bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Surprised he didnt announce his intentions yet
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
WR Laquon Treadwell, SEA (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Maybe he's still recovering from his injury, but he sure doesn't look quite that good to me. I'd have him a step below both Cooper and Watkins. I think both Cooper and Watkins were better route runners and better able to separate, and I think both might have better hands as well. I am very curious how he measures.
That doesn't mean he's not a really good prospect...but WR is so young, deep, and talented now in dynasty that it makes him slightly less appealing.
Xue
Footballguy
He has the ability to win in all parts of the field.
A lot of the narratives on him sound like Allen Robinson, especially the speed part. Let's not forget, Robinson ran a 4.6 at the NFL Combine.
cstu
Footballguy
Gandalf
Footballguy
Faust
MVP
Last edited by a moderator:
Gandalf
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
Look at the history and you'll see you see that taking a 1st round WR over RB is usually the right pick. The times where it wasn't were Tavon Austin, DHB, and Santonio Holmes. Have to go back to 2001 for a RB that should have been picked over a WR.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Yeah, Gurley doesn't count.....
cstu
Footballguy
I think this sums up your WR bias well. You might be right, of course, but - like 9/10 people - I would take Gurley over Cooper, who probably won't even crack the top-10 dynasty ADP this offseason.
Anyway, back to thread topic. I like Laquon a lot and think he would settle as a top-15 WR eventually - maybe even higher if he lives up to his measurables and shows reliable full-tree route running. Surely, the top potential is there. That said, with the glut of WRs posting solid PPR numbers and the explosion of RBBCs, I'd much rather have the RB with the 3-down skillset.
cstu
Footballguy
foxco
Footballguy
I would take Gurley over Cooper in a heartbeat, not because I think Gurley is "better" than Cooper or will have a longer career, but because of the scarcity of stud RBs in the league these days vs. the depth at WR. The RB position has very few guys you can trot out on a weekly basis and feel like you've got an advantage against your opponent - WRs run way deeper and I'd rather have a Gurley/Maclin type matchup than a Gio/Julio. Just my .02, but if I have the #1 pick and there's a blue chip RB, I'll take him over the WR in the current climate.
ZWK
Footballguy
I'm one of the people who is hung up on his lack of production. Top NFL WRs usually put up much better numbers in college than what Treadwell has done. If Treadwell is an elite receiver, then it's weird that he hasn't done that. Chad Kelly isn't a terrible QB, so he doesn't have that excuse. Treadwell is fairly young, which is some excuse, but a lot of other top NFL WRs left school early too and Treadwell's production doesn't match theirs. Maybe he was slowed by recovering from his injury? In which case we're all trying to project what a healthy Treadwell would do, rather than describing what he did on the field this past season (or we're basing our opinions on a few games when he was healthy).
To give one example, Treadwell averaged 8.4 yards per target this year. He also averaged 8.4 yards per target last year. The average across FBS college football, for a player who is his team's top receiver, is about 9.4 YPT.
I made a list of the 33 "best" fantasy WRs who entered the NFL since 2009 (and who played WR at a FBS school), including everyone with 100 career VBD plus guys who seem likely to get there based on what they've done so far plus a couple who probably would have gotten there if not for injuries or off-the-field issues. Here is how many YPT each of them averaged in their best college season:
YPT Player School
14.7 T.Y. Hilton FIU
14.1 Mike Evans Texas A&M
14.0 Demaryius Thomas Ga Tech
12.8 Odell Beckham Jr. LSU
12.7 Martavis Bryant Clemson
12.0 Justin Blackmon Okla St
11.8 Dez Bryant Okla St
11.6 Hakeem Nicks N Carolina
11.6 Kelvin Benjamin FSU
11.5 Alshon Jeffery S Carolina
11.5 Jarvis Landry LSU
11.2 Sammy Watkins Clemson
11.2 Golden Tate Notre Dame
11.2 Allen Hurns Miami (Fl)
11.0 DeAndre Hopkins Clemson
10.8 Amari Cooper Alabama
10.7 Michael Crabtree Texas Tech
10.5 Julio Jones Alabama
10.3 Brandin Cooks Oregon St
10.2 Mike Wallace Miss
10.2 Percy Harvin Florida
10.2 Josh Gordon Baylor
10.2 Doug Baldwin Stanford
10.1 A.J. Green Georgia
10.1 Kenny Britt Rutgers
10.0 Eric Decker Minnesota
9.6 Allen Robinson Penn State
9.4 Jeremy Maclin Missouri
9.4 Emmanuel Sanders SMU
9.4 Jordan Matthews Vanderbilt
9.1 Keenan Allen California
8.4 Antonio Brown C Mich
8.4 Laquon Treadwell Miss
8.4 Randall Cobb Kentucky
And here is a complete list of first round receivers since the 2009 draft who never topped 10.0 YPT in college:
YPT Player School
8.0 Michael Floyd Notre Dame
8.0 Darrius Heyward-Bey Maryland
9.0 A.J. Jenkins Illinois
9.2 Kevin White WVU
9.3 Cordarrelle Patterson Tennessee
9.4 Jeremy Maclin Missouri
9.6 Tavon Austin WVU
I have more stats in this spreadsheet (and discuss them more in this thread). Treadwell isn't always this far down the list in these sorts of comparisons, but he generally is pretty far down the list.
Quez
Footballguy
I think the Bucs have to take a hard look at himnif he is there. Especially if the don't cut & resign / restructure V-Jax. Imagine Evans, Treadwell, and Winston for 3+ years. :drool:
Papa John's
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
Borden
Footballguy
Treadwell is a top level prospect (obviously) but coming out of his breaks he seems to lack burst. The type of player that he is perhaps this won't be an issue but I do think it's a concern. *This is on full display at the end of the Florida game.* He appears to be a high emotion, high effort player and I think at times this can lead to him being a bit to rigid during catches. Basically, he might need to calm down at times and soften his hands during the catch.
This isn't meant to slam Treadwell or say that he isn't a stud, just a couple things I've noticed.
This isn't meant to slam Treadwell or say that he isn't a stud, just a couple things I've noticed.
ZWK
Footballguy
Yep. And Deonte Thompson's career arc so far is similar to Jimmy Smith's.Gandalf said:
It's hard to find things that are 100% predictive of whether a receiver will turn out to be an NFL success. Whether you're looking at a player's college production, his size, his speed, his draft position, or his performance during his first 4 years in the NFL, there are some players who look bad by that indicator but wind up being big NFL successes. Jimmy Smith was cut by 2 teams and had 22 receptions in his first 4 seasons. Anquan Boldin ran a 4.71 forty. Antonio Brown had low YPT in college and was drafted in the 6th round. And there are going to be more guys like them, who don't look good by some metric but wind up being stars.
But there are a lot more guys who don't look good by some metric, and then don't do anything in the NFL. And most guys who wind up becoming stars produced more efficiently than Antonio Brown in college, ran faster than Anquan Boldin at the combine, got drafted earlier than Brown, stuck on one team's roster and actually caught passes during their first 3 NFL seasons, etc. If I'm betting on who is most likely to turn into a star, I'll bet on the guys who have tons of indicators lined up in their favor (at least if we're talking about prime assets, like top 2 dynasty rookie picks, and not just fliers).
Zyphros
Footballguy
There's one thing in particular that just makes me question Treadwell and those are the plays where he looks backwards as if he doesn't know what to do next. Just really sticks out when I've watched him. He looks lost on some plays, or just doesn't seem involved at all. Not quite sure how to take it yet as I do like him, it's just sticking out like a sore thumb in my mind that I can't let go of.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
The posts that ZWK made on him scared me away. Numbers aren't everything but he wasn't good at anything statistically.
massraider
Footballguy
I've been reading that people aren't expecting him to run especially well at the Combine.
I wonder what that would do to his stock. People are mocking him in the top 10 at the moment.
I wonder what that would do to his stock. People are mocking him in the top 10 at the moment.
Gandalf
Footballguy
I think Treadwell is the most important player to get right in this draft. People seem really split on him. If you are sitting at 1.1 or 1.2 or 1.3 and you get a pedestrian WR instead of a WR2 on his way to a WR1 then it is a disaster. I wish I knew who to listen to on this...
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I guess the question is: if not him then who?Gandalf said:
If you're really not sure sell the pick to a believer as there will be some in every league.
robertpedro22
Footballguy
It's really not fair to use Yards Per Target as a comparison tool in my opinion. The system that Ole Miss uses employs a ton of bubble screens to WR's. Of course his YPT will be lower than others, its a product of the system.
Personally I see Treadwell as a Anquon Boldin type. Not the fastest WR on the board, but his physicality more than makes up for it.
Example
Personally I see Treadwell as a Anquon Boldin type. Not the fastest WR on the board, but his physicality more than makes up for it.
Example
Last edited by a moderator:
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Do screens really do serious damage to the YPT stat? There are more short gains on screens but that must be at least somewhat mitigated by there being very few incompletions. If you run 10 bubble screens you may get stuffed for no gain on 3 or 4 of them, but if you run 10 medium out routes you're probably going to have an incompletion on 3 or 4 of them, which works out to the same against YPT.
Borden
Footballguy
For me, Doctson and Elliot go 1 and 2. At 1.03, if both are gone I trade the 3rd pick (if I don't like Treadwell). I think where Treadwell goes in the NFL draft will tell us a lot.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Borden
Footballguy
Yards per Target factor in incompletions, no? So, 10 bubble screen are going to average to 1 yard and 10 ten yard In's are going to average 10 yards (without factoring in yards after catch of course). Incompletions make no difference because it's still a target. Is this not the difference between YPC and YPT?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
He was responding to a poster that said Treadwell's YPT may seem lower because Ole Miss ran a bunch of bubble screens. Bagel said that while the YPC may indeed be lower on screen passes the fact that the catch % would be higher may actually help his YPT (because he'd be gaining yards on all of those catches) while in a deeper passing game his YPC would increase but his catch % would be lower (and thus his YPT would decrease with each incompletion). Now the math may not actually work out (depends on what actually happened), but the theory makes sense.
Borden
Footballguy
Gotcha. Thanks Doc.
I personally don't think it would equal out but I get the idea. If nothing else, it's certainly closer than it might appear at first glance.
robertpedro22
Footballguy
I also can see FreeBaGel's side to the argument and actually thought the same after I posted. I guess at the end of the day, analyzing statistics such as YPT can be a very inexact science. There are just too many variables such as quality of QB, quality of defenses played, availability of other viable WRs on the team, etc.
I am certainly biased since I am an Ole Miss fan, but Treadwell is the best WR to come through Ole Miss in a long time, IMO. Certainly better than Mike Wallace and Dante Moncreif.
I am certainly biased since I am an Ole Miss fan, but Treadwell is the best WR to come through Ole Miss in a long time, IMO. Certainly better than Mike Wallace and Dante Moncreif.
