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WR Tyrell Williams, DET - 9.22.21 - Concussion - Unlikely To Play Week 3 (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Redmen62
- Start date
OU#1
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
need2know
Footballguy
Kid is talented no doubt. There was visibly a lot more frustration expressed by Rivers with Williams than all the other pass catchers combined on Rivers part. At least 2-3 throws down the sidelines where Rivers expected a comeback yet Williams ran a go. Sure seemed like Williams just isn't yet sure how to read the coverage and process adjustments quickly. But that's the catch with him, right? He's raw. If he can get the nuances down he's a nightmare. My biggest concern is that he's not seeming to progress all that quickly on that front, and Allen should be back next year with Rivers full trust and about 160 targets.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I don't think you're off on your assessment - even if/when Gates retires. I'd consider selling depending on the price, but wouldn't just rush out to give him away. He's a solid young talent and will at least be decent depth. In the league I own him I don't think I'll consider selling since he's been a great flex option for me when I put him in my lineup and I'm in serious contention.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
...and as far as next year goes, you don't have to play him against Denver if you have decent depth. I've benched him in those two games this season. So yes going forward it sucks he'll have tow games against Denver (assuming they maintain their defensive dominance) - but it's not like you're forced to take the 5 points from your WR3 those weeks.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Last year he had one catch. All year. Two months ago he was their wr3 with upside behind allen and benjamin and mixing in with inman. He had 2 catches for 71 yards in that first game.
So yeah, he's raw, and he made some mistakes. But he's clearly their best wr. And they have a bye week to get him some film time and route running and rest for the stretch run.
He's played 8 games not against Denver.
Weeks 1-4: 16 receptions 241 yards 1 td
Weeks 5, 7, 9, 10: 23 receptions 447 yards 3 td
Let that sink in. The last 4 games not against Denver, he has been on a pace for 92/1788/12. He obviously won't come close to those numbers, but that's what he's done vs the raiders, falcons, titans and dolphins. He faces the bucs, panthers, raiders and browns weeks 13 to 16.
So yeah, he's raw, and he made some mistakes. But he's clearly their best wr. And they have a bye week to get him some film time and route running and rest for the stretch run.
He's played 8 games not against Denver.
Weeks 1-4: 16 receptions 241 yards 1 td
Weeks 5, 7, 9, 10: 23 receptions 447 yards 3 td
Let that sink in. The last 4 games not against Denver, he has been on a pace for 92/1788/12. He obviously won't come close to those numbers, but that's what he's done vs the raiders, falcons, titans and dolphins. He faces the bucs, panthers, raiders and browns weeks 13 to 16.
mnmplayer
Footballguy
thehornet
Footballguy
Very talented still raw. When he runs better routes I am not sure sure Keenan is that far ahead of him. Given Keenan's inability to stay healthy, this kid could easily be there number 1 or the future. Keenan I think will be in a contract year. They may let him walk if Tyrell truly steps up. Keenan dating back to 2012- sprained ankle, broken collarbone, kidney injury, pcl sprain, acl tear. 3 season enders.
Keenan just signed a 4 year contract extension this offseason, as long as rivers is the QB I can see both of them putting up good numbers in the future playing together, the main thing would be neither guy will have the ceiling they did when they were the main guy
mnmplayer
Footballguy
Keenan/Tyrell >>>>>>> Tyrell/Inman. Keenan Allen is one of the most polished route runners in the league. No way they let him walk. Tyrell is not a great of even good route runner. Right now he is almost a one or two trick pony. He lived off that 4-5 yard crossing route for about 6 games this year and only started doing more, and making horrible mistakes in the process. He is a good compliment to the reliability of Allen. Allen can run any route effectively and with Tyrell as option #2 I think he will be the perfect compliment as his 5 yard crossing route is a killer and he can go deep, but when you need a first down or around the goal line, he's not there yet. That is Allen's bread and butter.
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Tau837
Footballguy
Allen is going nowhere, he signed a 4 year $45M extension in the offseason. Benjamin is also going nowhere, as he was signed to a 4 year $24M contract in the offseason.
I expect Stevie Johnson to be released. Inman will be a free agent; I think the Chargers will try to bring him back if his contract expectations are reasonable (i.e., cheap). Regardless, if he is back, Inman will be the #4.
As I have posted before, IMO Williams is looking at ~100 targets per year if he and the other targets stay relatively healthy.
I expect Stevie Johnson to be released. Inman will be a free agent; I think the Chargers will try to bring him back if his contract expectations are reasonable (i.e., cheap). Regardless, if he is back, Inman will be the #4.
As I have posted before, IMO Williams is looking at ~100 targets per year if he and the other targets stay relatively healthy.
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thehornet
Footballguy
Good stuff. Appreciate the insight. Cant argue with any of it. Tyrell has a lot of room to grow. I would say that there are also things that Tyrell can do that Keenan cannot. Keenan doesnt stretch the field the same way. Tyrell is also a bigger body and faster. He will prob also be a better redzone threat if he continues to develop. He might be already.
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Milkman
Footballguy
Tyrell's ceiling is higher. He needs to work on some things like running routes and making the correct adjustments at the LOS but he absolutely could be better than Allen over the next 4-5 years. Totally in his range of possible outcomes.
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thehornet
Footballguy
Thanks. Not up to date on chargers contracts. I read on a site he was coming up on FA but it must have been a prior year.
Tau837
Footballguy
Allen's performance in 2015-16 projects to 146/1576/8 over 16 games. The big question for Allen is whether or not he can stay healthy.
Is a ceiling higher than 146/1576/8 within the range of possible outcomes for Williams? Well, sure, but the odds of him ever performing at that level seem low.
Tau837
Footballguy
Next year will be Williams' third season in the league. He made a massive improvement between seasons 1 and 2, not sure why anyone would be concerned about his play regressing. I could see concern about his opportunity regressing, though it is worth pointing out that he is only on pace for 114 targets this season, despite the absence of Allen, Stevie, and Woodhead.
Milkman
Footballguy
I got 134-1450-8 as Allen's 2015-16 projected out over a 16 game season. Maybe you're doing something with the game he got hurt that I'm not. Either way that's a pretty uninspiring 10.8 yards per catch. Allen is nowhere near as dynamic a player as Tyrell and Tyrell is nowhere near the route runner Allen is. Which situation can be improved and which situation can not.
If Tyrell learns the nuances of the position, which is not a given but possible, he can in fact be better than Allen. Allen however, will never be as explosive as Tyrell and can never be the vertical threat Tyrell already is.
Basically we have already seen Keenan's ceiling and it's impressive but it relies on a very heavy target rate that is rarely achieved. Basically he'll never hit 188 targets with another receiving threat like Tyrell on the same team. Tyrell however does a significant amount more damage on a per catch basis and doesn't need 188 targets to put up those numbers. Even if he was to regress some on his ypc to 15.5 .......130 targets and a 60%ish catch rate gets him 78-1200+ yards. If Allen drops down to a more sustainable 155 targets and a 65% catch rate he's only at 100-1100.......
All this is well within the range of possible outcomes with both on the team. Now if either gets hurt again then yes the targets could go up.
One more thing to consider here. We're basically comparing Tyrell's rookie year to Allen's 3rd year but they are the same age.
Anyway I can't wait to see how the season plays out and how they work both these guys in next year. Their skill sets are very different.
thehornet
Footballguy
Yeah he wasn't going to catch that many balls. It is an outlier. Hes more a 110 catch guy in a great year. He's never going to get 200 targets.
I think Tyrell is on pace for excellent yardage.
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Could we see a situation like the Jets (prior to Decker's injury) with a 1A and 1B? Or the Broncos if they had a better QB? With Rivers back for another year and a solid running game to keep defenses honest, SD could be a very difficult team to defend next year.
Signed,
A Hopeful Williams Owner
Signed,
A Hopeful Williams Owner
bostonfred
Footballguy
He's on pace for 69/1150/7.
If you take out his two Denver games, where he had 3 and 1 catches respectively, and assume he will remain on that pace, he's on pace for 73/1237/7.
If you assume he progressed from his first 4 games to his next 4, and that he will continue on his more recent pace (23/447/3), he would progress to 79/1390/9.
If you project a whole season of 14 games at his pace from these last 4 non denver games only (23/447/3) and continue to give him the 4 catches for 32 he had against denver, he'd be on pace for 84/1592/10 - better than keenan allen's pace of 1576/8 but not with as many receptions.
Realistically, though, neither allen nor williams will magically hit their pace from their best stretches.
The difference is that Williams did his damage the last 4 weeks on 34 targets - plus 9 against denver - which is a pace for 128 targets. 128 targets is definitely achievable, but a decline to 100 would be about 20%, and 115 about 10%. 1592/10 ain't happening, but with some improvement from year two to year 3, but also a more difficult schedule, he probably caps out as a 1200/8 guy.
Allen, on the other hand, is far more likely to be impacted negatively from his 2015 pace. It's worth pointing out that Allen doesn't even have 16 post-emergence games under his belt. And he probably won't get 146 receptions because he won't need to. They won't want to or need to force feed it to their injury prone stud And coming off another season ender, his per target numbers may slip. He was already averaging under 11 yards a catch before getting hurt, so a decline in targets would have a pretty linear effect on his performance, but a decline in efficiency could be devastating.
All things considered, I think it's much more realistic for williams to maintain his target volume and efficiency alongside a healthy allen, benjamin, inman, henry, and the running backs, than for allen to do the same. He's also a bigger risk to be a one year wonder. Ask Sammie Coates owners about the difference between being a favorite target of a stud qb and what happens when you screw up and other options arise. But Allen could be fully healthy and just be OK.
Tau837
Footballguy
I only brought up Allen because @Milkman claimed that Tyrell's ceiling is higher, and I think that is unlikely, since I think it is unlikely Tyrell will achieve a line like 67/725/4 over an 8 (really 7.5) game stretch (without removing Denver games 
). Allen did that just last year in his last healthy 8 game stretch, and he picked up right where he left off this year until he got hurt... if anything, Allen looked better this year... he was uncoverable before getting hurt.
Obviously, Allen and Tyrell are not comparable as players. They have different strengths, and they should be complementary if they both stay healthy going forward after this season.
As for Tyrell's targets going forward, IMO there is a lot of overreaching happening in the projections being posted. The Chargers' WRs under McCoy have averaged the following season totals: 306 targets, 193 receptions, 2559 receiving yards, 16 receiving TDs. But now people are projecting 130 targets for Tyrell next season? 1200/8, so he will get a full 50% of the typical TD total and nearly 50% of the receiving yards?
Maybe if you are projecting one or more injuries to Allen and Benjamin... and projecting that Gates retires (likely) and Woodhead doesn't return (who knows). That is a lot of things that have to line up for some of these projections to work out.
To be clear, I like Tyrell. I have stated in this thread that I think he is a top 30 dynasty WR right now, but not much higher due to my expectation that his season targets should be projected around 100 or so, barring a lot of circumstances such as described above.
I would feel much better about his prospects if he wasn't still running the wrong routes and/or making the wrong reads 10 games into the season, when he has been getting a lot of reps. Rivers has played with a lot of WRs, but I don't remember him getting on any WR close to as often as he has done with Tyrell. Maybe another offseason fixes that. IMO it is more likely that he is who we are seeing right now, a WR2/WR3 who can fill in reasonably well when needed due to injuries. I'm sure he will get better going forward, but I don't see any reason to expect a major leap forward.
). Allen did that just last year in his last healthy 8 game stretch, and he picked up right where he left off this year until he got hurt... if anything, Allen looked better this year... he was uncoverable before getting hurt.Obviously, Allen and Tyrell are not comparable as players. They have different strengths, and they should be complementary if they both stay healthy going forward after this season.
As for Tyrell's targets going forward, IMO there is a lot of overreaching happening in the projections being posted. The Chargers' WRs under McCoy have averaged the following season totals: 306 targets, 193 receptions, 2559 receiving yards, 16 receiving TDs. But now people are projecting 130 targets for Tyrell next season? 1200/8, so he will get a full 50% of the typical TD total and nearly 50% of the receiving yards?
Maybe if you are projecting one or more injuries to Allen and Benjamin... and projecting that Gates retires (likely) and Woodhead doesn't return (who knows). That is a lot of things that have to line up for some of these projections to work out.
To be clear, I like Tyrell. I have stated in this thread that I think he is a top 30 dynasty WR right now, but not much higher due to my expectation that his season targets should be projected around 100 or so, barring a lot of circumstances such as described above.
I would feel much better about his prospects if he wasn't still running the wrong routes and/or making the wrong reads 10 games into the season, when he has been getting a lot of reps. Rivers has played with a lot of WRs, but I don't remember him getting on any WR close to as often as he has done with Tyrell. Maybe another offseason fixes that. IMO it is more likely that he is who we are seeing right now, a WR2/WR3 who can fill in reasonably well when needed due to injuries. I'm sure he will get better going forward, but I don't see any reason to expect a major leap forward.
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Milkman
Footballguy
So you think its out of the question to think a WR with a 16.7 ypc average has a higher ceiling than a receiver with a 11.8 ypc average?
I agree they will compliment each other well. I guess I just see room for growth with Tyrell. I mean he's a rookie basically. Sheeesh.
I agree they will compliment each other well. I guess I just see room for growth with Tyrell. I mean he's a rookie basically. Sheeesh.
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Tau837
Footballguy
Out of the question that he will ever achieve a season better than Allen's best? No, I already said it is within the range of outcomes. I just believe it is unlikely for the reasons I've outlined. We can agree to disagree if you don't want to address the specific points I made, no big deal.
I mean, how far apart are we really? I think Tyrell is a top 30 WR, and I thought you have posted in this thread that you think he is also around that ranking.
Milkman
Footballguy
No we mostly agree on Tyrell. I have him in the 28-29 range because of the uncertainty of his usage going forward but I do see a path where he could be become the #1 WR on that team even with Keenan there. I'm not a huge fan of Keenan Allen though and maybe that's where our outlooks don't match up. Tyrell is a basically a rookie receiver getting ready to go over 1000 yards and he's run pretty unlucky in the redzone or he might have hit 10 TD's too.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
Weebs210
Footballguy
Definitely nervous but don't have many options this week. Either him or Watkins...at least the targets will be there for Williams.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Guys, I have watched every snap of Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams career. They are not comparable, and it's not even close. When healthy, Allen is an All Pro level WR. Tyrell Williams has great size and speed, but that's about it. His routes aren't crisp and he is often in the wrong place despite being with the team for 2 years. He's great on late drags across the middle because of his size but that's by far his best route. Everything else is a crapshoot.
There is a reason a 6'4, 200 lb WR who can run ends up at Western Oregon and then goes undrafted. He's helping 3 of my fantasy teams to high finishes, but it's all due to volume. With a healthy WR corps next year and Hunter Henry becoming the #2 option in the passing game after Allen, Tyrell moves back to 5th in line in the passing game where he belongs.
There is a reason a 6'4, 200 lb WR who can run ends up at Western Oregon and then goes undrafted. He's helping 3 of my fantasy teams to high finishes, but it's all due to volume. With a healthy WR corps next year and Hunter Henry becoming the #2 option in the passing game after Allen, Tyrell moves back to 5th in line in the passing game where he belongs.
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Ruffrodys05
IBL Representative
I'm starting him....mostly for lack of better options (Gabriel v. ARI, Hill @DEN, Humphries v. SEA, Meredith v. TEN w/ Barkley tossing the rock).....but, coming off a bye and likely the healthiest he's been in a while, I like his chances for a solid stat line and a TD....especially in PPR leagues.
Just my two cents....
Just my two cents....
kittenmittens
Footballguy
5th in line? Behind who exactly? Also Henry being automatic 2nd option is a stretch. Obviously he's not above Allen but I think there is plenty of debate for who will be 2nd in line. Players can change and improve over time...
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johnnyboy8102
Footballguy
I don't have many options over him either. Had Gates in the flex spot but have Ebron's 0 on Thursday I need to take a chance with Williams putting up a big stat line. Like others have said, at least the down field targets are there.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Allen, Henry, Gordon/Woodhead, Benjamin, Williams will be the pecking order.
Nothing would make me happier than for Williams to emerge. And there are definitely flashes; he has physical abilities that you can't teach. But from a trust and route running standpoint, he's still lost. I obviously didn't follow him in HS or college, but I think it's a good bet that those are the reasons he ended up at WO and undrafted as well.
That said, I think he's Ben a great find and I'm extremely excited about his future. He can play oppo Allen for the next 5-7 years. And that's valuable, especially considering what the Chargers gave up for him.
The larger point was to weigh in on the discussion comparing him to Allen, b/c that should not be a discussion. If you are in dynasty and get a bite, sell high.
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az_prof
Footballguy
Tyrell is on pace to have a better year than Allen has ever had, DESPITE not running routes well. What happens if he learns to become a good route runner?
He has the ability to get separation off the line and has good size, speed and hands. Those things cannot be taught as easily as route running.
He has the ability to get separation off the line and has good size, speed and hands. Those things cannot be taught as easily as route running.
Valhalla
Footballguy
The games I've watched, it seems he gets the possession reads and Benjamin gets the deep routes. Early in the year this benefited Benjamin, but it was evident that Tyrell was the guy to have. Then Benjamin got banged up, but even if healthy, I'd rather have Tyrell in PPR anyways.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
I think he will be ahead of Benjamin and don't think Woodhead will be back but it's all conjecture at this point. Good discussion and I appreciate your insights. It will be interesting to see how it plays out,.
Tau837
Footballguy
That is a matter of perspective. As a rookie, Allen had 71/1046/8 on 105 targets in 14 games. If Williams plays all remaining games, he is on pace for 69/1152/6 on 117 targets in 16 games. Which season was better? I'll take Allen's season.
It is a great credit to Williams that he is projecting to have a season that is even close to Allen's rookie season, but there is no need to exaggerate how well he has played. Now, maybe he will finish the season really strong and clearly surpass Allen's rookie season. That would be outstanding. We'll see.
