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2015 Survivor Pool Discussion - Week 2 was Black Sunday! (1 Viewer)

Raider Nation

Devil's Advocate
It's that time again. I have a feeling there will be historic Survivor Pool bloodshed in week 1 this year.

The Packers are the biggest favorite at -6.5, and even that is scary with Nelson out and Cobb iffy.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams

Miami Dolphins at Washington Redskins

Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Detroit Lions at San Diego Chargers

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals

Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders

Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers

 
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So let's have some opinions here on week 1. Do you burn Green Bay right off the bat or take a chance somewhere else?

Seattle and Dallas are possible,but they both have division games and they can be tight.

Thoughts?

 
So let's have some opinions here on week 1. Do you burn Green Bay right off the bat or take a chance somewhere else?

Seattle and Dallas are possible,but they both have division games and they can be tight.

Thoughts?
I tend to go with division games week 1 since we really don't know anything. I'll start looking at my options next week as we're closer
 
I like home teams if I can get em.

San Diego or Dallas would be my pick week one. As stated above, the division game is scary, but I think NYG are a train wreck right now. San Diego should hold off a Detroit team that looks underwhelming outside of Calvin.

For the record, I don't think I will enter any survivor pools this year. That could change, of course.

 
As a Chargers fan, theres no way I'm picking them Week 1 against that defensive front.
I know lots and lots of Chargers fans and the one thing you all have in common is how little faith you have in your team. I've never been around more people who hate their own team than Chargers fans. (I lived in SD for 3 years) So, while I understand your reasoning, you saying you are Chargers fan, to me, hurts your point of view here.

Maybe you are not that kind of fan, but since you didn't offer an alternative, I will stick with my assessment.

 
I like home teams if I can get em.

San Diego or Dallas would be my pick week one. As stated above, the division game is scary, but I think NYG are a train wreck right now. San Diego should hold off a Detroit team that looks underwhelming outside of Calvin.

For the record, I don't think I will enter any survivor pools this year. That could change, of course.
agree with most everything you posted here. But I'm just not impressed with San Diego right now. No home team gives me a good feeling in week 1 but the best bet IMO is Arizona.

 
Tough week one, don't like much at all but I think Miami has the Redskins for lunch.
Was thinking Miami also,Suh and the gang should control the run game and I have a hard time believing Cousins is the answer at

QB. Miami O SHOULD put up a decent point total.

 
Not sure how Cleveland runs or passes well enough to put up a single point on the Jets D with the weaponry they're bringing in. With Gino out, I don't think the Jets O bails CLE out with turnovers, either.

Probably the way I'll roll.

 
Im a homer, but to me it looks like the Cowboys might be the pick. The G men look like hit garbage comin into the season....plenty of injuries on D.....overall, #### week for survivor.

I see how Miami, Seattle, or GB could be attracrive, but I'm not a fan of takin road teams in these pools

 
It sucks for those of us who buy multiple entries in the huge pools. One or two of them will surely get popped right off the bat.

 
It sucks for those of us who buy multiple entries in the huge pools. One or two of them will surely get popped right off the bat.
but on the other side of that, you could easily eliminate as much as half of your competition week one. I forget the year, but the first time I ever did a survivor pool, 73% were on Miami to beat Houston week one, and Houston went into Miami and beat the crap out of them. Really knocked down the competition.

Granted, most survivor pools I have been in are winner take all, so it doesn't really matter unless you are the last man standing.

 
Im a homer, but to me it looks like the Cowboys might be the pick. The G men look like hit garbage comin into the season....plenty of injuries on D.....overall, #### week for survivor.

I see how Miami, Seattle, or GB could be attracrive, but I'm not a fan of takin road teams in these pools
Was thinking Cowboys too and still may take them. Being an Eagles fan I try an stay away from East matchups though, especially early.

 
i think the Jets or Miami are the play. i hate week 1 cause weird crap always happens, but i think this week is much more of a "fade" week, and Cle and Was look like good teams to go against

 
i think the Jets or Miami are the play. i hate week 1 cause weird crap always happens, but i think this week is much more of a "fade" week, and Cle and Was look like good teams to go against
I'm kind of in agreement on this. I ran some preliminary Week 1 trend metrics during the off-season (don't have them in front of me right now) and I believe the Jets have one of the longest home opener winning streaks in the league right now. I even rolled the dice with them last year in their home opener against the Raiders. And the mess that is the 2015 Browns looks to be even less daunting than a mediocre Oakland team playing on the road... especially with a steadier QB in Fitzpatrick and the return of Revis. Hopefully Leonard Williams gets himself healthy for that matchup as well.

I think Miami wins but I always prefer to avoid road warrior picks early on if I can help it.

Might as well quickly double-check to make sure I didn't imagine this trend...

- 2014 Week 1 - NY Jets defeated Oakland at home (19-14)

- 2013 Week 1 - NY Jets defeated Tampa Bay at home (18-17)

- 2012 Week 1 - NY Jets defeated Buffalo at home (48-28)

- 2011 Week 1 - NY Jets defeated Dallas at home on Sunday night (27-24)

- 2010 Week 1 - Monday night loss to the Ravens at home (10-9)

- 2009 Week 1 - NY Jets defeated Houston on the road (24-7); Week 2 - NY Jets defeated New England at home (16-9)

- 2008 Week 1 - NY Jets defeated Miami on the road (20-14)

- 2007 Week 1 - Loss to the Patriots at home (38-14)

So 4 straight Week 1 home wins, 5 straight Week 1 afternoon game wins, 4 straight home opener afternoon game wins, 6-2 Week 1 record over the past eight seasons. Streaks are made to be broken... but are the Browns capable enough to be an outlier? I have my doubts.

 
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NM on the Jets call. I'm all over NE now.

Steelers always struggle in NE. It was touch and go till Brady was a slam dunk to start, but with all the personnel losses piling up for PIT, combined with all the emotional momentum tied up in hosting the post-SB home opener, plus the deflategate overturnage...I think the Steelers get steamrolled. NE by 10+ in this one.

Final answer.

 
Yea with brady back NE is prolly the pick. How's Pittsburghs o-line lookin? Steelers missing a lot of key pieces to start the season. Their defense kinda sucks too, no?

 
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As a Chargers fan, theres no way I'm picking them Week 1 against that defensive front.
I know lots and lots of Chargers fans and the one thing you all have in common is how little faith you have in your team. I've never been around more people who hate their own team than Chargers fans. (I lived in SD for 3 years) So, while I understand your reasoning, you saying you are Chargers fan, to me, hurts your point of view here.

Maybe you are not that kind of fan, but since you didn't offer an alternative, I will stick with my assessment.
Hi, let me introduce you to "Listens to Philly Sports talk radio" Eagles fan.

 
Manster said:
Yea with brady back NE is prolly the pick. How's Pittsburghs o-line lookin? Steelers missing a lot of key pieces to start the season. Their defense kinda sucks too, no?
O-line looks okay, even w/o Pouncey. The interior has enough depth to cope. Their defense "kinda sucks" is putting it awfully kindly. They made Manuel to Clay look like Fouts to Winslow. Gronk may score half his points for the year in week one.

 
Two pools,going with The J-E-T-S in one and Arizona in the other.

Browns offense appears putrid,Jets D should keep them under 10 while Fitz leads the O to enough field goals to win

Taking Cardinals at home,their D should keep Brees and company in check enough for Palmer to exploit a bad,banged up

Saints D.

Of course,this is until I maybe,might change my mind...or not.

 
Manster said:
Yea with brady back NE is prolly the pick. How's Pittsburghs o-line lookin? Steelers missing a lot of key pieces to start the season. Their defense kinda sucks too, no?
O-line looks okay, even w/o Pouncey. The interior has enough depth to cope. Their defense "kinda sucks" is putting it awfully kindly. They made Manuel to Clay look like Fouts to Winslow. Gronk may score half his points for the year in week one.
Seems like a no brainer, but begs the question of strategy on trying to "save" the stronger teams for later in the season when "guppies" have used them all. Always struggle with this, as you have to be in it to win it, so opening this for broader discussion of strategies employed.

 
Manster said:
Yea with brady back NE is prolly the pick. How's Pittsburghs o-line lookin? Steelers missing a lot of key pieces to start the season. Their defense kinda sucks too, no?
O-line looks okay, even w/o Pouncey. The interior has enough depth to cope. Their defense "kinda sucks" is putting it awfully kindly. They made Manuel to Clay look like Fouts to Winslow. Gronk may score half his points for the year in week one.
Seems like a no brainer, but begs the question of strategy on trying to "save" the stronger teams for later in the season when "guppies" have used them all. Always struggle with this, as you have to be in it to win it, so opening this for broader discussion of strategies employed.
More interested in "saving" the stronger teams for the weeks that most of the matchups suck to try and get right. Week one happens to be one this year.

 
Want another reason to consider taking the Jets over the Browns?

Cleveland has only one ONCE in Week 1 since rejoining the league as an expansion team in 1999.

Their single win was at home in a divisional game against the Ravens back in 2004.

Their Week 1 record in their current incarnation is 1-15. They have lost 10 straight season openers.

Active Week 1 streaks heading into 2015...

Houston - WON 5
Detroit - WON 4
NY Jets - WON 4
Philadelphia - WON 4
San Francisco - WON 4
Denver - WON 3
Miami - WON 2
Seattle - WON 2
Tennessee - WON 2

Cleveland - LOST 10
NY Giants - LOST 4
Green Bay - LOST 3
Jacksonville - LOST 3
Oakland - LOST 3
Baltimore - LOST 2
San Diego - LOST 2
Tampa Bay - LOST 2
Washington - LOST 2
New England at Home - WON 7 (consider this to be money now that Brady is back in the saddle)
Atlanta at Home - WON 5
Houston at Home - WON 4
NY Jets at Home - WON 4
Philadelphia on Road - WON 4
Arizona at Home - WON 3
Denver at Home - WON 3
San Francisco at Home - WON 2
Tennessee on Road - WON 2

NY Giants on Road - LOST 6 (being served up for the Cowboys)
Oakland at Home - LOST 5
Indianapolis on Road - LOST 4
New Orleans on Road - LOST 3
Buffalo at Home - LOST 2
Cleveland on Road - LOST 2
Green Bay on Road - LOST 2
Pittsburgh on Road - LOST 2

Week 1 Records (over the past 5 seasons / over the past 10 seasons)

New England (4-1 | 9-1)
NY Jets (4-1 | 7-3)
Philadelphia (4-1 | 7-3)
San Francisco (4-1 | 7-3)
Pittsburgh (2-3 | 7-3)
Houston (5-0 | 6-4)
Arizona (4-1 | 6-4)
Chicago (4-1 | 6-4)
Detroit (4-1 | 6-4)
Baltimore (3-2 | 6-4)
Denver (3-2 | 6-4)
Seattle (3-2 | 6-4)
Atlanta (2-3 | 6-4)
Dallas (2-3 | 6-4)
New Orleans (2-3 | 6-4)
Tennessee (3-2 | 5-5)
Washington (3-2 | 5-5)
Cincinnati (2-3 | 5-5)
Green Bay (2-3 | 5-5)
Minnesota (2-3 | 5-5)
San Diego (2-3 | 5-5)
Indianapolis (1-4 | 5-5)
Miami (3-2 | 4-6)
Buffalo (2-3 | 4-6)
Jacksonville (2-3 | 4-6)
NY Giants (1-4 | 4-6)
Kansas City (2-3 | 3-7)
Tampa Bay (2-3 | 3-7)
Carolina (1-4 | 3-7)
St. Louis (1-4 | 2-8)
Oakland (1-4 | 1-9)
Cleveland (0-5 | 0-10)
Home Opener Streaks (along with records over the past 8 seasons)

Atlanta (WON 7 | 7-1)
Arizona (WON 5 | 7-1)
Denver (WON 3 | 7-1)
New England (WON 2 | 7-1)
Houston (WON 5 | 6-2)
Chicago (6-2)
Washington (6-2)
NY Jets (WON 4 | 5-3)
Buffalo (5-3)
Dallas (5-3)
San Diego (5-3)
San Francisco (5-3)
Tampa Bay (LOST 2 | 4-4)
Oakland (3-5)
St. Louis (2-6)
Jacksonville (LOST 3 | 2-6)

Road Opener Streaks (along with records over the past 8 seasons)

Philadelphia (WON 6 | 6-2)
Tennessee (WON 2 | 5-3)
Green Bay (LOST 3 | 5-3)
Indianapolis (4-4)
Baltimore (3-5)
Carolina (3-5)
Cincinnati (3-5)
New Orleans (3-5)
NY Giants (LOST 2 | 3-5)
Pittsburgh (LOST 4 | 3-5)
Kansas City (2-6)
Miami (2-6)
Minnesota (2-6)
Detroit (LOST 3 | 2-6)
Seattle (1-7)
Cleveland (LOST 3 | 1-7)
Active Win-Loss Streaks

New England (WON 18 @ HOME IN GAMES THAT ACTUALLY MATTERED... deflated footballs make a difference)
Seattle (WON 6 IN REGULAR SEASON)
Carolina (WON 4 IN REGULAR SEASON)
Dallas (WON 4 IN REGULAR SEASON)
Pittsburgh (WON 4 IN REGULAR SEASON)
St. Louis (LOST 3)
Chicago (LOST 5)
Cleveland (LOST 5)
Tampa Bay (LOST 6)
Tennessee (LOST 10)
 
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I'm liking the N.E. argument. Brady emotion, no Bell or Bryant, terrible Steelers D.
New England is winning that game. The decision is whether you want to burn them early or save them for a cake matchup later in the season. They host the Jags in Week 3, they visit the Colts (whom they've beaten the last 6 times they've played each other) in Week 6, host the Jets in Week 7, host the Redskins in Week 9, host the Bills in Week 11 (Pats haven't lost a game that meant anything at home to Buffalo in 15 years) and host the Titans in Week 15.

 
I'm liking the N.E. argument. Brady emotion, no Bell or Bryant, terrible Steelers D.
New England is winning that game. The decision is whether you want to burn them early or save them for a cake matchup later in the season. They host the Jags in Week 3, they visit the Colts (whom they've beaten the last 6 times they've played each other) in Week 6, host the Jets in Week 7, host the Redskins in Week 9, host the Bills in Week 11 (Pats haven't lost a game that meant anything at home to Buffalo in 15 years) and host the Titans in Week 15.
there is zero chance I'm taking the Pats against the Colts this year. but yes, there will be weeks where the Pats are even more of a lock than this week.

 
Want another reason to consider taking the Jets over the Browns?

Cleveland has only one ONCE in Week 1 since rejoining the league as an expansion team in 1999.

Their single win was at home in a divisional game against the Ravens back in 2004.

Their Week 1 record in their current incarnation is 1-15. They have lost 10 straight season openers.

Active Week 1 streaks heading into 2015...

Houston - WON 5
Detroit - WON 4
NY Jets - WON 4
Philadelphia - WON 4
San Francisco - WON 4
Denver - WON 3
Miami - WON 2
Seattle - WON 2
Tennessee - WON 2

Cleveland - LOST 10
NY Giants - LOST 4
Green Bay - LOST 3
Jacksonville - LOST 3
Oakland - LOST 3
Baltimore - LOST 2
San Diego - LOST 2
Tampa Bay - LOST 2
Washington - LOST 2
New England at Home - WON 7 (consider this to be money now that Brady is back in the saddle)
Atlanta at Home - WON 5
Houston at Home - WON 4
NY Jets at Home - WON 4
Philadelphia on Road - WON 4
Arizona at Home - WON 3
Denver at Home - WON 3
San Francisco at Home - WON 2
Tennessee on Road - WON 2

NY Giants on Road - LOST 6 (being served up for the Cowboys)
Oakland at Home - LOST 5
Indianapolis on Road - LOST 4
New Orleans on Road - LOST 3
Buffalo at Home - LOST 2
Cleveland on Road - LOST 2
Green Bay on Road - LOST 2
Pittsburgh on Road - LOST 2

Week 1 Records (over the past 5 seasons / over the past 10 seasons)

New England (4-1 | 9-1)
NY Jets (4-1 | 7-3)
Philadelphia (4-1 | 7-3)
San Francisco (4-1 | 7-3)
Pittsburgh (2-3 | 7-3)
Houston (5-0 | 6-4)
Arizona (4-1 | 6-4)
Chicago (4-1 | 6-4)
Detroit (4-1 | 6-4)
Baltimore (3-2 | 6-4)
Denver (3-2 | 6-4)
Seattle (3-2 | 6-4)
Atlanta (2-3 | 6-4)
Dallas (2-3 | 6-4)
New Orleans (2-3 | 6-4)
Tennessee (3-2 | 5-5)
Washington (3-2 | 5-5)
Cincinnati (2-3 | 5-5)
Green Bay (2-3 | 5-5)
Minnesota (2-3 | 5-5)
San Diego (2-3 | 5-5)
Indianapolis (1-4 | 5-5)
Miami (3-2 | 4-6)
Buffalo (2-3 | 4-6)
Jacksonville (2-3 | 4-6)
NY Giants (1-4 | 4-6)
Kansas City (2-3 | 3-7)
Tampa Bay (2-3 | 3-7)
Carolina (1-4 | 3-7)
St. Louis (1-4 | 2-8)
Oakland (1-4 | 1-9)
Cleveland (0-5 | 0-10)
Home Opener Streaks (along with records over the past 8 seasons)

Atlanta (WON 7 | 7-1)
Arizona (WON 5 | 7-1)
Denver (WON 3 | 7-1)
New England (WON 2 | 7-1)
Houston (WON 5 | 6-2)
Chicago (6-2)
Washington (6-2)
NY Jets (WON 4 | 5-3)
Buffalo (5-3)
Dallas (5-3)
San Diego (5-3)
San Francisco (5-3)
Tampa Bay (LOST 2 | 4-4)
Oakland (3-5)
St. Louis (2-6)
Jacksonville (LOST 3 | 2-6)

Road Opener Streaks (along with records over the past 8 seasons)

Philadelphia (WON 6 | 6-2)
Tennessee (WON 2 | 5-3)
Green Bay (LOST 3 | 5-3)
Indianapolis (4-4)
Baltimore (3-5)
Carolina (3-5)
Cincinnati (3-5)
New Orleans (3-5)
NY Giants (LOST 2 | 3-5)
Pittsburgh (LOST 4 | 3-5)
Kansas City (2-6)
Miami (2-6)
Minnesota (2-6)
Detroit (LOST 3 | 2-6)
Seattle (1-7)
Cleveland (LOST 3 | 1-7)
Active Win-Loss Streaks

New England (WON 18 @ HOME IN GAMES THAT ACTUALLY MATTERED... deflated footballs make a difference)
Seattle (WON 6 IN REGULAR SEASON)
Carolina (WON 4 IN REGULAR SEASON)
Dallas (WON 4 IN REGULAR SEASON)
Pittsburgh (WON 4 IN REGULAR SEASON)
St. Louis (LOST 3)
Chicago (LOST 5)
Cleveland (LOST 5)
Tampa Bay (LOST 6)
Tennessee (LOST 10)
All VERY important once uniforms start playing football games.

 
Yeah, I have to go Jets. I do like Miami though too. Both Washington and Cleveland are hot garbage. Tough decision.

 
Miami, Bolts, and Cowboys were my first thoughts when I was taking my first look?

Considering Miami and Jets....like BOlts too.

 
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I want to get the Broncos early, before the weather turns cold, and Peyton catches arthritis, or the gout or something, Not sure about this matchup, tho.

 
By the way, this is the most badda$$$$ Survivor pool I do:

www.scottscottscott.com

Anyone can enter, 100 bucks to get in, and there were over 5,000 entries last year.

 
I'm leaving the Pats alone. Hoping the Steelers can somehow win a shootout, because I have a feeling that most people will be on N.E.

 
I trust Aaron Rodgers at Chicago to pull out a win. Chicago cannot score enough without Marshall anymore, White, and maybe not even Jeffrey. add John Fox to that equation and I don't know how they break 20. I don't feel that confident with any other team. I'm not putting my season on the line with the Jets. I'm not going against Big Ben. I'm not trusting that Cousins doesn't throw for 350 and the Dolphins play down to their level of competition like they do often with Philbin as their coach. Give me Aaron Rodgers against a dismal Chicago offense and I will see you in week 2 after I have had a chance to see all the other teams in action.

 
I have 4 picks going right now. I chose the below 4 teams:

Patriots - Brady is on a war path, and the putrid Steelers D can not stop him. This will be a blowout, should bet the over without even looking.

Dolphins - I would not be surprised if Washington is the worst team in the league this year. Dolphins should hold them to under 10 - 13 at most.

Jacksonville - Obligatory upset pick. If I'm right I burned a bad team early.

Dallas - I think this is a good bet to go with also. Get after Eli while he has no momentum and his weapons are dinged up.

 

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