I actually agree on both of those examples, but Pete took over in 2010 and after two 7 win seasons has had five 10+ win seasons in a row. He's been right more than he's been wrong.
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WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter LawFitz
- Start date
shadyridr
Footballguy
It was a bad decision because he didn't fit their offense at allHow is graham a bad decision?
Seattle traded an aging center and a 1st round pick in 2015 who has already spent on year on IR, was traded to Miami for a 5th round pick.
How is that a bad decision... Graham was also IRed for his first year with Seattle but then went on to have 2 consecutive pro bowl seasons.
Yeah... a failed 1st rounder for a pro bowl TE is a bad decision
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I'd agree that it was an odd trade to begin with because of that fact, however I wouldn't call the trade a bad decision. Considering the alternative I think it worked out just fine. But yes, it was a weird trade to begin with and I may have even commented on that as such at the time.
Milkman
Footballguy
My point was that this contract seems to point to them having plans to give him more than 85 targets.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Now listed as wr 63 at fantasypros. Not exactly gonna cost you a lot take a flyer here.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Oh absolutely. I thought you were making a comment that it was a ludicrous contract given he hasn't had many targets in his career. My mistake.
Milkman
Footballguy
Elevencents
Footballguy
If he can stay healthy I think he will provide one of the best returns on investment this year. Wilson is always a top 5 QB, their defense is arguably the worst it’s been in years and Baldwin is dinged but healthy enough to draw #1 coverage.
cobalt_27
Footballguy
Wilson is not always a top 5 QB. More than half the time he is not top-5. And, the three years he’s been top-5, it’s been his rushing prowess that has accounted for 15-40% of his points.
No defense is scheming to stop Baldwin. Lockett will get some looks and might even have his best season yet. But, anyone expecting more that a few random good weeks is really going to be disappointed.
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
I think folks are getting a little too excited about Lockett. If he had the talent to be a number 1 WR on a team it would have shown by now. It's not like Seattle has had this amazing receiving core where he couldn't stand out. If I take a flier on a Seattle WR it will be Brandon Marshall in the 13-15th rounds.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I disagree with almost all of this.
Too excited by Lockett? Maybe that part I agree with. He's a good late round flier but anyone thinking he's a sure thing is overly optimistic.
Hasn't shown the talent to be a wr1? Disagree strongly. He's been hurt in two of three years. That's a valid knock on him. He's 5'10" 182 lbs and has two leg injuries in his three year career. That's a valid knock. But a rookie season of 51/664/6 as the third wr? That's better than a lot of wr1s did as rookies. His catch rate was outstanding. Here's a quote from this thread
His sophomore year he had a PCL injury right away. But in December he clearly felt better, reeling off 324 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 3 game stretch. The next game he broke his leg.
Last year he came back from that broken leg and took a back seat to Baldwin, Richardson and Graham while retaining kick return duties. It's understandable to question him for that, but he was returning from a late season injury and the guys ahead of him were playing well enough that they didn't need to pepper him with targets.
When he's been healthy - not recovering from a PCL or broken leg - he's looked good.
For the competition - Baldwin and kearse were the starters when he was a rookie. He was a de facto starter as wr3 and basically took over the role before the pcl. His sophomore year they had a healthy Graham and he was hurt. Last year he had Baldwin, a healthy Graham, a healthy Richardson and was still recovering. The first year he's been healthy enough to start, they let Graham go, let Richardson go and gave Lockett a big contract extension. So I don't think you can criticize him for not passing those guys on the depth chart - he basically did.
As for Marshall, i don't know. There's been talk that he would be cut, even after his solid pre season game last week. If he's there I can see him being a low volume receiver with good touchdowns but I don't see him as a number two.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I recommend you check out the quote I posted regarding Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin, and Tyler Lockett's first 3 years compared to each other. And then come back and let's talk about how "he would have shown it by now"
Brandon Marshall is on the roster bubble... but to each their own I guess
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abbottjamesr
Footballguy
How I see it.
Lockett has only missed 1 game in the last 3 years in the league. In the 47 games he has dressed for he has 137 receptions on 206 targets. Russel Wilson has thrown 1582 times over those 3 years. So, Lockett has recieved a 13% target share. Maybe he bumps up to 15-16% this year. If Wilson throws 525 times that gives Lockett 84 targets which I project results in 60ish receptions for 700 yards and 4-5 TD's.
I stand by my statement that if we were going to see something we would have in the last 3 years that would have indicated he was going to take the next steps to being a relevant WR in fantasy football.
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Chaka
Footballguy
Unger was not a failed first rounder. He was a 28 year old All Pro, as was Jimmy Graham at the time.Dr. Dan said:How is graham a bad decision?
Seattle traded an aging center and a 1st round pick in 2015 who has already spent on year on IR, was traded to Miami for a 5th round pick.
How is that a bad decision... Graham was also IRed for his first year with Seattle but then went on to have 2 consecutive pro bowl seasons.
Yeah... a failed 1st rounder for a pro bowl TE is a bad decision
Unger is still playing at a high level for the Saints, Graham is now a Packer.
Probably on the first part. It's been a long time since there's been a reason to get excited about him! But like bostonfred said, he started his 2nd season injured (PCL) and finished it with a gruesome compound fracture in week 16 (his splits show the PCL effect, going from 11.9 YPR to 16.7 YPR... on pace for ~900 yds in the 2nd half of the season). Even if he had not been injured, the 2016 season was a bad one for Wilson as he was constantly banged up and the OL offered even less protection than usual. 2017 he was slow coming back from that injury (I thought I recalled some PUP talk) and got passed over for Richardson. I have a hard time holding that against him.
Obviously the Seahawks felt good enough about what they've seen that they figured it would be cheaper to extend him now than after the season. That also speaks to their intended usage of him. Early extensions are good indicators, IMO. Lockett went from a guy on my redraft radar to a solid target, although I'll need to see how his ADP/AAV adjusts to this news - he might get too expensive. In dynasty he went from "a hope and a prayer stash" to "I like his odds" but I won't be overspending to acquire him. This contract moved his value from a 2019 3rd to a 2019 2nd from a buying perspective, although I would not sell him for a 2nd. The range of roles I could see for him go from Paul Richardson to Brandin Cooks. I don't think he'll ever sniff WR1 production, but he's about the same size as Doug Baldwin, so you never know.
You can take a flyer on Marshall if you want, but I'd suggest following the bread crumbs. Marshall is getting $1.1M this year and they just guaranteed Lockett $20M.
Also, there's this gem: http://www.thebackyardbanter.com/reception-perception-welcome-the-ascending-tyler-lockett-to-rarified-status.html
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
I respect Matt Harmon's opinions on WR's a lot, However that was 2 years ago and he hasn't shown any of that talent since. I get there are excuses for it but there will always be excuses available. I'm going to pass as there are other fliers that I think have more upside in the same area of drafts.
Marshall is for sure a flier and I get that it probably wont pan out, but there is near zero risk involved with taking him at the last pick before kicker. We should know early if he is going to be any thing and he could be the new Jimmy Graham for Seattle. He probably actually blocks better than Graham and is just as big of target. Maybe he only gets 500 yards but he could have 10 TDs. He is the perfect last round pick in my book.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Since he's viewed as a fantasy WR3 (at best) I don't think anyone is expecting much more than that - you'd be surprised just how many WRs that you can apply that to.
That is overly simplistic. You are ignoring way too much context. If you want to ding him for being injured, that's fair. But don't evaluate his play as if he is healthy when you know he's coming back from a PCL injury and a compound fracture.
I think he was showing that talent in the 2nd half of the 2016 season. He had 383 yards in 6.5 games on 38 targets.
The odds of Lockett being a WR2 this year are better than the odds of Marshall catching 10 TDs.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Right that was what I thought you were doing, and it is an objectively bad use of statistics. That's not to say your conclusions are wrong, but your methodology is.
First, you're using games where he was hurt, including the game he broke his leg, the game he tore his PCL, the games he played with a PCL injury. Some number of those games are clearly incorrect to use unless you specifically predict another mid game injury.
Second, you're calculating his target share when competing with a tight end who made the pro bowl during those years and two receivers who are no longer there, both of whom got good contracts on new teams. Now Lockett got an even better contract to stay. So his role has certainly changed.
Third, you're weighing his rookie season evenly with his third season when calculating his projected target share. So you're assuming zero progress year over year.
If you were saying that you believe that injuries aren't an excuse, or he's too small to handle the workload which is why you believe he broke his leg and tore his PCL, or if you think there's some reason to believe he hasn't improved his skills at all from his rookie year, or that other guys on the roster (maybe Marshall) will take a bigger roster share, that's different.
But using statistics the way you just did is an objective mistake.
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
Why did Seattle dress him to play if he wan't healthy?
He actually played in those games. He had targets. His body of work is not good since his rookie year.
I would rather draft a player who has looked good but hasn't had the opportunity over a player who has looked bad recently but now has opportunity.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Unger wasn't the 1st round pick that failed. You are correct
NO swapped a probowl TE for a probowl Center. I wouldn't call that a mistake for Seattle. If they wanted to keep Graham they could have resigned him but they chose not to. Maybe that's the mistake- not resigning him.
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abbottjamesr
Footballguy
I am not trying to deceive with my statistics. I see the game logs and I see a player who has been on the field a lot in the last three years. I am sure there are some games where he missed time, but every WR has those. Last year he had 4 usable games from a FF perspective. Maybe that improves this year with more opportunity. But Paul Richardson and a under utilized Jimmie Graham shouldn't have been a barrier to targets for a guy with the talent that Lockett is being credited with.
The cost is cheap for Lockett and if you believe he has high upside then I'm not trying to talk you out of it. Just wanted to share my opinion on why I haven't jumped on the wagon this year.
habsfan
Footballguy
You kind of lost me when you referred to a PCL and broken leg as "excuses". Maybe a just a poor choice of words or maybe indicative of someone who has drawn a conclusion and worked backwards from there. If you are staying away because of injury risk, that's a different (albeit legitimate) rationale.
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
I don't see in the game logs where those injuries cost him any playing time. He has only missed one game in the last three years and that was week 17 of 2016. Its not like he missed whole seasons here.
zamboni
Footballguy
I'm in the camp of Lockett having some potential meaningful upside at a cheap price. The contract speaks volumes of how they plan to use him - you don't give that much money to a KR specialist.
There are some key targets to be had with Richardson, Kearse and Graham gone, and Baldwin not at 100% at his own admission. Whether Lockett can actually take a big step forward remains to be seen, but it probably won't be due to lack of opportunity.
There are some key targets to be had with Richardson, Kearse and Graham gone, and Baldwin not at 100% at his own admission. Whether Lockett can actually take a big step forward remains to be seen, but it probably won't be due to lack of opportunity.
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bostonfred
Footballguy
As a thought exercise, where do you see the targets going?
Baldwin has a knee injury but let's assume he's fully healthy. He got 116 targets last year and his high water mark was 125. Where do you see his targets?
They added a blocking tight end to replace Graham and they have no real receiving threat at tight end. Graham had 95 targets.
Wilson had 555 attempts last year, and he's had 452, 483, and 546 the three years before that. That's an average of 509 and you're giving him 525, but let's drop it to 509 for round numbers.
125 to Baldwin
84 to Lockett
That's 209. Where do the other 300 go? The running backs combined for 104 attempts. Do you see that going up much? Are you giving Marshall 100+ targets? Do you think some other receiver picks up the load?
Is this a real question? Baldwin may not be 100% healthy for the entire season. I guess they shouldn't dress him, huh?
In the end, the team must weigh many things... if an injured player is better than the last guy on the roster, how long until a guy is at full strength, if they want to IR him or PUP him... and probably several other factors. The end result was that they dressed him and used him lightly. He clearly got healthier and more productive as his 2nd season wore on. If they thought his return from the compound fracture was as good as he was going to get then why did they give him the extension? They must not have had access to his box scores to do that advanced analysis of his utility!
As someone else mentioned, it seems you've already come to a conclusion. At this point you are willfully ignoring context in order to maintain a conclusion. You act like scanning career stats is some sort of legit due diligence. My advice: dig a little deeper than that. Don't be a box score analyst. It is the lowest level of analysis you can do. Injuries, competition, compensation, QB play, etc. are all clues to help paint a picture. Why ignore them just to blindly stand firm on the most cursory of data?
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
Baldwin 110
J. Brown 61
T. Lockett 84
Marshall 80
RB's 95
TE 40
Other 40
Total 510
I don't think Lockett has enough talent to command more than a 16% market share in this offense.
In late round WR picks I want upside with early season clarity. I don't think I get either with Lockett. If he does well an puts up a 800 yard and 6 td season I don't think I missed on anything. That score doesn't really help me win FF games.
I think a good comparison player to Lockett is John Brown. Both have flashed talent but have struggle to stay on the field. Both seem to be the #2 WR's on there teams. I like Brown more than Lockett because when he has been on the field he has produced. He has upside of 1000 yards and 8 TDs in my opinion and seems a better later round flier to me.
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Based on your patented, revolutionary box score analysis.
44 yards per game for Brown vs. 39 yards per game for Lockett. Yuuuge difference!
bostonfred
Footballguy
The seahawks fourth wide receiver has averaged about 20 targets a game the last 4 years. (One year it was Paul Richardson, who was their third receiver until he got hurt but ended up with 36.) You have them increasing to 61.
Their other receivers haven't added up to 40, mainly because when their 4th wr is getting 20, that's hard to do.
You've got Lockett as the second most targeted receiver, getting fewer targets than their number two guy usually gets, but you're predicting a big uptick for their fourth receiver.
Do you see them moving to a lot of 4 wide receiver sets? Or just rotating guys in and out?
If Marshall got cut, it Baldwins injury called him, or brown just didn't get the kind of targets you're projecting, or the fifth receiver didn't project an unusually large number of targets for "other' receivers, would you still see Lockett as getting 84 targets? If so, who would benefit?
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Well said. Very odd distribution of targets. I think he predicts Marshall making a switch to TE? Not too sure.
I think it's reasonable to say that Seattle will throw the ball less this year, as they have publicly stated a commitment to running the ball more. 510 asttempts would be the lowest for Wilson since 2015. And let's be honest, Wilson is their offense, not Penny or Carson. Wilson was 6th in the NFL last year in attempts. I can't see him dropping to 13th at Alex Smith levels. That's ridiculous. I'd put Wilson at 535. I think that's fair considering their defense is not as good as years past and I predict they will need to throw the ball to stay in games.
Baldwin: 120 targets. I think he sees a slight down tick but not by much
Brown: 75 targets. I think this is fair. He is moving into Lockett's WR3 role and I would predict this is unchanged
Running backs: 75 targets. I see this unchanged from last year. Carroll has never given 90 some targets to RBs, at least that I'm aware of
TE: 50 targets. They don't have anyone real flashy here, but 50 targets is reasonable I think. Even if we make it 60, there is still many left for Lockett
WR4: 35 targets. I'll be generous in order to make my point
Remaining team: 20 targets?
So if Wilson throws for 535 attempts, that leaves 160 targets on the board. If he throws for 510 as abbot predicts, that's still 135 targets. No, I don't see Lockett getting all of those, but I definitely see Lockett at 110-120 targets easy. With Baldwin dealing with a knee injury all year, it's very possible Lockett is the top targeted player in this offense.
I believe this contract makes Lockett, just looking at average per years, the 21st highest paid WR in the league. Just behind Larry Fitzgerald. They just invested a lot of money into him, paying him more than they paid Jimmy Graham when he was with them.
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abbottjamesr
Footballguy
I don't think there is much difference in talent between the pass catchers on the roster, or at least not enough to make any one of them stand out beyond Baldwin.
I think Marshall fills the Jimmy Graham role from last year. He can block and he is that big target in the red zone.
2017
Doug Baldwin wr 116
Jimmy Graham te 95
Paul Richardson wr 80
Tyler Lockett wr 71
Luke Wilson te 22
Total - 384
2016
Doug Baldwin wr 123
Jimmy Graham te 96
Jermaine Kearse wr 89
Tyler Lockett wr 64
Paul Richardson wr 36
Total - 408
2018 Projection
Doug Baldwin wr 120
Tyler Lockett wr 84
Brandon Marshall wr 80
Jaron Brown wr 65
Vannett te 35
Total - 384
Biabreakable
Footballguy
My point of view about Lockett hasn't really changed since this post.
Maybe things have changed? Such as Baldwin being hurt? This would perhaps make the situation more favorable for Lockett in fantasty this year.
I am still in wait and see with him however, because he hasn't progressed the way I expected him to so far in his career, while this certainly related to his injuries, he played a lot of snaps and still was performing well on special teams, so I am not really buying that reason much.
Lockett said himself he needs to run better routes and get open more often than he did last year.
The thing I loved about Lockett as a rookie prospect is how diverse his route tree was. He seemed very pro ready to me compared to a lot of college WR I have seen. That polish hasn't caused Lockett to ascend the Seahawks depth chart or increase his opportunities though. Maybe he will break out this year, but the lack of progress so far has me doubting that.
Tau837
Footballguy
Tau837
Footballguy
False. They have been over 90 targets in each of the past 2 seasons. I posted this info earlier in the thread.
TEs have never had less than 19.4% of the team targets or less than 84 total targets during Wilson's career. I posted this info earlier in the thread. You are way too low here.
You ignored Marshall, unless you view him as WR4, but IMO he will get considerably more than 35 targets if healthy.
You are ignoring throwaways and spikes. I mentioned earlier that Wilson tends to have a number of these. I dropped 20 attempts to account for it. Not a big deal, but still `20 attempts. I also posted this info earlier in the thread.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
I'm shocked at the contract he got. I suppose Lockett could surprise me, but he's one of the more overrated WRs in the NFL, IMO.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Mever owned Lockett until now as I drafted him in the 14th round last night. Wilson is my QB so it made sense. I also loaded up on RB, so WR was thin for me. I’m cautiously optimistic but at that price I can’t really “lose” with that pick.
Elevencents
Footballguy
What did I start?
When I said what I said I meant it more along the lines of Rhythmdoctor here. To get a WR3 in the 10th+ is just value no matter how you slice it. No he’s not gonna set the world on fire, he’s not gonna win your league, but I have a hard time imagining most around his typical draft position outperforming him.
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Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Yeah, I can’t imagine anyone drafting him and expecting starter numbers. I’d be ecstatic with 800/8 which seems VERY doable. If I get 400/4, that’s ok too because he was basically free.
bostonfred
Footballguy
This is the same thing I was getting at with Abbott.
You are using career averages for a guy whose only fully healthy season was his rookie year.
I have no problem with saying "I think he's unlikely to be fully healthy", because he's had two serious injuries in a 3year career. But I don't think it is reasonable to say, well, he's had 49 career games. 16 were his rookie year when he played behind kearse, one he broke his leg, one he tore his pcl, a bunch more right after he tore his pcl, and 16 more the season after he'd broken his leg in late December, and say they're all the same. They aren't.
What would be fair is to say "look, he had 8 months to recover from a broken leg and I expected more from him last year". That's fair.
But using his career averages as a starting point - or as a negative, because he's never done this or he's historically only done that - is how you miss a breakout.
I know I sound really bullish on him. But i'm not a locket super fan. I own him in one league, he's on waivers in another and I haven't picked him up. This isn't about what I know he will do.
You're giving conservative rankings that are probably a very fair over/under. I don't think that's the right methodology for late round guys. I want to know what he can do and what it would take for that to happen.
Spencer ware can be a league winner this year. He's got decent talent and a great system with a very good team around him. I don't project him to be a stud, though, because it would take an injury to hunt for that to happen.
Jake kumerow could be a stud. It probably won't happen, but it might. Rodgers seems to love him. But maybe Rodgers loves Adams and Cobb and geronimo and mvs and all those guys too. It wouldn't shock anyone for kumerow to get sent to the practice squad. And to be a stud he'd have to pass like 5 guys on the depth chart. Possible? Sure. Likely? I honestly don't know, but i'm not taking him in the first ten or fifteen rounds of a draft.
What would it take for Lockett to br a stud? He'd need the team's trust. He'd probably need an injury to Baldwin. He'd need to be considered the number one or two receiver on the squad. He'd need a stud qb. He'd need health.
Well wait. He's got thir teams trust they just gave him a huge contract extension. Baldwin is already hurting. He appears to be the number one or two receiver on the squad depending on Baldwins health and assuming nobody leap frogs him. He's got the stud qb. And he seems to be healthy.
What could he do? Well, the last 7 games of his rookie year he had 30/404/5. His last 3 games of his sophomore year he had 16 catches 324 total yards and 2 touchdowns. He flashed when healthy and getting the ball.
Do I then project him for a peace of 10 games 728 years and 7 touchdowns? No of course not. But I don't ignore it because he didn't get the ball a ton early in his rookie year, or because he came back from injuries and didn't play at 100% the last two years. Neither is correct.
Instead i consider whether he has stud potential. I don't care about safe projections late. He's on the bench. I only care about whether he can crack my starting lineup. I've seen enough from him to think he can put up a hot streak, or maybe even a full season of fantasy relevance.
Simply stated:
In the games where conditions were good for him to do well, he did well. Conditions are good for him to do well this year.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Tau837
Footballguy
If that is all you got from all of the info I posted, I think you missed some important points.
I see where we disagree. You believe Lockett can be a "stud" if he is the #2 WR on the team. All of your conditions are met, but I don't agree that sets Lockett up to be a "stud".
But your conditions don't say anything about TDs. How many does it take to be a "stud"? Is he likely to get that many?
Alternatively, in PPR, how many receptions does it require to be a "stud"? Is he likely to get that many?
You get the idea. I'm fine agreeing to disagree and waiting to see how it plays out on the field.
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SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I feel like SEA's play caller is being completely ignored.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
#63 wr people. Nobody is going to lose their league by drafting this guy in a late round. I like to draft potential late at this position to maybe get ahead of the curve instead of hoping to get on the waiver wire.
Pretty wide range of outcomes with Lockett, but given his draft price....why the hell not? I actually picked him up off waivers in one league yesterday so it cost me nothing.
My initial reaction to his contract extension is that the Seahawks view him as a key player this season. A key player, in my opinion, is going to see a good amount of targets. Given how iffy Baldwin's situation is I can see Lockett ending up anywhere from a WR4 to a high upside WR2 if Wilson has another great season and Baldwin's injury situation worsens.
Either way, his possible reward far outweighs his price right now. Buy , in my humble opinion.
My initial reaction to his contract extension is that the Seahawks view him as a key player this season. A key player, in my opinion, is going to see a good amount of targets. Given how iffy Baldwin's situation is I can see Lockett ending up anywhere from a WR4 to a high upside WR2 if Wilson has another great season and Baldwin's injury situation worsens.
Either way, his possible reward far outweighs his price right now. Buy , in my humble opinion.
