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College Football Week 3- Q&A (1 Viewer)

Devin Knotts

Footballguy
Hey Guys-

I am going to be starting a weekly College Football forum to discuss games, answer questions, help you build your lineup, where you can get excited when our picks are great, or try to understand our methodology for when our picks miss as college football has a significant amount of variance.

Now that we are in week 3 and a lot of the early bugs are worked out we want to be more engaged with the community, so we're going to have these Q&A and gameday discussions on a weekly basis assuming they go well.

In case you haven't checked out some of our college football content, we have been posting it under the Draftkings web page and the Fanduel web page links on the home page.

So I'll start it off:

Some injury situations you're going to want to watch out for tomorrow are:

Vernon Adams- QB Oregon. This is probably the biggest one to watch out for, all signs are pointing to Jeff Lockie to play this week, and he becomes an excellent value play at this price point.

Daniel Lasco- RB Cal. This one is much less clear, as it looks like a true 50/50 gametime decision. Vic Enwere is likely the running back who will see the bulk of the carries if he is out. He becomes a nice punt play, but not much more than that.

If there's any feedback on our content please let us know as we're looking to improve on a weekly basis.

 
What is your process for building a college lineup? It seems like QB and RB would be the starting points based on usage and WR and TE seem like even more of a crapshoot in CFB than NFL. Is this the case? Does it get easier as conference schedule rolls around? I have been dabbling a little bit for the first time this year and it seems a lot like baseball in the fact that if you don't follow it very closely it is very hard to put together a winning lineup even in cash games.

 
What is your process for building a college lineup? It seems like QB and RB would be the starting points based on usage and WR and TE seem like even more of a crapshoot in CFB than NFL. Is this the case? Does it get easier as conference schedule rolls around? I have been dabbling a little bit for the first time this year and it seems a lot like baseball in the fact that if you don't follow it very closely it is very hard to put together a winning lineup even in cash games.
It definitely gets easier once conference schedule rolls around, as players roles become more established. This early in the season roles are still being defined as the coaches only get 6 weeks of practices before games start and there is no preseason.

If you're playing on FanDuel 90% of the time the first player I put in my lineup is the tight end, the reason being is that there are only a few good tight ends in college football, so getting a safe amount of points is something that I'm after.

Then where I go is I will typically identify the quarterbacks that I would be ok with starting,as that gives me an idea of what I'm able to spend at other positions. I then look at the value plays of the week in the projections such as this week Gehrig Dieter is a great value play on DraftKings.

Next I will look at the running backs, and finally look at the wide receivers as there are always a few cheap wide receivers that you can save money on. Really though, throughout each step I am going back and making adjustments, so for example if I get tot he wide receiver and there is no one that I really like, I will go back to the running back position and the quarterback position to re-evaluate to see if there are guys I can find for cheaper.

Hope this helps realize it is a short answer, I'll try to write an article on my full process.

 
With Lockie looking like hes starting whats your take on his roll today? Is Royce Freeman the obvious beneficiary? And Im still leaning toward the safety of Doughty in that slate for my cash games, but where does he rank, with that price, against Doughty and Williams.

 
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Any word on Bucky Hodges this morning? I can't find anything in the news. The early slate breakdown says he's questionable.

 
With Lockie looking like hes starting whats your take on his roll today? Is Royce Freeman the obvious beneficiary? And Im still leaning toward the safety of Doughty in that slate for my cash games, but where does he rank, with that price, against Doughty and Williams.
What site? I'm going to assume Fanduel as it seems like it's a 1 qb league.

The honest answer is we just don't know. I've watched a few hours on Lockie of high school practices, practice film and really anything I could find on him. He is not nearly as mobile as what we are accustomed to at Oregon, which hurts his value.

The flip side of the coin is that in this blowout game he is going to stay in longer than Vernon Adams would have, as they are going to want to develop Lockie as much as possible.

I am starting him in most of my leagues not because I like him over Doughty, but because what it allows me to do at the running back position. There are some elite elite running backs in this slate, and having the ability to go and get two of them in Jordan Howard and Jahad Thomas.

Here is one of my FanDuel lineups


  • QB
    Jeff Lockie Breaking news
    GAST@ORGN2:00PM
    $6,800

  • RB
    Jordan Howard Recent news
    WKU@INDNA4:00PM
    $8,300

  • RB
    Jahad Thomas Recent news
    TEMPL@MASS3:00PM
    $7,700

  • WR
    Ricky Jones Recent news
    WKU@INDNA4:00PM
    $6,300

  • WR
    Chris Moore
    CIN@MIAOH3:30PM
    $4,500

  • WR
    Sterling Shepard Recent news
    TULSA@OKLA12:00PM
    $7,700

  • TE
    Jake Butt
    UNLV@MICH12:00PM
    $3,400

 
Any word on Bucky Hodges this morning? I can't find anything in the news. The early slate breakdown says he's questionable.
it seems as if he is going to play. He was pulled from the game last week due to injury, but I believe if they were playing someone with a pulse he would have stayed in.

 
Would you feel safe rostering Lockie in your cash games, or do you consider him a GPP only play?
He definitely has some risk, as it is not 100% certain that Lockie is starting, although most signs are pointing in that direction. I could use him in a cash game as long as you are spending up on some of the top running backs on this slate.

 
Ricky Seals-Jones projected to score 18 points and he's sitting at zero. And the DFS community wonders why more people don't play CFB lol

 
So I just found out Seals-Jones has never had 18+ DK points in his career. Any chance we can get more conservative projections going forward? My lineups are always projected to score 200+ and end up not even scoring 150.

 
If theres a way you could add expected % of offensive opportunity it would solve that problem. The problem wasnt that A&M receivers had a bad day, theres just so many mouths to feed the production went to other guys

 
yeah i asked this in the other thread on here and nobody really responded but my fd lineups are always projected for ~140 and have scored well below that. this is over 4 different slates using the chart/projections. my early slate today has started with geronimo allen scoring 50% of his projected pts and johnell barnes 20% (one qtr left to go though). am i misunderstanding how to use the chart and projections or something???

 
No I think the CFB projections/value chart are just that bad. I have a lineup on DK that was projected for 208 and it's at 30 and only 307 PMR. I've never seen DFS projections that are so off. Even NASCAR is more accurate

 

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