My general approach: have projections, make a VBD-style adjustment to compare positions, follow the numbers except for judgment calls when guys are close or there's breaking news, adjust position values slightly as the draft progresses.
1.16 WR Julio Jones ATL, 2.01 WR Calvin Johnson DET
I am willing to bet on Julio Jones and Calvin Johnson being good at football.
3.16 TMQB Saints (Brees) NO, 4.01 RB Lamar Miller MIA
I normally don't take QBs early in this format, but at this stage Brees is a gimme. He is in the midst of a precipitous decline in production, to the point where he didn't even break 5000 passing yards last year (instead leading the league with a measly 4952). The other pick was a tough call between Miller, RB Morris, QB Romo, and WR Tate; I basically just went with my gut on it (and my gut may have only made that choice because I like Miller more in dynasty.)
5.16 TE Delanie Walker TEN, 6.01 WR Amari Cooper OAK
Not really thrilled with either of these guys. It feels nuts to be taking Delanie ****** Walker in the 5th round, but that's what the numbers say. Cooper is part of a pack of similarly valued WRs (DJax, Maclin, Roddy) and I decided to buy into his upside. Sad to see Tate & Cameron last so long and then go off the board a few picks before me; it's harder to be in position to catch those falling guys when picking on the turn.
7.16 WR Steve Smith BAL, 8.01 Joique Bell DET
More boring old guys. I've thought of myself as a
Joique Bell pessimist all summer, but at some point there is value in a committee back who catches passes and gets goalline carries. Smith and Boldin (who went a pick before) each have a pretty good shot to hold on for another year. Also considered Owen Daniels & SEA Def.
9.16 TE Jordan Reed WAS, 10.01 RB Tre Mason STL
Reed was a nice value here. Huge upside with 2 PPR, though the injury risk is a bigger concern in this format. Torn between Michael Floyd & Tre Mason on the second pick; decided that there is more likely to be good WR value available later (plus Floyd could easily miss a couple games to start the season). Hoping for Chester Taylor 2007 production. (Post-draft update: these picks are looking even better now that Paul & Paulsen are out for the season, and Gurley seems likely to miss a few games.)
11.16 TMQB Redskins (Griffin) WAS, 12.01 DEF Patriots NE
Washington has been QB19, QB20, and QB6 the past 3 years, and I'm getting them as the 25th TMQB off the board. Good value, and tons of upside with Griffin's legs. The Patriots have been one of the few consistent names among the top fantasy defenses, and they should get a couple extra games in the playoffs. Considered Charles Sims, Matt Bryant, and HOU Def.
13.16 WR Devin Funchess CAR, 14.01 DEF Ravens BAL
I'm betting that there will still be safe kickers left 2 rounds from now, and there are a whole bunch of RBs left that I rate similarly (after a last-minute downgrade to David Johnson), so I went elsewhere here. Funchess wasn't actually at the top of my projections list for WRs, but I like the mix of upside and safety that comes with early-round rookie WRs on teams with a thin WR corps (last year I got Beckham at a similar point in the draft). (Post-draft update: and now Carolina's receiving corps is even thinner; apparently I have tons of teammate injury luck.) Baltimore's D was at the top of my projections, by a decent amount over everyone else left. Considered Lorenzo Taliaferro, Josh Brown, Malcom Floyd, and Andrew Hawkins.
15.16 PK Cairo Santos KC, 16.01 PK Mike Nugent CIN
Can't wait any longer on kickers without risking being stuck with PK ??? CLE. My guess is that Alex Smith squads end up with more FGAs; I wonder if the numbers back that up. The Nugent pick is the one that I spent the most time researching this draft - there is some risk with his hamstring injury & competition from Obarski, but I have him projected for 15 pts more than any other kickers left if he plays. I decided that the risk is low enough. Considered Robbie Gould.
17.16 RB Damien Williams MIA, 18.01 WR Brian Hartline CLE
These picks might be the most fun part of the draft. I like the value here: Williams is looking like the #2 RB on a team that has wanted to limit the workload of its #1. (Though owning both him & Miller is a bit of a negative in this format - handcuffs are bad when you have no bench and want more variance.) Hartline is looking like a starting WR, with a reasonable shot to be his team's top receiver and maybe even return to the 1000 yard plateau. I considered a lot of other guys here, and was especially tempted by Lorenzo Taliaferro (who could earn a good-sized committee role alongside Forsett; I'm not a fan of Allen) and Brandon Coleman (who shockingly went undrafted despite the buzz and the
targets that need replacing in New Orleans). I ended up going with the safer, boringer options who have a higher probability of reaching a decent floor. Also looked at Brandon Bolden, Lance Dunbar, Jacquizz Rodgers, Terrance West, Marqise Lee, Kamar Aiken, Stedman Bailey, Greg Jennings, and Gary Barnidge.
Other comments: I'm feeling pretty happy with this team, and especially happy to have gotten Brees, Reed, Griffin, and Funchess. TEs were underrated for the first half of the draft (with guys like Kelce, Bennett, Cameron, H Miller, Rudolph, Daniels, and Clay falling farther than they should), but picking on the turn I was unable to take advantage of it until Reed finally fell to me. To my eyes, ryheaps, Inch by Inch, BroncoFreak_2K3, and BassNBrew look like the best non-me teams.