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The Official Kicker (K) Thread (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter SaintsInDome2006
- Start date
rockaction
Footballguy
Totally agreed, except for the Siebert in Pittsburgh part of the equation. That would honestly give me pause and I usually wouldn't note it but for that it does just that. I don't think Siebert has been that accurate nor deep, and he gets Heinz? Probably not great. I could be wrong, though. Consult a second source.
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Don Hutson
Footballguy
Tucker is the second highest scoring kicker this season. He has been a top 5 kicker throughout his career. He has a strong, accurate leg and is on a powerful offense. He is literally the only kicker in the NFL that has zero question marks. Weather would be the only reason to bench him. Unfortunately, all of his remaining games are outdoors in northern cities.
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rockaction
Footballguy
Don, how is Ben Watson working out as TE3 ROY? As for Tucker, no, weather wouldn't be the only league to bench him. In my league, he's PK5, nothing to sneeze at, but has had usage days due to Harbaugh's analytics. Money Badger averages more than Tucker per game. Money Badger's opposing quarterback this week? Drew Lock. Money Badger's weather. Sunny and mile high.
Money Badger it is, Don.
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VikingFrog
Footballguy
I’m sure this gets asked every year.
In an important matchup. What are people’s thoughts on playing the kicker of your opponents qb. Assuming he’s a decent kicker.
Example. I’m going against Rivers and have the choice between Badgely and Gonzales.
In my mind, Badgely provides me a chance to A) score if Rivers sputters B) secure a point if he scores.
Usually edges out for me.
Of course there’s always the off chance the QB throws for tons of TDs and you only get a few extra points.
In an important matchup. What are people’s thoughts on playing the kicker of your opponents qb. Assuming he’s a decent kicker.
Example. I’m going against Rivers and have the choice between Badgely and Gonzales.
In my mind, Badgely provides me a chance to A) score if Rivers sputters B) secure a point if he scores.
Usually edges out for me.
Of course there’s always the off chance the QB throws for tons of TDs and you only get a few extra points.
rockaction
Footballguy
It's how much variance you want your lineup to have. I can't explain it fully, but they are tied together in some way. I suppose in this case, they would be negatively correlated, meaning you'd have more spread between the two scores than normal.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
I stand by it. I didn't say that Watson would be TE3, I said it was his ceiling. He has played 79% of snaps since entering the starting lineup. He has traditionally been a receiving tight end but they have chosen to use him mostly as a blocker. With the Patriots having question marks at receiver and Brady liking the short passing game, it could have resulted in Watson putting up large fantasy stats. He might still explode for a 3 touchdown game. If you're going to be the kind of person that pulls up things from a month ago, at least do it in the appropriate thread. I don't need a stalker following me around.
I'm in a lot of leagues and Tucker is the 2nd or 3rd highest scoring kicker in all of them. Harbaugh has gone for it on 4th down 17 times this season. The league average is 12.5 times. So Tucker has maybe lost 2 or 3 field goal attempts that another coach would have given him. But being on a prolific offense makes up for it. That is why he is still a top 5 kicker this season. And he is within a point per game of the top kicker. That is not luck. Tucker has proven himself at every point over the last 8 years. He is the best kicker in the history of the NFL. Badgley, on the other hand, has played 3 games this season. That is a very small sample size. Take away Badgley's big game in Week 9 and he would be averaging the 18th most fantasy points. Badgley averaged the 17th most fantasy points last season. Badgley's place as a top 5 kicker is far from definitive. He is more likely an average fantasy kicker than an elite fantasy kicker. Even with Tucker having 5 potentially bad weather games to finish the season, he is likely to outscore the Money Badger rest of season.As for Tucker, no, weather wouldn't be the only league to bench him. In my league, he's PK5, nothing to sneeze at, but has had usage days due to Harbaugh's analytics. Money Badger averages more than Tucker per game. Money Badger's opposing quarterback this week? Drew Lock. Money Badger's weather. Sunny and mile high.
Money Badger it is, Don.
So why are you comparing Tucker to Badgley anyway? The person was asking if he should start Seibert over Tucker, not Badgley.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Good points, all, and I may have made a mistake in thinking about it. I've got dreams of an ineffective red zone presence, short fields because of rookie QBs starting, and mile high air. If that don't break, I'll be sorry. There are still several others on the wire should I get cold feet.
As far as the quoted, it was because SID talked about it upthread and I'd had the same thought.
rockaction
Footballguy
Don Hutson
Footballguy
It's hard to go wrong with a strong legged kicker playing in Denver in nice weather. With the Chargers' offense sputtering, Anthony Lynn might be willing to risk some extra long field goals to get some points on the board. Badgley's 59 yard field goal last year would have been good from 65 yards and it wasn't aided by thin air. And Denver has given up the 2nd most points to opposing kickers this year. Badgley might be the best kicker option in the league this week.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
I actually just picked up Badgley in my big money league in an important game. If I win, I'll get a first round bye. I'm going to start Zane Gonzalez. My opponent currently has Butker starting. With high winds expected in KC, I don't want him to have the option of picking up Badgley. I might even switch to Badgley.
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
TheAssassin
Footballguy
Based on the 1st 12 weeks this year, there is a small positive correlation between a team's QB and Kicker (R-value of .24). It is a stronger than the correlation than to RB,WR or TE.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
If Kyler sits, not sure if Zane becomes a better or worse play.
TheAssassin
Footballguy
Home kickers average a 1/2 point more than road kickers. Too much work to figure out domes/weather etc.
Robbie Gould off the injury report.
Anyone know if he's starting for sure?
I'm looking to lock up my K for weeks 15 and 16. He's a sneaky add now. SF faces ATL and LAR. Should be favored, D should give Gould opportunities, weather probably decent at home (or at least better than east coast messes).
Anyone know if he's starting for sure?
I'm looking to lock up my K for weeks 15 and 16. He's a sneaky add now. SF faces ATL and LAR. Should be favored, D should give Gould opportunities, weather probably decent at home (or at least better than east coast messes).
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Butker kicking in big wind. I may just carry a dome kicker for the playoffs. Too risky.
Down Under
Footballguy
Zuerlein for surethe spanker said:
The Big Donkey
Footballguy
Yeah, he's been my guy all year. Not sure what I'm doing yet but the wind forecast has me very uneasy. Wonder if anyone knows if these will be crosswinds or head/tail winds in KC.
Down Under
Footballguy
Boy, that's a tough one. KC might even pass on longer field goals. I don't know the orientation of the stadium, but winds should be from the west to NW.
I guess it depends on how close you H2H competition is and whether you might need those extra 6 points or so.
tackle for loss
Footballguy
So your take is to grab a guy whose offense is doing so bad they cant move the ball and in his last 6 has had scores of...
1
15
6
4
5
7
Why would one be suggesting picking him up? Suggesting Z is the pure example of picking someone for his name. I cut him for Koo and made out so well.
Yup I cut the great name of Zuerlein for a dude who wasnt kicking until 4 weeks ago. Why? Names mean nothing. I dont see names, I see points, trends and matchups. Zs trend sucks and isnt worthy of rostering. The only reason one would roster him is his name, and that means nothing at kicker.
Consistency is the name of the game for kickers. Thats all that matters. 8 point floor and as many weeks as u can. How is that looking for Z?
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BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
Don Hutson
Footballguy
While Zuerlein is no longer a matchup proof kicker, he is still a good start this week. It is a nice weather game against a team that has given up the 6th most points to opposing kickers. Arizona is giving up an average of 28.8 points per game which is third worst in the league. Zuerlein is 4 out of 5 on 50+ yard field goals this season. Even with his poor 4 game streak, he is the 7th best kicker in leagues that give bonuses for long kicks and he is the 9th best kicker in leagues where all field goals are 3 points. He has a high floor this week.
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tackle for loss
Footballguy
4th&inches
Footballguy
Currently have Gay, but he’s been killing me these past couple weeks.
Badgley is available, but so is Crosby. I’ve seen Badgley mentioned here a bunch this last week, but don’t believe I’ve read anyone’s thoughts on Crosby.
im no kicker expert whatsoever, so any insight from you all would be greatly appreciated.
Badgley is available, but so is Crosby. I’ve seen Badgley mentioned here a bunch this last week, but don’t believe I’ve read anyone’s thoughts on Crosby.
im no kicker expert whatsoever, so any insight from you all would be greatly appreciated.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
Crosby will be kicking in rain/sleet/snow so he is a bad option. Gay is kicking in windy conditions. Badgley is by far your best option.
Down Under
Footballguy
you are correct in that I did not provide sufficient detail for my response (I'm sure I just didn't have the time), but no, it was not based on his "name". I was looking at schedules (13-16)
Badgeley - @Den (could be good, but watch for weather), @Jax (ok), Min (bad), Oak (ok)
Z - @Ari (good), @Sea (ok), @Dal (below avg), @SF (bad)
All in all, not great schedules for either, but I consider Z to still be the superior kicker, esp if the league has bonuses for longer kicks.
Oh, and what historical data do we have for Badgeley this year? 16, 6, 10. 3 weeks. That's it.
I offered an opinion, which I expected the guy to get additional opinions here or elsewhere, not just get Z because I said so in one word. So, offer him an opinion and why it differs from my answer. You didn't have to get into personal attacks. If anything, I overanalyze everything, so take your attitude and stuff it.
rockaction
Footballguy
Just pick the guy most likely to swing his legs most during the game, three or one point be damned.
I know, I know, but they're correlated at least.
Finally went with Elliott from Philadelphia. I'm looking more lucky to get leg swings than not.
I hope.
I know, I know, but they're correlated at least.
Finally went with Elliott from Philadelphia. I'm looking more lucky to get leg swings than not.
I hope.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
Man. Vinateri probably isn’t on anyone’s fantasy team, but this guy has cost the Colts some games this year. I’d argue they might have 9-10 wins with someone else.
Do they just keep him around due to history?
Do they just keep him around due to history?
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Gonzo got a single point in a game where the Cards only scored a TD in the 4th quarter.
Is he a hold going forward because this game is an aberration, or should I be looking to stream flavor of the week going forward?
Is he a hold going forward because this game is an aberration, or should I be looking to stream flavor of the week going forward?
Down Under
Footballguy
Arizona will keep fighting - 1st yr QB & coach will see to that. Wks 14-16 are Pit, Cle, @Sea. Semi-tough schedule, but not shut-down defenses, and that doesn't always correlate to K points anyway. I'd hold and keep sticking him out there.
rockaction
Footballguy
Tucker went for nine yesterday in my league. Elliott went for thrirteen. Badgely went for nine with a miss that would have given him thirteen. This is a fallacy, but the run-up to the question seems like it was answered heartily. The reasons for cutting Tucker were valid if you needed to win one game and one game only.
Personally, I still missed the playoffs by two points.
Personally, I still missed the playoffs by two points.
tackle for loss
Footballguy
8 out of Koo
10 out of Z
its always a crap shoot, you hope for 7-10. You go for the one with the best trends and in a dome.
10 out of Z
its always a crap shoot, you hope for 7-10. You go for the one with the best trends and in a dome.
tackle for loss
Footballguy
Im cutting Koo and will pick up the best kicker before the 1pm games on Sunday.
Gonzo may be that guy if I cant scoop Koo back up for the game against Carolina. I do worry about the punter switch botching some snaps.
grateful zed
Footballguy
was going to ride maher (winning team, dome) thru the playoffs, but his 9 misses have me worried.
any advice on my other options?
Bailey, Dan MIN PK
McLaughlin, Chase SFO PK
Myers, Jason SEA PK
Avoid McLaughlin...he isn’t guaranteed work anymore with Gould back,
Matchup play between the other two imo.
grateful zed
Footballguy
skillz
Footballguy
Weebs210
Footballguy
The Frankman
Footballguy
Same with Joey Slye @ Atlanta. That should be a high scoring game and he has a 60 yard leg.
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