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Week 7 FAN DUEL (1 Viewer)

eoMMan said:
I just noticed the big FD tourney dropped to 500k to first and with less max entrants.

I guess FD is indeed getting less traffic.
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I'm really happy with the the changes in the pay structure because the low payout is now $50. That's what it was last year and so far this year, the lowest cash level has only been $40. Up until the last couple of weeks, I've had fairly good luck playing it as a big double up, but it wasn't paying off nearly as well at a minimum payout of $40. The cut line is usually somewhere between a double up & a triple up with nearly unlimited upside. A good cash lineup can pay pretty well in that tournament since so many people load up their teams with long shots. You wont win with a cash lineup, but you can churn out a profit on a regular basis and when you hit a good lineup, the return can be many times larger than a defined multiplier game. In week 1, I was able to win $2,000 on one entry and that pretty much sold me on the upside to that approach.

 
Anyone have Gates ownership numbers? Thomas is lower than I thought under 5%. Same with Barnidge.

Palmer is about 33%.

 
Bobcat10 said:
Anyone have Gates ownership numbers? Thomas is lower than I thought under 5%. Same with Barnidge.

Palmer is about 33%.
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Kelce is also mostly at 5% and Clay at around 7% in the big double up. Also curious what Gates is.

 
I did 3 tonight...Freeman and Gurley are both about 60% owned or slightly higher. Moncrief is about 30% in the 2 I have him.

Palmer at 40%. Bortles at 5%. Im definitely gonna ride Bortles on the games I play for sunday,

 
For the geniuses that thought of Fanduels advertising campaign in the first place it wouldnt surprise me if they were leveraging expected future earnings to justify the multi-millions they were lighting on fire each week.

Anyone else watching the game? Lynch looks good for the first time all year.

 
Faded Thurs almost entirely. All GPP, out of 10 LUs, played SEA D in one.

Interesting percentages from my LUs:

Nate Washington : 0.3% :yes:

Julio Jones: 10.4%

D. Walker: 2.8%

L. Green: 2.5% :wub:

David Carr: 2.2%

Cam: 6.2% :thumbup:

ODB; 2.6% :unsure:

M. Bryant: 28.1% :shock:

 
So, I ultimately ran out 2 Thursday cash lineups. Faded everything tonight (didn't watch but it was apparently basically unwatchable anyway), which was apparently the right call and an unusually common call amongst the masses. I also faded the Cardinals in both of them for better or worse. I've built a couple Cardinal-heavy lineups for my Sunday slate (Palmer-Fitz and a Fitz-Brown (assuming the latter is healthy)), so I wanted to limit my exposure there a little bit on Thursday. I'm probably a little over-exposed on the London game, but whatever. I'm irrationally fixated on the Jags right now and don't get satisfy my jones in the Sun-Mon slate.

 
Well against my better judgment I rolled out the Cards superstack in my Thursday 50/50s. It's risky, but I'm playing with profit and it's a small week this week. With the SD receiving corps all banged up, wasn't comfortable going to Rivers. Wasn't comfortable with Cam either. Palmer just feels like the chalk play at QB for good reason this week.

I nearly played the Jets WR stack, but couldn't get past the fact that Fitzpatrick has a terrible, terrible, terrible production resume against the Patriots. It's like BB knows what Fitz is going to do before he does it... and NY's best chance in that game is playing keep away with a steady dose of Ivory.

For better or worse... with approximate percentages across my 50/50s

Palmer (30-35%)

Freeman (~60%)

Gurley (~65%)

Fitzgerald (45-55%)

Brown (15-20%)

Moncrief (20-25%)

Julius Thomas (5-10%)

Boswell (5%)

Rams (45%)

 
finger11 said:
I'm in love with this lineup:

Landry Jones
Todd Gurley
Devonta Freeman
DeAndre Hopkins
Donte Moncrief
John Brown
Antonio Gates
Stephen Gostkowski
St Louis Rams

Also like Fitzgerald, Snead, Decker, L. Miller. If going up to Palmer/Rivers will have to cut down from Hopkins to Fitz and switch out Brown for Decker/Snead. I like Steve Smith at 6900 but that Cards secondary could take him out of the equation.
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Mines not far off, like my WRs & TE a bit more with Gates dinged:

Jones

Freeman

Gurley

Hopkins

Hilton

Bryant

Clay

Zuerlein

Bucs

 
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For those wrestling with how many Cardinals to roster this week, here's an interesting observation from Bill Barnwell:

More than anything, Arians seems to love stomping on inferior teams the way Belichick does. Remember a few weeks ago, when the Cardinals were up 31-7 at halftime on the 49ers and Arians went into the locker room and said “If you relax, I’ll be looking for new people. Put your foot on their throat” to his team? And then promptly went for it on fourth down inside the red zone up 40-7 in the fourth quarter? Doesn’t that seem like something Belichick would do?

Since 2001, nobody has destroyed bad teams like Belichick and his Patriots. They’ve beaten teams with losing records by 20 points or more a whopping 43 times. Nobody else in the league has done it 33 times. Arians’s Cardinals have already pulled that feat off three times across their past five games. They’ll be itching to pick up a fourth blowout win on Monday night.

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
For those wrestling with how many Cardinals to roster this week, here's an interesting observation from Bill Barnwell:

More than anything, Arians seems to love stomping on inferior teams the way Belichick does. Remember a few weeks ago, when the Cardinals were up 31-7 at halftime on the 49ers and Arians went into the locker room and said “If you relax, I’ll be looking for new people. Put your foot on their throat” to his team? And then promptly went for it on fourth down inside the red zone up 40-7 in the fourth quarter? Doesn’t that seem like something Belichick would do?

Since 2001, nobody has destroyed bad teams like Belichick and his Patriots. They’ve beaten teams with losing records by 20 points or more a whopping 43 times. Nobody else in the league has done it 33 times. Arians’s Cardinals have already pulled that feat off three times across their past five games. They’ll be itching to pick up a fourth blowout win on Monday night.
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Combine that with getting embarassed by Landry Jones of all people last week, I think they will have their foot on the throttle all game.

 
Current Survivor/Cash:

Palmer

Freeman, Gurley

Fitz

SS --> Alt to Monc

Decker

Walker

Lambo --> Alt to Gostkowski

Rams

 
snellman said:
Tennessee_ATO said:
For those wrestling with how many Cardinals to roster this week, here's an interesting observation from Bill Barnwell:

More than anything, Arians seems to love stomping on inferior teams the way Belichick does. Remember a few weeks ago, when the Cardinals were up 31-7 at halftime on the 49ers and Arians went into the locker room and said “If you relax, I’ll be looking for new people. Put your foot on their throat” to his team? And then promptly went for it on fourth down inside the red zone up 40-7 in the fourth quarter? Doesn’t that seem like something Belichick would do?

Since 2001, nobody has destroyed bad teams like Belichick and his Patriots. They’ve beaten teams with losing records by 20 points or more a whopping 43 times. Nobody else in the league has done it 33 times. Arians’s Cardinals have already pulled that feat off three times across their past five games. They’ll be itching to pick up a fourth blowout win on Monday night.
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Combine that with getting embarassed by Landry Jones of all people last week, I think they will have their foot on the throttle all game.
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To add to this, and what ultimately gave me comfort starting the Arizona trio, from Evan Silva's Matchups Column at Rotoworld:

Permitting the second most fantasy points to wide receivers, the Ravens have coughed up stat lines of 10-227-2 (A.J. Green), 5-94-1 (Marvin Jones), 9-111-1 (Michael Crabtree), 7-109-1 (Amari Cooper), 5-102 (Anquan Boldin), 3-96-1 (Torrey Smith), and 6-83 (Travis Benjamin). All three of Arizona's wideouts are in plum Week 7 spots. ... The Ravens have especially struggled to stop the long ball, coughing up the NFL's third most 20-plus-yard completions and a league-high seven pass plays of 40-plus yards. It can't help that Baltimore lost FS Kendrick Lewis to a knee injury last week. This matchup plays directly into the hands of 4.34 burner Brown, who ranks third in the NFL in 40-plus-yard catches. ... It's difficult to say exactly which cornerback each Cardinals wide receiver will square off with Monday night because they all move around a fair amount, and Baltimore's secondary has experienced so many injuries and performance-related benchings that we can't be certain who'll be playing corner or where for the Ravens. We do know Fitz is currently the overall fantasy WR2, and an outstanding Week 7 play against one of the NFL's worst pass defenses.
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The Bengals top 2 WRs compiled a combined 15-321-3 line.

The Raiders top 2 WRs compiled a combined 16-220-2 line.

The 49ers top 2 WRs compiled a combined 8-198-1 line.

The Browns top 2 WRs compiled a combined 10-158 line, but Barnidge added another 8-139-1, meaning the top-2 pass catchers combined for 14-222-1.

The Cardinals passing game is arguably comparable to the Bengals, and superior to the others listed. I think Brown and Fitz could easily combine for 15-200-2 on MNF.

 
Stefon Diggs ran as the Vikings' No. 4 receiver, behind Charles Johnson, at practice Thursday.

In the same drills Wednesday, Diggs was with the starters, ahead of Johnson. The coaching staff flipped the script Thursday with Johnson returning to form from a ribs injury, and OC Norv Turner cautioned outsiders to "slow down" before anointing the rookie a starter. "He's got a lot of work to do," Turner said. "He had an opportunity because of injury, he came in and made the most of it." With that injured player back, Diggs could be headed back to a sub-package role.
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The thing with the Ravens D is that against the run they're pretty good so everyone knows the only way to really get to them is to throw. Kind of the perfect storm for a good QB and WRs going against a lousy pass D but good run D.

 
Looking deeper into Todd Gurley, he doesnt rank particularly high on Football Outsiders, and the STL O line is ranked near the bottom as well. Despite this, he's had two monster games in a row and now faces a terrible run D. I also noticed that Cleveland will be down Haden and a FS which could mean good things for the STL passing game...

This is how overthinking begins.

 
Gates was missing from practice again today. Thanks for the heads up on reevaluating the not worrying about missing practice statement.

 
Scoresman said:
Looking deeper into Todd Gurley, he doesnt rank particularly high on Football Outsiders, and the STL O line is ranked near the bottom as well. Despite this, he's had two monster games in a row and now faces a terrible run D. I also noticed that Cleveland will be down Haden and a FS which could mean good things for the STL passing game...

This is how overthinking begins.
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Don't overthink! This dude is crazy talented. I was somewhat surprised that Fisher fed him 49 carries in two games after just a "warmup" the week before (6 carries). With a week of rest, I hope they beefed up the passing offense and schemed for Cleveland's weakness against the run. Tavon Austin actually has a rush TD for the Rams, but no RB does. That has to change. Gurley+Rams and Palmer+Fitz are the combo of stacks that I'll be building around.

DukeBroadway said:
Gates was missing from practice again today. Thanks for the heads up on reevaluating the not worrying about missing practice statement.
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This isn't going to get any better with the Chargers game not kicking off until 4pm, so I doubt we'll have clarity at 1pm. He's already locked into one of my TNF LUs, so I think that's probably all the Gates action I'll get. The additional problem is that Clay isn't on the main slate, and neither is JT. So my pivots are now Walker and Kelce (hoping he's featured for double digit targets, even with Maclin back, those two are about all they have). Maybe Reid goes back to using Kelce on screens as he did last year (haven't seen enough of Kelce to know for this year).

 
Or maybe Witten is the next best low cost, high(ish) floor TE for cash/survivor?

Walker has a pretty wide range of stat lines with Mettenberger, from 1-6 to 5-155. ATL gave up the huge game to Ben Watson last week.

Witten has no history with Cassel, but NYG give up pretty good points to TEs.

 
Based upon the GPP ownership percentages from Thursday, I'm pretty intrigued by Andrew Luck, Adrian Peterson and Rob Gronkowksi. That trio were all under 5% ownership and we know what type of upside they have. Gronk's might leap up quite a bit by Sunday if the Gates news is bad though, so wouldn't bank on him being at 4% like he was Thursday.

Like everyone else, I love that AZ passing game matchup against the Ravens. But haven't seen many mentioning Michael Floyd. He's looked good the past few weeks and at only $4,900 is a high-upside dart throw if you're running out Gronk, Luck, Peterson, etc. like I will probably do in a bunch of GPP lineups.

Digging Lamar Miller as an inexpensive RB2 with Gurley's GPP ownership probably ending up at 30-40%.

 
^^ Barnidge is an option I'm considering without the Gates option (soooooo happy I avoided him in Thursdays). Barnidge is $100 more, which you can probably get to by dropping down a kicker. St. Louis is a great defense, but they've struggled with TEs since losing Ogletree. Cleveland's likely going to have to throw.

Kelce with Maclin back isn't comforting to me, but you're right in that TE is kind of a mess this week with no Thomas or Clay in the main slate.

 
Another couple possible TEs in the Gates price range. Watson and Cameron. Definitely hit or miss, but possibly worth a look.

 
karmarooster said:
Or maybe Witten is the next best low cost, high(ish) floor TE for cash/survivor?

Walker has a pretty wide range of stat lines with Mettenberger, from 1-6 to 5-155. ATL gave up the huge game to Ben Watson last week.

Witten has no history with Cassel, but NYG give up pretty good points to TEs.
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Witten isn't a sexy pick, but he might be the smart play. NYG are susceptible to TEs. Witten scored 22 points against them in their week 1 matchup.

I'm also definitely going to have some exposure to L. Green. I just doubt that SD rushes Gates back out there with a knee sprain. Even if he goes, he's likely to be limited.

 
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I currently have in cash

Palmer

Freeman

Gurley

Hopkins

Decker

Diggs

Green

Prater

Rams

I like John Brown, Moncrief as well, probably like Brown more than Decker. Decker is a bit TD dependent but he has been getting them. I think you almost have to use a guy like Diggs as the cheap WR just to fit in the players you want. Diggs have 3 straight 2x weeks, hard to even find any sub 6k WRs you can use in cash.

 
Gates is in all of my Thursday lineups... sad face :(

I've always like how rosters are locked after games. I never had to worry about my lineups afterwards. But now... maaan, it would have been nice if this injury news came out sooner! If he had a sprain, why was he never taken out the game?!

 
I really hate these weeks when there is a very popular cash game lineup. Those seem to be my downfall.

Freeman

Gurley

Fitzgerald

Brown, if he plays

Gates/Green

Seem to be extremely popular.

 
Wonderllama said:
Gates is in all of my Thursday lineups... sad face :(

I've always like how rosters are locked after games. I never had to worry about my lineups afterwards. But now... maaan, it would have been nice if this injury news came out sooner! If he had a sprain, why was he never taken out the game?!
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It happen in the last drive of the game. They were in hurry up, he was loose. I bet if they tied the game , he wouldn't have played in OT.

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
pbandy1 said:
Mike Evans this week anyone?
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ya know I like him, he is due to do something. I do have him in a couple lineups to try him out
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IMO there is nothing not to like about him this week. Doug Martin has a tough match-up @ washington so I don't think he'll be tearing it up like he did last time against the Jags. I sincerely believe he'll be targeted heavily and in the red-zone. At $7500 he is a perfect GPP play as he can put up elite WR1 numbers, and certainly has the body and upside. Will be low-owned and has a good match-up against the WAS corners, likely Will Blackmon

 
I don't think WAS run D is that great. The teams that have actually fed their RB the ball have gotten great results. It's the teams teams that have stopped or were inept, (MIA, PHI, etc.) That helped pad their stats.

 
Loipz said:
I don't think WAS run D is that great. The teams that have actually fed their RB the ball have gotten great results. It's the teams teams that have stopped or were inept, (MIA, PHI, etc.) That helped pad their stats.
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true. I tend to play RBs at home though (not always the case), but I also believe the 'Skins have seen what Doug Martin has done the past two weeks. I think they'll make Winston beat them.

 
These are my current cash LU's

Newton

Freeman

Peterson

N. Washington

S. Smith

Moncrief

Olsen

Gostkowskli

Rams

Rivers

Peterson

Gurley

Fitz

R. Mathews

Decker

Barnidge

Catanzaro

Rams

Palmer

Freeman

Gurley

Fitz

snead

Decker

Gates (ready to replace with Green depending on report)

Catanzaro

Rams

Hoyer

Freeman

Gurley

Hopkins

Diggs ( thinking of changing this guy out)

Decker

Gates (Ready to switch out with Green)

Gostkoski

Falcons

 
Working on my 1pm...basically done but wanted to see what combo is preferred by the guys here that create their own projections. I want to rule out 1, or probably 2, of these. Get rid of Diggs lineup for sure? Which are your favorites?

Luck, Decker, N.Washington, Walker, Walsh (or Boswell)

vs

Hoyer, Moncrief, Decker, Walker, Gostkowski

vs

Hoyer, Moncrief, Diggs, Barnidge, Gostkowski

vs

Hoyer, Moncrief, Matthews, Barnidge, Walsh (or Boswell)

All the lineups have Gurley, Freeman, Hopkins, and Rams.

 
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