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WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (1 Viewer)

Why did Seattle dress him to play if he wan't healthy?

He actually played in those games.  He had targets.  His body of work is not good since his rookie year. 

I would rather draft a player who has looked good but hasn't had the opportunity over a player who has looked bad recently but now has opportunity.
You can lead a horse to water...

 
As expected, Marshall made the final roster. The combination of Marshall and Jaron Brown should provide the strongest #3 and #4 WRs the Seahawks have had in Wilson's career.

 
As expected, Marshall made the final roster. The combination of Marshall and Jaron Brown should provide the strongest #3 and #4 WRs the Seahawks have had in Wilson's career.
I'd argue weakest 3 and strongest 4. Is Marshall even as good as Jermaine Kearse at this point?

 
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I'd argue weakest 3 and strongest 4. Is Marshall even as good as Jermaine Kearse at this point?
He certainly looked it in camp/preseason. IMO he is the favorite to replace Graham's red zone targets.

 
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So are we seeing Lockett as not a true 2 due to improved 3/4? I took him late after seeing his payday. 

 
He certainly looked it in camp/preseason. IMO he is the favorite to replace Graham's red zone targets.
I could see that. He is at least still very effective boxing a guy out based on preseason film. I'm just not sure he's much other than a red zone target.

 
Took him yesterday at 13.01 as my WR5 in my 12 team, super-flex, ppr redraft.  He was the 48th WR/TE (they're combined in this league) off the board.  Was a tough decision between him and John Ross.  I honestly think I like Ross a little more as a big play threat but I already had AJ Green and Andy Dalton that felt like too much investment in Cincinatti.  Plus they both have trouble staying healthy and Lockett just seems line for a bigger market opportunity right now.

Ross, Kelvin Benjamin, Chris Godwin, Courtland Sutton, Anthony Miller, Gallup etc all went undrafted so there are options if it doesn't work out.

 
Took him yesterday at 13.01 as my WR5 in my 12 team, super-flex, ppr redraft.  He was the 48th WR/TE (they're combined in this league) off the board.  Was a tough decision between him and John Ross.  I honestly think I like Ross a little more as a big play threat but I already had AJ Green and Andy Dalton that felt like too much investment in Cincinatti.  Plus they both have trouble staying healthy and Lockett just seems line for a bigger market opportunity right now.

Ross, Kelvin Benjamin, Chris Godwin, Courtland Sutton, Anthony Miller, Gallup etc all went undrafted so there are options if it doesn't work out.
Wow. 

 
Not a homer but we have return yards in our league so yes, he is doing both KR and PR ;)
Great, same here. I drafted him in the 8th or 9th last night.  Does FBG's have return projections?  We get 1 per 20 yards PR and 1 per 25 KR. Just curious how many extra points we can hope for?

 
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Great, same here. I drafted him in the 8th or 9th last night.  Does FBG's have return projections?  We get 1 per 20 yards PR and 1 per 25 KR. Just curious how many extra points we can hope for?
Despite a middling receiving season he was WR20 in our return league that is 1/15 punt and 1/30 kickoff. (8 pt TDs - assumes distance bonus ;)  )

If he catches 70-80 passes he is almost top 10 WR in return leagues. Problem is that stat dev. Oof.

 
Took him yesterday at 13.01 as my WR5 in my 12 team, super-flex, ppr redraft.  He was the 48th WR/TE (they're combined in this league) off the board.  Was a tough decision between him and John Ross.  I honestly think I like Ross a little more as a big play threat but I already had AJ Green and Andy Dalton that felt like too much investment in Cincinatti.  Plus they both have trouble staying healthy and Lockett just seems line for a bigger market opportunity right now.

Ross, Kelvin Benjamin, Chris Godwin, Courtland Sutton, Anthony Miller, Gallup etc all went undrafted so there are options if it doesn't work out.
Wow. 
Not so surprising. Redraft leagues don't see many rookies drafted in my experience. Also, this is a super flex league, where QBs are likely higher value, pushing guys like Godwin and Benjamin to the WW. Which is weird to see, yes I agree, but I fully expect them to be gobbled up and those other fliers released within a couple weeks of the season. 

 
Why? I've seen every game of Marshall's last two season's and it's been brutal.
Agreed. I don't see Marshall making much of an impact. With the only other passing options outside of Baldwin/Lockett being Marshall and Jaron Brown, I see a big opportunity for Lockett here - especially with Baldwin not at 100%.

 
Ok one preseason play where he pushed off? Maybe I'll end up being wrong and he'll have a resurgence in Seattle - but he looked like a shell of himself with the Jets and Giants the last two years. One of those seasons was with the bad Fitzmagic so perhaps that's a bit unfair to judge him.
I'm not expecting greatness this year, but a line similar to Grahams last year wouldn't surprise me.  50 to 60 receptions, 600-700 yards and maybe 7-10 TDs.  Those are good flex play, WR3 fill in numbers for a last round pick.

To get back to Lockett though, I do think that Brown and Marshall and a weak O-line limit his upside.  Luckily he doesn't cost much and your probably not starting him week 1.

 

 
Ok one preseason play where he pushed off? Maybe I'll end up being wrong and he'll have a resurgence in Seattle - but he looked like a shell of himself with the Jets and Giants the last two years. One of those seasons was with the bad Fitzmagic so perhaps that's a bit unfair to judge him.
I would also add the "blatantly disinterested factor" with Marshall. When he loses interest he's invisible out there.

 
I would also add the "blatantly disinterested factor" with Marshall. When he loses interest he's invisible out there.
Very good point. It's not a high octane passing offense, so if the volume isn't there, I can see some issues there.

As an aside, your Atari 2600 Adventure avatar is one of my favorites on this board.

 
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Wow, what? 

Wow you're surprised other people don't value players the same as you do?
Aren't you the guy who was ripping the idea of week 17 championships just hours ago because people had values differently than you? 

I have a lot of the same players you mentioned on the ww in a few of my leagues and think that's pretty normal but the hypocrisy is a bit amusing. 

 
Aren't you the guy who was ripping the idea of week 17 championships just hours ago because people had values differently than you? 

I have a lot of the same players you mentioned on the ww in a few of my leagues and think that's pretty normal but the hypocrisy is a bit amusing. 
Week 17 championships are moronic.

 
Aren't you the guy who was ripping the idea of week 17 championships just hours ago because people had values differently than you? 

I have a lot of the same players you mentioned on the ww in a few of my leagues and think that's pretty normal but the hypocrisy is a bit amusing. 
Could you unpack the connection between valuing end of bench players for a draft and the fact that week 17 championship games add another degree of blind luck?

It feels like a forced attempt to connect things that are entirely unrelated for the purpose of calling me a hypocrite. 

And I am still sincerely unsure what @Elevencents meant by his "Wow" comment. Why wow? Did I miss something about Lockett relative to those other players? Different projections? Not valuing those players the same?

Lockett is high on my roster churn list, which is exactly what I said in the referenced post so alternate perspective is appreciated. 

 
They're only different because of some arbitrary boundary you've drawn up in your mind but both are a matter of fantasy owners valuing things differently. People value players differently from you and get a touch defensive. People value leagues differently from you and they're wrong for not sharing your mindset. Is it a dumb setup? Maybe. Is it dumb to not roster some of those players? Maybe. All depends how you value things. Maybe you should keep more of an open mind when you're wanting others to do the same. 

Lockett seems like a very real top 30 candidate this season. In return leagues he could end up flirting with the top 10. Though I am concerned with their oline. Sometimes an offense takes a collective step back, so it's very possible many of those lost targets from last year don't carry over. 

 
I didn't think it was that kind of response. Seemed about on par with yours. I was sincerely wondering what your response meant. Why surprised?
I took it to be surprise at all those guys going undrafted. It was my initial reaction, too, but I'm sure some of the short bench leagues I play in have some of those names on the waiver wire. I hate my short bench leagues, but what are you going to do?

 
I took it to be surprise at all those guys going undrafted. It was my initial reaction, too, but I'm sure some of the short bench leagues I play in have some of those names on the waiver wire. I hate my short bench leagues, but what are you going to do?
That's how I took it too. We had 60 total WR/TEs drafted (combined position groups) and Lockett was the 48th off the board. There will be a tight distribution of total points or PPG among players in that tier. But you have to think one or two of those guys will way outperform their draft slots.

I see Benjamin as likely to get the most targets. But it's a terrible offense that will likely emphasize the run heavily and he probably has the worst QB group throwing him the ball. 

Godwin is probably the one I like the most out of this group. But it's a crowded receiving group and I am not really a fan of Fitzpatrick. Frankly I am a little down on Jaemis too. I think we're still a year off from Godwin's emergence.

Ross, I think is a big play waiting to happen. Man that guy can fly. And he seems to be locked in as the #2 WR in Cincinnati. I like his QB too. I worry about his ability to stay healthy and as long as Eifert is healthy the volume may be limited. Even with no Eifert I am not sure Ross is ever going to get real volume or run a ton of high percentage routes.

I think there is waaaaay too much hype for rookie WRs particularly from a redraft perspective.

Gallup has a very clear path to targets and #1 DBs. 

Miller has more help, but not so much as to kill his target share. He also looks like he can catch anything he can touch. I like him. But there are a lot of unknowns with that Bears offense. He is #1 among the rookies in redraft for me.

Sutton is built like a legitimate #1 WR. A little skinny but so is AJ Green. Unfortunately he has two entrenched vets in front of him and I am not a believer in the Broncos offensive coaching staff and skeptical they can keep Keenum on track.

Lockett is the smallest of the group and he has never quite put it together for any length of time.  While the stats show he has only missed one game in three seasons he has still struggled with injuries. But the Seahawks lost a lot of targets to free agency without doing much to replace them. He is firmly entrenched as the #2 WR with his new contract. Baldwin, on paper is dealing with a potentially lingering injury. Not enough to keep him off the field which is good for Lockett as the coverage will focus on Baldwin. And Lockett has, by far the best QB of this group of receivers.

That made Lockett the logical flyer IMO. But, like I said there is potential available on our waiver wire so if Lockett crashes he is easily replaced.

 
That made Lockett the logical flyer IMO. But, like I said there is potential available on our waiver wire so if Lockett crashes he is easily replaced.
Yeah, I'm with you. I think Lockett has the most upside of that group. Godwin is the closest, but I'd still go Lockett. I think Benjamin has a better shot at more targets, but I'll take 100-110 Wilson targets any day over 120-130 Buffalo QB targets. The rest of that group is unlikely to hit 100 targets, IMO. Well, maybe Gallup, but I think Hurns is underrated and might be Dak's guy this season while Gallup learns.

 
Positives for Lockett this year:

-Graham/Richardson departures

-Baldwin injury

-Massive $$$ commitment from Org.

-First time healthy since 2016.

-Defense a shell of its former self

-High end QB play

I'm projecting:

110 targets

75 receptions

1075 yards

6 TDs.  

I'm not sure that drafting a guy as a WR5/6 and having him turn into a high end WR2 is a league winner, but I think he's gonna help his owners a lot this year. 

 
Positives for Lockett this year:

-Graham/Richardson departures

-Baldwin injury

-Massive $$$ commitment from Org.

-First time healthy since 2016.

-Defense a shell of its former self

-High end QB play

I'm projecting:

110 targets

75 receptions

1075 yards

6 TDs.  

I'm not sure that drafting a guy as a WR5/6 and having him turn into a high end WR2 is a league winner, but I think he's gonna help his owners a lot this year. 
I'll take the under on each one of those numbers.

 
I'll take the under on each one of those numbers.
It'll be interesting to see, that's for sure. Because I see those numbers as very possible. I appreciate what you've contributed to this as well and it's allowed me to think through my own projections a lot more realistically. You've said some real plausible/realistic projections. 

If he produces as quoted above, then I think he has "arrived." If not, then I think we can officially turn the page on Lockett ever being a legitimate WR2. 

 
In a league where return yards are a point per 25.  So 1,000 return yards would be 40 points - equal to 400 receiving yards.  So even getting 700 receiving yards is like having a 1,100 WR.  Got him at pick 71.  Last year he had 1,200 return yards,

 
Asking those who watched the whole game, was Lockett even that involved with Baldwin out?

stat line looked good but mostly dependent on one big play.

with the game script about as ideal as you could get for Lockett (wasn’t Baldwin out mi-first quarter???) this seems like kind of a let down.  Despite the good day fantasy-wise.

 
Asking those who watched the whole game, was Lockett even that involved with Baldwin out?

stat line looked good but mostly dependent on one big play.

with the game script about as ideal as you could get for Lockett (wasn’t Baldwin out mi-first quarter???) this seems like kind of a let down.  Despite the good day fantasy-wise.
I didn't see all the game, but I did see his touchdown. The move he made was nice.

 
Asking those who watched the whole game, was Lockett even that involved with Baldwin out?

stat line looked good but mostly dependent on one big play.

with the game script about as ideal as you could get for Lockett (wasn’t Baldwin out mi-first quarter???) this seems like kind of a let down.  Despite the good day fantasy-wise.
He is what he is....deep bomber...can get behind the defense

 
no one should be surprised....Lockett was today exactly who he is. A boom or bust guy. You remove that one play for 50+ yards and a TD, then it would have been an average/mediocre week. The guy can make it worth it on one play...if that play doesn't come, then it will be a disappointing week. High Risk high reward guy...as he's always been.

 
Confused about this guy's potential.

Seattle extended him and invested quite a bit in Lockett. Graham and Richardson's targets need to get filled by somebody.

Baldwin already with one bad knee, now both. 

And it's my understanding he should be running a great % of his routes out of the slot where Baldwin usually runs.

What am I missing here?

Lockett either blows up here or this entire organization and the fantasy community has misjudged his ability.

 
Confused about this guy's potential.

Seattle extended him and invested quite a bit in Lockett. Graham and Richardson's targets need to get filled by somebody.

Baldwin already with one bad knee, now both. 

And it's my understanding he should be running a great % of his routes out of the slot where Baldwin usually runs.

What am I missing here?

Lockett either blows up here or this entire organization and the fantasy community has misjudged his ability.
I’d say he is what he is. The odd big play and very good on special teams. I see no sign of a breakout. The hawks overpaid imo but the contracts handed out this offseason have all been huge so who knows.

 
I have a feeling Lockett is a monster play this week. 

Baldwin is out. Marshall looks good (surprising to me at least, I can admit), but not really the kind of WR that Rodgers showed can be used to beat the Bears.

Lockett seems closer to Cobbs skill set than Marshall does. GB showed to beat the pass rush, go with a lot of 3 step drops and keep up the tempo. I just feel like this plays into Locketts strengths this week. I'm rolling him out in my flex over other RB options, but I might start him over Cooks and put Freeman at flex. undecided, but Lockett's in. 

 
I have a feeling Lockett is a monster play this week. 

Baldwin is out. Marshall looks good (surprising to me at least, I can admit), but not really the kind of WR that Rodgers showed can be used to beat the Bears.

Lockett seems closer to Cobbs skill set than Marshall does. GB showed to beat the pass rush, go with a lot of 3 step drops and keep up the tempo. I just feel like this plays into Locketts strengths this week. I'm rolling him out in my flex over other RB options, but I might start him over Cooks and put Freeman at flex. undecided, but Lockett's in. 
1. A lot of 3 step drops do not play to Lockett’s strength. 

2. Just because GB beat Chicago does not mean that for any other team to win they have to copy GB’s play calling. 

3. There is no reason to think Marshall cannot be successful against the Bears. He looked great last week. 

 

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