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WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter LawFitz
- Start date
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I want to start this guy, but I can't put him in my keeper league over Cooks or JuJu, and I don't want to put him over Chubb or Mixon at flex. #firstplaceproblems
Cooks has a higher floor than Lockett, but they have pretty equal ceilings. JuJu has been pretty solid this year with high targets.
In another league I am comfortably starting him.
Great value this year and highly underrated. Even today; many people will downgrade him due to his target share.
Consider this: Lockett has been incredibly efficient this year, catching 78.5% of his targets. If his targets and catch efficiency trends continue ROS, he will have 58 receptions, 950 yards and 12 scores
An interesting comparison, Marvin Jones was thought to be a pretty nice WR2/flex (WR24 taken in drafts according to FBG). Marvin Jones in 2017 had 61 receptions ,1100 yards and 9 scores. So more yards, but he also was incredibly inefficient- catching only 57% of his targets.
I reference Marvin Jones because him and Lockett seem to have similar skill sets, yet Jones is considered by many to be a legitimate WR, and some consider Lockett to be a pretender because of his targets.
I feel fortunate to have bought Lockett back at my trade deadline in dynasty for essentially a mid to late 2nd rounder. He will be a big help for my playoff push
Cooks has a higher floor than Lockett, but they have pretty equal ceilings. JuJu has been pretty solid this year with high targets.
In another league I am comfortably starting him.
Great value this year and highly underrated. Even today; many people will downgrade him due to his target share.
Consider this: Lockett has been incredibly efficient this year, catching 78.5% of his targets. If his targets and catch efficiency trends continue ROS, he will have 58 receptions, 950 yards and 12 scores
An interesting comparison, Marvin Jones was thought to be a pretty nice WR2/flex (WR24 taken in drafts according to FBG). Marvin Jones in 2017 had 61 receptions ,1100 yards and 9 scores. So more yards, but he also was incredibly inefficient- catching only 57% of his targets.
I reference Marvin Jones because him and Lockett seem to have similar skill sets, yet Jones is considered by many to be a legitimate WR, and some consider Lockett to be a pretender because of his targets.
I feel fortunate to have bought Lockett back at my trade deadline in dynasty for essentially a mid to late 2nd rounder. He will be a big help for my playoff push
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jtp1982
Footballguy
Downside with Lockett last time SEA played SF was the lack of targets (he scored on a 52 yard TD pass, only target of the game.
That was entirely due to Lockett being matched up against Richard Sherman on the right side of the offense for much of the game.
If Baldwin sits out this week that moves Lockett to a greater share of snaps from the slot and must play territory for me.
If Baldwin suits up I may grab Pettis off waivers and start him at my WR 2 slot, not sure.
That was entirely due to Lockett being matched up against Richard Sherman on the right side of the offense for much of the game.
If Baldwin sits out this week that moves Lockett to a greater share of snaps from the slot and must play territory for me.
If Baldwin suits up I may grab Pettis off waivers and start him at my WR 2 slot, not sure.
scott46984
Footballguy
good points
whiskey7
Footballguy
Thoughts on Lockett this week? I suspect Seattle wants to run as much as possible to keep KC O off the field in this one but I would think Wilson is going to have to sling it at some point to keep pace. Potentially, a lot. Lockett's been low volume but very efficient all year. Still, only 2 targets in two of the last three games (both vs SF) and now it seems Baldwin is healthy again. Potential for big play is always there and I could seem him having a big game if SEA is chasing. I worry the low volume may finally catch up to his owners at the worst time, though. If the game is going the Seahawks way, are they going to try to get him the ball much? 
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I considered playing him over Cooks but I'm not sure I can do it after seeing Baldwin back and looking healthy. However, I imagine it being a shoot out.Thoughts on Lockett this week? I suspect Seattle wants to run as much as possible to keep KC O off the field in this one but I would think Wilson is going to have to sling it at some point to keep pace. Potentially, a lot. Lockett's been low volume but very efficient all year. Still, only 2 targets in two of the last three games (both vs SF) and now it seems Baldwin is healthy again. Potential for big play is always there and I could seem him having a big game if SEA is chasing. I worry the low volume may finally catch up to his owners at the worst time, though. If the game is going the Seahawks way, are they going to try to get him the ball much?
I still might consider it but I have better options at this point so he will stay on my bench. I see him as a good option though, and I would recommend him depending on who else you had
This was a great post I totally overlooked before sitting Williams over Lockett. Didn’t cost me, but I should have read this sooner.
Nemesis
Footballguy
Also keep an eye on the weather.....Sunday night game
current FC says 50% rain.......in the mid 40's.......mild wind
don't know how much this impacts Lockett or the game in general with it being so far away, but just wanted to mention it as i also have Lockett in reserve and now lost both K.Allen and TBoyd this past weekdn
current FC says 50% rain.......in the mid 40's.......mild wind
don't know how much this impacts Lockett or the game in general with it being so far away, but just wanted to mention it as i also have Lockett in reserve and now lost both K.Allen and TBoyd this past weekdn
Chaka
Footballguy
I get that Baldwin is gonna Baldwin but I would think Lockett has shown enough to get more opportunities than what we are seeing.
Then again I feel the same way about Kenyan Drake and we see how that's playing out.
We all know what Lockett is. Solid WR2 boom/bust but one the most reliable out there with 9 TDs. In game scripts that require shootouts they will take shots down the field to him. Spread is 54 with KC winning by a FG. You know Mahomes is going for 50 TDs with #1 seed on the line while Sea is fighting for their playoff lives. This should turn into a shootout. Plug him in for the Ship.
A good question. The guy has been ultra efficient which begs for more usage. He's currently getting 17% of Wilson's targets which on most teams would be over 100 on the season. However, the Seahawks have found a running game and they love it. They rank dead last in the NFL in pass attempts (which actually makes the fact that Wilson ranks 3rd in passing TDs all the more impressive).
In 2017 they ranked 20th in pass attempts. Should they normalize in 2019, Lockett should be able to regress in efficiency and maintain his WR2 status (he's currently WR20 in 1PPR... ahead of Landry who has over twice as many targets.)
The Frankman
Footballguy
Stunned it took this long to find this thread.
With Doug Baldwin retiring due to accumulated injuries Tyler Lockett is Seattle's new #1 receiver, with the rest of the crew being David Moore and D.K. Metcalfe. It's not a stretch to lock in 8 targets a game from him now.
With Doug Baldwin retiring due to accumulated injuries Tyler Lockett is Seattle's new #1 receiver, with the rest of the crew being David Moore and D.K. Metcalfe. It's not a stretch to lock in 8 targets a game from him now.
az_prof
Footballguy
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I think he's going to be an every-week starter for most fantasy teams, but I own him in three dynasties with varied scoring systems (even one that gives huge bonuses for long TDs) and I've never once gotten an offer for him. He might be a WR2/3 in rankings, but I feel like people view him as a WR4/5.
I've never seen a player average over 3 points per target. I'd say his ceiling is extremely high. His weekly floor is quite low, though. He's an ideal best ball player.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Opposite for me...
Traded for him this time last year. flipped him and Yeldon at about week 6 for a 2019 1st. Then traded for him right at the trade deadline for a 2019 2nd. Traded him in the offseason with a few others for 2020 1st.
Traded him twice and traded for.him twice
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jtd13
Footballguy
At least last year, he was completely the opposite of high floor, low ceiling. What makes you say he has a low ceiling? Just passing volume in Seattle?
Apple Juice
Footballguy
One of the most underrated players in fantasy. There's no discussion on him because the universal narrative is that he won't repeat his efficiency and he won't get more targets. Not sure why everybody assumes the only way he can be good is if he maintains his efficiency. He should see a lot more targets this year. It's highly unlikely Seattle will be able to run as much as they did last year, even if they want to.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I think he means season total and you mean weekly score.
But that's not even true. His best total last year was 5 catches. He had one 100 yard game (107 yards- but he also had a 99 and a 98 yard game). He had 0 multi touchdown games - but he had 10 games with 1 touchdown. If you only watch box scores (and tripitup is not that guy) he actually was high floor low ceiling each week.
Last year what seemed to happen was that Wilson used him early to get the lead and late if he needed to catch up. If Seattle got to an early lead then his numbers could suffer. It didn't work exactly that way, but it was close enough.
The question is whether he'll get fed now that he's the presumptive wr1. The knock on him is that he only had 71 targets last year and can't keep up his ridiculous per- target numbers. It stands to reason that he would have 100 plus targets this year without Baldwin. In 3 weeks without Baldwin he had 7, 6 and 6 targets for 5, 5 and 4 receptions - that's pace for 106 targets. So even with less efficiency, it seems likely his targets go up.
That probably means 1000 yards and a bunch of touchdowns. Maybe 1100 yards. Probably not 1400 yards.
I like the guy a lot and own him in dynasty with guys who frequent this board in the off season.. But I agree with Trip that he's high floor low ceiling and would rather have a higher upside player (especially in ppr).
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I think the ceiling comes into play if Seattle's defense sputters this year and they need to throw the ball more. His ceiling is that his efficiency wasn't a fluke and he really is a great receiver.
I think we often get too caught up in notions of ceiling and floor. It rarely seems to work out that way and a lot of times the guys with the safest floors end up being total busts and guys with limited upside end up becoming outright studs. If I recall guys like Hopkins, Antonio Brown, M Thomas, JuJu, and Keenan Allen were seen as guys who could be long term fantasy WR2's but didn't really have that big ceiling that people wanted.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Like i said i'm fairly high on him.
I think the best way to look at him is as a guy you'd start any week he plays a good offense. He's not a possession receiver and he's not a guy i'm worried about the defense he plays because i trust Wilson to hit him a couple times. But against a bad offense he might get taken out for a quarter or more.
If you use him like that I think you get high end wr2 numbers for a dozen or so weeks
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
We don't give points for second place in my league but you do get a large cash prize.
Tau837
Footballguy
This is the best description I recall seeing of him, and this thread is 19 pages long. (Granted, his outlook improved considerably over the past year, and this thread goes back much further than that.)
so so true. Yes, he got 70 targets. Yes he got 10 TDs which he probably won't get this year. And yes Wilson had a passing TD% of 8.2% and that will likely lower to 7.0% or so - but I don't care. Not only will the targets very likely increase, but Lockett is just so so good at so many routes, and it is clear at this point that Lockett and Wilson have an amazing rapport.
Also, if Metcalf is what I think he is, and that is torching people on 9/post/corner routes, defenses may become wary of that and open some stuff underneath. Just my opinion.
jtd13
Footballguy
Looking at his weekly scores, I get what you are saying. He finished in the teens but under 20 points almost every week in PPR.
I guess he just felt like a low floor high ceiling guy last year, because as you watched each game he would go 2 or 3 quarters with almost nothing, and you would wonder if he was going to give you a 0, then he'd have a couple long catches and a TD in the 4th to make it a nice game.
az_prof
Footballguy
I traded for him last fall: offered Mark Andrews, Curtis Samuel and this year 2nd rounder for Lockett. I'm very high on him.Opposite for me...
Traded for him this time last year. flipped him and Yeldon at about week 6 for a 2019 1st. Then traded for him right at the trade deadline for a 2019 2nd. Traded him in the offseason with a few others for 2020 1st.
Traded him twice and traded for.him twice
ZWK
Footballguy
Lockett had ridiculously unsustainable efficiency in 2018. Among all WRs with 50+ targets, he was 1st in yards per target (13.8), 2nd in TDs per target (1 TD per 7.0 targets) behind Mike Williams, and 2nd in catch rate (81.4%) behind Michael Thomas. Those numbers are obviously going to come down.
But he's very likely to see an increase in targets from the 70 he had last year. He earned more looks with his per-target production, he should step into a bigger role with Baldwin retiring, and Seattle should throw the ball more than their league-low 427 passing attempts.
Seattle's top WR has had at least a 20% target share in every one of Wilson's seasons (except 2018, where Baldwin was on pace for a 21% share but missed 3 games), with an average of 21.5% (if we pro-rate Baldwin's 2018). Lockett had a 16.4% target share in 2018, after having a 12.8% target share in 2015-17. So that did go up in 2018 even though his targets stuck around 70 - Seattle just threw fewer passes. And it's likely to go up some more in 2019.
Lockett is great at making plays after things break down, which was one of Baldwin's strengths and is one of Wilson's big strengths.
I have Lockett ranked as dynasty WR29 and I've been trying to buy this offseason. I'd take him ahead of any of the rookie WRs except for Harry.
But he's very likely to see an increase in targets from the 70 he had last year. He earned more looks with his per-target production, he should step into a bigger role with Baldwin retiring, and Seattle should throw the ball more than their league-low 427 passing attempts.
Seattle's top WR has had at least a 20% target share in every one of Wilson's seasons (except 2018, where Baldwin was on pace for a 21% share but missed 3 games), with an average of 21.5% (if we pro-rate Baldwin's 2018). Lockett had a 16.4% target share in 2018, after having a 12.8% target share in 2015-17. So that did go up in 2018 even though his targets stuck around 70 - Seattle just threw fewer passes. And it's likely to go up some more in 2019.
Lockett is great at making plays after things break down, which was one of Baldwin's strengths and is one of Wilson's big strengths.
I have Lockett ranked as dynasty WR29 and I've been trying to buy this offseason. I'd take him ahead of any of the rookie WRs except for Harry.
TripItUp
Footballguy
jm192
Footballguy
If someone can post the splits--I think he had something like 2.3 more targets per game without Baldwin. That's 36.8 more targets or 36 to be conservative/simple.
His absurd efficiency has to regress to the mean. But there's more opportunity.
I would think you're looking at something like 70-75 catches, 950-1000 yards, 7-8 TD's.
His absurd efficiency has to regress to the mean. But there's more opportunity.
I would think you're looking at something like 70-75 catches, 950-1000 yards, 7-8 TD's.
It was only 3-4 games. Week 1, Baldwin only played 11 snaps. So if you count that one, Lockett had 5.75 targets per game without Baldwin and 4 targets per game with him (I think he had 6 targets in the playoff loss, too). That would be a pace of 92 targets. But the real question is if Seattle is going to throw as little as they did last year. Wilson only threw 427 passes after throwing 546 and 553 the previous two years.jm192 said:
P.S. I think he also had 6 PIs against him for 182 yards and those don't show up as targets.
pinequick
Footballguy
Why did I have it in my head that this guy was always hurt? Went to Pro Football Reference, which indicates that he has only missed one game in his career (1 game in 2015). So durability is not an issue with him?
He broke his leg pretty bad one season and it really hampered him the following season. Was one of those breaks where it needed basically a year for full recovery. I believe it was last season that he was back to full strength.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Fully agree. While efficiency might regress to the mean, so will Seattle’s passing attempts. Outside of Lockett last year who can you name from the wr core- Moore? And then? A hampered Baldwin who basically said at some point last year that he was like 75%? Nick vannett and will dissly? 5 catches a game should be pretty easy to get.
I think he also played through a PCL or LCL injury to start his sophomore season which also limited him. I feel like he's only been healthy his first and fourth seasons.
Tau837
Footballguy
They did draft 3 WRs including Metcalf in the 2nd and Jennings in the 4th. I expect the (first) 5 WRs on the roster this year will be Lockett, Metcalf, Moore, Jaron Brown, and Jennings.Snorkelson said:
Baldwin vacates 73 targets and Marshall vacates 23. But Metcalf will likely get a lot of those, Dissly missed 12 games last season, and Moore's targets could increase -- he had 3 targets in the first 4 games, then 50 targets over the last 12 games.
I will take the under on 100 targets for Lockett this season.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I'm with JWB...
I dont see a scenario where Lockett gets 100, but anything is possible I guess. Lockett is a great sell high right now considering the hype around his role.
I dont see a scenario where Lockett gets 100, but anything is possible I guess. Lockett is a great sell high right now considering the hype around his role.
But what can you conceivably get for him? I don’t think anyone is giving up a 1st, and I haven’t received a single offer for him in any of my leagues.
No way I’m selling for a 2nd or a pair of 2nds.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
DTC has him ranked somewhere between 2020 mid 1st and late 1st.
Late 2020 1st is a bargain. Late 1st and late 2nd is about right
If you havent drafted yet, he is worth 1.7
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
FTR I traded him for what will end up being a late 2020 1st pre Baldwin retirement. I think I sold light. It was Lockett, MVS and some lotto shots for 2020 1, 2, 3
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Baldwin, the wr1 in the offense, had target numbers of 116, 125, and 103 before last years injury riddled season. It isn’t inconceivable that he gets 100+. They didn’t throw a lot last year, but they didn’t have any weapons. Moore got targets because Baldwin was playing on one leg. Wilson was playing banged up too if I recall. They drafted a bunch of guys because they didn’t have any passing game weapons, and I think they will pass more- maybe not a big increase this coming year (but an increase) and a bigger increase in coming years.
The time to buy was last year.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
I was offered a 2nd and McKinnon for Lockett. I actually am a McKinnon fan but I think I need a 2020 1st.
Tau837
Footballguy
Wilson was not “banged up” last year.
Seattle didn’t throw a lot because Carroll wanted a run heavy offense. No reason to expect that to change this season.
I didn’t say it is inconceivable that he gets 100+, I said I will take the under on that number.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I’m sorry I wasn’t trying to put words in your mouth. I thought I remember Wilson playing through some injury later on in the season.
Hamstring?
That’s about all I could find, I really don’t know. Sounds like he was playing through a hamstring injury for a few weeks.
I think he has a floor of maybe 85 targets and a ceiling of 120? I bet a good handful of owners would take an early 2nd, and that’s a pretty solid margin to bet a 2nd on imo. They might still end up bottom of the league in attempts but Lockett has a great opportunity.
ETA I found a profootballtalk article as well stating he injured his hamstring in the game but then had the same quotes about “prehab” so I didn’t bother linking it. Short blurb, nothing about any of the other stuff.
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Tau837
Footballguy
I don't see how his floor can be 85 when just last season he got only 70 despite:Snorkelson said:
- Being healthy all season
- Baldwin missing 3 games and playing at well below 100% in most of the others
- 2015: 69
- 2016: 66
- 2017: 71
- 2018: 70
And a ceiling of 120 targets is 70% more than his previous season career high. I think there is zero chance of that happening.
I will agree to disagree, but I think some people are expecting way too much.
