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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Leonard Fournette, Bucs

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The Florida Times-Union suggests the Jaguars aren't a lock to pick up Leonard Fournette's fifth-year option.

Fournette rebounded with the best season of his career after a down 2018 clouded his status in Jacksonville. It should be an easy decision to exercise his option, but Fournette carries a $10.1 million price tag as a former top-10 pick and comes with injury risks that could guarantee his salary. With limited cap space and Fournette's spotty conditioning, it's possible the Jags let him play out his rookie deal before addressing his contract next offseason.

SOURCE: Florida Times Union

Feb 15, 2020, 1:42 PM ET

 

 

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ESPN's Adam Schefter reports the Jaguars have had trade discussions with other teams regarding RB Leonard Fournette.

Fournette is due $4.16 million in base salary in 2020. Last season marked the first instance of Fournette's career that he didn't miss multiple games. The result was plenty of production, as the former No. 4 overall pick posted season-long 265-1,152-3 rushing and 76-522-0 receiving lines. Of course, things usually didn't come easily. He ranked 39th in success rate among 45 qualified backs (Football Outsiders), and his average of 5.2 yards per target was higher than only Tarik Cohen among 38 players with triple-digit targets. Fournette possesses big-play ability and plenty of power, but it's a stretch to call him a reliable three-down back.

SOURCE: Adam Schefter on Twitter

Apr 18, 2020, 5:57 PM ET

 

 

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The Jags haven’t been great during his time, but Fournette’s career ypc is 3.95. That is rotten. 

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2 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

well that could be interesting

Maybe, if he goes to a better offense, though I can't see any situation better than his current one, from a workload standpoint.

Its also likely that the Jags have finally realized that Fournette isn't very good. I see maybe 2-4 teams where he would be an upgrade over their current starter, and probably a half dozen rookie RB's I'd rather have, which the Jags probably see as well.

I doubt Fournette would fetch anything better than a day 3 pick.

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4 hours ago, Edgar said:

The Jags haven’t been great during his time, but Fournette’s career ypc is 3.95. That is rotten. 

4.3 yard average for the 2019, best of his career, that has to be a plus.

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33 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

sell Morimer, sell!! sell! sell!

Yep, I still own one share and each passing day I'm willing to sell for less. My other share I was thrilled to get Sanders straight up for Fournette, many thought I sold low......

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, dmac37 said:

Yep, I still own one share and each passing day I'm willing to sell for less. My other share I was thrilled to get Sanders straight up for Fournette, many thought I sold low......

No way you sold low lMO

What draft pick do you think Fournette is worth?

Edited by JoeSteeler

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1 hour ago, JoeSteeler said:

No way you sold low lMO

What draft pick do you think Fournette is worth?

 

9 hours ago, dmac37 said:

Yep, I still own one share and each passing day I'm willing to sell for less. My other share I was thrilled to get Sanders straight up for Fournette, many thought I sold low......

If that is Miles Sanders you did great.

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9 hours ago, Kevrunner said:

4.3 yard average for the 2019, best of his career, that has to be a plus.

Among 36 RBs with 40+ targets for the season, Fournette ranked 27th in yards per catch, 30th in yards per target, 25th in yards per route run. Despite a career-best 4.3 yards per rush, Football Outsiders rated Fournette just 34th among 45 qualifying RBs in both main rushing-efficiency metrics -- below average/replacement-level performance in each category. Pro Football Focus similarly graded Fournette just 41st in rushing among the 45 RBs with 100+ attempts in 2019.

Over his 3 seasons in the league, Fournette has touched the ball a lot when healthy. He ranks 4th in that span in carries per game and 3rd in touches per game. But among the top 100 RBs in total carries since the start of 2017, Fournette ranks just 66th in non-PPR points per touch and 63rd in PPR points per touch.

In short, he has feasted totally on touch volume.

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46 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

 

If that is Miles Sanders you did great.

Yes it was Miles Sanders and some thought I should have been able to get something else thrown in. Fournette is still high up there in some dynasty rankings but as JohnnyU has pointed out Fournette has produced by sheer volume.

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10 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

sell Morimer, sell!! sell! sell!

I dunno. He's gonna get moved for peanuts, so at this point an owner may be better off just holding and see where he ends up. 

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Just now, MAC_32 said:

I dunno. He's gonna get moved for peanuts, so at this point an owner may be better off just holding and see where he ends up. 

I believe he still carries enough value (for the moment) to get fair value, but yes, that window will shrink.

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The off-shoot of this is if Fournette gets dealt then Jax becomes a prime landing spot for one of the rookies...Armstead maybe worth a pick-up if he is on your wire just in-case this does happen and the Jags don't go after one of the top-tier rookies.

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8 minutes ago, Boston said:

The off-shoot of this is if Fournette gets dealt then Jax becomes a prime landing spot for one of the rookies...Armstead maybe worth a pick-up if he is on your wire just in-case this does happen and the Jags don't go after one of the top-tier rookies.

Given their rebuild I think it'd be smart of them to wait until round 3 then pull the trigger. If one of the top 5 falls, great. If not then maybe wait on Moss, Dillon, Eno, etc round 4. Regardless I would not expect Armstead to be much of anything. If they draft a tier 2 back then this becomes a prime location for someone like Freeman. 

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5 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Given their rebuild I think it'd be smart of them to wait until round 3 then pull the trigger. If one of the top 5 falls, great. If not then maybe wait on Moss, Dillon, Eno, etc round 4. Regardless I would not expect Armstead to be much of anything. If they draft a tier 2 back then this becomes a prime location for someone like Freeman. 

I think you underestimate Armstead.

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Given their rebuild I think it'd be smart of them to wait until round 3 then pull the trigger. If one of the top 5 falls, great. If not then maybe wait on Moss, Dillon, Eno, etc round 4. Regardless I would not expect Armstead to be much of anything. If they draft a tier 2 back then this becomes a prime location for someone like Freeman. 

If they are gonna go with a young QB like Minshew they need to put him in a position to succeed...if Fournette gets dealt that backfield is a black hole...I would not be surprised at all to see them figure out a way to get one of those top-shelf RBs...they have 2 #1's, 3 #4's, 2 #5's and 2 #6's so they have a lot of room to manuever (their #2 is pick 42 which is a prime spot to grab one of those RBs)...it would not be too difficult for them to figure out a way to end up with a possible franchise RB to go with their young QB. 

Edited by Boston

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1 minute ago, JohnnyU said:

I think you underestimate Armstead.

I think he's a backup. The only question is backup to who. 

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Just now, MAC_32 said:

I think he's a backup. The only question is backup to who. 

That is a premature assumption.

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1 minute ago, Boston said:

If they are gonna go with a young QB like Minshew they need to put him in a position to succeed...if Fournette gets dealt that backfield is a black hole...I would not be surprised at all to see them figure out a way to get one of those top-shelf RBs...they have 2 #1's, 3 #4's, 2 #5's and 2 #6's so they have a lot of room to manuever (their #2 is pick 42 which is a prime spot to grab one of those RBs)...it would nor be too difficult for them to figure out a way to end up with a possible franchise RB to go with their young QB. 

Right. That's why I think the ideal scenario is a top 5 rb this year. I think pick 42 is bad value for rb on a rebuild though. Especially with how deep this class is. Get foundation pieces at premium positions then come back to rb. If you miss the run then execute a vet contingency plan like Freeman. Let Armstead and round 4 rookie duke it out behind him. 

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I don’t think he’s a backup but do think he’s the hammer in a committee. Think we’ve seen his peak, fantasy wise. Also don’t think he’s gonna see a big contract. He’ll be 26 at the end of this season. His running style, he’ll be about used up imo. 

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2 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

That is a premature assumption.

Key words - 'I think.' I ain't assuming anything. 

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15 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Right. That's why I think the ideal scenario is a top 5 rb this year. I think pick 42 is bad value for rb on a rebuild though. Especially with how deep this class is. Get foundation pieces at premium positions then come back to rb. If you miss the run then execute a vet contingency plan like Freeman. Let Armstead and round 4 rookie duke it out behind him. 

I guess where we disagree is that I think 42 is great value for a Swift, Taylor or Dobbins...gives Minshew a potential franchise back to grow with.

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2 minutes ago, Boston said:

I guess where we disagree is that I think 42 is great value for a Swift, Taylor or Dobbins...gives Minshew a potential franchise back to grow with.

No, we agree about that. I just don't agree it's a great value for Jacksonville. They are weak everywhere. I think they need to use their top 50 picks at premium positions; not rb. Positions that generally cost more and age better. I think the talent available at those positions are comparable to rb. 

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Just now, MAC_32 said:

No, we agree about that. I just don't agree it's a great value for Jacksonville. They are weak everywhere. I think they need to use their top 50 picks at premium positions; not rb. Positions that generally cost more and age better. I think the talent available at those positions are comparable to rb. 

I hear ya and if they had a veteran QB I would be thinking differently but IMO is they need to put Minshew in the best position to succeed...if he is legit their rebuild gets a lot easier...I think a quality RB only helps his development.

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1 minute ago, Boston said:

I hear ya and if they had a veteran QB I would be thinking differently but IMO is they need to put Minshew in the best position to succeed...if he is legit their rebuild gets a lot easier...I think a quality RB only helps his development.

It does. So does a not terrible OL. And WR's beyond Chark. Value is there at both IOL and WR early round 2. 

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7 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

It does. So does a not terrible OL. And WR's beyond Chark. Value is there at both IOL and WR early round 2. 

Not that it is great but I think their WR spot is in far better shape then RB if they deal Fournette...also, WR is the position that is deepest in this draft so that is the position you can really wait on...O line I have no gripe with because that definitely helps in Minshew’s development...bottom-line is they enough picks to accomplish a lot in this draft and putting Minshew in a position to succeed will go along way towards their rebuild.

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8 minutes ago, Boston said:

Not that it is great but I think their WR spot is in far better shape then RB if they deal Fournette...also, WR is the position that is deepest in this draft so that is the position you can really wait on...O line I have no gripe with because that definitely helps in Minshew’s development...bottom-line is they enough picks to accomplish a lot in this draft and putting Minshew in a position to succeed will go along way towards their rebuild.

WR is deep, but it isn't that deep with outside #2's. That should be a great spot for one of them. With both Cole and Westbrook free agents at season's end they are not in a good spot at the position. 

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3 hours ago, Faust said:

God no but I would not be surprised if it happened. Maybe if the Jags really want a QB they can offer Fournette as part of a package for pick 3. 

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Detroit was my first thought as an upgrade to Bo Scarbrough who had some success last year. Fournette hasn't been great, but he reminds me of Jamal Lewis in that in the right situation, he has 2000 yard potential.

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5 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

God no but I would not be surprised if it happened. Maybe if the Jags really want a QB they can offer Fournette as part of a package for pick 3. 

Patricia wants a ground and pound attack. Just trade Stafford. 

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10 hours ago, Nero said:

Detroit was my first thought as an upgrade to Bo Scarbrough who had some success last year. Fournette hasn't been great, but he reminds me of Jamal Lewis in that in the right situation, he has 2000 yard potential.

I like that comparison.  

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16 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

God no but I would not be surprised if it happened. Maybe if the Jags really want a QB they can offer Fournette as part of a package for pick 3. 

4th round pick or later or else I don’t want him. Happy to take on the contract and use him as 1-2 with kerryon, but has to be for a later rd pick. 

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

4th round pick or later or else I don’t want him. Happy to take on the contract and use him as 1-2 with kerryon, but has to be for a later rd pick. 

Yeah especially considering he’s in the last year of his deal so he’s  not even that cheap. I would take him as part of a deal to trade back. Give the Jags the 3rd pick for their 9th, 20th and Fournette. 
 

Though Fournette seems like a personality issue as well so he may be totally off the Lions radar.

Edited by Ilov80s

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5 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Yeah especially considering he’s in the last year of his deal so he’s  not even that cheap. I would take him as part of a deal to trade back. Give the Jags the 3rd pick for their 9th, 20th and Fournette. 
 

Though Fournette seems like a personality issue as well so he may be totally off the Lions radar.

I would love that kind of deal. I’m not sure it makes sense for JAX, but it’s fun to think about. 

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13 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

I would love that kind of deal. I’m not sure it makes sense for JAX, but it’s fun to think about. 

Depends what Jax thinks about the QB position and prospects. 

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24 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Yeah especially considering he’s in the last year of his deal so he’s  not even that cheap. I would take him as part of a deal to trade back. Give the Jags the 3rd pick for their 9th, 20th and Fournette. 
 

Though Fournette seems like a personality issue as well so he may be totally off the Lions radar.

He's also not that great of a player

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, need2know said:

He's also not that great of a player

Yeah thats a problem. I saw tweets saying the Chiefs should go after him and then Evan Silva (rightly) saying Fournette probably makes the Chiefs offense worse.

Edited by Ilov80s
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1 minute ago, Ilov80s said:

Yeah thats a problem. I saw tweets saying the Chiefs should go after him and the Evan Silva (rightly) saying Fournette probably makes the Chiefs offense worse.

He's been overrated his whole pro career.   I don't get why some people still rank him as a top rb.   Between his crap production, injuries, and attitude i would think most smart teams would stay away.

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Though I will say in his defense, he played pretty well last year on a very bad offense. He was 5th in the NFL in % of rushes against a stacked box and 51st in % against a light box. So he wasn’t put in very favorable situations but still averaged career best 4.3 ypc and caught 76 passes. The Jags just couldn’t score and he had bad TD luck. 

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27 minutes ago, need2know said:

He's been overrated his whole pro career.   I don't get why some people still rank him as a top rb.   Between his crap production, injuries, and attitude i would think most smart teams would stay away.

I don't think anyone sees him as a top RB which is why he won't cost much...that being said he could be a very nice piece of a RBBC...put him with Singletary in Buffalo or on the Chiefs or with the Seahawks and he could be a real effective player.  

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18 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

God no but I would not be surprised if it happened. Maybe if the Jags really want a QB they can offer Fournette as part of a package for pick 3. 

If they could land him cheaply, I think a Fournette/Johnson RBBC is a pretty nice mix.

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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

Yeah especially considering he’s in the last year of his deal so he’s  not even that cheap. I would take him as part of a deal to trade back. Give the Jags the 3rd pick for their 9th, 20th and Fournette. 
 

Though Fournette seems like a personality issue as well so he may be totally off the Lions radar.

If the Lions trade for him would they have the ability to pick up the 5th year option he has as a first round pick? Although as a no. 4 overall pick even that may be cost prohibitive. 

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

If the Lions trade for him would they have the ability to pick up the 5th year option he has as a first round pick? Although as a no. 4 overall pick even that may be cost prohibitive. 

I (kind of) understand trading a day three pick for him. It's team dependent, but if I squint hard enough I get it. I think Freeman's better, but they're very different RB's. In no world could you convince me he is worth the 5th year option though. If they can even use it. 

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ESPN's Josina Anderson reports the Buccaneers aren't expected to be a taker for Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette.

This makes sense considering the Buccaneers have consistently stated they're looking to add RBs with high-end receiving ability. Sure, Fournette caught a bunch of passes in 2020, but his efficiency was awful compared to pretty much every other high-usage receiver. It seems unlikely there will be many potential suitors willing to give the Jaguars a decent draft pick. There also doesn't appear to be a RB-needy team lining up to give Fournette a massive role and/or future contract. We shall see what happens.

SOURCE: Josina Anderson on Twitter

Apr 20, 2020, 8:56 AM ET

 

 

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NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports "the Jaguars had trade talks centered around RB Leonard Fournette for more than a month, and they circled back with teams in the last three days."

It's essentially the same report that ESPN's Adam Schefter released two days ago. The Jaguars are hoping to shop their inefficient plunger of a back, but it remains to be seen what sort of interest will emerge. At a minimum, it seems unlikely that someone willingly signs up to trade a high-round pick to make Fournette the focal piece of their offense. Perhaps Fournette could provide value as a powerful committee back that complements a more-proven pass-catching talent. Ryquell Armstead is the next-man up in Jacksonville if Fournette is ultimately traded.

SOURCE: Ian Rapoport on Twitter

Apr 20, 2020, 8:33 AM ET

 

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