and Dez over Evans right now due to elevated risk for the newbie, but that age gap could have Evans ranked over the three as a consensus by this time next year, so I wouldn't laugh at anyone that prefers Evans at this point.

fruity pebbles said:
There was a time Hakeem Nicks was a top 3 dynasty WR. People envisioned a ten year career.
Click to expand...
This is similar to the decision of AJ/Julio/AJ Green over vets Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Brandon Marshall years ago (and to a lesser extent, Calvin Johnson a couple years ago). Those who chose the younger, less tested group are reaping the rewards now.
Click to expand...
wat

 
Good discussion in here. I like it.

This is what I was hoping for.

All good points on both sides of the aisle. Agree with some, some I don't...

 
BroadwayG said:
Draft slot means nothing.
Click to expand...
No, it doesn't.

But my point is this.

Mike Evans was drafted #7 overall last year. Why? Because coming out of college his measurables were elite and teams wanted what he could provide.

Mike Williams, who was cited as the comparison, was taken #101 overall... So his monster rookie year caught EVERYONE by surprise... But, it ended being a fluke, didnt it? Which was easier to swallow as his draft spot indicated he shouldnt have been thought of to egt those numbers as a rookie.

Mike Evans is expected to get great numbers based on where he was drafted, and he lived up to it.

It's 100% reasonable to assume Evans rookie year is not a fluke, whereas it's 100% reasonable to understand why Williams' was.

 
SayWhat? said:
My biggest concern when talking about his rookie campaign was that almost HALF of his production in terms of yards and TD's came in that torrid 3 game stretch he had mid-year. Granted, those are some impressive games. But I do have concern that despite the horrid play by his QB and team in general, he only topped 60 yards receiving in 2 of his other 12 games. That's pretty horrible, even for a rookie in a bad situation.

Again, I like Evans and think he's got some serious upside. I just don't know that he's on the elite tier of dynasty WR's right now, and he's definitely not in the conversation for #1.
Click to expand...
Isn't that the Tampa way? Remember when Doug Martin put up 25% of his production in one game against Oakland but we couldn't use that as an outlier because "it still happened". Dougie Fresh was an instant top 5 dynasty RB, etc, etc.

With that being said, I see Evans as a guy who can be like Andre Johnson. His size and game will have him in the top dozen or so all the time and here and there he will probably poke up to the top, but never be "another year, another Evans at the top" kind of guy.

 
Shutout said:
With that being said, I see Evans as a guy who can be like Andre Johnson. His size and game will have him in the top dozen or so all the time and here and there he will probably poke up to the top, but never be "another year, another Evans at the top" kind of guy.
Click to expand...
I can see this if TBs qb situation always stinks.

If Jameis or Mariota works out or trade for a solid QB... He will be the guy always hovering top3-5, imo.

 
BroadwayG said:
Soulfly3 said:
BroadwayG said:
Soulfly3 said:
BroadwayG said:
Got him right behind TY Hilton in my rankings
Click to expand...
behind? wow... Id love to hear your POV
Click to expand...
His situation is awful. Abnormal TD count is not sustainable. Sophomore slump is almost a lock. Where's Mike Williams and his 11TDs as a rookie today?
Click to expand...
The 101st pick in the draft, Mike Williams?

There's a slight difference in perspective Im looking at here.
Click to expand...
Draft slot means nothing.
Click to expand...
x It's the best indicator of future success there is. By far.

 
I know it's not an important stat, but interesting nonetheless.

1.58 fantasy points per target last season for Beckham

1.44 fantasy points per target last season for Evans

--------------------

1.36 Antonio Brown

1.2 Julio Jones

1.68 Dez Bryant

 
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Soulfly3 said:
I know it's not an important stat, but interesting nonetheless.

1.58 fantasy points per target last season for Beckham

1.44 fantasy points per target last season for Evans
Click to expand...
link?

Not asking because I don't believe you, I'm curious to see where others stack up in this stat.

 
Sabertooth said:
BroadwayG said:
Soulfly3 said:
BroadwayG said:
Soulfly3 said:
BroadwayG said:
Got him right behind TY Hilton in my rankings
Click to expand...
behind? wow... Id love to hear your POV
Click to expand...
His situation is awful. Abnormal TD count is not sustainable. Sophomore slump is almost a lock. Where's Mike Williams and his 11TDs as a rookie today?
Click to expand...
The 101st pick in the draft, Mike Williams?

There's a slight difference in perspective Im looking at here.
Click to expand...
Draft slot means nothing.
Click to expand...
x It's the best indicator of future success there is. By far.
Click to expand...
Only from a starting point around the beginning of the rookie year, and then mostly because the hefty contractual obligations carry with them a fairly strong guarantee of opportunity. It's overtaken by "past performance" as the best indicator really, really quickly. But as he was intending to illustrate, I think, even that isn't necessarily all that reliable.

 
Soulfly3 said:
I know it's not an important stat, but interesting nonetheless.



1.58 fantasy points per target last season for Beckham

1.44 fantasy points per target last season for Evans



--------------------



1.36 Antonio Brown

1.2 Julio Jones

1.68 Dez Bryant
Click to expand...
Not only is that stat not important, it's probably unsustainable for most players.

 
FUBAR said:
Soulfly3 said:
I know it's not an important stat, but interesting nonetheless.

1.58 fantasy points per target last season for Beckham

1.44 fantasy points per target last season for Evans



--------------------



1.36 Antonio Brown

1.2 Julio Jones

1.68 Dez Bryant
Click to expand...
Not only is that stat not important, it's probably unsustainable for most players.
Click to expand...
what makes you say that?

 
SayWhat? said:
My biggest concern when talking about his rookie campaign was that almost HALF of his production in terms of yards and TD's came in that torrid 3 game stretch he had mid-year. Granted, those are some impressive games. But I do have concern that despite the horrid play by his QB and team in general, he only topped 60 yards receiving in 2 of his other 12 games. That's pretty horrible, even for a rookie in a bad situation.

Again, I like Evans and think he's got some serious upside. I just don't know that he's on the elite tier of dynasty WR's right now, and he's definitely not in the conversation for #1.
Click to expand...
Wow. That really stands out. Wouldn't have known that.

 
Soulfly3 said:
Shutout said:
With that being said, I see Evans as a guy who can be like Andre Johnson. His size and game will have him in the top dozen or so all the time and here and there he will probably poke up to the top, but never be "another year, another Evans at the top" kind of guy.
Click to expand...
I can see this if TBs qb situation always stinks.

If Jameis or Mariota works out or trade for a solid QB... He will be the guy always hovering top3-5, imo.
Click to expand...
Conversely, if Winston (or Mariota, whichever TB selects) doesn't pan out, it's very possible that QB will remain the starter for 2/3/4 years thus stunting Evans growth.

 
Soulfly3 said:
anyways... I started this thread as a response to the sudden group think that Odell Beckham is the clear cut no1 dynasty WR

Yet, despite Mike Evans having a near historical rookie year w a CRAP qb stable (if not for ODB), some folks are saying he's behind TY Hilton?

just wanted some discussion going... the disparity between beckham and evans seems to huge on this forum, and I see no justification for it
Click to expand...
I don't play dynasty, but in my 2 keeper leagues I have Evans in one (keep 2) and ODB in the other and I love both of them.

 
Spike said:
SayWhat? said:
My biggest concern when talking about his rookie campaign was that almost HALF of his production in terms of yards and TD's came in that torrid 3 game stretch he had mid-year. Granted, those are some impressive games. But I do have concern that despite the horrid play by his QB and team in general, he only topped 60 yards receiving in 2 of his other 12 games. That's pretty horrible, even for a rookie in a bad situation.

Again, I like Evans and think he's got some serious upside. I just don't know that he's on the elite tier of dynasty WR's right now, and he's definitely not in the conversation for #1.
Click to expand...
Wow. That really stands out. Wouldn't have known that.
Click to expand...
I don't think that it is really that big of a deal. Honestly, I think that has more to do with the putrid QB play. Just for fun, I looked up Dez as the first guy who came to mind and arbitrarily set his mark as over 63 yards and he eclipsed that only 11 times in his first 27 games. Not that far from 5 of 15 and Romo is a slightly better QB.

It was a rookie season and by all accounts it was a great first season. Also, if you dig deeper, he had 45-55 yards in 8 of the 10 games he missed 60 yards, which is one bad pass/drop from 60 in all of those games. What made him very consistent in FF was that in those 8 45-55 yard games, he also had 5 TDs. Heck in the 2 games under 45 yards, he also had 1 TD, so he was still pretty consistent with the floor. His worst PPR game all year was 8 points (2 8s and 2 9s). That isn't bad at all for a rookie WR. Dez had a great year and had two 9 point PPR games, 1 10 and 1 11 even with 16 TDs.

 
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