Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
I don't own him anywhere but I was more worried about him breaking down soon because of all the carries than his contract.
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RB Derrick Henry, BAL (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
He barely played his first two seasons. I know he had a lot of HS and college carries but that was easymode for him, and he's been extremely healthy. Waldman (or was it Harstad) has done a lot of research showing that for an elite RB, large workloads are just a sign of more large workloads to come, and aren't a detriment. The best RBs string together a bunch of high workload seasons and keep doing it until they're too old, injured, or their skills deteriorate. There's no magic number and nothing inherently bad about large workloads if the player is elite.
Staying behind this OL and having a team who knows how to utilize him committed to justifying his contract is a great situation and takes all the guesswork out of his future, for a while. Definitely a positive.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
For a player that's a significant part of a team's offense, I think that's a pretty reasonable deal.kutta said:
jtd13
Footballguy
Deamon
Footballguy
Definitely good for dynasty. Sorry, I should have clarified redraft.
Is it more the
"he's happy now and will run hard", "They will use him lots to justify the investment"
or the
"he doesn't have to prove anything so won't run as hard", "they have him for 4 years and won't run him into the ground as much"
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
There's a plethora of RBs available next offseason. A bunch of them IMO are gonna wish they did what Henry did and got something done.
He's very well educated and not in a common situation. He's spent time with a lot of famous RBs ever since HS. They want to meet the kid that broke their record and he picks their brain etc. Besides all that (and the list is woah!) he has become very close with Eddie George and spent hours with Earl Campbell where he's now become something of an advisor to him.
He's an adonis with his own trainer and nutritionist.
If ya follow him on social media, you'll see "getting that rest" "working on legs but not arms today" "kale(can't recall some food) is key to recovery" and a pic of a shake I remember him using that massage thing on his hammy and a slew of questions like are you injured, no ya gotta loosen it up after leg day.
If you just sorta follow and observe it's "wow, you've been taught well."
His first RB coach in the NFL was Barry's old coach and people like to point that out too but it almost takes away by not pointing out that he's been fortunate to have so many legends advise him.
Why is ADP still playing? Why did Gore last a million years? How did George get 1000 so many years? Why did Campbell break down and others didn't? I get why people would wonder this, absolutely, but at this point it's like you're naming guys that took the time to meet with Henry and he learned from them.
Last year was a video call with OJ Simpson and I forget how Jim Brown and he spoke.
Derrick is what never happens but we always act like it does. It's kind of funny that way. The best peewee player, high school player, college player, doesn't usually wind up the best at his position in the NFL.
He's got awesome stories, an incredible amount of collectibles from legends, and just the right amount of humble pie on top of him enjoying his success.
az_prof
Footballguy
This was a fair deal to both Titans and Henry and solidies Henry's dynasty value.
Titans lock up a key player around whom the offense is built but they can get rid of him in two years if he doesn't perform.
Henry gets security of knowing he will make at least 25 M over next two years and more if he stays productive and healthy plus he gets to enjoy the continuity of being on a team that knows how to use him well.
Dynasty owners now know that as long as Henry is healthy his high usage will continue.
Titans lock up a key player around whom the offense is built but they can get rid of him in two years if he doesn't perform.
Henry gets security of knowing he will make at least 25 M over next two years and more if he stays productive and healthy plus he gets to enjoy the continuity of being on a team that knows how to use him well.
Dynasty owners now know that as long as Henry is healthy his high usage will continue.
EthnicFury
Footballguy
Hope I’m not jinxing anything, but it seems like he could be one of those guys whose age curve looks a little different than normal just because for a “power back” he doesn’t seem to take big hits that much. Which makes sense, because flying in and blasting him high up is a losing proposition for a lot of guys most often in a position on the field to do so.
He could be at higher risk for a leg injury In a given season from guys diving at his legs more often, but I’m not sure he is on the same timeline for general breakdown due to aggregate pounding.
He could be at higher risk for a leg injury In a given season from guys diving at his legs more often, but I’m not sure he is on the same timeline for general breakdown due to aggregate pounding.
jm192
Footballguy
I think it's overstated.
His rookie season, he had 110 carries. His 2nd season 176. 2018 he had 215. This is the 1st season he broke 300 carries. Dion Lewis was coming in on 3rd downs often the last 2 seasons. He's not taking a lot of those pass protection hits from LB's. Lastly, he often delivers more punishment than he takes. He's often the guy slamming into the defender and getting dragged down through the collison.
If they keep using him like they did in 2019, he'll start to wear down. But he's a ferarri, and 2019 was the first time they really took him out of the garage.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
These kinds of articles make no sense to me. " Henry had his best season in the NFL in 2019, rushing for 1540 yards and 16 touchdowns on 303 carries. He averaged 20.2 rushing attempts per game and averaged an incredible 5.1 yards per attempt.".
What has he done to make anyone believe he wlll be outside the top 5?
az_prof
Footballguy
I guess if you think that was his career year and that he will regress to the mean then you might downgrade him. Some might think that his carries will go down and that the team will try to have a more balanced pass-rush offense. Personally, I don't think they go away from the run much if any because they had success and I don't see anyone else taking carries. If anything I except him to be used a bit more in the passing game.
az_prof
Footballguy
Why did you reject? I have Henry and Cook and I think I would have taken either offer. I love Henry and Cook but Henry is middle aged for a RB and doesn't catch much and Cook has had injury issues so I would see that a good deal. Hopkins is nice but I don't see him as a guy who will a consistent top ten WR.
Why? The only real loss was Casey. Ryan is offset(and then some) by Joseph and Fulton. Add in a fully healthy Jeffrey Simmons and another rusher(albeit an overrated one) in Vic Beasley and I'm seeing a defense that moved sideways more than anything, with top-10 upside if some young guys(Simmons, Landry, Evans, Fulton) step up.
Also, might mean nothing, but Henry had his 2nd best game against KC last year, and that was his only game the Titans game up 30+ points in.
Casey was a human roadblock that always had at least 2 linemen on him. HOF caliber, team HOF....whatever, just big loss. Simmons is an unknown but yeah I get his promise and potential but people are talking like Simmons-->Casey is a wash. They were both there last year. They lost a stud DL and replaced him with Crawford who is a 4-3 DE. They play nickel a lot so he'd be fine there but he's not the beefy 3-4 DE that they need.
Beasley hasn't done squat and wants to be a minister and he's a speed rusher weak against the run- like Landry.
Finch is on the Raiders
Ryan was their top CB who regularly covered the top WR. They can say he lost a step or his time had come or...but it's like people are ignoring that they chose him over Butler and Adoree more often than not last year with the top assignments.
Fulton has not looked good.
Depth CBs have been playing like depth CBs- make a play, get burned, over n over. They had 5 CBs with starting experience last year.
Simmons and Adoree must be the stars they were drafted to be or else....big difference. The Titans have been a top 10 D sometimes top 5 many times throughout the last few years. They'd crumble in week whatever and the final stats wouldn't show it, but if you were a week to week follower you'd know they were stout. Last year, the D kept them in several games while the offense learned under Smith. I do think something clicked with Smith and the O will be good but I don't think this D can bail him out if he's got more learning to do.
The Titans followed a very predictable pattern last year- run a lot of Henry in the first, Lewis to start the second with Henry maybe not getting carries, Henry beasted in the third, with Tannehill rocking in the 4th Q. To reword that, they were poor in the first halves of games. I think it was like week 16 til they scored an opening drive TD or first Q TD or....I forget now. The second halves were brilliant but the first half was tolerable because the D kept it close enough. What happens if they can't?
Henry had 669 yards in the third Q and around 300 in the other Qs. They were banking on him smashing a D after half time. What if the score is 21-3?
Tannehill had 234 attempts when they were tied or behind, only 52 when they were ahead.
It does lend to some concern
The Frankman
Footballguy
Down game for Henry.
FUBAR
Footballguy
There's risk of course, but you don't bench Henry (in the vast majority of leagues, unless you're incredibly stacked)
Pretty sure that decision is going to be made for us. I’d be surprised if they played at this point.
That's the thing....someone could have a decent alternative playing in tonight's game like Ronald Jones. This covid messing with games isn't fun.
FUBAR
Footballguy
That's a fair point. I don't know if I start Jones over the chance that Henry plays, but if you don't have a halfway decent 3rd option it would probably be the smart play.
tombonneau
Footballguy
I'd start Jones. I'm shocked anyone has Henry in their lineup. I've moved on. I'd put it at 0.005% chance Titans play this week.
Wrigley
Footballguy
They're already talking about moving the game till Monday or Tuesday. The NFL isn't changing their stripes. They are determined to play games. Hell, last week NE turned up positive and only cleared right before the weekend and got in the game. Nobody should underestimate the NFL here.
All that said, I could see TN being a total disaster either Monday or Tuesday night not having done diddly for two weeks and being minus all kinds of offensive weapons/players.
I'm the comish in my league and while we've instituted a "name an alternative" policy, I'm starting to wonder if I just stick with alternatives regardless (such as Mostert, L. Bell).
All that said, I could see TN being a total disaster either Monday or Tuesday night not having done diddly for two weeks and being minus all kinds of offensive weapons/players.
I'm the comish in my league and while we've instituted a "name an alternative" policy, I'm starting to wonder if I just stick with alternatives regardless (such as Mostert, L. Bell).
Wrigley
Footballguy
The Finist
Footballguy
While i agree that the game likely gets played this week, i do not believe we are at the point where the NFL has established stripes on the issue.
Remember that the NFL has already also cancelled a game and reshuffled the schedule once involving the Titans.
tombonneau
Footballguy
Where the NFL *has* established stripes is in tar and feathering players/teams to make examples. There is a lengthly history of this. So if they truly feel (or want to make it look like they feel) that TEN made egregious violations of CV policy, then some kind of epic smackdown of a forfeited game would not surprise anyone. That's more on brand for the NFL than putting player health in jeopardy for money (which is already itself pretty on brand).
Fat Nick
Footballguy
So my situation is I would normally start Henry and Connor at RB, and flex Dionte Johnson. Now, because of the uncertainty, I'm going to start Connor and Montgomery (Thurs game) at RB, which means if the Titans do play, I'll flex Henry vs. Johnson. Not ideal, but not horrible.
I honestly think they'll play if at all possible though. This whole thing is a real S-show. There are a lot of worms they open if they make the Titans forefit
Just my 2 cents...
I honestly think they'll play if at all possible though. This whole thing is a real S-show. There are a lot of worms they open if they make the Titans forefit
- The Bills (and Titans) players won't get paid for the game per revised COVID rules: “If any games are canceled (and not later played) during the 2020 season once the regular season has begun, Clubs will not be obligated to pay the salary protected by applicable 2020 Guaranteed Salary during the 2020 season that would have covered salary for any cancelled games, provided that the foregoing does not apply to any salary guarantee, signing bonus, roster bonus, or reporting bonus earned but not paid prior to cancellation.”
- The Steelers would also have some pretty solid grounds to ask for a forfeit from their game last weekend - and the same issue would hold.
- The only other thing they could do is delay the playoffs and play the game in week 18 - which, while not the NFL's concern, really screws up fantasy.
Just my 2 cents...
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