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Tyrell Williams, Raiders WR (Deep dynasty watch)

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16 hours ago, 3nOut said:

I've been very happy with T Williams' production so far. I've been playing matchups for my WRs but just can't start him this week over Julio, Cobb, and Allen Robinson. Been considering him over Robinson though. 

If it helps, I'm also deciding between TWill and Cobb in 0.5 PPR. Agree with TS that its very close. As of right now, leaning Williams because I just can't see a lot of risk factors. I like Cobb a lot this week, but there is at least a small chance that he's still limited or reinjures the hammy, or GB gets up and pulls him to make sure he stays healthy. Williams, meanwhile, pretty much has the WR1 role locked up in a neutral matchup  

In your case, I'd probably sit ARob. Much higher risk, plus bad matchup. 

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Williams was limited in practice on Friday.

Travis Benjamin is Doubtful

Inman is healthy and has a Hall of Fame QB slinging it. Miami is decent against the run but very suspect in the secondary. Pro Bowl,Safety Rashad Jones is on IR...Inman is coming off b2b double digit production in PPR, this week I expect him to push that closer to 20. 6/75/TD.

Edited by Ministry of Pain

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Have small benches and he was dropped...may have to dump t west or k Dixon for him.

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Tyrell was limited in practice last week and played. He'll play and play well. I'm expecting a big game where he leads the team in targets. Then he has a bye to rest that knee next week. 

Edited by Milkman

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So frustrating. Two red zone targets, one where Tyrell draws a PI and the second when he's surrounded by defenders. The play before though he missed him when he came uncovered on the GL. UGH

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Man it's quiet in here........he looked good to me.......

Edited by Milkman

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1 hour ago, Milkman said:

So frustrating. Two red zone targets, one where Tyrell draws a PI and the second when he's surrounded by defenders. The play before though he missed him when he came uncovered on the GL. UGH

Call the Whambulance

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1 minute ago, need2know said:

He was great.  could have been better though.  all those damn ints were targets for him

Yeah but was it him running bad routes or was it Rivers trying to lean on him?

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6 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Yeah but was it him running bad routes or was it Rivers trying to lean on him?

Prob some of both 

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Kid is talented no doubt.  There was visibly a lot more frustration expressed by Rivers with Williams than all the other pass catchers combined on Rivers part.  At least 2-3 throws down the sidelines where Rivers expected a comeback yet Williams ran a go.  Sure seemed like Williams just isn't yet sure how to read the coverage and process adjustments quickly.  But that's the catch with him, right?  He's raw.  If he can get the nuances down he's a nightmare.  My biggest concern is that he's not seeming to progress all that quickly on that front, and Allen should be back next year with Rivers full trust and about 160 targets.

Edited by SayWhat?

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Lol this game was the epitome of Williams. Wrong route followed immediately by long td.

He always comes through for me when I play him in fanduel. His good games and bad games have been fairly predictable.

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Dropped by a owner in injury/bye hell...how much of your FAAB budget would you spend on him?

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On ‎10‎/‎26‎/‎2016 at 2:11 PM, JFS171 said:

Has anyone explored selling?  Don't get me wrong, the kid's got talent... but Allen will be the top dog when he returns next year, assuming health.  The TE will still be a factor with Henry proving his mettle.  They seem to want to run Melvin Gordon into the ground.

It *feels* to me like his share of the pie is at its plausible peak for the next few years, but perhaps I'm off in that assessment.

I don't think you're off on your assessment - even if/when Gates retires. I'd consider selling depending on the price, but wouldn't just rush out to give him away. He's a solid young talent and will at least be decent depth. In the league I own him I don't think I'll consider selling since he's been a great flex option for me when I put him in my lineup and I'm in serious contention.

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Seems like he's got oodles of talent, just not much between the ears.

For dynasty purposes, I also think that owners should enjoy the ride while they can assuming Allen can make it back close to 100%.

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On ‎11‎/‎11‎/‎2016 at 3:06 PM, mnmplayer said:

Good point for NEXT year, not THIS year.

...and as far as next year goes, you don't have to play him against Denver if you have decent depth. I've benched him in those two games this season. So yes going forward it sucks he'll have tow games against Denver (assuming they maintain their defensive dominance) - but it's not like you're forced to take the 5 points from your WR3 those weeks.

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20 minutes ago, zamboni said:

Seems like he's got oodles of talent, just not much between the ears.

For dynasty purposes, I also think that owners should enjoy the ride while they can assuming Allen can make it back close to 100%.

this

i am having trouble trying to decide if I need to move him at some point before then, or hold and hope he is still relevant or could retain value if allen gets hurt again or doesnt make it back to form

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My only concern from yesterdays game is how much confidence will Rivers have in him going forward since Rivers was clearly not happy with the routes he ran when Rivers got picked since the last two picks were passes intended for Tyrell.

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Last year he had one catch.  All year. Two months ago he was their wr3 with upside behind allen and benjamin and mixing in with inman.  He had 2 catches for 71 yards in that first game.  

So yeah, he's raw, and he made some mistakes.  But he's clearly their best wr. And they have a bye week to get him some film time and route running and rest for the stretch run.  

He's played 8 games not against Denver. 

Weeks 1-4: 16 receptions 241 yards 1 td

Weeks 5, 7, 9, 10: 23 receptions 447 yards 3 td

Let that sink in.  The last 4 games not against Denver, he has been on a pace for 92/1788/12.  He obviously won't come close to those numbers, but that's what he's done vs the raiders, falcons, titans and dolphins.  He faces the bucs, panthers, raiders and browns weeks 13 to 16.  

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just traded for him and now I own him in every redraft league.  love his stretch run potential.  hopefully he and rivers can get on the same page on those back shoulders

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44 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

...and as far as next year goes, you don't have to play him against Denver if you have decent depth. I've benched him in those two games this season. So yes going forward it sucks he'll have tow games against Denver (assuming they maintain their defensive dominance) - but it's not like you're forced to take the 5 points from your WR3 those weeks.

As far as Denver goes, he played in one game last season, against Denver, and beat Talib for an 80 yard TD. I don't think it is necessarily required to bench him in those games.

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52 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

Last year he had one catch.  All year. Two months ago he was their wr3 with upside behind allen and benjamin and mixing in with inman.  He had 2 catches for 71 yards in that first game.  

So yeah, he's raw, and he made some mistakes.  But he's clearly their best wr. And they have a bye week to get him some film time and route running and rest for the stretch run.  

He's played 8 games not against Denver. 

Weeks 1-4: 16 receptions 241 yards 1 td

Weeks 5, 7, 9, 10: 23 receptions 447 yards 3 td

Let that sink in.  The last 4 games not against Denver, he has been on a pace for 92/1788/12.  He obviously won't come close to those numbers, but that's what he's done vs the raiders, falcons, titans and dolphins.  He faces the bucs, panthers, raiders and browns weeks 13 to 16.  

This

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Very talented still raw. When he runs better routes I am not sure sure Keenan is that far ahead of him. Given Keenan's inability to stay healthy, this kid could easily be there number 1 or the future. Keenan I think will be in a contract year. They may let him walk if Tyrell truly steps up. Keenan dating back to 2012- sprained ankle, broken collarbone, kidney injury, pcl sprain, acl tear. 3 season enders. 

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10 minutes ago, thehornet said:

Very talented still raw. When he runs better routes I am not sure sure Keenan is that far ahead of him. Given Keenan's inability to stay healthy, this kid could easily be there number 1 or the future. Keenan I think will be in a contract year. They may let him walk if Tyrell truly steps up. Keenan dating back to 2012- sprained ankle, broken collarbone, kidney injury, pcl sprain, acl tear. 3 season enders. 

Keenan just signed a 4 year contract extension this offseason, as long as rivers is the QB I can see both of them putting up good numbers in the future playing together, the main thing would be neither guy will have the ceiling they did when they were the main guy 

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53 minutes ago, thehornet said:

Very talented still raw. When he runs better routes I am not sure sure Keenan is that far ahead of him. Given Keenan's inability to stay healthy, this kid could easily be there number 1 or the future. Keenan I think will be in a contract year. They may let him walk if Tyrell truly steps up. Keenan dating back to 2012- sprained ankle, broken collarbone, kidney injury, pcl sprain, acl tear. 3 season enders. 

Keenan/Tyrell >>>>>>> Tyrell/Inman. Keenan Allen is one of the most polished route runners in the league. No way they let him walk. Tyrell is not a great of even good route runner. Right now he is almost a one or two trick pony. He lived off that 4-5 yard crossing route for about 6 games this year and only started doing more, and making horrible mistakes in the process. He is a good compliment to the reliability of Allen. Allen can run any route effectively and with Tyrell as option #2 I think he will be the perfect compliment as his 5 yard crossing route is a killer and he can go deep, but when you need a first down or around the goal line, he's not there yet. That is Allen's bread and butter.

Edited by mnmplayer
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Allen is going nowhere, he signed a 4 year $45M extension in the offseason. Benjamin is also going nowhere, as he was signed to a 4 year $24M contract in the offseason.

I expect Stevie Johnson to be released. Inman will be a free agent; I think the Chargers will try to bring him back if his contract expectations are reasonable (i.e., cheap). Regardless, if he is back, Inman will be the #4.

As I have posted before, IMO Williams is looking at ~100 targets per year if he and the other targets stay relatively healthy.

Edited by Just Win Baby
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2 hours ago, mnmplayer said:

Keenan/Tyrell >>>>>>> Tyrell/Inman. Keenan Allen is one of the most polished route runners in the league. No way they let him walk. Tyrell is not a great of even good route runner. Right now he is almost a one or two trick pony. He lived off that 4-5 yard crossing route for about 6 games this year and only started doing more, and making horrible mistakes in the process. He is a good compliment to the reliability of Allen. Allen can run any route effectively and with Tyrell as option #2 I think he will be the perfect compliment as his 5 yard crossing route is a killer and he can go deep, but when you need a first down or around the goal line, he's not there yet. That is Allen's bread and butter.

Good stuff. Appreciate the insight. Cant argue with any of it. Tyrell has a lot of room to grow. I would say that there are also things that Tyrell can do that Keenan cannot. Keenan doesnt stretch the field the same way. Tyrell is also a bigger body and faster. He will prob also be a better redzone threat if he continues to develop. He might be already. 

Edited by thehornet

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10 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Allen is going nowhere, he signed a 4 year $45M extension in the offseason. Benjamin is also going nowhere, as he was signed to a 4 year $24M contract in the offseason.

I expect Stevie Johnson to be released. Inman will be a free agent; I think the Chargers will try to bring him back if his contract expectations are reasonable (i.e., cheap). Regardless, if he is back, Inman will be the #4.

As I have posted before, IMO Williams is looking at ~100 targets per year if he and the other targets stay relatively healthy.

Tyrell's ceiling is higher. He needs to work on some things like running routes and making the correct adjustments at the LOS but he absolutely could be better than Allen over the next 4-5 years. Totally in his range of possible outcomes.

Edited by Milkman

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20 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Allen is going nowhere, he signed a 4 year $45M extension in the offseason. Benjamin is also going nowhere, as he was signed to a 4 year $24M contract in the offseason.

I expect Stevie Johnson to be released. Inman will be a free agent; I think the Chargers will try to bring him back if his contract expectations are reasonable (i.e., cheap). Regardless, if he is back, Inman will be the #4.

As I have posted before, IMO Williams is looking at ~100 targets per year if he and the other targets stay relatively healthy.

Thanks. Not up to date on chargers contracts. I read on a site he was coming up on FA but it must have been a prior year. 

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Feel like he and Rivers were not on the same page, despite good fantasy output, and a bit concerned about next year being a down sophomore year.  Just offered Williams + a 2nd orund pick for Josh Doctson in a Dynasty league.  

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22 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Tyrell's ceiling is higher. He needs to work on some things like running routes and making the correct adjustments at the LOS but he absolutely could be better than Allen over the next 4-5 years. Totally in his range of possible outcomes.

Allen's performance in 2015-16 projects to 146/1576/8 over 16 games. The big question for Allen is whether or not he can stay healthy.

Is a ceiling higher than 146/1576/8 within the range of possible outcomes for Williams? Well, sure, but the odds of him ever performing at that level seem low.

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7 minutes ago, 2ksports said:

Feel like he and Rivers were not on the same page, despite good fantasy output, and a bit concerned about next year being a down sophomore year.  Just offered Williams + a 2nd orund pick for Josh Doctson in a Dynasty league.  

Next year will be Williams' third season in the league. He made a massive improvement between seasons 1 and 2, not sure why anyone would be concerned about his play regressing. I could see concern about his opportunity regressing, though it is worth pointing out that he is only on pace for 114 targets this season, despite the absence of Allen, Stevie, and Woodhead.

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37 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Allen's performance in 2015-16 projects to 146/1576/8 over 16 games. The big question for Allen is whether or not he can stay healthy.

Is a ceiling higher than 146/1576/8 within the range of possible outcomes for Williams? Well, sure, but the odds of him ever performing at that level seem low.

I got 134-1450-8 as Allen's 2015-16 projected out over a 16 game season. Maybe you're doing something with the game he got hurt that I'm not. Either way that's a pretty uninspiring 10.8 yards per catch. Allen is nowhere near as dynamic a player as Tyrell and Tyrell is nowhere near the route runner Allen is. Which situation can be improved and which situation can not.

 

If Tyrell learns the nuances of the position, which is not a given but possible, he can in fact be better than Allen. Allen however, will never be as explosive as Tyrell and can never be the vertical threat Tyrell already is. 

 

Basically we have already seen Keenan's ceiling and it's impressive but it relies on a very heavy target rate that is rarely achieved. Basically he'll never hit 188 targets with another receiving threat like Tyrell on the same team. Tyrell however does a significant amount more damage on a per catch basis and doesn't need 188 targets to put up those numbers. Even if he was to regress some on his ypc to 15.5 .......130 targets and a 60%ish catch rate gets him 78-1200+ yards. If Allen drops down to a more sustainable 155 targets and a 65% catch rate he's only at 100-1100.......

 

All this is well within the range of possible outcomes with both on the team. Now if either gets hurt again then yes the targets could go up. 

 

One more thing to consider here. We're basically comparing Tyrell's rookie year to Allen's 3rd year but they are the same age. 

 

Anyway I can't wait to see how the season plays out and how they work both these guys in next year. Their skill sets are very different. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Just Win Baby said:

Allen's performance in 2015-16 projects to 146/1576/8 over 16 games. The big question for Allen is whether or not he can stay healthy.

Is a ceiling higher than 146/1576/8 within the range of possible outcomes for Williams? Well, sure, but the odds of him ever performing at that level seem low.

Yeah he wasn't going to catch that many balls. It is an outlier. Hes more a 110 catch guy in a great year. He's never going to get 200 targets. 

 

I think Tyrell is on pace for excellent yardage. 

Edited by thehornet

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Could we see a situation like the Jets (prior to Decker's injury) with a 1A and 1B?  Or the Broncos if they had a better QB?   With Rivers back for another year and a solid running game to keep defenses honest, SD could be a very difficult team to defend next year.

Signed,

A Hopeful Williams Owner

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2 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

Allen's performance in 2015-16 projects to 146/1576/8 over 16 games. The big question for Allen is whether or not he can stay healthy.

Is a ceiling higher than 146/1576/8 within the range of possible outcomes for Williams? Well, sure, but the odds of him ever performing at that level seem low.

He's on pace for 69/1150/7.  

If you take out his two Denver games, where he had 3 and 1 catches respectively, and assume he will remain on that pace, he's on pace for 73/1237/7.  

If you assume he progressed from his first 4 games to his next 4, and that he will continue on his more recent pace (23/447/3), he would progress to 79/1390/9.  

If you project a whole season of 14 games at his pace from these last 4 non denver games only (23/447/3) and continue to give him the 4 catches for 32 he had against denver, he'd be on pace for 84/1592/10 - better than keenan allen's pace of 1576/8 but not with as many receptions.  

Realistically, though, neither allen nor williams will magically hit their pace from their best stretches.  

The difference is that Williams did his damage the last 4 weeks on 34 targets - plus 9 against denver - which is a pace for 128 targets.  128 targets is definitely achievable, but a decline to 100 would be about 20%, and 115 about 10%.  1592/10 ain't happening, but with some improvement from year two to year 3, but also a more difficult schedule, he probably caps out as a 1200/8 guy.  

Allen, on the other hand, is far more likely to be impacted negatively from his 2015 pace.  It's worth pointing out that Allen doesn't even have 16 post-emergence games under his belt.   And he probably won't get 146 receptions because he won't need to.  They won't want to or need to force feed it to their injury prone stud  And coming off another season ender, his per target numbers may slip.  He was already averaging under 11 yards a catch before getting hurt, so a decline in targets would have a pretty linear effect on his performance, but a decline in efficiency could be devastating.  

All things considered, I think it's much more realistic for williams to maintain his target volume and efficiency alongside a healthy allen, benjamin, inman, henry, and the running backs, than for allen to do the same.  He's also a bigger risk to be a one year wonder. Ask Sammie Coates owners about the difference between being a favorite target of a stud qb and what happens when you screw up and other options arise.  But Allen could be fully healthy and just be OK.  

 

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I only brought up Allen because @Milkman claimed that Tyrell's ceiling is higher, and I think that is unlikely, since I think it is unlikely Tyrell will achieve a line like 67/725/4 over an 8 (really 7.5) game stretch (without removing Denver games :rolleyes:). Allen did that just last year in his last healthy 8 game stretch, and he picked up right where he left off this year until he got hurt... if anything, Allen looked better this year... he was uncoverable before getting hurt.

Obviously, Allen and Tyrell are not comparable as players. They have different strengths, and they should be complementary if they both stay healthy going forward after this season.

As for Tyrell's targets going forward, IMO there is a lot of overreaching happening in the projections being posted. The Chargers' WRs under McCoy have averaged the following season totals: 306 targets, 193 receptions, 2559 receiving yards, 16 receiving TDs. But now people are projecting 130 targets for Tyrell next season? 1200/8, so he will get a full 50% of the typical TD total and nearly 50% of the receiving yards?

Maybe if you are projecting one or more injuries to Allen and Benjamin... and projecting that Gates retires (likely) and Woodhead doesn't return (who knows). That is a lot of things that have to line up for some of these projections to work out.

To be clear, I like Tyrell. I have stated in this thread that I think he is a top 30 dynasty WR right now, but not much higher due to my expectation that his season targets should be projected around 100 or so, barring a lot of circumstances such as described above.

I would feel much better about his prospects if he wasn't still running the wrong routes and/or making the wrong reads 10 games into the season, when he has been getting a lot of reps. Rivers has played with a lot of WRs, but I don't remember him getting on any WR close to as often as he has done with Tyrell. Maybe another offseason fixes that. IMO it is more likely that he is who we are seeing right now, a WR2/WR3 who can fill in reasonably well when needed due to injuries. I'm sure he will get better going forward, but I don't see any reason to expect a major leap forward.

:shrug:

Edited by Just Win Baby
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So you think its out of the question to think a WR with a 16.7 ypc average has a higher ceiling than a receiver with a 11.8 ypc average?

 

I agree they will compliment each other well. I guess I just see room for growth with Tyrell. I mean he's a rookie basically. Sheeesh.

Edited by Milkman

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5 minutes ago, Milkman said:

So you think its out of the question to think a WR with a 16.7 ypc average has a higher ceiling than a receiver with a 11.8 ypc average?

 

I agree they will compliment each other well. I guess I just see room for growth with Tyrell. I mean he's a rookie basically. Sheeesh.

Out of the question that he will ever achieve a season better than Allen's best? No, I already said it is within the range of outcomes. I just believe it is unlikely for the reasons I've outlined. We can agree to disagree if you don't want to address the specific points I made, no big deal.

I mean, how far apart are we really? I think Tyrell is a top 30 WR, and I thought you have posted in this thread that you think he is also around that ranking.

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Just now, Just Win Baby said:

Out of the question that he will ever achieve a season better than Allen's best? No, I already said it is within the range of outcomes. I just believe it is unlikely for the reasons I've outlined. We can agree to disagree if you don't want to address the specific points I made, no big deal.

I mean, how far apart are we really? I think Tyrell is a top 30 WR, and I thought you have posted in this thread that you think he is also around that ranking.

No we mostly agree on Tyrell. I have him in the 28-29 range because of the uncertainty of his usage going forward but I do see a path where he could be become the #1 WR on that team even with Keenan there. I'm not a huge fan of Keenan Allen though and maybe that's where our outlooks don't match up. Tyrell is a basically a rookie receiver getting ready to go over 1000 yards and he's run pretty unlucky in the redzone or he might have hit 10 TD's too.

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Anyone nervous about starting him this week? Houston is third best in FFPA to WRs. Still, all my other options have bad match-ups, too (Sanders, Cobb, Latavius, Howard) so I'm inclined to stick with the guy who's been the most consistent. 

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17 minutes ago, zftcg said:

Anyone nervous about starting him this week? Houston is third best in FFPA to WRs. Still, all my other options have bad match-ups, too (Sanders, Cobb, Latavius, Howard) so I'm inclined to stick with the guy who's been the most consistent. 

Playing Landry over him

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16 minutes ago, zftcg said:

Anyone nervous about starting him this week? Houston is third best in FFPA to WRs. Still, all my other options have bad match-ups, too (Sanders, Cobb, Latavius, Howard) so I'm inclined to stick with the guy who's been the most consistent. 

Definitely nervous but don't have many options this week. Either him or Watkins...at least the targets will be there for Williams.

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Guys, I have watched every snap of Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams career.  They are not comparable, and it's not even close.  When healthy, Allen is an All Pro level WR.  Tyrell Williams has great size and speed, but that's about it.  His routes aren't crisp and he is often in the wrong place despite being with the team for 2 years. He's great on late drags across the middle because of his size but that's by far his best route.  Everything else is a crapshoot.  

There is a reason a 6'4, 200 lb WR who can run ends up at Western Oregon and then goes undrafted.  He's helping 3 of my fantasy teams to high finishes, but it's all due to volume.  With a healthy WR corps next year and Hunter Henry becoming the #2 option in the passing game after Allen, Tyrell moves back to 5th in line in the passing game where he belongs.  

Edited by tommyGunZ

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I'm starting him....mostly for lack of better options (Gabriel v. ARI, Hill @DEN, Humphries v. SEA, Meredith v. TEN w/ Barkley tossing the rock).....but, coming off a bye and likely the healthiest he's been in a while, I like his chances for a solid stat line and a TD....especially in PPR leagues.

Just my two cents....

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10 minutes ago, tommyGunZ said:

Guys, I have watched every snap of Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams career.  They are not comparable, and it's not even close.  When healthy, Allen is an All Pro level WR.  Tyrell Williams has great size and speed, but that's about it.  His routes aren't crisp and he is often in the wrong place despite being with the team for 2 years. He's great on late drags across the middle because of his size but that's by far his best route.  Everything else is a crapshoot.  

There is a reason a 6'4, 200 lb WR who can run ends up at Western Oregon and then goes undrafted.  He's helping 3 of my fantasy teams to high finishes, but it's all due to volume.  With a healthy WR corps next year and Hunter Henry becoming the #2 option in the passing game after Allen, Tyrell moves back to 5th in line in the passing game where he belongs.  

5th in line?  Behind who exactly?  Also Henry being automatic 2nd option is a stretch.   Obviously he's not above Allen but I think there is plenty of debate for who will be 2nd in line.   Players can change and improve over time...

Edited by kittenmittens

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