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Faust

WR Laquon Treadwell, Falcons

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People hung up on his "production" are overthinking it. He's every bit as good as Amari Cooper.

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People hung up on his "production" are overthinking it. He's every bit as good as Amari Cooper.

Maybe he's still recovering from his injury, but he sure doesn't look quite that good to me. I'd have him a step below both Cooper and Watkins. I think both Cooper and Watkins were better route runners and better able to separate, and I think both might have better hands as well. I am very curious how he measures.

That doesn't mean he's not a really good prospect...but WR is so young, deep, and talented now in dynasty that it makes him slightly less appealing.

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The posts in this thread range from similar to Dez Bryant to a tier 2-3 player, a notch below Cooper and Watkins. So what is each side seeing that makes them so sure? People sitting with the 1.1 and 1.2 need to not miss on that pick...

Edited by Gandalf

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People hung up on his "production" are overthinking it. He's every bit as good as Amari Cooper.

Can you expand on what makes you think this?

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People hung up on his "production" are overthinking it. He's every bit as good as Amari Cooper.

Can you expand on what makes you think this?

He has the ability to win in all parts of the field.

A lot of the narratives on him sound like Allen Robinson, especially the speed part. Let's not forget, Robinson ran a 4.6 at the NFL Combine.

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The posts in this thread range from similar to Dez Bryant to a tier 2-3 player, a notch below Cooper and Watkins. So what is each side seeing that makes them so sure? People sitting with the 1.1 and 1.2 need to not miss on that pick...

Don't overthink it - he should go 1.1.

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The posts in this thread range from similar to Dez Bryant to a tier 2-3 player, a notch below Cooper and Watkins. So what is each side seeing that makes them so sure? People sitting with the 1.1 and 1.2 need to not miss on that pick...

Don't overthink it - he should go 1.1.

How did you come to decide he should go 1.1?

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People hung up on his "production" are overthinking it. He's every bit as good as Amari Cooper.

Can you expand on what makes you think this?
He has the ability to win in all parts of the field.

A lot of the narratives on him sound like Allen Robinson, especially the speed part. Let's not forget, Robinson ran a 4.6 at the NFL Combine.

Interesting.

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Early look at the NFL draft

Excerpt:

Mississippi junior Laquon Treadwell (6-2, 210) appears to be the best of what projects as an average corps of wide receivers.

"I don't think there's a receiver this year that is that (top-15 pick)," said one scout. "Not a great group. It's a similar situation to last year. I don't believe there's that dynamic speed guy like a Phillip Dorsett, which got him in the first round last year."

Treadwell bounced back from a horrific leg injury early in the 2014 season to catch 76 passes for 1,082 yards (14.2) and eight touchdowns.

"DeVante Parker last year was a very similar player," said one scout. "Good route runner. Good body control. Good feel for the game. Real strong hands. But I don't think he'll run real well at all."

Edited by Faust

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Early look at the NFL draft

Excerpt:

Mississippi junior Laquon Treadwell (6-2, 210) appears to be the best of what projects as an average corps of wide receivers.

"I don't think there's a receiver this year that is that (top-15 pick)," said one scout. "Not a great group. It's a similar situation to last year. I don't believe there's that dynamic speed guy like a Phillip Dorsett, which got him in the first round last year."

Treadwell bounced back from a horrific leg injury early in the 2014 season to catch 76 passes for 1,082 yards (14.2) and eight touchdowns.

"DeVante Parker last year was a very similar player," said one scout. "Good route runner. Good body control. Good feel for the game. Real strong hands. But I don't think he'll run real well at all."

I haven't seen much of him yet, but Parker seems like a horrible comp.

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The posts in this thread range from similar to Dez Bryant to a tier 2-3 player, a notch below Cooper and Watkins. So what is each side seeing that makes them so sure? People sitting with the 1.1 and 1.2 need to not miss on that pick...

Don't overthink it - he should go 1.1.

Most people from the dynasty rookie draft threads disagree with that

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The posts in this thread range from similar to Dez Bryant to a tier 2-3 player, a notch below Cooper and Watkins. So what is each side seeing that makes them so sure? People sitting with the 1.1 and 1.2 need to not miss on that pick...

Don't overthink it - he should go 1.1.

Most people from the dynasty rookie draft threads disagree with that

Look at the history and you'll see you see that taking a 1st round WR over RB is usually the right pick. The times where it wasn't were Tavon Austin, DHB, and Santonio Holmes. Have to go back to 2001 for a RB that should have been picked over a WR.

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The posts in this thread range from similar to Dez Bryant to a tier 2-3 player, a notch below Cooper and Watkins. So what is each side seeing that makes them so sure? People sitting with the 1.1 and 1.2 need to not miss on that pick...

Don't overthink it - he should go 1.1.

Most people from the dynasty rookie draft threads disagree with that

Look at the history and you'll see you see that taking a 1st round WR over RB is usually the right pick. The times where it wasn't were Tavon Austin, DHB, and Santonio Holmes. Have to go back to 2001 for a RB that should have been picked over a WR.

Yeah, Gurley doesn't count.....

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The posts in this thread range from similar to Dez Bryant to a tier 2-3 player, a notch below Cooper and Watkins. So what is each side seeing that makes them so sure? People sitting with the 1.1 and 1.2 need to not miss on that pick...

Don't overthink it - he should go 1.1.

Most people from the dynasty rookie draft threads disagree with that

Look at the history and you'll see you see that taking a 1st round WR over RB is usually the right pick. The times where it wasn't were Tavon Austin, DHB, and Santonio Holmes. Have to go back to 2001 for a RB that should have been picked over a WR.

Yeah, Gurley doesn't count.....

Would rather have Cooper.

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The posts in this thread range from similar to Dez Bryant to a tier 2-3 player, a notch below Cooper and Watkins. So what is each side seeing that makes them so sure? People sitting with the 1.1 and 1.2 need to not miss on that pick...

Don't overthink it - he should go 1.1.

Most people from the dynasty rookie draft threads disagree with that

Look at the history and you'll see you see that taking a 1st round WR over RB is usually the right pick. The times where it wasn't were Tavon Austin, DHB, and Santonio Holmes. Have to go back to 2001 for a RB that should have been picked over a WR.

Yeah, Gurley doesn't count.....

Would rather have Cooper.

I think this sums up your WR bias well. You might be right, of course, but - like 9/10 people - I would take Gurley over Cooper, who probably won't even crack the top-10 dynasty ADP this offseason.

Anyway, back to thread topic. I like Laquon a lot and think he would settle as a top-15 WR eventually - maybe even higher if he lives up to his measurables and shows reliable full-tree route running. Surely, the top potential is there. That said, with the glut of WRs posting solid PPR numbers and the explosion of RBBCs, I'd much rather have the RB with the 3-down skillset.

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Would rather have Cooper.

I think this sums up your WR bias well. You might be right, of course, but - like 9/10 people - I would take Gurley over Cooper, who probably won't even crack the top-10 dynasty ADP this offseason.

Anyway, back to thread topic. I like Laquon a lot and think he would settle as a top-15 WR eventually - maybe even higher if he lives up to his measurables and shows reliable full-tree route running. Surely, the top potential is there. That said, with the glut of WRs posting solid PPR numbers and the explosion of RBBCs, I'd much rather have the RB with the 3-down skillset.

6 out of 7 people at DLF agree with me.

http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/rankings/dynasty-100/

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Good point. DLF is well-known for its WR bias, but nonetheless this clearly demonstrates enough people would take Cooper over Gurley.

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Good point. DLF is well-known for its WR bias, but nonetheless this clearly demonstrates enough people would take Cooper over Gurley.

I would take Gurley over Cooper in a heartbeat, not because I think Gurley is "better" than Cooper or will have a longer career, but because of the scarcity of stud RBs in the league these days vs. the depth at WR. The RB position has very few guys you can trot out on a weekly basis and feel like you've got an advantage against your opponent - WRs run way deeper and I'd rather have a Gurley/Maclin type matchup than a Gio/Julio. Just my .02, but if I have the #1 pick and there's a blue chip RB, I'll take him over the WR in the current climate.

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People hung up on his "production" are overthinking it. He's every bit as good as Amari Cooper.

I'm one of the people who is hung up on his lack of production. Top NFL WRs usually put up much better numbers in college than what Treadwell has done. If Treadwell is an elite receiver, then it's weird that he hasn't done that. Chad Kelly isn't a terrible QB, so he doesn't have that excuse. Treadwell is fairly young, which is some excuse, but a lot of other top NFL WRs left school early too and Treadwell's production doesn't match theirs. Maybe he was slowed by recovering from his injury? In which case we're all trying to project what a healthy Treadwell would do, rather than describing what he did on the field this past season (or we're basing our opinions on a few games when he was healthy).

To give one example, Treadwell averaged 8.4 yards per target this year. He also averaged 8.4 yards per target last year. The average across FBS college football, for a player who is his team's top receiver, is about 9.4 YPT.

I made a list of the 33 "best" fantasy WRs who entered the NFL since 2009 (and who played WR at a FBS school), including everyone with 100 career VBD plus guys who seem likely to get there based on what they've done so far plus a couple who probably would have gotten there if not for injuries or off-the-field issues. Here is how many YPT each of them averaged in their best college season:

YPT Player School

14.7 T.Y. Hilton FIU

14.1 Mike Evans Texas A&M

14.0 Demaryius Thomas Ga Tech

12.8 Odell Beckham Jr. LSU

12.7 Martavis Bryant Clemson

12.0 Justin Blackmon Okla St

11.8 Dez Bryant Okla St

11.6 Hakeem Nicks N Carolina

11.6 Kelvin Benjamin FSU

11.5 Alshon Jeffery S Carolina

11.5 Jarvis Landry LSU

11.2 Sammy Watkins Clemson

11.2 Golden Tate Notre Dame

11.2 Allen Hurns Miami (Fl)

11.0 DeAndre Hopkins Clemson

10.8 Amari Cooper Alabama

10.7 Michael Crabtree Texas Tech

10.5 Julio Jones Alabama

10.3 Brandin Cooks Oregon St

10.2 Mike Wallace Miss

10.2 Percy Harvin Florida

10.2 Josh Gordon Baylor

10.2 Doug Baldwin Stanford

10.1 A.J. Green Georgia

10.1 Kenny Britt Rutgers

10.0 Eric Decker Minnesota

9.6 Allen Robinson Penn State

9.4 Jeremy Maclin Missouri

9.4 Emmanuel Sanders SMU

9.4 Jordan Matthews Vanderbilt

9.1 Keenan Allen California

8.4 Antonio Brown C Mich

8.4 Laquon Treadwell Miss

8.4 Randall Cobb Kentucky

And here is a complete list of first round receivers since the 2009 draft who never topped 10.0 YPT in college:

YPT Player School

8.0 Michael Floyd Notre Dame

8.0 Darrius Heyward-Bey Maryland

9.0 A.J. Jenkins Illinois

9.2 Kevin White WVU

9.3 Cordarrelle Patterson Tennessee

9.4 Jeremy Maclin Missouri

9.6 Tavon Austin WVU

I have more stats in this spreadsheet (and discuss them more in this thread). Treadwell isn't always this far down the list in these sorts of comparisons, but he generally is pretty far down the list.

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People hung up on his "production" are overthinking it. He's every bit as good as Amari Cooper.

I'm one of the people who is hung up on his lack of production. Top NFL WRs usually put up much better numbers in college than what Treadwell has done. If Treadwell is an elite receiver, then it's weird that he hasn't done that. Chad Kelly isn't a terrible QB, so he doesn't have that excuse. Treadwell is fairly young, which is some excuse, but a lot of other top NFL WRs left school early too and Treadwell's production doesn't match theirs. Maybe he was slowed by recovering from his injury? In which case we're all trying to project what a healthy Treadwell would do, rather than describing what he did on the field this past season (or we're basing our opinions on a few games when he was healthy).

To give one example, Treadwell averaged 8.4 yards per target this year. He also averaged 8.4 yards per target last year. The average across FBS college football, for a player who is his team's top receiver, is about 9.4 YPT.

I made a list of the 33 "best" fantasy WRs who entered the NFL since 2009 (and who played WR at a FBS school), including everyone with 100 career VBD plus guys who seem likely to get there based on what they've done so far plus a couple who probably would have gotten there if not for injuries or off-the-field issues. Here is how many YPT each of them averaged in their best college season:

YPT Player School

14.7 T.Y. Hilton FIU

14.1 Mike Evans Texas A&M

14.0 Demaryius Thomas Ga Tech

12.8 Odell Beckham Jr. LSU

12.7 Martavis Bryant Clemson

12.0 Justin Blackmon Okla St

11.8 Dez Bryant Okla St

11.6 Hakeem Nicks N Carolina

11.6 Kelvin Benjamin FSU

11.5 Alshon Jeffery S Carolina

11.5 Jarvis Landry LSU

11.2 Sammy Watkins Clemson

11.2 Golden Tate Notre Dame

11.2 Allen Hurns Miami (Fl)

11.0 DeAndre Hopkins Clemson

10.8 Amari Cooper Alabama

10.7 Michael Crabtree Texas Tech

10.5 Julio Jones Alabama

10.3 Brandin Cooks Oregon St

10.2 Mike Wallace Miss

10.2 Percy Harvin Florida

10.2 Josh Gordon Baylor

10.2 Doug Baldwin Stanford

10.1 A.J. Green Georgia

10.1 Kenny Britt Rutgers

10.0 Eric Decker Minnesota

9.6 Allen Robinson Penn State

9.4 Jeremy Maclin Missouri

9.4 Emmanuel Sanders SMU

9.4 Jordan Matthews Vanderbilt

9.1 Keenan Allen California

8.4 Antonio Brown C Mich8.4 Laquon Treadwell Miss

8.4 Randall Cobb Kentucky

And here is a complete list of first round receivers since the 2009 draft who never topped 10.0 YPT in college:

YPT Player School

8.0 Michael Floyd Notre Dame

8.0 Darrius Heyward-Bey Maryland

9.0 A.J. Jenkins Illinois

9.2 Kevin White WVU

9.3 Cordarrelle Patterson Tennessee

9.4 Jeremy Maclin Missouri

9.6 Tavon Austin WVU

I have more stats in this spreadsheet (and discuss them more in this thread). Treadwell isn't always this far down the list in these sorts of comparisons, but he generally is pretty far down the list.

So the numbers put Treadwell in the same range as Antonio Brown and Randall Cobb? Maybe this is not the most reliable indicator of success in the NFL for a WR?

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He reminds me of a young Keyshawn

I think the Bucs have to take a hard look at himnif he is there. Especially if the don't cut & resign / restructure V-Jax. Imagine Evans, Treadwell, and Winston for 3+ years. :drool:

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He reminds me of a young Keyshawn

I think the Bucs have to take a hard look at himnif he is there. Especially if the don't cut & resign / restructure V-Jax. Imagine Evans, Treadwell, and Winston for 3+ years. :drool:

I still like Kenny Bell, a/k/a Afro Thunder, there in TBB too.

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He reminds me of a young Keyshawn

I think the Bucs have to take a hard look at himnif he is there. Especially if the don't cut & resign / restructure V-Jax. Imagine Evans, Treadwell, and Winston for 3+ years. :drool:

I really think they will. Very enticing. With Doug and sims and ASJ (if he ever plays) :shock:

Edited by Capella

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Treadwell is a top level prospect (obviously) but coming out of his breaks he seems to lack burst. The type of player that he is perhaps this won't be an issue but I do think it's a concern. *This is on full display at the end of the Florida game.* He appears to be a high emotion, high effort player and I think at times this can lead to him being a bit to rigid during catches. Basically, he might need to calm down at times and soften his hands during the catch.

This isn't meant to slam Treadwell or say that he isn't a stud, just a couple things I've noticed.

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People hung up on his "production" are overthinking it. He's every bit as good as Amari Cooper.

I'm one of the people who is hung up on his lack of production. Top NFL WRs usually put up much better numbers in college than what Treadwell has done. If Treadwell is an elite receiver, then it's weird that he hasn't done that. Chad Kelly isn't a terrible QB, so he doesn't have that excuse. Treadwell is fairly young, which is some excuse, but a lot of other top NFL WRs left school early too and Treadwell's production doesn't match theirs. Maybe he was slowed by recovering from his injury? In which case we're all trying to project what a healthy Treadwell would do, rather than describing what he did on the field this past season (or we're basing our opinions on a few games when he was healthy).

To give one example, Treadwell averaged 8.4 yards per target this year. He also averaged 8.4 yards per target last year. The average across FBS college football, for a player who is his team's top receiver, is about 9.4 YPT.

I made a list of the 33 "best" fantasy WRs who entered the NFL since 2009 (and who played WR at a FBS school), including everyone with 100 career VBD plus guys who seem likely to get there based on what they've done so far plus a couple who probably would have gotten there if not for injuries or off-the-field issues. Here is how many YPT each of them averaged in their best college season:

YPT Player School

14.7 T.Y. Hilton FIU

14.1 Mike Evans Texas A&M

14.0 Demaryius Thomas Ga Tech

12.8 Odell Beckham Jr. LSU

12.7 Martavis Bryant Clemson

12.0 Justin Blackmon Okla St

11.8 Dez Bryant Okla St

11.6 Hakeem Nicks N Carolina

11.6 Kelvin Benjamin FSU

11.5 Alshon Jeffery S Carolina

11.5 Jarvis Landry LSU

11.2 Sammy Watkins Clemson

11.2 Golden Tate Notre Dame

11.2 Allen Hurns Miami (Fl)

11.0 DeAndre Hopkins Clemson

10.8 Amari Cooper Alabama

10.7 Michael Crabtree Texas Tech

10.5 Julio Jones Alabama

10.3 Brandin Cooks Oregon St

10.2 Mike Wallace Miss

10.2 Percy Harvin Florida

10.2 Josh Gordon Baylor

10.2 Doug Baldwin Stanford

10.1 A.J. Green Georgia

10.1 Kenny Britt Rutgers

10.0 Eric Decker Minnesota

9.6 Allen Robinson Penn State

9.4 Jeremy Maclin Missouri

9.4 Emmanuel Sanders SMU

9.4 Jordan Matthews Vanderbilt

9.1 Keenan Allen California

8.4 Antonio Brown C Mich8.4 Laquon Treadwell Miss

8.4 Randall Cobb Kentucky

And here is a complete list of first round receivers since the 2009 draft who never topped 10.0 YPT in college:

YPT Player School

8.0 Michael Floyd Notre Dame

8.0 Darrius Heyward-Bey Maryland

9.0 A.J. Jenkins Illinois

9.2 Kevin White WVU

9.3 Cordarrelle Patterson Tennessee

9.4 Jeremy Maclin Missouri

9.6 Tavon Austin WVU

I have more stats in this spreadsheet (and discuss them more in this thread). Treadwell isn't always this far down the list in these sorts of comparisons, but he generally is pretty far down the list.

So the numbers put Treadwell in the same range as Antonio Brown and Randall Cobb? Maybe this is not the most reliable indicator of success in the NFL for a WR?

Yep. And Deonte Thompson's career arc so far is similar to Jimmy Smith's.

It's hard to find things that are 100% predictive of whether a receiver will turn out to be an NFL success. Whether you're looking at a player's college production, his size, his speed, his draft position, or his performance during his first 4 years in the NFL, there are some players who look bad by that indicator but wind up being big NFL successes. Jimmy Smith was cut by 2 teams and had 22 receptions in his first 4 seasons. Anquan Boldin ran a 4.71 forty. Antonio Brown had low YPT in college and was drafted in the 6th round. And there are going to be more guys like them, who don't look good by some metric but wind up being stars.

But there are a lot more guys who don't look good by some metric, and then don't do anything in the NFL. And most guys who wind up becoming stars produced more efficiently than Antonio Brown in college, ran faster than Anquan Boldin at the combine, got drafted earlier than Brown, stuck on one team's roster and actually caught passes during their first 3 NFL seasons, etc. If I'm betting on who is most likely to turn into a star, I'll bet on the guys who have tons of indicators lined up in their favor (at least if we're talking about prime assets, like top 2 dynasty rookie picks, and not just fliers).

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There's one thing in particular that just makes me question Treadwell and those are the plays where he looks backwards as if he doesn't know what to do next. Just really sticks out when I've watched him. He looks lost on some plays, or just doesn't seem involved at all. Not quite sure how to take it yet as I do like him, it's just sticking out like a sore thumb in my mind that I can't let go of.

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The posts that ZWK made on him scared me away. Numbers aren't everything but he wasn't good at anything statistically.

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I've been reading that people aren't expecting him to run especially well at the Combine.

I wonder what that would do to his stock. People are mocking him in the top 10 at the moment.

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Rotoworld:

Laquon Treadwell - WR - Rebels

NFL Media analysts Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks say the San Diego Chargers and Los Angeles Rams provide ideal situations for Mississippi WR Laquon Treadwell to fill into.

"Give Philip Rivers a true No. 1," Jeremiah said. "He hasn't had that there in quite some time. They need some more weapons for him there to get that offense rolling again." Brooks, on the other hands, sees a potential splash pick for the Rams in their first year in Los Angeles. "I believe the L.A. Rams would be a nice fit for him. ... Tavon Austin can do some things in the slot," he said. "You have other playmakers like Kenny Britt who can stretch the field. Laquon Treadwell can be the anchor of that passing game. He can play the 'X' (receiver), you can build it around him and allow him to be the focal point of that passing game."

Source: NFL.com

Feb 11 - 1:14 PM

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NFL Media draft analyst Lance Zierlein compares Ole Miss WR Laquon Treadwell to DeAndre Hopkins.

 

"Hopkins is the more sudden of the two players from an athletic standpoint, but both receivers are exceptionally competitive when the ball is in the air and both players have very strong hands," Zierlein wrote. "Another similarity is that Hopkins could win vertically without great speed, and Treadwell is not expected to blaze the 40-yard dash at the combine." On that note, TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline reported recently that Treadwell's inner circle is hoping for a forty in the 4.5s at the combine.
 
 
Source: NFL.com 
Feb 15 - 6:32 PM

 

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In a Twitter exchange regarding the 40-time of Ole Miss WR Laquon Treadwell, CBS Sports draft analyst Dane Brugler wrote, "Don't need to be a 4.4 athlete to thrive at the WR position."

 

Brugler went on to point out that all-world Texans wideout DeAndre Hopkins recorded a 4.57 40-time at the NFL Scouting Combine before he was drafted in the first round of the 2013 draft. TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline has noted that the 6-foot-2, 229-pounder's crew is crossing their fingers for a time similarly within the 4.50 range. While some teams might be scared off by the "slow" speed, Rotoworld draft analyst Josh Norris pegged him to the 49er's at No. 7 in his most recent mock, writing that "much of the criticism around him is nitpicking."
 
 
Feb 15 - 11:54 PM

 

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Rotoworld:

Quote

NFL.com's Matt Harmon believes that Ole Miss WR Laqoun Treadwell is "the No. 1 wide receiver in this year’s draft class and [in Harmon's eyes], there is no real debate to have on the subject."

 

Wrote Harmon, "We know that Treadwell is a maven in the contested catch game, often earning him the Alshon Jeffery comparison. Despite Jeffery’s status as one of the best receivers in the league today, that comparison doesn't do Treadwell justice." The analyst keyed in on the 6-foot-2, 229-pounder's Success Rate Vs Coverage, which worked out to 74.6% for the 2015 campaign. As Harmon notes, that's comparable with NFL greats Allen Robinson and Dez Bryant. Granted, college defenses are a step down from those in the NFL, but his mark in the category is noteworthy nonetheless. "Treadwell has no major holes in his game," Harmon concluded.
 
 
Feb 15 - 10:33 PM

 

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14 hours ago, Faust said:

I think Treadwell is the most important player to get right in this draft. People seem really split on him. If you are sitting at 1.1 or 1.2 or 1.3 and you get a pedestrian WR instead of a WR2 on his way to a WR1 then it is a disaster.  I wish I knew who to listen to on this...

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1 hour ago, Gandalf said:

I think Treadwell is the most important player to get right in this draft. People seem really split on him. If you are sitting at 1.1 or 1.2 or 1.3 and you get a pedestrian WR instead of a WR2 on his way to a WR1 then it is a disaster.  I wish I knew who to listen to on this...

I guess the question is: if not him then who?

If you're really not sure sell the pick to a believer as there will be some in every league.

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It's really not fair to use Yards Per Target as a comparison tool in my opinion.  The system that Ole Miss uses employs a ton of bubble screens to WR's.   Of course his YPT will be lower than others, its a product of the system.

Personally I see Treadwell as a Anquon Boldin type.  Not the fastest WR on the board, but his physicality more than makes up for it.

 

Example

Edited by robertpedro22

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15 minutes ago, robertpedro22 said:

It's really not fair to use Yards Per Target as a comparison tool in my opinion.  The system that Ole Miss uses employs a ton of bubble screens to WR's.   Of course his YPT will be lower than others, its a product of the system.

Personally I see Treadwell as a Anquon Boldin type.  Not the fastest WR on the board, but his physicality more than makes up for it.

 

Example

Do screens really do serious damage to the YPT stat?  There are more short gains on screens but that must be at least somewhat mitigated by there being very few incompletions.  If you run 10 bubble screens you may get stuffed for no gain on 3 or 4 of them, but if you run 10 medium out routes you're probably going to have an incompletion on 3 or 4 of them, which works out to the same against YPT.

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5 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

 

I guess the question is: if not him then who?

If you're really not sure sell the pick to a believer as there will be some in every league.

For me, Doctson and Elliot go 1 and 2. At 1.03, if both are gone I trade the 3rd pick (if I don't like Treadwell). I think where Treadwell goes in the NFL draft will tell us a lot.

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25 minutes ago, Borden said:

FreeBaGel, you're thinking of Yards Per Catch not Yards Per Target. 

 

No, I don't think he is and his point is valid.

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Just now, Dr. Octopus said:

 

No, I don't think he is and his point is valid.

Yards per Target factor in incompletions, no? So, 10 bubble screen are going to average to 1 yard and 10 ten yard In's are going to average 10 yards (without factoring in yards after catch of course). Incompletions make no difference because it's still a target. Is this not the difference between YPC and YPT? 

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Just now, Borden said:

Yards per Target factor in incompletions, no? So, 10 bubble screen are going to average to 1 yard and 10 ten yard In's are going to average 10 yards (without factoring in yards after catch of course). Incompletions make no difference because it's still a target. Is this not the difference between YPC and YPT? 

 

He was responding to a poster that said Treadwell's YPT may seem lower because Ole Miss ran a bunch of bubble screens. Bagel said that while the YPC may indeed be lower on screen passes the fact that the catch % would be higher may actually help his YPT (because he'd be gaining yards on all of those catches) while in a deeper passing game his YPC would increase but his catch % would be lower (and thus his YPT would decrease with each incompletion). Now the math may not actually work out (depends on what actually happened), but the theory makes sense.

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

 

He was responding to a poster that said Treadwell's YPT may seem lower because Ole Miss ran a bunch of bubble screens. Bagel said that while the YPC may indeed be lower on screen passes the fact that the catch % would be higher may actually help his YPT (because he'd be gaining yards on all of those catches) while in a deeper passing game his YPC would increase but his catch % would be lower (and thus his YPT would decrease with each incompletion). Now the math may not actually work out (depends on what actually happened), but the theory makes sense.

Gotcha. Thanks Doc.

 

I personally don't think it would equal out but I get the idea. If nothing else, it's certainly closer than it might appear at first glance.

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I also can see FreeBaGel's side to the argument and actually thought the same after I posted.  I guess at the end of the day, analyzing statistics such as YPT can be a very inexact science.  There are just too many variables such as quality of QB, quality of defenses played, availability of other viable WRs on the team, etc.

I am certainly biased since I am an Ole Miss fan, but Treadwell is the best WR to come through Ole Miss in a long time, IMO.  Certainly better than Mike Wallace and Dante Moncreif.  

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