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Bell, Charles, or Peterson..any real differences here? (2 Viewers)

BroncoFreak_2K3

sucker for Orange
I think these guys are all fairly the same player. Schedules (except for Bell's first two games) are pretty much equal.

Are there really any differences in either of these 3 guys because I'm not seeing any.

 
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Assuming health all around, AP is going to get a higher volume of touches. First, because that's the Norv way, second, because that's NOT the Reid way, and third, because Bell's guaranteed to miss a minimum of two games.

AP's also the best bet among the three to get a ton of goalline chances. Again, only because of Norv's history. His bellcows are notoriously prodigious at the GL -- it's just the way he runs the offense.

And then, even though he's not the pass catching threat Bell is, Norv once again steps to the plate, here. He's not really a switch-it-up, third-down-back kind of OC. His studs have always been around 50 catches a year, which won't be much less than Bell sees, given the two-game delay in his production.

All in all, it's not like you can go wrong, but there's just enough tantalizing in Peterson's role to nudge him to the top for me. But I sure as hell wouldn't argue with anyone who went for either of the other guys (or Lacy).

ETA: I'd also suggest that for whatever reason, there's an aura of "legend-ness" around AP that the other guys don't possess. That's sort of trivial, but I think if all three guys put up 150/2 games for a month straight, Peterson is the guy who has the highest resale value, just based on name and perception.

 
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Assuming health all around, AP is going to get a higher volume of touches. First, because that's the Norv way, second, because that's NOT the Reid way, and third, because Bell's guaranteed to miss a minimum of two games.

AP's also the best bet among the three to get a ton of goalline chances. Again, only because of Norv's history. His bellcows are notoriously prodigious at the GL -- it's just the way he runs the offense.

And then, even though he's not the pass catching threat Bell is, Norv once again steps to the plate, here. He's not really a switch-it-up, third-down-back kind of OC. His studs have always been around 50 catches a year, which won't be much less than Bell sees, given the two-game delay in his production.

All in all, it's not like you can go wrong, but there's just enough tantalizing in Peterson's role to nudge him to the top for me. But I sure as hell wouldn't argue with anyone who went for either of the other guys (or Lacy).

ETA: I'd also suggest that for whatever reason, there's an aura of "legend-ness" around AP that the other guys don't possess. That's sort of trivial, but I think if all three guys put up 150/2 games for a month straight, Peterson is the guy who has the highest resale value, just based on name and perception.
Excellent stuff :thumbup:

I would lean towards AP because I do think he has a lot left in the tank and, like you say, the Norv factor.

 
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Assuming health all around, AP is going to get a higher volume of touches. First, because that's the Norv way, second, because that's NOT the Reid way, and third, because Bell's guaranteed to miss a minimum of two games.

AP's also the best bet among the three to get a ton of goalline chances. Again, only because of Norv's history. His bellcows are notoriously prodigious at the GL -- it's just the way he runs the offense.

And then, even though he's not the pass catching threat Bell is, Norv once again steps to the plate, here. He's not really a switch-it-up, third-down-back kind of OC. His studs have always been around 50 catches a year, which won't be much less than Bell sees, given the two-game delay in his production.

All in all, it's not like you can go wrong, but there's just enough tantalizing in Peterson's role to nudge him to the top for me. But I sure as hell wouldn't argue with anyone who went for either of the other guys (or Lacy).

ETA: I'd also suggest that for whatever reason, there's an aura of "legend-ness" around AP that the other guys don't possess. That's sort of trivial, but I think if all three guys put up 150/2 games for a month straight, Peterson is the guy who has the highest resale value, just based on name and perception.
Excellent stuff :thumbup:

I would lean towards AP because I do think he has a lot left in the tank and, like you say, the Norv factor.
Still, it's close enough that even just being a "fan" of either of the other guys or teams is probably enough to tip the scales, IMO. There's almost no point trying to get things right within tiers. Try to get the tiers right, then make yourself happy within their confines.

 
All great. Slight lean towards Charles because his backup looked so good last year so you can insure that pick a little.

 
Redraft, ADP all day long.

Dynasty, Bell all day long

But that's not saying that ADP will run circles around the other two. They will be great too. Just ADP will be better.

In dynasty, Bell WILL run circles around these guys because ADP has maybe 2 years left, and probably the same for Charles considering his smaller size.

 
I agree that they're the same based on my preferences -- if I walk out of my drafts with any of the three (or Lynch or Lacy), I'm happy. But no, they're not the same players. For example, I would say Charles is the safest and Peterson is probably the highest risk/reward.

 
Well if you're talking about this year alone.

Charles I think has the highest ceiling.

Peterson is in a better offense imo than Charles, which could increase his floor.

Bell is in the best offense, but they lost Pouncey and you're only getting him for 14 weeks.

I wouldn't be upset with any of them, but I think there are cases to be made for all of them.

 
Assuming health all around
I stopped reading after this. ADP is at a higher risk of injury due to his age and spending a year away from football, so the rest of your points are moot. You can't just bury your head in the sand.

 
I like Peterson out of this group. I think he is pissed about last year, he has had a year to heal and train and will be ready to go bananas in Norv's system. 2,000 yards is not outside of the realm of possibility and his floor is very high as well.

Next I like Charles...just because risking an 0-2 start with your #1 pick being out isn't something I'm interested in conceding with Bell. I think they are close to the same value, but not having your #1 pick for 21-23% of the regular season seems risky.

 
Well if you're talking about this year alone.

Charles I think has the highest ceiling.

Peterson is in a better offense imo than Charles, which could increase his floor.

Bell is in the best offense, but they lost Pouncey and you're only getting him for 14 weeks.

I wouldn't be upset with any of them, but I think there are cases to be made for all of them.
Not picking a fight, but considering that I just posted the exact opposite sentiment upthread, I'm curious as to why you think that.

 
Assuming health all around
I stopped reading after this. ADP is at a higher risk of injury due to his age and spending a year away from football, so the rest of your points are moot. You can't just bury your head in the sand.
:rolleyes:

These guys are all healthy, and there's no reason to have higher expectation of injury for one over the other. It's one thing to put one's head in the sand, another to invent imaginary reasons to panic. Bad post.

 
Assuming health all around
I stopped reading after this. ADP is at a higher risk of injury due to his age and spending a year away from football, so the rest of your points are moot. You can't just bury your head in the sand.
I would make an even money bet that Charles misses time this year.I would also bet that Charles misses more time than ADP.
I think the potential for injury is high for every RB. I'm leaning toward Charles because of the ability to back him up with Davis and still have a top RB if/when he goes down. I don't think McKinnon/Asiata or Williams gives you the same production.

 
Assuming health all around
I stopped reading after this. ADP is at a higher risk of injury due to his age and spending a year away from football, so the rest of your points are moot. You can't just bury your head in the sand.
I remember what he did the last time he spent a year away from the football, but it happened more than a year ago so...

I don't count that against him at all.

 
I like Peterson out of this group. I think he is pissed about last year, he has had a year to heal and train and will be ready to go bananas in Norv's system. 2,000 yards is not outside of the realm of possibility and his floor is very high as well.

Next I like Charles...just because risking an 0-2 start with your #1 pick being out isn't something I'm interested in conceding with Bell. I think they are close to the same value, but not having your #1 pick for 21-23% of the regular season seems risky.
I don't think it would be all that hard to get DeAngelo late in the draft and he should fit in nicely for a couple games. I wouldn't count on the guy for much more than that, but 2 games? It's not like you get a 0 at one RB for 2 games because Bell is out.

 
Jamal Charles age 28 (29 Dec 27)

2008 67ra 357 yards (5.3) 0 TD 39 targets 27 receptions 272 yards 1TD 629 total yards 1TD
2009 190ra 1120 yards (5.9) 7TD 55 targets 40 receptions 297 yards 1TD 1417 yards 8TD
2010 230ra 1467 yards (6.4) 5TD 64 targets 45 receptions 468 yards 3TD 1935 total yards 8TD
2011 12ra 83 yards (6.9) 0TD 6 targets 5 receptions 9 yards 1TD 92 total yards 1TD
2012 285ra 1509 yards (5.3) 5TD 49 targets 35 receptions 236 yards 1TD 1745 total yards 6TD
2013 259ra 1287 yards (5.0) 12TD 104 targets 70 receptions 693 yards 7TD 1980 total yards 19TD
2014 206ra 1033 yards (5.0) 9TD 59 targets 40 receptions 291 yards 5TD 1324 total yards 14TD

Career per game stats 95 games 13.2ra/game 72.2ypg .4 TD/game 4tgt/game (69% catch rate) 2.8rec/game 23.9ypg .2 TD/game

2015 numbers based off of career per game stats: 211 rushing attempts 1155 yards 6.4TD 64 targets 45 receptions 382 yards 3.2TD 1537 total yards 9.6TD

211.3 fantasy points standard.
13.2 fantasy points per game.

256.3 fantasy points PPR.
16 fantasy points per game PPR.

LeVeon Bell age 23 (24 Feb 18)

2013 244ra 860 yards (3.5) 8TD 66 targets 45 receptions 399 yards 0TD 1259 total yards 8TD
2014 290ra 1361 yards (4.7) 8TD 105 targets 83 receptions 854 yards 3TD 2215 total yards 11TD

Career per game stats 29 games 18.4ra/game 76.6ypg .5 TD/game 5.9tgt/game (75% catch rate) 4.4rec/game 43.2ypg .1TD/game

2015 numbers based off of career per game stats: 294 rushing attempts 1226 yards 8TD 94 targets 70 receptions 691 yards 1.6TD 1917 total yards 9.6TD

We already know that Bell will miss two games, so removing the per game stats for those two games would be 257.6 rushing attempts 1072 rushing yards 7TD 82.6 targets 61.6 receptions 605 yards 1.4TD 1677 total yards 8.4 TD

167.68 fantasy points standard.
11.98 fantasy points per game.

229.28 fantasy points PPR.
16.38 fantasy points per game.

I want to point out that Bells receptions/game and receiving yards/game are significantly better than Charles, however I think this is in part due to a smaller sample size. Bell is obviously an excellent receiving RB, but over time I would expect his reception stats to fall closer to Charles as long as he continues to see high volume targets. However Bell does have a much better QB than Charles has had, which is another part of that difference.

According to these numbers Charles is a better option in both standard and PPR except in PPR points/game which is .38 points higher than Charles.

Adrian Peterson age 30 (31 March 21)

2007 238ra 1341 yards (5.6) 12TD 28 targets 19 receptions 268 yards 1TD 1609 total yards 13TD
2008 363ra 1760 yards (4.8) 10TD 39 targets 21 receptions 125 yards 0TD 1885 total yards 10TD
2009 314ra 1383 yards (4.4) 18TD 57 targets 43 receptions 436 yards 0TD 1819 total yards 18TD
2010 283ra 1298 yards (4.6) 12TD 50 targets 36 receptions 341 yards 1TD 1639 total yards 13TD
2011 208ra 970 yards (4.7) 12TD 24 targets 18 receptions 139 yards 1TD 1109 total yards 13TD
2012 348ra 2097 yards (6.0) 12TD 51 targets 40 receptions 217 yards 1TD 2314 total yards 13TD
2013 279ra 1266 yards (4.5) 10TD 40 targets 29 receptions 171 yards 1TD 1437 total yards 11TD
2014 21ra 75 yards (3.6) 0TD 3 targets 2 receptions 19 yards 0TD 93 total yards 0TD

Career per game stats 104 games 19.8ra/game 98ypg .8 TD/game 2.8 tgt/game (71% catch rate) 2 rec/game 16.5ypg .04 TD/game

2015 numbers based off of career per game stats: 317 rushing attempts 1568 yards 12.8TD 45 targets 32 receptions 264 yards .6TD 1832 total yards 13.44 TD

183.2
263.84 fantasy points standard.
16.49 fantasy points per game.

295.84 fantasy points PPR.
18.49 fantasy points per game.


Peterson provides more points in both scoring systems and this assumes he only has 32 receptions.

 
I had the #1 overall pick in my draft this year and went Charles. ADP is 30. I don't take RBs #1 overall when they are 30 years old. Way too many of them fall off a cliff. Then I pulled up strength of schedule and saw the Steelers have the most difficult schedule in the NFL this year, so went Charles.

 
I had the #1 overall pick in my draft this year and went Charles. ADP is 30. I don't take RBs #1 overall when they are 30 years old. Way too many of them fall off a cliff. Then I pulled up strength of schedule and saw the Steelers have the most difficult schedule in the NFL this year, so went Charles.
I can agree with all that ... except KC's willingness to limit Charles touches last year.

Now with Davis and C West. Hmmm.

246 touches in 15 games on a 9-7 team fighting for the playoffs.

 
Week 14

MIN @ ARZ [Thursday Night] - 4 days after playing SEA in MIN

KC vs SD

PIT @ CIN

Week 15

MIN vs CHI

KC @ BAL

PIT vs DEN

Week 16

MIN vs NYG

KC vs CLE

PIT @ BAL

 
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Week 14

MIN @ ARZ [Thursday Night] - 3 days after playing SEA in MIN

KC vs SD

PIT @ CIN

Week 15

MIN vs CHI

KC @ BAL

PIT vs DEN

Week 16

MIN vs NYG

KC vs CLE

PIT @ BAL
I know we're largely splitting hairs here, but picking RBs based on their perceived strength-of-schedule in the fantasy playoffs? :no:

 
Week 14

MIN @ ARZ [Thursday Night] - 3 days after playing SEA in MIN

KC vs SD

PIT @ CIN

Week 15

MIN vs CHI

KC @ BAL

PIT vs DEN

Week 16

MIN vs NYG

KC vs CLE

PIT @ BAL
I know we're largely splitting hairs here, but picking RBs based on their perceived strength-of-schedule in the fantasy playoffs? :no:
I think if you're close on them, looking at fantasy playoff matchups is a decent way to break some ties.

However, none of the three really have THAT much easier/harder playoff schedules then the others. So it doesn't help this time.

 
One risk I that I don't think people are really considering with Bell is that if he smokes pot again he gets a longer suspension. Not saying this will happen but it is possible and would be catastrophic to his value similar to Josh Gordon. I'm not sure how to discount that risk but maybe if you like tow players the same, use it as a tiebreaker?

 
One risk I that I don't think people are really considering with Bell is that if he smokes pot again he gets a longer suspension. Not saying this will happen but it is possible and would be catastrophic to his value similar to Josh Gordon. I'm not sure how to discount that risk but maybe if you like tow players the same, use it as a tiebreaker?
Not worried about that since they cut "Bad Influence" Blount.

:sarcasm:

 
Week 14

MIN @ ARZ [Thursday Night] - 3 days after playing SEA in MIN

KC vs SD

PIT @ CIN

Week 15

MIN vs CHI

KC @ BAL

PIT vs DEN

Week 16

MIN vs NYG

KC vs CLE

PIT @ BAL
I know we're largely splitting hairs here, but picking RBs based on their perceived strength-of-schedule in the fantasy playoffs? :no:
I think if you're close on them, looking at fantasy playoff matchups is a decent way to break some ties.

However, none of the three really have THAT much easier/harder playoff schedules then the others. So it doesn't help this time.
You're guessing how nine potential defenses will be performing three months from now. That's basically dartboard territory.

Maybe if a guy has SEA/STL/MIA, you could worry a teeny bit.

 
Leaning Peterson in redraft format. I also don't think Lacy should be left out of this conversation considering he is on the best offense out of the bunch.

 
Leaning Peterson in redraft format. I also don't think Lacy should be left out of this conversation considering he is on the best offense out of the bunch.
Agreed. Also heard a theory (I think from Bill Barnwell) that Lacy could actually end up being the biggest beneficiary of the Nelson injury. His logic was that, with Adams as WR3, they were more likely to go three wide. But with two untested guys, they might go to more two TE sets and run a little more.

 

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