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Good Posting Judge

2018 MLB Regular Season Thread! Current thread batting average: .420

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The Red Sox exercised their $13M option on Clay Buchholz. He was effective last year when healthy but an inconsistent 31 year old pitcher coming off elbow problems is far from a sure thing. Boston has money to burn and needs starting pitching in the worst way so this move makes more sense for them than it would for other clubs.

He's been rumored to be on the block, either way I think it wouldn't make sense to let him go (he has a near-identical team option for '17). I'm not sure what they'd be looking for in return, given that Boston doesn't have many areas of need in their lineup, assuming they're going to hide Hanley at 1B next year.

The BABIP monsters got him early last year for the first month of the season, then he went on a pretty strong run through July until he strained his elbow.

I read the rumors about Buchholz as a trade chip and found it to be a head scratcher as well. The Red Sox need starting pitching, more starting pitching and then maybe relief pitching. Challenge trades involving players at the same position are pretty rare.

If Buchholz is healthy and decent, the Red Sox need him more than anybody they would get in return. If he's neither healthy or decent or only one of the two, he has negligible trade value.

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The Red Sox exercised their $13M option on Clay Buchholz. He was effective last year when healthy but an inconsistent 31 year old pitcher coming off elbow problems is far from a sure thing. Boston has money to burn and needs starting pitching in the worst way so this move makes more sense for them than it would for other clubs.

He's been rumored to be on the block, either way I think it wouldn't make sense to let him go (he has a near-identical team option for '17). I'm not sure what they'd be looking for in return, given that Boston doesn't have many areas of need in their lineup, assuming they're going to hide Hanley at 1B next year.

The BABIP monsters got him early last year for the first month of the season, then he went on a pretty strong run through July until he strained his elbow.

I read the rumors about Buchholz as a trade chip and found it to be a head scratcher as well. The Red Sox need starting pitching, more starting pitching and then maybe relief pitching. Challenge trades involving players at the same position are pretty rare.

If Buchholz is healthy and decent, the Red Sox need him more than anybody they would get in return. If he's neither healthy or decent or only one of the two, he has negligible trade value.

I looked around and the Buchholz trade chatter seems to be based in nothing but speculation, and the fact that other teams are "interested", which really doesn't mean anything. So who knows.

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Byung-ho Park posted. Bids are due this Friday, then Nexen decides the next Monday if they'll take the top bid.

The winning team then has 30 days to negotiate a contract, with a refund of their posting fee if they can't, and Park then returns to Korea.

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Byung-ho's numbers are spectacular but they're much less impressive in the context of the KBO's inflated offensive stats. His 53 HRs lose a bit of luster when you consider that Eric Thames hit 47. Byung's lack of defensive flexibility makes him less valuable than Jung Ho Kang but the latter's success this year will probably help the market. Kang's deal was 4/$11M which is peanuts in MLB terms. I could easily see Byung getting interest from teams like Seattle or the Oaklands.

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I'm pretty sure Oakland will submit a competitive bid, as he obviously fits a need and it fits in with their strategy of trying to strike early in the market.

Dae-ho Lee is also a FA. A free agent free agent, no post necessary. He's a ####### massive Korean dude who's had four pretty solid years in the NPB with Orix and Softbank, after playing for Lotte for 10 years in the KBO. But he's 33, so isn't likely to get a ton of years.

Seattle too, surely. Colorado? Pittsburgh? Washington? Baltimore? Besides Davis, the 1B crop is pretty woolly.

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Royals decline their options on Rios (12.5) and Guthrie (10). It's amazing that those existed in the first place.

Guthrie's option buyout was pretty large. The renegotiation last year looks like it was really just deferring money from 2014 to 2016

3 years/$25M (2013-15)

re-signed by Kansas City as a free agent 11/20/12

13:$5M, 14:$11M, 15:$9M

deal restructured 1/13/14, reducing 2014 salary from $11M to $8M and adding a 2016 mutual option for $10M ($3.2M buyout)

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I'm pretty sure Oakland will submit a competitive bid, as he obviously fits a need and it fits in with their strategy of trying to strike early in the market.

Dae-ho Lee is also a FA. A free agent free agent, no post necessary. He's a ####### massive Korean dude who's had four pretty solid years in the NPB with Orix and Softbank, after playing for Lotte for 10 years in the KBO. But he's 33, so isn't likely to get a ton of years.

Seattle too, surely. Colorado? Pittsburgh? Washington? Baltimore? Besides Davis, the 1B crop is pretty woolly.

Lee's production in Japan is more impressive than it would be in his native Korea. Average R/G in Japan is much less than the ridiculous 5.5 R/G mark in the KBO although Fukuoka's 4.55 R/G led NPB by a fair margin.

It's hard to tell much from YouTube videos but I'm skeptical about this guy. He's a big guy with long swing who seems like he tries to pull everything. I wonder about his ability to do that successfully with big league pitching. But how can you not root for a 300 lb Korean nicknamed Big Boy? I'm still hoping for an American return for Japhet Amador who looks like he's put on weight since we last saw him in the Astros organization.

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I'm pretty sure Oakland will submit a competitive bid, as he obviously fits a need and it fits in with their strategy of trying to strike early in the market.

Dae-ho Lee is also a FA. A free agent free agent, no post necessary. He's a ####### massive Korean dude who's had four pretty solid years in the NPB with Orix and Softbank, after playing for Lotte for 10 years in the KBO. But he's 33, so isn't likely to get a ton of years.

Seattle too, surely. Colorado? Pittsburgh? Washington? Baltimore? Besides Davis, the 1B crop is pretty woolly.

Lee's production in Japan is more impressive than it would be in his native Korea. Average R/G in Japan is much less than the ridiculous 5.5 R/G mark in the KBO although Fukuoka's 4.55 R/G led NPB by a fair margin.

It's hard to tell much from YouTube videos but I'm skeptical about this guy. He's a big guy with long swing who seems like he tries to pull everything. I wonder about his ability to do that successfully with big league pitching. But how can you not root for a 300 lb Korean nicknamed Big Boy? I'm still hoping for an American return for Japhet Amador who looks like he's put on weight since we last saw him in the Astros organization.

His walk/strikeout rates are pretty good! But his "American retread guy who's hit a similar amount of HR this year" comp is Brandon Laird with 34, Lee had 31.

Is Yuki Yanagita Japan's Mike Trout? Good lord what a year: http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=yanagi000yuk

Edited by Good Posting Judge

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White Sox decline $10M option on Alexei Ramirez. Bump Tim Anderson on your cheat sheets.

Based on this recent Sickels article, Anderson sounds a bit like a younger version of Ramirez: aggressive RH hitter with above average pop for his position but poor K/BB ratios, toolsy but erratic glove. He has a higher long-term ceiling than the aging Ramirez but a higher 2016 bust possibility.

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Looks like the Alexei Ramirez era just came to an end in Chcago

The Sox got good value out of him. 22.6 WAR over 8 years at a relatively low aggregate cost of around $40M. He never developed much plate discipline and his power fluctuated quite a bit but his ability to stay in the lineup shouldn't be underestimated.

Shawon Dunston is B-R's age 33 comp for Ramirez, which seems pretty good in my mind's eye.

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I'll wait for Pickles to chime in

If I had to watch him every day, I'm sure I'd hate Ramirez. Just having him on my fantasy team was no picnic. But taken as a whole, his MLB career has been pretty decent.

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Looks like the Alexei Ramirez era just came to an end in Chcago

The Sox got good value out of him. 22.6 WAR over 8 years at a relatively low aggregate cost of around $40M. He never developed much plate discipline and his power fluctuated quite a bit but his ability to stay in the lineup shouldn't be underestimated.

Shawon Dunston is B-R's age 33 comp for Ramirez, which seems pretty good in my mind's eye.

He was a good fielder, but his UZR has been declining steadily, which you'd expect of a middle infielder in his 30's.

The notable crop of SS FA is Rollins, Asdrubal, Ramirez and Desmond. I guess Desmond's the best of that lot?

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Royals decline their options on Rios (12.5) and Guthrie (10). It's amazing that those existed in the first place.

Yeah, those seemed unnecessary.

I'd like to think those funds (minus buyout obligations) are being diverted to the Pay Alex Gordon Fund, but someone will come along and offer him more than the Royals' max.

If Gordon re-signs, he stays in LF and Paulo Orlando is the new starter in RF.

Fanbase seems heavily in favor of keeping Gordon and Zobrist. Indifferent on Cueto, figuring someone will offer him an obscene amount of money.

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Alex Gordon declines player option for 2016, becomes free agent.

Royals window is going to close pretty quick, here is the first piece.

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Alex Gordon declines player option for 2016, becomes free agent.

Royals window is going to close pretty quick, here is the first piece.

:shrug:

Thought it closed after last year, but here we are.

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Alex Gordon declines player option for 2016, becomes free agent.

Royals window is going to close pretty quick, here is the first piece.

:shrug:

Thought it closed after last year, but here we are.

Why? Everyone from last years team was coming back. They were the AL favorites in Vegas IIRC.

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Alex Gordon declines player option for 2016, becomes free agent.

Royals window is going to close pretty quick, here is the first piece.

He's about to enter his age-32 season, can't play CF, missed two months this summer, and grew up in Royals territory. I don't think the market for him is quite as deep as it seems. Who out there is going to give him $100MM?

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Alex Gordon declines player option for 2016, becomes free agent.

Royals window is going to close pretty quick, here is the first piece.

He's about to enter his age-32 season, can't play CF, missed two months this summer, and grew up in Royals territory. I don't think the market for him is quite as deep as it seems. Who out there is going to give him $100MM?

He was more valuable to the Royals than he will be anywhere else, but he was absolutely valuable to them. Padres will probably throw their wallet at him, they love declining players of all kinds.

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Alex Gordon declines player option for 2016, becomes free agent.

Royals window is going to close pretty quick, here is the first piece.

He's about to enter his age-32 season, can't play CF, missed two months this summer, and grew up in Royals territory. I don't think the market for him is quite as deep as it seems. Who out there is going to give him $100MM?

He was more valuable to the Royals than he will be anywhere else, but he was absolutely valuable to them. Padres will probably throw their wallet at him, they love declining players of all kinds.

First tough call of many for Moore and company. Gordon is a Midwestern guy who was the face of the franchise before he or the team was any good. Sabean would resign him for that reason alone.

The problem is much of Gordon's value comes from his glove which will probably decline before his bat does. When that happens, his bat alone won't justify the contract he's going to get. LF is one of the easiest positions to find above replacement level talent.

Their payroll is going to grow quickly as their core players hit arbitration and free agency. If the Royals can sign Zobrist for about the same AAV and a couple less years, that's what I would do in order to have more flexibility when the bill comes due on Hosmer, Cain and Moustakas. Gordon seems more expendable if the club and fanbase can handle severing the emotional ties. Maybe Gordon will give a hometown discount and everyone will be happy for awhile.

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I think Zobrist is going to stay. Just a hunch. Multi-year deal can be offered, team should be good, KC is much more friendly to overt, devout Christians who homeschool their kids than most of the markets that can write bigger checks.

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Fangraphs fan sourced estimates on the free agents.

The Zobrist talk reminded me of this, Cameron said he's the player he thinks the fans are lowest on, saying he'll get way more than 3/42.

A fourth year will take Zobrist through his age 38 season. I doubt anyone will be calling him underrated then.

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Giants decline Byrd's 8mm option, and...Aoki's 5.5mm option? Even if the Giants had some secret deal with Gordon/Upton/Yoenis or whomever, 5.5mm is pretty reasonable for a fourth OF. Very odd. The link NV provided above has an Aoki contract crowd-sourced at 2/15.7, and 96% believed that SF would pick up his option.

Dumb.

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Alex Gordon declines player option for 2016, becomes free agent.

Royals window is going to close pretty quick, here is the first piece.

:shrug:

Thought it closed after last year, but here we are.

Why? Everyone from last years team was coming back. They were the AL favorites in Vegas IIRC.

You go ahead and find me one site or book that had KC as a morning line favorite when spring training broke

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Odds to Win 2015 World Series at Bovada as of March 28

Washington Nationals 6/1

Los Angeles Dodgers 17/2

Boston Red Sox 10/1

Seattle Mariners 12/1

St. Louis Cardinals 12/1

Los Angeles Angels 14/1

Chicago Cubs 16/1

Chicago White Sox 16/1

Detroit Tigers 16/1

San Diego Padres 18/1

San Francisco Giants 18/1

Cleveland Indians 20/1

Oakland Athletics 25/1

Pittsburgh Pirates 25/1

Toronto Blue Jays 25/1

Baltimore Orioles 33/1

Kansas City Royals 33/1

Miami Marlins 33/1

New York Mets 33/1

New York Yankees 33/1

Cincinnati Reds 50/1

Houston Astros 50/1

Milwaukee Brewers 50/1

Texas Rangers 50/1

Atlanta Braves 66/1

Tampa Bay Rays 66/1

Arizona Diamondbacks 100/1

Colorado Rockies 100/1

Minnesota Twins 100/1

Philadelphia Phillies 150/1

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Rays, Rangers, and Astros seem like good buys.

I'll jump in my time machine and pick the Royals at 33/1

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Giants decline Byrd's 8mm option, and...Aoki's 5.5mm option? Even if the Giants had some secret deal with Gordon/Upton/Yoenis or whomever, 5.5mm is pretty reasonable for a fourth OF. Very odd. The link NV provided above has an Aoki contract crowd-sourced at 2/15.7, and 96% believed that SF would pick up his option.

Dumb.

Byrd is no surprise since the Giants benched him in the last week so his option wouldn't automatically vest.

Aoki is a mild surprise because he was productive while in the lineup. He is a fun guy to watch with a very unique approach at the plate and in the OF :shock: When you subtract his buyout, his 2016 cost would be under $5M which isn't bad even for a fourth OF, especially when your #2 OF is Angel Pagan. Gregor Blanco brings a game that's similar to Aoki which might also factor into this decision.

Right now, I would take this as a vote of confidence in Jarrett Parker and/or Mac Williamson until the Giants go out and sign somebody else.

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I miss watching Aoki play RF. Always fun to see a major leaguer break the wrong way on a ball twice and still make the catch.

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After further review... If that really is the market for Zobrist, he's gone. That's big-market luxury money. If Zobrist really will sign for $15-16MM AAV, may as well pay the $19-20MM to keep Gordon instead.

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After further review... If that really is the market for Zobrist, he's gone. That's big-market luxury money. If Zobrist really will sign for $15-16MM AAV, may as well pay the $19-20MM to keep Gordon instead.

The Royals need to consider years as much as AAV. Zobrist will get three or four (probably three with a vesting option IMO), Gordon will get five. Any team signing Gordon will have better use for money in 2020 than paying a 36 year old LF.

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Alex Gordon is gonna be 32? That surprises me for some reason, and makes me feel old too.

Bobby Doerr is 97. Feel better now?

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Rays, Rangers, and Astros seem like good buys.

I'll jump in my time machine and pick the Royals at 33/1

What year is it?

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Alex Gordon is gonna be 32? That surprises me for some reason, and makes me feel old too.

Bobby Doerr is 97. Feel better now?

Thanks E, just did a somersault in excitement and threw out my back.

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Alex Gordon is gonna be 32? That surprises me for some reason, and makes me feel old too.

Bobby Doerr is 97. Feel better now?

Yeah, but how does that make you feel?

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Alex Gordon is gonna be 32? That surprises me for some reason, and makes me feel old too.

It caught me a little by surprise, too. He was a college player who took a while to break out as a pro, so his arc started a couple years later than expected.

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@TBTimes_Rays: BREAKING: #Rays trade Karns, Riefenhauser, prospect Powell to #Mariners for LoMo, Brad Miller, Farquhar

Doesn't lomo suck? Who are the other two?

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The Dipoto era in Seattle begins with a six player low budget blockbuster.

Brad Miller, Logan Morrison and Danny Farquhar to Tampa for Nate Karns, Boog Powell and CJ Riefenhauser. Farquhar was terrible this year but has been a decent bullpen arm as recently as last year. Miller and Morrison are platoon guys but I still think Miller could be a useful IF/OF type like the Rays have used Zobrist and Sean Rodriguez in the past.

It seems like Tampa is selling high on Karns but if his improvement this year was legit, he would be the best player in the deal. Powell is a fun prospect because of his name but he seems like a 5th OF type. I got nothing on Riefenhauser.

ETA: funny that Miller gets reunited with his old playing time nemesis Nick Franklin. I'm also skeptical about Powell because two smart organizations who love cheap talent more than anything (TB & OAK) have bailed on him.

Edited by Eephus

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