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FanDuel 2015 - Week 4 (1 Viewer)

Joe T

Footballguy
Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total

10/1 8:25 ET Baltimore -2.5 At Pittsburgh 44

10/4 9:30 AM NY Jets -2 Miami (At London) 41
10/4 1:00 ET At Indianapolis -9 Jacksonville 47
10/4 1:00 ET At Atlanta -6.5 Houston 46.5
10/4 1:00 ET Carolina -3 At Tampa Bay 40
10/4 1:00 ET At Buffalo -6 NY Giants 47
10/4 1:00 ET Oakland -3 At Chicago 44
10/4 1:00 ET Philadelphia -3 At Washington 47.5
10/4 1;00 ET At Cincinnati -2.5 Kansas City 43.5
10/4 4:05 ET At San Diego -7.5 Cleveland 45
10/4 4:25 ET Green Bay -9.5 At San Francisco 48
10/4 4:25 ET At Denver -6.5 Minnesota 43
10/4 4:25 ET At Arizona -6.5 St. Louis 42.5
10/4 8:30 ET At New Orleans -4 Dallas 46.5

Monday Night Football Line

10/5 8:30 ET At Seattle -9.5 Detroit 43



Let's start the discussion.

 
QB

Tyrod (has been producing at least 2x and has upside with his rushing and shows he can throw it for solid numbers)

Dalton (playing pretty well)

Newton (nice floor with rushing and had two big games in a row. Should be popular vs TB)

RB

Latavius Murray (top play)

Karlos Williams (close to must play if McCoy does not play)

WR

Fitzgerald

Cooper (two straight 100 yard games and around double digit targets vs. Bears)

Moncrief (has played well recently, though he salvaged his day with that 4th quarter TD. Concerns over usage with other options)

TE

Olsen (probably highly owned after huge game and should be a strong cash play)

Could people comment on this and add extra core cash plays?

 
QB

Tyrod (has been producing at least 2x and has upside with his rushing and shows he can throw it for solid numbers)

Dalton (playing pretty well)

Newton (nice floor with rushing and had two big games in a row. Should be popular vs TB)

RB

Latavius Murray (top play)

Karlos Williams (close to must play if McCoy does not play)

WR

Fitzgerald

Cooper (two straight 100 yard games and around double digit targets vs. Bears)

Moncrief (has played well recently, though he salvaged his day with that 4th quarter TD. Concerns over usage with other options)

TE

Olsen (probably highly owned after huge game and should be a strong cash play)

Could people comment on this and add extra core cash plays?
Agree on Karlos Williams, becomes a loss leader if McCoy can't go which sounds like the case.

Thurs night game screams fade. The defenses aren't what they used to be, but I do not see that game hitting the line.

Bortles might be an interesting GPP option this week

Was thinking on building off a Palmer/Fitz stack, but St Louis D scares me.

 
My first look at TNF was to go after Bell, also possibly Forsett due to the soft matchup, but yes in general its a fade. Still think Bell can be dangerous with Vick and should get 25+ touches. I see no reason to chase Antonio Brown... even if he doesn't take much of a hit with Vick, his ownership percentage will probably drop significantly (meaning he won't hurt much if he puts up a nice game). I tend to think he has more of a 6 for 60 kind of game than his usual.

First shot at TNF: Carr, Bell-Gordon, DT-Cooper-Robinson, Bennet Bryant Broncoes. Have never rolled with Carr before...

I will probably have 3 Thursday lineups, 2 with Bell and 1 with Forsett

 
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Thoughts this week (early):

1) Not likely to touch anything in Thursday's game. Bell of course could see a other-wordly touches, but Baltimore knows that as well.

2) QBs I like (with value in mind) - Bortles, Carr

3) RBS - K. WIlliams, Gordon, possibly Latavius Murray, possibly Forte

4) WR - Julio, Cobb, Demaryius, Hilton, Cooper

5) TE - Reed, Bennet, possibly Clay

6) Denver defense

Early LUs that the software has spit out

A) Bortles, Williams, Murray, Jones, Demaryius, Moncrief, Reed, Vinatieri, Denver

B) Carr, Williams, Freeman, Jones, Hilton, Evans, Reed, Carpenter, Denver

I like the first one a bit more, much more tweeking to do in the database. Last week was easy money, almost any sensible lineup had big performers, especially after narrowing in on AP and LMurray as the obvious RB plays. This week I think the pricing will create the need to take a bit of a risk here or there imo.

 
giants have been decent against the run

might need to pump the breaks on karlos williams

 
Anyone have general strategy tips for the Survivor contest?

I will probably load up on 50 entries for these. Was not sure if I should split them up among my usually lineups (will probably have 5 or so LUs for the main slate), or if they should be super low risk variants (e.g. no stacks, 50/50 type floors). I will probably fairly diversify them among kickers and defenses as well. I think my usual LUs are a bit riskier than necessary, but I'm hesitant to create some new low-risk strategy that could backfire as being too conservative.

Will move this over to the Survivor thread

 
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Looking again, Bell has not actually been that great (for him) against Balt:

2013:

93 yards rushing + 1 for 6 receiving, no scores (10.4 pts)

73 yards rushing 1 TD + 7 for 63 (23 pts)

2014:

59 yards rushing + 5 for 48, no scores (13.2)

20 yards rushing + 5 for 38 1 TD (14.3)

Average of 15 points would not hit value on his $8.9k salary

 
Some early guys I like, bolded are my favored lineup thus far for DK this week.

QB- Taylor v NYG (27th) or Dalton v KC (31st)

RB- Gore v Jax (29th), Peterson v Den (23rd), Dunbar v NO (13th)

WR- Green v KC (32nd), Julio v Hou (7th), Moncrief v Jax(21st), ODB v Buff (30th)

TE- Clay v NYG (30th), Witten v NO (31st)

DST- Eagles v Was (25th)

Numerical values are their rankings against said position.

Wow.. feel stupid. went back and made corrections to the Taylor/Clay opponent. :D

 
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Chicago's offense is a mess and probably shouldn't be trusted but I am really liking Bennett's matchup this week.

Oakland has given up 21 receptions for 297 yards and 5 TDs to tight ends so far this year.

 
Chicago's offense is a mess and probably shouldn't be trusted but I am really liking Bennett's matchup this week.

Oakland has given up 21 receptions for 297 yards and 5 TDs to tight ends so far this year.
I can't agree more I am torn between him or going to Clay for value. Taylor seems to like Clay and they have a favorable matchup this week against Buff.

 
I think I have a pretty solid cash lineup already:

Taylor/Dalton 7600

Latavius 7400

Karlos Williams 6300

Julio 9300

Fitzgerald 7400

James Jones 6000

Olsen 6300

Carpenter 4700

Denver 4700

This uses the 2 top RB plays, probably the top WR plays as Adams is probably out this week. Taylor and Dalton has been producing 2x easily and Olsen is the chalk TE play. Might not tinker with this unless McCoy plays.

 
I think I have a pretty solid cash lineup already:

Taylor/Dalton 7600

Latavius 7400

Karlos Williams 6300

Julio 9300

Fitzgerald 7400

James Jones 6000

Olsen 6300

Carpenter 4700

Denver 4700

This uses the 2 top RB plays, probably the top WR plays as Adams is probably out this week. Taylor and Dalton has been producing 2x easily and Olsen is the chalk TE play. Might not tinker with this unless McCoy plays.
Julio 9400 this week according to the value chart

 
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Anyone know if there is data on the Thursday night games with regards to kickers? I know the games themselves are "rougher" with the short turn around, but Im thinking that might result in higher than usual production from kickers taking advantage of offenses that cant close the deal.

 
I think I have a pretty solid cash lineup already:

Taylor/Dalton 7600

Latavius 7400

Karlos Williams 6300

Julio 9300

Fitzgerald 7400

James Jones 6000

Olsen 6300

Carpenter 4700

Denver 4700

This uses the 2 top RB plays, probably the top WR plays as Adams is probably out this week. Taylor and Dalton has been producing 2x easily and Olsen is the chalk TE play. Might not tinker with this unless McCoy plays.
As has been noted. Giants are solid against the run but suspect against the pass.

 
with Watkins out for week 4 no longer on the Taylor bus

looking at something like this for now

QB Derek Carr 7000

RB Latavius Murray 7500

RB Melvin Gordon 6800

WR Julio Jones 9400

WR Larry Fitzgerald 7400

WR James Jones 6000

TE Greg Olsen 6300

K Matt Bryant 4800

D NY Jets 4700

 
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Taking a step back this week to look at QB. With Brady and Marriota on bye, plus injuries to Brees, Romo, Ben and Cutler, the pool is much smaller than it was 2 or 3 weeks ago. It really narrows down the field:

Top Tier

  • Rodgers and Luck. Both have solid match-ups, Rodgers against 49ers and Luck at home against Jags. Safe, high floor. More incentive to roll with these guys in cash games (and maybe the survivor). Even if Rodgers does his 3 TDs on 150 yards passing that should be plenty for cash, or if Luck throws for 300 yards and 2TD/2INT, same story.
Mid Tier

  • Ryan at home could be solid
  • Cam on the road against TB, I don't see any issues here
  • Wilson at Home on MNF (could take on more w/o Lynch)
  • Peyton has not inspired confidence but should be adequate
  • Palmer has a tough matchup against STL
Value Tier

  • Eli on the road against BUF (no thanks)
  • Dalton at home against KC (we just saw they can be shredded, plus KC on the short week, but this could be a trap game coming off the big win)
  • Taylor at home against NYG, has looked good. If Watkins is out Harvin should have a high floor. I was all over him weeks 1 and 2 but his price is now $7,600 (but has hit value even at this price each of first 3 weeks).
  • Rivers at home against CLE is decent, they should rebound but this screams low ceiling
Garbage Bin

  • Kaep, just no... right? He has killed it against GB in the past tho...
  • Bradford has generally looked awful. Might get right soon but seems like a gamble on the road against Wash
  • Stafford, I don't want anything to do with him @ Seahawks
  • Bortles, I guess it's a decent matchup @Colts but not interested
  • Smith, Bridgewater, CLE, Texans, Weeden, Cousins - no thanks. Note that Tannehill and Fitz are not on the Sunday slate, but are available Thursday.
  • Two garbage options that actually intrigue me - Winston at home against Carolina ($6700), has hit value at his current price in all 3 games. WRs healthy and Luke McCown just put up 11.4 against Panthers. Mike Evans got 17 targets last week, and could be a decent stack
  • and Jimmy Clausen at home against Oakland. He didn't commit a turnover against Seattle, without Jeffery. If he gets a full WR corps with Jeff, Wilson, Royal and Bennett plus Forte catching, he's not a bad option at $5,700. Used him for a (home) game last year vs. Detroit at home and he put up 15 points (would be nearly triple value on his $5,700 salary). Josh McCown put up 20 against Oakland last week. Clausen-Bennett stack anyone?
I think due to the QB injuries and byes, there is more opportunity to get cute at QB because we're missing 2 x top 5 options and another 4 x top 10ish options (not that Brees has been that this year...). Better to do it this week than when multiple elite QBs are blowing up for big games.

 
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with Watkins out for week 4 no longer on the Taylor bus

looking at something like this for now

QB Derek Carr 7000

RB Latavius Murray 7500

RB Melvin Gordon 6800

WR Julio Jones 9400

WR Larry Fitzgerald 7400

WR James Jones 6000

TE Greg Olsen 6300

K Matt Bryant 4800

D NY Jets 4700
Seems pretty solid but can the Bears keep the game competitive? Could help to have both Carr and Murray just in case Murray gets like all the rushing TDs or Carr gets all the passing TDs. Carr might not have to throw much but if he does he should be able to get enough stats.

I think Gordon is an alternative to Karlos but Karlos is legit and probably higher owned. Gordon hasn't put up more than 10-11 FPS yet.

 
with Watkins out for week 4 no longer on the Taylor bus

looking at something like this for now

QB Derek Carr 7000

RB Latavius Murray 7500

RB Melvin Gordon 6800

WR Julio Jones 9400

WR Larry Fitzgerald 7400

WR James Jones 6000

TE Greg Olsen 6300

K Matt Bryant 4800

D NY Jets 4700
Seems pretty solid but can the Bears keep the game competitive? Could help to have both Carr and Murray just in case Murray gets like all the rushing TDs or Carr gets all the passing TDs. Carr might not have to throw much but if he does he should be able to get enough stats.

I think Gordon is an alternative to Karlos but Karlos is legit and probably higher owned. Gordon hasn't put up more than 10-11 FPS yet.
Going the other way (also GPP only):

Clausen

Forte, Gordon

DT, Evans, Cooper

Bennet, Haushka, Cards

 
I think I have a pretty solid cash lineup already:

Taylor/Dalton 7600

Latavius 7400

Karlos Williams 6300

Julio 9300

Fitzgerald 7400

James Jones 6000

Olsen 6300

Carpenter 4700

Denver 4700

This uses the 2 top RB plays, probably the top WR plays as Adams is probably out this week. Taylor and Dalton has been producing 2x easily and Olsen is the chalk TE play. Might not tinker with this unless McCoy plays.
As has been noted. Giants are solid against the run but suspect against the pass.
Where did this idea come from? According to this:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/myfbg/myfpallowed.php?pos=rb&startwk=1&stopwk=17&yr=2015&profile=0&sortby=15

they are 5th most favorable matchup in fantasy points allowed to RBs under FD scoring. NYG must be tough only in the context of Rushing Yards allowed

 
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I think I have a pretty solid cash lineup already:

Taylor/Dalton 7600

Latavius 7400

Karlos Williams 6300

Julio 9300

Fitzgerald 7400

James Jones 6000

Olsen 6300

Carpenter 4700

Denver 4700

This uses the 2 top RB plays, probably the top WR plays as Adams is probably out this week. Taylor and Dalton has been producing 2x easily and Olsen is the chalk TE play. Might not tinker with this unless McCoy plays.
As has been noted. Giants are solid against the run but suspect against the pass.
Where did this idea come from? According to this:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/myfbg/myfpallowed.php?pos=rb&startwk=1&stopwk=17&yr=2015&profile=0&sortby=15

they are 5th most favorable matchup in fantasy points allowed to RBs under FD scoring. NYG must be tough only in the context of Rushing Yards allowed
The Giants are 2nd in yards/game and have given up 2 rushing TDs. Looks like they've given up some receptions and passing yards to RBs which is driving up their fantasy points allowed.

*Edit* You picked up the reception impact next post.

 
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I think I have a pretty solid cash lineup already:

Taylor/Dalton 7600

Latavius 7400

Karlos Williams 6300

Julio 9300

Fitzgerald 7400

James Jones 6000

Olsen 6300

Carpenter 4700

Denver 4700

This uses the 2 top RB plays, probably the top WR plays as Adams is probably out this week. Taylor and Dalton has been producing 2x easily and Olsen is the chalk TE play. Might not tinker with this unless McCoy plays.
As has been noted. Giants are solid against the run but suspect against the pass.
Where did this idea come from? According to this:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/myfbg/myfpallowed.php?pos=rb&startwk=1&stopwk=17&yr=2015&profile=0&sortby=15

they are 5th most favorable matchup in fantasy points allowed to RBs under FD scoring. NYG must be tough only in the context of Rushing Yards allowed
The Giants are 2nd in yards/game and have given up 2 rushing TDs.
That's fair, looks like most of the points scored against NYG were on the 23 receptions for 203 yards and a touch (Chris Tompson, Freeman, Randle and Dunbar). I doubt Karlos gets a ton of looks as a receiver.

 
Out of curiosity I checked out the 4th quarter play by play in each if the Giants games so far.

Dallas had one rush in the 4th quarter.

Atlanta had four rushes. One from the 1 yd line and two more from inside the redzone.

Washington had two rushes in 4th quarter. One on a 4th and 1 (Matt Jones fumbled for a touchback) and the other was the last play of the game.

Seven total rushes in the final frame so far. I think the question here is will New York have a double digit lead in the 4th again as they have in each of the first three games and less about the NYG run D.

 
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Out of curiosity I checked out the 4th quarter play by play in each if the Giants games so far.

Dallas had one rush in the 4th quarter.

Atlanta had four rushes. One from the 1 yd line and two more from inside the redzone.

Washington had two rushes in 4th quarter. One on a 4th and 1 and the other was the last play of the game.

Seven total rushes in the final frame so far. I think the question here is will New York have a double digit lead in the 4th again as they have in each of the first three games and less about the NYG run D.
buf is giving up the 3rd most points to receivers so there is a good chance they will have a lead

 
My initial line up that I am looking at...

Rodgers

L.Murray

Williams

Cobb

Ja.Jones

Hilton

Reed

Bryant

Panthers

 
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VA703 said:
Shoot_Me_Now said:
Out of curiosity I checked out the 4th quarter play by play in each if the Giants games so far.

Dallas had one rush in the 4th quarter.

Atlanta had four rushes. One from the 1 yd line and two more from inside the redzone.

Washington had two rushes in 4th quarter. One on a 4th and 1 and the other was the last play of the game.

Seven total rushes in the final frame so far. I think the question here is will New York have a double digit lead in the 4th again as they have in each of the first three games and less about the NYG run D.
buf is giving up the 3rd most points to receivers so there is a good chance they will have a lead
You really think NYGs are going to go into Buffalo against that defense and have a lead in the 4th quarter?

 
VA703 said:
Shoot_Me_Now said:
Out of curiosity I checked out the 4th quarter play by play in each if the Giants games so far.

Dallas had one rush in the 4th quarter.

Atlanta had four rushes. One from the 1 yd line and two more from inside the redzone.

Washington had two rushes in 4th quarter. One on a 4th and 1 and the other was the last play of the game.

Seven total rushes in the final frame so far. I think the question here is will New York have a double digit lead in the 4th again as they have in each of the first three games and less about the NYG run D.
buf is giving up the 3rd most points to receivers so there is a good chance they will have a lead
You really think NYGs are going to go into Buffalo against that defense and have a lead in the 4th quarter?
Buffalo has faced 52.33 pass attempts a game while the league average is 35.34.

They had 24-0 lead against Indy, Tom Brady is Tom Brady, and a 27-0 lead against Miami.

Game flow has skewed both the NYG run D and the Buf pass D greatly imo. If Mccoy is out, I'll have Williams sprinkled in my lineups.

 
I probably wont settle on this, but yes I am comfortable with it. Fixed the Jones for clarity.

 
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All in the context of cash games...

The matchup is nice, and the game script may favor him, but this scares me about Melvin Gordon:

"Gordon has one carry on third down and none in the red zone, so the Chargers remain unwilling to use him in crucial moments in the game." Seems to have yet to earn any real trust, or PRivers is checking out of a lot of run plays. Either way that unsettles me and that gives me gas in the digestive area on Sundays. May fade....for now. I also fear the WoodHead this week.

The more I consult the algorithms, I am very much intrigued by Latavius Murray. The second option becomes murkier...

KWilliams is obvious (but still uncertain on Shady's status, ownership will be through the roof, and the GMen are not abysmmal against the run, but a decent play here if Shady is scratched),

DFreeman (coming off career game, ownership will be high, price is no longer great, but does play against a rather average Houston run defense, too many ifs though, just not sold),

Forte (I like him here against Oakland who is just about mid-table against the run, but worried he may not be the most motivated at this point, however Clausen should get him the ball often and early, especially in the passing game if they are going to have a shot, expensive though as well)

Bell & Charles (both are almost match up proof, but just not feeling them too much. Baltimore is stout, Cincy wants to be a contender, both will get theirs but I dont see a huge game considering their price)

Lacy (the man literally gains 5lbs of abdominal fat every week, if he lost 20lbs, guy would be so good, cannot bring myself to start a man with a muffin-top)

Joseph Randle (something intriguing here, just not sure what yet)

MIngram (not a bad play imo with a wounded Brees, although Dallas is pretty stout against the run, also is a bit high for my liking)

Hyde (hmmmm, so much going against him here especially game script but something tells me if the 49ers can keep it mildly close, he has a lot of touches especially off of kapernick's 17 int game this weekend. If this one stays close could see a 25 touch game from him, and the GB run defense is more cream cheese than a stout manchego. This one stirs me but more so for tournaments...but something squeezes my cockles here, slightly contrarian, a professional play)

Bernard and Hill (nah, too much sharing, too much two-headed man in that backfield)

Peterson (total stud again but not this week, no way)

J.Stewart (didnt anyone learn the lesson last week, or last year, or the year before that...Lacy's dining buddy at Golden Coral...no way in that hot/humid Tampa afternoon...he will be covered in grease by the 2nd quarter).

Franklin Gore (from the U...from my high school...old as dirt...but this is a good weekend for him I think, JVille is no slouch against the run but game script favors him getting a nice load. Solid conservative 50/50 play I think, but not spectacular)

Ivory/Powell (eh, Mimai run defense is once again abyssmal, but being a homer and living here, if there is any sense of professional pride this may be the weekend the Miami defense puts together. I would not bet on it, but it is possible. The radio and fans down here are calling for the heads of Philbin, Suh, Cam Wake, the LB core, the defensive coordinator, the GM, etc...Miami's potential scares me too much to get it right against their divisional rival....pass on both, but Ivory could also run for 2 TDs)

Phillys RBs (how healthy is Murray, how real was Mathews, Sproles is cute...but cant touch, not against the strong Redskin defense, just nothing there I dont think)

Lots of question marks early on, but as the week shakes out I think LMurray gets written in ink and then a pivot to KWilliams if Shady's groin remains swollen...or leg, or whatever, Forte from Tulane, possibly Gordon but with reservations, possibly Freeman or Randle. We shall see.

 
All in the context of cash games...

The matchup is nice, and the game script may favor him, but this scares me about Melvin Gordon:

"Gordon has one carry on third down and none in the red zone, so the Chargers remain unwilling to use him in crucial moments in the game." Seems to have yet to earn any real trust, or PRivers is checking out of a lot of run plays. Either way that unsettles me and that gives me gas in the digestive area on Sundays. May fade....for now. I also fear the WoodHead this week.

The more I consult the algorithms, I am very much intrigued by Latavius Murray. The second option becomes murkier...

KWilliams is obvious (but still uncertain on Shady's status, ownership will be through the roof, and the GMen are not abysmmal against the run, but a decent play here if Shady is scratched),

DFreeman (coming off career game, ownership will be high, price is no longer great, but does play against a rather average Houston run defense, too many ifs though, just not sold),

Forte (I like him here against Oakland who is just about mid-table against the run, but worried he may not be the most motivated at this point, however Clausen should get him the ball often and early, especially in the passing game if they are going to have a shot, expensive though as well)

Bell & Charles (both are almost match up proof, but just not feeling them too much. Baltimore is stout, Cincy wants to be a contender, both will get theirs but I dont see a huge game considering their price)

Lacy (the man literally gains 5lbs of abdominal fat every week, if he lost 20lbs, guy would be so good, cannot bring myself to start a man with a muffin-top)

Joseph Randle (something intriguing here, just not sure what yet)

MIngram (not a bad play imo with a wounded Brees, although Dallas is pretty stout against the run, also is a bit high for my liking)

Hyde (hmmmm, so much going against him here especially game script but something tells me if the 49ers can keep it mildly close, he has a lot of touches especially off of kapernick's 17 int game this weekend. If this one stays close could see a 25 touch game from him, and the GB run defense is more cream cheese than a stout manchego. This one stirs me but more so for tournaments...but something squeezes my cockles here, slightly contrarian, a professional play)

Bernard and Hill (nah, too much sharing, too much two-headed man in that backfield)

Peterson (total stud again but not this week, no way)

J.Stewart (didnt anyone learn the lesson last week, or last year, or the year before that...Lacy's dining buddy at Golden Coral...no way in that hot/humid Tampa afternoon...he will be covered in grease by the 2nd quarter).

Franklin Gore (from the U...from my high school...old as dirt...but this is a good weekend for him I think, JVille is no slouch against the run but game script favors him getting a nice load. Solid conservative 50/50 play I think, but not spectacular)

Ivory/Powell (eh, Mimai run defense is once again abyssmal, but being a homer and living here, if there is any sense of professional pride this may be the weekend the Miami defense puts together. I would not bet on it, but it is possible. The radio and fans down here are calling for the heads of Philbin, Suh, Cam Wake, the LB core, the defensive coordinator, the GM, etc...Miami's potential scares me too much to get it right against their divisional rival....pass on both, but Ivory could also run for 2 TDs)

Phillys RBs (how healthy is Murray, how real was Mathews, Sproles is cute...but cant touch, not against the strong Redskin defense, just nothing there I dont think)

Lots of question marks early on, but as the week shakes out I think LMurray gets written in ink and then a pivot to KWilliams if Shady's groin remains swollen...or leg, or whatever, Forte from Tulane, possibly Gordon but with reservations, possibly Freeman or Randle. We shall see.
Dont like Gore against Jax? Blount and Dion Lewis cut up on them last week. I see this as a week that Indy lets the big hogs build some momentum and gel a little. 110 and 2TDs may not be too far fetched if Indy features Gore the entire day. Sprinkle in 3 or 4 catches and you have a 30 point day.

 
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Does anywhere here play the small dollar Satellites for Sunday Million (or other bigger dollar GPPs)? Last week I laid out 3 x $2 satellites for Thursday and 4 x $2 for Sunday, and hit the (very difficult top 6%) cut line on 3. I went with the big 5k+ games rather than the small top 5 out of 71 types. For the Satellites to the bigger dollar GPPs, its much much worse (like 1 out of 172 entries for the $2 satellite to the $300 monster).

So my total cash outlay was $14, and won $75 in entries. But the EV for the Sunday Million is just $75 x 18%, or $13.50. I got fairly lucky to hit 3 of them, so if it was just 1 or 2 the EV would be much worse. Cutline was at 169, so a fair bit higher than the Quintuple up at 154. Cutline for the Sunday Million itself was 151.

Was cool to hit on these for next week, but I doubt it's sustainable.

 
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My initial place card:

M. Ryan

D. Freeman

T. Rawls (just tossed him in after picking the other positions)

Julio

Fitz

Maclin

Barnidge

Bryant

Cards

I don't know that Freeman can go off like last week, but I like the matchup against the Texans. I could easily swap out the Seahawks defense for the Cards: I think both are solid plays this week. I've also been looking at Carr against the Bears as he's got nice value this week and could pair him with Cooper in a lineup and still be able to bring in a better back than Rawls.

 
All in the context of cash games...

The matchup is nice, and the game script may favor him, but this scares me about Melvin Gordon:

"Gordon has one carry on third down and none in the red zone, so the Chargers remain unwilling to use him in crucial moments in the game." Seems to have yet to earn any real trust, or PRivers is checking out of a lot of run plays. Either way that unsettles me and that gives me gas in the digestive area on Sundays. May fade....for now. I also fear the WoodHead this week.

The more I consult the algorithms, I am very much intrigued by Latavius Murray. The second option becomes murkier...

KWilliams is obvious (but still uncertain on Shady's status, ownership will be through the roof, and the GMen are not abysmmal against the run, but a decent play here if Shady is scratched),

DFreeman (coming off career game, ownership will be high, price is no longer great, but does play against a rather average Houston run defense, too many ifs though, just not sold),

Forte (I like him here against Oakland who is just about mid-table against the run, but worried he may not be the most motivated at this point, however Clausen should get him the ball often and early, especially in the passing game if they are going to have a shot, expensive though as well)

Bell & Charles (both are almost match up proof, but just not feeling them too much. Baltimore is stout, Cincy wants to be a contender, both will get theirs but I dont see a huge game considering their price)

Lacy (the man literally gains 5lbs of abdominal fat every week, if he lost 20lbs, guy would be so good, cannot bring myself to start a man with a muffin-top)

Joseph Randle (something intriguing here, just not sure what yet)

MIngram (not a bad play imo with a wounded Brees, although Dallas is pretty stout against the run, also is a bit high for my liking)

Hyde (hmmmm, so much going against him here especially game script but something tells me if the 49ers can keep it mildly close, he has a lot of touches especially off of kapernick's 17 int game this weekend. If this one stays close could see a 25 touch game from him, and the GB run defense is more cream cheese than a stout manchego. This one stirs me but more so for tournaments...but something squeezes my cockles here, slightly contrarian, a professional play)

Bernard and Hill (nah, too much sharing, too much two-headed man in that backfield)

Peterson (total stud again but not this week, no way)

J.Stewart (didnt anyone learn the lesson last week, or last year, or the year before that...Lacy's dining buddy at Golden Coral...no way in that hot/humid Tampa afternoon...he will be covered in grease by the 2nd quarter).

Franklin Gore (from the U...from my high school...old as dirt...but this is a good weekend for him I think, JVille is no slouch against the run but game script favors him getting a nice load. Solid conservative 50/50 play I think, but not spectacular)

Ivory/Powell (eh, Mimai run defense is once again abyssmal, but being a homer and living here, if there is any sense of professional pride this may be the weekend the Miami defense puts together. I would not bet on it, but it is possible. The radio and fans down here are calling for the heads of Philbin, Suh, Cam Wake, the LB core, the defensive coordinator, the GM, etc...Miami's potential scares me too much to get it right against their divisional rival....pass on both, but Ivory could also run for 2 TDs)

Phillys RBs (how healthy is Murray, how real was Mathews, Sproles is cute...but cant touch, not against the strong Redskin defense, just nothing there I dont think)

Lots of question marks early on, but as the week shakes out I think LMurray gets written in ink and then a pivot to KWilliams if Shady's groin remains swollen...or leg, or whatever, Forte from Tulane, possibly Gordon but with reservations, possibly Freeman or Randle. We shall see.
Dont like Gore against Jax? Blount and Dion Lewis cut up on them last week. I see this as a week that Indy lets the big hogs build some momentum and gel a little. 110 and 2TDs may not be too far fetched if Indy features Gore the entire day. Sprinkle in 3 or 4 catches and you have a 30 point day.
Franklin Gore (from the U...from my high school...old as dirt...but this is a good weekend for him I think, JVille is no slouch against the run but game script favors him getting a nice load. Solid conservative 50/50 play I think, but not spectacular)

Like the Gore, dont love the Gore. 85 and TD seems reasonable and a nice safe play. Any more than that is just a good helping of the Gore-Gravy all over us owners. But yes LMurray and Gore form a nice solid, reasonably priced 50/50 backfield in my humble opinion.

 
All in the context of cash games...

The matchup is nice, and the game script may favor him, but this scares me about Melvin Gordon:

"Gordon has one carry on third down and none in the red zone, so the Chargers remain unwilling to use him in crucial moments in the game." Seems to have yet to earn any real trust, or PRivers is checking out of a lot of run plays. Either way that unsettles me and that gives me gas in the digestive area on Sundays. May fade....for now. I also fear the WoodHead this week.

The more I consult the algorithms, I am very much intrigued by Latavius Murray. The second option becomes murkier...

KWilliams is obvious (but still uncertain on Shady's status, ownership will be through the roof, and the GMen are not abysmmal against the run, but a decent play here if Shady is scratched),

DFreeman (coming off career game, ownership will be high, price is no longer great, but does play against a rather average Houston run defense, too many ifs though, just not sold),

Forte (I like him here against Oakland who is just about mid-table against the run, but worried he may not be the most motivated at this point, however Clausen should get him the ball often and early, especially in the passing game if they are going to have a shot, expensive though as well)

Bell & Charles (both are almost match up proof, but just not feeling them too much. Baltimore is stout, Cincy wants to be a contender, both will get theirs but I dont see a huge game considering their price)

Lacy (the man literally gains 5lbs of abdominal fat every week, if he lost 20lbs, guy would be so good, cannot bring myself to start a man with a muffin-top)

Joseph Randle (something intriguing here, just not sure what yet)

MIngram (not a bad play imo with a wounded Brees, although Dallas is pretty stout against the run, also is a bit high for my liking)

Hyde (hmmmm, so much going against him here especially game script but something tells me if the 49ers can keep it mildly close, he has a lot of touches especially off of kapernick's 17 int game this weekend. If this one stays close could see a 25 touch game from him, and the GB run defense is more cream cheese than a stout manchego. This one stirs me but more so for tournaments...but something squeezes my cockles here, slightly contrarian, a professional play)

Bernard and Hill (nah, too much sharing, too much two-headed man in that backfield)

Peterson (total stud again but not this week, no way)

J.Stewart (didnt anyone learn the lesson last week, or last year, or the year before that...Lacy's dining buddy at Golden Coral...no way in that hot/humid Tampa afternoon...he will be covered in grease by the 2nd quarter).

Franklin Gore (from the U...from my high school...old as dirt...but this is a good weekend for him I think, JVille is no slouch against the run but game script favors him getting a nice load. Solid conservative 50/50 play I think, but not spectacular)

Ivory/Powell (eh, Mimai run defense is once again abyssmal, but being a homer and living here, if there is any sense of professional pride this may be the weekend the Miami defense puts together. I would not bet on it, but it is possible. The radio and fans down here are calling for the heads of Philbin, Suh, Cam Wake, the LB core, the defensive coordinator, the GM, etc...Miami's potential scares me too much to get it right against their divisional rival....pass on both, but Ivory could also run for 2 TDs)

Phillys RBs (how healthy is Murray, how real was Mathews, Sproles is cute...but cant touch, not against the strong Redskin defense, just nothing there I dont think)

Lots of question marks early on, but as the week shakes out I think LMurray gets written in ink and then a pivot to KWilliams if Shady's groin remains swollen...or leg, or whatever, Forte from Tulane, possibly Gordon but with reservations, possibly Freeman or Randle. We shall see.
Dont like Gore against Jax? Blount and Dion Lewis cut up on them last week. I see this as a week that Indy lets the big hogs build some momentum and gel a little. 110 and 2TDs may not be too far fetched if Indy features Gore the entire day. Sprinkle in 3 or 4 catches and you have a 30 point day.
Franklin Gore (from the U...from my high school...old as dirt...but this is a good weekend for him I think, JVille is no slouch against the run but game script favors him getting a nice load. Solid conservative 50/50 play I think, but not spectacular)

Like the Gore, dont love the Gore. 85 and TD seems reasonable and a nice safe play. Any more than that is just a good helping of the Gore-Gravy all over us owners. But yes LMurray and Gore form a nice solid, reasonably priced 50/50 backfield in my humble opinion.
I'm flitting around Carr as a cash game QB, which gives me pause for Murray. Not sure how I feel about stacking him with Murray. In a double-up setting that's maybe a good, safe, vanilla strategy. I'm not sure it makes sense for anything else though.

 
Thoughts this week (early):

1) Not likely to touch anything in Thursday's game. Bell of course could see a other-wordly touches, but Baltimore knows that as well.

2) QBs I like (with value in mind) - Bortles, Carr

3) RBS - K. WIlliams, Gordon, possibly Latavius Murray, possibly Forte

4) WR - Julio, Cobb, Demaryius, Hilton, Cooper

5) TE - Reed, Bennet, possibly Clay

6) Denver defense

Early LUs that the software has spit out

A) Bortles, Williams, Murray, Jones, Demaryius, Moncrief, Reed, Vinatieri, Denver

B) Carr, Williams, Freeman, Jones, Hilton, Evans, Reed, Carpenter, Denver

I like the first one a bit more, much more tweeking to do in the database. Last week was easy money, almost any sensible lineup had big performers, especially after narrowing in on AP and LMurray as the obvious RB plays. This week I think the pricing will create the need to take a bit of a risk here or there imo.
Looking forward to having you around.

 
Thoughts this week (early):

1) Not likely to touch anything in Thursday's game. Bell of course could see a other-wordly touches, but Baltimore knows that as well.

2) QBs I like (with value in mind) - Bortles, Carr

3) RBS - K. WIlliams, Gordon, possibly Latavius Murray, possibly Forte

4) WR - Julio, Cobb, Demaryius, Hilton, Cooper

5) TE - Reed, Bennet, possibly Clay

6) Denver defense

Early LUs that the software has spit out

A) Bortles, Williams, Murray, Jones, Demaryius, Moncrief, Reed, Vinatieri, Denver

B) Carr, Williams, Freeman, Jones, Hilton, Evans, Reed, Carpenter, Denver

I like the first one a bit more, much more tweeking to do in the database. Last week was easy money, almost any sensible lineup had big performers, especially after narrowing in on AP and LMurray as the obvious RB plays. This week I think the pricing will create the need to take a bit of a risk here or there imo.
Looking forward to having you around.
I think you are over complicating it a bit. Try to focus on the optimal or top plays at each position. Guys that you want in your lineup and you do not have any thought of not playing them.

 
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There will be points scored in the Indy Jags game. Indy's secondary is in rougher shape than my Chiefs. Chiefs get their top corner in Sean Smith back. I am looking to have a piece of Bortles, Hurns, and Hilton. I assume Davis will be on Robinson. Hilton is about due for a monster stat line.

 
There will be points scored in the Indy Jags game. Indy's secondary is in rougher shape than my Chiefs. Chiefs get their top corner in Sean Smith back. I am looking to have a piece of Bortles, Hurns, and Hilton. I assume Davis will be on Robinson. Hilton is about due for a monster stat line.
I'm circling Bortles as my primary cash QB. I think Indy's pass defense might be really putrid. I don't see 30 from Bortles or anything like that. 15-18 seems awfully probable to my eye.

 
FWIW, twitter rumors about Chicago's fire sale continuing. I'd be nervous about playing anyone not named Bennet.

 
Early 50/50 lineup for Thursday, fading Thursday...

Cam

L Murray

K Williams (even if McCoy plays some I will risk it Thursday)

Julio Jones

K Allen

J Jones (Adams likely out and no price change from Mondays performance)

J Reed (Has been very close to TD's the last few weeks and the price is still so low)

J Lambo (need a 4500 kicker and he is at home

DEN D

 
Early 50/50 lineup for Thursday, fading Thursday...

Cam

L Murray

K Williams (even if McCoy plays some I will risk it Thursday)

Julio Jones

K Allen

J Jones (Adams likely out and no price change from Mondays performance)

J Reed (Has been very close to TD's the last few weeks and the price is still so low)

J Lambo (need a 4500 kicker and he is at home

DEN D
Thoughts on Bell?

If McCoy is ruled out after Thursday, his ownership will spike. I still think it'll be decently high Thursday.

 
Early 50/50 lineup for Thursday, fading Thursday...

Cam

L Murray

K Williams (even if McCoy plays some I will risk it Thursday)

Julio Jones

K Allen

J Jones (Adams likely out and no price change from Mondays performance)

J Reed (Has been very close to TD's the last few weeks and the price is still so low)

J Lambo (need a 4500 kicker and he is at home

DEN D
Thoughts on Bell?

If McCoy is ruled out after Thursday, his ownership will spike. I still think it'll be decently high Thursday.
I am using Bell in a pair of large tournaments where I am going with either Carr/Cooper or Bortles/Hurns. He will get a ton of touches though I am sure the Ravens will be focused on him. It is a bit of a selfish play as I just want to root for him and the Steelers Thursday.

 

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