Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Week 7 FAN DUEL (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Drafthorse
- Start date
DukeBroadway
Footballguy
DukeBroadway
Footballguy
Game flow just never goes like you think it should. Whats with all this running the ball.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Yep. And then Arizona didn't run it when they needed to run it. Baltimore will get the ball with about 1:55 left. Inexcusably bad clock management. Some NFL teams need a full-time clock manager who has uber-veto authority over everyone inside of about 3:00 in a 1-possession game.
DukeBroadway
Footballguy
Andy Reid needs one
Last edited by a moderator:
DukeBroadway
Footballguy
I am just no good at DFS. I just need to apparently play the 1pm only time. I kill that one. Every other time I am apparently their B*tch. At this point, I am not sure what I need to fix. Felt great about this week.
Last edited by a moderator:
GilbertGrape
Footballguy
Me too. For 3 weeks I only played that and won $900. Last two weeks I've incorporated Thursday games and given it all back, plus a little more.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Yeah, this is a huge knock for FD. Just silly that you can't change your lineup for games that haven't kicked off yet.
Wadsworth
Footballguy
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Different strokes and all. That combined with having to start a K, not full ppr, and less options for cheap games had me going to DK more from the start.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Sigmund was pretty high in the FBG Double-Up, like top 120 or so.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
The primetime slate isn't a good one to play. Every time you eliminate a solid play (such as Gurley last week) for the mix, it becomes more about luck. The winners this week will have guessed right on Chris Johnson, Ellington, Lewis, Blount. I'd rather play someone like Diggs or Green where I have solid information for a leg up.
achemen
Footballguy
He finished at 112 with 160.92. I was at 125 with 159.84. Have cashed in this every week but one, and the one I didn't cash in was the only one I won a ticket in....
22% profit on my entry fees and could of been much more if Fitzgerald showed up a bit more. The lineup that torpedoed me was my Mettenburger (with Hopkins/Freeman) lineup. The ATL/TEN game was the lowest scoring game in the NFL since 2012... how do they not give Julio that TD?
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Pretty lame week for me. Down 19.8%. Lots of lineups in the low 130's, which was generally a useless place to be. Game scripts didn't go according to my plan -- how does a healthy Julio struggle against a team who was down 2 starting DBs? How does Freeman not run wild against one of the worst rush defenses in the league? How does Fitz not have a good game against one of the worst pass defenses in the league? How can the Jags score 2 defensive TDs in the 2nd quarter to essentially render their passing attack irrelevant until late in the 4th quarter? And how does the 1 position that Buffalo can defend in the passing attack -- #1 WRs -- be the position that does most of the damage in that limited Jags passing attack? How does an NFL football team fall behind 41-0 at the half?
karmarooster
Footballguy
Won a grand total of $7 on about $500 in total entries. Modest loss on the main slate and a pretty solid profit in terms of ROI on the 1pm/Sunday only slate.
I hurt my chances pretty badly by "diversifying" my main Palmer, Freeman/Gurley, Fitz/Monc/Decker, Witten/Gostkowski/Rams LU due to the Dodds value chart being all over snead. The move to snead, off of Decker, and resulting change in Kicker cost me 10 survivors and at least $100 in return, as the main LU cashed comfortably at 141 and the ALT with Snead missed every line at 126. Two weeks in a row that's happened to me, as week 6 the value chart was super high on Wallace.
For the season I'm pretty much treading water.... "down" $50 as the Survivors were a $250 outlay but have only "equity" right now.... which by the way is at (35/12,000) x $250k = $729. If you were able to keep all 50 survivors alive, they're worth just over $1,040 right now. One more week to get to 7.5k and into the cash, then another cut down to 4k and another to 2k before a chance for the finals.
I hurt my chances pretty badly by "diversifying" my main Palmer, Freeman/Gurley, Fitz/Monc/Decker, Witten/Gostkowski/Rams LU due to the Dodds value chart being all over snead. The move to snead, off of Decker, and resulting change in Kicker cost me 10 survivors and at least $100 in return, as the main LU cashed comfortably at 141 and the ALT with Snead missed every line at 126. Two weeks in a row that's happened to me, as week 6 the value chart was super high on Wallace.
For the season I'm pretty much treading water.... "down" $50 as the Survivors were a $250 outlay but have only "equity" right now.... which by the way is at (35/12,000) x $250k = $729. If you were able to keep all 50 survivors alive, they're worth just over $1,040 right now. One more week to get to 7.5k and into the cash, then another cut down to 4k and another to 2k before a chance for the finals.
I was off snead on FD because I figured he was a better PPR play so had him in my DK lineups.
One interesting thing is that one of my main lineups I had in both thurs-sun and sun-mon contests. 75% profit in thur-sun, about even in sun-mon (palmer/fitz stack)
I wish I knew more about the survivor league... I only have one entry
Last edited by a moderator:
Bobcat10
Footballguy
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
IMO this week hinged a lot on Gurley and the Rams D. Gurley's ownership was near 50%, and the Rams were between 20-25%. Lots of lineups combining the two. Thats 55.3 points for $11,900. It takes an awful lot of being right elsewhere to make up for that.Thursdays:
Hoyer, Freeman, Gurley, Hopkins, Woods, Decker, Gates, Goskowski, Seattle 131.52.
Newton, Freeman, Gurley, Marshall, S. Smith, N. Washington, Olsen, Catanzaro, Rams 132.08++Finished 150.38
Sunday-Mon:
Luck, Foster, Miller, Fitzgerald, J. Brown, Decker, Walker, Gostkowski, Rams. 149.52++ Finished 169.42
Rivers, Gurley, Peterson, Allen, Moncrief, Decker, Reed, Bryant, Vikings 144.14
Palmer, Freeman, Foster, Hopkins, Diggs, Floyd, Ertz, Gostkowski, Rams 116.5++ Finished 149.1
Palmer, Freeman, Gurley, Fitzgerald, Diggs, Moncrief, Barnidge, Catanzaro, Panthers 97.5+++ Finished 130.1
Sunday only:
Bortles, McCoy, Gurley, Hopkins, Marshall, N. Washington, J. Thomas, Vinatieri, Rams 130.48
I had an up and down night. Early in the 4th, I was up 85%. Then one by one, my lineups that were done on Sunday got passed up. Still ended up 63%. The 144.14 lineup was in a triple up. Held on for a 2 way split for last place in the cash.
Every LU I had on fanduel scored above 140 except for 1. The 1 is where my lineup change of gates to Green didnt go through and I scored 129.5 in that one and didnt cash in s single entry at 129. All other ones cashed.
I then got too fancy and thought I could make it back and did a $50 50/50 and a $25 50/50. Crashed and burned in both which wiped out my gain for the week.
I am going to stick to my $1-5 cash double and 50/50 games this week. I had 5 solid LU last week.
Same thing on DK where I LU that scored 170.5 points. It cashed the majority of its entries, but there were a quarter of them where that 170.5 score was enough to cash in double ups and 50/50's.. crazy. I feel I always do better on cash games on FD.
Last week I just made a place holder LU and would buy into games during the week as I went along each day, then on Saturday I made a solid core of LU's and sunday morning made the appropriate changes, or I thought I did at least.
Robert
I then got too fancy and thought I could make it back and did a $50 50/50 and a $25 50/50. Crashed and burned in both which wiped out my gain for the week.
I am going to stick to my $1-5 cash double and 50/50 games this week. I had 5 solid LU last week.
Same thing on DK where I LU that scored 170.5 points. It cashed the majority of its entries, but there were a quarter of them where that 170.5 score was enough to cash in double ups and 50/50's.. crazy. I feel I always do better on cash games on FD.
Last week I just made a place holder LU and would buy into games during the week as I went along each day, then on Saturday I made a solid core of LU's and sunday morning made the appropriate changes, or I thought I did at least.
Robert
. Foster also had another RD opportunity when he got injured.
I have actually noticed this too. I am wondering if more new people come in and play the 10-$25 games and think this is easy Ill make more money.
JFS171
Footballguy
This is really interesting to me... I generally only play the cash games and usually hovered between $5 and $10 games... then thought I'd drop down to the $1 and $2 games as there were probably more noobs and less difficulty. Apparently a lot of people are doing just that.wyattroa said:
Have you guys observed this as a trend on the season, or could last week have been an anomaly?
karmarooster
Footballguy
The general trend is that lower entries have lower scores required to cash. If you enter a number of e.g. Double Ups at $2, $5, $10, $25, $50 ... the scores to cash will get more difficult going up.
However, it sounds like you are reporting the opposite. The "Condia Rule" which limits the number of games you can play on a weekend used to be 1,000, meaning for anyone other than those playing approx. $1500 per weekend (half at $1, half at $2), you should stay at the very bottom.
The new Condia Rule is 5,000 entries per weekend (another example of FD catering to their whales who will happily pay them $1000+ per weekend (the rake on 5k entries at $2 each). Therefore, more and more "pros" may be flooding the lowest dollar limits to get the easiest action, in turn driving up the scores required to cash and potentially making the $2, $5 and $10 games slightly easier.
Or, it could be an anomaly based on just a few data points.
However, it sounds like you are reporting the opposite. The "Condia Rule" which limits the number of games you can play on a weekend used to be 1,000, meaning for anyone other than those playing approx. $1500 per weekend (half at $1, half at $2), you should stay at the very bottom.
The new Condia Rule is 5,000 entries per weekend (another example of FD catering to their whales who will happily pay them $1000+ per weekend (the rake on 5k entries at $2 each). Therefore, more and more "pros" may be flooding the lowest dollar limits to get the easiest action, in turn driving up the scores required to cash and potentially making the $2, $5 and $10 games slightly easier.
Or, it could be an anomaly based on just a few data points.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
I tried to groupsource this data at the start of the year to see if we could verify the "sweet spot" to play. Everyone was pretty dismissive of my effort as a waste of time because "the lower the entry level, the lower the score needed to win". I've never believed that to necessarily be true, although I've never necessarily believed it to be false either. I just don't think I've seen enough data to say one way or the other. Like I said then -- that's a question that has an answer that we ought to be able to provide easily enough.
JFS171
Footballguy
Agreed - should we start a Money Line thread? Probably the best way to get this moving forward...
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
I will gladly add my data. Might be the w/e before I can do it. It's all at the $2 level I think.
Drafthorse
Footballguy
I started a $ line thread for us to populate.
Bobcat linked to an earlier thread for data to mine
Bobcat linked to an earlier thread for data to mine
Wadsworth
Footballguy
Man, it almost worked. My Mon-Thurs LU put up 134.34 and I made some money. One long TD from Ellington late and...oh well. On to week 8.
