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Projections are LIVE (1 Viewer)

Thanks for your hard work! Good indication that the first run of VBD 2003 ain't far behind!From a quick glance, Travis Henry was a little surprising. ;)

 
Send the criticisms in - We can take them. Usually after this many hours on something I start to lose common sense on things. We will be tweaking these (and providing comments to the tweaks on a weekly basis from here going forward)

 
Why the love for Marty Booker? Are you assuming that Kordell will lock in on him ala Hines Ward the beginning of last year and throw him the ball 20 times a game?I guess i can understand that, but drafting Booker ahead of K. Robinson, Toomer. Chad Johnson - I wouldn't do it!Great to have the meat to fight over though...

 
Could someone please post at least a partial list? I can't access the main site from work...not that I'm spending time at work checking out ff sites or anything.

 
Very interesting to see that you guys have Portis about even with LT and Ricky. I agree with that but I suspect there are many who think LT and Ricky separate themselves from the pack.

 
From Joe B. regarding Jason Whitten....

I think the Whitten thing will be one of the more interesting things to watch. Hearing there's a lot of growing up to do for Mr. Whitten who thinks he's Shockey Jr. I think he'll either be real good or a total bust this season. Parcells will have fun with this one.J
Don't see him on the TE projections. I agree that he's either boom or bust, but I'm thinking boom. Guess y'all are thinking bust.
 
Very nice work, David. Thanks for the effort. Some of the numbers may be a tad bit conservative (Republican, I take it) ;) but good job nonetheless.

 
Also think a few other WRs (some mid-level guys) are getting not much love...doesn't seem like much change in the WRs from what they were last year.I also really doubt Redman throws 14 Ints this year (and not due to lack of playing time)

 
I think the Whitten thing will be one of the more interesting things to watch. Hearing there's a lot of growing up to do for Mr. Whitten who thinks he's Shockey Jr. I think he'll either be real good or a total bust this season. Parcells will have fun with this one.
We are going to need to see more in training camp but we are intrigued and will be watching this closely.
 
Why are 19 QBs projected to throw 20+ touchdowns?

Amount of QBs to throw 20+ touchdowns (by season):

2002 -- 12

2001 -- 10

2000 -- 11

1999 -- 9

1998 -- 13

1997 -- 9

1996 -- 7

1995 -- 12

1994 -- 8

1993 -- 4

 
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Jesus...People ##### and complain because there are no projections to look at and when they do come out, all they do is ##### and complain about them...

 
[QUOTE=']Jesus...People ##### and complain because there are no projections to look at and when they do come out, all they do is ##### and complain about them...
[/QUOTE]Criticism != Complain
 
Pretty conservative predictions for the most part I thought. Especially at WR and TE where you have only two 100 catch guys at WR and I think the top four TE's numbers are all a little low. I think Shockey will have around 80 catches this year and Heap will have more than 5 Td's (I have him for 8). Besides that, they look good upon first glance. I did find it interesting that you have Deuce tied for the league lead in carries on such a dynamic offense. I hope you're right! I think his Td total will be a lot better though. He had 16 last year and at least 3-4 were called back. That Saints threw a lot in the redzone last year and it hurt them, I think he gets around 14 rushing td to go along with 3 rec.Thanks for all the hard work!! ;)

 
We have this debate every year Wade. Yes that is historically more than will happen every year. Just like we have predicted more 3,000 passers that will end the year with. But tell me how someone is suppose to predict Donovan McNabb not hrowing for 3,000 yards last year or Kurt Warner finishing below the Top 40 QB, etc. We factor some injury risk obviously and also the possibility of benching, but I think it would be crazy to try and figure out who gets hurt and who does not. Add up all of our passing TDs and passing yards and they jive with what the NFL will do. If someone has a way to predict McNabb scenarios I would like to hear it?I am guessing Wade you want to turn this into an AVT vs VBD argument, but frankly I think AVT is much more flawed that trying to predict actual numbers. Yes individual QB numbers will be inflated in projections, but will be accurate from a per game perspective. And that's how we believe people should draft these players.

 
Why are 19 QBs projected to throw 20+ touchdowns?
Don't want to put words in Dodds' mouth but probably because at this point, he's assuming the majority of QBs play all 16 games for their teams; so Team TD Passes = QB TD Passes at this go around. From that perspective, it's not very far off base:Numbers of Teams with 20+ TD Passes

2002 - 19

2001 - 14
2000 - 16
1999 - 18
1998 - 17
Average - 16.8CHEERS!

 
Why are 19 QBs projected to throw 20+ touchdowns?
Probably because injuries are not predicted. Last year, there were 22 QBs who were on pace for 20+ TDs had they played a full season (by my quick count).
 
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And only 1 breaks 4000 yards
Amount of QBs that throw for 4000+ yards (by season):2002 -- 4

2001 -- 2

2000 -- 3

1999 -- 5

1998 -- 2

1997 -- 0

1996 -- 3

1995 -- 4

1994 -- 3

1993 -- 2

 
Why are 19 QBs projected to throw 20+ touchdowns?

Amount of QBs to throw 20+ touchdowns (by season):

2002 -- 12

2001 -- 10

2000 -- 11

1999 -- 9

1998 -- 13

1997 -- 9

1996 -- 7

1995 -- 12

1994 -- 8

1993 -- 4
Since this averages about 10 players, which 10 do you think will ONLY make this list? I will take it one step further. I am willing to bet a $1,000 after you name your 10, that I can name a player who will throw for 20 TDs this year.You name your 10 that will do it.

I will name 1 player that you missed. If my player throws for 20 TDs I win and you owe me a thousand dollars. If my player fails to throw for 20 TDs, you win and I will pay you a thousand dollars.

 
Send the criticisms in - We can take them. Usually after this many hours on something I start to lose common sense on things. We will be tweaking these (and providing comments to the tweaks on a weekly basis from here going forward)
Ok, i will :excited: You have Deuce leading the league in carries(ok, tied with LT2) If that happens, Deuce will surely finish in the top 3 backs, if not the TOP, no way will he finish 7th(like you have projected)
 
THANK YOU

On the surface these look pretty good....will tear into them now and see what I can find to whine about :excited:

 
We have this debate every year Wade. Yes that is historically more than will happen every year. Just like we have predicted more 3,000 passers that will end the year with. But tell me how someone is suppose to predict Donovan McNabb not hrowing for 3,000 yards last year or Kurt Warner finishing below the Top 40 QB, etc. We factor some injury risk obviously and also the possibility of benching, but I think it would be crazy to try and figure out who gets hurt and who does not. Add up all of our passing TDs and passing yards and they jive with what the NFL will do. If someone has a way to predict McNabb scenarios I would like to hear it?
Fair enough. I think Maurile was talking about this same issue, using projections not to take a snapshot of the future, but to help group players into categories (like great, really good, good, pretty good, fair, bad, etc.) for draft day.My only concern, and the reason I focus on the QBs, is because this overprojecting of TDs does affect the WR and RB projection numbers. And I'm not sure how to compensate for that.
I am guessing Wade you want to turn this into an AVT vs VBD argument, but frankly I think AVT is much more flawed that trying to predict actual numbers. Yes individual QB numbers will be inflated in projections, but will be accurate from a per game perspective. And that's how we believe people should draft these players.
No, I don't want to debate AVT in this thread. (Had enough of that yesterday.) I'm very interested in projections, is all, and I'm trying to discover a way to project without over-projecting. It is very difficult, and I wanted to learn your thought process, David, as much as I wanted to pick a fight with you. :excited:
 
Why are 19 QBs projected to throw 20+ touchdowns?
Don't want to put words in Dodds' mouth but probably because at this point, he's assuming the majority of QBs play all 16 games for their teams; so Team TD Passes = QB TD Passes at this go around. From that perspective, it's not very far off base:Numbers of Teams with 20+ TD Passes

2002 - 19

2001 - 14
2000 - 16
1999 - 18
1998 - 17
Average - 16.8CHEERS!
Actually I know they won't all play all the games. QBs getting hit by 6' 8" people are going to go down every year. I am just asking how does one predict that?I stand by the logic to draft QBs (using VBD) as if QBs are going to play the majority of the season (unless it looks like QBBC). I am going to rank McNabb on him playing close to afull season and not the 10 games he played last year. I do that because people draft multiple QBs on their fantasy teams. If they lose a QB for a few games, they plug something in until the starter is back again. The per game fantasy value is most relevant.

 
One other thing. Y'all really think that Carson Palmer will be 2nd string over Shane Matthews in Cincinnati? (I don't...even if the Bengals are out of it by Halloween...as usual.)

 
My only concern, and the reason I focus on the QBs, is because this overprojecting of TDs does affect the WR and RB projection numbers.  And I'm not sure how to compensate for that.
Team passing TDs are not over-projected. Some individual starting QBs' TDs are over-projected and backup QBs' TDs are underprojected -- but which ones? For instance, Kordell Stewart's passing TDs were over-projected last year, but that didn't affect Ward's or Burress's TD totals because Maddox picked up the slack. Also, Jim Miller's, Donovan McNabb's, Jay Fiedler's, and Brian Griese's TDs were all over-projected. But their teams' TDs weren't.
 
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How on earth does after a season where RW gets 324 after a few bad games because of Lucas, with a last half of season where he for the first time since being in the NFL, showed his break away speed and his growing confidince from last year does he drop 40 points? :wacko: :hot: Well thanks for something to help for the drafting though :excited:

 
Since this averages about 10 players, which 10 do you think will ONLY make this list? I will take it one step further. I am willing to bet a $1,000 after you name your 10, that I can name a player who will throw for 20 TDs this year.You name your 10 that will do it.I will name 1 player that you missed. If my player throws for 20 TDs I win and you owe me a thousand dollars. If my player fails to throw for 20 TDs, you win and I will pay you a thousand dollars.
Hold on, there. :hot: This isn't what I want to fight about.I have no confidence that I can pick all of the 10 (or so) QBs that will throw 20+ touchdowns. I can (and will, in league play) try to do it...but it won't happen.If the bet was, I pick my ten, and then you get the other nine...and whoever got closer would win the $1000...maybe I'd do it. :excited: But the bet as you've laid it out is a no-winner for me. I can't pick 'em that well.What I really care about, right at the moment, is how one compensates for this (well-reasoned) overprojection as it relates to the WR and RB numbers.
 
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Fair enough. I think Maurile was talking about this same issue, using projections not to take a snapshot of the future, but to help group players into categories (like great, really good, good, pretty good, fair, bad, etc.) for draft day.My only concern, and the reason I focus on the QBs, is because this overprojecting of TDs does affect the WR and RB projection numbers. And I'm not sure how to compensate for that.

I am guessing Wade you want to turn this into an AVT vs VBD argument, but frankly I think AVT is much more flawed that trying to predict actual numbers.  Yes individual QB numbers will be inflated in projections, but will be accurate from a per game perspective.  And that's how we believe people should draft these players.
No, I don't want to debate AVT in this thread. (Had enough of that yesterday.) I'm very interested in projections, is all, and I'm trying to discover a way to project without over-projecting. It is very difficult, and I wanted to learn your thought process, David, as much as I wanted to pick a fight with you. :excited:
This is where you are wrong. It does not affect the numbers because the numbers correlate with production in the NFL. Add up all of our passing TDs and they match what the NFL will do. That is the same with yards, etc. You have to look at the whole poulation of players and make things add up to what the league will do. These projections do that. They overinflate starting QB production because it is very hard to predict a backup's production since by definition a lot of times that production happens due to injury. We have counted that production. It is just put against the starter for reasons I stated before.
 
Pennington 17? Martin 18th? No Jets WRs in the top 25? These rankings are #*#$*Actually, they look pretty good. Congrats on getting them done, I'll save my criticisms for another day.

 
Booker2003: 98-1196-7(Proj)2002: 97-1183-62001: 100-1071-8He's a boring pick to be sure, but I'd say his numbers seem very reasonable.

 
For those feeling Rookies are under projected, keep in mind that the jobs are won in camps for most teams, these projctions will change quite a bit come draft day-

 
Good job. The one thing I was questioning was Henry at #5 ahead of Holmes and Deuce, and Tiki at 8 ahead of Alexander. But, I like that this list is different than others I have seen.

 
Michael Pittman gonna only play 3 games? I say all or none. If they are gonna be upset about his doings, then I don't see him playing at all. If he is just fined/suspended, it will only be for 3 or 4 games. Just my opinion.

 

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