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Anarchy99

2015 Anarchy League 2 Thread

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Duckboy zero-RB strategy through 9. interesting

This has been my "strategy" for years, ever since the first one where I went with the standard style, ended up with 3 RBs in the first 4 rounds and finished dead last. Not afraid to take an RB if one drops that I like, but TEs/WRs tend to rule, especially if you can fill that flex spot with a decent one. Commish sniped me on Perriman so went Maxx instead.

Not that I am releasing any state secrets, IMO you either want high volume RBs on playoff teams or you punt RBs and just get back ups and hope the NFL starter gets hurt. Guys that split time aren't worth it. It's not worth chasing 30-40 points at RB when there are 100 point drop offs at other positions.

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Duckboy zero-RB strategy through 9. interesting

This has been my "strategy" for years, ever since the first one where I went with the standard style, ended up with 3 RBs in the first 4 rounds and finished dead last. Not afraid to take an RB if one drops that I like, but TEs/WRs tend to rule

:goodposting:

My typical strategy as well. Though admittedly it has typically worked much better for Duckboy...

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Duckboy zero-RB strategy through 9. interesting

This has been my "strategy" for years, ever since the first one where I went with the standard style, ended up with 3 RBs in the first 4 rounds and finished dead last. Not afraid to take an RB if one drops that I like, but TEs/WRs tend to rule, especially if you can fill that flex spot with a decent one. Commish sniped me on Perriman so went Maxx instead.

Sure, totally understand waiting on RBs in this format, just thought it's getting a bit sparse out there to nab a decent/reliable couple of starters. Understand totally the theory of outscoring the competition at your other positions. I just hadn't seen holding off this long in any of the other leagues Ive mocked/drafted in so far. Interested to see how this turns out for you. Good Luck!!

In my experience, no other leagues have requirements like Anarchy, so other mocks and drafts are apples and oranges. :shrug:

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Duckboy zero-RB strategy through 9. interesting

This has been my "strategy" for years, ever since the first one where I went with the standard style, ended up with 3 RBs in the first 4 rounds and finished dead last. Not afraid to take an RB if one drops that I like, but TEs/WRs tend to rule, especially if you can fill that flex spot with a decent one. Commish sniped me on Perriman so went Maxx instead.

Sure, totally understand waiting on RBs in this format, just thought it's getting a bit sparse out there to nab a decent/reliable couple of starters. Understand totally the theory of outscoring the competition at your other positions. I just hadn't seen holding off this long in any of the other leagues Ive mocked/drafted in so far. Interested to see how this turns out for you. Good Luck!!

In my experience, no other leagues have requirements like Anarchy, so other mocks and drafts are apples and oranges. :shrug:

In 2 other Anarchy leagues Im in, just haven't seen the trend in those is all. Not saying its right or wrong.

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The reason for my surprise and comments in league six about the RB being taken so early and often is because I am more accustomed to how these guys draft for this league and they do not do that.

TEs that I got in in rounds 8 and 9 in league six were taken in round 6 and 7 respectively. There it is may have caused even more early TE picks as well. I expect that. Which is part why I went with Olsen so early. This year is a bit different in that there was a lot of change with the top TE and more uncertainty perhaps with how the top TE will perform.

That said I have filled four of my RB spots now. I tend to get forced into RB picks as well as risky picks like Jordan Reed because this group does not miss much and understands the format so well.

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think i'm otc but I am having trouble getting into this league....getting an error from mfl, etc....I can get into anarchy 1 and BLC and the IBL but anarchy 2 is acting up...

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Duckboy zero-RB strategy through 9. interesting

This has been my "strategy" for years, ever since the first one where I went with the standard style, ended up with 3 RBs in the first 4 rounds and finished dead last. Not afraid to take an RB if one drops that I like, but TEs/WRs tend to rule, especially if you can fill that flex spot with a decent one. Commish sniped me on Perriman so went Maxx instead.

Sure, totally understand waiting on RBs in this format, just thought it's getting a bit sparse out there to nab a decent/reliable couple of starters. Understand totally the theory of outscoring the competition at your other positions. I just hadn't seen holding off this long in any of the other leagues Ive mocked/drafted in so far. Interested to see how this turns out for you. Good Luck!!

In my experience, no other leagues have requirements like Anarchy, so other mocks and drafts are apples and oranges. :shrug:

In 2 other Anarchy leagues Im in, just haven't seen the trend in those is all. Not saying its right or wrong.

You're in the big boy league now, kid.

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I don't want to hold things up but I still can't get in and I will be out for a bit....

if somebody can get in and has access I would like to draft

Dan Bailey PK DAL

I'll send Yud's a message

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MFL having issues. No access to anything at the moment. Will have to sort things out once they resolve their technical issues.

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Yeah I am up in this league, but when I go to look at TMQB, there's no one listed. Eh?

LOL. TMQB option not available in other leagues either. MFL hitting the sauce hard today.

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Shows up in my screen :shrug: Got one locked and loaded just now in another Anarchy league.

Don't think it'll allow you to see TMQBs if you already have you're max allotment. Had that happen in my auction league. Locked you out of that position basically.

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Yeah I am up in this league, but when I go to look at TMQB, there's no one listed. Eh?

LOL. TMQB option not available in other leagues either. MFL hitting the sauce hard today.

this....I couldn't see it either and I only have one qb....if you go ahead and go to the "enter draft pick" screen you can see who is left....just be vewwy, vewwy, careful....

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Yeah I am up in this league, but when I go to look at TMQB, there's no one listed. Eh?

LOL. TMQB option not available in other leagues either. MFL hitting the sauce hard today.

this....I couldn't see it either and I only have one qb....if you go ahead and go to the "enter draft pick" screen you can see who is left....just be vewwy, vewwy, careful....

The system shouldn't let the pick go through either way...since max limit on TMQB position has been set to 2 by Commish.

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Yeah I am up in this league, but when I go to look at TMQB, there's no one listed. Eh?

LOL. TMQB option not available in other leagues either. MFL hitting the sauce hard today.

this....I couldn't see it either and I only have one qb....if you go ahead and go to the "enter draft pick" screen you can see who is left....just be vewwy, vewwy, careful....

The system shouldn't let the pick go through either way...since max limit on TMQB position has been set to 2 by Commish.

I do not believe the system will block picks based on roster limitations. That's how we end up with illegal rosters.

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Yeah I am up in this league, but when I go to look at TMQB, there's no one listed. Eh?

LOL. TMQB option not available in other leagues either. MFL hitting the sauce hard today.

this....I couldn't see it either and I only have one qb....if you go ahead and go to the "enter draft pick" screen you can see who is left....just be vewwy, vewwy, careful....

The system shouldn't let the pick go through either way...since max limit on TMQB position has been set to 2 by Commish.

I do not believe the system will block picks based on roster limitations. That's how we end up with illegal rosters.

In past years, the site did not prevent illegal rosters, it had to be enforced manually.

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Just going on how it works in my auction league. We use start 2 tmqbs and max out at 3. If a team already had their 3rd qb up for bids, the system wouldn't allow you to bid on a 4th and would give you a warning message if you tried.

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Actually, now that I think about it, the illegal rosters in the past were always related to the flex positions. Since the site knows you can have up to 5 RBs and up to 6 WRs and up to 3 TEs, it would sometimes allow a team to draft a 6th WR even though they already had 3 TEs, meaning the flex position was filled. It didn't catch the fact that the team would then be unable to meet PK requirements, for example, since it didn't have enough picks remaining to draft 2.

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Exactly.

I set limits on the tmqb so that I don't have to back out screwup for one

But for for another, it won't allow teams to artificially drive up prices on that 3rd qb.

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Yea. I believe you would set it up for minimum starters per position and then set maximums for rb wr and te as flexes to account for the remains allowable total per team. Thetes a way to do it I know. May not be explaining it right.

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Yeah I am up in this league, but when I go to look at TMQB, there's no one listed. Eh?

LOL. TMQB option not available in other leagues either. MFL hitting the sauce hard today.

Oops, sorry, meant to say it wasn't letting me look up TMQB in your Bastard Child league. I don't have a TMQB in that one yet, and it's not letting me see any in a list.

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Yeah I am up in this league, but when I go to look at TMQB, there's no one listed. Eh?

LOL. TMQB option not available in other leagues either. MFL hitting the sauce hard today.

Oops, sorry, meant to say it wasn't letting me look up TMQB in your Bastard Child league. I don't have a TMQB in that one yet, and it's not letting me see any in a list.

fyi - you're otc in one of the anarchy drafts.

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So another draft is finally coming to an end. There were a few points of drama that occurred for me throughout this draft.

First of all you guys drafted soooo sloooowly. 14 days in now. I remember when league two used to set the ADP by being one of the first leagues to finish. Not so this year.

Second of all you guys make too many good picks. Some of the players who have slid to me in other drafts never did in this draft. If I really like a guy I have had to buy them at a fair price point (hopefully) instead of feeling good about the value.

Third I got forced into two early RB which is not the way I wanted to begin. But similarly to above my predraft lists tend to stick me with the RB because that is what the rest of you leave there. I think I would have preferred to get at least one WR in the first four rounds.

Anyhow here is my all bust squad for 2015

1.09 9. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB – Peterson is going to be on a mission this season.

2.08 24. Olsen, Greg CAR TE – Somewhat a difficult choice between him and Bennett but I like Carolinas schedule and playoff chances more than I do Chicago.

3.09 41. Gore, Frank IND RB – Although Gore is 32 years old now, he has played very well and playoff potential makes him a bit more valuable as well.

4.08 56. Falcons, Atlanta ATL TMQB – Honestly I really wanted Drew Brees with my previous pick but he was gone. So I decided Matt Ryan has a favorable schedule as well. The NFC South is wide open for playoffs although I favor the Saints there as well.

5.09 73. Jackson, DeSean WAS WR – Extremely talented but not as good in this format is the main reason I think Jackson was still available here. He finished as WR24 in 2014 and WR 16 in 2013. I got him at WR29.

6.08 88. Brown, John ARI WR – I think it is possible that Brown becomes Carson Palmers primary WR.

7.09 105. Reed, Jordan WAS TE – I did not want this guy. Last thing I need is a injury just waiting to happen and give me zeros. But if Reed can actually stay healthy 70 receptions seems possible. I wanted Rudolph, Ebron or Gates who could play more games than Reed will even with his suspension, but all of those guys were gone by then.

8.08 120. Wright, Kendall TEN WR - The Titans are a bad team. I think Wright is their best receiver and could have a lot of receptions again with Mariota.

9.09 137. Sankey, Bishop TEN RB - I still hold some hope that Sankey can take advantage of his opportunity. I maybe could have gone another direction here.

10.08 152. Blue, Alfred HOU RB – Watched Cushing picking on him a bit on hard knocks yesterday. Although I don’t think Blue is an exceptional talent, I do think he is a pretty well rounded player. The Texans are going to run as much as they can and I hope most of that will be Blue. Fosters return could put a damper on this opportunity, but Blue still had a fair amount of action with Foster last season. So I think he will still contribute some even when Foster gets back.

11.09 169. Redskins, Washington WAS TMQB – People are so down on Griffin I perhaps could have taken this later on. I missed on a few QB targets like Baltimore QB earlier and the remaining QB looked grim. So I took Washington as one of the last median range scorers left because I didn’t want to get stuck with Bortles or something later on.

12.08 184. Patriots, New England NEP Def - They may not be as good as last season, but playoff opportunity helps this pick quite a bit. I wanted to get kicker taken care of but most of the good ones were gone at this point so I opted for what I hope will be a top defense instead.

13.09 201. Sturgis, Caleb MIA PK – Hopefully he stays healthy.

14.08 216. Zuerlein, Greg STL PK - Hopefully he stays healthy. I didn’t want to get stuck with a kicker fighting for a job. Hopefully I have two contributors here.

15.09 233. Shorts, Cecil HOU WR – Looks like the WR for the Texans for what that is worth.

16.08 248. Lockett, Tyler SEA WR – I really like Lockett and I do not like the Seahawks other WR much. Hoping he can contribute on offense after the midway point of the season.

17.09 265. Hartline, Brian CLE WR – With nothing left at TE for my flex I had Hartline rated really close to about five other WR. Hartline I think has a chance to be their top WR if Bowe isn’t up to the task. Terrible QB and playoff aspirations.

18.08 – A defense to be determined.

I think I am pretty strong at TE with Olsen and Reed IF Reed does manage to play as many games as Gates or more.

While Peterson and Gore should give me some good points, my other two RB are pretty questionable contributors.

Matt Ryan and Griffin are hopefully both 300+ point contributors.

No advantage at defense or kicker.

Those are some ugly WR.

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My view of my team:

1.14 - Jordy Nelson, WR, GB - 7th WR drafted, finished as WR #3 last season. Multiple playoff games likely. Easy choice.
2.03 - Travis Kelce, TE, KC - 3rd TE drafted, finished as TE #8 last season, but on just 87 targets in his first season of actual NFL playing time. Expecting a lot more.
3.14 - Zach Ertz, TE, PHI - 7th TE drafted, finished as TE #14 last season. Had preseason surgery after this pick, but is expected to be ready for week 1. Drafted him expecting top 7 finish, now dependent on returning to full health. Expecting Philly to make the playoffs.
4.03 - Jordan Matthews, WR, PHI - 22nd WR drafted. Finished as WR #25 last season, but was a rookie and was WR #14 in the second half of the season. Now Maclin is gone, which should result in more opportunity. Expecting Philly to make the playoffs.
5.14 - Vincent Jackson, WR, TB - 31st WR drafted. Finished as WR #35 last season, but with only 2 TDs. Had an incredible 142 targets last season, but only 55% of them were on target. With improved QB play, expecting a season more like his 2013 season, when he finished as WR #19.
6.03 - T.J. Yeldon, RB, JAC - 25th RB drafted. Expecting him to be a rare three down RB and put up 1200+ total yards and 8+ TDs if he stays healthy, which should be good enough for a top 20 finish.
7.14 - Chargers, TMQB, SD - 14th TMQB drafted. Finished as TMQB #15 last season, but that was with major injuries unlikely to be repeated. Major upgrades on offense. Should be back in the playoffs this season, and TMQB performance should be much closer to 2013 (#6). Plus, this is a :homer: pick.
8.03 - Eagles, TMQB, PHI - 15th TMQB drafted. Finished as TMQB #16 last season, but expect Eagles TMQB to finish in the top 10 as Bradford has a career year. Betting this draft on Philly having a big offensive season and making the playoffs, as shown by Ertz and Matthews picks. This puts me all in.
9.14 - Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA - 54th WR drafted. Finished as WR #26 last season and should again play multiple playoff games. Addition of Graham should help. Strongly considered drafting him at the previous turn but gambled that he would make it back. Incredible value pick here.
10.03 - Stevie Johnson, WR, SD - 56th WR drafted. In position for strong rebound year and will play this season with by far the best QB and supporting cast on offense of his career. Replaces Eddie Royal, who finished as WR #33 last season and WR #39 in 2013, and should be as good or better. Expecting playoff points.
11.14 - Jonas Gray, RB, NE - 47th RB drafted. Flashed last season before landing in the doghouse, but having a strong offseason/preseason and in position to be New England's #2 RB and starter for the opener with Blount suspended. Playoff games likely, there is a lot of upside here.
12.03 - Cody Parkey, PK, PHI - 7th PK drafted. Finished as PK #8 last season but had the #2 ppg average. With the PK run started (7 of 20 picks at this point), felt it was important to roster one and get in position to get a second without reaching the PK roulette point that usually burns 1-2 teams per season. More Philly offense.
13.14 - Chandler Catanzaro, PK, ARI - 18th PK drafted, finished as PK #16 last season. Wanted to secure a second kicker as noted above and took the best available.
14.03 - Malcom Floyd, WR, SD - 70th WR drafted. Finished as WR #46 last season, and remains a top Rivers target. Great value pick here if he stays healthy.
15.14 - Jaguars, DST, JAC - 20th DST drafted. Finished #25 last season, but expecting improvement in Bradley's second season.
16.03 - Giants, DST, NYG - 22nd DST drafted. Finished as DST #23 last season. Hoping for top 20 finish, with outside chance at playoff points.
17.14 - David Johnson, RB, ARI - 60th RB drafted. Rookie with healthy upside. If healthy, should outperform this draft position.
18.03 - Roy Helu, RB, OAK - 63rd RB drafted, finished as RB # 39 last season, despite missing a few games. Now in Oakland with bust Richardson and unproven incumbent Murray. If healthy, should easily outperform this draft position.
---
It comes down to Philly and San Diego for this team. If both make the playoffs and have good offensive seasons, this team should be a contender. :football:

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This year I looked at 6 teams that have a decent probability of playing 18 games: NEP, IND, DEN, SEA, GB, DAL. Depending upon the player and the position, that can be worth quite a bit in these leagues.

TMQB: NEP & OAK

I still think Brady plays every game this year (IMO, I think this gets bogged down in the courts and it won't be fully wrapped up before the season is over.) Brady and the Pats put up 460 points in this format last year. I am sticking to my scorched earth prediction, so I see the Pats TMQB in line for a similar total this year. OAK seems to have gotten a little better adding Cooper, so I would expect them in the 280 point range.

RB: Hill, Blount, Foster, Sims

Hill should be a bell cow. Foster could be a steal if he only misses a few games. Blount has shown a knack for getting in the end zone (but some weeks where he doesn't show up). I don't love Sims, but I got him 50-100 picks later than the other leagues so I am guessing that was a decent value.

WR: LaFell, Decker, Perriman, Harvin, Amendola, Brown

Won't win any beauty contests but could have several playoff contributors. With Benjamin out, Brown could get more snaps. I will believe a guy named Philly will be a contributor when I see it.

TE: Gronk & Walker

A healthy Gronk could be a difference maker. Outscored the #2 TE last year by 90 points. Walker stands a decent chance to be Top 10 again.

PK: Gostkowski & Crosby

Invested in 2 decent kickers from playoff bound teams. Will be interesting this year to see if there really are more 2 point attempts.

DEF: ARI & SFO

Nothing much to write home about. Who knows what the Niners defense will look like with all the changes.

OVERALL

Brady and Gronk could score 900 points combined, so hopefully the remaining guys stay healthy enough to give me a shot at being in the hunt. I think I have a dozen roster spots from playoff worthy teams. Will have to see if it plays out that way.

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I really like both JWB's and Anarchy's teams. Bia's too. I think a lot of talent slipped in this draft based on JWB's roster.

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I really like both JWB's and Anarchy's teams. Bia's too. I think a lot of talent slipped in this draft based on JWB's roster.

I agree Floyd in particular was a great pick at 14.03 I was trying to take care of my Kickers around that point of the draft but Floyd although an injury risk was on my short list of WR and possibly ahead of Shorts who I got in the 15th round.

What talent specifically do you think slipped too far from our draft?

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My view of my team:

1.14 1.11 - Jordy Nelson, WR, GB - 7th WR drafted, finished as WR #3 last season. Multiple playoff games likely. Easy choice.
2.03 - Travis Kelce, TE, KC - 3rd TE drafted, finished as TE #8 last season, but on just 87 targets in his first season of actual NFL playing time. Expecting a lot more.
3.14 3.12 - Zach Ertz, TE, PHI - 7th TE drafted, finished as TE #14 last season. Had preseason surgery after this pick, but is expected to be ready for week 1. Drafted him expecting top 7 finish, now dependent on returning to full health. Expecting Philly to make the playoffs.
4.03 - 3.10 Jordan Matthews, WR, PHI - 22nd WR drafted. Finished as WR #25 last season, but was a rookie and was WR #14 in the second half of the season. Now Maclin is gone, which should result in more opportunity. Expecting Philly to make the playoffs.
5.14 - Vincent Jackson, WR, TB - 31st WR drafted. Finished as WR #35 last season, but with only 2 TDs. Had an incredible 142 targets last season, but only 55% of them were on target. With improved QB play, expecting a season more like his 2013 season, when he finished as WR #19.
6.03 4.01 - T.J. Yeldon, RB, JAC - 25th RB drafted. Expecting him to be a rare three down RB and put up 1200+ total yards and 8+ TDs if he stays healthy, which should be good enough for a top 20 finish.
7.14 6.11 - Chargers, TMQB, SD - 14th TMQB drafted. Finished as TMQB #15 last season, but that was with major injuries unlikely to be repeated. Major upgrades on offense. Should be back in the playoffs this season, and TMQB performance should be much closer to 2013 (#6). Plus, this is a :homer: pick.
8.03 6.9 - Eagles, TMQB, PHI - 15th TMQB drafted. Finished as TMQB #16 last season, but expect Eagles TMQB to finish in the top 10 as Bradford has a career year. Betting this draft on Philly having a big offensive season and making the playoffs, as shown by Ertz and Matthews picks. This puts me all in.
9.14 - Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA - 54th WR drafted. Finished as WR #26 last season and should again play multiple playoff games. Addition of Graham should help. Strongly considered drafting him at the previous turn but gambled that he would make it back. Incredible value pick here.
10.03 - Stevie Johnson, WR, SD - 56th WR drafted. In position for strong rebound year and will play this season with by far the best QB and supporting cast on offense of his career. Replaces Eddie Royal, who finished as WR #33 last season and WR #39 in 2013, and should be as good or better. Expecting playoff points.
11.14 9.7 - Jonas Gray, RB, NE - 47th RB drafted. Flashed last season before landing in the doghouse, but having a strong offseason/preseason and in position to be New England's #2 RB and starter for the opener with Blount suspended. Playoff games likely, there is a lot of upside here.
12.03 11.6 - Cody Parkey, PK, PHI - 7th PK drafted. Finished as PK #8 last season but had the #2 ppg average. With the PK run started (7 of 20 picks at this point), felt it was important to roster one and get in position to get a second without reaching the PK roulette point that usually burns 1-2 teams per season. More Philly offense.
13.14 11.13 - Chandler Catanzaro, PK, ARI - 18th PK drafted, finished as PK #16 last season. Wanted to secure a second kicker as noted above and took the best available.
14.03 - Malcom Floyd, WR, SD - 70th WR drafted. Finished as WR #46 last season, and remains a top Rivers target. Great value pick here if he stays healthy.
15.14 - Jaguars, DST, JAC - 20th DST drafted. Finished #25 last season, but expecting improvement in Bradley's second season.
16.03 - Giants, DST, NYG - 22nd DST drafted. Finished as DST #23 last season. Hoping for top 20 finish, with outside chance at playoff points.
17.14 10.07 - David Johnson, RB, ARI - 60th RB drafted. Rookie with healthy upside. If healthy, should outperform this draft position.
18.03 16.6 - Roy Helu, RB, OAK - 63rd RB drafted, finished as RB # 39 last season, despite missing a few games. Now in Oakland with bust Richardson and unproven incumbent Murray. If healthy, should easily outperform this draft position.
---
It comes down to Philly and San Diego for this team. If both make the playoffs and have good offensive seasons, this team should be a contender. :football:

Posted the draft position some of jab's selections went in league 1.

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I really like both JWB's and Anarchy's teams. Bia's too. I think a lot of talent slipped in this draft based on JWB's roster.

I agree Floyd in particular was a great pick at 14.03 I was trying to take care of my Kickers around that point of the draft but Floyd although an injury risk was on my short list of WR and possibly ahead of Shorts who I got in the 15th round.

What talent specifically do you think slipped too far from our draft?

jwb got a pair of nice RBs in round 17/18.

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Team rzrback77

Team QB - Packers (1.15) and (10.2).SF 49ers - Love getting a top two QB with obvious playoff potential, 49ers very little playoff chance, but the offense will be forced to play catch up and hopefully Kaepernick will revert a little to his roots and run the ball well and hit Torrey Smith on deep throws,

RB - Lamar MIller MIA (3.15), Bernard Giovani CIN (5.15) , Darren McFadden DAL (12.2), and James White NE (17.15) - Four guys with playoff potential. One should be the primary back and two others hopefully heavily involved in a RBBC.

WR - Cobb GB (2.2), Andre Johnson INDI (4.2), Larry Fitzgerald AZ (6.2), Anquan Boldin SF (8.2), DeVante Parker MIA (11.15) and Jermaine Kearse SEA (18.2)

TE - Charles Clay BUF (7.15) and Jace Amaro NYJ (9.15)

PK - Hartley PITT (13.15) and Santos KC (16.2)

DST - Miami (142) and Dallas (15.15)

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As I mentioned earlier, this year I'm working on using positional-point baselines instead of using positional-rank baselines. Essentially, I want to look at what the Mendoza Line equivalent is for each position, and choose players based on how munch value they provide above that line.

There are a few reasons I think this is a better approach than using the projections for the #80 WR, which is what I'd been doing in this league before, the most important of which is that I think that projections for WR80 and RB64 have crappy accuracy. Much more so than the projections for WR36 and RB24, they are shots in the dark, and don't map well to year-end results at those positions. Using bad projections as baselines gives you skewed VBD calculations.

So I went through and looked at results from previous years, and with some hand-waving, came up with a definition of replacement-level production at each position. There's probably a programmatic way to do this but I did it by feel, looking at where the production curve flattened out into "just a bunch of guys" territory.

TMQB: 250 points

RB: 40

WR: 60

TE: 45

K: 100

DST: 120

Probably the most important finding here is that you can get 250 TMQB points out of a baseline player, which is why TMQB has very limited value in this format. Even the most highly-projected QBs are going to get you less than 200 VBD points, which is less than guys like Martellus Bennett or AJ Green, and the middling QBs get you almost nothing. Ben Roethlisberger went in the second round at 104 VBD points, just before Greg Olsen who's projected for 259.

This isn't that out of whack with baselines I've used in this league in the past, but I'm more comfortable trusting the results.

So, here's how it went down:

1.12: Calvin Johnson. My #1 rated receiver anyway, I felt he was a steal as WR#6. Especially since my second choice was Jordy Nelson who just blew out his ACL. The other option was a TE, and Kelce/Olsen just don't excite me the way Gronk/Graham do.

2.05: AJ Green. The last WR I have in the top tier, super-happy to get him here. I did have to seriously consider Olsen.

3.12: Deandre Hopkins. Seriously, pick 48 in this format? He scored 233 points last year, and that was with Andre Johnson taking 146 targets. Stupid value here. The TEs aren't flying off the board quite as fast this year so there's some decent options available, but I can't take Zach Ertz, even if his VBD numbers were better, which they're not.

4.05: Keenan Allen (Go Bears!). OK I'm now the all-WR, all the time team. Even leaving aside the Cal factor, Allen is the last guy in his tier, and should be better than a number of guys already drafted; he's going off the board as the #23 WR, and he's projected as WR18 even with Dodds not giving him 1000 yards. Julius Thomas and Jordan Cameron are other options for the pick, but I don't like TEs who switch teams.

5.12: Heath Miller. TE value is still looking OK. Miller is unexciting but as TE15 he's an easy pick. Really no other value options on the board at positions other than TE.

6.05: Austin Seferian-Jenkins. He was my #2 choice at 5.12, so I'm happy to get him here. Value at other positions is even worse than it was at 5.12; getting 40 VBD points over RBs at this point, 60 over QBs.

7.12: Joique Bell. RBs are still giving up 40 VBD points to TE/WR, but I need one at some point, and I have a plan for my TE3. Just get me 125 points and I'm OK.

8.05: Shane Vereen (Go Bears!). Unlikely to be a major contributor, still giving up lots of VBD to WRs, but they say we have to have 4 RBs, so it might as well be a Bear.

9.12: Richard Rodgers (Go Bears!). The secret plan for my TE3, this is probably the last place I can expect to have a shot at him. A little good fortune can make a mediocre starting TE into a monster in this format, so we'll hope he gets some.

10.05: Jay Ajayi. A mistake; I was traveling and missed out on injury news. Probably should have gone with Alfred Blue. If I get anything at all out of him I'll be happy.

11.12: Devin Funchess. A pretty solid selection to round out my WR corps. The pick was made before the Kelvin Benjamin injury, targeting a rookie with upside. Now it looks really good.

12.05: Chris Johnson. My last position slot outside of QB, I needed another RB, and the rumors of CJ2K going to Arizona were starting up. Looks like a decent filler pick.

13.12: TEN TMQB (Mariota). I like Mariota's prospects a lot.

14.05: Phil Dawson. The kicker run isn't quite as dramatic this year. All I'm looking for is a guy who'll play 16 games.

15.12: Robbie Gould. See 14.05.

16.05: STL TMQB (Foles). He's got some weapons and he's probably better than Bradford.

17.12: Chicago D. It's a D.

18.05: Oakland D. It might be a D.

Overall, with the exception of the Jay Ajayi pick, I'm happy with the team. The Jordy Nelson and Kelvin Benjamin injuries have improved my prospects; I need to be careful not to celebrate or the fantasy gods will destroy my money-league team.

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As I mentioned earlier, this year I'm working on using positional-point baselines instead of using positional-rank baselines. Essentially, I want to look at what the Mendoza Line equivalent is for each position, and choose players based on how munch value they provide above that line.

There are a few reasons I think this is a better approach than using the projections for the #80 WR, which is what I'd been doing in this league before, the most important of which is that I think that projections for WR80 and RB64 have crappy accuracy. Much more so than the projections for WR36 and RB24, they are shots in the dark, and don't map well to year-end results at those positions. Using bad projections as baselines gives you skewed VBD calculations.

So I went through and looked at results from previous years, and with some hand-waving, came up with a definition of replacement-level production at each position. There's probably a programmatic way to do this but I did it by feel, looking at where the production curve flattened out into "just a bunch of guys" territory.

TMQB: 250 points

RB: 40

WR: 60

TE: 45

K: 100

DST: 120

Probably the most important finding here is that you can get 250 TMQB points out of a baseline player, which is why TMQB has very limited value in this format. Even the most highly-projected QBs are going to get you less than 200 VBD points, which is less than guys like Martellus Bennett or AJ Green, and the middling QBs get you almost nothing. Ben Roethlisberger went in the second round at 104 VBD points, just before Greg Olsen who's projected for 259.

This isn't that out of whack with baselines I've used in this league in the past, but I'm more comfortable trusting the results.

So, here's how it went down:

1.12: Calvin Johnson. My #1 rated receiver anyway, I felt he was a steal as WR#6. Especially since my second choice was Jordy Nelson who just blew out his ACL. The other option was a TE, and Kelce/Olsen just don't excite me the way Gronk/Graham do.

2.05: AJ Green. The last WR I have in the top tier, super-happy to get him here. I did have to seriously consider Olsen.

3.12: Deandre Hopkins. Seriously, pick 48 in this format? He scored 233 points last year, and that was with Andre Johnson taking 146 targets. Stupid value here. The TEs aren't flying off the board quite as fast this year so there's some decent options available, but I can't take Zach Ertz, even if his VBD numbers were better, which they're not.

4.05: Keenan Allen (Go Bears!). OK I'm now the all-WR, all the time team. Even leaving aside the Cal factor, Allen is the last guy in his tier, and should be better than a number of guys already drafted; he's going off the board as the #23 WR, and he's projected as WR18 even with Dodds not giving him 1000 yards. Julius Thomas and Jordan Cameron are other options for the pick, but I don't like TEs who switch teams.

5.12: Heath Miller. TE value is still looking OK. Miller is unexciting but as TE15 he's an easy pick. Really no other value options on the board at positions other than TE.

6.05: Austin Seferian-Jenkins. He was my #2 choice at 5.12, so I'm happy to get him here. Value at other positions is even worse than it was at 5.12; getting 40 VBD points over RBs at this point, 60 over QBs.

7.12: Joique Bell. RBs are still giving up 40 VBD points to TE/WR, but I need one at some point, and I have a plan for my TE3. Just get me 125 points and I'm OK.

8.05: Shane Vereen (Go Bears!). Unlikely to be a major contributor, still giving up lots of VBD to WRs, but they say we have to have 4 RBs, so it might as well be a Bear.

9.12: Richard Rodgers (Go Bears!). The secret plan for my TE3, this is probably the last place I can expect to have a shot at him. A little good fortune can make a mediocre starting TE into a monster in this format, so we'll hope he gets some.

10.05: Jay Ajayi. A mistake; I was traveling and missed out on injury news. Probably should have gone with Alfred Blue. If I get anything at all out of him I'll be happy.

11.12: Devin Funchess. A pretty solid selection to round out my WR corps. The pick was made before the Kelvin Benjamin injury, targeting a rookie with upside. Now it looks really good.

12.05: Chris Johnson. My last position slot outside of QB, I needed another RB, and the rumors of CJ2K going to Arizona were starting up. Looks like a decent filler pick.

13.12: TEN TMQB (Mariota). I like Mariota's prospects a lot.

14.05: Phil Dawson. The kicker run isn't quite as dramatic this year. All I'm looking for is a guy who'll play 16 games.

15.12: Robbie Gould. See 14.05.

16.05: STL TMQB (Foles). He's got some weapons and he's probably better than Bradford.

17.12: Chicago D. It's a D.

18.05: Oakland D. It might be a D.

Overall, with the exception of the Jay Ajayi pick, I'm happy with the team. The Jordy Nelson and Kelvin Benjamin injuries have improved my prospects; I need to be careful not to celebrate or the fantasy gods will destroy my money-league team.

Well done. This draft here explains why I thought value fell in the league.

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My view of my team:

1.14 - Jordy Nelson, WR, GB - 7th WR drafted, finished as WR #3 last season. Multiple playoff games likely. Easy choice.

:sadbanana:

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Drafting out of the 6th position, I felt great after starting off 1-2 with Julio Jones and Brandin Cooks. Last week or so has been pretty busy. Last time I posted, I think I said it was up to me not to screw that start up. Hmm...

3.06 Drew Brees. I'm a big fan of the Saints' prospects for 2015. I consider them a playoff caliber team, and an NFC Champ contender, and I don't think Brees is going to see much of a statistical drop off. I have him ranked above Cam and a short-seasoned Brady, so falling to me, I felt compelled to pick him. Only Romo and Ryan were selected between Brees and my next selection, I'm sure he wouldn't have fallen to 4.11, but I'm not sure if Ryan or Romo would have either, or that I would have been as happy with one of the RB/WR/TE I could have taken instead, and any of the remaining QB. I pay extra attention to the Redskins, and I'm the most pessimistic Redskins fan I know. I have no illusions about their playoff chances, so Alfred Morris is a 16-game player at best, but I do feel they are going to be extremely successful running the ball, and with PPR taken out of the game for RB, I think he was the remaining RB that stood a chance to rack up both yardage and TD's for a non-playoff RB. I was targeting Ingram here, for the extra games I predict he will play, but was sniped one pick shy. At the time, Kelvin Benjamin was still playing for the Panthers, and I didn't expect Jonathan Stewart to be available at 5.06. Going off his strong 2014 finish, I'm a believer, but even prior to the injury, I only viewed Carolina as a cusp playoff team, so I only expect a regular season's worth of games out of him, but he was my next ranked RB behind Morris, so again, I felt compelled to take him. With Benjamin out, here come the 8-man fronts, and now I worry about his survival again...I'm all-in on the Packers this year, and with no real shot at Rodgers, Lacy, Jordy or Cobb, I had the opportunity to grab a wire-to-wire guy in Davante Adams. Who'd have thought Jordy? Not me, but I thought there was a chance Cobb might miss time. Regardless, I felt Rodgers could support 3 top-32 WR, so grabbing Adams as my WR 3 was appealing, especially with how badly I was mismanageing TE at that point. No appealing options there, and it's just not to my taste to grab one 'just because', with a WR I liked available. Now, there's an opportunity for higher ceiling...looking back, I absolutely can't remember why I drafted Rashad Jennings. The Giants aren't a playoff team in my opinion, I have no faith in Eli, I think Beckham is going to crash back to earth, and I think the Giants game scripts are going to put Vereen on the field a whole bunch, but without PPR, Vereen lost some luster...I guess I wasn't ready to take a 2nd QB yet, and I didn't see much difference in the remaining WR/TE that I couldn't get later, and it was way too early to think about D/ST or PK...so at this point I have a QB, 3RB and 3WR and 0 TE. Zero TE in this format, going into Round 8 is simply not good. Well, now I have one for at least the 1st 4 weeks. I'm enamored with Ladarius Green, and was looking to nab him as part of a TE group, but more likely as a TE2, or 3 if I chose to carry 3 TE. Have to hope he starts strong and it carries through Gates' return, but I have to question the feasibility of that outcome. I had planned on drafting the Palmer/Stanton tandem as my QB2 right from the start, but given my team's construction, I reached for them here, and I had some regrets by the time it came around to me again. Richard Rodgers would have made a nice TE2 here. I'm getting a great vibe from Eddie Royal. Big fan of Stevie Johnson and Kenny Stills. I felt somewhat vindicated, however, when I picked Markus Wheaton at 10.11. I'm very bullish on the Steelers pass offense and Wheaton in particular. At the time, I kind of saw Davante Adams and Wheaton as the same guy. Well, if Adams makes the most of his opportunity, I get a WR2. and Wheaton becomes a very strong WR3 in 16-Team ppr with playoffs included. Sure wanted to land a piece of the Colts. There went Moncrief and Dorsett. Here comes the PK run. Didn't think Artis-Payne would go until much later. Not happy about that, boooooo. Having punted on TE, I had decided to build a 3TE committee, with some very specific targets in mind, and it was either jump into the PK run or grab one of 'my guys' from the dregs left in the TE pool, so I postponed PK to grab Jacob Tamme, who I consider a big-time TE sleeper. I have a ton of respect for Kyle Shanahan as an OC, and I think there's a huge opportunity for Tamme in his Falcons scheme, with little competition coming from either Toilolo or Moeaki. I hope I'm right. I jumped into the D/ST run at the right time, and came away with the Rams, and I'm happy about that, and for putting off PK, getting Matt Prater wasn't shabby. They'll likely both be 16-weekers, but both could be on the NFC playoff cusp. 5 picks left to backfill this thing...Reggie Bush, IMHO, is a poor-man's Shane Vereen. Like the Giants, I don't think 49'ers sniff the playoffs, and like Eli, I have no faith in Kaepernick, and like Vereen, I think the 49ers game scripts are going to dictate Bush being on the field for a majority of offensive snaps. A lot of meh went off the board, and a lot of meh remained, so grabbing the always tough Bengals as my D/ST2 felt right. Took a couple of upside flyers with Brandon Coleman and Ty Montgomery. Coleman was already solidifying himself as the Saints WR3, now Montgomery has a legitimate shot at being the Packers WR3, and I think they both go deep in the playoffs to boot. My only other consideration through the final 3 rounds, was filling Flex with WR or TE, specifically Ben Watson. In the end I decided to go for upside at WR, and hope my TE tandem works out. Josh Scobee, everyone's perennial PK2 who always seems, to me at least, to outperform his draft position, if only a little.

This sure seems like a weird team. I have hopes, but I really have no idea where it's going to wind up. It's probably going to take too many guys playing over their heads to make a run at repeating last year's 2nd place finish...but a man can dream, right? Fire away!

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Drafting out of the 6th position, I felt great after starting off 1-2 with Julio Jones and Brandin Cooks. Last week or so has been pretty busy. Last time I posted, I think I said it was up to me not to screw that start up. Hmm...

3.06 Drew Brees. I'm a big fan of the Saints' prospects for 2015. I consider them a playoff caliber team, and an NFC Champ contender, and I don't think Brees is going to see much of a statistical drop off. I have him ranked above Cam and a short-seasoned Brady, so falling to me, I felt compelled to pick him. Only Romo and Ryan were selected between Brees and my next selection, I'm sure he wouldn't have fallen to 4.11, but I'm not sure if Ryan or Romo would have either, or that I would have been as happy with one of the RB/WR/TE I could have taken instead, and any of the remaining QB. I pay extra attention to the Redskins, and I'm the most pessimistic Redskins fan I know. I have no illusions about their playoff chances, so Alfred Morris is a 16-game player at best, but I do feel they are going to be extremely successful running the ball, and with PPR taken out of the game for RB, I think he was the remaining RB that stood a chance to rack up both yardage and TD's for a non-playoff RB. I was targeting Ingram here, for the extra games I predict he will play, but was sniped one pick shy. At the time, Kelvin Benjamin was still playing for the Panthers, and I didn't expect Jonathan Stewart to be available at 5.06. Going off his strong 2014 finish, I'm a believer, but even prior to the injury, I only viewed Carolina as a cusp playoff team, so I only expect a regular season's worth of games out of him, but he was my next ranked RB behind Morris, so again, I felt compelled to take him. With Benjamin out, here come the 8-man fronts, and now I worry about his survival again...I'm all-in on the Packers this year, and with no real shot at Rodgers, Lacy, Jordy or Cobb, I had the opportunity to grab a wire-to-wire guy in Davante Adams. Who'd have thought Jordy? Not me, but I thought there was a chance Cobb might miss time. Regardless, I felt Rodgers could support 3 top-32 WR, so grabbing Adams as my WR 3 was appealing, especially with how badly I was mismanageing TE at that point. No appealing options there, and it's just not to my taste to grab one 'just because', with a WR I liked available. Now, there's an opportunity for higher ceiling...looking back, I absolutely can't remember why I drafted Rashad Jennings. The Giants aren't a playoff team in my opinion, I have no faith in Eli, I think Beckham is going to crash back to earth, and I think the Giants game scripts are going to put Vereen on the field a whole bunch, but without PPR, Vereen lost some luster...I guess I wasn't ready to take a 2nd QB yet, and I didn't see much difference in the remaining WR/TE that I couldn't get later, and it was way too early to think about D/ST or PK...so at this point I have a QB, 3RB and 3WR and 0 TE. Zero TE in this format, going into Round 8 is simply not good. Well, now I have one for at least the 1st 4 weeks. I'm enamored with Ladarius Green, and was looking to nab him as part of a TE group, but more likely as a TE2, or 3 if I chose to carry 3 TE. Have to hope he starts strong and it carries through Gates' return, but I have to question the feasibility of that outcome. I had planned on drafting the Palmer/Stanton tandem as my QB2 right from the start, but given my team's construction, I reached for them here, and I had some regrets by the time it came around to me again. Richard Rodgers would have made a nice TE2 here. I'm getting a great vibe from Eddie Royal. Big fan of Stevie Johnson and Kenny Stills. I felt somewhat vindicated, however, when I picked Markus Wheaton at 10.11. I'm very bullish on the Steelers pass offense and Wheaton in particular. At the time, I kind of saw Davante Adams and Wheaton as the same guy. Well, if Adams makes the most of his opportunity, I get a WR2. and Wheaton becomes a very strong WR3 in 16-Team ppr with playoffs included. Sure wanted to land a piece of the Colts. There went Moncrief and Dorsett. Here comes the PK run. Didn't think Artis-Payne would go until much later. Not happy about that, boooooo. Having punted on TE, I had decided to build a 3TE committee, with some very specific targets in mind, and it was either jump into the PK run or grab one of 'my guys' from the dregs left in the TE pool, so I postponed PK to grab Jacob Tamme, who I consider a big-time TE sleeper. I have a ton of respect for Kyle Shanahan as an OC, and I think there's a huge opportunity for Tamme in his Falcons scheme, with little competition coming from either Toilolo or Moeaki. I hope I'm right. I jumped into the D/ST run at the right time, and came away with the Rams, and I'm happy about that, and for putting off PK, getting Matt Prater wasn't shabby. They'll likely both be 16-weekers, but both could be on the NFC playoff cusp. 5 picks left to backfill this thing...Reggie Bush, IMHO, is a poor-man's Shane Vereen. Like the Giants, I don't think 49'ers sniff the playoffs, and like Eli, I have no faith in Kaepernick, and like Vereen, I think the 49ers game scripts are going to dictate Bush being on the field for a majority of offensive snaps. A lot of meh went off the board, and a lot of meh remained, so grabbing the always tough Bengals as my D/ST2 felt right. Took a couple of upside flyers with Brandon Coleman and Ty Montgomery. Coleman was already solidifying himself as the Saints WR3, now Montgomery has a legitimate shot at being the Packers WR3, and I think they both go deep in the playoffs to boot. My only other consideration through the final 3 rounds, was filling Flex with WR or TE, specifically Ben Watson. In the end I decided to go for upside at WR, and hope my TE tandem works out. Josh Scobee, everyone's perennial PK2 who always seems, to me at least, to outperform his draft position, if only a little.

This sure seems like a weird team. I have hopes, but I really have no idea where it's going to wind up. It's probably going to take too many guys playing over their heads to make a run at repeating last year's 2nd place finish...but a man can dream, right? Fire away!

Nice team. I expect you to be in first until the first place NFC South Panthers lead by Artis-Payne make a run to the Super Bowl and you plummet to the third.

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Stinkin Ref:

Same approach as normal. TE early and often, punt RB2-4 unless value, hit WR in mid rounds and take at least one swing for the fences, try not to suck at QB. Wasn't able to hit all those and the KB injury is devastating to this team but almost every team has injuries so you never know. Hopefully I can recoup those points somewhere and have a respectable showing. In hindsight kind of glad I went 3 TE route (even though it may not be the right guys) and that I pulled the trigger on two DST pretty early. Might be a couple of areas I can get a few of those points back, so to speak..

7.08 Bears, Chicago CHI TMQB13

15.08 Jaguars, Jacksonville JAC TMQB28

Yeah well so much for getting those KB points back even if I do get some, forgot they were also needed to cover this ####in mess . I am higher on both of these than most, especially JAC as I think they take a pretty big step forward in the passing game. I like their group of WR and adding a red zone threat like Thomas is nice. I think Thomas will be more than just a red zone guy though meaning I am not in the camp of his stats falling off a cliff. Going in to many of these survivor/anarchy drafts I was actually ok with knowing I could get JAC late and they could be my QB2. Not surprised if they finish top 20 and outplay draft position. Make or break year for Cutler in many ways and I think he has the skills to figure it out. I'll be behind the field here.

2.09 Murray, DeMarco PHI RB7

6.09 Abdullah, Ameer DET RB26

8.09 Ivory, Chris NYJ RB36

17.08 Starks, James GBP RB59

Starting digging Abdullah around the time these teed off. he will find his way onto many of my redraft teams moving forward. His price is still reasonable for the ROI I think he will provide. Not surprised if he ends up slicing his draft position in half. Murray should be a lock for top 5 in that offense IMO. Ivory an above average RB3 in this format. Don't usually go three deep in the first 8 rounds so I'm not sure wtf was going on.

3.08 Benjamin, Kelvin CAR WR16

5.08 Marshall, Brandon NYJ WR28

9.08 Hurns, Allen JAC WR52

10.09 Green-Beckham, Dorial TEN WR59

16.09 Wilson, Albert KCC WR79

Down to four. Ouch. Like Hurns but like Royal more now who I could have had, but don't think the White news had broken yet. Will need huge unexpected production from a couple guys here. Not even sure now why I am even doing this write up. Ooof....

1.08 Graham, Jimmy SEA TE2

4.09 Thomas, Julius JAC TE9

18.09 Graham, Garrett HOU TE37

Top 5 season out of Graham and I win this mutha.....

11.08 Bailey, Dan DAL PK5

14.09 Nugent, Mike CIN PK23

12.09 Broncos, Denver DEN DST5

13.08 Eagles, Philadelphia PHI DST11

Like my special teams units a bunch especially when looking up at the rest of my roster.

Overall: when RB is one of the strengths of one of my teams I am in serious trouble. League of Champions don't play nice. TMQB seemed to go a little earlier in this draft then some others. Like I was planning on a Cutler/Palmer combo and Arizona went at 12.10 in Anarchy 1 but 9.06 here. Oh well, RB, TE and special teams not gonna be enough to cover QB/WR....couple more injuries and I'm in the basement.

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Placeholder for now.

TMQB:
3.11 Cowboys, Dallas DAL TMQB #43 overall.
13.11 Chiefs, Kansas City KCC TMQB #203 overall.

RB:
1.11 Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB #11 overall.
4.06 Gordon, Melvin SDC RB #54 overall.
8.06 Martin, Doug TBB RB #118 overall.

9.11 Freeman, Devonta ATL RB #139 overall.
11.11 Woodhead, Danny SDC RB #171 overall.

WR:
2.06 Hilton, T.Y. IND WR #22 overall.
7.11 Smith, Steve BAL WR #107 overall.
10.06 Stills, Kenny MIA WR #150 overall.
15.11 Sanu, Mohamed CIN WR #235 overall.

16.06 Huff, Josh PHI WR #246 overall.

TE:
5.11 Fleener, Coby IND TE #75 overall.
6.06 Daniels, Owen DEN TE #86 overall.

K:
12.06 Barth, Connor DEN PK #182 overall.

18.06 Murray, Patrick TBB PK #278 overall.

DEF:
14.06 Panthers, Carolina #214 overall.
17.11 Buccaneers, Tampa Bay Def #267 overall.

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Texans Bucs

Didn't invest much but see some upside in both

Forte Spiller KRobinson Artis Payne

Forte is dependable not sure how the saints situation shakes out but some insurance there with robinson. no faith in stewart to stay healthy

Beckham Crabtree Evans Maclin Charles Johnson

This has to be a top 3 WR crew in the league

Cook Davis Toilolo

After thinking all offseason tamme was the guy in ATL I am reversing course and grabbing toilolo late everywhere

Probably not enough balls to go around but he has shown something this summer and I like the upside

Novak Walsh

Lions Steelers

Could be a sleeper team although I don't know how many playoff points I will see

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While I still can, let me celebrate the fact that I'm pretty sure this is the first time in all these years I've been in first place.

Too bad about Austin Seferian-Jenkins.

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