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Tyler Lockett ***Official***

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Measurables are nearly identical.

Lockett's production was far better.

Dorsett is almost universally considered the better prospect, even being projected as a late first rounder by some, while Lockett is looked at as a 3rd-4th rounder.

I like Lockett quite a bit more personally. What am I missing here?

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Lockett and it's not close. PFF graded him the only WR close to Cooper. That's how good he was. Lockett can beat you in any part of the field. Dorsett's game simply isn't as developed right now. He's not as quick as Lockett on the field either. Straight line speed is the only thing he has going for him.

I have Lockett rated as a high 2nd Rounder and my #7 WR. My highest rated sub-200lb WR.

Dorsett is at best, a 3rd Rounder to me. Closer to John Brown from last year, while Lockett is closer to Brandin Cooks.

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Dorsett is at best, a 3rd Rounder to me. Closer to John Brown from last year, while Lockett is closer to Brandin Cooks.

Yes, exactly my same thoughts. Lockett is a baller. Dorsett seems like a lesser developed version of the same guy, yet you look at online rankings and draft projections and it's like they are flip flopped. I don't understand why.

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I've wondered what separates Cooks going mid 1st last year and Lockett this year. Looking at measurables from the combine and production on the field, they're awfully close. Cooks was slightly faster and weighs a few pounds more. I watched every game Lockett has played; for the last two years, everyone on the field knew the ball was coming his way and teams still couldn't stop him. Add to that his return ability, and I'd be very surprised if he wasn't a top 50 pick.

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Tyler Lockett

5' 10"

182 lbs

40 time 4.21 4.31 4.42

Vertical Jump 35.5"

Broad Jump 10' 1"

20 yd shuttle 4.07

3 cone 6.89

Projected round 2-3

Phillip Dorsett

5' 10"

185 lbs

40 time 4.18 4.28 4.39

Vertical Jump 37"

Broad Jump 10' 2"

20 yd shuttle 4.11

3 cone 6.70

Projected round 1-2

Brandin Cooks

5' 10"

189 lbs

40 time 4.21 4.31 4.42

Vertical Jump 36"

Broad Jump 10'

20 yd shuttle 3.81

3 cone 6.76

Projected round 1

I have Dorsett and Lockett in tier 2b which means I expect these players to be WR2 level prospects for FF. But that I could see them potentially pushing for WR1 numbers if thy are drafted high (1st round) and go to a good situation.

This tier includes Perriman, Coates, Devin Smith and Funchess as well.

I have Dorsett ranked ahead of Lockett based on some pretty subtle considerations such as playing against more difficult competition, generally being regarded as a better prospect by draftniks and perhaps having slightly more athletic ability.Really splitting hairs there however over .03 seconds on the 40 time.

From the draft breakdown cutups of the two players I was more impressed with Lockett. I thought he used a larger variety of routes than Dorsett was asked to do. I want to qualify this with the point that I think Dorsett can run a greater variety of routes than what he was asked to in Miami's offense. Dorsett is very smooth and has an extra gear on the deep routes while also showing some good moves to make defenders miss tackles at times.

I think Lockett showed better ability to catch the ball at it's highest point and win contested situations that I did not see as much from Dorsett in that aspect of his game.This leads me to think Lockett might be a better player in PPR leagues than Dorsett while Dorsett may have more explosive plays.

As far as comparing them Brandin Cooks from last season. They are right there with Cooks athletically. Now if either of them is drafted in the first round and is matched with a good QB such as Cooks was I could see any of the WR in this tier jumping up my rankings, I still consider it most likely that they are WR2 upside type players not WR1s

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I also prefer Lockett. Dorsett does have the advantage of being faster / more athletic.

Does he really, tho? Look closely at their measurables. They are immaterially different IMO.

I like Lockett, but .07 seconds isn't immaterial. And neither is 7 pounds -- it's about 25% of the typical range for players that height.

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Don't underestimate the terrible coaching at Miami. That is what held Dorsett back. Everyone depends on situation and opportunity to a degree but if Dorsett and Lockett find themselves in similar situations, Dorsett for me.

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I also prefer Lockett. Dorsett does have the advantage of being faster / more athletic.

Does he really, tho? Look closely at their measurables. They are immaterially different IMO.

I like Lockett, but .07 seconds isn't immaterial. And neither is 7 pounds -- it's about 25% of the typical range for players that height.

NFL Draft Scout has the difference at .03 and 3 lbs.

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I also prefer Lockett. Dorsett does have the advantage of being faster / more athletic.

Does he really, tho? Look closely at their measurables. They are immaterially different IMO.

I like Lockett, but .07 seconds isn't immaterial. And neither is 7 pounds -- it's about 25% of the typical range for players that height.

NFL Draft Scout has the difference at .03 and 3 lbs.

NFL Draft Scout has the gap at 3 pounds (182 vs. 185) and .07 seconds on the 40 at the combine (4.40 vs. 4.33), along with 1.5" on the vertical and 1" on the broad jump. That's about a 0.4 standard deviation edge for Dorsett, on average, across those 4 measurables.

For comparison, Kevin White has a similarly sized edge in measurables on DeVante Parker. They're the same height, and White weighed 6 pounds more than Parker, ran 0.10 seconds faster, had the same vertical, and was 2" worse on the broad jump.

The Dorsett-Lockett gap on the 40 is even bigger if you put any stock in Xue's measurements or Dorsett's pro day, and Dorsett also added an extra 7" to his broad jump at his pro day.

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Don't underestimate the terrible coaching at Miami. That is what held Dorsett back. Everyone depends on situation and opportunity to a degree but if Dorsett and Lockett find themselves in similar situations, Dorsett for me.

I don't disagree with this and I'm a Mia fan. I've said Dorsett is a one trick pony but sometimes that can be the coaches only ever taught that pony one trick.

I will say, Dorsett impressed me at the Sr. Bowl and in the postseason leading up to the draft. He flashed skills he didn't show, maybe because he wasn't asked too, on the field.

As for the difference in speed between him and Lockett I'd say it's substantial. Lockett has wheels but Dorsett is simply a blur. Nobody plays faster in this draft. Nobody. He makes it look easy to run by everyone.

Edited by jurb26

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Edge now to Dorsett in a big way. Closest Lockett can now come is if ATL drafts him to replace Harry Douglas.

Gonna be real tough beating the Colts in terms of situation. Lockett would need to go to a team with an elite offense to remain in the same conversation.

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Edge now to Dorsett in a big way. Closest Lockett can now come is if ATL drafts him to replace Harry Douglas.

Only downside to that is playing time, though. I'm torn on this because I can' see this being a long-term wait to get CONSISTENT return on investment here. I don't think the Colts let Hilton walk. I think they are planning a revision of the greatest show on turf and just couldn't pass on the weaponry.

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Dorsett has the better fantasy football QB.

I don't play re-draft.

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Dorsett has the better fantasy football QB.

I don't play re-draft.

It isn't likely to change any time soon.

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Dorsett has the better fantasy football QB.

I don't play re-draft.

It isn't likely to change any time soon.

Yes. Dorsett isn't going to be a better WR than Lockett any time soon. Dorsett isn't going to be the best WR on his own team anytime soon. Lockett is already the best WR on his own team.

Edited by Xue

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Dorsett has the better fantasy football QB.

I don't play re-draft.

It isn't likely to change any time soon.

Yes. Dorsett isn't going to be a better WR than Lockett any time soon. Dorsett isn't going to be the best WR on his own team anytime soon. Lockett is already the best WR on his own team.

Great. Then he can go for 65-800-5. Woohoo!

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Dorsett has the better fantasy football QB.

I don't play re-draft.

It isn't likely to change any time soon.

Yes. Dorsett isn't going to be a better WR than Lockett any time soon. Dorsett isn't going to be the best WR on his own team anytime soon. Lockett is already the best WR on his own team.

Great. Then he can go for 65-800-5. Woohoo!

What's Dorsett gonna do?

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Dorsett has the better fantasy football QB.

I don't play re-draft.

It isn't likely to change any time soon.

Yes. Dorsett isn't going to be a better WR than Lockett any time soon. Dorsett isn't going to be the best WR on his own team anytime soon. Lockett is already the best WR on his own team.

Great. Then he can go for 65-800-5. Woohoo!

What's Dorsett gonna do?

Couldn't tell ya. What I can tell you is that his upside blows Lockett's out of the water. I guess if Harry Douglas types in terms of production are what you're after, then Lockett is probably a decent late 2nd rookie pick. I'd rather have the guy drafted higher, in a better passing offense, with a chance to produce impactful numbers if the stars align.

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Dorsett has the better fantasy football QB.

I don't play re-draft.

It isn't likely to change any time soon.

Yes. Dorsett isn't going to be a better WR than Lockett any time soon. Dorsett isn't going to be the best WR on his own team anytime soon. Lockett is already the best WR on his own team.

Great. Then he can go for 65-800-5. Woohoo!

What's Dorsett gonna do?

Couldn't tell ya. What I can tell you is that his upside blows Lockett's out of the water. I guess if Harry Douglas types in terms of production are what you're after, then Lockett is probably a decent late 2nd rookie pick. I'd rather have the guy drafted higher, in a better passing offense, with a chance to produce impactful numbers if the stars align.

But you have Lockett's upside already etched in stone? Ok. What is Dorsett's "upside" I bet you still can't "quantify" it. Being faster doesn't mean you have more upside. Having a higher YPR doesn't mean you have more upside. Upside is volume * rate. I gave you the formula, now give me some numbers. Dorsett doesn't project to get a great deal of volume based on his college production. Lockett dominated in college.

A Harry Douglas comp for Lockett just means you absolutely have never watched Lockett. Rashad Greene and Justin Hardy are Harry Douglases. Lockett is simply much better than all three WRs.

If the stars align? The stars have already aligned for Lockett. I'd rather have the WR that can actually play WR and be ready to start from Day 1 and beat you anywhere on the field.

https://twitter.com/TheCFX/status/594326168058384384

@1933SGDE no, Dorsett isn't that good, IMO

Edited by Xue

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Dorsett has the better fantasy football QB.

I don't play re-draft.

It isn't likely to change any time soon.

Yes. Dorsett isn't going to be a better WR than Lockett any time soon. Dorsett isn't going to be the best WR on his own team anytime soon. Lockett is already the best WR on his own team.

Great. Then he can go for 65-800-5. Woohoo!

What's Dorsett gonna do?

Couldn't tell ya. What I can tell you is that his upside blows Lockett's out of the water. I guess if Harry Douglas types in terms of production are what you're after, then Lockett is probably a decent late 2nd rookie pick. I'd rather have the guy drafted higher, in a better passing offense, with a chance to produce impactful numbers if the stars align.

But you have Lockett's upside already etched in stone? Ok. What is Dorsett's "upside" I bet you still can't "quantify" it. Being faster doesn't mean you have more upside. Having a higher YPR doesn't mean you have more upside. Upside is volume * rate. I gave you the formula, now give me some numbers. Dorsett doesn't project to get a great deal of volume based on his college production. Lockett dominated in college.

A Harry Douglas comp for Lockett just means you absolutely have never watched Lockett. Rashad Greene and Justin Hardy are Harry Douglases. Lockett is simply much better than all three WRs.

If the stars align? The stars have already aligned for Lockett. I'd rather have the WR that can actually play WR and be ready to start from Day 1 and beat you anywhere on the field.

https://twitter.com/TheCFX/status/594326168058384384

@1933SGDE no, Dorsett isn't that good, IMO

Why did Lockett fall to the 3rd? I expected him to go in the early 2nd and I do like his talent. I still wouldn't buy into Wilson creating a WR1 right now, but you're right that the opportunity is there.

Frankly, I don't like either guy's upside enough to draft them where they'll probably go. I will agree that Lockett's immediate upside in PPR is higher than Dorsett's. But in a couple of years, that changes. Still don't know that either guy even has DeSean Jackson type upside.

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First of all, take a second and re-read what I wrote. In it was not included a Harry Douglas "comp." At times you seem to get to caught up in tearing down opposing points of views that you don't even read what's posted.

I'd say Dorsett's upside is similar to Hilton's. I don't think he's as refined as Hilton, but I could see him tossing up some DJax-esque years where he's hauling in 60-70 passes at ~18ypr, 1000-1200 yards and 8-12 TD's.

I like Lockett. Not as much as you seem to, but I don't particularly like the landing spot for impactful fantasy numbers anytime soon.

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I'm a totally biased Seattle fan. Was glad to see Lockett drafted by Seattle, but only for the return specialist potential. I don't see any WR being an impact fantasy player in Seattle.

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I'm a totally biased Seattle fan. Was glad to see Lockett drafted by Seattle, but only for the return specialist potential. I don't see any WR being an impact fantasy player in Seattle.

This is how I see it, too.

Graham is essentially the WR1 in Sea.

Lockett may have a clearer path to the field, immediately but Sea throws the ball less than just about any team in the NFL.

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I'm a totally biased Seattle fan. Was glad to see Lockett drafted by Seattle, but only for the return specialist potential. I don't see any WR being an impact fantasy player in Seattle.

This is how I see it, too.

Graham is essentially the WR1 in Sea.

Lockett may have a clearer path to the field, immediately but Sea throws the ball less than just about any team in the NFL.

After scanning through the average number of returns by NFL teams last year I'm guessing its about 80 total returns per team. That's 5 touches per game in returns only for Lockett. I agree with your assessment. Even if he only gets one touch per game as a reception or run that might be enough to get him 100 total touches. He could have a big impact as a rookie and be a complete non-fantasy entity.

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Let's start with just the tale of the tape:

Antonio Brown: (combine)

Ht: 5101

Wt: 186

BMI: 26.6

40: 4.57 (4.48 pro day)

20: 2.64

10: 1.58

Bench: 13

Vertical: 33.5

Broad: 8'9"

20 Shuttle: 4.18

3 Cone: 6.98

TY Hilton: (pro day. No workout at combine)

Ht: 5094

Wt: 183

BMI: 26.7

40: 4.34

20: 2.51

10: 1.53

Bench: 7

Vertical 35.5

Broad: 9'11"

20 shuttle: 4.36

3 cone: 7.03

Tyler Lockett (combine)

Ht: 5097

Wt 182

BMI: 26.3

40: 4.40

20: 2.59

10: 1.55

Vertical: 35.5

Broad 10'1"

20 shuttle: 4.07

3 cone: 6.89

Lockett is a slightly better athlete than both Hilton and Brown. His jumps, shuttles and 3 cone were all better than the other two. Hilton did run a quicker 40, but that was at a pro day, which are historically known to be typically faster tracks.

Here's Bob McGinn's snippet on him:

11. TYLER LOCKETT, Kansas State (5-10, 181, 4.35, 2): Compared by one scout to Dexter McCluster. "Love him," one scout said. "Extremely quick. Great bloodlines. He's not small by any means. Blazing speed, quick, good route runner. Strong hands. Abysmal quarterback play. The fact he got the production he did when opponents knew he was their primary threat was impressive to me." Both his father, Kevin, and uncle, Aaron, were top WRs at K-State. Started for 3½ years, finishing with 249 catches for 3,710 (14.9) and 29 TDs. "If he was 6-feet he might be the best receiver," another scout said. "It was a nothing team but this guy just made play after play after play." From Tulsa, Okla.

Before you get carried away with the McCluster comp, remember that McCluster was an inch shorter and 10 lbs lighter than Lockett. He also ran a 4.58 coming out. Its not really a good comp at all.

Now to my point. I think we as FF players, and the NFL to some extent are still behind the times. We all get enamored with size. Everybody wants their WR to look like Mike Evans or Calvin Johnson. I don't think enough due has been given to what these smaller guys are doing yet. With the new rules in place, smaller WRs are better able to operate. Antonio Brown has been crushing it, and TY Hilton is more than just a product of Andrew Luck.

Lockett was an absolutely fantastic college player. He and Cooper are the best route runners in this class. He made college CBs look silly. Like every collegiate WR, he has some work to do on his game, but he's much more advanced than most.

I know what the concerns are for FF purposes. He went to Seattle, and they run the ball more than anybody. Pass catchers go there to die. That has been true. However, Marshawn Lynch isn't going to be around forever. He's the heart and soul of that team. In the next year or two, he will likely be gone, and it will be Russell Wilson's team. They've been increasing Wilson's workload in the passing game each year. My belief is that after Lynch is gone, Wilson will be throwing it 35+ times a game. All the other quality QBs are doing it. Why wouldn't Wilson?

Finally, consider this as well. John Schneider has been one of the best drafting GMs since he got that job. He came from the Ted Thompson school of more picks = better odds for success, and he's done very well late in drafts. Like anybody else, he's had his share of misses. Regardless, he's a very good GM. He just traded a 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th to draft Lockett. No GM does that for a guy they think is going to be just a good returner. He bet heavily on Lockett.

Lockett is currently going late 2nd round in rookie drafts. I think its a steal.

ETA: Correcting Vertical/Broad jumps for TY Hilton

Edited by Kitrick Taylor

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I would've drafted Hilton just based on that vertical jump. I think you put Hilton's Broad jump in as his vertical.

Edited by Borden
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I would've drafted Hilton just based on that vertical jump. I think you put Hilton's Broad jump in as his vertical.

Hops!

Now please delete this thread until I make my next pick!!

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https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/04/07/cff-overview-wrs-something-to-work-with/

Tyler Lockett, Kansas State

Sometimes you have to take the measurables and throw them out of the window because the small guy plays bigger than he is. There was only really one receiver this season that graded comparably to Amari Cooper in the FBS. Want to guess who it was? Tyler Lockett, despite standing just 5-foot-10 and weighing 182 pounds, just made plays left and right, running smooth routes, making tough grabs and generally looking like a guy who should be drafted at the sharp end of the names called. In fact, there is very little to dislike about Lockett, even when watching the tape, with the only real knock being his size. If Lockett was four inches taller and 25 pounds heavier he would be a Top 10 pick.

Signature Stat: Gained 3.64 yards per route run. Only Amari Cooper and Tony Lippett had better figures among draft eligible receivers.

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So what does that make Justin Hardy?

Ht: 510

Wt: 192

BMI: ?

40: 4.56 (4.40 pro day)

20: ?

10: 1.57

Bench: 11

Vertical: 36.5

Broad: 9'-6"

20 Shuttle: 4.21

3 Cone: 6.63

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What scares me about him is that when I read the post-draft interviews with Carroll and his staff, everything they said about Lockett was about his return skills. Doesn't mean he can't be a WR, but basically every comment was along the lines of "this guy is a great returner" and not "this guy is a great returner and also a great receiver who can eventually play outside."

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Here are the quotes from the article I read:

http://www.seattletimes.com/sports/seahawks/pete-carroll-and-john-schneider-talk-about-frank-clark-tyler-lockett-and-the-nfl-draft/


(On Tyler Lockett…) JS: “Just a need, a strong need at the punt return position. I was actually with his father in Kansas City, which is amazing and makes me feel very old, but Tyler is a phenomenal kid: academically, driven, captain, leader of his team—both of these guys are actually big-time leaders of their team. Those are some of the things that stood out with both of these guys—highly driven, just instincts and catching the ball. He is a great fielder. He’s incredible as a slot receiver inside. The week he had at the Senior Bowl was phenomenal. We just felt like he is the premier returner in this draft—there were three players we felt like we wanted to come out of the draft with, and we got two of them. I can’t tell you who the other one was, it’s kind of a bummer.”

PC: “As a return specialist, he really adds that to our team, knowing that he can be our punt returner. He can be our kickoff returner. It’s just so obvious, we think that’s an area of our football team we needed improvement at and we could hit it with one guy. He is also a very accomplished receiver, you see his numbers and everything that he has accomplished, but the fact that we can put a guy back there with that kind of confidence and style and tremendous speed and explosiveness, and great history—he’s got all kinds of documentation. That’s why were so happy John made the move to get that done. I think it’s a really exciting thing to add to our football team.”

(On if Lockett will doth both punt and kick returns…) PC: “Both, we are counting on him to do both.”

(On Lockett, continued…) JS: “Yes, he is just savvy. He is a lot like his father—he wouldn’t say that, he would say he is much better than his father—he is just a real savvy route runner, he’s got a great feel for zone and sitting down. He just made plays all of the time. One of the teams was disappointed in not being able to acquire him and they called me and were like, ‘The guy just continues to make play after play after play.’ He is a smaller guy—I can’t say I am a smaller guy, but I am shorter guy—and they want to be you up all of the time as a football player, but you want to critique these guys for being a smaller player, but he made a lot of big plays.”

PC: “The part that we’re really looking forward to in the return game is great attitude and a willingness to wanting to be back there, and he has demonstrated that for years. He’s got the knack, he’s got the big play nature to him, but his attitude is perfect for wanting to jump in there. I would imagine he catches the first kickoff of the season. He will be back there doing it—he will compete to prove that—but it is hard to imagine anyone can outdo him back there.”

PC: “There’s a big difference in the production we had. Really, going back to Leon [Washington] too, when Leon was our kick returner, we went back and researched it very carefully to see that we could improve. We are just trying to get better as a team and I think this makes us a better team. The fact that we know that Tyler can jump in there and fill a spot in the receivers spot, too, and back us up—he will play Doug [baldwin]’s spot and back him up, that’s a real plus, too. He’s not just a returner, he can do other things, too, and we will bring him along, but it’s really the return specialist opportunity we thought was really unique, and there was nobody else like him in the draft.”

Some comments about his receiving ability, but most of the talk is centered around his return skills.

Not a death sentence by any means. Just something that stood out to me.

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So what does that make Justin Hardy?

Ht: 510

Wt: 192

BMI: ?

40: 4.56 (4.40 pro day)

20: ?

10: 1.57

Bench: 11

Vertical: 36.5

Broad: 9'-6"

20 Shuttle: 4.21

3 Cone: 6.63

Ryan Broyles, or a poor man's Stedman Bailey.

Edited by Xue

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The Texans were targeting Lockett at 70. They settled for Strong.

Yes the Seahawks wanted him mainly for his return ability, but he's going to be too skilled and talented to keep off the field. PFF graded him as the #1 Returner in this draft.

Here are two pieces comparing him to Antonio Brown.

http://rotoviz.com/2015/04/tyler-lockett-looks-like-next-ty-hilton-antonio-brown/

https://numberfire.com/nfl/news/5186/is-tyler-lockett-the-next-antonio-brown

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I was vacillating between Lockett and Devin Smith at pick 22, ended up going with Smith... then Lockett fell to me at 28. Yay me.

I, too, think Seattle will open up their passing as they acquire more weapons and Wilson continues to develop. I don't expect top 5 passing attempts, but smart teams play to their strengths, and Wilson is a strength.

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I seem to think of Lockett being described in a way in Seattle that makes me think of Percy Harvin-lite.

Percy Harvin is a knucklehead but he's also immensely talented so I guess I would look at him at his best in Seattle and set the bar there and then find Lockett under it somewhere trying to get to that point, in the best-case scenario.

In the worst-case scenario, I see a Seattle team that has used only a 3rd round pick to select a guy who will specialize in giving them the edge in Special Teams and he ends up being an occasional 3rd or 4th guy that sometimes makes it into the lineup.

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What scares me about him is that when I read the post-draft interviews with Carroll and his staff, everything they said about Lockett was about his return skills. Doesn't mean he can't be a WR, but basically every comment was along the lines of "this guy is a great returner" and not "this guy is a great returner and also a great receiver who can eventually play outside."

Seattle's return game was an embarrassment last year after being a real strength in the recent past. As a closer follower of the team I'm also uber-excited that they addressed this glaring need. I think its fully understandable that they are also excited about seeing him as a returner and don't think it says anything about their confidence in the young man as a receiver.

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if he gets opportunities to get on the field in the slot - which is no given - then he'll be productive. his skillset is different from all of the other Seattle WR's. everything suggests he knows how to run routes as well as get open. he can be a great, reliable target for Wilson in the passing game. i'm keen to read reports from the rookie minicamp because i'm thinking he's got real value here.

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