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Christine Michael Volume 3: Inevitable Greatness Soon Achieved (3 Viewers)

squistion said:
The misses focused on have pretty much all been players who we were told that success was guaranteed, barring an injury. We were repeatedly told that investing in these "can't miss" prospects was a no lose proposition: Trent Richardson was a "mortal lock" and Michael's success was "inevitable," etc.

Even if someone holds themselves out as an expert, writes for a publication that refers to him as an expert, he still shouldn't talk in absolutes IMO as no one can predict the future. This is important because we are dealing with peoples money, as few play in free dynasty leagues and if an expert goes out on a limb like this and tells them essentially you can't lose if you follow my advice, then some will (foolishly) believe it.

You may have noticed that I haven't called out any other experts and that is because I haven't seen any of them claim that their opinion is infallible. For instance, Bloom may say that he believes that a rookie probably does not possess the skill set to make it at the NFL level, but I have never seen him take it a step further and say "I guarantee this player will be a complete bust in the NFL" as EBF did with McFadden (who certainly failed to meet expectations but did have a great year fantasy wise in 2010).

IMO if one talks in absolutes and crows about the players they got right, then they should be held accountable for the players they got wrong.
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Regardless of how much of an expert anyone is or claims to be, I never accept absolutes.  I filter their opinions through my own assessment.  If some people (as you say foolishly) bought into Richardson and Michael based strictly on one poster's supposed expert lock, shame on them.

In this hobby, as you know, you are likely to miss on your projections often.  If you are not missing, you are simply not making any projections.  For the record, most of us missed on Richardson and Michael.  NFL Scouts did as well.  It happens.

You have always struck me as one of the better posters on this site, and I do understand where you are coming from; however, I think we could all benefit from not maintaining a ledger of people's misses (something I know I have been guilty of).  One of the most beneficial aspects of this forum is that the myriad of opinions expressed, some more right or more wrong, all contribute to the group think tank, helping each of us in our own ultimate analysis.

 
I'll let someone else cash this lottery ticket.

You can't own all the upside guys.  You have to make a call here or there, and if it's wrong, and he pays off for someone else, fair enough.  I let someone else cash in Dez Bryant, because I thought his history+Dallas = a huge mess.  So I never cashed in with Dez.    Bad call.  But I knew what I was doing:  Didn't like the risk, someone else will take the risk, if he kills it, good for them, but I will not second guess myself.  

There are a lot of hype blurbs about talented backups this summer.  I'll take a look at the ones that don't have severeal seasons of professional failure already attached to them.  Plus the bizarre emotions attached with the remaining Christine Michael Truthers.  

 
In today's Footballguys' Daily E-mail Update, there was a reference to John Clayton's article suggesting Christine Michael has "a legitimate chance" to earn the starting role for Seattle.  Sure, we have heard this before, but let us not dismiss this too quickly.  After all, this is John Clayton, not some third-rate hack, suggesting this.  While I am doubtful Michael actually prevails in this battle, it is telling that he has earned the right to be discussed as a potential starter.  Michael has gone from being everyone's darling pick a couple seasons ago to being a fantasy tar baby, so his price may be minimal in many leagues.  If you can get Michael with little investment, grab him and let this play out.

 
socrates said:
In today's Footballguys' Daily E-mail Update, there was a reference to John Clayton's article suggesting Christine Michael has "a legitimate chance" to earn the starting role for Seattle.  Sure, we have heard this before, but let us not dismiss this too quickly.  After all, this is John Clayton, not some third-rate hack, suggesting this.  While I am doubtful Michael actually prevails in this battle, it is telling that he has earned the right to be discussed as a potential starter.  Michael has gone from being everyone's darling pick a couple seasons ago to being a fantasy tar baby, so his price may be minimal in many leagues.  If you can get Michael with little investment, grab him and let this play out.
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I don't think this means anything. The philosophy in Seattle is that every job is open to competition. That is one of Carroll's core beliefs. That's why they started Wilson as a rookie despite having just signed Flynn as a free agent. On many teams, that wouldn't have happened.

In this case, the notional incumbent is Rawls, so it isn't even like there is a veteran incumbent with an established track record. Michael could definitely win the job. So could Alex Collins. That said, IMO Rawls will beat out both of them.

 
Michael has by far the most talent on the team in regards to RB'S, his problem has been work ethic not physical ability.  If his head is on straight and it sounds like it is and hes working hard he will easily beat out all the backs on this team IMO.

There is going to be allot of doubting and negative comments in this thread about Michael as he's burned most of us. There will also be a contingent that sold or dropped and would hate to regret it. They will be the loudest here.

Michael is a physical beast. I could very well be wrong, but I don't think it's close talent wise between he and anyone on that RB roster.

 
Billy Ball Thorton said:
Michael has by far the most talent on the team in regards to RB'S, his problem has been work ethic not physical ability.  If his head is on straight and it sounds like it is and hes working hard he will easily beat out all the backs on this team IMO.

There is going to be allot of doubting and negative comments in this thread about Michael as he's burned most of us. There will also be a contingent that sold or dropped and would hate to regret it. They will be the loudest here.

Michael is a physical beast. I could very well be wrong, but I don't think it's close talent wise between he and anyone on that RB roster.
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https://youtu.be/umDr0mPuyQc

 
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Reactions: LBH
Christine Michael rushed seven times for 44 yards in the Seahawks' preseason opener.
With Thomas Rawls (ankle) inactive, Michael started and put up 27 yards on Seattle's opening drive. He looked explosive as always and, perhaps more importantly, did not make any big mistakes. Clearly ahead of rookie Alex Collins, Michael would have considerable fantasy value if something happened to Rawls.

 
 
 
Aug 13 - 5:37 PM
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I held him for 3 years only to drop him halfway through last year... Yes I'm mad bro.  Oh well.  He might have a long 4 year career of relevance ahead of him.  He is 25 already (soon to be 26).

 
Coach Pete Carroll stated after Saturday's preseason opener that the Seahawks' backfield will be a "one-two punch."
He's referring to Christine Michael in addition to Thomas Rawls. Michael has had a superb training camp by all accounts, and shined in Saturday's preseason opener against Kansas City, parlaying seven carries into 44 yards. A 2013 second-round pick, Michael has never lacked for talent but has long been short on maturity. The Seahawks claim he has matured since they reacquired C-Mike after he was cut by Dallas late last year. It's beginning to look like Michael could open the season with a role in Seattle's backfield. He's earning it.
 

Related: Thomas Rawls
 
Source: Bob Condotta on Twitter 
Aug 13 - 9:15 PM
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Zyphros said:
I held him for 3 years only to drop him halfway through last year... Yes I'm mad bro.  Oh well.  He might have a long 4 year career of relevance ahead of him.  He is 25 already (soon to be 26).
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Same here. :rant:

 
wdcrob said:
Live feed mentioned all of the runs were inside, and that he broke tackles on most of them.
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He busted one outside and turned the corner. Showed nice acceleration. As a Seattle fan it was nice to see the interior of the offensive line get push. Gilliam and Britt have moved to new spots, but Seattle has a new starter in all five positions.

 
Don't want to over-read based on a performance in the first preseason game but I did like the way he lowered his head when he hit the line, protected the ball, followed the blocking, showed patience and, on one particular run "got skinny" to pick up a first down.  The play he bounced outside was also nice to see because he recognized the play was busted at the line and showed great burst to get outside.  It's also nice that he didn't try to bust every play outside.

He is probably the most talented of Seattle's healthy backs, and probably by a wide margin.  Rawls coming back at full strength and then continuing his scorching production from last season are both not locks to happen.  I would say they are somewhat unlikely.  At the very least Michael should be drafted as the handcuff and his upside, particularly on a Pete Carrol coached team is RB1.

 
wdcrob said:
To be fair, the buzz has always been on the FF player side.  Reports out of camp have never really been very positive.
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True, not like the team was gushing publicly when he had his meaningless TD run against the Packers 3rd string preseasons ago but we all were. 

 
I have seen no one who genders as much hate and anger as this one player. Did he steal everyone's girlfriend? Even people who never had him come in these threads to condemn him. 

I have had him on taxi squad for 3 years and said I may have to cut him, now not so sure. I have Rawls too but none of the Seattle rookies. 

 
HairySasquatch said:
Just drafted him for a second time in my dynasty league....fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice....well, that's all on me.
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“There's an old saying in Tennessee — I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again.”

 
cr8f said:
I have seen no one who genders as much hate and anger as this one player. Did he steal everyone's girlfriend? Even people who never had him come in these threads to condemn him. 
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He isn't even the leading Aggie in this regard. :no: :bag:

 
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He looks really solid thus far. If there is ever an opportunity for him to get 15-20 touches I think he will almost certainly produce. The thing is, Rawls was by almost every metric one of the best RBs last year and Prosise is going to be involved when healthy. Michael may finally be putting it together but I'm not in love with his opportunity. Rawls would need to not be the same player we saw last year for Michael to be very relevant for fantasy purposes IMO.

 
SameSongNDance said:
He looks really solid thus far. If there is ever an opportunity for him to get 15-20 touches I think he will almost certainly produce. The thing is, Rawls was by almost every metric one of the best RBs last year and Prosise is going to be involved when healthy. Michael may finally be putting it together but I'm not in love with his opportunity. Rawls would need to not be the same player we saw last year for Michael to be very relevant for fantasy purposes IMO.
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Yeah, I really like Rawls, and I think it may take a Rawls injury to make Michael fantasy significant.  Nevertheless, at the price you can get him, Michael is at least a good handcuff.  One concern I do have is how Michael approaches game preparation if he is being used only sparingly on game days.  That may be the true test of Michael's maturity level.

 
SameSongNDance said:
He looks really solid thus far. If there is ever an opportunity for him to get 15-20 touches I think he will almost certainly produce. The thing is, Rawls was by almost every metric one of the best RBs last year and Prosise is going to be involved when healthy. Michael may finally be putting it together but I'm not in love with his opportunity. Rawls would need to not be the same player we saw last year for Michael to be very relevant for fantasy purposes IMO.
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socrates said:
Yeah, I really like Rawls, and I think it may take a Rawls injury to make Michael fantasy significant.  Nevertheless, at the price you can get him, Michael is at least a good handcuff.  One concern I do have is how Michael approaches game preparation if he is being used only sparingly on game days.  That may be the true test of Michael's maturity level.
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I am not certain about this take.  Pete Carrol has a long history of giving the hardest working, best performing players today, not last season, the opportunity to compete for starting jobs.  Rawls was awesome last year and if he is healthy I don't doubt that he will start but I think Michael has an opportunity to significantly eat into Rawls touches.

For me the biggest impact of Michael's success is dropping Rawls draft stock at the same time as he is raising his own. 

Prosise is a non-factor right now, he's missing a ton of valuable time and if Rawls/Michael produce he is going to mostly redshirt this year.

 
50/50 split with C-Mike getting 3rd downs and Rawls getting Red Zone work. If that happens C-Mike with the safer floor and Rawls with the higher ceiling. Neither would be more than RB2's. 

 
Chaka said:
I am not certain about this take. Pete Carrol has a long history of giving the hardest working, best performing players today, not last season, the opportunity to compete for starting jobs. Rawls was awesome last year and if he is healthy I don't doubt that he will start but I think Michael has an opportunity to significantly eat into Rawls touches.

For me the biggest impact of Michael's success is dropping Rawls draft stock at the same time as he is raising his own.

Prosise is a non-factor right now, he's missing a ton of valuable time and if Rawls/Michael produce he is going to mostly redshirt this year.
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I don't think we're really disagreeing at all here. My point is no matter how good Michael looks/is I don't see this being anything more than a timeshare, that's what I mean by "I'm not loving his opportunity."

A lot of the excitement for Michael in the past had to do with a perceived clear path to a feature role (if/when Lynch broke down, his stint in DAL). I still an enormous red flag that he botched his shot in Dallas. But anyway, with Rawls in the picture, Michael's path to a feature role is now pretty much zero barring injury.

From a fantasy perspective, relative to his current ADP he's good value but I expect his ADP to climb up until the start of the reg season. By that time, it's possible that a lot of his upside will already be priced in.

 
Chaka said:
I am not certain about this take.  Pete Carrol has a long history of giving the hardest working, best performing players today, not last season, the opportunity to compete for starting jobs.  Rawls was awesome last year and if he is healthy I don't doubt that he will start but I think Michael has an opportunity to significantly eat into Rawls touches.

For me the biggest impact of Michael's success is dropping Rawls draft stock at the same time as he is raising his own. 

Prosise is a non-factor right now, he's missing a ton of valuable time and if Rawls/Michael produce he is going to mostly redshirt this year.
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I actually think we are in agreement.  Prosise has missed the crucial reps to be an immediate factor.  A third down back, if that is the role Prosise is slated for, is required to understand blitz pickups and pass protection.  The missed time seriously puts his immediate role in jeopardy, imo.

I get what you are saying about Rawls' success coming last season, but the talent and fit was apparent.  Assuming healthy, we both agree Rawls gets the starting role.  Michael's role likely takes the shine off of Rawls' fantasy stock, but even so, I am not sure Michael will have significant fantasy value sharing time as the 1b to Rawls' 1a.  Yes, Michael will eat into Rawls' carries and value, but will that alone be enough to make him fantasy significant?  (Note, I am not suggesting he will not be fantasy relevant.)

I have been recommending Michael for awhile, and I believe he has tremendous value.  If Rawls gets injured or fails to play to last season's level (similar to Jeremy Hill last season), Michael could be a RB1.  

 
SameSongNDance said:
I don't think we're really disagreeing at all here. My point is no matter how good Michael looks/is I don't see this being anything more than a timeshare, that's what I mean by "I'm not loving his opportunity."

A lot of the excitement for Michael in the past had to do with a perceived clear path to a feature role (if/when Lynch broke down, his stint in DAL). I still an enormous red flag that he botched his shot in Dallas. But anyway, with Rawls in the picture, Michael's path to a feature role is now pretty much zero barring injury.

From a fantasy perspective, relative to his current ADP he's good value but I expect his ADP to climb up until the start of the reg season. By that time, it's possible that a lot of his upside will already be priced in.
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This is where I disagree with you, in part at least.  As far as being a "feature back" you are probably right, although I think it is a greater than zero chance (even without injury, that's just how Carrol rolls), you can also say that, if Michael continues to impress with both attitude and gameplay, Rawls path to feature back status is also significantly diminished.

 
socrates said:
I actually think we are in agreement.  Prosise has missed the crucial reps to be an immediate factor.  A third down back, if that is the role Prosise is slated for, is required to understand blitz pickups and pass protection.  The missed time seriously puts his immediate role in jeopardy, imo.

I get what you are saying about Rawls' success coming last season, but the talent and fit was apparent.  Assuming healthy, we both agree Rawls gets the starting role.  Michael's role likely takes the shine off of Rawls' fantasy stock, but even so, I am not sure Michael will have significant fantasy value sharing time as the 1b to Rawls' 1a.  Yes, Michael will eat into Rawls' carries and value, but will that alone be enough to make him fantasy significant?  (Note, I am not suggesting he will not be fantasy relevant.)

I have been recommending Michael for awhile, and I believe he has tremendous value.  If Rawls gets injured or fails to play to last season's level (similar to Jeremy Hill last season), Michael could be a RB1.  
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I don't know if Michael can get enough carries to be fantasy relevant but I am getting closer to saying that Rawls may no longer have the RB1 upside that everyone was predicting (barring an injury to Michael of course) and he may only end up being a mid-tier RB2.

My point is that Rawls will likely be to pricey to end up on my team this season (one league, 12 team super-flex redraft).

 
Chaka said:
This is where I disagree with you, in part at least. As far as being a "feature back" you are probably right, although I think it is a greater than zero chance (even without injury, that's just how Carrol rolls), you can also say that, if Michael continues to impress with both attitude and gameplay, Rawls path to feature back status is also significantly diminished.
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Nah man, we're still in agreement haha. I was just extremely impressed with what Rawls did last year.

Carrol doesn't seem averse to the idea of using Rawls and Michael as a one-two punch and it makes sense given what we've see and are seeing. Fantasy aside, this backfield could be really fun to watch this year.

 
According to ESPN Seahawks reporter Sheil Kapadia, "by all indications" Christine Michael "will have role on offense once the regular season starts."

Kapadia's article (linked below) has numerous quotes from teammates and coaches citing Michael's improved maturity and on-field performance. Despite poor work habits and preparation to this point, fourth-year RB Michael has averaged 4.7 yards per carry in his career. He has averaged 5.82 YPC on 17 preseason totes while showing dramatic improvement in the passing game. Michael may not be a threat to Thomas Rawls' Week 1 starting job, but beat writers and coaches anticipate C-Mike logging significant playing time.

Source: ESPN.com
Aug 19 - 1:53 PM

 
Chaka said:
I don't know if Michael can get enough carries to be fantasy relevant but I am getting closer to saying that Rawls may no longer have the RB1 upside that everyone was predicting (barring an injury to Michael of course) and he may only end up being a mid-tier RB2.
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Michael's positive play recently has not changed Rawls' RB1 upside one bit. If Rawls plays like he did last season, he will get the majority of the carries and have a shot at RB1. He may or may not play that well this season, but that doesn't really have much to do with Michael, it has to do with coming back from injury and potential regression, given that his level of play last season was elite.

 
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