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Thomas Rawls, RB, CMU/Seahawks (2 Viewers)

I don't see how these guys aren't hurt on every play. This guy was playing his ### off, really bad luck. Hopefully he heals up and can still have the same running style.

Seahawks are taking a pretty big hit here.

 
Anyone have a prognoses going forward? Is this an injury that won't limit him going forward? Not sure how the torn ligaments impact his full recovery. Thanks.

 
eNdblu said:
That sucks.. He was set for a massive day. 44 yards on his only and only series :(

Hopefully they give him a legit shot at the starting job next season

DangeRuss, Lockett, and Baldwin are set to continue their big games the rest of the way w/o Rawls or Lynch
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I salute you Rawls. I needed every bit of those 4.4 points u gave me for that win. Thanks for being a stud. Now Hightower next man up.

 
eNdblu said:
Brock Huard @BrockESPN

Best News I've heard today is Thomas Rawls doesn't need surgery. No plate, no screws, no long term ramifications
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So what's everyone's best guess as to how things play out for Rawls next season? We have Lynch still the starter and then probably Rawls but now we have a Christine Michael resurgence. Does Lynch and Michael matter or are we holding onto Rawls in dynasty for 2016. Maybe C-Mike won't be back?

 
I am holding Rawls assuming Lynch will be cut to save cash. Michaels will be gone and I see another RB drafted by them to save money.

 
Also holding Rawls. Even if Lynch comes back, he's near the top of the list of RBs who may not finish the season, making Rawls a sought after handcuff with potential starter value.

If CMike stays, he'll be #3. Team only got him back because they were down to the bottom of their RB barrel.

 
Mingooch said:
I am holding Rawls assuming Lynch will be cut to save cash. Michaels will be gone and I see another RB drafted by them to save money.
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I think the look of the 2016 team will be 100% determined by the success of the 2015 team. If they make it to the Superbowl again, I think Lynch retires.

If they come up short but Michaels plays well over the next three weeks (assuming Lynch comes back at all), he is brought back in 2016 to compete/contrast with Rawls in some sort of time share.

Lynch realistically doesn't come back until the 2nd playoff game, they don't need him to beat Washington.

 
Unless I'm missing something, at this point in their careers, give me Rawls over Lynch all day long. It makes zero sense for Seattle to bring Lynch back, based on his cap hit, age, Rawls' cheap salary, and his superb showing this season. In dynasty leagues, there is just no way I trade this guy. I think at this time next year, we are talking about him as a top 10 fantasy back.

 
FGITLOTR said:
Unless I'm missing something, at this point in their careers, give me Rawls over Lynch all day long. It makes zero sense for Seattle to bring Lynch back, based on his cap hit, age, Rawls' cheap salary, and his superb showing this season. In dynasty leagues, there is just no way I trade this guy. I think at this time next year, we are talking about him as a top 10 fantasy back.
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In real life, if I am Seattle I bring Lynch back for another year. Rawls is coming off a broken ankle and is a second year player. No reason not to have Lynch come back if he is motivated. Then Rawls takes over fully in 2017.

 
Gandalf said:
FGITLOTR said:
Unless I'm missing something, at this point in their careers, give me Rawls over Lynch all day long. It makes zero sense for Seattle to bring Lynch back, based on his cap hit, age, Rawls' cheap salary, and his superb showing this season. In dynasty leagues, there is just no way I trade this guy. I think at this time next year, we are talking about him as a top 10 fantasy back.
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In real life, if I am Seattle I bring Lynch back for another year. Rawls is coming off a broken ankle and is a second year player. No reason not to have Lynch come back if he is motivated. Then Rawls takes over fully in 2017.
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Disagree. Good reasons:

- Save $6.5M on their cap next year

- Inability to stay healthy this year

- Ineffectiveness this year

Given his age, his mileage, and his lack of health and effectiveness this season, it is more likely he is in decline than that he will rebound to prior form.

Now consider how well the team has played without him.

Now consider the presence of an apparent strong successor in Rawls and maybe other good/solid backs in Michael, Brown, and/or Jackson, along with the team's seeming ability to find good RBs.

Put it all together and it seems obvious to me that the team should let him go if he doesn't retire.

 
mnmplayer said:
rjv said:
mnmplayer said:
ImTheScientist said:
matttyl said:
in terms of future draft picks in a dynasty league, what's he worth? a top 4 pick in 2016? more? less?
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They like him, but Im not sure he is the long term solution. I think they will look to replace Lynch with a RB in the 2016 draft or 2017 draft. The best hope is you get the end of this year and 2016 out of Rawls.

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Also remember they could bring back Christine for 2016 camp if it doesn't work out with Washington ...
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You can't be serious about CM? The guy can't hold down a job. My god turbin beat him out for god sake
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Trading him away for a 7th round pick implies value. I think its obvious that Cowboy's didn't have what it took to leverage that value. Washington is next man up to try and harness this Beasts talent and I am not convinced their coaches have what it takes either. When it comes to talent like Christine, it takes years to cultivate and try to harness the wild horse that he is. Seattle is really the only team that has a chance since they have been trying for years and came close, but barely missed. My logic goes like this.

a. Christine is a beast

b. He will play somewhere

c. Seattle is the only team that has proven they can get him to produce, therefore its the only option and WILL HAPPEN eventually. Just more time with the coaching staff is needed to try and harness this guys power and talent. Its obviously there or all these teams wouldn't be taken chances on the guy, right?

Therefore the conclusion should be obvious as talent almost always wins ...
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Just because I needed a good laugh ... I was being facetious at the time and Christine busts out a 100 yard game to end the season. LMAO

 
Looking like Seattle will part ways with 'Beast Mode'.

Allllllllllllllllll aboard.

Thomas 'The Train' Rawls about to leave the station.

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http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/01/10/marshawn-lynch-undoubtedly-at-the-end-of-the-line-in-seattle/

Marshawn Lynch undoubtedly at the end of the line in SeattlePosted by Mike Florio on January 10, 2016, 12:35 PM EST

In theory, he could return to play later in the postseason. But with Seahawks running backMarshawn Lynch skipping the trip to Minnesota following a seven-game absence after core-muscle surgery, the question becomes whether Lynch will be a Seahawk in 2016.

He almost definitely won’t be.

Due to make $9 million in base salary with a cap number of $11.5 million, Lynch surely would lose a financial face-off with Thomas Rawls, who is due to make $525,000, with a cap number of $530,000. Apart from the very real contractual differences (and not nearly as dramatic production gap), Lynch has been a handful, to say the least, for the Seahawks in recent years. (Look for plenty of examples to emerge, Percy Harvin-style, once the relationship ends.)

Also, and as PFT previously has noted, it’s not a coincidence that the best seven-game stretch of quarterback Russell Wilson’s career has come with Lynch out of the building. Whether it’s the $20 million per year contract, the decision to pass and not run with the Super Bowl on the line, or the “Go Hawks!” perception that Wilson is too aligned with management, Lynch and Wilson haven’t had an ideal relationship.

Lynch’s decision to not play on Sunday — which by all appearances was his decision — could be interpreted in many ways. Maybe it’s a push back against offensive line coach Tom Cable’s public statement that Lynch must “adapt” to the team’s new offense. Maybe it’s a business decision, aimed at keeping Lynch healthy in the event he’s looking for a new team.

Adding to the actual or perceived friction between player and team is the basic question of whether Lynch should have made the trip to Seattle, in order to keep the Vikings thinking until 90 minutes before kickoff that Lynch would play. While Lynch never travels when he’s not active, this would have been a great opportunity to make an exception.

Lynch didn’t make an exception for the Seahawks, and the Seahawks are getting closer to the point where they no longer have to make excuses for Lynch. Whenever Seattle’s season ends, Lynch’s time with them will end, too.
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Bracie Smathers said:
Looking like Seattle will part ways with 'Beast Mode'.

Allllllllllllllllll aboard.

Thomas 'The Train' Rawls about to leave the station.

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http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/01/10/marshawn-lynch-undoubtedly-at-the-end-of-the-line-in-seattle/

Marshawn Lynch undoubtedly at the end of the line in SeattlePosted by Mike Florio on January 10, 2016, 12:35 PM EST

In theory, he could return to play later in the postseason. But with Seahawks running backMarshawn Lynch skipping the trip to Minnesota following a seven-game absence after core-muscle surgery, the question becomes whether Lynch will be a Seahawk in 2016.

He almost definitely won’t be.

Due to make $9 million in base salary with a cap number of $11.5 million, Lynch surely would lose a financial face-off with Thomas Rawls, who is due to make $525,000, with a cap number of $530,000. Apart from the very real contractual differences (and not nearly as dramatic production gap), Lynch has been a handful, to say the least, for the Seahawks in recent years. (Look for plenty of examples to emerge, Percy Harvin-style, once the relationship ends.)

Also, and as PFT previously has noted, it’s not a coincidence that the best seven-game stretch of quarterback Russell Wilson’s career has come with Lynch out of the building. Whether it’s the $20 million per year contract, the decision to pass and not run with the Super Bowl on the line, or the “Go Hawks!” perception that Wilson is too aligned with management, Lynch and Wilson haven’t had an ideal relationship.

Lynch’s decision to not play on Sunday — which by all appearances was his decision — could be interpreted in many ways. Maybe it’s a push back against offensive line coach Tom Cable’s public statement that Lynch must “adapt” to the team’s new offense. Maybe it’s a business decision, aimed at keeping Lynch healthy in the event he’s looking for a new team.

Adding to the actual or perceived friction between player and team is the basic question of whether Lynch should have made the trip to Seattle, in order to keep the Vikings thinking until 90 minutes before kickoff that Lynch would play. While Lynch never travels when he’s not active, this would have been a great opportunity to make an exception.

Lynch didn’t make an exception for the Seahawks, and the Seahawks are getting closer to the point where they no longer have to make excuses for Lynch. Whenever Seattle’s season ends, Lynch’s time with them will end, too.
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I wouldn't trust Florio regarding anything Seattle. Keep in mind he said last offseason that Wilson wouldn't be playing for the Seahawks in 2016 and he has repeatedly stated the Lynch wouldn't be with the team in 2014 and also 2015.

Florio is a hack.

 
biju said:
Bracie Smathers said:
Looking like Seattle will part ways with 'Beast Mode'.

Allllllllllllllllll aboard.

Thomas 'The Train' Rawls about to leave the station.

-------------------------

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/01/10/marshawn-lynch-undoubtedly-at-the-end-of-the-line-in-seattle/

Marshawn Lynch undoubtedly at the end of the line in SeattlePosted by Mike Florio on January 10, 2016, 12:35 PM EST

In theory, he could return to play later in the postseason. But with Seahawks running backMarshawn Lynch skipping the trip to Minnesota following a seven-game absence after core-muscle surgery, the question becomes whether Lynch will be a Seahawk in 2016.

He almost definitely won’t be.

Due to make $9 million in base salary with a cap number of $11.5 million, Lynch surely would lose a financial face-off with Thomas Rawls, who is due to make $525,000, with a cap number of $530,000. Apart from the very real contractual differences (and not nearly as dramatic production gap), Lynch has been a handful, to say the least, for the Seahawks in recent years. (Look for plenty of examples to emerge, Percy Harvin-style, once the relationship ends.)

Also, and as PFT previously has noted, it’s not a coincidence that the best seven-game stretch of quarterback Russell Wilson’s career has come with Lynch out of the building. Whether it’s the $20 million per year contract, the decision to pass and not run with the Super Bowl on the line, or the “Go Hawks!” perception that Wilson is too aligned with management, Lynch and Wilson haven’t had an ideal relationship.

Lynch’s decision to not play on Sunday — which by all appearances was his decision — could be interpreted in many ways. Maybe it’s a push back against offensive line coach Tom Cable’s public statement that Lynch must “adapt” to the team’s new offense. Maybe it’s a business decision, aimed at keeping Lynch healthy in the event he’s looking for a new team.

Adding to the actual or perceived friction between player and team is the basic question of whether Lynch should have made the trip to Seattle, in order to keep the Vikings thinking until 90 minutes before kickoff that Lynch would play. While Lynch never travels when he’s not active, this would have been a great opportunity to make an exception.

Lynch didn’t make an exception for the Seahawks, and the Seahawks are getting closer to the point where they no longer have to make excuses for Lynch. Whenever Seattle’s season ends, Lynch’s time with them will end, too.
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I wouldn't trust Florio regarding anything Seattle. Keep in mind he said last offseason that Wilson wouldn't be playing for the Seahawks in 2016 and he has repeatedly stated the Lynch wouldn't be with the team in 2014 and also 2015.

Florio is a hack.
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While he is a hack Lynch won't be back at that number. I think they go with Rawls/Cmike or Rawls/draftpick and spend that money to retain some pending free agents, give Mike B a raise.

 
biju said:
Bracie Smathers said:
Looking like Seattle will part ways with 'Beast Mode'.

Allllllllllllllllll aboard.

Thomas 'The Train' Rawls about to leave the station.

-------------------------

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/01/10/marshawn-lynch-undoubtedly-at-the-end-of-the-line-in-seattle/

Marshawn Lynch undoubtedly at the end of the line in SeattlePosted by Mike Florio on January 10, 2016, 12:35 PM EST

In theory, he could return to play later in the postseason. But with Seahawks running backMarshawn Lynch skipping the trip to Minnesota following a seven-game absence after core-muscle surgery, the question becomes whether Lynch will be a Seahawk in 2016.

He almost definitely won’t be.

Due to make $9 million in base salary with a cap number of $11.5 million, Lynch surely would lose a financial face-off with Thomas Rawls, who is due to make $525,000, with a cap number of $530,000. Apart from the very real contractual differences (and not nearly as dramatic production gap), Lynch has been a handful, to say the least, for the Seahawks in recent years. (Look for plenty of examples to emerge, Percy Harvin-style, once the relationship ends.)

Also, and as PFT previously has noted, it’s not a coincidence that the best seven-game stretch of quarterback Russell Wilson’s career has come with Lynch out of the building. Whether it’s the $20 million per year contract, the decision to pass and not run with the Super Bowl on the line, or the “Go Hawks!” perception that Wilson is too aligned with management, Lynch and Wilson haven’t had an ideal relationship.

Lynch’s decision to not play on Sunday — which by all appearances was his decision — could be interpreted in many ways. Maybe it’s a push back against offensive line coach Tom Cable’s public statement that Lynch must “adapt” to the team’s new offense. Maybe it’s a business decision, aimed at keeping Lynch healthy in the event he’s looking for a new team.

Adding to the actual or perceived friction between player and team is the basic question of whether Lynch should have made the trip to Seattle, in order to keep the Vikings thinking until 90 minutes before kickoff that Lynch would play. While Lynch never travels when he’s not active, this would have been a great opportunity to make an exception.

Lynch didn’t make an exception for the Seahawks, and the Seahawks are getting closer to the point where they no longer have to make excuses for Lynch. Whenever Seattle’s season ends, Lynch’s time with them will end, too.
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I wouldn't trust Florio regarding anything Seattle. Keep in mind he said last offseason that Wilson wouldn't be playing for the Seahawks in 2016 and he has repeatedly stated the Lynch wouldn't be with the team in 2014 and also 2015.

Florio is a hack.
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In this case, I think he's right.

 
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that Lynch won't be back. Rawls has a bright future and I'm sure they will retain CMike or draft someone to share the load. That said, with no Lynch, Rawls is a top 10 back next season

 
FGITLOTR said:
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that Lynch won't be back. Rawls has a bright future and I'm sure they will retain CMike or draft someone to share the load. That said, with no Lynch, Rawls is a top 10 back next season
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Yep, that's exactly what everyone said last year too.

Seahawks plan to move on from Lynch after '14 season

Marshawn Lynch not expected back with Seahawks in 2015, per report

And then the rumors he wasn't coming back two years ago as well.

Could Marshawn Lynch retire from Seahawks?

I'm not saying this isn't the year, but if everyone keeps saying it every year eventually it will be correct. It's kind of like Sabertooth and the Adrian Peterson thread. Yes, he's going to eventually be right but these "predictions" are pretty pointless. Apparently, you don't need to be a rocket scientist to make a dumb guess. The guy is still under contract and that's about all anyone outside of Marshawn Lynch and the Seahawks know.

 
biju said:
FGITLOTR said:
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that Lynch won't be back. Rawls has a bright future and I'm sure they will retain CMike or draft someone to share the load. That said, with no Lynch, Rawls is a top 10 back next season
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Yep, that's exactly what everyone said last year too.

Seahawks plan to move on from Lynch after '14 season

Marshawn Lynch not expected back with Seahawks in 2015, per report

And then the rumors he wasn't coming back two years ago as well.

Could Marshawn Lynch retire from Seahawks?

I'm not saying this isn't the year, but if everyone keeps saying it every year eventually it will be correct. It's kind of like Sabertooth and the Adrian Peterson thread. Yes, he's going to eventually be right but these "predictions" are pretty pointless. Apparently, you don't need to be a rocket scientist to make a dumb guess. The guy is still under contract and that's about all anyone outside of Marshawn Lynch and the Seahawks know.
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The difference now is, in hindsight the Seahawks can see that they should have let him walk last offseason. They have already gone a year too late with him. Some might argue that it is better one year too late than one year too soon, but why would they want to risk being two years too late to let him go given his poor performance this year, questionable attitude, cap number next year, and the presence of multiple younger, cheaper, and as/more effective RBs on the team?

 
Just Win Baby said:
biju said:
FGITLOTR said:
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that Lynch won't be back. Rawls has a bright future and I'm sure they will retain CMike or draft someone to share the load. That said, with no Lynch, Rawls is a top 10 back next season
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Yep, that's exactly what everyone said last year too.

Seahawks plan to move on from Lynch after '14 season

Marshawn Lynch not expected back with Seahawks in 2015, per report

And then the rumors he wasn't coming back two years ago as well.

Could Marshawn Lynch retire from Seahawks?

I'm not saying this isn't the year, but if everyone keeps saying it every year eventually it will be correct. It's kind of like Sabertooth and the Adrian Peterson thread. Yes, he's going to eventually be right but these "predictions" are pretty pointless. Apparently, you don't need to be a rocket scientist to make a dumb guess. The guy is still under contract and that's about all anyone outside of Marshawn Lynch and the Seahawks know.
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The difference now is, in hindsight the Seahawks can see that they should have let him walk last offseason. They have already gone a year too late with him. Some might argue that it is better one year too late than one year too soon, but why would they want to risk being two years too late to let him go given his poor performance this year, questionable attitude, cap number next year, and the presence of multiple younger, cheaper, and as/more effective RBs on the team?
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Comparing this to Sabes and AP is ridiculous

 
Some media reports speculating Lynch may retire.

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Follow
Ian RapoportVerified account‏@RapSheet#Seahawks GM John Schneider tells @brockespn & @themikesalk he believes Marshawn Lynch is "leaning towards retirement." My understanding too

Bob Condotta ‏@bcondotta 10h10 hours ago
Bob Condotta Retweeted Jason Garrison

And my understanding is recouping the bonus, if they did that, would not impact the cap until 2017.

Follow
Jason Garrison‏@jasongarrison76@bellevue_joe @bcondotta so if he retires he does or doesn't count against the cap Bob? Thanks

Bob Condotta ‏@bcondotta 17h17 hours ago
Updated Marshawn Lynch story adding some of comments John Schneider made on @SportsRadioKJR: http://www.seattletimes.com/sports/seahawks/seahawks-running-back-marshawn-lynch-leaning-towards-retirement-gm-john-schneider-says-in-radio-interview/ …

Bob Condotta ‏@bcondotta 22h22 hours ago
Here's what John Schneider said on @710ESPNSeattle today about Marshawn Lynch, some other stuff: http://www.seattletimes.com/sports/seahawks/seahawks-running-back-marshawn-lynch-leaning-towards-retirement-gm-john-schneider-says-in-radio-interview/ …

Bob Condotta
‏@bcondotta
John Schneider on ESPN Seattle on Marshawn Lynch: "I'm under the impression he is leaning towards retirement.''
 
Haven't we seen this before from Lynch? I'll translate...

I'm leaning towards retirement = You should pay me more money.

Worked in the past for him... I just don't think he has the leverage anymore. Carroll, however, impresses me as a weaker (or at least pro-veteran) coach.

From a business standpoint, I think the Seahawks should move on. Wilson's growth at QB and RB production from younger players clearly makes Lunch expendable. There was always a "respect of the locker room" aura about Lynch but we'll see how real that still is...

From Marshawn's perspective, I think the time is right to retire. He has his money and a championship. Nice to hold onto your health too.

 
I can't imagine he will retire. For sure not before the Seahawks cut him. Too much money on the line, and for all the no talking to media nonsense the guy sure is cashing in on his fame with commercials, clothes, etc.

 
djmich said:
I can't imagine he will retire. For sure not before the Seahawks cut him. Too much money on the line, and for all the no talking to media nonsense the guy sure is cashing in on his fame with commercials, clothes, etc.
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Schefty is a 'fairly' reliable source.

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Adam Schefter ‏@AdamSchefter 10m10 minutes ago
Teammates still attempting to change his mind, but Seahawks' RB Marshawn Lynch has told some close to him he plans to retire, per sources

 
My only fear with Rawls is how he looks when he comes back from injury. Also, dude runs with a lot of attitude. Might lend himself to injury.

Would be surprised if Seattle doesn't add a back early. Don't think they've got their bellcow on the roster. Not that Michael and Rawls aren't talented but RB is a position where you need depth.

Might as well snag a rookie from college trying to earn a big payday.

 
Sigmund Bloom ‏@SigmundBloom 23h23 hours ago
Sigmund Bloom Retweeted Sheil Kapadia

"Rawls will take the lead, just as he did in 2015, and the Seahawks will fill in complementary pieces from there."
Sheil Kapadia‏@SheilKapadia
With Lynch out, what is the Seahawks' plan at RB this offseason and going forward? http://es.pn/1LgVHpA

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http://espn.go.com/blog/seattle-seahawks/post/_/id/18072/the-seahawks-plan-at-running-back-without-marshawn-lynch

The Seahawks' plan at running back without Marshawn Lynch...Lynch missed nine regular-season games, and Thomas Rawlsbroke out. He led the NFL in yards per carry (5.65) and average yards after contact (2.68). Rawls is one of five backs since the merger to run for at least 800 yards and average at least 5.5 YPC as a rookie.

Pete Carroll stresses competition, and publicly he will probably say that all the backs on the roster are going to battle it out for touches. But Rawls showed all the traits the Seahawks want from a young back: smarts, vision, toughness and explosiveness. The only question right now is how well he can rehab from the ankle injury he suffered in Week 14. If Rawls can get close to full strength (and that is the expectation), he should be the starter going into next season.

Of course, the Seahawks would like to give themselves as many options as possible in the event that Rawls suffers a setback or another injury. They generally rotate in a second ball-carrier anyway.

...It would be a surprise if they took a running back before the third day of the draft. More likely is that they bring in undrafted guys they like. That's how they ended up with Rawls last offseason.

Moves will be made, but the situation at running back without Lynch is not dire. Rawls will take the lead, just as he did for seven games in 2015, and the Seahawks will fill in complementary pieces from there.
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This situation reminds me a bit of Denver entering 2015. Rawls (CJA) looked great while carrying the load for a limited time the prior season, but it remains to be seen if he can be as successful as the featured workhorse for an entire season, now with higher expectations that didn't previously exist, and a lot of game tape for defenses to study.

Christine Michael (Hillman) is also in the picture, and also looked good in limited opportunities, so what, if any, will his role be for Seattle in 2016? Unlike Hillman, Michael has the physical size to be a lead RB.

As of now, Rawls appears to be in line for the lead RB role, but I can't help but wonder how things will transpire if Rawls suffers any setbacks /hesitancy due to the ankle injury, or struggles for any reason, and/or Michael rededicates himself and comes into camp playing like the guy Seattle reached for in the draft a few years ago.

Even if Rawls doesn't suffer any setbacks and looks great like he did in 2015, if Michael looks great too Seattle may go with the timeshare aporoach in an attempt to keep both of them healthy and effective. Lynch was a classic workhorse, but with Lynch gone that approach may be gone with him.

Much like CJA entering 2015, Rawls has a lot of exciting appeal, and a very high celing, but enough questions/unknowns to make his floor uncomfortably low based on his anticipated ADP.

 
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satch said:
This situation reminds me a bit of Denver entering 2015. Rawls (CJA) looked great while carrying the load for a limited time the prior season, but it remains to be seen if he can be as successful as the featured workhorse for an entire season, now with higher expectations that didn't previously exist, and a lot of game tape for defenses to study.

Christine Michael (Hillman) is also in the picture, and also looked good in limited opportunities, so what, if any, will his role be for Seattle in 2016? Unlike Hillman, Michael has the physical size to be a lead RB.

As of now, Rawls appears to be in line for the lead RB role, but I can't help but wonder how things will transpire if Rawls suffers any setbacks /hesitancy due to the ankle injury, or struggles for any reason, and/or Michael rededicates himself and comes into camp playing like the guy Seattle reached for in the draft a few years ago.

Even if Rawls doesn't suffer any setbacks and looks great like he did in 2015, if Michael looks great too Seattle may go with the timeshare aporoach in an attempt to keep both of them healthy and effective. Lynch was a classic workhorse, but with Lynch gone that approach may be gone with him.

Much like CJA entering 2015, Rawls has a lot of exciting appeal, and a very high celing, but enough questions/unknowns to make his floor uncomfortably low based on his anticipated ADP.
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Slight recency bias. It could also go this way:

Arian Foster made his NFL debut against the Tennessee Titans on November 23, 2009 and played on special teams. He scored his first NFL career touchdown against the Miami Dolphins in Miami on December 27, 2009 on a 17-yard run up the middle in the second quarter of the game. Foster then made his first career start against the New England Patriots on January 3, 2010 and ran for 119 yards and scoring twice on 20 carries. Overall Foster played six games, starting one, during the 2009 season, finishing with 257 yards and three touchdowns.

On opening day in 2010, September 12, Houston played the Indianapolis Colts. Foster replaced Steve Slaton, the 2009 starting running back, and broke many franchise records, rushing 33 times for 231 yards and 3 touchdowns
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Cold Dead Hands said:
satch said:
This situation reminds me a bit of Denver entering 2015. Rawls (CJA) looked great while carrying the load for a limited time the prior season, but it remains to be seen if he can be as successful as the featured workhorse for an entire season, now with higher expectations that didn't previously exist, and a lot of game tape for defenses to study.

Christine Michael (Hillman) is also in the picture, and also looked good in limited opportunities, so what, if any, will his role be for Seattle in 2016? Unlike Hillman, Michael has the physical size to be a lead RB.

As of now, Rawls appears to be in line for the lead RB role, but I can't help but wonder how things will transpire if Rawls suffers any setbacks /hesitancy due to the ankle injury, or struggles for any reason, and/or Michael rededicates himself and comes into camp playing like the guy Seattle reached for in the draft a few years ago.

Even if Rawls doesn't suffer any setbacks and looks great like he did in 2015, if Michael looks great too Seattle may go with the timeshare aporoach in an attempt to keep both of them healthy and effective. Lynch was a classic workhorse, but with Lynch gone that approach may be gone with him.

Much like CJA entering 2015, Rawls has a lot of exciting appeal, and a very high celing, but enough questions/unknowns to make his floor uncomfortably low based on his anticipated ADP.
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Slight recency bias. It could also go this way:
Arian Foster made his NFL debut against the Tennessee Titans on November 23, 2009 and played on special teams. He scored his first NFL career touchdown against the Miami Dolphins in Miami on December 27, 2009 on a 17-yard run up the middle in the second quarter of the game. Foster then made his first career start against the New England Patriots on January 3, 2010 and ran for 119 yards and scoring twice on 20 carries. Overall Foster played six games, starting one, during the 2009 season, finishing with 257 yards and three touchdowns.

On opening day in 2010, September 12, Houston played the Indianapolis Colts. Foster replaced Steve Slaton, the 2009 starting running back, and broke many franchise records, rushing 33 times for 231 yards and 3 touchdowns
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I'm not biased against Rawls at all. I like Rawls. I was a happy Rawls owner last year. My first paragraph included "Rawls looked great while carrying the load for a limited time the prior season", and my last paragrapgh included "Rawls has a lot of exciting appeal and a very high ceiling." He clearly has tremendous upside, I was merely pointing out similarities to CJA's situation after the 2014 season to offer a different perspective as well.

Edited to add that sometimes recency bias is warranted. RB timeshares are more prevalent now than ever. Even really good RBs find themselves in timeshares moreso today than they did in 2009. That doesn't mean I'm saying Rawls is destined for a timeshare, but I think it's fair to suggest that it's a legit possibility. It's just too common nowadays to ignore. Sure, Rawls could slide right into Lynch's workhorse role and be the #1 famtasy RB in 2016, but would anyone be shocked if Seattle took a slightly different approach now with Lynch gone? Not to mention many are already predicting a more pass happy approach with Wilson, whuch would also diminish the workhorse RB role in Seattle.

 
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I think the point was, you can point out similarities to CJA, and also point out similarities to Foster.

Rawls 2016 could be anywhere from a fantasy bust to a fantasy MVP.

 
davearm said:
I think the point was, you can point out similarities to CJA, and also point out similarities to Foster.

Rawls 2016 could be anywhere from a fantasy bust to a fantasy MVP.
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I agree with all of that. You can definitely make a case for a Foster type of outcome. I guess the similarities to CJA's situation in 2015 are fresher in my head than Arian Fosters situation in 2009.
 
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I'm not sure that the focus needs to necessarily just be on CJA. The list of RBs that took over in the 2nd half of the season, performed strongly, and then vastly underperformed the following year after being drafted highly is extensive. It's almost become an annual tradition.

Obviously there are guys for whom it works the other way, but the risk that these guys present is generally underrepresented in their ADP.

 
Pete Carol was asked about Rawls at the Combine and said they will expect a lot out of him.

The Hawks have been one of the rushing teams over the past few years.

Right now, the fantasy prospects look good for the 2016 season for RB Thomas Rawls.

http://nflspinzone.com/2016/02/26/seattle-seahawks-is-thomas-rawls-the-new-beast/


Seattle Seahawks: Is Thomas Rawls the New Beast?


...  Carroll, he seems confident that Rawls will be ready and qualified to inherit the work load.

“I just saw him two days ago. He’s in really good shape right now,” said Carroll to Bellat this week’s NFL Scouting Combine. “He’s getting ready for it. It’s going to be a haul for him, but he’ll make it for camp and be ready to go. And we’ll expect a lot out of him.”

That’s understandable considering the lofty standard of the Seattle running game in recent seasons. Only two teams in the NFL rushed for more yards than Carroll’s club in 2015 – that after the Seahawks led the league in rushing the previous year. Carroll’s squad, led primarily by “Beastmode,” ranked third in the NFL in rushing in 2012 and fourth the season after that...

 
Anyone else see this?  GM John Schneider was quoted recently as saying Rawls has the talent to be the guy, but that they are going to get a couple of people in to compete with him.  It's probably just GM speak but does give me a millisecond of pause.  I know Rawls was lights out when he played but on the other hand, he does have only 7 games under his belt and is coming back from a serious ankle injury.  Thoughts?  

 
Gandalf said:
Anyone else see this?  GM John Schneider was quoted recently as saying Rawls has the talent to be the guy, but that they are going to get a couple of people in to compete with him.  It's probably just GM speak but does give me a millisecond of pause.  I know Rawls was lights out when he played but on the other hand, he does have only 7 games under his belt and is coming back from a serious ankle injury.  Thoughts?  
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The organization is bought into the concept of competing for everything and that nothing is handed to you.  It's ensuring there is no comfort and that everyone is always working hard.  I don't really put much into this, however if (and yes, I'm sure there's a thread on him already) Christine Michael comes back for cheap I could see him actually impacting his carries a little.

 
biju said:
The organization is bought into the concept of competing for everything and that nothing is handed to you.  It's ensuring there is no comfort and that everyone is always working hard.  I don't really put much into this, however if (and yes, I'm sure there's a thread on him already) Christine Michael comes back for cheap I could see him actually impacting his carries a little.
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they literally have nothing behind Rawls, so from a real football perspective they need other bodies.

 
Christine Michael actually played okay after being resigned. Makes me slightly nervous because i always thought he was talented 

 
Biabreakable said:
I don't think this guy likes Rawls much.

I wish being 220lbs was the key to being a 3 down RB. That would make things pretty easy.
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I agree, but it's hard to ignore the 3 RBs drafted and the UDFA. I didn't realize that Alex Collins was regarded as a Rawls comp. Rawls may pan out, but his ADP just seems crazy high for a guy with such a small sample size and so much competition. He just went RB14 and RB11 in SSL1 and SSL2, which are PPR leagues. FFcalc has him RB8 in both formats.

 
FF Ninja said:
I agree, but it's hard to ignore the 3 RBs drafted and the UDFA. I didn't realize that Alex Collins was regarded as a Rawls comp. Rawls may pan out, but his ADP just seems crazy high for a guy with such a small sample size and so much competition. He just went RB14 and RB11 in SSL1 and SSL2, which are PPR leagues. FFcalc has him RB8 in both formats.
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He is being funny. For the most part I agree with his point about extrapolating small sample size and if the ADP on him in that high I wouldn't end up with Rawls either. He was being drafted 40th overall in the April dynasty ADP. He was taken with pick 56 in the current mock I am participating in. That's mid 4th round and lower than he was being drafted in April.

I thought the post draft trauma denial or whatever he said was pretty funny. His pro Prosise arguments are just as silly as the straw man positions he takes for Rawls owners. 

 
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Biabreakable said:
He is being funny. For the most part I agree with his point about extrapolating small sample size and if the ADP on him in that high I wouldn't end up with Rawls either. He was being drafted 40th overall in the April dynasty ADP. He was taken with pick 56 in the current mock I am participating in. That's mid 4th round and lower than he was being drafted in April.

I thought the post draft trauma denial or whatever he said was pretty funny. His pro arguments are just as silly as the straw man positions he takes for Rawls owners. 
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Yeah, that's why I skipped to that part. Didn't give too much credence to the part about Prosise being 220 lbs = work horse, but he could eventually develop into that. He's unlikely to make that transition as a rookie given his short college tenure at the position. But there are plenty of guys on the roster who could fill that early down role.

As for ADP, I was referencing redrafts, but 56 would still be a little rich for my blood in dynasty although that's just a single data point. Not sure he's actually falling to 56 in other drafts.

 
Listening to Pete Carroll gush about prosise on xmradio NFL channel.  Really likes his wide receiver skills and lined him up at wr in camp and said he was as good as the other guys.  Pat Kirwan seems to think that will be a big part of the team's offense this year - go five wide with Jimmy graham and prosise, catch the opponent with extra d backs and go to a 3 wide run play.   If that's effective it could take Rawls off the field a lot. 

 
bostonfred said:
Listening to Pete Carroll gush about prosise on xmradio NFL channel.  Really likes his wide receiver skills and lined him up at wr in camp and said he was as good as the other guys.  Pat Kirwan seems to think that will be a big part of the team's offense this year - go five wide with Jimmy graham and prosise, catch the opponent with extra d backs and go to a 3 wide run play.   If that's effective it could take Rawls off the field a lot. 
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It could also open some big holes for Rawls to run through and burn the clock.  They can co-exist.

 
bostonfred said:
Listening to Pete Carroll gush about prosise on xmradio NFL channel.  Really likes his wide receiver skills and lined him up at wr in camp and said he was as good as the other guys.  Pat Kirwan seems to think that will be a big part of the team's offense this year - go five wide with Jimmy graham and prosise, catch the opponent with extra d backs and go to a 3 wide run play.   If that's effective it could take Rawls off the field a lot. 
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I love Pat Kirwan and have listened to him for such a long time and I know he and Pete are really good friends so it would seem, at a basis, that there is a lot to listen to in this.  Maybe Prosise becomes the threat Harvin was supposed to be (sounds like similar things being said now vs. what they said back then).

With all that being said, it seems like Kirwan is often too far out ahead of the game. He often talks about things that seem like they will work and the other guys agree with him but it never comes to be. I remember him and Gil Brandt, who everyone could learn something from, talking years ago about how T.O. could have been a nightmare matchup in Dallas but the Cowboys simply never went that way.  Now, years later, several teams are using these types of WRs in the way they described way back when.

Anyway, if Pat is talking about his friend's team, I am listening but it sure makes it a little dicey considering they have Rawls and Alex there (who I think could be the guy in the right situation, himself). 

I think I feel better about him in PPR and understanding it could be Gio Bernard-esque in terms of hit big and miss big.

 
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