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FanDuel Week 5 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Scoresman
- Start date
gerome
Footballguy
karmarooster
Footballguy
I think it's worthwhile breaking this down. He missed big at TE (along with me and many others), but still came in first, without any obvious guys going nuclear (like a Josh McCown or Eli or a WR posting a 200 yard multi TD game). Bell's TD at the end of the game obviously helped, and he got TDs from Robinson (2) and Fitz (1). Still, that's just 4 TDs outside the QB. Maclin was ho-hum, Woodhead put up about 10 points.
What carried him was K+Def, spending up for almost $10K there, but netting over 30 points.
Basically the winning roster can be summarized as: Stud QB (25 points) + Stud RB (20 points) + big hit on Robinson (22 points) and super solid K + Def. The rest were just treading water/adequate, and a big miss at TE.
Maclin over Matthews -- might not have hurt too much.
Robinson over Jones and Garcon -- Jones was decent (15 points) but Garcon bombed. I cost myself some cash this week by diversifying away from Jones and Robinson to Garcon due to Dodd's chart. Probably would've still cashed if he'd played Jones (but not 1st) and would've likely missed the cash with Garcon.
Clay over Witten/Gates -- well, he didn't actually need it.
Bell over Charles -- the $50,000 selection.
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Fantasysports1
Footballguy
Is this for cash games? No way this lineup did well enough in a GPP.
I had
Rivers
Bell
Forsett
keenan
Fitz
ARob
Clay
Cant
Giants
Broke even on FD. It is tough because Allen was a miss but he had his chances. If Rivers had gotten one more TD and if it was to Allen probably would be fine, a Rivers TD by itself might not lead me to win all my cash games but it could have forced OT if Bell still gets the TD.
The Giants Def was tough, hard to make up that many points, also the K only got 5 pts which hurt and Clay was bad. This is why cash games can be tough. The right move was to make sure you got the Denver Def to lock in the 10 or so points and use Snead. Using Keenan ended up being a bad move but I overlooked Gates return. Gates had 2 TDs, Keenan probably would have gotten one of them. Edelman was the right pick in this price range over Keenan.
The idea of using Snead as a cheap WR to get better players can work but not always. Look if you paid up for Julio or something it didn't work. Paying up for Brady worked, Denver Def, etc. Though if I used a cheap WR I would have considered Aiken over Snead as he is the only passing option and he didn't do that well.
VA703
Footballguy
It's hard to say. My results were good, but they might have been better with fewer lineups. I entered a bunch of qualifiers and hit a few of them. My ROI considering only cash (including buy-ins for qualifiers but not tickets) was 22%. My ROI including the value of future entries was about 113%. (I spent $1875 in buy-ins, won $2,297 in cash, and $1707 worth of future entries.) Obviously, any single week's results don't mean much. But I felt more comfortable being so widely diversified. There was never any real danger of losing 80%+ of my buy-in, which is a real danger with less diversified lineups. (The downside is that there was never any hope of cashing with 80%+ of my entries, which is a possibility with less diversified lineups).
I just checked which lineups made me the most money. I kind of did them in order, so my first few lineups are the ones I would have done even if I were doing only a handful, and the further I went along, the more my lineups were for the sake of diversification rather than composed of my top values. The lineups that made me the most money were #12, #35, and #97 (in that order). So if I'd done only 50 lineups instead of 100, my results might have been better. (Which is to be expected. The point of doing extra lineups is to sacrifice percentage-ROI to get more bankroll in play without taking a huge risk, hopefully leading to greater returns as measured in absolute dollars rather than percentage-ROI.)
Anyway, I've definitely been "running good" (i.e., getting lucky in a way that's not sustainable), so I don't think the Week 5 results are indicative of anything. I'll probably use a similar approach his week, and ultimately I'll get a better sense of whether I like this method better than a less diversified approach.
chet
Footballguy
Do you value your time in the above calculation? I'd bet there were a fair number of hours devoted.
Fantasysports1
Footballguy
I think just recognizing key rules such as paying for a top defense like Denver will help more often than not. You want a defense that is in a groove and has a good expectation of 10 pts. Giants Def was in a good spot but tricky as Giants is not a top defense and what happened was SF scored on them a lot.
Every week is different depending on value at certain positions and the studs that you can pay up for a certain positions. I think a good strategy is to go cheap at one of the WR spots like with Snead this past week so you can pay up for Brady or at least Denver Def. Though this doesn't work always as there may not be any value cheap WRs, unless you consider guys like James Jones at a little more than 6000 on FD.
TE is tricky as Clay was great last week but Tyrod did not pass to Clay in his one man win against TEN. Gates looks like the guy to go for now.
Overall I am finding winning at DFS consistently to be tough. Just the variance alone and there are weeks already where many strong cash plays do poorly. Though there are general rules that will help you win more often. I found making spread picks to be easier simply because it is a team based outcome and there is less variance if you are selective in games you pick.
Every week is different depending on value at certain positions and the studs that you can pay up for a certain positions. I think a good strategy is to go cheap at one of the WR spots like with Snead this past week so you can pay up for Brady or at least Denver Def. Though this doesn't work always as there may not be any value cheap WRs, unless you consider guys like James Jones at a little more than 6000 on FD.
TE is tricky as Clay was great last week but Tyrod did not pass to Clay in his one man win against TEN. Gates looks like the guy to go for now.
Overall I am finding winning at DFS consistently to be tough. Just the variance alone and there are weeks already where many strong cash plays do poorly. Though there are general rules that will help you win more often. I found making spread picks to be easier simply because it is a team based outcome and there is less variance if you are selective in games you pick.
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karmarooster
Footballguy
Still a pretty fascinating experiment. I imagine that you were more heavily invested in Bell but still invested in Charles, and you probably had decent amounts on many guys that didn't pan out (Clay, Garcon, etc). Being so highly diversified and turning a solid profit on a week where some of the top picks get hurt/underperform is pretty solid, but it sounds like you're painting the picture that this was just a 'lucky week' and not sustainable.
In any case, this would be a really great article if written up from beginning to end, covering your development of the Excel and entry method, general roster compositions, and results. Are you going to continue with something similar? If you could run this diversification train for a couple of weeks and pull a decent ROI plus get lots of qualifiers, it might turn into something pretty amazing.
Also your results could go from "pretty good" to "outrageous" like the $50k win last night, if you hit on some of the tourney tickets. $1700 in tickets is pretty insane - mostly Sunday Million or any big big dollar entries?
I probably spent about 20 hours constructing and entering lineups at FanDuel and FantasyDraft. (A hundred lineups at each. FantasyDraft took longer because each lineup had to be entered by hand.) No, I don't account for that in the numbers above. I basically ran out of time to enter Sunday contests at any other sites, or even log into some of my season-long leagues to set my lineups there (it didn't help that MFL was down fifteen minutes before kickoff). (At FantasyDraft, I had a 63% ROI without including tickets, and 71% including tickets.)
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Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
That's the Titans right now. It is definitely not aesthetically pleasing for sure. I really like Mariota, but there isn't a lot of talent elsewhere on the roster. The gameplan seems to be to keep the number of plays as low as possible then hope for a little variance oddity to steal a win against a superior opponent. And by "superior opponent" I mean "whichever NFL team the Titans are playing this week".
karmarooster
Footballguy
Right now I've got a single placeholder lineup entered into about $1700 worth of $5 and $10 contests. My plan is to find a few $1 multi-entry contests and spend $100 to upload all my lineups into them using the FanDuel Chrome Extension from Rotogrinders. Then once my linups are in the system, I can export them to all the $5 and $10 contests in place of the current dummy lineup.
Interested to hear how the 100 entries fare. Mainly at the $2 level (so $200 total) or are you going higher than that?
Then I'll watch this weekend as my dummy placeholder lineup happens to score 200+ points and I'll wonder what could have been if only I'd gotten trapped somewhere and been unable to replace it with all my diversified mediocre lineups. LOL.
+ http://crackingfanduel.footballguys.com/2015/10/my-week-5-ownership-targets.html
Went back to collect the best content from this thread (and this season) from MT. I actually have that RG applet installed for hunting H2H, but didn't ever notice the import csv function. Would you be willing to share the excel workbook with the macros?
Wadsworth
Footballguy
Line up was pretty vanilla, which was the plan with only 25 people in the tourney. Woodhead the only non-chalkish pick. Dodging J. Charles(40% owned) and hitting Broncos D, Gostkowski and A. Robinson was key.
It is not going to change my play style at all, I already requested a check. Just going back to business as usual.
Wadsworth
Footballguy
In a normal GPP I am looking for 3x value but since this tournament was only 25 people I estimated 2.5x or 150 would win it. My goal was to go with safe high floor picks and just a little variance which is why I ran Brady naked and spent up for kicker/defense. If Clay had done anything I would have been right at my 150 goal. Maclin and Woodhead were the tough ones and neither did much but also neither died on the vine. Overall the roster performed basically as I expected and I was lucky to dodge the Charles injury.
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I was going to post it as an attachment here last week, but I can't post .xlsm files because they're scary and dangerous. I could save it as an .xls file and then if you change the extension back yourself that might work. Or what I know will work is if you email me (tremblay@footballguys.com) requesting the workbook and I'll email it to you with instructions.karmarooster said:
Be warned, though: it's messy. When I make Excel workbooks for my own use, they tend not to be user-friendly at all.
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