Hedging your GPPs? DraftKings Only (1 Viewer)

So, just a general discussion on strategy. I am in this boat now (LOOK@ME) and just wondering how others handle this kind of stuff.

I did not fade on one of my GPP lineups this week, and started with a combination of Brady, Gronk, and Brown. This puts me near 100 points with my 3 big hitters on the team.

I have the lineup in three GPPs, Top Prize Payouts are 1X, 10X, and 100X.

Now to really get in the money on any of them, my "role players" or "lottery tickets" need to perform well also. I have been in the situation where I did very well on early games like this and completely tanked out of the money on the late games. I am still a far cry from cashing, but I feel like I have a good start being 4x cost/points so far.

So, I pose this to the board. Would you

A. Keep your lineups as is and let it ride and see what happens?

B. Change one, two, or three of the lineups?

C. Change one lineup to hedge the "bet"? If so, which one do you change?

I think this is an interesting strategy question. I do believe I put in the optimal lineup with the other six players in the lineup, but we know that 2-3 points can really be a difference in dollars. Even switching to three different defenses gives some variance that could be a difference maker in one of the contests. (right now, I have Tampa Bay in that slot) IE, hit on the defense that gets two return TDs

I am curious how others feel about this and how you would handle it.

Love this discussion and it's one my friends and I were having last night as I had a buddy in your exact situation (However I told him to play Lewis or DeAngelo as a min RB and he had Cunningham rostered or else it would have been REALLY interesting).

Anyway, the thought I have is that, depending on Gronk, Brown, and Brady ownership (which I'd assume to be relatively high), I'd be much more likely to play higher ownership guys such as Davante if you didn't already have them in before. Guys like that would simultaneously be hedging while still giving you an upside play. I'm not particularly high on Davante personally but just thought he was the best example. Other guys like Lacy or Miller might make sense at RB too.

That said, if you want a shot at a top 5 finish, you'll still need to have a decent amount of differentiation so you may not want to go that route.

Hope that helps!

I typically like to create some variance in my GPP lineups at least at the defense position. I find that is the least predictable position so going with 2 or 3 different DTs gives me a better chance to hit one with a big week. In the price range your at I like TB the best to but you could mix in Jax or SD to create some variance. The biggest tournament I would stick with my optimal lineup.

I agree with keeping the highest payout level as the optimal lineup. That is definitely my plan, and I am sure I will swap out the defenses. I do like your suggestions at that price.

I should also mention that the buy in was the same for all three so there is considerably more entries as the prize goes up. That being said, I am right about the same place in all three percentage wise.

The ownership varied a little, but they were all over 20% and I get where you are going with variance. I feel good about my lottery tickets, but things happen. I think for sure I will change the lowest one because getting a decent finish there will more than cover the cost of all three plus profit, which is ultimately, the goal.

Caesar, would you mind doing a follow up post with any changes you made and how you finished in each. I instinctively understand building a strong (highest expected points) lineup but building a lineup based on ownership percentages is still just an abstract concept. Real world examples would help me grasp this concept better. TIA!

Hope you cashed out some of those contests.

Orignial Lineup

Brady

Martin

Blue

Agholor

A Brown

VJax

Stevie

Gronk

Bucs

This lineup was kept as is, and I finished out of the money. None of the lower priced players did much of anything except Stevie, and he wasn't enough to overcome. Tampa crapped out, as usual.

I made two changes, Gio in place of Martin and Eagles in place of the Bucs. I still finished out of the money. My studs produced as they should, and the role players forgot how to play their role.

I learned something, and I ended up + for the week, but it could have been a lot better if I had given more thought.

to expand on the idea that I could have given more thought, I was really high on Agholor this week, and looking at the plethora of mid-level WRs on the PHI offense, I should not have relied on a rookie to make a big impact week one. I bought into the pre-season hype.

Given more thought, Lebeau against rookie QBs is like, 749,000-1 over his 800 years in the league, so that should have clued me in that a Tampa WR might not be best, and to double that up with Martin in one league was clearly stupid on my part.

Blue had a chance to do something, and he failed miserably, as many predicted.

So, what I learned was that maybe I had one too many high priced players, and should have distributed the money out a little more. The only real "sure thing" lottery ticket in the whole group was Stevie, but it just wasn't enough.

Overall for the week, I ended up about +10%, so it wasn't a total loss. If I can do that all year, and maybe get a big hit once, I will consider the season a huge success for me.

Great thread.

I'm not as familiar with DK pricing, but really didn't you just pick the wrong hedge players? For example, would Ivory or Sproles fit in place of Gio? Was there another defense between the Bucs and Eagles that you would have hit big? Obviously missing on Agoholr Blue and VJax did you zero favors and in the end you probably still don't cash, but that's besides the point.

Bobcat10 said:

Great thread.

I'm not as familiar with DK pricing, but really didn't you just pick the wrong hedge players? For example, would Ivory or Sproles fit in place of Gio? Was there another defense between the Bucs and Eagles that you would have hit big? Obviously missing on Agoholr Blue and VJax did you zero favors and in the end you probably still don't cash, but that's besides the point.

Click to expand...

yeah. these are good points, and Gio didn't score too bad, but Ivory or Sproles or Abdullah would have been the better play around the same price.

To cash in a GPP, you have to have almost everyone contribute. To win a big GPP. you have to have everyone contribute, so when I was looking to hedge, I was thinking about what I expected to be solid players who will get touches, as opposed to guys that would break out. I expected VJax to have a lot of targets as the #1 with Evans out, I figured Blue as the starter was going to get his 20 carries since I HOU would want to control the game. A couple early Chief scores took that gameplan away. Agholor was my truest "lottery" ticket, and I should have scrutinized that play better.

Of course, its easy to look back and say what I should have done. Overall, I am satisfied with my week, but I now know if I am put in that situation again, I will take a little more time to hedge. I also believe I will hedge EVERY lineup next time instead of just changing one, and I will change more than just one player and a D. Variety may reduce optimal lineup, but it gives me a greater chance to hit the big money. Like I said before, I just need one top 10 finish this year in a big GPP, and I will feel pretty good. I have gotten one in each of the last two years, and both times, I cashed it out and walked away. This year, I want to play with some house money.