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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Leonard Fournette, Jaguars

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I think it's pretty hard to project the first overall selection until we know the situation they are going to.   What if Fournette went to the Falcons or something?  Extreme example,  but it seems like the rookie draft is always better before certain players are downgraded due to who drafted them.  There are always tons of risers and fallers too.

I've been wondering for a while if the 2017 draft is getting overhyped.  It seems if a hype train runs too long the echoes magnify.   The same way a player getting hyped because of low ADP early in the draft season sees his ADP rise beyond what was actually the value that got people hyping it in the first place. 

Edited by kittenmittens

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2 hours ago, thatguy said:

How much would you guys give up to acquire the first pick in next year's rookie drafts? I'm assuming Fournette is almost a lock to be the concensus first pick... Are there any others who might challenge him for the top spot?

I've been trying to acquire firsts next year and have been looking at other RBs. Some guys in my league are hot for Leonard; if one of my current two 1sts become the 1.01, I'll probably trade it. 

I will admit I've had a Chubb boner for a while now. If he can get further back from his injury, I'd much rather have him. 

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I have the likely 1.01 in a league, and if it does end up being Fournette based on rankings, I'll gladly trade out of that spot as I'm not on his bandwagon, I'm kind of 1/4 mile behind the bandwagon but I'm catching up.  

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I have the likely 1.1 and 1.3, not to mention my own first rounder which will be toward the end... will likely hang onto both of the early picks unless someone blows me away with an offer but from the sound of things maybe the 1.1 isn't as valuable as I thought. I guess I assumed Fournette would be the easy top pick similar to Zeke this year. 

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2 hours ago, Andrew74 said:

I've been trying to acquire firsts next year and have been looking at other RBs. Some guys in my league are hot for Leonard; if one of my current two 1sts become the 1.01, I'll probably trade it. 

I will admit I've had a Chubb boner for a while now. If he can get further back from his injury, I'd much rather have him. 

Don't you mean a Chubb chubby?  Pre knee injury I liked Chubb better but I would complain about landing either of these guys next year.

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24 minutes ago, thatguy said:

I have the likely 1.1 and 1.3, not to mention my own first rounder which will be toward the end... will likely hang onto both of the early picks unless someone blows me away with an offer but from the sound of things maybe the 1.1 isn't as valuable as I thought. I guess I assumed Fournette would be the easy top pick similar to Zeke this year. 

It could be, it's just way too early to tell.  Zeke didn't hit the heights he did until Dallas drafted him.  Had he gone to CHI or TEN he wouldn't have hit nearly the value he did.

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18 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

It could be, it's just way too early to tell.  Zeke didn't hit the heights he did until Dallas drafted him.  Had he gone to CHI or TEN he wouldn't have hit nearly the value he did.

Good point.  Zeke couldn't have had a better landing spot. 

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Maybe Minny moves on from AP  and makes a move to get Fournette. That would be nice.  But as many have said,  a lot can happen between now and then.  I just remember the year AP was coming out and I was going to take him number 1 no matter where he landed.  Some talk about Fournette like he's that kind of generational talent. 

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Alabama HC Nick Saban said that he "[hasn't] really seen a guy dominate his game like [LSU junior RB Leonard Fournette] did in his last game."

 

Saban was referring to Fournette's transcendent drubbing of Ole Miss prior to the bye week. In that one, the 6-foot-1, 230-pound junior detonated the Rebs to the tune of 284 yards rushing and a trio of long touchdown gallops. "We have a tremendous amount of respect for him. He looks as good as ever, and maybe even better," Saban said. In two career match-ups with Alabama, the Tide have limited Fournette to 110 yards on 40 carries (2.75 YPC). Showdown No. 3 is set for Saturday at 8 EST.
 
 
Nov 1 - 5:51 PM

 

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Of course Nick is going to say that when he's playing against the guy coming up. Those players from LSU have been talking a lot of ####!!!

Alabama is going to try to embarrass LSU I can't wait for this game!!!

 

Tex

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1 hour ago, BigTex said:

Of course Nick is going to say that when he's playing against the guy coming up. Those players from LSU have been talking a lot of ####!!!

Alabama is going to try to embarrass LSU I can't wait for this game!!!

 

Tex

Or maybe just maybe he's saying that because it's true. I mean seriously when has a running back in recent memory had a better game than 16 carries for 280+ yards in a power conference game? He's not exactly going out on a limb by praising that performance.

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13 hours ago, thatguy said:

Or maybe just maybe he's saying that because it's true. I mean seriously when has a running back in recent memory had a better game than 16 carries for 280+ yards in a power conference game? He's not exactly going out on a limb by praising that performance.

Coach speak nothing more. How did Fournette look the last time he saw them?

Did you see Dalvin Cook? Clemson had the #8 ranked defensive in college football now they are ranked #14 and Cook ripped them to pieces.

Ole Miss is not even ranked in the top 50, Fournette is good and  he played well against them but their current defense is horrible.

Tex

Edited by BigTex

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Just my personal opinion, but I think Fournette and Cook are in a class of their own. As always though, it ultimately depends on what team both players land on. The combine will tell us a lot more about this position coming into the draft next year. I think either way, it's going to be a deep class for dynasty leagues. 

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Disclaimer: I am no scout. I watched Fournette for the fist me last night and came away very unimpressed. Yes, Alabama's defense is top notch. However I was disappointed that Leonard did not use his size and try to dish it to them. I kept wanting him to lower his pads and punish Alabama for 2-3 yards but he did not seem to be that back. I only remember Guice getting one carry in the first half and thinking that is the back that should be in there the majority of the time as he plowed through a tackle to gain 3-4 yards. Not impressed with Fournette's physicality and think that could be a big negative at the next level.

Edited by King of the Jungle
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Fournette went 17 for 35 yards.

Earlier in the year, R Williams for Arkansas (who will NOT make the NFL) went 12 for 46.

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24 minutes ago, Dedfin said:

Fournette went 17 for 35 yards.

Earlier in the year, R Williams for Arkansas (who will NOT make the NFL) went 12 for 46.

Well there ya have it, Williams is the guy to get. That and Fournette shouldn't be in the NFL.

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Fournette's physicality is a problem with his game? Umm. 

Fournette could have easily had negative yardage last night. He did pretty well coming away with the paltry yardage he had to fight for every inch of. That defense is ridiculous and LSU's OL is not very good overall.

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3 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

Disclaimer: I am no scout. I watched Fournette for the fist me last night and came away very unimpressed.

The lad just can't pack a punch.

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The Tigers just can't past the Bama line. Rubber met road last night. Fournette is a Great back, even great backs cannot overcome some impossible situations.

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I'll say it again.   Team stats/YPC says very,  very little about an individual running back.   Any analysis that makes judgements based on a naked ypc metric without even watching the runs isn't worth the time it took to type. 

Edited by kittenmittens

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Fournette doesn't shy away from contact and that's his biggest problem when he faces a team like Alabama. He just can't man handle Alabama like he does other teams and he can't play that style at the NFL level.

Run over/through the first guy then outrun the rest will only get you so for. He's a big, strong bruiser with speed no vision, no wiggle, mediocre pass blocker and not enough receptions to know if he can catch.

Fournette hasn't been the same player since he played Alabama last year.

Tex

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20 minutes ago, BigTex said:

Fournette doesn't shy away from contact and that's his biggest problem when he faces a team like Alabama. He just can't man handle Alabama like he does other teams and he can't play that style at the NFL level.

Run over/through the first guy then outrun the rest will only get you so for. He's a big, strong bruiser with speed no vision, no wiggle, mediocre pass blocker and not enough receptions to know if he can catch.

Fournette hasn't been the same player since he played Alabama last year.

Tex

So what are you tryin' to say, Tex?

:D

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8 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

Disclaimer: I am no scout. I watched Fournette for the fist me last night and came away very unimpressed. Yes, Alabama's defense is top notch. However I was disappointed that Leonard did not use his size and try to dish it to them. I kept wanting him to lower his pads and punish Alabama for 2-3 yards but he did not seem to be that back. I only remember Guice getting one carry in the first half and thinking that is the back that should be in there the majority of the time as he plowed through a tackle to gain 3-4 yards. Not impressed with Fournette's physicality and think that could be a big negative at the next level.

I felt the same...

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I must be weird because I was actually fairly impressed despite the poor numbers.  That one play where he spun and fell forward for like a 7 yard gain when there was nothing there was great.  He has a great burst and great power.  His "wiggle" isn't elite but it's pretty good and simply gets overshadowed because he's so powerful.

Whether or not he will be unable to just run through people at the next level, well, that's what some people used to say about Adrian Peterson.

The guys that can run through arm tackles with power and without slowing down are always the kind of RBs I've targeted.  There's a reason guys like Adrian Peterson break lots of long runs in the NFL and guys like Reggie Bush don't.  If an arm tackle slows you down in the NFL you're done.  Big thick legs that power through those tackles matched with good speed are what I look for and Fournette has both.

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Peterson is in a class all by himself, Fournette is not Adrian Peterson. Every year someone is compared to ADP, two years ago it was Gurley, last year it was Zeke now it's Fournette!?!? It's funny.

I've always been a fan of Fournette but he's overhyped and most certainly overrated. He's not the best in this class and not the best on his team and there's nothing special about him.

To each his own that's why we play this hobby.

Good luck,

Tex

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15 minutes ago, BigTex said:

Peterson is in a class all by himself, Fournette is not Adrian Peterson. Every year someone is compared to ADP, two years ago it was Gurley, last year it was Zeke now it's Fournette!?!? It's funny.

Point being that every player that runs through tacklers in the NFL or runs around people in the NFL was once a college player that "isn't going to be able to do that in the NFL".  There's no reason to think that Fournette won't be able to bowl people over in the NFL.  It's not like this is Cadillac Williams doing it with a tiny frame.  Fournette has the size for his power to translate to the next level.

And I'm not sure that citing yourself against probably the consensus #1 and #2 dynasty RBs right now is making the point you think it is...

Edited by FreeBaGeL

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56 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Point being that every player that runs through tacklers in the NFL or runs around people in the NFL was once a college player that "isn't going to be able to do that in the NFL".  There's no reason to think that Fournette won't be able to bowl people over in the NFL.  It's not like this is Cadillac Williams doing it with a tiny frame.  Fournette has the size for his power to translate to the next level.

And I'm not sure that citing yourself against probably the consensus #1 and #2 dynasty RBs right now is making the point you think it is...

I own both in Dynasty format on one team. How do they compare to ADP? No matter how good they are they are not ADP. Every year a running back is the best back to come out since ADP. It's come the thing to say, same thing was said about Richardson who was a bust. Same thing was said about Chubb before he got injured and I'm sure they'll be same the exact same about Barkley. Lol

Tex

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6 minutes ago, BigTex said:

I own both in Dynasty format on one team. How do they compare to ADP? No matter how good they are they are not ADP. Every year a running back is the best back to come out since ADP. It's come the thing to say, same thing was said about Richardson who was a bust. Same thing was said about Chubb before he got injured and I'm sure they'll be same the exact same about Barkley. Lol

Tex

Well saying every year a running back is the best to come since ADP is hyperbole.  You named three but Peterson came out 10 years ago, so you're missing 7.  No one was saying Knowshon Moreno or Mark Ingram are the next Peterson.

Regardless, if Fournette "only" ends up being a consensus top 3 dynasty RB like Elliot or Gurley then I'm pretty sure people who draft him will be OK with that.

But besides all that, I wasn't even saying that Fournette is going to be the next Peterson or anything of the sort.  I was just using him as an example of how silly it is to say a big powerful back in college isn't going to be able to be big and powerful and run through people in the NFL.  Using that logic there would never be anyone in the NFL that was able to run through people, yet there are.  And all of those guys were once college players where someone was saying "oh that's not going to work at the next level".  Fournette is as good at that part of the game as any of them were in college.  There's no reason to think that part of his game won't translate or can't be relied on like it was for someone like Marshawn Lynch.

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He's not the next Adrian Peterson. According to one or two scouts, he's the next Bo Jackson.

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2 hours ago, Faust said:

So sad to read this...not that I believe it is aawwwwful news (look at Ajayi right now), but still...

The combine medical check is always big, but it has just gotten much bigger for me this year.

Thanks for the updates Faust.  

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1 hour ago, ROCKET said:

I think everything will boil down to situation. What if we had Gurley in Dallas this year and Zeke in LA? Talent can only overcome so much.

I think maybe Elliot could have hit 900 yards with almost 300 carries in LA. Gurley sucked as bad as his teammates. And yeah he faced the 49ers twice.

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1 hour ago, voiceofunreason said:

I think maybe Elliot could have hit 900 yards with almost 300 carries in LA. Gurley sucked as bad as his teammates. And yeah he faced the 49ers twice.

This is an understatement.  Gurley was historically bad.  Gurley had 278 carries and didn't hit 900 yards.  The next closest guy to do such a thing was Jeremy Hill on 222 carries. 

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All I know is.... last time a "once in a decade prospect" came out named Andrew Luck, I chose Trent Richardson and RG3. 1.1 and 1.2 

the sad thing is, I was downtown in Cleveland playing Blackjack with Joe Haden and we talked about football. It was him who suggested I take Trent and RG3 ?

 

Looking at 2 top 4 picks this year (Our lottery is at Noon today) 

and 5,7,13.

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32 minutes ago, Brandon Will said:

All I know is.... last time a "once in a decade prospect" came out named Andrew Luck, I chose Trent Richardson and RG3. 1.1 and 1.2 

the sad thing is, I was downtown in Cleveland playing Blackjack with Joe Haden and we talked about football. It was him who suggested I take Trent and RG3 ?

 

Looking at 2 top 4 picks this year (Our lottery is at Noon today) 

and 5,7,13.

Put Andrew Luck on the Texans or Broncos and the kid would look like an all pro. 

Edited by pantherclub

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An NFL executive in personnel says LSU RB Leonard Fournette is "right there" with former Ohio State RB Ezekiel Elliott.

 

"He's special," the executive said of Fournette. "He's right there with (Ezekiel) Elliott. He's more powerful." You'll hear more of this comparison in the pre-Draft process. Earlier this month, NFL Media conducted a poll on the subject. In it, three of five NFL executives said they would take Fournette over Elliott. You don't see guys with Fournette's size/speed combination very often," one said. "He's a rare, rare talent. He's the most talented runner to come out since Adrian Peterson."
 
 
Source: NJ.com 
Jan 26 - 3:16 PM

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19 hours ago, Faust said:

 

An NFL executive in personnel says LSU RB Leonard Fournette is "right there" with former Ohio State RB Ezekiel Elliott.

 

"He's special," the executive said of Fournette. "He's right there with (Ezekiel) Elliott. He's more powerful." You'll hear more of this comparison in the pre-Draft process. Earlier this month, NFL Media conducted a poll on the subject. In it, three of five NFL executives said they would take Fournette over Elliott. You don't see guys with Fournette's size/speed combination very often," one said. "He's a rare, rare talent. He's the most talented runner to come out since Adrian Peterson."
 
 

They should have polled the Alabama coaching staff. I'm sure the results would be different. LOL

Tex

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LSU RB Leonard Fournette saw his carry-load decrease from 300 in 2015 to 129 in 2016.

 

Fournette was plagued by a finicky ankle injury throughout this past season. The injury forced him to miss six games. While this was not ideal for LSU during the campaign itself, it had the side benefit of knocking Fournette's carries down by over 50%. "Mileage was a concern heading into the season," writes ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr., "but that's less of an issue now." Kiper slots Fournette in at No. 6 on his latest Big Board. Either he or Dalvin Cook figure to be the first running back selected when April's draft hits.
 
 
Source: ESPN Insider 
Feb 11 - 4:40 PM

 

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16 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Interesting stat given how many mocks have him going to Carolina.

I am beginning to like this pick if he is there.  He could be exactly what that offense needs to go next level.

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