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Dynasty: 2015 Draft Class Temperature Check (1 Viewer)

Uncle Grandpa

Uncle Grandpa

Footballguy
Well, we've had 6 weeks to examine some of the 2015 rookies. I'd be interested to see how the overall opinion has changed since Biabreakable pulled together his rookie polls in the offseason. Here is the consensus top 12 PPR rookies per BB's polls:

1.01 RB Todd Gurley (63.6%)

1.02 WR Amari Cooper (62.3%)

1.03 RB Melvin Gordon (72%)

1.04 WR Kevin White (84.1%)

1.05 WR DeVante Parker (75%)

1.06 WR Nelson Agholor (45.4%)

1.07RB Ameer Abdullah (31.3%)

1.08 RB TJ Yeldon (41.1%)

1.09 WR Breshad Perriman (40.2%)

1.10 WR Dorial Green-Beckham (39.5%)

1.11 RB Tevin Coleman (53%)

1.12 WR Phillip Dorsett (41%)

Here's how I'd rank them today:

1. Gurley

2. Cooper

3. Yeldon

4. Abdullah

5. White

6. Gordon

7. Perriman

8. Diggs

9. Parker

10. David Johnson

11. Duke Johnson

12. Montgomery

Honorable mention: Green-Beckham, Mariota, Lockett

What's your list look like?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Uncle Grandpa said:
Well, we've had 6 weeks to examine some of the 2015 rookies. I'd be interested to see how the overall opinion has changed since Biabreakable pulled together his rookie polls in the offseason. Here is the consensus top 12 PPR rookies per BB's polls:

1.01 RB Todd Gurley (63.6%)

1.02 WR Amari Cooper (62.3%)

1.03 RB Melvin Gordon (72%)

1.04 WR Kevin White (84.1%)

1.05 WR DeVante Parker (75%)

1.06 WR Nelson Agholor (45.4%)

1.07RB Ameer Abdullah (31.3%)

1.08 RB TJ Yeldon (41.1%)

1.09 WR Breshad Perriman (40.2%)

1.10 WR Dorial Green-Beckham (39.5%)

1.11 RB Tevin Coleman (53%)

1.12 WR Phillip Dorsett (41%)

Here's how I'd rank them today:

1. Gurley

2. Cooper

3. Yeldon

4. Abdullah

5. White

6. Gordon

7. Perriman

8. Diggs

9. Parker

10. David Johnson

11. Duke Johnson

12. Montgomery

Honorable mention: Green-Beckham, Mariota, Lockett

What's your list look like?
Click to expand...
injured guys on your list who may not play this year?

 
Tier I

Gurley
Cooper

Tier II

White
Parker

Jameis Winston

Diggs (Yes, drink the Kool-Aid)

Tier III

Marcus Mariota

Tyler Lockett

Perriman

Yeldon

David Johnson

Phillip Dorsett

Duke Johnson

Agholor

Gordon

Tevin Coleman

Tier IV

Abdullah (Major bust potential)

Matt Jones
Montgomery

DGB

 
Uncle Grandpa said:
Well, we've had 6 weeks to examine some of the 2015 rookies. I'd be interested to see how the overall opinion has changed since Biabreakable pulled together his rookie polls in the offseason. Here is the consensus top 12 PPR rookies per BB's polls:

1.01 RB Todd Gurley (63.6%)

1.02 WR Amari Cooper (62.3%)

1.03 RB Melvin Gordon (72%)

1.04 WR Kevin White (84.1%)

1.05 WR DeVante Parker (75%)

1.06 WR Nelson Agholor (45.4%)

1.07RB Ameer Abdullah (31.3%)

1.08 RB TJ Yeldon (41.1%)

1.09 WR Breshad Perriman (40.2%)

1.10 WR Dorial Green-Beckham (39.5%)

1.11 RB Tevin Coleman (53%)

1.12 WR Phillip Dorsett (41%)

Here's how I'd rank them today:

1. Gurley

2. Cooper

3. Yeldon

4. Abdullah

5. White

6. Gordon

7. Perriman

8. Diggs

9. Parker

10. David Johnson

11. Duke Johnson

12. Montgomery

Honorable mention: Green-Beckham, Mariota, Lockett

What's your list look like?
Click to expand...
1A: Gurley

1B: Cooper

You could make an argument that stud WR has become more important. than RB. RB turn up every week that can throw up points regularly. Give me 3 stud WRs, and I'll find RBs to help my team. If you go RB/RB, you need to get lucky at WR. But Gurley appears to be a special player, so I think he is still #1.

3: Diggs

4: David Johnson

If Diggs had been a 1st rounder, there would be no question. If he disappears over the next few weeks, this may look silly, but we may be looking at Teddy's #1 WR for the next 5+ years. Johnson might seem like a reach, but other backs only have opportunity as an advantage over him. That can change in a hurry, though, give me the better team, and better talent. I think he has looked great, and CJ and Ellington are eminently replaceable.

5: White

6: Yeldon

7: Gordon

I can't drop Kevin White too far, as he looks like he could be a true #1 WR. Yeldon and Gordon are here because of opportunity. Neither has impressed me, and all three of these teams scare me, they may be going in the wrong direction.

8: Lockett

9: Mariota

Why not Lockett? BIg plays win weeks, and if you play in return leagues, he's worth it. Mariota has shown enough, and there are a lot of QBs getting old, and a lot of dynasty teams need to think about replacing Rivers/Brady/Manning etc. If you need a QB, I think he's worth it.

10: Green-Beckham

11: Duke Johnson

I don't like baggage, but DGB, if head on right, can score a lot with only a few targets. Johnson plays for the Browns, otherwise a lot higher.

 
massraider said:
Uncle Grandpa said:
Well, we've had 6 weeks to examine some of the 2015 rookies. I'd be interested to see how the overall opinion has changed since Biabreakable pulled together his rookie polls in the offseason. Here is the consensus top 12 PPR rookies per BB's polls:

1.01 RB Todd Gurley (63.6%)

1.02 WR Amari Cooper (62.3%)

1.03 RB Melvin Gordon (72%)

1.04 WR Kevin White (84.1%)

1.05 WR DeVante Parker (75%)

1.06 WR Nelson Agholor (45.4%)

1.07RB Ameer Abdullah (31.3%)

1.08 RB TJ Yeldon (41.1%)

1.09 WR Breshad Perriman (40.2%)

1.10 WR Dorial Green-Beckham (39.5%)

1.11 RB Tevin Coleman (53%)

1.12 WR Phillip Dorsett (41%)

Here's how I'd rank them today:

1. Gurley

2. Cooper

3. Yeldon

4. Abdullah

5. White

6. Gordon

7. Perriman

8. Diggs

9. Parker

10. David Johnson

11. Duke Johnson

12. Montgomery

Honorable mention: Green-Beckham, Mariota, Lockett

What's your list look like?
Click to expand...
1A: Gurley

1B: Cooper

You could make an argument that stud WR has become more important. than RB. RB turn up every week that can throw up points regularly. Give me 3 stud WRs, and I'll find RBs to help my team. If you go RB/RB, you need to get lucky at WR. But Gurley appears to be a special player, so I think he is still #1.

3: Diggs

4: David Johnson

If Diggs had been a 1st rounder, there would be no question. If he disappears over the next few weeks, this may look silly, but we may be looking at Teddy's #1 WR for the next 5+ years. Johnson might seem like a reach, but other backs only have opportunity as an advantage over him. That can change in a hurry, though, give me the better team, and better talent. I think he has looked great, and CJ and Ellington are eminently replaceable.

5: White

6: Yeldon

7: Gordon

I can't drop Kevin White too far, as he looks like he could be a true #1 WR. Yeldon and Gordon are here because of opportunity. Neither has impressed me, and all three of these teams scare me, they may be going in the wrong direction.

8: Lockett

9: Mariota

Why not Lockett? BIg plays win weeks, and if you play in return leagues, he's worth it. Mariota has shown enough, and there are a lot of QBs getting old, and a lot of dynasty teams need to think about replacing Rivers/Brady/Manning etc. If you need a QB, I think he's worth it.

10: Green-Beckham

11: Duke Johnson

I don't like baggage, but DGB, if head on right, can score a lot with only a few targets. Johnson plays for the Browns, otherwise a lot higher.
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Great list and writeup.

 
Uncle Grandpa said:
Bri said:
injured guys on your list who may not play this year?
Click to expand...
Is the suggestion that because Perriman and White are injured they fall off the dynasty radar?
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I was unsure what you were "up to" but it seems more clear now with this reply.

Mariota is way too low.

DGB has to be ahead of White and Perriman. You see the Titans want to use him but he's just not ready or up to NFL speed yet (typical rook stuff) and ya gotta predict that for those two next year.

Matthews' emergence has to impact Devante.

I can't stand Wilson's WRs for FF so I'm not touching Lockett nor telling you you're right or wrong. I just hate the unpredictability.

Today, Diggs would have to be 2nd to Amari but I am totally open to changes. I think you're not giving enough credit to rook panning out versus potential after injury. Diggs made it, he can produce.

I don't know about either Johnson. I thought both would beat out the starter by now.

Abdullah is falling fast. He was going to be elite and now we're fully immersed in RBBC with not much hope of coming out of it. He needs to emerge again as the season closes.

Agholor and DGB should show ya something by year's end. I don't think Huff or Cooper have been rock solid, nor Hunter or Douglas. Those two can win starting jobs.

In the least, I think you need an adjustment for injury. IDK exactly how I'd suggest but ya gotta throw some thought into recovery and how they'll be after

 
No TEs mentioned. I think Maxx Williams and Clive Walford may make some fantasy noise in the next few years.

 
Bri said:
DGB has to be ahead of White
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:no:

I guess you could argue that DGB minus character issues could have been a better prospect than White, but White was picked so much higher that I can't see a reasonable argument for taking DGB ahead of him at this point in their careers when neither has really shown anything.

Right now I'd put Gurley-Cooper as a strong 1-2. White in the three hole and then after that it opens up more based on personal preference. Was never personally very high on Parker/Perriman/Agholor, so for me they aren't very interesting despite their high draft slots. Same for Coleman, Yeldon, and Duke. Whether they succeed or not, they're unlikely to ever be on one of my rosters. I don't view Ameer as an elite prospect, but I still think he can be good. I think there are lot of things working against him right now (mainly usage, coaching, and supporting cast). Still would equate his value to someone like Gio pending a better context. He is still a buy/hold for me, though I think his price has dropped slightly. Certainly wouldn't give a top 4-5 rookie pick for him.

Relatively optimistic about Dorsett, Diggs, and Montgomery.

That all being said, for me the valuable question is not, "Which player is worth the most?" but rather, "Which player offers the best ROI?" We know that Gurley and Cooper look awesome, but good luck acquiring them. It would take ridiculous value to pry them away from an owner. White is a more compelling buy if you can find an owner who is impatient/easily frightened. I like Ty if you can get him for a 2nd rounder. Wouldn't pay a 1st. I like Smelter for cheap and Cobb as a throw-in flyer. Diggs is an interesting call. You can still buy him now some places from owners who lucked into him and might not necessarily think he's legit (if they think he's this year's Cecil Shorts flash in the pan). There's both an upside and a downside to it. Kind of a gut check moment on him right now.

 
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EBF said:
Bri said:
DGB has to be ahead of White
Click to expand...
:no:

I guess you could argue that DGB minus character issues could have been a better prospect than White, but White was picked so much higher that I can't see a reasonable argument for taking DGB ahead of him at this point in their careers when neither has really shown anything.

Right now I'd put Gurley-Cooper as a strong 1-2. White in the three hole and then after that it opens up more based on personal preference. Was never personally very high on Parker/Perriman/Agholor, so for me they aren't very interesting despite their high draft slots. Same for Coleman, Yeldon, and Duke. Whether they succeed or not, they're unlikely to ever be on one of my rosters. I don't view Ameer as an elite prospect, but I still think he can be good. I think there are lot of things working against him right now (mainly usage, coaching, and supporting cast). Still would equate his value to someone like Gio pending a better context. He is still a buy/hold for me, though I think his price has dropped slightly. Certainly wouldn't give a top 4-5 rookie pick for him.

Relatively optimistic about Dorsett, Diggs, and Montgomery.

That all being said, for me the valuable question is not, "Which player is worth the most?" but rather, "Which player offers the best ROI?" We know that Gurley and Cooper look awesome, but good luck acquiring them. It would take ridiculous value to pry them away from an owner. White is a more compelling buy if you can find an owner who is impatient/easily frightened. I like Ty if you can get him for a 2nd rounder. Wouldn't pay a 1st. I like Smelter for cheap and Cobb as a throw-in flyer. Diggs is an interesting call. You can still buy him now some places from owners who lucked into him and might not necessarily think he's legit (if they think he's this year's Cecil Shorts flash in the pan). There's both an upside and a downside to it. Kind of a gut check moment on him right now.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the feedback. Some good info.

 
Chris Conley is still relatively cheap too. Also look into Smelter. I actually scooped both off the wire last night. Both have some very interesting athletics.

Clive Walford is going to get rolling too.

 
stuckinthemuck said:
Tier I

Gurley

Cooper

Tier II

White

Parker

Jameis Winston

Diggs (Yes, drink the Kool-Aid)

Tier III

Marcus Mariota

Tyler Lockett

Perriman

Yeldon

David Johnson

Phillip Dorsett

Duke Johnson

Agholor

Gordon

Tevin Coleman

Tier IV

Abdullah (Major bust potential)

Matt Jones

Montgomery

DGB
Click to expand...
I'm another one who is drinking the "Diggs Kool-Aid". I was high on him during draft time and own about 15 shares. Just traded Dion Lewis for Diggs and a 2016 3rd. And he's only 21 years old.

 
stuckinthemuck said:
Tier I

Gurley

Cooper

Tier II

White

Parker

Jameis Winston

Diggs (Yes, drink the Kool-Aid)

Tier III

Marcus Mariota

Tyler Lockett

Perriman

Yeldon

David Johnson

Phillip Dorsett

Duke Johnson

Agholor

Gordon

Tevin Coleman

Tier IV

Abdullah (Major bust potential)

Matt Jones

Montgomery

DGB
Click to expand...
Where's Karlos Williams in your mind?
 
mr roboto said:
stuckinthemuck said:
Tier I

Gurley

Cooper

Tier II

White

Parker

Jameis Winston

Diggs (Yes, drink the Kool-Aid)

Tier III

Marcus Mariota

Tyler Lockett

Perriman

Yeldon

David Johnson

Phillip Dorsett

Duke Johnson

Agholor

Gordon

Tevin Coleman

Tier IV

Abdullah (Major bust potential)

Matt Jones

Montgomery

DGB
Click to expand...
Where's Karlos Williams in your mind?
Click to expand...
Lots of potential, but this concussion is very concerning. I read today that it is getting worse not better. Is his career already in jeopardy? I hope not, but it will be almost a month very soon. I can see the team putting him on IR fairly soon if he isn't showing progress.

 
Denver724 said:
mr roboto said:
stuckinthemuck said:
Tier I

Gurley

Cooper

Tier II

White

Parker

Jameis Winston

Diggs (Yes, drink the Kool-Aid)

Tier III

Marcus Mariota

Tyler Lockett

Perriman

Yeldon

David Johnson

Phillip Dorsett

Duke Johnson

Agholor

Gordon

Tevin Coleman

Tier IV

Abdullah (Major bust potential)

Matt Jones

Montgomery

DGB
Click to expand...
Where's Karlos Williams in your mind?
Click to expand...
Lots of potential, but this concussion is very concerning. I read today that it is getting worse not better. Is his career already in jeopardy? I hope not, but it will be almost a month very soon. I can see the team putting him on IR fairly soon if he isn't showing progress.
Click to expand...
Cite?

 
Papa John said:
Denver724 said:
mr roboto said:
stuckinthemuck said:
Tier I

Gurley

Cooper

Tier II

White

Parker

Jameis Winston

Diggs (Yes, drink the Kool-Aid)

Tier III

Marcus Mariota

Tyler Lockett

Perriman

Yeldon

David Johnson

Phillip Dorsett

Duke Johnson

Agholor

Gordon

Tevin Coleman

Tier IV

Abdullah (Major bust potential)

Matt Jones

Montgomery

DGB
Click to expand...
Where's Karlos Williams in your mind?
Click to expand...
Lots of potential, but this concussion is very concerning. I read today that it is getting worse not better. Is his career already in jeopardy? I hope not, but it will be almost a month very soon. I can see the team putting him on IR fairly soon if he isn't showing progress.
Click to expand...
Cite?
Click to expand...
Twitter

Zach Jezioro ‏@ZachJezioro_9 Oct 29

Now Karlos Williams concussion is now worse than normal according to @BillsFanaticsBF. Not good. #Bills

 
At this relatively early point, it makes mroe sense to move a few specific players well up the board than to move most specific players significantly down the board. A lot of people have dropped players like Melvin Gordon too far based on limited returns, but he's flashed some reall talent at times. Agholar has battled an injury. There aren't many players to this point deserving of significant drop. There are a couple already mentioned that certainly do deserve a giant bump though. most notably Matt Jones, Diggs, and Karlos Williams

 
Denver724 said:
Papa John said:
Denver724 said:
mr roboto said:
stuckinthemuck said:
Tier I

Gurley

Cooper

Tier II

White

Parker

Jameis Winston

Diggs (Yes, drink the Kool-Aid)

Tier III

Marcus Mariota

Tyler Lockett

Perriman

Yeldon

David Johnson

Phillip Dorsett

Duke Johnson

Agholor

Gordon

Tevin Coleman

Tier IV

Abdullah (Major bust potential)

Matt Jones

Montgomery

DGB
Click to expand...
Where's Karlos Williams in your mind?
Click to expand...
Lots of potential, but this concussion is very concerning. I read today that it is getting worse not better. Is his career already in jeopardy? I hope not, but it will be almost a month very soon. I can see the team putting him on IR fairly soon if he isn't showing progress.
Click to expand...
Cite?
Click to expand...
TwitterZach Jezioro ‏@ZachJezioro_9 Oct 29

Now Karlos Williams concussion is now worse than normal according to @BillsFanaticsBF. Not good. #Bills
Click to expand...
This doesn't seem to be actually news or reporting, just speculation on a Twitter account, based on the fact that he's already been out of action as long as he has.

 
EBF said:
Bri said:
DGB has to be ahead of White
Click to expand...
:no:

I guess you could argue that DGB minus character issues could have been a better prospect than White, but White was picked so much higher that I can't see a reasonable argument for taking DGB ahead of him at this point in their careers when neither has really shown anything.
Click to expand...
You're not taking into account White having to learn the NFL and beat out veterans. DGB has a good head start on the learning process.

Further, he is showing that starting point where fans and coaches all discuss him being significant.

Hunter has not produced. Once acclimated he seems to be a starter.

Another value for him is the QB. If possible, always get bonus points for ranking the WRs that can "come up" with a QB and be "their guy." Is their a better young QB than Mariota? maybe but he surely has shown potential to be the best. His backup has an arm that won't show a big step down in DGB production once it's happening.

It's not fair to bring up his character concerns now. Stoops said he was a good boy and he's behaved very well with TEN. We're getting near two years of "good boy" behavior.

Kevin got hurt and in that time so did other Bears WRs. While he missed his opportunity Wilson didn't. He stepped up and finally seemed to begin to reach his own potential. 6 for 80 yards filling in and then 6 for 85 yards and TD in one start. That's not too shabby and probably another in White's way or in the least another WR to take a piece of the pie.

In TEN, they got rid of Nicks and Turzilli who were ahead of him on the depth chart. The other sort of predraft darling (McBride) they put on the PS.

An added point, DGB has shown some beastliness near the GL a bit. The biggest surprise (which shouldn't have been! ) was how awesome he is at blocking. There has been a plethora of NFL coaches that sorely appreciate good blocking WRs. A new coach in TEN is likely but regardless if he's one of these that appreciate blocking an extra bit, it's going to take two seconds for a new coach to see tape and not think WOW.

 
RushHour said:
Denver724 said:
Papa John said:
Denver724 said:
mr roboto said:
stuckinthemuck said:
Tier I

Gurley

Cooper

Tier II

White

Parker

Jameis Winston

Diggs (Yes, drink the Kool-Aid)

Tier III

Marcus Mariota

Tyler Lockett

Perriman

Yeldon

David Johnson

Phillip Dorsett

Duke Johnson

Agholor

Gordon

Tevin Coleman

Tier IV

Abdullah (Major bust potential)

Matt Jones

Montgomery

DGB
Click to expand...
Where's Karlos Williams in your mind?
Click to expand...
Lots of potential, but this concussion is very concerning. I read today that it is getting worse not better. Is his career already in jeopardy? I hope not, but it will be almost a month very soon. I can see the team putting him on IR fairly soon if he isn't showing progress.
Click to expand...
Cite?
Click to expand...
TwitterZach Jezioro ‏@ZachJezioro_9 Oct 29

Now Karlos Williams concussion is now worse than normal according to @BillsFanaticsBF. Not good. #Bills
Click to expand...
This doesn't seem to be actually news or reporting, just speculation on a Twitter account, based on the fact that he's already been out of action as long as he has.
Click to expand...
Could be, but the silence (from him and the team) is deafening.

 
It seems like Gurley and Cooper are being valued as the top guys at their positions in dynasty right now.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
jurb26 said:
Alex P Keaton said:
jurb26 said:
It seems like Gurley and Cooper are being valued as the top guys at their positions in dynasty right now.
Click to expand...
Overall, or just from this draft class?
Click to expand...
Overall.
Click to expand...
Who values Cooper as the #1 overall WR now??
Click to expand...
I doubt many do, but is it really all that much easier to tyrade for the 4th or 5th WR as opposed to whomever you consider #1? I don't think it's unreasonable at all to consider him among the top 5 or 6 guys at this point as rookie seasons this dominant are still rare.

 
massraider said:
duaneok66 said:
it's too early. For a lot of players, the rookie year is a redshirt year.
Click to expand...
A few years ago, I would agree. We used to go looking for that 3rd year WR, now it sure seems like a lot of guys are hitting the ground running.
Click to expand...
The game has changed, QBs and WRs have benefited the most. The fact that you can't touch them after 5yds is enough to change the game but that's not the only rule that have made it easier for them.

Tex

 
renesauz said:
Alex P Keaton said:
jurb26 said:
Alex P Keaton said:
jurb26 said:
It seems like Gurley and Cooper are being valued as the top guys at their positions in dynasty right now.
Click to expand...
Overall, or just from this draft class?
Click to expand...
Overall.
Click to expand...
Who values Cooper as the #1 overall WR now??
Click to expand...
I doubt many do, but is it really all that much easier to tyrade for the 4th or 5th WR as opposed to whomever you consider #1? I don't think it's unreasonable at all to consider him among the top 5 or 6 guys at this point as rookie seasons this dominant are still rare.
Click to expand...
I'm fine with all that. Just don't see him as anywhere near the clear cut #1 today. I would put him around the 6-7 range.
 
Alex P Keaton said:
renesauz said:
Alex P Keaton said:
jurb26 said:
Alex P Keaton said:
jurb26 said:
It seems like Gurley and Cooper are being valued as the top guys at their positions in dynasty right now.
Click to expand...
Overall, or just from this draft class?
Click to expand...
Overall.
Click to expand...
Who values Cooper as the #1 overall WR now??
Click to expand...
I doubt many do, but is it really all that much easier to tyrade for the 4th or 5th WR as opposed to whomever you consider #1? I don't think it's unreasonable at all to consider him among the top 5 or 6 guys at this point as rookie seasons this dominant are still rare.
Click to expand...
I'm fine with all that. Just don't see him as anywhere near the clear cut #1 today. I would put him around the 6-7 range.
Click to expand...
People turning down Julio for him in the Julio thread. I've sent flyers out to acquire him and have been told he's the #1 WR... Of course that's people owning him. Still, he's in the conversation.

 
Denver724 said:
Papa John said:
Denver724 said:
mr roboto said:
stuckinthemuck said:
Tier I

Gurley

Cooper

Tier II

White

Parker

Jameis Winston

Diggs (Yes, drink the Kool-Aid)

Tier III

Marcus Mariota

Tyler Lockett

Perriman

Yeldon

David Johnson

Phillip Dorsett

Duke Johnson

Agholor

Gordon

Tevin Coleman

Tier IV

Abdullah (Major bust potential)

Matt Jones

Montgomery

DGB
Click to expand...
Where's Karlos Williams in your mind?
Click to expand...
Lots of potential, but this concussion is very concerning. I read today that it is getting worse not better. Is his career already in jeopardy? I hope not, but it will be almost a month very soon. I can see the team putting him on IR fairly soon if he isn't showing progress.
Click to expand...
Cite?
Click to expand...
Twitter

Zach Jezioro ‏@ZachJezioro_9 Oct 29

Now Karlos Williams concussion is now worse than normal according to @BillsFanaticsBF. Not good. #Bills
Click to expand...
Wow, after already being out 4 or 5 weeks. Yikes.

 
Great topic UG

When I make rookie rankings I do so with the idea of the players value over the next 3 seasons. I will usually draw conclusions mid-way to the end of a players second season. I do value players who can make an impact right away over players that have a longer development and I try to factor that into my rankings. When players start producing right away that can cause them to move up but I still think I need to let things play out a bit before making big changes. By this time I am ranking the rookies along with the veterans and the rookie rankings mean less as time goes on.

To give a couple examples from last season, I had Kelvin Benjamin ranked pretty high because of his talent and the opportunity of his situation. At the same time I thought it would take him a season before things really started to click. What did happen is Benjamin produced right away, so ahead of my expectation, this caused him to go up a bit in my eyes because I was expecting that to take longer for him. Now he is injured and not playing. Devin Funchess who I had ranked as a second tier prospect (Benjamin was 1st tier) hasn't produced yet despite there being opportunity for him to do so. Funchess hasn't moved down in my rankings because of this, I expected his development to be slow.

Another example would be Jeremy Hill who I did not like much as a rookie prospect. He absolutely outperformed my expectations of him as a rookie. He moved way up on peoples boards over the offseason and mine as well. However it was only one year so I still was not willing to move him up as much as I think most folks did. Now Hill thus far this season has been playing more like I expected him to, so closer to my original ranking of him at this point than if I were to rank him during the offseason.

So while I think it is important to react to new data. I also do not want to completely throw out my previous evaluations that are meant to play out over the next 3 seasons.

I haven't looked at my rookie rankings for awhile but here is the last list I made on May 3rd shortly after the draft.

May 3rd post NFL draft rankings

Tier 1a will contend for a top 12 season within the first three seasons.


RB Todd Gurley 21 pick 10 Rams
WR Amari Cooper 20 pick 4 Raiders
RB Melvin Gordon 22 pick 15 Chargers
WR DeVante Parker 22 pick 14 Dolphins
WR Kevin White 22 pick 7 Bears


Tier 1b could contend for a top 12 season within the first three seasons, but most likely only top 24 production.


RB Ameer Abdullah 21 pick 54 Lions
RB Tevin Coleman 22 pick 73 Falcons
WR Phillip Dorsett 22 pick 29 Colts
WR Dorial Green-Beckham 22 pick 40 Titans
RB TJ Yeldon 21 pick 36 Jaguars
WR Nelson Agholor 21 pick 20 Eagles
WR Breshad Perriman 21 pick 26 Ravens
QB Marcus Mariota 21 pick 2 Titans
QB Jameis Winston 21 pick 1 Bucs


Tier 2 these players I expect to be capable of finishing top 24 at their position but not top 12.


WR Tyler Lockett 22 pick 69 Seahawks
WR Devin Smith 23 pick 37 Jets
WR Devin Funchess 21 pick 41 Panthers
RB Duke Johnson 21 pick 77 Browns
WR Jaelen Strong 21 pick 70 Texans
RB Jay Ajayi 21 pick 149 Dolphins
TE Maxx Williams 21 pick 55 Ravens
WR Sammie Coates 22 pick 87 Steelers
QB Garrett Grayson pick 75 Saints
RB David Johnson 23 pick 86 Cardinals
RB Cameron Artis-Payne 23 pick 174 Panthers
WR Chris Conley 22 pick 76 Chiefs
RB Jeremy Langford 23 pick 106 Bears
TE Clive Walford 23 pick 68 Raiders
QB Bryce Petty pick 103 Jets
QB Brett Hundley 21 pick 147 Packers
RB Javorius Allen 23 pick 125 Ravens
WR Justin Hardy pick 107 Falcons
RB David Cobb 21 pick 138 Titans
RB Mike Davis 22 pick 126 49ers
RB Matt Jones pick 95 Redskins
RB Josh Robinson pick 205 Colts
WR Ty Montgomery pick 94 Packers


Tier 3 these players I expect to be fringe starters or watch list players.

WR Kenny Bell 23 pick 162 Buccaneers
WR Rashad Greene 22 pick 139 Jaguars
WR DeAndre Smelter pick 132 49ers
WR Tre McBride 22 pick 245 Titans
WR Stefon Diggs pick 146 Vikings
WR Darren Waller pick 204 Ravens
WR Austin Hill 24 UFA Seahawks
QB Sean Mannion pick 89 Rams
RB Karlos Williams pick 155 Bills
TE Jeff Heurman pick 92 Broncos
TE Tyler Kroft pick 85 Bengals
TE MyCole Pruitt pick 143 Vikings
WR Tony Lippett pick 156 Dolphins
RB Trey Williams 22
WR Devante Davis UDFA Eagles
WR John Harris
WR Titus Davis
RB Michael Dyer
RB Malcolm Brown 21
Rb Terrence Magee
WR Corey Grant
RB Akeem Hunt
WR Jamison Crowder 21
RB Malcolm Agnew
WR DaRon Brown

Obviously Diggs would move up into my second tier of players. I did have him at the top of my tier 3 prospects but he moved down post draft when I accounted for draft position and opportunity. Other than that I don't see much need for changes based off what has happened so far.

Perhaps Matt Jones should be higher but I didn't have a good evaluation on him and I still haven't really taken the time to do that with him yet. Karlos Williams should be in tier 2 as well. Those were a couple players I didn't know much about at the time of this ranking.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Tool said:
Denver724 said:
Papa John said:
Denver724 said:
mr roboto said:
stuckinthemuck said:
Tier I

Gurley

Cooper

Tier II

White

Parker

Jameis Winston

Diggs (Yes, drink the Kool-Aid)

Tier III

Marcus Mariota

Tyler Lockett

Perriman

Yeldon

David Johnson

Phillip Dorsett

Duke Johnson

Agholor

Gordon

Tevin Coleman

Tier IV

Abdullah (Major bust potential)

Matt Jones

Montgomery

DGB
Click to expand...
Where's Karlos Williams in your mind?
Click to expand...
Lots of potential, but this concussion is very concerning. I read today that it is getting worse not better. Is his career already in jeopardy? I hope not, but it will be almost a month very soon. I can see the team putting him on IR fairly soon if he isn't showing progress.
Click to expand...
Cite?
Click to expand...
Twitter

Zach Jezioro ‏@ZachJezioro_9 Oct 29

Now Karlos Williams concussion is now worse than normal according to @BillsFanaticsBF. Not good. #Bills
Click to expand...
Wow, after already being out 4 or 5 weeks. Yikes.
Click to expand...
Hard to believe, but it would be nice to have some news one way or another.

 
I had to dig a bit to find it. Here is my May 15 2014 rookie rankings. There has been enough time passed to actually make some calls on these players now.

3rd version- 15 May

tIER 1

WR Sammy Watkins 4 BUF 20
WR Mike Evans 7 TAM 20
TE Eric Ebron 10 DET 21 - I ranked him too high. I do still like him and this he can be a TE 1
RB Bishop Sankey 54 TEN 21 - I ranked him too high. I actually believe in his talent still that I would like to see him in a situation where he actually got the opportunity to be a starter.
WR Brandin Cooks 20 NO 20
WR Odell Beckham 12 Jr. NYG 21
WR Marqise Lee 39 JAX 22 - I ranked him too high. Lee has not seemed to be interested in being healthy or playing football since he came into the league.
WR Jordan Matthews 42 PHI 21
QB Teddy Bridgewater 32 MIN 21
WR Kelvin Benjamin 28 CAR 23
WR Davonte Adams 53 GB 21
WR Allen Robinson 61 JAX 20

Tier 2

QB Johnny Manziel 22 CLE 21 - Wow.
TE Jace Amaro 49 NYJ 21 - They have receivers now.
QB Blake Bortles 3 JAX 22
WR Donte Moncrief 90 IND 20
WR Cody Latimer 56 DEN 21 - I was always a bit skeptical of this guy as a late riser in the pre draft process.
RB Carlos Hyde 57 SF 22
RB Devonta Freeman 103 ATL 22 - Prior to this season Freeman had been fading in my eyes from how I valued him back then, which was pretty close to Hyde.
RB Andre Williams 113 NYG 21 - Hasn't worked out. I let his combine jump numbers influence my idea of his potential explosiveness as a RB.
QB Derek Carr 36 OAK 23
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins 38 TB 21
RB Charles Sims 69 TAM 23
RB Tre Mason 75 STL 20
RB Jeremy Hill 55 CIN 21

Tier 3

WR Jarvis Landry 63 MIA 21 - Has moved up because of performance.
WR Martavis Bryant 118 PIT 22 - Has moved up because of performance.
RB Terrance West 94 CLE 23
QB Jimmy Garoppolo 62 NEP 22
RB Jerick McKinnon 96 MIN 22
WR Paul Richardson 45 SEA 22
RB Lache Seastrunk 186 WAS 22 - Out of the league.
WR Robert Herron 185 TAM
QB Logan Thomas 120 ARI 22
RB Isaiah Crowell UDFA CLE 21
RB Damien Williams UDFA MIA
WR Jared Abbrederis 176 GB
QB David Fales 183 CHI 23
RB James White 130 NE 22
RB Storm Johnson 222 JAX 21

Watch list

QB Brett Smith UFA TAM 21
QB Tajh Boyd 213 NYJ
TE Richard Rodgers 98 GB
WR Josh Huff 86 PHI 22
RB Marion Grice 201 SD
WR Bruce Ellington 106 SF
WR Dri Archer 97 PIT
TE A.C Leonard UFA MIN
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro 138 BAL
RB KaDeem Carey 117 CHI 21
QB Aaron Murray 163 KC 23

WR Kevin Norwood 123 SEA
WR Brandon Coleman UFA NO
TE C.J. Fiedorowicz 65 HOU
WR Jeff Janis 236 GB
QB Garrett Gilbert 214 STL
TE Crockett Gillmore 99 BAL
WR John Brown 91 ARI - Perhaps my worst ranking of 2014. Similar to Matt Jones I didn't know about this guy prior to the draft. So it took some time before I learned about him.
WR Shaquelle Evans 115 NYJ
WR Matt Hazel 190 MIA
60 WR Michael Campanaro 218 BAL
WR Ryan Grant 142 WAS
WR Delvin Street 146 DAL
WR Matt Hazel 190 MIA
TE Arthur Lynch 155 MIA
RB Alfred Blue 181 HOU
WR TJ Jones 189 DET
QB Keith Wenning 194 BAL
WR Walt Powell 196 ARI
RB Tyler Gafney 204 CAR
QB Bryn Renner UFA DEN
WR Quincy Enunwa 209 NYJ
RB DeAnthony Thomas 124 KC
WR Jalen Saunders 104 NYJ
RB Stephen Houston
WR Cody Hoffman
WR Mike Davis
TE Colt Lyerla
 
Uncle Grandpa said:
Well, we've had 6 weeks to examine some of the 2015 rookies. I'd be interested to see how the overall opinion has changed since Biabreakable pulled together his rookie polls in the offseason. Here is the consensus top 12 PPR rookies per BB's polls:

1.01 RB Todd Gurley (63.6%)

1.02 WR Amari Cooper (62.3%)

1.03 RB Melvin Gordon (72%)

1.04 WR Kevin White (84.1%)

1.05 WR DeVante Parker (75%)

1.06 WR Nelson Agholor (45.4%)

1.07RB Ameer Abdullah (31.3%)

1.08 RB TJ Yeldon (41.1%)

1.09 WR Breshad Perriman (40.2%)

1.10 WR Dorial Green-Beckham (39.5%)

1.11 RB Tevin Coleman (53%)

1.12 WR Phillip Dorsett (41%)

Here's how I'd rank them today:

1. Gurley

2. Cooper

3. Yeldon

4. Abdullah

5. White

6. Gordon

7. Perriman

8. Diggs

9. Parker

10. David Johnson

11. Duke Johnson

12. Montgomery

Honorable mention: Green-Beckham, Mariota, Lockett

What's your list look like?
Click to expand...
Winston isn't even worth a mention? What's the reasoning?

 
I'll take Winston over Mariota easily at this point. It was close before but I was expecting Mariota to do a lot more with his legs. He hasn't and I think he needs too to be more valuable in fantasy.

 
ryno1980 said:
Well, we've had 6 weeks to examine some of the 2015 rookies. I'd be interested to see how the overall opinion has changed since Biabreakable pulled together his rookie polls in the offseason. Here is the consensus top 12 PPR rookies per BB's polls:
1.01 RB Todd Gurley (63.6%)
1.02 WR Amari Cooper (62.3%)
1.03 RB Melvin Gordon (72%)
1.04 WR Kevin White (84.1%)
1.05 WR DeVante Parker (75%)
1.06 WR Nelson Agholor (45.4%)
1.07RB Ameer Abdullah (31.3%)
1.08 RB TJ Yeldon (41.1%)
1.09 WR Breshad Perriman (40.2%)
1.10 WR Dorial Green-Beckham (39.5%)
1.11 RB Tevin Coleman (53%)
1.12 WR Phillip Dorsett (41%)
Here's how I'd rank them today:
1. Gurley
2. Cooper
3. Yeldon
4. Abdullah
5. White
6. Gordon
7. Perriman
8. Diggs
9. Parker
10. David Johnson
11. Duke Johnson
12. Montgomery
Honorable mention: Green-Beckham, Mariota, Lockett
What's your list look like?






 
Click to expand...


Biabreakable said:
Great topic UG

May 3rd post NFL draft rankings
 
Tier 1a will contend for a top 12 season within the first three seasons.
RB Todd Gurley 21 pick 10 Rams
WR Amari Cooper 20 pick 4 Raiders
RB Melvin Gordon 22 pick 15 Chargers
WR DeVante Parker 22 pick 14 Dolphins
WR Kevin White 22 pick 7 Bears
 
Tier 1b could contend for a top 12 season within the first three seasons, but most likely only top 24 production.
RB Ameer Abdullah 21 pick 54 Lions
RB Tevin Coleman 22 pick 73 Falcons
WR Phillip Dorsett 22 pick 29 Colts
WR Dorial Green-Beckham 22 pick 40 Titans
RB TJ Yeldon 21 pick 36 Jaguars
WR Nelson Agholor 21 pick 20 Eagles
WR Breshad Perriman 21 pick 26 Ravens
QB Marcus Mariota 21 pick 2 Titans
QB Jameis Winston 21 pick 1 Bucs
 
Tier 2 these players I expect to be capable of finishing top 24 at their position but not top 12. 
WR Tyler Lockett 22 pick 69 Seahawks
WR Devin Smith 23 pick 37 Jets
WR Devin Funchess 21 pick 41 Panthers
RB Duke Johnson 21 pick 77 Browns
WR Jaelen Strong 21 pick 70 Texans
RB Jay Ajayi 21 pick 149 Dolphins
TE Maxx Williams 21 pick 55 Ravens
WR Sammie Coates 22 pick 87 Steelers
QB Garrett Grayson pick 75 Saints
RB David Johnson 23 pick 86 Cardinals
RB Cameron Artis-Payne 23 pick 174 Panthers
WR Chris Conley 22 pick 76 Chiefs
RB Jeremy Langford 23 pick 106 Bears
TE Clive Walford 23 pick 68 Raiders
QB Bryce Petty pick 103 Jets
QB Brett Hundley 21 pick 147 Packers
RB Javorius Allen 23 pick 125 Ravens
WR Justin Hardy pick 107 Falcons
RB David Cobb 21 pick 138 Titans
RB Mike Davis 22 pick 126 49ers
RB Matt Jones pick 95 Redskins
RB Josh Robinson pick 205 Colts
WR Ty Montgomery pick 94 Packers
 
Tier 3 these players I expect to be fringe starters or watch list players. 
WR Kenny Bell 23 pick 162 Buccaneers
WR Rashad Greene 22 pick 139 Jaguars
WR DeAndre Smelter pick 132 49ers
WR Tre McBride 22 pick 245 Titans
WR Stefon Diggs pick 146 Vikings
WR Darren Waller pick 204 Ravens
WR Austin Hill 24 UFA Seahawks
QB Sean Mannion pick 89 Rams
RB Karlos Williams pick 155 Bills
TE Jeff Heurman pick 92 Broncos
TE Tyler Kroft pick 85 Bengals
TE MyCole Pruitt  pick 143 Vikings
WR Tony Lippett pick 156 Dolphins
RB Trey Williams 22
WR Devante Davis UDFA Eagles
WR John Harris
WR Titus Davis
RB Michael Dyer
RB Malcolm Brown 21
Rb Terrence Magee
WR Corey Grant
RB Akeem Hunt
WR Jamison Crowder 21
RB Malcolm Agnew
WR DaRon Brown




4
Click to expand...
This was after 6 games.

Season is over and we've had enough time to digest their rookie seasons.

Where would you rank last year's rookie class today?

 
Good question Bracie.

For the most part nothing has changed.except I would move Lockett up as I already did when I updated the list. Diggs should be a tier 2 player. That is for the most part it.

I think the QB were a bit more valuable than where I have them ranked. I know I had both of them higher before.

Gordon I would like to see for a second season before deciding on him. As of now I am a bit disappointed, but I still think he could be very good,

 
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